IATSS Research 45 (2021) 12–18

Contents lists available at ScienceDirect

IATSS Research

Case Study

Future of road safety and SDG 3.6 goals in six Indian cities
Dinesh Mohan ⁎, Abhaya Jha, Samradh S. Chauhan
Transportation Research & Injury Prevention Programme, Indian Institute of Technology Delhi, India

a r t i c l e i n f o a b s t r a c t

Article history: In this paper, we use estimates of the effectiveness of existing road safety technologies and interventions to es-
Received 22 July 2020 timate the reduction in road safety deaths in six Indian cities over the next decade, in order to achieve the SDG
Received in revised form 21 November 2020 3.6 goal of a 50% reduction by 2030. Only the existing interventions are considered and technologies that
Accepted 24 January 2021
might be available in the future are not accounted for. The results show that similar policies for all cities will
Available online 29 January 2021
not produce the same results, and that achieving the SDG 3.6 goal does not automatically reduce fatality rates
Keywords:
in cities with high fatality rates. The introduction of safer cars with currently available safety technologies, al-
Road safety though necessary, will have much less effect than the combined effect of motorcycle safety technologies, speed
India control and traffic calming. This study suggests that while SDG 3.6 targets may be satisfied by 2030 with great
Safety interventions effort in India, the presently available safety interventions may not be adequate to bring about death rates
Cities below 2.0 per hundred thousand persons. Since the situation differs significantly between cities, it will be impor-
Sustainable development goals tant to evolve city-specific policies for safety intervention priorities and changes in travel behavior. The desired
reduction in road traffic injuries in India will not be possible without much greater investment in road safety re-
search and road design for safer travel.
© 2021 International Association of Traffic and Safety Sciences. Production and hosting by Elsevier Ltd. This is an
open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/).

1. Introduction
The World Health Organization (WHO) released its World Report on
Road Traffic Injury Prevention in 2004 [1]. This report included a sum-
mary of the known risk factors associated with road traffic crashes
and possible countermeasures required to address the problem. The
publication of this report spurred some national and international agen-
cies and NGOs to pay more attention to the problem of road safety. Since
then, a number of resolutions have been passed by the United Nations
General Assembly, World Health Assembly, and the Executive Board of
the WHO [2–6]. In March 2010 the General Assembly of the United Na-
tions adopted resolution 64/2551 proclaiming 2011–2020 the Decade of
Action for road safety, with a global goal of stabilizing and then reducing
the forecasted level of global road fatalities by increasing activities at na-
tional, regional, and global levels [6]. Since then, three Global Ministerial
Conferences on Road Safety have been held in Moscow (19–20 Novem-
ber 2009), Brasilia (18–19 November 2015), and Stockholm (19–20
February 2020).
The WHO has published four Global Status Reports on Road Safety in
2009, 2013, 2015, and 2018 [7]. These reports provide a broad assessment
of the status of road safety in approximately 180 countries. On 6 July 2017,
the General Assembly of the United Nations adopted a resolution that
⁎ Corresponding author.
E-mail address: dineshmohan@outlook.com (D. Mohan).
Peer review under responsibility of International Association of Traffic and Safety Sciences.
included the global indicator framework for the Sustainable Develop-
ment Goals and Targets of the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development
(Resolution 71/313) as a voluntary and country-led instrument that in-
cludes the initial set of indicators to be refined annually [8]. Goal 3 and tar-
get 3.6 of these indicators state “by 2020, halve the number of global
deaths and injuries from road traffic accidents.” The goals and targets in
the Appendix of theResolution are precededbya statement that “Sustain-
able Development Goal indicators should be disaggregated, where rele-
vant, by income, sex, age, race, ethnicity, migratory status, disability and
geographic location, or other characteristics…” This suggests that not
only should the death rates due to road traffic injury (RTI) be halved glob-
ally, but also in all countries and every region of a country. However, the
2018 Global Status Reports on Road Safety states that “The data presented
in this report show that progress has been achieved in important areas
such as legislation, vehicle standards and improving access to post-
crash care. This progress has not, however, occurred at a pace fast enough
to compensate for the rising population and rapid motorization of trans-
port taking place in many parts of the world. At this rate, the Sustainable
Development Goals (SDG) target 3.6 to halve road traffic deaths by
2020 will not be met.”
In recognition of the fact that SDG target 3.6 will not be met by the
end of 2020, the Stockholm Declaration adopted at the Third Global
Ministerial Conference on Road Safety—Achieving Global Goals 2030
calls upon member states to “contribute to reducing road traffic deaths
by at least 50% from 2020 to 2030 in line with the United Nations High-
Level Political Forum on Sustainable Development's pledge to continue
action on the road safety related SDG targets, including SDG 3.6 after

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.iatssr.2021.01.004
0386-1112/© 2021 International Association of Traffic and Safety Sciences. Production and hosting by Elsevier Ltd. This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license (http://
creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/).
D. Mohan, A. Jha and S.S. Chauhan
2020, and to set targets to reduce fatalities and serious injuries, in line
with this commitment, for all groups of road users and especially vul-
nerable road users such as pedestrians, cyclists and motorcyclists and
users of public transport” [9].
To reduce deaths due to RTI, we should be able to predict the effec-
tiveness of various interventions and then prioritize them to optimize
our efforts in every location. In 2003, Noland [10] analyzed RTI data col-
lected from all 50 states in the US over 14 years to understand the effect
of infrastructural changes on deaths and injuries. The results strongly
refuted the hypothesis that infrastructure improvements have been ef-
fective in reducing total fatalities and injuries and showed that other ef-
fects including demographic changes, increased seat-belt use, reduced
alcohol consumption, and increases in medical technology accounted
for a large share of overall reductions in fatalities. Safer cars have had
a major role in reducing RTI fatality rates among car occupants over
the past forty years in countries where vehicle occupants comprise a
majority of RTI victims. Estimates for the US suggest that the fatality
risk in the average car or light transport vehicles in 2012 was 56%
lower than that in in 1960, even given the same exposure, drivers, road-
ways, and medicine [11].
Over the past few decades, a large number of systematic reviews of
road safety literature have been published, which provide us with
more reliable estimates of the effectiveness of various road safety inter-
ventions [12–14]. Bhalla et al. [15] have used such estimates to under-
stand the effects of vehicle safety design on road traffic deaths,
injuries, and the associated public health burden in the Latin American
region.
In this paper, we use estimates of the effectiveness of existing road
safety technologies and interventions to estimate the reduction in
road safety deaths in six Indian cities over the next decade. Only the
existing interventions are considered and technologies that might be
available in the future are not accounted for. This paper attempts to pro-
ject the effectiveness of the countermeasures that can be taken to local-
ize SDG 3.6 and to reduce the road traffic fatalities in two metropolitan
cities (population > 10 million: Delhi and Mumbai), two medium sized
cities (population 1–2 million: Agra and Vishakhapatnam) and two
small cities (population < 500,000: Patiala and Bulandshahr). These cit-
ies were selected because we had collected victim related data from
these cities as a part of some earlier projects. Such data are not available
from other cities in the public domain.
This is not a research paper but a case study. No attempt has been
made to include a comprehensive background and literature search.
The objective of this paper was to do a relatively simple analysis to get
some indications for trends in the future as indicators since some de-
tailed background statistics for a more comprehensive modelling
study are not available for these cities.
2. Methods
2.1. City population
The 2011 population of each city is available from the Census of India
2011 [16]. The Office of the Registrar General & Census Commissioner,
India, has published a report that estimates the population of every
state in India for each year for the period 2001–2026 [17]. The individual
state estimates for the years 2019 and 2025 have been used to project
the populations for the cities in the respective states for the years
2019 and 2025. The average estimated growth rate for the period
2024–2026 has been used to extrapolate the population for each city
for the year 2030. The cities selected for this study are shown with
their population in Table 1.
2.2. Scenario development
Based on the data collected, five scenarios were developed to local-
ize the goals sets by SDG 3.6 for the year 2030. For the first scenario
13
IATSS Research 45 (2021) 12–18
Table 1
Cities included in study.
City Population in 2019 (in million)
Delhi 21.03
Mumbai 20.30
Vishakhapatnam 1.84
Agra 1.02
Patiala 0.55
Bulandshahr 0.29
(business as usual – BAU) it is assumed that no new interventions are
introduced over the next ten years. Other scenarios take into account
the listed interventions additively and show the percentage reduction
in fatal crashes resulting from each intervention. The five scenarios are:
• Business as usual (BAU).
• Scenario 1 – Introduction of presently legislated vehicle safety tech-
nologies only.
• Scenario 2 - Vehicle safety technologies + seatbelt and helmet en-
forcement.
• Scenario 3 - Vehicle safety technologies + seatbelt and helmet en-
forcement + road infrastructure changes (including traffic calming
and speed control measures).
• Scenario 4 - Vehicle safety technologies + seatbelt and helmet en-
forcement + road infrastructure changes + driving under influence
(DUI) enforcement.
The BAU scenario was calculated projecting the fatality rates to 2030
without taking into consideration any new vehicle technology interven-
tion after 2020.
2.3. Road traffic injury fatality data
Reliable statistics and details for RTI fatalities by road user type for
individual cities are not available in national or local government reports
in India [18,19]. The RTI fatality data by road user type for each city were
obtained as follows:
• Delhi – Delhi police department files (personal communication).
• Mumbai – Detailed study published by Bloomberg Philanthropies Ini-
tiative for Global Road Safety [20].
• Agra, Vishakhapatnam, Bulandshahr, Patiala - Researchers visited all
the police stations in each city and placed requests for copies of First
Information Reports (FIRs) detailing fatal road traffic crashes for a pe-
riod of three years. The data from these records were coded onto acci-
dent recording forms designed specifically for this project. The data
from these forms were then entered into spreadsheets for computer
analysis.
For business as usual (BAU) Scenario, fatalities for each road user
type for 2019, 2025 and 2030 were estimated for vehicle occupants by
extrapolating occupant deaths per unit vehicle for each one of those
years from the base years when data were collected. For pedestrians
the estimates were based on fatalities per unit population.
2.4. Vehicle fleet
The official vehicle registration data in India over-represents the
number of passenger vehicles and motorized two wheelers in actual op-
eration because personal vehicles that are no longer in use due to age or
other reasons are very often not removed from the records. This is be-
cause personal vehicle owners pay a lifetime tax when they buy a car
and many do not de-register their vehicles when they scrap them. The
actual number of motorized two-wheelers (MTW) and cars on the
road in India are estimated to be 45% and 51% respectively of those
D. Mohan, A. Jha and S.S. Chauhan IATSS Research 45 (2021) 12–18

Table 2 and 6%, respectively, were used to estimate the total number of vehicles
Effectiveness of vehicle safety technologies. in each city in 2019, 2025, and 2030. In the case of commercial vehicles,
Intervention Effectiveness(%) Reference which require a yearly certificate of fitness from the transport authori-
Antilock Braking System (ABS) (MTW) 12.5 [26]
ties, the numbers as reported by the government sources were used.
Antilock Braking System (ABS) (MTW) 13.0 [15] For Patiala and Bulandshahr vehicle statistics were available at the dis-
Antilock Braking System (ABS) (Car) 2.8 [15] trict level, and these were adjusted for the populations of the cities.
Antilock Braking System (ABS) (Car + MTW) 9.6 [15] Buses of all sizes are grouped in the Bus category, and all trucks
Electronic Stability Control (ESC) 19.4 [15]
(light, medium, and heavy duty trucks) are in the Truck category. The
Airbags 3.2 [15]
Front Pedestrian Protection (Car) 6.0 [15] category for cars consists of both passenger and commercial (taxi)
Crashworthiness (Car) 28.1 [15] four wheeled vehicles. Agricultural vehicles, construction vehicles, and
three-wheeled scooter taxis (TSR) are grouped into the Others category.
The Ministry of Road Transport and Highways (Government of
India) prescribed that the front seats of all motor vehicles must be
equipped with lap and shoulder belts with effect from 1 April 1994
Table 3
[24]. Three-wheelers with an engine capacity of less than 500 cc were
Effectiveness of police enforcement.
exempted. All vehicles sold in India after this date have been equipped
Intervention Effectiveness (%) Reference with seat belts in the front seats. Installation of seat belts on all rear
Seatbelts (Car) 12.1 [15] seats in cars was mandated in September 2002. Current vehicle safety
Helmets (MTW) 42.0 [27] devices include mandatory crashworthiness standards, and MTW day-
Helmets (MTW) 37.3 [28] light running lights and combined braking as mandated by the
DUI 8.70 [29]
amended Motor Vehicle Act of 2019, Government of India. The govern-
ment made crashworthiness standards mandatory for all new model
cars from October 2017, and for existing models from October 2019.
The new minimum safety standards, including frontal and side crash
Table 4 tests, apply to all cars. The cars are tested for the offset frontal crash
Effectiveness of road infrastructure improvement. standard at 56 km/h, and at 50 km/h for the side crash test. In general,
Intervention Effectiveness (%) Reference these crash test standards cannot be met without the cars being
Speed Humps 59.0 [29]
equipped with airbags for front seat occupants. The Ministry of Road
Speed Limit Enforcement 52.6 [30] Transport and Highways mandated that all new MTW sold after 1
Speed humps of trapeze shape 100.0 [31] April 2017 be equipped with an Automatic Headlamp On (AHO) feature
Raised pedestrian crossings 83.0 [31] (similar to daytime running lamps (DRLs)). Anti-lock braking systems
Speed humps 73.0 [31]
(ABS) were made mandatory for all new MTW with an engine capacity
Red Light Camera 22.5 [32]
Section Control 56.0 [33] above 125 cc, and the combined braking system (CBS) was made man-
Section Control 49.0 [34] datory for those below 125 cc, with effect from 1 April 2018. The num-
Fixed Speed Camera 51.0 [35] ber of vehicles produced after 2019 and the proportion of these in the
Fixed Speed Camera 17.0 [36] fleet in subsequent years will determine the effectiveness in terms of
Roundabout 73.0 [37]
the lives saved due to these devices. The proportions of vehicles in the
fleet with these new technologies were estimated for the years 2019,
2025, and 2030. The effect of the technologies in reducing RTI fatalities
registered [21,22]. To account for the actual number of cars and MTW in have been estimated in Scenario 1.
the total vehicle fleet of each city, the survival function of the two modes In Scenario 2, we add the effect of seat belt and helmet use enforce-
of transport was estimated using the Weibull decay function [23] and ment by the police authorities at an 80% level in 2025, and at 95% by the
the actual population of MTW and passenger cars estimated. The last year 2030. The percent levels indicate the proportion of respective road
ten years average growth rates for MTW and passenger cars of 10% users wearing helmets and seatbelts. Enforcement of these regulations

Table 5
Estimated population and vehicle numbers in 2019, 2025, and 2030.

Year Population Vehicles, number

MTW Car Bus / Truck Others Total

Delhi 2019 21,032,569 2,927,195 1,477,583 365,926 106,749 4,877,453

2025 24,754,401 5,111,406 2,242,496 479,054 59,506 7,892,463
2030 27,470,898 8,231,220 3,144,972 599,927 36,565 12,012,684
Mumbai 2019 20,299,714 1,011,712 602,579 69,517 122,323 1,806,131
2025 21,579,652 1,780,260 843,301 85,875 66,656 2,776,092
2030 22,352,659 2,866,814 1,076,347 102,664 40,190 4,086,015
Agra 2019 1,802,024 237,817 63,389 18,670 56,294 376,170
2025 1,944,842 345,334 105,186 24,271 69,628 544,420
2030 2,025,981 556,223 147,655 30,236 83,123 817,238
Vishakha-patnam 2019 1,842,235 234,689 112,340 17,255 36,735 401,018
2025 1,909,659 428,972 204,450 19,156 24,424 677,003
2030 1,945,559 690,876 286,924 21,072 17,383 1,016,254
Buland-shahr 2019 285,250 37,645 10,034 1587 10,241 59,507
2025 334,956 59,476 18,116 2132 11,068 90,792
2030 370,856 99,633 26,449 2728 11,905 140,715
Patiala 2019 545,315 77,627 19,182 2938 18,962 118,709
2025 649,658 139,045 35,137 3467 10,209 187,857
2030 719,219 221,868 51,292 4090 12,611 289,860

14
D. Mohan, A. Jha and S.S. Chauhan IATSS Research 45 (2021) 12–18

is the responsibility of the authorities of each state and city. In 2019, Table 7
seatbelt and helmet use was enforced in the metropolitan cities (Delhi Estimated total RTI fatalities in 2019, 2025, and 2030 for the five scenarios.

and Mumbai), but in the other cities the enforcement levels were very City Year Estimated total RTI fatalities
low [25]. It has been assumed that effectiveness of enforcement in Scenario
Delhi and Mumbai was at a level of 60%, but was less than 10% in
BAU 1 2 3 4
other cities. Use of seatbelts in airbag equipped cars has been associated
with fatality reduction, because non-use even in cars equipped with Delhi 2019 1719 1719 1719 1719 1719
2025 2390 1904 1846 1383 1276
airbags can result in higher injury rates. The influence of seatbelt use
2030 3113 2438 2300 1262 1153
has not been included for buses and trucks as the effectiveness for the Mumbai 2019 448 448 448 448 448
same were not available. This should not make a significant difference 2025 480 421 421 315 291
in our results because the occupant fatality rates constitute a small pro- 2030 521 451 448 246 225
portion of total deaths. Agra 2019 680 680 680 680 680
2025 733 620 576 432 398
Scenario 3 explores changes in the road infrastructure to promote
2030 800 669 578 317 290
safer mobility. These changes are also the responsibility of city and Vishakhapatnam 2019 320 320 320 320 320
state governments. They have been subdivided into two categories: 2025 332 281 261 196 181
the conversion of junctions into roundabouts, and traffic calming and 2030 346 292 251 138 126
speed control infrastructure. The effectiveness of junction control infra- Bulandshahr 2019 21 21 21 21 21
2025 29 25 20 15 14
structure has been considered only for fatal crashes occurring at junc- 2030 39 32 25 14 13
tions; similarly, the effectiveness of speed control and traffic calming Patiala 2019 70 70 70 70 70
infrastructure has been considered for mid-block crashes. The fatality 2025 83 68 54 41 38
reduction in Scenario 3 is in addition to those estimated in Scenarios 1 2030 94 73 59 34 31
and 2. We have considered the improvement in the road infrastructure
to achieve 50% of the projected target in 2025 and 95% in 2030. The ef-
fect of speed reduction measures have been applied for all vehicles. We
safety devices. Table 7 shows that the estimated total RTI fatalities in
have estimated an average value for the effect of speed control including
2030 compared to 2019 reduces by 33%–61% in the six cities, with the
policing and infrastructure changes because do not have any detailed
decrease being less in the two metropolitan cities. The lower values of
crash data to apply different values for different measures.
33% and 50% occur in Delhi and Mumbai because the impact of helmet
Scenario 4 includes an additional reduction in fatal crashes due to
use and seat belt use laws would be less there. Table 8 shows the esti-
enforcement of Driving Under Influence (DUI) laws by police. From
mated total fatality rates per 100,000 population for cities in the years
global experience, we have observed that such enforcement is difficult
2019, 2025 and 2030, where the reduction in 2030 compared to 2019
for various reasons. Most DUI incidents happen in the evenings and
is 54%–68% over all the cities. However, the absolute values of the fatal-
night when there is a reduced police presence on the road. In addition,
ity rate in 2030 are estimated to be 13.7 and 6.3 in Agra and Visakhapat-
it is difficult for the police officer to visually assess the level of intoxica-
nam, respectively, but less than 4.2 in the other 4 cities.
tion of the driver without stopping the vehicle.
Figs. 1 and 2 show the estimated total RTI fatality reductions (in per-
cent) as compared to BAU in metropolitan cities, large cities, and small
2.5. Effectiveness of countermeasures cities. The percentage reduction in 2030 is calculated using as base the
estimated value of RTI fatalities in 2030 under the BAU scenario. Fig. 1
Effectiveness of the various interventions have been estimated from shows the trends for the two metropolitan cities (Mumbai and Delhi).
values published in systematic reviews. For every intervention, the av- In both cities, the effect of existing vehicle safety technologies (Scenario
erage value of its respective effectiveness was used for analysis. Tables 1) levels off after 2025 as a significant proportion of the vehicle fleet
2, 3, and 4 show the effectiveness values and the corresponding sources. would include the new safety features by 2025. Vehicle technologies
are predicted to reduce fatality rates by 13.5% in Mumbai and 21.7% in
3. Results Delhi. This relatively low effect of vehicle technologies is probably due

Table 5 shows the estimates of city population and number of vehi-

cles for the three target years in the six cities. In a period of ten years, the Table 8
number of vehicles is expected to increase by 217%–250% in all the cit- Estimated fatalities per 100,000 persons in 2019, 20,125 and 2030 for the five scenarios.
ies. The number of MTW increase at a greater rate in these cities than
City Year Fatalities per 100,000 persons Scenario
cars and other vehicles. This is probable because in a pyramidal income
structure, as incomes increase, the proportion of individuals graduating BAU 1 2 3 4

to MTW ownership is larger than that graduating to cars. Table 6 shows Delhi 2019 8.2 8.2 8.2 8.2 8.2
that the increase in ratio of MTW:Car in the two metropolitan cities is 2025 9.7 7.7 7.5 5.6 5.2
2030 10.2 8.0 7.5 4.1 3.8
greater than that in the smaller cities. This counters the effect of vehicle
Mumbai 2019 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.2
2025 2.2 2.0 1.9 1.5 1.3
2030 2.2 1.9 1.9 1.1 1.0
Table 6 Agra 2019 37.7 37.7 37.7 37.7 37.7
Ratio of number of MTW to cars in 2019 and 2030. 2025 37.7 31.9 29.6 22.2 20.5
2030 37.7 31.5 27.3 15.0 13.7
City MTW:Car ratio Vishakhapatnam 2019 17.3 17.3 17.3 17.3 17.3
2025 17.4 14.7 13.7 10.3 9.5
2019 2030
2030 17.4 14.7 12.6 6.9 6.3
Delhi 2.0 2.6 Bulandshahr 2019 7.2 7.2 7.2 7.2 7.2
Mumbai 1.7 2.7 2025 8.6 7.4 6.1 4.5 4.2
Agra 3.8 3.8 2030 10.2 8.4 6.6 3.6 3.3
Vishakhapatnam 2.1 2.4 Patiala 2019 12.8 12.8 12.8 12.8 12.8
Bulandshahr 3.8 3.8 2025 12.8 10.5 8.3 6.4 5.9
Patiala 4.0 4.3 2030 12.8 9.9 8.0 4.6 4.2

15
D. Mohan, A. Jha and S.S. Chauhan IATSS Research 45 (2021) 12–18

Mumbai Delhi
BAU Scenario 1 Scenario 2 Scenario 3 Scenario 4 BAU Scenario 1 Scenario 2 Scenario 3 Scenario 4
0% 0%

-10% -13.5 -10%

Reducon in RTI fatalies

-21.7
Reducon in RTI fatalies -20% -13.9
-20%

-30% -30%
-26.1
-40% -40%
-52.8
-50% -50%
-59.5
-60% -56.8 -60%
-63.0
-70% -70%
2019 2025 2030 2019 2025 2030
Year Year

Fig. 1. Reduction in road traffic fatalities in metropolitan cities (population > 10 million: Mumbai and Delhi) in 2025 and 2030 relative to business as usual.

to the fact that car fatalities constitute less than 10% of the total in both speed has a very significant impact on their safety. The additional influ-
cities. The effect in Delhi is larger than that in Mumbai because per ence of the enforcement of DUI laws (Scenario 4) is estimated to reduce
capita ownership of cars and MTW in Delhi is more than twice that in fatalities by only ~4%.
Mumbai. The effect of the enforcement of helmet and seat belt laws in Fig. 2 shows the trends in the two large (Agra and Vishakhapatnam—
both cities is relatively small as both laws are already being enforced population 1–2 million) and two small cities (Patiala and Bulandshahr—
in these cities. The effect of road infrastructure changes (including traffic population < 500,000 persons). The trends are similar in these four cit-
calming measures) and speed control (Scenario 3) has the most signif- ies, but slightly different from those in the two metropolitan cities in
icant influence, reducing fatalities by an extra 33.4%–38.9% in both cit- that the effect of enforcement of helmet and seatbelt use laws is much
ies. This is probably because in both cities vulnerable road users more significant in the former. This is mainly because these laws are
comprise more than 70% of the total fatalities, and a reduction in not being enforced effectively at present. However, these cities are

Agra Vishakhapatnam
BAU Scenario 1 Scenario 2 Scenario 3 Scenario 4 BAU Scenario 1 Scenario 2 Scenario 3 Scenario 4
0% 0%

-10% -10% -15.6

-16.4
Reducon in RTI fatalies
Reducon in RTI fatalies

-20% -20%

-30% -30%
-27.7 -27.4
-40% -40%

-50% -50%
-60.3 -60.2
-60% -60%
-63.8 -63.6
-70% -70%
2019 2025 2030 2019 2025 2030
Year Year

Bulandshahr Paala
BAU Scenario 1 Scenario 2 Scenario 3 Scenario 4 BAU Scenario 1 Scenario 2 Scenario 3 Scenario 4
0% 0%

-10% -10%
Reducon in RTI fatalies

-18.0
Reducon in RTI fatalies

-22.3
-20% -20%

-30% -34.5 -30%

-37.3
-40% -40%

-50% -50%

-60% -64.6 -60% -64.2

-70% -67.7 -70% -67.3

2019 2025 2030 2019 2025 2030
Year Year

Fig. 2. Reduction in road traffic fatalities in two large cities (population 1–2 million: Agra and Vishakhapatnam) and two small cities (population < 500,000: Agra and Patiala) in 2025 and
2030 relative to business as usual.

16
D. Mohan, A. Jha and S.S. Chauhan
similar to the two metropolitan cities in the relatively low effect of vehi-
cle safety technologies and the large effect of traffic calming and speed
control.
4. Discussion and conclusions
In this paper, we have attempted a thought exercise to estimate
trends in urban road traffic fatalities in Indian cities if most of the pres-
ently known road safety measures are implemented in the next decade.
The cities selected for this study are those for which RTI fatality data is
available by road user type. In the absence of reliable detailed statistical
data on vehicle numbers, populations, and road traffic crashes, we have
had to make many assumptions and extrapolations for missing data. We
have also assumed a simple growth rate of 7% per year in the economy
of India and an associated growth rate in vehicle population in the same
proportions as at present. We believe that the number of vehicles will
continue to grow in India over the next decade unless there is a decline
in the economy due to unforeseen reasons. In this exercise, we have not
assumed any modal share changes in how people travel in the cities se-
lected for this study. We have also not accounted for the influence of
safety in numbers [38], effect on road safety by changes in the demo-
graphic profile of drivers over the next decade, or the changes in aver-
age speeds in cities over time for the BAU estimates [39].
The estimates suggest that achieving the SDG 3.6 goal of a 50% re-
duction in RTI fatalities in Indian cities should be possible if all the pres-
ently known interventions are implemented. However, this will not
automatically result in low fatality rates in cities where the present
rates are high. While the estimated RTI fatality rates per 100,000 per-
sons in Delhi and Mumbai reduce from 8.2 and 2.2, respectively, in
2019 to 3.8 and 1.0 in 2030, those in Agra and Vishakhapatnam reduce
from 37.7 and 17.3 in 2019 to 17.3 and 6.3 in 2030. This shows that sim-
ilar policies for all cities will not produce the same results, and that the
SDG 3.6 goal of reducing death rates by 50% over the next decade will
not necessarily bring about low death rates everywhere.
Details of factors associated with RTI fatalities are not available for
the cities we have included in this exercise (or any other city in India),
and we are unable to ascribe any particular reasons for the very different
fatality rates in the six cities. The factors that may be responsible for the
differences in rates are different proportions of MTW in the fleet, en-
forcement of helmet laws, average speed differentials, and differences
in road infrastructure for vulnerable road users. The two metropolitan
cities have a smaller proportion of MTW in the fleet than the other
four smaller cities, which would also influence the fatality rate.
Figs. 1 and 2 show broadly similar trends for all the six cities. Vehicle
safety technologies (including changes in MTW) reduce fatality rates by
an estimated 16%–22%, seatbelt and helmet laws by another ~15% and
speed control and traffic calming by an additional 27%–38%. Car safety
technologies have much lower effect than the other technologies in all
the cities. The higher reduction in fatality rates is in Delhi and Patiala,
which have a slightly higher rate of car ownership than the other cities.
This is very different from the experience of Western European countries
and the USA, where vehicle safety has had a major impact in lowering RTI
rate over the past few decades. A recent evaluation of the effect of vehicle
safety design on road traffic deaths in the Latin American region suggest
that changes would result in a reduction of 28.1% in overall deaths [40].
The very low estimates for Indian cities are due to the fact that, in India,
car occupants comprise less than 10% of the road traffic deaths [41,42],
whereas in 2016, car passengers represented 40% of all road deaths in
high income countries [43]. These results show that the introduction of
safer cars with currently available safety technologies, although neces-
sary, cannot be depended upon to achieve SDG 3.6 targets.
Enforcement of seatbelt and helmet use laws decreases overall death
rates by more than 10% in all cities where the laws are not being
enforced at present. This is a relatively inexpensive intervention and
can be implemented even before 2025 in all cities in India, and should
be considered an important factor for achieving SDG 3.6 goals.
17
IATSS Research 45 (2021) 12–18
Indian streets are currently designed on a vehicle-centric model and
ignore the needs of pedestrians, cyclists, and MTW. These road users
constitute more than 70% of the victims in all cities in India. To achieve
reductions by implementing speed control and traffic calming methods,
short-term and long term policies will have to be made and supported
by requisite funds. Since the maximum impact in fatality reduction for
all the cities comes from these interventions, they should be prioritized
over the next decade.
Reduction in DUI or drunk driving is an important measure in reduc-
ing overall traffic crashes, but our estimates show very small extra re-
ductions in overall death rates. This could be because the effectiveness
data obtained from systematic reviews of literature comes from studies
done in high income countries where the base levels may have been low
to start with. At present, we are unable to provide a better estimate be-
cause no statistics are available for the actual number of RTI deaths due
to alcohol involvement in traffic crashes in India.
At present, the lowest death rates per 100,000 population are re-
ported from Norway, Sweden, and Switzerland at 2.0, 2.5, and 3.0, re-
spectively. Our estimates suggest that, except for Mumbai, all other
cities in India will experience much higher rates even after a decade. It
is possible that death rates in these cities may decline further with the
introduction of new speed control and enforcement technologies, the
adoption of more sustainable modes of travel, and the move away
from use of MTW.
This study suggests that while SDG 3.6 targets may be achieved by
2030 with great effort in India, the presently available safety interven-
tions may not be adequate to bring death rates below 2.0 per hundred
thousand persons. Since the situation differs significantly between cities,
it will be important to evolve city-specific policies for safety intervention
priorities and changes in travel behavior. The desired reductions in road
traffic injuries in India will not be possible without a much greater invest-
ment in road safety research and road design for safer travel.
Acknowledgement
The work was supported by a research grant from the International
Association of Traffic and Safety Sciences, Tokyo, Japan.
Geetam Tiwari and Girish Agrawal provided useful inputs through
the course of the study.
Mahesh Gaur provided logistics support.
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