REGIONAL CENTRE TRAINING INSTITUTE

COURSE: DIPLOMA IN LAND SURVEY

PROBABILITY THEORY
LECTURER: ALLAN GIKONYO
introduction
Probability is a numerical value between 0 and 1, inclusive of 0 and 1, that measures the likelihood
(chance/possibility) of an event to occur.
Probability can be expressed as a decimal value, fraction or as a percentage.

In business, probability is a useful tool in forecasting, planning, management, risk control,

inventory control, among other areas.

Self-Test:
Determine which numbers could not be used to represent the probability of an event.
A. , because probability values cannot be in fraction form.
B. , this is because probability values cannot be greater than 1.
C. , because probability values cannot be greater than 1.
D. , because probability values cannot be less than 0.
E. 0, because probability values must be greater than 0.
F. 2.5, this is because probability values cannot be greater than 1
G. 1, this is because probability values cannot be 1

Basic concepts
a) Experiment: a process or investigation from which results are observations and recorded
Example
 the process of rolling a fair die
 experiment of tossing a fair coin
 Investigation of testing whether a solution is acidic, basic or neutral
 Process of examining the output of a system to determine the proportion of
defectives etc.
b) Outcome: possible result of an experiment.
Example
Experiment 1 : Tossing a coin once
Outcome : Head or tail
Example 2
Experiment 2 : Rolling a fair die once
Outcome : 1,2,3,4,5 & 6
Self- Test
Experiment 3 : Picking 2 marbles, one at a time, from a bag that contains many
blue (B) and red marbles (R).
Outcome : ________________________

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 c) Sample space, S: The set / collection of all outcomes in an experiment.
NB) The set or collection is denoted by enclosing the list of outcome/ members in curly
brackets, {}. This is known as Roster notation (or enumeration notation) method.

Example 1
Experiment 1 : Tossing a coin once
Outcome : Head (H) or tail (T)
Sample Space : S= {H, T}
Example 2
Experiment 2 : Rolling a fair die
Outcome : 1,2,3,4,5 & 6
Sample Space : S= {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6}
Example 3
In the experiment of tossing two fair coins simultaneously, the sample space is
given by; S = {HH, HT, TH, TT}
Example 4
In the experiment of tossing three coins simultaneously, the sample space is;
S = {HHH, HHT, HTT, TTT, TTH, THH, THT, HTH,}

d) Event: Subset of a sample space.

Example 1
For instance, in the experiment of tossing a fair coin, an event occurs so that the “head” is
observed, but a different event occurs so that the “tail” is observed.
Example 2
Another instance, in the experiment of roll a single 6-sided die, an event occurs so that
“even number” is observed, but a different event occurs so that “a number that is divisible
by three” is observed.
Example 3
Experiment : tossing three coins simultaneously,
sample space, S : S = {HHH, HHT, HTT, TTT, TTH, THH, THT, HTH}
Event, E, of tossing at least TWO head : E= {HHH, HHT, THH, HTH}

Self - Test
1. Identify the sample space of the probability experiment and determine the number of outcomes
in the sample space.

In playing the game of roulette, where the wheel consists of slots numbered 00, 0, 1, 2, ..., 37
To play the game, a metal ball is spun around the wheel and is allowed to fall into one of the
numbered slots.
a. Identify the sample space. Tick correct answer below
A. The sample space is {00, 0}.
B. The sample space is {00}.
C. The sample space is {1, 2, ..., 37}.
D. The sample space is {00, 0, 1, 2, ..., 37}.
b. How many outcomes are in the sample space?

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2. Roll a single 6-sided die and consider the following two events:
 E: you get an even number
 T: you get a number that is divisible by three.
i) What is the number of outcome of event E.
ii) What is the number of outcome of event T.
iii) What is the number of outcome of rolling a 7.

Types of events
i) Elementary event: this is also referred to as an exhaustive event. It is an event that is
considered to occur after a single happening in an experiment. It is an event that cannot be
divided into sub-events, and once it occurs it exhausts the sample space i.e. once it occurs,
no other event can occur.
ii) Compound event: this is an event that is considered to occur after two or more happenings
in an experiment. Such an event can be divided into sub-events. E.g. the event of completing
building a house is compound and can be divided into sub-events of completing building the
walls, completing the roofing, completing the plastering etc.
iii) Mutually inclusive events: these are events that can occur simultaneously. E.g. when one
tosses two coins, the Head and the tail can occur simultaneously where the head is
observed on one coin and the tail on the other.
iv) Mutually exclusive events: these are events that cannot occur simultaneously. E.g. when
one tosses one coin, the Head and the tail cannot occur simultaneously.
v) Dependent events: these are events whereby the occurrence of one event affects/changes
the probability of occurrence of the other event(s).
vi) Independent events: these are events whereby the occurrence of one event does not
affect/change the probability of occurrence of the other event(s).
Self-Test
a) Classify the two events as independent or dependent.
A. Rolling a die twice
B. A father having hazel eyes and a daughter having hazel eyes
C. Selecting a queen from a standard deck, not replacing it, and then selecting a queen from
the deck
D. Not putting money in a parking meter and getting a parking ticket
E. Selecting a ball numbered 1 through 12 from a bin, replacing it, and then selecting a second
numbered ball from the bin
F. Tossing a coin and getting a head, and then rolling a six-sided die and obtaining a 6

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Probability rules/laws
Probability rules are generally broken down into two major categories;

  Addition rules
 Multiplication rules

NB: In the theory of probabilities, the word “or” implies addition, while the word “and “implies
multiplication.

Addition rules
General rule of addition

If A and B are two mutually inclusive events, then;

P(A or B) = P(A) + P(B) – P(A and B)

i.e. P(AuB) = P(A) + P(B) – P(AnB)

Special rule of addition

If A and B are two mutually inclusive events, then;

P (A or B) = P (AuB) = P (A) + P (B)

Since P(A and B) = P(AnB) = 0

Multiplication rules
General rule of multiplication

If A and B are two dependent events, then;

P (A and B) = P (AnB) = P (A).P (B/A)

= P (B).P (A/B)

Where; P (A and B) = P (AnB) : Joint probability of events A and B occurring together

P (A) : Marginal probability of event A occurring alone and independently

P (B/A) : Conditional probability of event B occurring given that event A

has already occurred.

Special rule of multiplication

If A and B are two independent events, then;

P (A and B) = P (AnB) = P (A).P (B)

Since P (A/B) = P (A)

And P (B/A) = P (B)

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Types of probability
Probabilities are broadly categorized into;

a) Subjective probability
b) Objective probability

Subjective probability
This is probability that is based on personal judgment, opinion or intuition. An individual considers
whatever information is available about the experiment at hand and declares the probability
required. This information may vary from one individual to another, causing the probability to vary
from one individual to another. Due to its subjectivity, this probability is not reliable, hence not
oftenly preferred. It is mostly used where no data is available at all regarding the experiment, or
where a very quick probability is required.

Objective probability
This is probability that is based on some data/information regarding the experiment at hand. Based
on the amount/type of information available, these probabilities are classified into;

i) Classical probability
ii) Empirical probability

Classical probability
This probability is also referred to as theoretical/prior probability. It is probability that is based on the
number of possible successful outcomes out of the total number of possible outcomes, number
of trials or sample size. E.g. Given an event E in an experiment.

Example 1

An accountant has a file that contains ten invoices out of which four have been found to have
procedural errors. The accountant selects an invoice at random from the file. The probability that
the selected invoice has a procedural error will be given by;
Solution

Self – Test 1
Roll a single 6-sided die and consider the following two events:
 E: you get an even number
 T: you get a number that is divisible by three.
i) What is the probability of event E
ii) What is the probability of event T
iii) What is the probability of rolling a 7

Self – Test 2
A box contains 10 purple, 15 indigo and 5 grey pegs. Three pegs are picked at random without
replacement. Find the probability that at least one grey peg is picked.
(Draw the probability tree diagram to show the probability space)

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