Introduction to

Probability
STAT-101/MATH-107
 Random Experiment:
A random experiment is a process which generates raw data. For
Example: tossing a coin, rolling a die, choosing a card from a deck and
drawing a ball from a bag containing balls of different colors are random
experiments. A random experiment has two properties in common.
 Firstly, each experiment has several possible outcomes which can be
described in advance. For Example: in tossing a coin, the possible
outcomes are head and tail.
 Secondly, we are not certain about the outcome or result of the
experiment. In tossing a coin, although the possible outcomes are a
head and a tail, but we are not certain whether it will be a head or a
tail.
Sample Space: Outcome:
The set or collection of all possible An Outcome is the particular result of an
outcomes of an experiment is called the Experiment.
sample space. It is denoted by S. Each For Example: If we toss a coin. The possible
element of sample space is called a sample outcomes are:
point. For Example: when we toss a coin,
the sample space is S= {H,T} and each of S={Head, Tail}
the elements H and T is a sample point.
And if select a card from a deck the possible
outcomes are 52:
 Event:
The possible outcome of an experiment is called an event. Thus an event is a subset of
the sample space S. Events are denoted by capital letters A,B,C,.... When an event
consists of only one sample point or outcomes, it is called a simple or elementary event.
If the event consists of more than one sample points, it is called a compound event.
When two coins are tossed, the event A={HH} that two heads appear is a simple event
but the event B={HT,TH}that one head appears is a compound event.
The sample space for the 2 coin tossing experiment.
S={HH,HT,TH,TT}
A={HH}
Simple Event

B={HT,TH,HH}
Compound Event
Mutually Excusive Events: Independent Events:
If the occurrence of an outcome prevents the Events are independent if the
occurrence of other outcomes, i.e. if one occurrence of one event does not
outcome occurs, others cannot occur, they affect the occurrence of another.
are called mutually exclusive outcomes. For
Example: we toss a coin, if head occurs the
tail cannot occurs. Thus they are mutually
exclusive. Similarly, if we roll a die and the
face 4 occurs, the other faces cannot come
up. Thus all the six faces of a die are
mutually exclusive.
Exhaustive Events:
Outcomes are said to be exhaustive if they
constitute the entire sample space. For
Example: if we toss a coin, the possible
outcomes are a head or a tail. There is no
other possibility the coin will not stand on
the edge. In rolling a cubical die, there are
six exhaustive outcomes, the spots
1,2,3,4,5,6.
S={1,2,3,4,5,6}
A={2,4,6} Even number C={6} 6 occurs
B={1,3,5} odd number D={1,2,3,4,5}
numer less than 6
AUB={1,2,3,4,5,6}=S
CUD={1,2,3,4,5,6}=S
Equally Likely Events:
When each outcome of a sample
space is as likely to occur as any
other, the outcomes are said to be
equally likely. For Example: if we
toss a fair coin, the head is as
likely to occur as the tail. These
are therefore, equally likely
outcomes. Similarly, if we roll a
fair die, each of the six faces is as
likely to occur as the other. So all
six faces of a fair die are equally
likely outcomes.
Example 1:
Find the sample space for the gender of the children if a family has three children.
Use B for boy and G for girl.

 There are two genders, male and female, and each child could be either
gender. Hence, there are eight possibilities, as shown here.

S= {BBB, BBG, BGB, GBB, GGG, GGB, GBG, BGG}

Use tree Diagram
1st Child 2nd Child 3rd Child outcomes

BBB

BBG

BGB

BGG

GBB

GBG

GGB

GGG
Example 2:
Each message in a digital communication system is classified as to whether it is
received within the time specified by the system design.
If two messages are classified, use a tree diagram to represent the sample space of
possible outcomes.
Message 1 Message 2 outcomes

Tim e On time, One time

On

ime Late
On time, Late
O nT

La Late, On time
te
On Time

La t e
Late, Late
Example 3:
Suppose we randomly select two workers from a
company and observe whether the worker selected
each time is a man or a woman. Write all the outcomes
for this experiment.

Let us denote the selection of a man by M and that of a

woman by W.
the sample space is written as
S= { MM, MW, WM, WW}

 Let B be the event that at most one man is selected.

 Each of the final four outcomes for this Event B will occur if either no man or one man is
experiment is a simple event . selected. Hence, the event B is given by
}

Because event B contains more than one outcome, it is a

compound event.
Practice Questions

In a group of adults, some have iPods, and

others do not. If two adults are randomly
selected from this group, how many total
outcomes are possible? Draw a tree
diagram for this experiment.

A box contains a certain number of

computer parts, a few of which are
defective. Two parts are se- lected at
random from this box and inspected to
determine if they are good or defective.
How many total outcomes are possible?
Probability:
A probability is a measure of chance or likelihood that an event in the
future will happen. It can only assume a value between 0 and 1.

There are three ways of assigning probability:

 Classical
 Empirical
 Subjective.
 Classical Probability:
If an experiment can result in ‘n’ equally likely, mutually exclusive and
exhaustive outcomes and ‘m ‘of which are favorable to the occurrence of an
event A, then probability that the event A will occur is given by the ratio m/n.
 Symbolically, the probability of the occurrence of the event A, denoted by
 Probability Line:

A value near zero means the event is not likely to happen. A value near one means it is likely.
Example4:
Consider an experiment of rolling a six-sided die. What is the probability of the
event “an even number of spots appear face up”?

Solution: The possible outcomes are :

Sample Space will be
S = {1,2,3,4,5,6}
n=6
Let ‘A’ be the event that even number appears
A= { 2, 4, 6}
m=3
= 0.5
Let B be the event that odd number appears
B= { 1,3,5}
m=3
P(B) =m/n = 3/6=0.5
Let C be the event that number less than 3 appear
C= { 1,2}
m= 2
P©= m/n= 2/6
Example 5:
the spinner may stop on one of the eight numbered sectors of the circles. Use the
spinner at the righht to find each probability
a. P(2) b.P(yellow) c. P(9) d. P (not blue)

Solution:
S={1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8} , n =8
Let A be the event that “2” occurs , A={2} m=1
a. P(2) =
Let B be the yellow colour in spinner
B={yellow, yellow, yellow, yellow}, m=4
b. P(yellow) =
Let C represents number “9”, m=0
c. P(9) = ==0
Let D represent “no blue colour” occurs,
D={yellow, yellow, yellow, yellow}, m=4
d. P(not blue) =
Example6: There are 3 red pens, 4 blue pens, 2 black pens and 5 green pens in a
drawer. Suppose you choose a pen at random.
(i) What is the probability that the pen choosen is red?
(ii) What is the probability that the pen chosen is blue?
(iii) What is the probability that the pen chosen is red or black ?
Solution:
S = { 3 RED, 4 BLUE, 2 BLACK, 5 GREEN} n=14
(i) Let A be the event that Red pen selected
A = { 3 Red} m=3

(ii) Let B be the event that Blue pen Selected

B={4 Blue} m=4

(iii)Let C be the event that Red or Black pen Selected

C = {3 Red, 2 Black} m=5
Example 7: When a single die is
rolled, find the probability of getting Example 8: When a single die is
a 9. rolled, what is the probability of
getting a number less than 7?
Solution: Solution:

Since the sample space is Since all outcomes 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, and 6 are

less than 7, the probability is
1, 2, 3, 4, 5, and 6, it is impossible to get
a 9. Hence, the probability is
P(9)=

The event of getting a number less than

7 is certain.
Example 9:
A five-card poker hand is drawn from a standard deck of 52 cards. What is the probability
that all five cards are spades?

Solution:
The experiment here consists of choosing five cards from the deck, and the sample space S
consists of all possible five-card hands. Thus, the number of elements in the sample space is
=2598960
The event A we are interested in consistes of choosing five spades. Since the deck containes
only 13 spades, the number of ways choosing five spades is

Thus the probability of drawing five spades is

Since 0.0005 this means that if you play poker many, many times, on average you will be dealt
a hand consisting of only spades about once in every 2000 hands.
Example 10:
A bag contains 20 tennis balls, of which four are defective. If two balls are selected at random from the bag, what is the probability that both are defective?

 Solution :
 n(s)=20C2=190
 n(A)=4C2=6

The probability of the two defective balls os 0.032

Complimentary Events:

The complement of an event A is denoted by A’, or Ac, consists of all the

items in which event A does not occur.
The complement rule is used to determine the probability of an event
occurring by subtracting the probability of the event not occurring from 1.
 Example 11: An urn contains 10 red balls and 15 blue balls. Six balls are drawn at
random from the urn. What is the probability that at least one ball is red?

Solution :
Let E be the event that at least one red ball is drawn.
It is tedious to count all the possible ways in which one or
more of the balls drawn are red.
So, let’s consider , the complement of this event—namely, that
none of the balls chosen is red.
 23

The number of ways of choosing 6 blue balls from the 15 blue balls is 15C6;
the number of ways of choosing 6 balls from the 25 balls is ̂ 25C6.
Thus

By the formula for the complement of an event, we have

 Example 12:

A bag contains 10 red and 15 black balls. If 5 ball are drawn from the bag. What is the
probability
i. We get more red balls than black balls?
ii. We get atleast one black ball?
iii. We get all black balls

Solution:
=25C5=53130
i. P(more red)
3 red and 2 black balls=10C3=12600
4 red and 1 black ball=10C4=3150
all 5 red balls=10C5=252
ii. P(atleast one is black)
1 black and 4 red balls= 10
C4=3150
2 black and 3 red balls= 10
C3=21600
3 black and 2 red balls= 10
C2=20475
4 black and 1 red ball= 10
C1 =13650
iii. All 5 black balls = 10
C0. =3003
Example 13: when a single die is rolled, Calculate the probability
(i) Not an odd number occurs
(ii) Number ‘6’ can not occurs

Solution: (ii) Let B be the event that number

S= ‘6’ occurs
(i) Let A be the event that odd B ={
number occurs
Here n(A)=1, n(S)=6
A=
P(A)
Here n(A)=3, n(S)=6
=1- =
P(A) = 0.5
=1-0.5=0.5
 Example 14: Throw two dice. What is the probability the two scores are different?

Solution:
Different scores are like getting a 2 and 3, or a 6 and 1. It is a long list:
A = { (1,2), (1,3), (1,4), (1,5), (1,6),(2,1), (2,3), (2,4), (1,5), (1,6),(3,1), (3,2), ... etc! }
But the complement (which is when the two scores are the same) is only 6 outcomes:
A' = { (1,1), (2,2), (3,3), (4,4), (5,5), (6,6) }
And its probability is: P(A')
=1 - =
Example 15: In reality, more boys are born than girls. In one typical group, there
are 205 newborn babies, 105 of whom are boys. If one baby is randomly selected
from the group, what is the probability that the baby is not a boy?

Solution:
Because 105 of the 205 babies are boys,
it follows that 100 of them are girls, so
P(Selecting a boy)= P(boy) = = 0.5121
P(not selecting a boy) = P(girl) = 1- = 0.488
 Example 16:A number is chosen at random from a set of whole numbers from 1 to
50. Calculate the probability that the chosen number is not a perfect square.

Solution:
Let A be the event of choosing a perfect square.
Let A’ be the event that the number chosen is not
a perfect square.
A = {1, 4, 9, 16, 25, 36, 49}
Number of elements in A, n(A) = 7
Total number of elements, n(S) = 50

The probability that the number chosen is not a perfect square

 Example 17: What is the probability of getting a total of 7 or 11 when a pair of
fair dice is tossed?

Solution:
Let A be the event that 7 occurs and B the event that 11 comes up.
A={(1,6),(2,5),(3,4),(4,3),(5,2),(6,1)}
B={(5,6),(6,5)}
Now, n(A)=6 and n(B)=2 also n(S)=36
Since all sample points are equally likely, we have P(A) = 6/36 and P(B) = 2/36.
The events A and B are mutually exclusive, since a total of 7 and 11 cannot both occur on the same
toss. Therefore,
P(A ∪ B) = P(A) + P(B) = 6/36+2/36 = 8/36 = 2/9
Practice Questions

An experiment consists of tossing a coin twice. S={HH,HT,TH,TT}=4

(a) Find the sample space.
(b) Find the probability of getting heads exactly two times. A={HH}=1 P(A)=1/4
(c) Find the probability of getting heads at least one time. B={HT,TH,HH}=3 P(B)=3/4
(d) Find the probability of getting heads exactly one time. C={HT,TH}=2 P(C)=2/4

A card is drawn randomly from a standard 52-card deck. Find the probability of the given event.
52C1=52
(a) The card drawn is a king. 4C1=4 P(King)=4C1/52C1
(b) The card drawn is a face card. 12C1=12, P(Face)=12C1/52C1
(c) The card drawn is not a face card. P(Not Face)=1-P(Face)=1-12C1/52C1

A ball is drawn randomly from a jar that contains five red balls, two white balls, and one yellow ball.
Find the probability of the given event.
R=5,W=2,Y=1 T=8 n=8C1=8
(a) A red ball is drawn. P(RED)=5C1/8C1
(b) The ball drawn is not yellow .P(Y)=1C1/8C1= P(NOTYELLOW)=1-1/8=7/8
(c) A black ball is drawn. P(B)=0/8=0