COMSATS University Islamabad,Vehari

PRESENTATION

TOPIC: “Poisson and Geometric Distribution”

Subject: Statistics

Submitted to:
Mam Haseena Ameer

Moderator, Statistics

Submitted by:
Muhammad Bilal

FA20-BSE-044

Section:
(B)
DEPARTMENT:
CS
 Possion Distribution

Define:
The Poisson distribution is a discrete probability distribution that describes probabilities
for counts of events that occur in a specified observation space. It is named after Siméon Denis
Poisson.

In statistics, count data represent the number of events or characteristics over a given
length of time, area, volume, etc.

When the Poisson Distribution is Valid

The Poisson Distribution is only a valid probability analysis tool under certain
conditions. It is a valid statistical model if all the following conditions exist:

 k is the number of times an event happens within a specified time period, and the possible
values for k are simple numbers such as 0, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, etc.
 The event in question cannot occur twice at exactly the same time. There must be some
interval of time – even if just half a second – that separates occurrences of the event.
 The probability of an event happening within a portion of the total time frame being
examined is proportional to the length of that smaller portion of the time frame.

The Distribution Formula

Below is the Poisson Distribution formula, where the mean (average) number of events
within a specified time frame is designated by μ. The probability formula is:

P(x) = (e-μ) (μx) / x!

Where:

x = number of times and event occurs during the time period (no. of success)

μ = average or mean

e (Euler’s number = the base of natural logarithms) is approx. 2.7182

x! = the factorial of x (for example, if x is 3 then x! = 3 x 2 x 1 = 6)

Example:

Patients arrive randomly for treatment at health clinic of hospital. Average patient arrive
each hour is four. Find Probability that exactly two patients arrive in one day.

Sol;

Mean = μ = 4

e = 2.7182

success factor = x = 2

we know that;

P(x) = ( e-μ ) ( μx ) / x!
Putting values;

P ( x = 2 ) = ( e-4 ) ( 42 ) / 2!

P ( x = 2 ) = ( 0.0183 ) x 16 / 2 x 1

P ( x = 2 ) = 0.1464

Geometric Distribution

Define:
Geometric Distribution is the Probability Distribution of the number x of independent trials
performed until a success occurs, where the trials have a constant probability of success p.

When to use?

Geometric distribution is applicable to find probability where we perform an experiment until

the success occurs.

The Probability mass function (p.m.f) of geometric distribution is;

P ( x ) = { qx-1 ; x = 1,2,3…

Such that p + q = 1

The unknown parameter is only p.

Example:

Suppose the probability for an applicant for driver’s license to pass the road test on any
given attempt is 2 / 3. What is the probability that the applicant will pass the road test on third
attempt.

Sol:

No. of failure = q = x – 1 = 3 – 1 = 2

P ( x = 3 ) = qx-1 p

P ( x = 3 ) = ( 1 = 3 )2 x ( 2 / 3)

P ( x = 3 ) = 2 / 27

Difference b/w Possion and Geometric:

The geometric distribution is given by the number of trials before the first failure in a
sequence of independent Bernoulli trials. The Poisson distribution arises from a continuous
model of events occurring independently and randomly in time or space.

Geometric distribution is the number-1 is the number of successes before the first
failure and can be zero if a failure occurs at the first trial. The poisson distribution is the number
of events in a exact given time period.