Poisson Distribution

MPH Programme
Dr Helmy Hazmi, CMPH Dept, UNIMAS
The distributions used in Epidemiology
The normal distribution
- Continuous data, has symmetrical distribution, bell curve distr.

The binomial distribution

- Binary data from a finite sample

The Poisson distribution Finite – boundary, limits

- Binary data from infinite samples Infinite - no boundaries, no limits
Siméon-Denis Poisson (June 21, 1781 - April 25,
1840)

French Mathematician

Developed in 1830

Described the number of times a gambler would

win a rarely won game of chance in a large
number of tries.

Early name – the law of small numbers – coined

by von Bortkiewicz
During WW2, British statistician RD
Clarke used Poisson Distribution to
show that the bombs were dropped
in a random manner and not to a
specific location.
Po (λ)
Frequency of event that occur in a
specific interval

λ = the number of time an event

occurring in a specific time
Asymmetrical distribution.

Lambda – the rate of occurrence

of some event

The smaller the rate of

occurrence, the likely possibility
will lie near to the zero line.

The bigger the r – the central of

the curve will move to the right –
the more unlikely 0 occurrence
would occur.
The number of heart attacks in a month in SGH is 3 per
month. What is the probability that heart attacks could
occur 5 times in a month?

λ=3
What is Poisson distribution
• A probability distribution.

• To describe the probability of discrete quantitative data in a specified

region.

Discrete – whole number

Region – can be time, space, location etc.
Poisson distribution applies when:
• The event is discrete
• The occurrences are independent
• The average frequency of occurrences in a region is known (µ)
• The events can be counted – the successful event – slightly different
from binomial distribution when probability of both success and
failure is known.
The properties of Poisson Distribution
• The distribution is asymmetrical.
• The outcomes is an event – the “success”
• The average number of successes is known
• The probability of a success to occur is proportional to the size of the
region.
• The probability of success nears 0 if the size of the region is extremely
small.
 The probability function in a Poisson experiment – the
exact number of x success that occur when the mean
number of success is µ

P (x,µ) = (e-µ)(µx) / x!

e µ x
Euler’s number, the base of the the mean number of the actual number of
natural logarithm system. It is a successes that occur in a successes that occur in a
constant, approximately 2.718. specified region. specified region.
The number of HFMD in a day
for Kuching is 2 per day. What
is the probability that 3 cases
will occur tomorrow? 
The number of HFMD in a day for Kuching is 2 per day.
What is the probability that 3 cases will occur
tomorrow?
 
µ = 2, 2 cases of HFMD per day on average occurring daily.
x = 3, the number of exactly 3 cases will occur the next day.
e = 2.718
 
P(x,µ) = (e-µ)(µx) / x!
P(3,2) = (2.718-2)(23)/3!
P(3,2) = (0.13534)(2.2.2) / (3.2.1)
P(3,2) = 0.180
In a study of drug induced anaphylaxis among patients taking
rocuronium bromide as anaesthesia, it was found that the occurrence
of anaphylaxis followed a Poisson model with λ=12 incidence per year
in Malaysia. Find the probability that in the next year, exactly three
patients will experience anaphylaxis.
= 0.00177.
Based in the previous example, what is the probability that at least
three patients in the next year will experience anaphylaxis?

(hint: you need to consider the concept of complementary event).

Consider that the probability excluded are those P(X = 0), P(X = 1),
P(X=2). Therefore;

1 – P(X ≤ 2)
= 1 – [P(X = 0) + P(X = 1) + P(X = 2)]
=1- [+ + ]
= 1 – (0.00000614 + 0.00007373 + 0.00044238)
= 0.99947775
End.