Poisson distribution

• The Poisson probability distribution is another important probability distribution of a discrete random
variable that has a large number of applications.
• Suppose a washing machine in a laundromat breaks down an average of three times a month. This is an
example of a Poisson Probability distribution problem.
• Each breakdown is called an occurrence in Poisson probability distribution terminology.
• The Poisson Probability distribution is applied to experiments with random and independent occurrences.
• The occurrences are random in the sense that they do not follow any pattern, and, hence they are
unpredictable.
• Independence of occurrences means that one occurrence (or nonoccurrence) of an event does not influence
the successive occurrences or nonoccurrences of that event. The occurrences are always considered with
respect to an interval.
• The Poisson distribution is the discrete probability distribution of the
number of events occurring in a given time period, given the average
number of times the event occurs over that time period.

• The Poisson distribution has only one parameter, λ, which is

the mean number of events.
• In the example of washing machine, the interval is one month.
• The interval may be a time interval, a space interval, or a volume interval.
• The actual number of occurrences within an interval is random and independent.
• If the average number of occurrences for a given interval is known, then by using
the Poisson Probability distribution, we can compute the probability of a certain
number of occurrences, x, in that interval.
• the number of actual occurrences in an interval is denoted by x.
Conditions to apply the Poisson probability distribution

• The following three conditions must be satisfied to applied the

Poisson probability distribution
1. X is a discrete random variable
2. The occurrences are random
3. The occurrence are independent
In the Poisson distribution terminology…
• the average number of occurrences in an interval is denoted by λ.
• The actual number of occurrences in that interval is denoted by x.
• Using the Poisson probability distribution, we find the probability of x
occurrences during an interval given that the mean occurrences during that interval
are λ.
• The mean number of occurrences in an interval, denoted by λ, is called the
parameter of the Poisson distribution or the Poisson parameter.
The Poisson distribution formula
𝜆𝑘 𝑒 −𝜆
𝑝(𝑥 = 𝑘) =
𝑘!

• X is a causal variable
• k is the number of times a given event occurs in a given time interval.
• P (x=k) is the probability that event will occur k times
• λ is the average number of times an event occurs in a given time interval.
• e = 2.718
• As is obvious from the Poisson distribution formula, we need to know only the
value of λ, the compute the probability of any given value of x.
One important point
• about the Poisson distribution is that the interval for λ and x must be
equal.

• If they are not, the mean λ should be redefined to make them equal.
At a small walk-in clinic, an average of five patients arrive at the clinic per hour during
opening hours. What is the probability that exactly three patients will arrive in the
next hour?
Assume that the number of patients arriving per hour follows a Poisson distribution.
If you receive an average of two emails per week from your statistics professor, what is
the probability that you will receive exactly one email from your statistics professor on Monday?
Assume that the number of emails per day follows a Poisson distribution.
Over the last 300 years, there were 87 floods in Indonesia. Assuming that the
number of floods per year follows a Poisson distribution, what is the probability that
there will be no floods in Indonesia next year?