1.1.1.

GEOMETRIC (PASCAL) DISTRIBUTION

A random variable X is defined to have a geometric distribution, if the discrete
probability density function (p.d.f) of X is given by

f(x)=¿ { p qx , x =0, 1,2,⋯ ¿ ¿¿

0<p<1. p = probability of success and q is the probability of failure.
This distribution occurs in real life, in situations where we have say a random variable
X representing the number of trials required before the first success, then X has a
geometric distribution.

The Mean, Variance and Moment generating function of the Binomial Distribution

We first work out the m.g.f. which will in turn be used to obtain the mean and variance
expressions.
By definition;
M . g . f . = M X (t )=E (etx )
∞ ∞ ∞
tx tx
= ∑ e ⋅f ( x ) = ∑e pq = p ∑ e tx q x
x

x=0 x=0 x=0

∞
= p ∑ (qet )x
x =0
= p [ (qet ) 0 +( qet )1 +(qe t )2 +(qet )3 +⋯]
= p [ 1+(qe t )1 +(qe t )2 +(qet )3 +⋯]
−1 p
= p ( 1−qet ) =
1−qet

−1
⇒ M X (t ) = p ( 1−qe t )

Next, we know that

Mean = M 'X (0 )

d −1 d −1
∴ M 'X (t ) =
dt
[ p ( 1−qe t ) ]= p [ ( 1−qet ) ]
dt
−2
= p (−1) ( 1−qe t ) (−qe t )
−2
= pqe t ( 1−qet )
at t = 0; we have

Page 1 of 14
 ' 0 0 −2
M X (0 ) = pqe ( 1−qe )
= pq(1−q)−2
= pqp−2 Since p+q=1 ⇒ p=1−q
= qp−1
q
⇒ Mean=
p

Next we work out Var (x)

We know that
2 2 2
Var( x ) = σ = E ( x ) − [ E( x ) ]
'' ' 2
= M X ( 0) − [ M X (0 ) ]

' t t −2
M X (t )= pqe ( 1−qe )

Using product rule to differentiate the above expression, we get

Let
dU
U= pqe t ⇒ = pqe t
dt
dV
V =(1−qe t )−2 ⇒ =(−2)(1−qe t )−3 (−qet )=2 qet (1−qe t )−3
dt

dU dV
∴ M ''X (t ) = V +U
dt dt
= (1−qe ) ⋅pqe + pqet⋅2 qe t (1−qet )−3
t −2 t

=pqe t (1−qe t )−3 [ (1−qe t )1 +2 qe t ]

= pqet (1−qe t )−3 [ 1−qet +2 qe t ]
= pqet (1−qe t )−3 [ 1+qe t ]

At t = 0;

M ''X (0 )= pqe 0 (1−qe 0 )−3 [ 1+qe 0 ]

= pq(1 )(1−q )−3 [ 1+q ]
= pqp− 3 [ 1+ q ] Since p+q=1⇒ p=1−q
=qp−2 [ 1+ q ]
But

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 2
Var( x ) = M ''X (0 ) − [ M 'X (0 ) ]
=qp−2 [ 1+q ] −(qp−1 )2
= qp−2 +q 2 p−2−q2 p−2
q
=qp−2 = 2
p

Example 3.1.6
If the probability is 0.75 that an applicant for a driver’s license will pass the road test on
any given try, what is the probability that an applicant will finally pass the test on the
fourth try?
Solution
Substituting x = 4, and p = 0.75 into the formula for the geometric distribution, we get
4−1 3
f (x ) =0 .75(1−0 .75 ) =0 .75(0 . 25) =0 . 0117

Page 3 of 14
Exercise
(1) If the probability is 0.75 that a person will believe a rumor about the
transgressions of a certain politician, find the probabilities that

(a) The eighth person to hear the rumor will be the fifth to believe it;

(b) The fifteenth person to hear the rumor will be the tenth to believe it;

[(a) 0.1298, (b) 0.1101]

(2) If the probabilities of having a male or female child are both 0.50, find the
probabilities that

(a) A family’s fourth child is their first son;

(b) A family’s seventh child is their second daughter;

(c) A family’s tenth child is their fourth or fifth son.

(3) An expert sharpshooter misses a target 5 percent of the time. Find the probability
that she will miss the target for the second time on the fifteenth shot. [0.0180]

(4) When taping a television commercial, the probability is 0.30 that a certain actor
will get his lines straight on any one take. What is the probability that he will get
his lines straight for the first time on the sixth take?

Page 4 of 14
SAMPLING WITH AND WITHOUT REPLACEMENT

1.1.2. HYPERGEOMETRIC DISTRIBUTION

The binomial distribution is important in sampling with replacement. Suppose that a
box contains N things, e.g., screws, m of which are defective. If we want to draw a screw
at random, the probability of obtaining a defective screw is p = m/N.
Hence in drawing a sample of n screws with replacement, the probability that precisely
x of the n screws are defective is
x n− x
n x n−x n m m
f (x ) =
x ()p q =
x N ( )( ) ( )1−
N
, x = 0, 1,2, ⋯,n
= 0 , elsewhere
In sampling without replacement the probability is

¿
f (x )=¿ ¿ ¿¿
……………………………………………….(1)

This distribution with the probability function (1) is called hypergeometric distribution.
To verify our statement we first note that, there are
( N ¿ )¿ ¿¿
(a) ¿ different ways of picking n things out of N.
(m ¿ )¿ ¿¿
(b) ¿ different ways of picking x defectives from m.
( N−m¿) ¿¿¿
(c) ¿ different ways of picking (n – x) non-defectives from N – m.
and each way in (b) combined with each way in (c) gives the total number of mutually
exclusive ways of obtaining x defectives in n drawings without replacement.
Since (a) is the total number of outcomes and we draw at random, each such way has
1
¿¿
( N¿ )¿ ¿¿
the probability ¿ . From this, equation (1) follows.
The hypergeometric distribution has the mean
nm(N −m)( N −n)
μ=
nm σ 2=
N and the variance N 2 ( N −1) .
Page 5 of 14
Proof (Exercise)

Example 3.1.7
A carton contains 20 fuses, 5 of which are defective. Find the probability that, if a
sample of 3 fuses is chosen from the carton by random sampling without replacement, x
fuses in the sample will be defective.

Solution
We have N = 20, m = 5, N – m = 15, n = 3.
For sampling without replacement the probability is

f ( x )=( m ¿ ) ¿ ¿ ¿ ¿ ¿
¿
( 5 ¿ ) ¿ ( 5¿ ) ¿ ( 5¿
f (0)= ¿¿¿¿ f (1)= ¿¿¿¿ f (2)= ¿¿¿¿) ¿
¿ ¿ , ¿ , .

( 5¿
f (3)= ¿¿¿¿ ) ¿
¿
EXERCISE

1. A box contains 5 marbles of which 3 are chipped. Two marbles are chosen
randomly without replacement from the box. What is the probability function for
the number of chipped marbles in the sample?
2. A panel of 7 judges is to decide which of 2 final contestants in a beauty contest
will be declared winner; a simple majority of the judges will determine the
winner. Assume 4 of the judges will vote for Marie and that the other 3 will vote
for Sue. If we randomly select 3 of the judges and ask them who they are going to
vote for, what is the probability that a majority of the judges in the sample will
favour Marie? [22/35]
3. An incoming lot of material contains 100 items. A sample of 5 items will be
inspected; each item selected will be classified as defective or non-defective. If
the sample contains 1 or fewer defectives it will be accepted, otherwise it will be
rejected. If the lot contains 5 defectives, what is the probability that it will be
accepted? If the lot contains 15 defectives, what is the probability that it will be
rejected? [0.981, 0.8391]

Page 6 of 14
(4) A quality control engineer inspects a random sample of two hand-held
calculators from each incoming lot of size 18 and accepts the lot if they are both
in good working condition; otherwise, the entire lot is inspected with the cost
charged to the vendor. What are the probabilities that such a lot will be accepted
without further inspection if it contains
(a) Four calculators that are not in good working condition; [0.5948]
(b) Eight calculators that are not in good working condition; [0.2941]
(c) Twelve calculators that are not in good working condition? [0.0980]

(5) Among the 300 employees of a company, 240 are union members, whereas the
others are not. If six of the employees are chosen by lot to serve on a committee
that administers the pension fund, find the probability that four of the six will be
union members using
(a) The formula for the hypergeometric distribution; [0.2478]
(b) The binomial distribution as an approximation. [0.2458]

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3.1.7. THE POISSON DISTRIBUTION
When n is large, the calculation of binomial probabilities with formula of the p.d.f. of a
binomial distribution will usually involve a prohibitive amount of work.
In this section we shall present a probability distribution that can be used to
approximate binomial probabilities of this kind.
A discrete random variable X having a probability density function (p.d.f) of the form
−λ x
e λ
Pr(X=x)=f (x)=¿ { x!
, x=0, 1, 2, 3, ⋯¿¿¿¿
is said to have a Poisson distribution.
We write X is Poi ( λ ) .
λ>0 is the parameter of the distribution.
Note: There is no upper limit to the value of x. This is usually determined by practical
considerations.
The Poisson recurrence formula is

λ
Pr ( X =x+1 )= Pr ( X=x ) for x=0 , 1, 2 , 3 , ⋯
x+1
This enables successive probabilities to be more easily calculated once the initial
probability is known.

USES
There are two main uses of the Poisson distribution.
1. Estimation of probabilities of random events which have a small probability of
occurrence.
Typical applications of this are telephone calls arriving at a switchboard,
insurance claims, accident rates, flaws in manufactured material.
Usually the mean rate of occurrence per unit time will be given, although this
may be scaled accordingly.
2. Approximation to a binomial distribution with the same mean, i.e.,  = np, and
usually n > 50 and p < 0.1.

Example 3.1.8
Let X be a Poisson distributed random variable with f (x) given by

e−λ λ x
f (x;λ) = ¿{ x!
, x = 0, 1, 2, ⋯¿¿¿
where λ is a parameter.
Show that f (x) is a discrete p. d. f.

Solution

Page 8 of 14
 −λ
λx
∑ f ( x ) = ∑ ex ! , x = 0, 1, 2, ⋯
x x
e λx
∞ −λ ∞
λx
=∑ = e− λ ∑ x!
x =0 x ! x =0

λ2 λ3 λn
= e−λ 1+ λ + [ 2
2!
+
3!
+⋯+
3
n!
+⋯
n
]
λ λ λ
e λ = 1+λ + + +⋯+ +⋯
But 2 ! 3! n!
∑ f ( x) = e−λ e λ = e 0 = 1
x . Hence f (x) is a discrete p. d. f.

The Moment generating function, Mean and Variance of the Poisson distribution

We first work out the m.g.f. which will in turn be used to obtain the mean and variance
expressions.
By definition,
M . g . f . = M X (t )=E (etx )
n n n n
tx e− λ λ x
tx −λ e tx λ x − λ ( λe t ) x
= ∑ e ⋅f ( x ) = ∑ e⋅ =e ∑ =e ∑
x=0 x=0 x! x=0 x ! x=0 x !
t 0 t 1 2 3 n
( λet ) ( λet ) ( λet )
=e
−λ
[ ( λe ) ( λe )
0!
+
1!
+
2!
+
3!
+ ⋯+
n!
+⋯ ]
( λet )2 ( λe t )3 ( λe t )n
=e −λ
[ 1+λe +
t
t

−λ+ λe
2!
t
+
t
λ(e −1 )
3!
+⋯+
n!
+⋯ ]
=e− λ⋅e λe =e =e

λ(et −1 )
⇒ M X (t ) = e

Next, we know that

Mean = M 'X (0 )

d [ λ ( et −1 )]
∴ M 'X (t ) = e
dt
t
= e λ( e −1 ) ¿ λe t
t
= λet e λ(e −1 )
So at t = 0; we have

Page 9 of 14
 0
M 'X (0) = λe0 e λ (e −1)
= λ(1)(1)
=λ
⇒ Mean=λ

Note: λ is a constant greater than zero.

Next we work out Var (x)

We know that
2 2 2
Var( x ) = σ = E ( x ) − [ E( x ) ]
'' ' 2
= M X ( 0) − [ M X (0 ) ]

t
M 'X (t )=λe t e λ (e −1)

Using product rule to differentiate the above expression, we get

Let
dU
U= λet ⇒ =λe t
dt
t
λ (e −1) dV t
t λ(e −1 )
V =e ⇒ =λe e
dt

'' dU dV
∴ M X (t ) = V +U
dt dt
t t
λ(e −1) t t t λ( e −1 )
=e ¿ λe + λe ⋅λe e
t
=λet e λ(e −1 ) [ 1+ λet ]

At t = 0;
0
M ''X (0 )= λe 0 e λ( e −1 ) [1+ λe0 ]
=λ (1)(1) [ 1+ λ ]
= λ+ λ2
But

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 2
Var( x) = M ''X (0 ) − [ M'X (0 )]
= λ+ λ2 −( λ )2
= λ+ λ2 −λ2
=λ
Thus, for a Poisson distributed random variable Mean , μ=λ=Var ( X )=λ

Poisson or Binomial

Given a frequency distribution of the binomial/Poisson type, the decision on whether

to fit a binomial or Poisson distribution is often made by considering the mean and
variance of the distribution.
The closer these two are in value the more likely a Poisson distribution is applicable.

Additive Property

The additive property of the Poisson distribution:

If X is Po (x) and Y is Po (y), then X + Y is Po (x + y).

Example 3.1.9
Telephone calls arrive at a switchboard at the rate of 50 per hour.
Find the probabilities of 0, 1, or 2 calls arriving in any 5 minute period.

Solution
50
=4 . 17 calls
The average rate of call per 5 minute period = 12 .
If the random variable X is “the number of calls in any 5 minute period”,
then X is Poi (4.17).
e−4. 17 (4 . 17 )x
Pr( X =x)=f ( x)= , x=0 , 1, 2 , 3 , ⋯
x!
=0 , elsewhere
e−4 .17 ( 4 .17 )0
Pr( X =0 )=f (0)= =0 . 02
0!

e−4 .17 ( 4 .17 )1

Pr( X =1)=f (1)= =0 . 06
1!

e−4 . 17( 4 . 17)2

Pr( X =2)=f (2 )= =0 . 13
2!

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Example 3.1.10
A college professor, based on his past experience, feels that there is a probability of
0.001 that he will be late to any given class and that being late or not for any class has no
effect on whether or not he is late for any other class.
Then the number of times X that he will be late to his next 100 classes is a binomial
random variable with parameters n = 100 and p = 0.001, and the exact probabilities that
he is late exactly 0 times and exactly 1 time are, respectively,
100
Pr( X =0 )=
0( )
( 0 . 001 )0 ( 0 . 999 )100=0. 9048
100
Pr( X =1)=
1( )
( 0 .001 )1 ( 0 . 999 )99=0. 0906
Note that in this case n is fairly large and p is rather small so that we would expect the
preceding probabilities to be well approximated by those for a Poisson random variable
with μ=np=100×0 .001=0 .1 . The Poisson values are:

e−0. 1 (0 . 1)0
Pr( X =0 )=f (0)= =0 . 9048
0!

e−0. 1 (0 . 1)1
Pr( X =1)=f (1)= =0 . 0905
1!
and the approximation is quite good.

Example 3.1.11
Telephone calls reach a switchboard independently and at random, external ones at a
mean rate of 1 in any 5 minute period, and internal ones at a mean rate of 2 in any 5
minute period.
Calculate the probability that there will be more than 2 calls in any period of 2 minutes.

Solution
Let the random variable E be “the number of external calls per 2 minute period”,
E is Po (0.4).
Let the random variable I be “the number of internal calls per 2 minute period”,
I is Po (0.8).
Using the additive property of Poisson distributions,
E + I is Po (0.4+0.8), i.e., Po (1.2).

Pr ( E+ I >2)=1−Pr ( E+ I ≤2 )
= 1−[ Pr ( E+ I =0 )+ Pr ( E+ I =1)+ Pr( E+ I =2) ]
=1−Pr (E + I =0 )−Pr ( E+ I =1 )−Pr ( E+ I =2 )

Page 12 of 14
 e−1 .2 ( 1 .2 )0 −1.2
Pr( E+I=0 )= =e =0.301
0!

1
e−1.2 ( 1.2 )
Pr( E+I=1 )= =1. 2⋅e−1 .2 =0 .361
1!

e−1.2 ( 1.2 )2
Pr( E+I=2 )= =0 . 271
2!

∴ Pr( E+I>2)=1−0 .301−0 .361−0 .217

=0 . 121

EXERCISE

1. Telephone calls arrive at a switchboard at random intervals at an average rate of

24 calls per hour.
Find the probability of receiving:
(a) No calls in 5 minutes; [0.135]
(b) More than 4 calls in 5 minutes; [0.0527]
2. The number of bacteria in 1 ml of inoculum has a Poisson distribution with
Mean = 2.0. If at least 3 bacteria are needed for a dose to be ineffective, find the
probability that a dose of 1 ml will cause infection. [0.143]
3. Two types of flaw, A and B, may occur in a manufactured cloth. The numbers of
flaws of type A and of type B occurring per metre length of cloth are
independent random variables having Poisson distributions with means 0.5 and
1, respectively.
(a) Find the probabilities that a length of 1 metre of cloth will have:
(i) 2 or fewer flaws of type A, [0.986]
(ii) No flaw of either type. [0.223]
(b) Show that the probability of a length of 1 metre of the cloth containing 1
flaw only is exactly three times that of it containing 1 flaw of each type.
(c) Removing a type A flaw from the cloth costs 8 pence and removing a type
B flaw costs 2 pence. Find the mean and the standard deviation of the cost
of removing flaws per 1 metre length of cloth. [mean = 6, s.d.= 2.45]
4. Suppose that in the production of 50-ohm radio resistors, non-defective items are
those that have a resistance between 45 and 50 ohms and the probability of a
resistor’s being defective is 0.2%. The resistors are sold in lots of 100, with the
guarantee that all resistors are non-defective.
What is the probability that a given lot will violate this guarantee? [0.181]
5. It has been observed that packages of KBL’s beer are removed from the shelf of a
particular supermarket at a rate of 10 per hour during rush periods. What is the

Page 13 of 14
 probability that at least 1 package is removed during the first 6 minutes of a rush
period? [0.6321]
What is the probability that at least 1 package is removed from the shelf during
each of 3 consecutive, nonoverlapping 6 – minute intervals? [0.2526]
6. At a certain manufacturing plant, accidents have been occurring at the rate of 1
every 2 months. Assuming the accidents occur independently, what is the
expected number of accidents per year? What is the standard deviation of the
number of accidents per year? What is the probability that there will be no
accidents in a given month? [6, 2.45, 0.61]
7. Assume the sales made by a used car salesman occur like events in a Poisson
process with parameter μ=1 per week. What is the probability he makes
exactly 3 sales in a 2-week period? At least 3? At most 3? [0.1804, 0.3233,
0.8571]
8. In a given city, 4 percent of all licensed drivers will be involved in at least one car
accident in any given year. Use the Poisson approximation to the binomial
distribution to determine the probability that among 150 licensed drivers
randomly chosen in this city
(a) Only five will be involved in at least one accident in any given year;
(b) At most three will be involved in at least one accident in any given year.
[(a) 0.1606 (b) 0.1512]

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