Instructor: Conrad Perez

Student: Jennifer Tofan

Course: Math 21 Online (52031) - Spring Assignment: 8.4
Date: 05/08/23
2023

Pecan producers blow air through the pecans so that the lighter ones are blown out. The​lighter-weight pecans are generally bad and the
heavier ones tend to be better. These​"blow outs" and​"good nuts" are often sold to tourists along the highway. Suppose 26​% of the​"blow
outs" are​good, and 18​% of the​"good nuts" are good. Complete parts​(a) through​(c) below.

(a) What is the probability that if you crack and check 12 ​"good nuts" you will find 10 bad​ones?

If p is the probability of success in a single trial of a binomial​experiment, the probability of x successes and n − x failures in n independent
repeated trials of the​experiment, known as binomial​probability, is as shown below.

x n−x
P(x successes in n trials) = C(n,x) • p • (1 − p)

In this​case, success can be defined either as a nut being a good nut or a bad nut. For the purposes of this​problem, define success as a nut
being a good nut.

The problem asks about the probability of the nuts being​bad, but the given probability is for the nuts being good

If 10 out of 12 nuts are​bad, then 2 nuts are​good, so n = 12 and x = 2.

The probability that a​"good nut" is good is p = 0.18.

Use the formula for binomial probability to find the probability that 2 ​"good nuts" are actually good​(which is equal to the probability that 10 ​
"good nuts" are​bad), rounding to four decimal places.

2 10
C(12,2) • (0.18) • (1 − 0.18) ≈ 0.2939

Therefore, the probability that if you crack and check 12 ​"good nuts" you will find 10 bad ones is approximately 0.2939.

(b) What is the probability that if you crack and check 12 ​"blow outs" you will find 10 bad​ones?

In this​case, n and x are the same as in part​(a), so n = 12 and x = 2. The probability that a​"blow out" is good is p = 0.26.

Use the formula for binomial probability to find the probability that 2 ​"blow outs" are good​(which is equal to the probability that 10 ​"blow outs"
are​bad), rounding to four decimal places.

2 10
C(12,2) • (0.26) • (1 − 0.26) = 0.2197.

Therefore, the probability that if you crack and check 12 ​"blow outs" you will find 10 bad ones is approximately 0.2197.

(c) If we assume that 80​% of the roadside stands sell​"good nuts," and that out of 12 nuts we find 10 that are​bad, what is the probability that
the nuts are​"blow outs"?

Notice that this problem is asking for the conditional probability of an event. Let event A be ​"10 of 12 nuts are​bad" and let event B be​"the nuts
P(A∩B)
are​"blow outs."" The formula for the probability of B given that A is true is ​P(B|A) = . Use this formula to determine the probability that
P(A)
the nuts are​"blow outs" given that 10 of 12 nuts are bad.

The probability of the event A∩B is the probability of buying​"blow outs" and having 2 of 12 nuts be good. The probability of event A is the
probability of​"good nuts" or​"blow outs" having 2 of 12 good nuts.

P(A∩B) probability of having 2 of 12 good and are "blow outs"
P(B|A) = =
P(A) probability of "good nuts" or "blow outs" having 2 of 12 good

The probability of buying​"blow outs" and having 2 of 12 nuts be good is 0.2 • 0.2197 and the probability of buying​"good nuts" and having 2 of
12 nuts be good is 0.8 • 0.2939. Substitute these values into the expression found previously and simplify to find the​probability, rounding to
four decimal places.

probability of having 2 of 12 good and are "blow outs" 0.2 • 0.2197

=
probability of "good nuts" or "blow outs" having 2 of 12 good (0.8 • 0.2939) + (0.2 • 0.2197)
≈ 0.1575

Therefore, the probability that the purchased nuts were​"blow outs" is approximately 0.1575.