Republic of the Philippines

DEPARTMENT OF SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY

Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services
Administration (PAGASA)

EL NIÑO BRIEFER: DOST-PAGASA initiatives to assess and mitigate the potential

impacts of El Niño

DOST-PAGASA has been continuously monitoring the developing El Nino in the tropical
Pacific and its potential climate impacts on the country. The PAGASA ENSO Alert and
Warning System was raised last May 2, 2023 to El Niño Alert status to provide guidance in
the preparation of sectoral action plans and make early actions before El Niño occurs.

Upon the El Niño Alert issuance, all concerned government agencies and the public are
encouraged to stay updated on PAGASA’s climate advisories and be aware/prepared or take
early action for potential early impacts.

DOST-PAGASA’s climate monitoring and forecasts show that El Nino will likely start by June-
July-August (JJA) 2023 season at 80% probability. The following provinces may experience
below normal to above normal rainfall conditions from May to October 2023.

WAY BELOW NORMAL BELOW NORMAL NEAR NORMAL ABOVE NORMAL

JUNE MAY

0 0 84 0
MOST OF THE
-O- -O- COUNTRY -O-
WAY BELOW NORMAL BELOW NORMAL NEAR NORMAL ABOVE NORMAL
0 0 83 1
MOST OF THE
-O- -O- COUNTRY BATAAN
WAY BELOW NORMAL BELOW NORMAL NEAR NORMAL ABOVE NORMAL
0 3 70 11
DAVAO CITY THE REST OF THE CAR
-O- DAVAO DEL SUR COUNTRY ABRA
COTABATO APAYAO
REGION II
BATANES
CAGAYAN
REGION III (CENTRAL LUZON)
JULY

BATAAN
ZAMBALES
NATIONAL CAPITAL REGION
METRO MANILA
REGION IV-A (CALABARZON)
BATANGAS
CAVITE
REGION IV-B (MIMAROPA)
OCCIDENTAL MINDORO
REGION V (BICOL REGION)
MASBATE
WAY BELOW NORMAL BELOW NORMAL NEAR NORMAL ABOVE NORMAL
0 13 63 8
REGION V (BICOL REGION) CAR
-O- CAMARINES NORTE THE REST OF THE ABRA
CATANDUANES REGION I (ILOCOS REGION)
REGION VII (CENTRAL VISAYAS) ILOCOS NORTE
NEGROS ORIENTAL ILOCOS SUR
CEBU LA UNION
AUGUST

SIQUIJOR PANGASINAN
REGION VIII (EASTERN VISAYAS) REGION III (CENTRAL LUZON)
BILIRAN BATAAN
SOUTHERN LEYTE ZAMBALES
REGION IX (ZAMBOANGA PENINSULA) REGION IV-A
ZAMBOANGA DEL NORTE CAVITE
REGION XIII- CARAGA
AGUSAN DEL NORTE
DINAGAT ISLANDS
SURIGAO DEL NORTE
SURIGAO DEL SUR
BARMM
BASILAN
“tracking the sky…helping the country”

Science Garden Compound, BIR Road, Brgy.Central, Quezon City, Tel. No. (02) 284-0800
Metro Manila, Philippines 1100 Website: http://bagong.pagasa.dost.gov.ph
 WAY BELOW NORMAL BELOW NORMAL NEAR NORMAL ABOVE NORMAL
SEPTEMBER 0 1 82 1
MOST OF THE
-O- CAMARINES SUR COUNTRY BATAAN
WAY BELOW NORMAL BELOW NORMAL NEAR NORMAL ABOVE NORMAL
0 46 38 0
CAR
-O- ABRA -O-
THE REST OF THE
BENGUET
IFUGAO COUNTRY
KALINGA
APAYAO
MOUNTAIN PROVINCE
REGION I (ILOCOS REGION)
ILOCOS NORTE
ILOCOS SUR
LA UNION
PANGASINAN
REGION II
ISABELA
NUEVA VIZCAYA
QUIRINO
REGION III (CENTRAL LUZON)
BATAAN
BULACAN
NUEVA ECIJA
PAMPANGA
TARLAC
ZAMBALES
AURORA
NATIONAL CAPITAL REGION
OCTOBER

METRO MANILA
REGION IV-A (CALABARZON)
BATANGAS
CAVITE
LAGUNA
RIZAL
QUEZON
REGION IV-B (MIMAROPA)
MARINDUQUE
OCCIDENTAL MINDORO
ORIENTAL MINDORO
ROMBLON
SPRATLY ISLANDS
REGION V (BICOL REGION)
ALBAY
CAMARINES NORTE
CAMARINES SUR
CATANDUANES
MASBATE
SORSOGON
REGION VI (WESTERN VISAYAS)
AKLAN
ANTIQUES
ILOILO
REGION VIII (EASTERN VISAYAS)
BILIRAN
EASTERN SAMAR
NORTHERN SAMAR
SAMAR (WESTERN SAMAR)
SOUTHERN LEYTE
REGION XIII (CARAGA)
DINAGAT ISLANDS

“tracking the sky…helping the country”

Science Garden Compound, BIR Road, Brgy.Central, Quezon City, Tel. Nos. (632) 929 48 65; (632) 434 90 40
Metro Manila, Philippines 1100 Fax: (632) 929 48 65
Postal Address: P.O. Box 3278 Manila Website: http://bagong.pagasa.dost.gov.ph
Actions being taken by DOST-PAGASA:

• Monthly update of seasonal forecast up to six (6) months

• Conduct of Monthly Climate Forum (NEXT FORUM, MAY 24)
• Issuance of Monthly Climate Assessment and Outlook (MAY 5)
• Issuance of Press Statements and Press Briefing
• Issuance of Meteorological Dry Spell/Drought Assessment and Outlook in the
occurrence of early impacts
• Conduct of Regional /Provincial Forum from May onwards (in coordination with
DILG and PRSDs)
Priority areas:
o Zamboanga Peninsula
o Northern Mindanao
o BARMM
o SOCCSKSARGEN
• Close coordination with the Department of Agriculture, National Water Resources
Board, and other concerned national government agencies through briefings, and
inter-agency meetings.

For more information, please call the Climate Monitoring and Prediction Section (CLIMPS),
Climatology and Agrometeorology Division (CAD) at telephone number (02) 8284-0800 local
4920 or through email: pagasa.climps@gmail.com.

Prepared by: Climate Monitoring and Prediction Section

Climatology and Agrometeorology Division
DOST-PAGASA

Date prepared: 02 May 2023

“tracking the sky…helping the country”

Science Garden Compound, BIR Road, Brgy.Central, Quezon City, Tel. Nos. (632) 929 48 65; (632) 434 90 40
Metro Manila, Philippines 1100 Fax: (632) 929 48 65
Postal Address: P.O. Box 3278 Manila Website: http://bagong.pagasa.dost.gov.ph