Math Exploration

What Are the Chances?

Design a Probability Carnival

Focus!
In this Exploration, you will use your understanding of probability to create three
carnival games for others to enjoy. You will explore the difference between theoretical
and experimental probability. Your challenge will be to design games that are fun to
play and offer players a chance to win.

Steps to Success
To complete this Exploration, you will need to do the following…

1. Before you begin this Exploration, read the Evaluation Rubric carefully so that you will
_____
understand the expectations for success.

2. Theoretical probability is the likelihood that a given outcome will occur. It is what
you would expect to happen based on mathematics. For example: when you toss a
coin it can come up heads or tails. So, theoretically, there is a 1 out of 2 chance that it
will be heads each time you toss it. Theoretically, it will come up heads half the time.
_____ Experimental probability is what actually occurs in real life. You can find it by
conducting an experiment and observing the outcomes. In our example, if you toss a
coin it may be that it comes up heads about half the time. But, it may come up heads
every time! Or not at all!
Write definitions in your own words of these terms in your journal.

3. Build your understanding of theoretical and experimental probability. To do this,

gather three identically shaped items of different colors such as colored blocks,
Legos, M and M’s, etc. Record all your work in your journal.
● Put any two of the items into a paper bag. What is the theoretical probability of
picking any one color?
● Now, explore experimental probability. Conduct an experiment in which you select
one of the items from the bag at least 50 times. Tally the results.
_____ ● Analyze how your experimental results differed from the theoretical probability you
calculated.
● Add the third item to the bag. Calculate the theoretical probability of picking one
of the colors.
● Run a new experiment. Tally and analyze the results.
● How did adding the third item change the game?

Check in with your teacher to make sure your research is complete. Teacher Initials: _____


4. Use your creativity to design and make three carnival games of chance,
based on what you have learned. Your games should be based on
random chance, not skill. Each game should have a different
theoretical probability of winning.
Games of chance typically use cards, dice, coins, spinners, game boards, blocks of
multiple colors, or other items you might choose. They are colorful and fun to play
_____ because the player has a reasonable chance of winning. For each game you need:
○ a fun title
○ a colorful, eye-catching presentation
○ complete written rules or directions
○ a statement describing the player’s theoretical probability of winning
Check in with your teacher to make sure that your games are ready to play.
Teacher Initials: ________

5. Now, test your games by experimenting. Create a tally sheet for each game. Play each
game at least 25 times and keep track of whether you win or lose each time you play.
_____
How does your experimental data compare to the theoretical probability? Write your
observations in your journal.

6. With your teacher’s permission, invite your classmates to your carnival. Keep your
data sheets next to each game and ask the players to add their wins and losses. As
you collect more data, see if the results come closer to the theoretical probability.
_____ Think about what your research has shown and summarize your conclusions in your
journal.
Use the Evaluation Rubric to check your journal, data sheets, and games. Improve your
project if needed.

7. Think carefully about the Questions of Mathematical Practice and respond to at least
_____
three of them in your journal.

8. Turn in your journal, data sheets, and games for evaluation by your teacher.
_____
When everything is complete, find out what your teacher wants you to do next.

Questions of Mathematical Practice

❏ How did repeating your initial experiment using two and then three items
extend your understanding of probability?
❏ What observations did you make when you increased the number of times the
games were played?
❏ What challenges did you encounter in designing your games?
❏ How did you design your data sheet and why did you choose that format?
❏ If you were asked to play a carnival game, what questions would you ask before you played? Why?


Introduction to Explorations in Math
Dear Teachers,

As former classroom and gifted education resource teachers, we know how challenging it can be to meet the
varied needs of your students. In today’s one-size-fits-all world, we congratulate you on your efforts to seek
out and use materials to offer increased rigor to your students.

Explorations in Math is designed for gifted and high ability students who would benefit from greater challenge
in the classroom. While most of your class is involved with regular classroom instruction on grade-level
standards, Explorations in Math provides the opportunity for some students to work independently on
challenging investigations into the math topics addressed by the standards written by the National Council of
Teachers of Mathematics. In addition to the content standards, we have highlighted the Standards for
Mathematical Practice, encouraging students to think deeply about the structure and processes of math.

You may already have decided which students will benefit from Explorations in Math based on your knowledge
of your students. If you have not, here are some suggestions:

1. Find or design a suitable pre-assessment when you begin a new unit of study. Knowing which students
already understand the math concepts and/or processes of the unit will help you to identify students
who need more rigor in their studies. Don’t expect perfection, but do look for outliers.
2. Remember that some students may not demonstrate understanding on a pre-assessment because they
are unfamiliar with the topic. However they may learn the new material rapidly and need a challenging
alternative to keep them engaged.
3. Don’t rule students out because of behavior problems. Keep in mind that some of those behaviors may
be the result of a lack of engagement with grade-level materials.

We recommend the following in order make the most effective use of these materials:

1. Set up an area that supports students’ efforts to work independently. This area should have math tools
such as a calculator, ruler, protractor, graph paper, etc. Students will also need access to a computer
and/or appropriate print reference materials (such as a math text, dictionary,) and writing and drawing
materials. Some Explorations require other resources such as specific books. These were selected
only if we thought they were readily available. You may wish to gather these in advance.

2. Explorations are designed to be replacement learning activities for students who need more rigor. But,
they can also be offered as extension and enrichment alternatives. Students working on Explorations in
Math can do so without disrupting the class. For example, if you are reviewing material some students
have mastered, those students can be working on an Exploration. Research shows that extensions
that build on classroom learning or address a student interest area have the greatest impact.

3. The “Steps to Success” indicate stopping points where students are directed to check with you before
continuing. Use these check points to help them refine their work to be as comprehensive and
complete as you expect. Do not hesitate to have them dig more deeply.

We have intentionally used somewhat sophisticated vocabulary because so many published materials have
been oversimplified. However, feel free to adapt these materials to make them accessible, particularly for your
second language learners.

Student Directions

1. Read through the whole project before you begin.

2. Read and sign the “Exploration Expectations.”

3. Create an “Exploration Folder” that includes:

• a copy of the Exploration you have chosen
• a journal for research, notes, project plans, etc.
• an Exploration Evaluation Rubric
• an Exploration Work Log
• an Exploration Research Log if needed

4. Complete your Exploration by

• following the Steps to Success for your Exploration
• responding to the Questions of Mathematical Practice
• recording your work on the Exploration Work Log
• turning in your project for evaluation by your teacher
• making arrangements to share your work with others

Exploration Expectations
Working on an Exploration requires you to work independently and demonstrate maturity and self-
reliance. You agree to follow these guidelines when you are working on your Exploration.

While working on my Exploration project I agree to follow these rules:

1. I will focus on my Exploration work.
2. I won’t interrupt the teacher while s/he is teaching.
3. If I need help, I will
a. keep trying on my own or
b. ask an available adult or another student who is working on an Exploration or
c. do some more investigating on my Exploration topic.
4. I will not call attention to myself or boast about my opportunity to work on an
Exploration.

If I can’t follow these rules, I may be asked to participate in teacher-led activities with the rest of the
class.

Signed: ____________________________________________________

Teacher’s signature: _________________________________________

Adapted from Teaching Gifted Kids in the Regular Classroom by Susan Winebrenner, copyright © 2001. Free Spirit
Publishing Inc., Minneapolis, MN.

Exploration Work Log

Name:__________________________________________

Date What I Did Today What I’ll Do Next Time


Name_______________________

Title of Exploration____________________________________
You can learn information about a topic by using many resources. Write down all the resources you
used to learn about your topic.

Research Log

Title of source Author Type of source1

1
Types of sources
Book Encyclopedia Video Interview
Magazine Manuscripts Website Historical Fiction
Photographs Personal Visit (i.e.museum, Recordings (audio or Journals, letters,
etc.) visual) diaries


TEACHER VERSION: Exploration Evaluation Rubric
Name__________________________________
Advanced
Element In addition to the criteria listed
under “Satisfactory”
___Student investigated the topic
at a rigorous level.
___Organization of learning was
exemplary.
Steps to
___Student responses to
Success
Questions of Mathematical
Practice were exceptional
and demonstrated complex
thinking.
___Student demonstrated an
advanced understanding of
Math the math concepts in the
Exploration.
Concepts &
Proficiencies ___Student applied precise
math vocabulary.
___Math was accurate.
___Project demonstrated depth
and complexity of
mathematical thinking.
Final ___Project had “wow” factor.
Product ___Project was attractive and
polished.
___Student shared project with
enthusiasm.
___Student was diligent in
Habits of his/her learning.
Learning ___Student showed initiative in
pursuing new information.
Comments:
Title of Exploration________________________________
Satisfactory
___Student followed all the
Steps to Success and
checked in with teacher as
requested.
___Student used appropriate
resources.
___Student organized learning
in a way that enabled
him/her to complete the
Exploration.
___Student responses to
Questions of Mathematical
Practice were thoughtful.
___Student demonstrated an
understanding of the math
concepts in the Exploration.
___Student used math
vocabulary appropriately.
___Student used math tools
appropriately.
___Math was mostly accurate.
___Project was original work.
___Project was organized, neat,
and easy to understand.
___Math and writing were proof-
read and edited for errors.
___Student answered questions
about the project with ease.
___Learning/Research Log
were complete.
___Progress on the Exploration
was steady and timely.
___Student worked well
independently.
Needs Improvement
___Student only followed some
of the Steps to Success.
___Information gathered was
unorganized, incomplete or
missing.
___Student responses to
Questions of Mathematical
Practice were lacking in
depth.
___Student demonstrated an
incomplete understanding of
the math concepts.
___Student did not consistently
use math vocabulary.
___Student did not consistently
use math tools as needed.
___Math was not always
accurate.
___Some aspects were not
original.
___Project was disorganized
and/or difficult to
understand.
___Project contained some
errors.
___Student could not answer
questions about the project
comfortably.
___Learning/Research Log
were incomplete
___Work was completed hastily
or at the last minute.
___Student had difficulty
working independently.

STUDENT VERSION: Exploration Evaluation Rubric
Name___________________________________
Advanced
Element In addition to the criteria listed
under “Satisfactory”
___I challenged myself to
complete the project at my
highest level.
___My learning was highly
Steps to
organized.
Success
___My responses to the
“Questions of Mathematical
Practice” showed deep
thinking.
___I showed a complete
understanding of the math
Math concepts in the Exploration.
Concepts &
___I applied precise math
Proficiencies
vocabulary.
___My math was accurate.
___My project demonstrated
advanced mathematical
thinking.
Final ___My project made people say
Product “Wow!”
___I was excited and prepared
to share my project with
others.
___I worked hard to complete
this Exploration as well as I
Habits of could.
Learning ___I was interested enough to
look for further information
on my topic.
The best part of working on this Exploration was…
Title of Exploration_______________________________
Satisfactory
___I followed all the “Steps to
Success” and checked in
with teacher as requested.
___I used appropriate
resources.
___I organized my learning in a
way that let me complete the
Exploration.
___My responses to the
“Questions of Mathematical
Practice” were thoughtful.
___I showed a good
understanding of the math
concepts in this Exploration.
___I used math vocabulary
appropriately.
___I used math tools
appropriately.
___My math was mostly
accurate.
___My project was all my own
work.
___My project was organized,
neat, and easy to
understand.
___I proof-read and edited my
math and writing.
___I could easily answer
questions about my project
when I shared it with others.
___My “Learning Log” and
“Research Log” were
complete.
___My progress on the
Exploration was steady and
on time.
___I worked well independently.
Needs Improvement
___I only followed some of the
“Steps to Success.”
___The information I gathered
was unorganized,
incomplete or missing.
___My responses to the
“Questions of Mathematical
Practice” did not show much
thought.
___I didn’t show that I fully
understood the math
concepts in this Exploration.
___I did not consistently use
math vocabulary.
___I did not consistently use
math tools.
___My math was not always
accurate.
___Some parts of my project
were not my own work.
___My project was disorganized
and/or difficult to
understand.
___My project contained several
errors.
___I could not easily answer
questions about my project.
___My “Learning Log” and
“Research Log” were not
done completely.
___My work was done at the
last minute.
___I had some difficulty working
independently.