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Predictive Maintenance Optimization for Aircraft

Redundant Systems Subjected to Multiple
Wear Profiles
Wlamir Olivares Loesch Vianna and Takashi Yoneyama

Abstract—Researchers and industry practitioners have recently HA Health assessment.

demonstrated great interest in maintenance planning since it di- LKF Linear Kalman filter.
rectly impacts the lifecycle cost and availability of systems. Consid- LNS Large neighborhood search.
ering the aviation industry, this impact is even more relevant due
to high-availability expectations from aircraft operators and high MC Monte Carlo.
costs incurred when an aircraft becomes out of service. For this MEL Minimum equipment list.
reason, some minor maintenance activities are carried out near MLE Maximum likelihood estimation.
the gate, between two consecutive flight legs. These activities are MM Multiple model.
referred to as aircraft line maintenance. The usage of prognos- PA Prognostics assessment.
tics and health management techniques may help the prevention
of unexpected events when caused by degrading components. The PHM Prognostics and health management.
application of prognostics techniques together with a line main- RUL Remaining useful life.
tenance planning optimization approach is not a trivial task and SD State detection.
requires sophisticated mathematical approaches especially when SKF Switching Kalman filter.
dealing with complex and integrated systems. This paper proposes TAT Turnaround time.
a methodology for predictive line maintenance optimization of re-
dundant aeronautical systems subjected to multiple wear condi- T/S Troubleshooting.
tions. Degradation trends and future wear values are estimated TTF Time to failure.
considering an implementation of a multiple model approach of UKF Unscented Kalman filter.
the extended Kalman filter technique. Planning optimization is
based on the minimization of operational costs comprising several I. INTRODUCTION
aspects of the aviation industry such as dispatch requirements, de-
N AIRLINE flight operation department needs an efficient
lays, cancellations, and equipment costs. A case study is conducted
using field prognostics data of hydraulic systems to evidence the
efficiency and benefit of the proposed methodology.
A planning system in order to successfully manage its ex-
pensive assets. Considering that, operational research plays a
Index Terms—Optimization, planning, predictive maintenance, major role in the airline industry’s tactical planning [1]. Most
prognostics and health management (PHM), redundancy. of the applications in the literature dealt with the following
activities [2]:
1) the schedule preparation, when airlines identify a list of
NOMENCLATURE flight legs along with departure and arrival times;
AG Advisory generation. 2) the fleet assignment problem;
AOG Aircraft on ground. 3) the aircraft routing area;
APU Auxiliary power unit. 4) the disruption recovery problem, whose objective is to
CBM Condition-based maintenance. react to all operational disruptions.
DA Data acquisition. The maintenance planning and more especially the predictive
DM Data manipulation. maintenance planning was also addressed in the literature.
EKF Extended Kalman filter. Examples include decision support for inventory resources
EOL End of life. [3], optimized inspections [4], and storage life prediction [5].
GSE Ground support equipment. Decision support methods that used PHM information to
improve maintenance planning were included in [6]–[10];
however, they dealt with an individual component without
Manuscript received June 21, 2016; revised September 26, 2016 and Novem- considering that it is part of a larger system. Maintenance op-
ber 30, 2016; accepted February 7, 2017.
W. O. L. Vianna is with Empresa Brasileira de Aeronáutica S.A., São José timization for integrated components in systems was included
dos Campos 12227-901, Brazil (e-mail: wlamir.vianna@embraer.com.br). in [11] and [12]; however, functional dependencies between
T. Yoneyama is with the Department of Electronic Engineering, Instituto components were not addressed.
Tecnológico de Aeronáutica, São José dos Campos 12229-900, Brazil (e-mail:
takashi@ita.br). According to [13], although the increasing progress, most of
Digital Object Identifier 10.1109/JSYST.2017.2667232 these approaches had limitations. GO/NOGO decisions were

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2 IEEE SYSTEMS JOURNAL
not directly supported and the academic demonstrators so far
supporting this kind of functionality had limited intelligence
without concurrently taking into consideration relevant parame-
ters such as possible flight delays, cost consequences, and actual
RUL of aircraft systems and components.
In [14], a method was proposed to minimize the component
replacement cost under a safety constraint and considering the
overall system-level RUL estimated by means of the system
architecture information and PHM data. In this specific appli-
cation, some operational costs that drive line maintenance deci-
sions were not considered, including delays, flight cancellation,
and operational costs due to dispatch requirements.
In [15], a methodology was proposed for line maintenance
strategy optimization using an LNS algorithm that takes into
account the T/S tasks, the flight plan, resources availabil-
ity, and the health condition of components. In this specific
application, the objective was to minimize operational costs
due to delays and flight cancellation caused by component
failures.
The integration of PHM techniques with maintenance deci-
sion represents the basis of the CBM concept. Such integration
should consider not only PHM results but also other operational
aspects of the airline, which represent a challenging activity
especially when dealing with complex and integrated systems.
This paper proposes a method to optimize the maintenance plan-
ning of redundant systems subjected to multiple wear conditions
and RUL estimates considering several operational aspects of
an airline with associated costs. Also, a prognostic method is
presented to estimate degradations and their future estimates
assuming different wear profiles of redundant systems or com-
ponents. This method consists of a set of nonlinear wear models
estimated using a nonlinear version of the Kalman filter and
integrated in an MM approach.
The main novelties of this paper are described as follows:
1) the development of a method to prognose systems contain-
ing multiple wear profiles by means of an MM approach;
2) the development of a method to identify the wear model
of a degrading component under not fixed operational
intervals by means of the EKF;
3) the development of a method to optimize the maintenance
planning of aeronautical degrading systems considering
economical and certification requirements of typical air-
lines such as dispatch requirements, inventory conditions,
TAT, among others;
4) the development of an integrated methodology for fail-
ure prognostics and optimal aircraft maintenance plan-
ning using RUL distributions, degradation estimates, and
wear models taken from the prognostics algorithm to es-
timate future operational costs and consequently optimal
maintenance decisions.
This paper is organized as follows. Section II describes the
failure prognostics methodology for multiple wear profiles and
variable degradation estimation interval using an MM approach
and the EKF method. Section III describes the method for pre-
dictive maintenance planning optimization, including coverage,
assumptions, constraints, and objectives. Section IV presents a
case study application using field data of redundant hydraulic
systems. Section V presents concluding remarks and future re-
search opportunities.
II. FAILURE PROGNOSTICS METHODOLOGY
The main goal of a PHM system is to estimate the health
state of the monitored equipment and forecast when a failure
is expected to occur [16]. In this context, a key element for
the prognostic approach is the estimation of the probable TTF
or the RUL [17]. Considering that uncertainties are intrinsic
to prognostics as it comprises predicting future health states,
the RUL estimation procedures shall require models involving
random variables with associated probability distributions.
According to [16], the prognostics methods could be classi-
fied into two different groups. The first group named model-
based methods relies on the availability of a good dynamic
model of the system. Such models can be derived using physi-
cal modeling principles or the model can be determined using
online parameter estimation and system identification methods.
Application examples were included in [18]–[21]. The model-
based methods cover the physics of failure fundamentals, which
identify more accurately the source element of fault and con-
sequently its prescriptive actions. The method proposed in this
paper can be classified by this group of methods.
In contrast to the model-based approach, the data-driven tech-
niques rely primarily on process and PHM data (data from sen-
sors specifically designed to respond to fault signals) to model
the relationship between fault features or fault characteristic
indicators and fault classes. They require a sufficient database
(both baseline and fault conditions) to train and validate such
diagnostic algorithms. They lack the model-based physics of
the failure mechanism approach, but they do not require accu-
rate dynamic models of the physical system under study. Works
such as [22]–[24] are application examples of this category of
techniques.
A possible approach for model-based prognostics is to use
discrete-time Bayesian methods and, more specifically, optimal
filtering techniques such as the Kalman filter and its extensions.
Application of optimal filtering techniques in PHM relates to
fault prognostics and RUL estimate. An example was included
in [25], in which an LKF was used to build the RUL proba-
bility distributions considering the history of degradation esti-
mates and an MC technique application. Alternatives to the MC
method was found in [26], in which the unscented transform was
considered. Prognostics applications using the nonlinear version
of the Kalman filter and other MC based methods were included
in [15] for the EKF, in [27] for the UKF, and in [28]–[30] for
the particle filter. A comparison of filter-based approaches for
prognostics was found in [31]. The usage of these types of tech-
niques, when compared to other static methods such as linear
or polynomial regression, allows a better capture of the wear
dynamics of equipment [32] and also helps the elimination of
spurious data. The implementation of these techniques requires
some parameter choices, such as the covariance matrices of
the noises, which influences the performance results. Heuris-
tics for the selection of these parameters were found in [15]
and [26].
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VIANNA AND YONEYAMA: PREDICTIVE MAINTENANCE OPTIMIZATION FOR AIRCRAFT REDUNDANT SYSTEMS 3

For aeronautical system applications, where flights frequen-
cies are not constant and consequently degradation and damage
estimates are collected in not fixed time intervals, the methods
proposed in [25] can no longer be used. In order to overcome this
problem, an alternative approach is presented in Section II-A.
A. Failure Prognostics for Variable Estimation Intervals
Using the Extended Version of the Kalman Filter
The Kalman filter was initially proposed in [33] and is a
recursive filter using noisy and even incomplete measurements
to estimate the states of a linear system in the time domain.
The implementation of the Kalman filter for failure prognos-
tics considering fixed time intervals was proposed in [25]. In
this application, a linear prognostic model was considered and
is described as follows:
 
11
xwear k = x + wwear k −1 (1)
0 1 wear k −1
 
zwear k = 1 0 xwear k + vwear k (2)
where xwear k represents, at interval k, the dynamic of the degra-
dation or any state condition indicating component degradation.
Examples of degradation conditions include compressor effi-
ciency differences from nominal levels, rotating component vi-
bration levels, and gas turbine exhaust temperature differences
from their nominal levels. xwear k (1) is the actual value of the
degradation condition and xwear k (2) is its rate of decrease (or
increase) per time interval. We observe that this model repre-
sents a linear trend, and if one wish to build a higher order
model, one or more states should be included. The parameter
wwear k −1 represents the process vector noise and vwear k the
measurement vector noise. The parameter zwear k represents the
actual degradation condition estimate (observation).
For the LKF implementation, at each observation step, it is
necessary to first define the covariance matrices of process noise
Qwear k and measurement noise Rwear k . Equations (3) and (4)
show a proposal for their definition:
 
0 0
Qwear k = (3)
0 qwear
Rwear k = [rwear ].
The parameter qwear must be defined during the filter imple-
mentation. The higher its value, the higher will be the estimation
variance of degradation rate and faster will be the identification
of changes in the degradation rate. An example of how this pa-
rameter influences estimations will be illustrated in Section IV.
Similarly, the parameter rwear must also be defined during the
filter implementation and is related to the degradation condition
estimation variance.
Once the prognostic model is found, it can be used to estimate
future degradation conditions and, consequently, RUL distribu-
tions together with the MC method. TTF or EOL samples are
then found considering a certain degradation condition thresh-
old or operational limit and, finally, RUL distribution fit into
a certain probability distribution model (i.e., Weibull). Some-
times, when redundant systems are being equally monitored, it
is necessary to estimate the integrated EOL distribution for both
systems, for instance, when two of three redundant systems
reach a certain degradation condition or any of all redundant
systems reaches an operational limit. To accomplish that, it is
necessary to model these logics at the MC method for the EOL
simulations. These distributions are defined in current work by
RULc , in which label c indicate the respective EOL condition.
Section IV demonstrates an example of this process.
Considering the situations where degradation estimation in-
tervals are not fixed (i.e., when samples are taken at each fight
leg), or missing observations are present, the current method can
no longer be applied. To solve that problem, a possible approach
would be to define a fixed small time interval (i.e., 1 hour or
1 day), run the filter for each time sample and for those inter-
vals in which no observation is collected, and simply propagate
states and variances. This solution has some drawbacks such
as the necessity to establish a fixed time interval or resolution
and the increased computational cost taken from the filter to
propagate states and variances several times for long intervals
without observation. An alternative solution that mitigates these
drawbacks is the development of a nonlinear model with the
inclusion of the observation interval as model input. Equations
(5) and (6) describe this model:
xwear k = fk (xwear k −1 , Δtk , wwear k −1 )
= xwear k −1 (1) + xwear k −1 (2)Δtk + wwear k −1 (5)
zwear k = gk (xwear k , vwear k )
= xwear k (1) + vwear k (6)
where Δtk is the degradation condition estimation interval,
which is here represented as model input. Notice that this model
is not linear and the LKF can no longer be used. To solve that,
the EKF introduced in [34] is invoked. The EKF is probably the
most popular Bayesian estimation for nonlinear systems. It is
based on the linearization of the model equations to allow the
application of the LKF to nonlinear systems.
The partial derivatives matrix (Jacobian) resultant of the lin-
earization process is described follows:
  
(4) ∂f (xk −1 , uk −1 , wwear k −1 )  1 Δtk
 = (7)
∂xk −1 x k −1 = x̂ k−−1
0 1

∂g(xwear k , vwear k )   
 = 10 (8)
∂xwear k x w e a r k = x wˆe a r − k −1
ˆ k−−1 is the a priori (predicted) state estimate at in-
where xwear
stant k − 1. The resulting linearized model is described follows:
   
10 x̂w−ear k −1 (2)
xwear k = xwear k −1 + Δtk (9)
01 0
 
zwear k = 1 0 xwear k . (10)
An important observation relates to the process noise
wwear k −1 definition, which in this case is not fixed and de-
pends on the input variable Δtk . Considering that, the process
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4 IEEE SYSTEMS JOURNAL

noise matrix Qwear k becomes During the filter recursive execution of all models, likeli-
  hood and probabilities can be estimated. In current work, an
0 0 autonomous MM is considered, where each model is filtered
Qwear k = (11)
2
0 Δtk qwear individually. The only exception relates to the fact, in current
work, states and variances are not fused, so they are not shared
where qwear is the same as expression presented in (3). between the different models.
Now, the linearized prognostic model is defined; the EKF can Consider a set of M models and the following variables as the
be implemented and the prognostics model estimated. measurement prediction error z̃ki and covariance Ski at instant k
So far, only a first-order polynomial model was considered for for model i ∈ M :
the component wear profile. Section II-B introduces an MM ap-
z̃k = zk − H x̂k−
(i)
(16)
proach, in which more models are introduced and fused in order
to improve the robustness and precision when the components Sk = HPk− H T + R
(i)
(17)
or systems are subjected to different wear profiles.
where H is the linearized measurement  matrix of the prognos-

B. MM Approach for Wear Profile Identification tics model ∂ g (x w∂exawr ke a,vr kw e a r k )  −
, x̂k− is the a priori
x w e a r k = x wˆe a r k −1
During the development of the prognostic algorithms, a fre- (predicted) state estimate at instant k, Pk− is the a priori covari-
quent common problem consists of choosing the most adequate ance error matrix, R is the covariance matrix of the measurement
(i)
model to best represent the wear dynamic of the component. So- noise, and Sk is the covariance prediction for model i at instant
lutions for that include the application of MM algorithms such k.
as the one implemented in [32], where a helicopter tail gearbox The likelihood function of model i is given in
bearing was monitored considering three possible degradation (i)  (i) (i) 
dynamics: stationary trend, linear trend, and polynomial trend. Lk = N z̃k , 0, Sk . (18)
Another application example was included in [35], where an Consider also the mode probability as the weight assigned
interacting MM was used to identify abrupt wear conditions in to the output of each filter inside the algorithm. This weight
a servovalve. provides an indication at time k of how probable the current
The techniques that combine different models using a Kalman model is compared to the other ones. Its estimation is presented
filter are called SKFs. The methods used in SKF applications as follows:
include autonomous MM, generalized pseudo-Bayesian of first (i) (i)
order, generalized pseudo-Bayesian of second order, interacting (i) μk −1 Lk
μk =  (j ) (j )
(19)
MM, among others. An implementation and comparison of sev- j M μk −1 Lk
eral of these method was presented in [36] with application in
(i)
target tracking. where μk is the probability of model i at instant k. The mode
Consider, besides the linearized model presented in  (j )
probability is normalized so that iM μk = 1.
Section II-A, a second-order polynomial trend of degradation Now, each model estimates and probabilities are found; they
whose model is described in (12) and (13), in which xwear k (1) can be compared in order to identify the most suitable prognostic
is the actual value of the degradation, xwear k (2) is its rate of model given the degradation data collected.
decrease (or increase), and xwear k (3) is the “acceleration” of At each estimation, a decision is made to keep at the same
the degradation model or to move to another one with higher probability. This
⎡ ⎤ (i)
decision is based on the probabilities μk multiplied by a model
1 1 0
⎢ ⎥ transition probability matrix as expressed in (20), in which πj i
xwear k = ⎣ 0 1 1 ⎦ xwear k −1 is the model transition probability. The model chosen for states
0 0 1 (i)
and variances estimates is the one with higher value of μT k
⎡ − ⎤  (j )
x̂weark −1 (2) (i)
μT k = μk πj i . (20)
⎢ − ⎥
+⎢ ⎥
⎣ x̂weark −1 (3) ⎦ Δtk + wwear k −1 (12) j M

0 In current work, values of matrix π are defined in as follows:

⎡ ⎤
  0.5 0.25 0.25
zwear k = 1 0 0 xwear k + vwear k . (13) ⎢ ⎥
π = ⎣ 0.25 0.5 0.25 ⎦. (21)
Also, a stationary degradation trend condition can be mod- 0.25 0.25 0.5
eled. Its representation is included in (14) and (15), whose state
xwear k has only one element representing the degradation itself, The identification of the most probable wear profile does not
improve only current and future degradation estimates, but also
 
xwear k = 1 xwear k −1 + wwear k −1 (14) provides better guidelines for predictive maintenance planning.
  Section III describes the planning optimization methodology
zwear k = 1 xwear k + vwear k . (15) adopted in current work.
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VIANNA AND YONEYAMA: PREDICTIVE MAINTENANCE OPTIMIZATION FOR AIRCRAFT REDUNDANT SYSTEMS
III. MAINTENANCE PLANNING OPTIMIZATION METHODOLOGY
The planning optimization problem in this work focuses on
the line maintenance of aeronautical systems. According to [37],
line maintenance was defined as any unscheduled maintenance
resulting from unforeseen events, or scheduled checks where
certain servicing and/or inspections do not require specialized
training, equipment, or facilities. Considering the prognostics
results presented in Section II, the predictive maintenance plan-
ning optimization problem is formulated over the next para-
graphs.
Consider an individual aircraft with a set of redundant compo-
nents or systems being monitored by a certain health monitoring
algorithm. Also, consider that components may have different
wear profiles. Degradation or operational thresholds are defined
for each system or integrated systems, and once these limits are
reached, a certain maintenance or operational activity must be
performed. Considering the redundant aspect of the components
or systems, different activities must be performed depending on
the number of degraded components.
The objective of the planning optimization problem is to plan
maintenance and operational activities, so all dispatch require-
ments are satisfied as well as other operational constraints (i.e.,
logistics, environmental) and overall expected costs minimized.
In current work, the following costs are considered.
1) Residual component cost due to preventive removal of
fully degraded or faulty components. This cost is defined
in (22), in which tn is the actual time, tplan is the planned
preventive removal of the component, Ccomp is the total
cost of the component, and fsch is the preventive removal
interval according to the maintenance plan
Cres = Ccomp (tn − tplan )/fsch . (22)
2) Aircraft cancellation cost CAOG given by the unavailabil-
ity of the required equipment or personnel to perform an
activity associated with a triggered degradation threshold.
This event is usually defined as AOG, and in order to
satisfy all dispatch requirements, a maintenance activity
must be performed immediately. If the base where the
aircraft is located does not have the required resources to
perform this activity, next flight must be canceled unless a
modification on the fleet network is performed by assign-
ing other aircraft to substitute the grounded one. In current
work, it is assumed a fixed network and every AOG event
without resource results in flight cancellation.
3) Aircraft additional operational cost CM EL given by op-
erational procedures required to be performed when the
aircraft operates under certain degrading or faulty condi-
tions. These procedures are frequently defined as MEL
tasks. Examples include flying only below certain altitude
or with the APU turned on. In current work, it is defined
that every MEL condition must not persist for more than a
certain interval limit (i.e., three days). Also, it is assumed
that CM EL is proportional to the time that the aircraft op-
erates under this condition, as expressed in (23), in which
Cop is the operational additional cost per time interval,
trepair is the date when the aircraft is repaired or expected
5
to be repaired, and tevent is the time when the MEL con-
dition became evident or is expected to occur considering
the prognostics results
CM EL = Cop (trepair − tevent ). (23)
4) Flight delay cost Cdelay given by aircraft unavailability
due to maintenance activities ended after next departing
time. An illustration of this type of event is when a repair
is performed, for instance, the replacement of an actuator,
and the aircraft only became serviceable after the depart-
ing time of next flight. In current work, it is assumed that
Cdelay is proportional to the delay time as expressed in
(24), in which Δtrepair is the required time to perform the
maintenance task, ΔtTAT is the time available to perform
maintenance activities during the current TAT, and Cdisr is
the cost per time of a delayed aircraft. The same assump-
tion of a fixed network is valid for this event. Also, we
observe that the proposed expression does not consider
the occupancy level and destination of the delayed flight
Cdelay = Cdisr (Δtrepair − ΔtTAT ). (24)
5) Degradation cost Cdeg caused by the component opera-
tion under degrading condition. Examples include engines
consuming more fuel due to lower efficiencies and de-
graded electric motors consuming more electric power.
The expression that defines Cdeg is given by (25), in
which Deg(t) is the degradation model estimated from
the method described in Section II, CE i is the integral
cost index, and CE d the absolute cost index, often associ-
ated with component repair cost at shop facility
 t repair
Cdeg = CE i Deg(t)dt
tn
+ CE d (Deg(trepair ) − Deg(tn )) . (25)
6) Aircraft repair cost Crepair consisting of all necessary op-
erational support expenses to perform the repair of the
aircraft due to the component failure. This support may
include personnel expenses to replace a faulty component,
GSE, among others. It is assumed that the root cause and
associated repair tasks of degrading conditions are known.
In other words, no T/S activities are required to isolate the
fault. T/S planning optimization methods can be found
in [38]–[40]. Also, a proposal for integration of the T/S
activities with prognostics data for planning optimization
can be found in [15].
7) Servicing cost Cserv , which is associated with basic line
maintenance activities that may reduce the component
degradation without changing wear condition (degrada-
tion rates). Examples of servicing activities include wash-
ing gas turbines, replacing lubricants, and cleaning filters.
It is possible to observe by comparing the scope of costs
being optimized from this work and from other references, such
as [14] and [15], that a broader approach is considered in current
study, which makes the decision-making process more reliable
and, consequently, asset management more efficient.
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6 IEEE SYSTEMS JOURNAL

Operational parameters used in the planning optimization

method include the planned aircraft arrival times for each leg,
consisting of an array F , available time for maintenance at each
flight leg in F , represented as an array TAT, and two Boolean
arrays Hr and Hs indicating for each flight leg if its current
base has all required resources to perform the aircraft repair and
servicing.
Other necessary parameters for the optimization problem in-
clude the repair time Δtrepair as previously mentioned and Δtserv
indicating the time necessary to perform the servicing activity.
In current work, it is assumed that these intervals are fixed inde-
pendently of place and date, parallelization is allowed to perform
maintenance activities for different redundant components, and
it is not possible to split an activity to be performed in different
bases. Also, it is assumed that after the repair of a component
or system, degradation will be set back to its nominal level and
any servicing activity does not change the wear profile of a
component.
Dispatch conditions for MEL and AOG or, in other words,
the requirement of additional operational procedures or imme-
diate maintenance procedures are listed at logic sentences given
by CondM EL and CondAOG . Just for illustration, (26) shows
an AOG condition example given by the logic of both redun-
dant components 1 and 2 above degradation threshold l1 or any
component degradation above threshold l2 , in which l1 and l2
are degradation condition thresholds. For every MEL condition,
an expiration interval is given by LimM EL , in which an aircraft
repair must be performed within this expiration interval
CondAOG = {(Deg1 > l1 ) ∧ (Deg2 > l1 )}
∨ {(Deg1 > l2 ) ∨ (Deg2 > l2 )} .
The estimation of Cdeg requires all redundant components
wear models. These models are obtained by the method pre-
sented in Section II, and they are given by state estimates
xwear k . The estimation of AOG and MEL events is given by the
RUL distributions of EOL simulations during the MC method
process described in Section II-A. These distributions are de-
fined as RULM EL and RULAOG , as previously mentioned in
Section II-A.
Given all previous model parameters, prognostics results, and
premises, the predictive maintenance
n i optimization
n i problem
 can
be formulated as choosing t
i=1 repair ; t
i=1 serv that min-
imizes the overall operational cost Ctotal given in (27), in which
tirepair is the planned date to repair redundant component i, tiserv
is the planned servicing date of redundant component i, and n
is the total number of redundant components

n
 
i i i i
Ctotal = Cres + Cdeg + Crepair + Cserv
i=1
+ CAOG + CM EL + Cdelay .
 iAlso, the minimization problem must satisfy the constraints
trepair ∈Hr ; tiserv ∈ Hs ; tirepair − tievent <LimM EL ∀i ∈ [1 n].
The above formulation consists of a combinatorial optimiza-
tion problem. In current work, it is assumed that the number of
feasible solutions is relative low, allowing an exhaustive search
Fig. 1. Integration process of the prognostics and maintenance planning anal-
ysis.
Algorithm 1: Planning Search Algorithm.
output: plan
cost ← ∞;
n
forall tirepair ; tiserv i=1 in TAT(1 : thor ) do
if [tirepair ]ni=1 ∈ Hr and [tiserv ]ni=1 ∈ Hs and
[tirepair − tievent ]ni=1 < LimM EL then
 n
ifC( tirepair ; tiserv i=1 ) < cost then
 n
cost ← C( tirepair ; tiserv i=1 );
i n
plan ← trepair ; tiserv i=1 ;
end
end
(26) end
strategy. If during the implementation of above problem, the pro-
posed exhaustive strategy presents to be impracticable, approx-
imation heuristics can be invoked, such as the LNS proposed
in [15], ant colony optimization in [14], and genetic algorithm
in [41].
The combinatorial search algorithm is represented in
Algorithm 1, in which the function C estimates n the cost Ctotal
given a certain planning condition tirepair ; tiserv i=1 and thor rep-
resents the planning horizon of the algorithm (i.e., four days
from now).
The integration approach of the prognostic and planning op-
timization analysis is to sequentially, for each flight, update the
prognostic model and then plan (or replan) the maintenance ac-
tivities based on new estimations. This process is represented in
Fig. 1.
Considering the integrated maintenance optimization previ-
ously described, some drawbacks may occur to maintenance if
(27) the prognostic results present incorrect values. If degradation
is underestimated, the expected value of Cdeg would be lower
than actual values, which would result in higher operational
costs due to excessive degraded operating conditions. Also, if
RUL is underestimated, the aircraft may also operate under not
proper conditions if a MEL or AOG condition (CondM EL and
CondAOG ) was not properly identified. On the other hand, if
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VIANNA AND YONEYAMA: PREDICTIVE MAINTENANCE OPTIMIZATION FOR AIRCRAFT REDUNDANT SYSTEMS 7

Fig. 2. Aircraft hydraulic systems architecture. Fig. 3. Degradation features case studies.

degradation or RUL is overestimated, the component may be

removed prematurely increasing the residual component cost
Cres , repair cost Crepair , and possibly Cdelay or CAOG . Servicing
cost Cserv may also be higher if a servicing task is performed
prematurely, and CM EL would be higher if the aircraft operates
under MEL conditions unnecessarily.
A numerical application using field data of this integration
process is presented in Section IV for the analysis of three hy-
draulic systems pumps whose external leakages are monitored.

IV. HYDRAULIC PUMP LEAKAGE CASE STUDY

In order to demonstrate the methodology proposed in
Sections II and III, field data are collected from aircraft hy-
draulic systems subjected to different wear profiles. A general
perspective of these systems is represented in Fig. 2. There are
three independent systems that generate hydraulic power for all
hydraulic actuators of the aircraft. Considering their redundant
topology, a failure in only one system will not compromise the
operation of actuators.
The proposed degradation condition is a hydraulic level fea-
ture described in [42]. The condition is associated with a normal-
ized level of the hydraulic reservoir based on the compressibility
and thermal expansion model of the fluid and actuator states. On
such a system, reservoir minimum level limits are established
as well as their influence on dispatch conditions. Also, level
features are collected once at each flight. A degradation feature
decrease (normalized level) is associated with leaking condition
on any component of the hydraulic system. Considering that all
systems are segregated, a leakage in one system does not affect
the other ones.
In this paper, six case studies are considered for different
aircraft. Their normalized levels are presented in Fig. 3. In all
situations, degradation were caused by hydraulic pump external
leaking condition. The identification of the leaking location was
performed during the preflight check.
It is possible to see from Fig. 3 that in case 1, levels were
almost stationary for all three systems, indicating low leaking
Fig. 4. TAT and resources availability for each leg.
conditions. Conditions from case 2 indicate increased leaking
condition from system 1 and steady conditions for systems 2 and
3 although low values are present for system 3. For case 3, an
sudden leaking condition is observed for system 1 around day 13
probably caused by a severe operating condition or maintenance
intervention. The same situation is observed for system 1 from
case 4. Considering case 5, an increased leaking condition is
observed for system 1 and a more severe condition for system
2 after day 17. This condition change could be explained by a
sealing fault caused probably by an extreme operating condition
or wrong maintenance intervention. Finally, case 6 presents both
leaking conditions from system 1 after day 10 and system 2 in all
analyzed time frames. The variables TAT and Hr indicating the
time available for maintenance at each base and the resources
availability for repair are presented in Fig. 4, in which each dot
or circle represent a flight leg, the y-axis, the TAT available for
that specific flight leg, and the shape indicating if the leg has
at its ending destination all resources to perform maintenance
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8 IEEE SYSTEMS JOURNAL

TABLE I
CASE STUDY PARAMETERS

Parameter Value

Degradation q w e a r 0.01
Degradation rate q w e a r 0.01
Degradation acceleration q w e a r 0.1
rw e a r 8
C comp /f sch 0.02
CA O G 1
C op 0.1
C disr 1e − 3
Δ t repair 0.4
Δ t serv 0.05
CE i 0
CE d 0.01
C repair 0.03
C serv 0.03
LimM E L 3
CondA O G (l 1 < 25) ∧ (l 2 < 25) ∧ (l 3 < 25)
CondM E L ( l˙1 < −2) ∧ ( l˙2 < −2) ∧ ( l˙3 < −2)

Fig. 5. Degradation condition estimates for each model filter.

(solid circle for having all resources and gray point for not
having resources).
In this case study, the repair activity is defined as the pump
replacement and servicing as filling the reservoir. Also, Hs is set
true for every instant (servicing can be performed in all bases).
All other parameters used in this case study are presented in
Table I, in which li is the degradation condition (normalized
reservoir level) of system i and l˙i its rate of decrease (leakage).
Results for the implemented solution presented in Fig. 1 are
presented next, in which Section IV-A contains the prognostics
results and Section IV-B the maintenance planning optimization
results.

A. Pump Leakage Prognostics

Considering the degradation conditions presented in Fig. 3
and the implementation of the EKF for all three wear mod-
els (stationary, linear, and polynomial), state results for each
model filtering process and most significant cases are presented
in Fig. 5. We observe that the stationary model cannot handle
properly variations in degradation conditions given its station-
ary representation as their results (dotted lines) diverge from
observed results (bold lines) for all nonstationary conditions .
Also, the linear model takes more time to identify abrupt feature
variation when compared to the polynomial model filter as evi-
denced by results from both models in case 3 system 1 around
day 13, case 4 system 1 around day 22, and case 5 system 2
around day 17. The late identification of severe leaking con-
ditions may compromise operational costs, as during a longer
period of time, the aircraft is operating in a degrading condition.
The rate estimates for both linear and polynomial model fil-
tering process are presented in Fig. 6. Same as previous obser-
vations, the polynomial model presents higher variances but can
identify better variations in degradation rates as observed by its
great variation at increased leaking condition (i.e., case 3 system
1 around day 13). On the other hand, the polynomial model pre-
sented higher variance in steady leaking conditions compared to
Fig. 6. Degradation rate estimates for each model filter.
the linear model. This increased variance may prejudice results,
as it may be a maintenance activity lead without necessity.
The acceleration estimates for the polynomial model filtering
process are presented in Fig. 7. We observe that when the system
presents either abrupt changes in degradation or variations in its
rate, the filter manages to identify these conditions correctly.
In all previous results, process noises (qwear ) are the same as
the ones defined in Table I. The proper definition of these pa-
rameters is essential to achieve precise and responsive results.
As expressed in Section II-A, lower values of qwear reduce result
variances with the impact of lower responsiveness and higher
values increase the responsiveness as well as result variances.
To illustrate this tradeoff, Fig. 8 shows degradation rate esti-
mates of one specific system and several values of qwear . Notice
that the filters with higher process noise values manage to de-
tect the abrupt leaking condition more quickly, but also present
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VIANNA AND YONEYAMA: PREDICTIVE MAINTENANCE OPTIMIZATION FOR AIRCRAFT REDUNDANT SYSTEMS
Fig. 7. Acceleration estimates for each model filter.
Fig. 8. Degradation condition rate estimates for several process noises values
in system 2 for case 5.
increased variations in stationary conditions. From these re-
sults, it is possible to see that this parameter must be properly
defined, so variations are minimized as well as responsiveness
maximized.
The model probabilities estimations considering the MM
method presented in Section II-B for same examples in Fig. 5
are exhibited in Fig. 9. It is possible to observe from results that
the MM method can identify higher stationary probability for
case 1 for system 1 although its values are close to other models.
This can be explained by the capability of all models to fit the
stationary conditions. Also, linear models have higher probabil-
ities in most of the conditions of cases 4–6 for system 1. Only
at the initial moments when the model is still settling and when
abrupt changes are verified, the stationary and polynomial have
higher probabilities, respectively. The proper model probability
estimation increases the correct model assignment at the MM
algorithm and consequently the precision of degradation and
RUL estimations.
RUL analyses for same definition of CondAOG in Table I are
performed considering the MM approach for each degradation
estimation of all cases. The RUL probability distributions are
estimated by same proposed method in Section II-B with 1.000
simulations at the MC method process and a Weibull distribution
9
Fig. 9. Model probability estimates.
Fig. 10. RUL estimates.
model fitted considering an MLE algorithm. Results are pre-
sented in Fig. 10 considering an 85% confidence interval for the
RUL distributions. The error bars represent the RUL estimates
at each date and the solid line the actual RUL. Case 1 result is
not presented because no simulation of the MC method reaches
the CondAOG within the analyzed time frame. In case 3, an
abrupt change in the degradation condition is observed around
day 12, taking longer for the prognostics algorithm to identify
this variation and provide RUL estimates closer to actual values.
In case 4, a variation in RUL estimates is observed around day
20 also due to an abrupt change in degradation. Besides these
variations, the prognostics algorithm could estimate correctly
the failure date, as in most of the cases, the bold lines (true
RUL) lay inside the error bars (estimated RUL).
B. Servicing and Pump Removal Planning Optimization
Given the previously defined parameters, input degradation
data, and prognostics results, the maintenance planning process
was performed, and results are presented over the next para-
graphs.
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10 IEEE SYSTEMS JOURNAL

TABLE II
SERVICING PLANNING RECOMMENDATIONS

Case / System Date

Case 2 System 1 11.1

Case 2 System 3 8.8
Case 3 System 1 12.6
Case 3 System 2 12.5
Case 4 System 1 21.9
Case 4 System 2 25.7
Case 5 System 1 22.7
Case 5 System 2 21.7
Case 6 System 1 19.1
Case 6 System 2 22.0

Fig. 12. Previous accumulated costs considering a reactive approach.

TABLE III
REACTIVE AND OPTIMAL STRATEGY RECOMMENDATION

Case Optimal Cost Reactive Cost

Case 1 0.038 0.038

Case 2 0.33 0.33
Case 3 0.27 0.49
Case 4 0.68 1.1
Case 5 0.56 1.7
Case 6 0.74 0.98

Case 5 presents several recommendations of repair of system 2

Fig. 11. Repair planning results with associated degradation conditions.
First, the servicing planned activities defined by the algorithm
are presented in Table II. Notice that in no situation the planning
algorithm recommended to perform a servicing activity only
after an AOG condition (CondAOG ) is established (any level
below 25% according to Table I).
The repair planning recommendations and comparison with
degradation levels are given in Fig. 11. Cases 1 and 2 were
omitted since the planning algorithm did not recommend any
activity. Upper graphs for each case exhibit the features levels
and lower graphs show the maintenance recommendation. Each
sample from the lower graph indicates a maintenance recom-
mendation. The x-axis indicates when the algorithm gave the
recommendation and the y-axis the recommended date taken
from the date when the algorithm gave the recommendation. A
planning horizon (thor ) of 4 days is defined.
Analyzing case 3 results, several repair recommendations of
system 1 are observed due to an abrupt change in degradation
around day 12. In case 4, repair recommendations are observed
for both system 1 and system 2 due to high levels of leakage.
due to an increased leakage condition evidenced around day 17.
Case 6 presents some repair recommendation of system 2 due to
increased leaking condition. In all cases with recommended ac-
tions, early recommendations were not immediate (planned date
higher than 0), making possible for maintenance personnel pre-
ventively schedule and prepare themselves for the maintenance
activity, preventing so unforeseen events.
The expended costs are presented in Fig. 12. This graph shows
the overall accumulated cost at each flight considering a reac-
tive approach in which no maintenance is performed. We ob-
serve that costs are divided only into operational (CM EL ) and
leakage or degradation cost (Cdeg ). The last one increases dur-
ing the most severe leaking conditions as the aircraft is operating
under MEL conditions (CondM EL ). Considering that in a reac-
tive approach no maintenance is performed, all other costs, such
as Crepair , Cres , and Cdaley are null.
Considering the optimal maintenance planning recommen-
dation, an accumulated overall cost is estimated and compared
to the reactive maintenance strategy (no maintenance is per-
formed), as presented in Fig. 12 . This result is presented in
Table III for each case study. We observe that all optimal strate-
gies present lower costs with the exception of the two first cases
studies, where no maintenance activity is proposed, and conse-
quently, both strategies present the same results. Also, higher
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VIANNA AND YONEYAMA: PREDICTIVE MAINTENANCE OPTIMIZATION FOR AIRCRAFT REDUNDANT SYSTEMS
economies from optimal strategy is observed for conditions with
severe degradation conditions and, consequently, operational
costs as illustrated in case 5 in which costs reduced from 1.7
to 0.56.
V. CONCLUSION
The main purpose of this work is to propose a method to
identify degradation and their future estimates considering a
multiple wear profile scenario and then integrate their results
into a maintenance planning optimization algorithm for aero-
nautical redundant systems. The prognostic algorithm is based
on a nonlinear version of the Kalman filter (EKF) and further
integration with an MM technique to fuse three different wear
profiles models. The proposed maintenance planning algorithm
uses the prognostic model to estimate future operational costs
as well as probability distributions for disruptions and other
operational requirements. The optimization algorithm objective
is to minimize a function composed of several costs including
MEL, cancellation, delay, repair, equipment, and servicing ac-
tivities. Some constraints are also considered such as resources
availability, TAT, and dispatch requirements. The combinatorial
search algorithm utilized in this work is based on the exhaustive
search method.
In order to evidence the benefit of the proposed approach,
a numerical example is performed utilizing field data of three
aeronautical hydraulic systems. A previously explored health
monitoring algorithm which estimates leakage is utilized. Since
the collected data contain different wear profiles, the MM ap-
proach can be broadly explored. Planning optimization is per-
formed, results are presented, and benefits are evidenced con-
sidering prevented operation losses.
Opportunities for further work include the incorporation of
T/S tasks to the planning optimization process as well as inte-
grating the decision-making process for different components,
systems, and aircraft.
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IEEE SYSTEMS JOURNAL
Wlamir Olivares Loesch Vianna received the bach-
elor’s degree in mechanical engineering from the Uni-
versidade de São Paulo, São Paulo, Brazil, in 2005,
and the master’s degree in aeronautical engineering
from the Instituto Tecnológico de Aeronáutica, São
José dos Campos, Brazil, in 2007.
He has been with Empresa Brasileira de
Aeronáutica S.A. (EMBRAER), São José dos Cam-
pos, since 2007. He is a Development Engineer of an
R&T group with EMBRAER, where he is focused
on prognostics and health management technology
applications in aeronautical systems.
Takashi Yoneyama received the bachelor’s degree in
electronic engineering from the Instituto Tecnológico
de Aeronáutica (ITA), São José dos Campos, Brazil,
the M.D. degree in medicine from the Universidade
de Taubaté, Taubaté, Brazil, and the Ph.D. degree in
electrical engineering from the University of London,
London, U.K., in 1983.
He is a Professor of control theory with the Depart-
ment of Electronic Engineering Department, ITA. He
has authored or co-authored more than 250 papers,
has authored 4 books, and has supervised more than
50 theses. His research is concerned mainly with stochastic optimal control
theory.
Dr. Yoneyama was the President of the Brazilian Automatics Society from
2004 to 2006.