Modelling and Analysis e-SIM in Indonesia

Ajib Setya Aritin, Andrianus Pradipta, Dadang Gunawan

Electrical Engineering Department
niversitas Indonesia
Depok, Jawa Barat, Indonesia
ajib@eng.ui.ac.id, andrianus.radipta@ui.ac.id,guna@ee.u.i.ac.id

Abstract-Group Special Mobile Association (GSMA) has set

a new standard related to embedded Subscriber Identity Module
(e-SIM) technology . The application of these technologies aim » ~~II:D
I ....... _ _ ...--lo=.

to support the needs of new services such as Machine to -~.--

Machine (M2M) and Internet of Things (loT). Currently several

smart phone manufacturers such as Apple and Samsung start I·

to implement the technology to their products. Provisioning of .. IOI~--

cellular services in Indonesia are not evenly distributed, both

the scope and qualit~' of its network and the difficulty when
customers switch services. Based on the potential benefit of e-
SIM, we investigate implementation e-SIM in terms of the Dum- I

ber of subscriber, Average Revenue per User (ARPU), and cost

production. We forecast the number of subscriber using S·curve
model, while ARP and cost production using Qnadratic models.
We show there are only 19 million new subscribers between 2015-
2020 if Indonesia do not implement e·SIM. However, the new
subscribers are being double if Indonesia implement e·SIM in
the same period. Moreover, ARPU are estimated being large as
Indonesia implement e-SIM because e-SIM enables loT devices.
Keywords-e-SIM, forecasting, snbscriber, ARPU, cost produc-
tion
I. I TRaDUCTION
Indonesia is an archipelago which consists of tllousand
islands. Telecommunication infrastructures are not distributed
equally resulting unequal different signal coverage in every
city. We can see from www.opensignal.com the different signal
coverage between Jakarta, me capital city, and Jayapura, city
of West Papua province are shown in Fig. I and 2 [I]. We
can see me number of operators providing service is also
different. In .Tayapura, there is only one operator available.
This makes difficulty when a visitor has different operator
which is not available in Jayapma. The visitor should buy a
new SIM card and makes new registration. Those processes
are inconvenience unless e-SIM technology is available.
There are some advantages of e-SIM investigated in
[2][3][4]. Author in [2] provides the multiple altemative solu-
tions to this installation and also describe the SIM evolutions
i.e. eUICC and soft SIM to give a comprehensive view
of me SIMs situation. The thesis also presents the security
assessment of these evolutions which are different witll the
current removable SIM. Authors in [3] analyzes altemative
value network configurations (VNCs) that can emerge around
the remote subscription management. The VNCs are con-
SU"ucted by identifying important roles, actors serving mese
roles, and business links between the actors. In particular, the
research defines three alternative configurations driven by three
different actors: a SIM card vendor, a mobile operator, and a
Fig. I. Signal Coverage in Jayapura [I].
-, ..
•
'4)
o
o
••
Fig. 2. Signal Coverage in Jakarta [I].
third-party M2M connectivity provider. In [4] this paper fo-
cuses on new concepts for SIM management (SIM: Subscriber
Identity Module) in the M2M domain from a sub cription
management perspective in order to develop an economic
MCIM provisioning process (MCIM: M2M communication
identity module).
In mis paper, we investigate implementation of e-SIM
from three point of views, i.e. subscriber, ARPU, and cost
production of SIM card in Indonesia. We forecast me growing
of subscriber, ARPU, and cost production in Indonesia. We
also show the potential benefits implementing e-SIM such as to
enable loT services and to increase new subscribers. In section
II, we explore the forecast models. In section III, we present
the data of subscriber, ARPU, and cost production of SIM
card in Indonesia. In section IV, we select the best forecast
model given the data in section III. We show me results and
discussion in section V, and we conclude our paper in section
VI.

978-602-50431-1-6/17/$31.00 ©20 17 IEEE 276 2017 15th IntI. Conf. QiR: IntI. Symp. Elec. and Com. Eng
 II. FORECASTING MODEL TABLE I
NUMBER OF CELLULAR SUBSCRIBER IN INDONESIA
There are two model of Forecasting Method,Le. Objec-
tive Forecasting and Subjective Forecasting. Trend Projection ~ Number of Subscriber
method is one of the Objective based Time Series Forecasting 2005 45.759.453
Method. Trend Projection method predicts the trend of an 2006 61.829.639
actual data into a form of projection that represents the state 2007 87.90-1.422
in the future. The resulting output is a Trend Projection of a 2008 127.826.246
data. In this paper Trend Analysis method is used to determine 2009 146.(}.I9.201
the model of subscribers, ARPU and cost for the SIM card. 2010 178.140.0CXl
There are 4 types of the most common methods of fittings or 2011 205.117.0CXl
Trend Analysis Trend Equation [5], i.e. : 2012 229.446.0CXl
2013 251.613.0CXl
A. Linear Model 201-1- 263.386.0CXl
Linear model can be used to forecast data when time series 2015 26-l.441.0CXl
data show increasing or decreasing linearly. This model can
be expressed as TABLE 11
ARPU OPERATORS IN INDONESIA

s = f3o+ (f31 x t) (I)

~ ARPU(IDR)
where s is linear variable, t is time period, f30 and f31 are 2005 71.371
constant and coefficient, respectively. 2006 63.3..\ I
2007 59,9-1-0
B. Qlwdratic Model 2008 -1-4,880
2009 -1-0,-1--1-3
Quadratic Model can be used to forecast data when time
2010 36,90..\
series data show quadratic increasing and decreasing. This
2011 33,127
model is formulated as
2012 31.691
s = f30 + (f3, x t) + (f3'l x t2) (2) 2013 30.505
2014 30.733
where f3'l is quadratic coefficient. 2015 34.337

C. EJ.poneminl Model
Exponential model is used to forecast data when trend of A. Darn of Subscriber
the data increases or decreases exponentially. The model can Subscriber is an active user of an cellular operator. Based
be expressed in on the annual report of the three operators in Indonesia. we
show the number of subscriber in Indonesia as in Table I. We
(3) can see that the increasing subscriber is almost double from
2005 to 2007.
We can see that the amount of data is proportional to power
We collect the data from three operators in Indonesia.
or time series.
B. ARPU
D. S-curl'e Model ARPU is the average income of the operator of each user I
S-surve model can be used to forecast data when the data customer. Based on the annual report of the three operators
tend to be saturated. This model has the following expression, in Indonesia, Table 11 shows the data ARPU operator in
Indonesia. We present the data ARPU in Indonesia Rupiah
10"
, - -;;----';0'---= (4) (IDR).
- f30 + f3, X f3'lt We can see in Table II that ARPU decreases from 2005 to
where 0: = In lend mIlle - firsl mlilel. 2015, which the lowest point in 2013.
C. Cost Productiol/ oj SIM Card
III. DATA OF SUBSCRIBER, AVERAGE REVENUE PER USER
We define Cost Production of SIM Card as the cost required
(ARPU), AND COST PRODUCTION OF SIM CARD
by the operator to produce a SIM Card. The average cost
In this section we present the data of Subscriber, Average production of SIM Card shows in Table Ill. We obtain the
Revenue Per User (ARPU), and Cost Production of SIM Card. data from 2005-2015 in lOR.
We show range the data from 2005 until 2015 [6]. We use We can see from Table III that cost production of SIM
those data to forecast those for the incoming years. card decreases linearly from 2005 until 2013. However, the

277
 TABLE 1Il TABLE V
COST PRODUCTION OF SIM CARD IN INDONESIA MAPE. MAD. AND MSD OF ARPU

~ Cosl I'roduction a SIM Card Model MAPE MAD 1\ISD

2005 1,400 Linear II ..\.534 2..\.503.86..\
2006 1,375 Quadralic 2 1,176 3.810,..\7..\
2007 1,350 Exponenlial 8 3.355 13.150.200
2008 1,325 S-curve 9 6.103 199.393.81..\
2009 1.300
2010 1.275
2011 1.250 TABLE VI
2012 1.225 MAPE. MAD. AND MSD OF COST PRODUCTION

2013 1.200
201..\ 2,400
1\lode! MAPE ~ MAD ~ MSO
Linear 13.77 33.3 2.1 X1021
2015 2,375
Quadralic 10.73 2.5 x 10 10 9.7x10 21
Exponemial 11,73 29.6 2,lx10 21
TABLE IV
MAPE. MAD. AND MSD OF COST PRODUCTION OF SIM CARD IN
INDONESIA
TABLE VII
Mudd ~ l\L\PE ~ MAD ~ MSO COST PRODUCTION OF SIM CARD IN INDONESIA
Linear 6.8..\ 1.1 xl0 7 1.6x 10 14 ~ Foreetsl ('-SIM Glob'll (million)
Quadralic 7.69 9.0 x 106 I.Ix10 14
2013 16-1.258
Exponenlial 17.07 34 2.lx10 15
201..\ 190.8..\2
S·curve 2.22 3.1 x 106 1.8x 10 13
2015 223.9..\2
2016 260.-131
cost production becomes double from 2013 to 2014. This 2017 303.5..\7
phenomena occurs due to 4G which requires a new type of 2018 353.86-1
SIM card. 2019 ..\12.038
2020 ..\78.838
IV MODEL SELECTION
In this section, we select the best model that we can use to
forecast Data of Subscriber, ARPU. and Cost Production of TABLE Vlll
COST PRODUCTION OF SIM CARD IN INDONESIA
SIM Card in the future. We user three parameters Le. Mean
Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE),Mean Absolute Deviation }'oreC'dsl ('-SIM in Indonesia
(MAD), and Mean Squared Deviation (MSD). The best model
2016 11,875,65..\
is the model that give the smallest value of MAPE, MAD, and
2017 13,8..\1.7-H
MSD.
2018 16.136.198
A. DaUl of Subscriber 2019 18.788.933
We show computation result of MAPE, MAD, and MSD 2020 21.835.013
for Data Subscriber among the models as shown in Table IV
From Table IV, we can see that the model gives the smallest
MAPE and MSD is S-curve. Event tough. MAD value is not three models. From Table VI, we can see that Quadratic has
the smallest but it is smaller than that of Linear and Quadratic. the smallest value for MAPE and MSD among them. Based
B. ARPU on these value we prefer Quadratic as the model to forecast
Cost Production in the future,
We present computation result of MAPE, MAD, and MSD
for ARPU among the models as shown in Table V, From Table Furthermore, we compute the number of cellular subscriber
IV, we can see that the model that gives the smallest MAPE, if Indonesia implement e-SIM. Since Indonesia have not
MAD, and MSD is Quadratic. implemented e~SIM, we use forecast data for global e-SIM as
shown in Table VII l7}. To estimate e-SIM in Indonesia, we
c. Cost Pmdl/Ctioll of SIM Card compute the global e-SIM forecast data with the ratio between
We compute MAPE, MAD, and MSD of Cost Production cellular subscriber in Indonesia and cellular subscriber over the
as shown in Table VI. We only compute for Linear, Quadratic, world, with the average ratio of them being 4.56 % between
and Exponential models. Base of he trend of the data, it is not 2011-2015. Using the average ratio we can estimate the e-SIM
suitable for using S~curve model. Hence, we show only for subscriber between 2016-2020 as shown in Table VIII. 17}.

278
 35 80.000

70.000
30

'"
~
~ 25
60.000

;:: " 50.000

::
to 20 ~ 40.000
0-
~ cr: -Actual
~ ..: 30.000
-Forecasr
~ 15 ......... AcnmJ

.""
'Il
"- 20.000
_Forecasr
.0 10
10.000
e
z=

0'--------------------
_,,'? ~"b _,,'\ ~'b ~"1 "I::> ,,'- ,,'\.
"v"- '\.'3" "v'3" '" "vl:j '"'~ l'
<"
"b- ,,'? "b ,,'\ ,,"I ('vI::> <"
"vI::> '\.1::> "vI::> .,,1::> "v":l '\.":l '\.":l "v":l ",":l
Fig. 4. Actual and Forecasting ARPU in Indonesia Rupiah (lOR).
Vear

4.375
Fig. 3. Actual and Forecasting number of subscriber in Indonesia.
'E 3.750
a
is 3.125
V. RESULTS AND DISCUSSION
'"~ 2.500
In this section we show results of forecasting from three "c
data, i.e. Data of Subscriber, ARP , and Cost Production. t: 1.87; ~Acnlal
.g
_Forecast
We can see from Fig. 3 that the actual data forecast data are ~ 1.250
overlapped in many points. We use S~curve model because d 625
it gives the best result in terms of MAPE and MSD among
Linear, Quadratic, and Exponential models. Fig. shows _,,':: ..<:\"' ..<:\'" ..<:\'0 _,,'1 ,<:> ,.... ,"" ", ~ ,,':: "b 00 . .'0,,0, _~
that subscriber growth is not significant from 2015. This ""~o~o~",,~,,,,~~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~
Yeal"
phenomenon is due to the number of subscriber in Indonesia
greater than the number of total population, i.e. 257.9 milUou Fig. 5. Actual and Forecasting Cost Production of SlM Card (lOR).
in 2016 [8].
In Fig. 4, we show the trend of ARP is quadratic with 350

the lowest point in 2013 being IDR 30,796. However, ARPU .e·SIM
300
increa<;es as 4G becomes more popu]ar and wider in terms of ? .SIM Card
.9
coverage. Moreover, smart phone capable 4G is also getting '= 250
.§.
cheaper, many people experience 4G and spend more money t
~ 200
for data communication. The increasing data communication ]
per user is estimated getting large when e-SIMis implemented ~ 150

driven by Intemet of Things (loT). "

] 100
§
Fig. 5 shows the actual and forecast of SIM card cost :>:
50
production. We can see that the cost production decrea<;es
from 2005 until 2013, where cellular technology evolutes from
2G to 3G. Those periods, SIM card uses 32K technology. ",,&" ",,&"' '> ~ ",&'0 ",# 0'»"'' ' "'<:>...... "'<:>...... ,>"", _,"''' """,..." ...",..." ' ",<;;-0 0'»",'0 ",,,,...'1 ",,,,,,,,,,
However, once 4G arrives, the SIM card cost production Year
increases due to use of 64K technology.
Fig. 6. Forecast SubscIiber SlM Card and e-SlM.
Fig. 6 shows forecast subscriber of SIM card and e-SIM. We
can see that tbe implementation of e-SIM is able to increase
the number of subscriber. In 2020, we estimate more than 21 historical data from 2005. We . elected the appropriate model
million e-SIM capable devices. Those number comes from that based on three parameters, i.e. Mean Absolute Percentage
loT devices become more popular. Error (MAPE),Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD), and Mean
Squared Deviation (MSD). We used S-curve model to forecast
VI. CONCL SION
future subscriber, Quadratic model to forecast ARPU and
In this paper we investigated an implementation of e-SIM in cost production of SIM card. Moreover, We showed that
Indonesia from three point of views, i.e. subscriber, Average the number of subscriber increases slowly after 2015 and
Revenue Per User (ARP ), and cost production of SIM almost saturated after 2019 to 2020. However, there would be
card. We foreca<;ted of three point of views until 2020 given more than 21 million new subscriber in 2020 if Indonesia

279
implemcntcd e-SIM. The new subscribers come from loT
deviccs which will be standard on the next 5G.
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