Storm Prediction in the Digital Age: A

Technological Exploration for the National

Weather Service
Saul Moreno-Avila

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Contents
Abstract 3

Current State of Technology in Storm Prediction 3

Impact of Technology on Storm Management: Case Studies 4

Hurricane Harvey - Focusing on the role of radar technology. Formatted: Font: (Default) Times New Roman, 12 pt
Formatted: Indent: Left: 0.25", No bullets or
Hurricane Michael - Discussing the use of Geographic Information Systems (GIS).
numbering
Satellite Technology during the 2019 Mozambique Cyclones Formatted: Normal, Indent: Left: 0.25"

Opportunities for Technological Advancements 5

Modern Hurricane Tracking Methods Formatted: Font: (Default) Times New Roman, 12 pt

Role of IoT in Disaster Management Formatted: Font: (Default) Times New Roman, 12 pt
Formatted: Normal, Indent: Left: 0.25", No bullets or
AI and ML in Weather Prediction
numbering
Prospects and Challenges Formatted: Normal, Indent: Left: 0.25"

Societal Benefits and Implications 6

• Practical Measures for Disaster Management Formatted: Font: (Default) Times New Roman, 12 pt
• Role of AI and Satellite Technology in Storm Management Formatted: List Paragraph, Bulleted + Level: 1 +
Aligned at: 0.25" + Indent at: 0.5"
Conclusion and Recommendations 7

References 8

Figures
Figure 1 4
Figure 2 5
Figure 3 7

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Abstract
Storms, in their many forms, have a profound impact on the surrounding environment. Their
destructive potential is colossal, causing massive damage to infrastructure, disrupting
communities, and often resulting in tragic loss of life. Furthermore, storms carry significant
economic consequences, disrupting industries, agriculture, and transportation systems. With the
onset of climate change, the frequency and severity of these meteorological phenomena are
predicted to rise, presenting an urgent need for advanced, accurate prediction systems. Effective
forecasting can aid in preparation and potentially mitigate the dire impacts these formidable
natural events often bring, making it a significant factor in our adaptation to an increasingly
storm-prone future.
The very first hurricane warning service likely came into effect in the early 1870s. Father Benito
Vines, the director of the Meteorological Observatory of the Royal College of Belén in Cuba,
established a network of observation sites and developed the first method to predict tropical
cyclone movement (“Hurricane Tracking Technology: Advancements and Opportunities, 2023).
The urgent need for advanced, accurate prediction systems has become increasingly significant
in our adaptation to a future that is predicted to be more storm prone. This paper will explore the
current state of technology in storm prediction, its impacts as evidenced through case studies, the
potential for future technological advancements, and the societal benefits and implications of
these developments.
This paper will explain the transformative impact of these technologies through case studies,
such as Hurricane Harvey in 2017 and Hurricane Michael in 2018. It further explores the
potential for future advancements, including the promising intersections of artificial intelligence
(AI), machine learning (ML), Internet of Things (IoT) devices, and Geographic Information
Systems (GIS) in storm management. With these technological advancements come societal

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benefits, such as improved safety measures, efficient communication, and strategic response to
natural hazards.

Current State of Technology in Storm Prediction

Accurate storm prediction is crucial for public safety, environmental management, and economic
planning. It provides critical time for preparations that can minimize damage and save lives. One
of the most significant tools in the arsenal of meteorologists is radar technology, which has
undergone remarkable advancements over the decades. Understanding the capabilities and
evolution of radar technology is essential to appreciate the current state of storm prediction.
Today, scientists use several tools to monitor weather events and track hurricanes on the ground,
in the sky, and from space. Aircraft, satellites, drones, and unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) are
only some of the solutions that help forecast and track hurricanes. Researchers use data from
satellites and other devices to develop sophisticated models that predict important factors about
hurricanes, such as intensity (“Hurricane Tracking Technology: Advancements and
Opportunities, 2023).

Impact of Technology on Storm Management: Case Studies

In an era characterized by technological advancement and innovation, the integration of
technology into storm management strategies has proven instrumental in mitigating the
devastating effects of severe weather events. The following case studies highlight the
transformative impact of technology in forecasting, monitoring, and managing storms, drawing
from real-world examples to demonstrate how these advanced tools can indeed save lives, reduce
damage, and expedite recovery efforts.
Hurricane Harvey - Focusing on the role of radar technology Formatted: Font: Bold

The critical role of technology becomes starkly apparent when studying the case of Hurricane
Harvey, a devastating event that brought record-breaking precipitation to the Gulf Coast in 2017.
In an article, studies were conducted to fully grasp the accuracy of different precipitation
measurement products such as the Multi-Radar Multi-Sensor system (MRMS) and the Global
Precipitation Measurement Mission (GPM), both of which provided vital data during this
catastrophic event. Through rigorous analysis, it was found that the MRMS family of products
had the highest correlation coefficient and the lowest root-mean-square error (RMSE) when
compared to local rain gauge observations, suggesting that this system was most accurate in
predicting and measuring precipitation. On the other hand, the GPM IMERG product family was
found to be less accurate. The EF5 modeling framework combined with current remote sensing

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technologies (IMERG and MRMS) can provide a robust flood-early-warning system for real-
time operational uses at the regional, continental, and even global scale (Chen, Mengye, et al,
2020).

Figure 1. Chen, Mengye, et al, 2020. Accumulated precipitation from 25/08/2017 to 31/08/2017 during the
Hurricane Harvey event in Harris County, TX. Hourly data from (a) Multi-Radar Multi-Sensor (MRMS) quantitative
precipitation estimates (QPE), (b) MRMS Corr, (c) V06AUncal, (d) V06ACal, and (e) NCEP gauge-only.

Hurricane Michael - Discussing the use of Geographic Information Systems (GIS). Formatted: Font: Bold

The successful deployment of Geographic Information Systems (GIS) technology during

hurricane events is also evident in Leon County, Florida, a region frequently afflicted by tropical
storms and hurricanes. The county's Emergency Management Personnel utilized ArcGIS
Collector, an Esri emergency management solution, for real-time, offline damage assessment
during Hurricane Michael in 2018. The new system allows for quick, adaptable response to
disaster conditions such as power outages; for example, a call reporting a downed power line
would now be funneled to the GIS desk in the Emergency Operations Center (EOC) and into the
WebEOC incident tracking system at the same time (“Improving Hurricane Response and
Recovery with GIS.”, 2023)
Satellite Technology during the 2019 Mozambique Cyclones Formatted: Font: Bold

One cannot discuss technological advancements in storm management without mentioning the Formatted: Font: Not Bold
crucial role of satellite technology. During the cyclones Idai and Kenneth, which hit
Mozambique in 2019, satellite data played an indispensable part in managing the disaster and
post-disaster recovery.
The European Space Agency's (ESA) Earth observation satellites provided crucial imagery
before and after the cyclones hit. The images offered essential information on the extent of
flooding, which aided the international response teams in prioritizing their efforts. Data from

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satellites were also used to generate digital surface models to assess the extent of the damage,
which informed the development of the recovery plan (European Space Agency, 2019).
The case of the Mozambique cyclones clearly demonstrates the wide range of applications for
satellite technology in storm management. From guiding the immediate response to informing
the recovery and reconstruction process, satellite data has proven to be a vital tool in our arsenal
for mitigating the impact of severe weather events.

Opportunities for Technological Advancements

The rapid evolution of technology in recent years offers exciting opportunities for advancements
in disaster management. These advancements have the potential to transform the landscape of
emergency response, enhancing our capacity to mitigate, prepare for, respond to, and recover
from significant weather events such as hurricanes. Scientists have built upon past advancements
in hurricane forecasting to create modern, innovative tracking methods. These solutions support
the accurate prediction of hurricane movement, protecting people and structures on the ground
and aiding rescue and restoration efforts (“Hurricane Tracking Technology: Advancements and
Opportunities, 2023).
Role of IoT in Disaster Management Formatted: Font: Bold

The recent implementation of the Probabilistic Storm Surge model improves storm surge
forecasting for the U.S. mainland, Puerto Rico, and the U.S. Virgin Islands. The model provides
forecasters with a range of potential flooding scenarios, enhancing community preparedness
(Schneider, Bonnie, 2023). The growth of IoT (Internet of Things) devices, such as smart meters
and sensors, can enhance real-time communication and data exchange during emergencies. IoT
devices collect data remotely from various sources, providing a steady stream of valuable
information for different use cases. Meteorologists use IoT sensors to monitor the status of
hurricanes, collecting data that researchers can use to support modeling and prediction. IoT
sensors can also help monitor damage to infrastructure on the ground (“Hurricane Tracking
Technology: Advancements and Opportunities, 2023).

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 Figure 2. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. (2023). Probabilistic Tropical Storm Surge 3.0.

AI and ML in Weather Prediction Formatted: Font: Bold

The innovative application of artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning (ML) in weather
prediction is proving to be a game changer in disaster management. The capabilities of these
technologies extend beyond human constraints, augmenting our ability to forecast and respond to
severe weather events. With their powerful predictive abilities, AI and ML models have shown
substantial potential in improving climate resilience, streamlining wind energy forecasting,
predicting power outages, and optimizing energy demand projections. They offer the possibility
of faster, more accurate predictions by learning and mapping directly from observed data, rather
than simulating the entire physical process like traditional physics-based models. This not only
saves significant computational resources but could also potentially account for physical
processes that are currently unknown or too computationally intensive to simulate directly.
(Lawton, George, 2022)
Prospects and Challenges Formatted: Font: Bold

As we look toward the future, it's clear that the intersection of technology and disaster
management holds great promise. To effectively harness these technological advancements in
storm prediction, we need to understand and navigate the associated challenges. These include
ensuring the accuracy of models, managing the computational cost, and effectively training the
necessary personnel to interpret and utilize the resulting data. Continual advancement in these
areas will help us fully realize the benefits of these technological tools in storm prediction and
disaster management.

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Societal Benefits and Implications

Practical Measures for Disaster Management Formatted: Font: Bold

Formatted: Font: 12 pt, No underline
As we integrate technology into our disaster management strategies, several societal benefits and
implications emerge. These advancements are not without their challenges, and while they have Formatted: Normal
the potential to revolutionize how we manage disasters, it's important to fully understand and
account for their potential impacts.
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has put forward recommendations that
may seem more mundane but are profoundly practical. They suggest better site selection for
infrastructure, constructing more robust buildings, improving drainage, and even preserving
natural barriers like mangroves. The panel also recommends enhancing our storm forecasting
abilities and improving the dissemination of warnings. The development of better road networks
is essential for enabling faster evacuation and response efforts (Withington, 2016). These
measures, while less flashy than more high-tech approaches, can contribute significantly to
disaster management and storm impact reduction.
Role of AI and Satellite Technology in Storm Management Formatted: Font: Bold

In the realm of storm management, AI and satellite technology provide essential assistance. AI
vendors train algorithms on satellite and weather data to predict the impact of storms and help
mitigate outages. Satellite AI can also aid utility companies in understanding the paths and
severity of incoming storms. This technology enables the minimization of damage, planning of
response strategies, restoration of safety to communities, and accurate communication with
response teams and local authorities. Thus, these advanced technologies are more than just tools;
they are active agents in safeguarding society against the devastation of severe storm events
(Lawton, George, 2022).
The integration of AI, 3D modeling, and GIS not only promises technological advancement but
also brings about several societal benefits. In an article, a NextTech video demonstrated two key
areas where location intelligence helps businesses in the path of natural hazards like wildfires,
storms, or hurricanes: awareness and strategic response (Martonik, Alexander, 2023). Armed
with this location intelligence, executives can focus efforts and resources on protecting the
buildings and areas most exposed to risk (Martonik, Alexander, 2023).

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Figure 3. Martonik, Alexander. NextTech: Predicting Storm Impacts with Location Analytics, AI. 2023,

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Conclusion and Recommendations
The effective implementation of the cutting-edge technologies, which include AI, machine
learning, GIS technology, the Internet of Things, and improved satellite technology, necessitates
a comprehensive and multi-faceted approach. First, an increase in investment is required from
stakeholders to support research and development, fund innovative startups, and facilitate the
deployment of these technologies in high-risk areas. Coupled with this, the development and
implementation of robust training programs are necessary to ensure that meteorologists,
emergency response teams, and relevant government agencies are proficient in using these
advanced technologies.
The introduction of cutting-edge technologies opens a plethora of possibilities for improving the
operational efficiency, accuracy, and speed of the National Weather Service's disaster
management systems. These technologies, which include AI and machine learning, GIS
technology, the Internet of Things, and improved satellite technology, have the potential to
change how we predict, prepare for, and respond to hurricanes and other natural disasters.
Beyond this, efforts should be made to raise public awareness and educate individuals about the
vital role these technologies play in storm prediction and disaster management, fostering a
culture of preparedness. Governments play a crucial role in creating a supportive policy
framework that encourages innovation, establishes standards for technology use, promotes data
sharing, and provides incentives for technological advancements in storm prediction and
management.

Finally, recognizing the global nature of climate change and weather events, international
collaboration should be championed. This could involve data sharing, collaboration on research
and development initiatives, and the exchange of best practices and technological solutions. In
executing this plan, we can build a safer, more resilient future, better prepared to predict,
manage, and mitigate the impacts of severe storms.The societal benefits of these advancements
are considerable, with the potential for saving lives, reducing property damage, and contributing
to a deeper understanding of weather patterns. However, with these advances come challenges
such as ensuring the accuracy of models, managing the computational cost, and effectively
training the necessary personnel to interpret and utilize the resulting data. Addressing these
challenges is an important part of fully realizing the benefits of these technological tools in storm
prediction and disaster management.
Formatted: Indent: First line: 0"

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References
“Hurricane Tracking Technology: Advancements and Opportunities.” IEEE Public Safety
Technology Initiative, publicsafety.ieee.org/topics/hurricane-tracking-technology-
advancements-and-opportunities. Accessed 9 June 2023.

Martonik, Alexander. “NextTech: Predicting Storm Impacts with Location Analytics,

AI.” Esri, 21 Mar. 2023,
www.esri.com/about/newsroom/publications/wherenext/nexttech-modeling-storm-
impacts/.

Withington, John. Storm. Reaktion Books Ltd, 2016

Schneider, Bonnie. “ Technological Breakthroughs in Hurricane Forecasting.”

DevOps.Com, 1 June 2023, devops.com/technological-breakthroughs-in-hurricane-
forecasting/.

Chen, Mengye, et al. “Can Remote Sensing Technologies Capture the Extreme
Precipitation Event and Its Cascading Hydrological Response? A Case Study of
Hurricane Harvey Using EF5 Modeling Framework.” Remote Sensing, vol. 12, no. 3,
Feb. 2020, p. 445. Crossref, https://doi.org/10.3390/rs12030445.

“Improving Hurricane Response and Recovery with GIS.” Leon County Improves
Hurricane Response and Recovery with GIS, 2023, www.esri.com/en-us/landing-
page/industry/public-safety/2020/leon-county-case-study.

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Lawton, George. “How AI in Weather Prediction Can Aid Human Intelligence.”
Enterprise AI, 8 Nov. 2022, www.techtarget.com/searchenterpriseai/feature/How-AI-in-
weather-prediction-can-aid-human-intelligence?Offer=abVidRegWall_gateDelay.

“Cyclone Idai West of Madagascar.” ESA, 20 Mar. 2019,

www.esa.int/ESA_Multimedia/Images/2019/03/Cyclone_Idai_west_of_Madagascar.

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