Blinken lands in China for high-stakes

visit amid rising tensions 

US Secretary of State Antony Blinken is in Beijing  for a high-stakes visit
meant to steer relations between the United States and China back on
course after months of inflamed tensions between the two nations.

Officials from both governments have signaled low expectations  for the

visit, with a senior State Department official telling reporters earlier this
week that he does not expect “a long list of deliverables.”

Instead, US officials are framing the trip as an effort to resume normal

channels of communication with China in order to avoid conflict between
two of the globe’s great powers.

“What we’re working to do on this trip is to really carry forward what

President (Joe) Biden and President Xi (Jinping) agreed to in Bali at the
end of last year, which was to establish sustained, regular lines of
communication at senior levels across our governments precisely so that
we can make sure that we are communicating as clearly as possible to
avoid, as best possible, misunderstandings and miscommunications,”
Blinken said Friday prior to his departure at a news conference alongside
Singaporean Foreign Minister Vivian Balakrishnan.

Blinken’s primary goal in China is to reestablish channels of

communication, especially direct military-to-military communication,
between Washington and Beijing, according to a senior State Department
official.

The Biden administration’s relationship with Beijing is one of its most

complicated and consequential, and one that has seen months of strain,
including two military-related incidents in recent weeks.

Blinken’s trip, which had been announced by Biden and Xi after their
meeting last year, was originally scheduled to happen in February and had
been seen as a key follow-on engagement. However, it
was postponed after the discovery of a suspected Chinese spy balloon
transiting the US, which Blinken said at the time “created the conditions
that undermine the purpose of the trip.”
However, Daniel Kritenbrink, the assistant secretary of State for East
Asian and Pacific Affairs, said Wednesday that both the US and China
came “to the shared conclusion that now is the right time to engage at this
level,” but “we’re not going to Beijing with the intent of having some sort of
breakthrough or transformation in the way that we deal with one another.”

“I think the fact that China agreed to this meeting reflects that Beijing is
feeling pretty confident about its own position,” Patricia Kim, a Brookings
Institution fellow, said at a media briefing Friday.

“Both sides make comments about the fact that this trip, this visit isn’t
going to fundamentally change the US-China relationship or resolve the
many disputes between the two countries, and I think there’s this desire
not to set expectations too high or to appear too eager to engage with the
other side. I think neither side wants to look as if they’re accepting or
acquiescing to the other’s actions,” she said.

Speaking to reporters Saturday, Biden acknowledged “legitimate

differences” with China but maintained he was willing to discuss the “areas
we can get along.”

Blinken promises to raise ‘very real concerns’

Blinken said that in his meetings with senior Chinese officials, he intends
to raise “our very real concerns on a range of issues.” Those issues
include the fentanyl crisis, Taiwan and cross-Strait issues, the war in
Ukraine, and China’s detention of American citizens, including Kai Li, Mark
Swidan and David Lin.

On the fentanyl crisis, the senior State Department official said that
Blinken’s specific focus is on stemming the flow of precursor chemicals
from China to labs in South America, where fentanyl is produced.

Blinken also said Friday he intends “to explore the potential for
cooperation on transnational challenges – global economic stability, illicit
synthetic drugs, climate, global health – where our countries’ interests
intersect and the rest of the world expects us to cooperate.”

His visit comes on the heels of a flurry of meetings between American and
Chinese officials in recent weeks.
In May, US national security adviser Jake Sullivan met with China’s top
diplomat, Wang Yi , in Vienna, followed by talks between the two countries’
commerce officials in Washington. China’s new ambassador has also
arrived in the US, vowing to enhance relations at a time of “serious
difficulties and challenges.”

“China and the US have already had relatively frequent high-level

diplomatic contacts, all of which indicate that the two sides are gradually
getting back on the right track,” said Shen Dingli, an expert on China’s
foreign policy in Shanghai.

However, contacts between the countries’ top military officials are still
frozen, and it remains to be seen whether Blinken’s visit can lead to a
breakthrough on that front. China rejected an offer for a formal meeting
between Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin and Chinese Defense Minister
Li Shangfu, who is under US sanction, in Singapore last month, although
the two did speak briefly.

The US is also due to host the leaders’ summit of the Asia-Pacific

Economic Cooperation in November, which Xi, the Chinese leader, will
attend no matter the state of the US-China relationship, Shen said.

But whether Xi’s trip will include a formal visit to the US – and at what
level – depends on “what can be done by the two sides beforehand,” Shen
said.

Biden told reporters Saturday he believed Blinken’s trip to China could

ease tensions and said he hoped to meet with Xi again over the “next
several months.”

Shen said there were two things China cared about the most: “managing
differences on the Taiwan issue and preventing supply chains from
decoupling, especially on advanced chips.”

“The hope is that Blinken’s visit can improve relations both in form and in
substance. But hope might not turn into reality, and relations might
become worse after the visit,” he added. “We prepare for the worst and
hope for the best.”

Blinken would not predict whether his visit would pave the way for
continued high-level engagements between the US and China.
“As to what comes next, let’s see how the visit goes,” the top US diplomat
said Friday, referencing comments from his Singaporean counterpart.
“This is an important but, in a sense, insufficient step because there’s a lot
of work to be done.”