Tahun Multiplier 1 Biaya Konstruksi Biaya Pengadaaan Bus

2015 0 Rp500,000
2016 1 Rp500,000
2017 2 Rp500,000 Rp218,796
2018 3
2019 4
2020 5
2021 6
2022 7
2023 8
2024 9
2025 10
2026 11
2027 12
2028 13
2029 14
2030 15
2031 16
2032 17
2033 18
2034 19
2035 20
2036 21
2037 22
2038 23
Grand Total Rp1,500,000 Rp218,796
Grand Total Benefit & Cost
NPV
B/Cost Ratio

Discount Rate Rp270,904.61

2.00%
2.50%
3.00%
3.50%
4.00%
4.50%
5.00%
5.50%
6.00%
6.50%
7.00%
7.50%
8.00%
8.50%
9.00%
9.50%
 10.00%
10.50%
11.00%
11.50%

Sensitivity on
Fuel Price Rp270,904.61
Rp1,000.00
Rp1,500.00
Rp2,000.00
Rp2,500.00
Rp3,000.00
Rp3,500.00
Rp4,000.00
Rp4,500.00
Rp5,000.00
Rp5,500.00
Rp6,000.00
Rp6,500.00

Sensitivity on
Demand
Growth Rp270,904.61
-3.00%
-2.50%
-2.00%
-1.50%
-1.00%
-0.50%
0.00%
0.50%
1.00%
1.50%
2.00%
2.50%

Sensitivity on
Overhead &
Pemeliharaan
Konstruksi Rp270,904.61
0.50%
1.00%
1.50%
2.00%
2.50%
3.00%
3.50%
 4.00%
4.50%
5.00%
5.50%
6.00%

Sensitivity on
Pemeliharaan
Bus Rp270,904.61
0.00%
0.50%
1.00%
1.50%
2.00%
2.50%
3.00%
3.50%
4.00%
4.50%
5.00%
5.50%

Sensitivity on
Perjalanan per
penumpang Rp270,904.61
1.00
2.00
3.00
4.00
5.00
6.00
7.00
8.00
9.00

Sensitivity on
upah per jam Rp270,904.61
8000.00
8800.00
9680.00
10648.00
 11712.80
12884.08
14172.49
15589.74
17148.71
18863.58
20749.94
22824.93
25107.43
27618.17

Sensitivity on
Penghematan
Waktu Rp270,904.61
0.20
0.25
0.30
0.35
0.40
0.45
0.50
0.55
0.60
0.65
0.70
0.75
0.80
0.85
Biaya Overhead & Pemeliharaan Konstruksi Biaya Pemeliharaan Bus Biaya Asuransi Bus

Rp49,235 Rp1,158 Rp206

Rp48,192 Rp1,134 Rp194
Rp47,172 Rp1,110 Rp182
Rp46,173 Rp1,086 Rp172
Rp45,195 Rp1,063 Rp162
Rp44,238 Rp1,041 Rp152
Rp43,301 Rp1,019 Rp143
Rp42,384 Rp997 Rp135
Rp41,487 Rp976 Rp127
Rp40,608 Rp955 Rp119
Rp39,748 Rp935 Rp112
Rp38,906 Rp915 Rp106
Rp38,082 Rp896 Rp99
Rp37,276 Rp877 Rp94
Rp36,487 Rp858 Rp88
Rp35,714 Rp840 Rp83
Rp34,958 Rp822 Rp78
Rp34,217 Rp805 Rp73
Rp33,493 Rp788 Rp69
Rp32,784 Rp771 Rp65
Rp32,089 Rp755 Rp61
Rp841,739 Rp19,801 Rp2,521
Rp2,999,748
Rp270,905
109.03%

Discount Rate
Rp1

Rp1

Rp0
% % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % %
00 50 00 5 0 00 5 0 00 5 0 00 5 0 00 5 0 00 5 0 00 50 0 0 5 0 0 0 5 0
2 . 2. 3 . 3. 4 . 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7 . 8. 8 . 9 . 9 . 1 0 . 1 0 . 1 1 . 1 1 .
Biaya Bahan Bakar Bus Biaya Gaji Supir Jumlah Penumpang per Hari Pendapatan tiket

Rp3,768 Rp20,932 18631.40 Rp22,016

Rp3,653 Rp20,489 24515.00 Rp28,354
Rp3,541 Rp20,055 11915.00 Rp13,489
Rp3,433 Rp19,630 8333.00 Rp9,234
Rp3,328 Rp19,214 24515.00 Rp26,591
Rp3,226 Rp18,807 24515.00 Rp26,028
Rp3,127 Rp18,409 24515.00 Rp25,477
Rp3,032 Rp18,019 24515.00 Rp24,937
Rp2,939 Rp17,638 24515.00 Rp24,409
Rp2,849 Rp17,264 24515.00 Rp23,892
Rp2,762 Rp16,899 24515.00 Rp23,386
Rp2,677 Rp16,541 24515.00 Rp22,891
Rp2,596 Rp16,190 24515.00 Rp22,406
Rp2,516 Rp15,848 24515.00 Rp21,932
Rp2,439 Rp15,512 24515.00 Rp21,467
Rp2,365 Rp15,184 24515.00 Rp21,013
Rp2,292 Rp14,862 24515.00 Rp20,568
Rp2,222 Rp14,547 24515.00 Rp20,132
Rp2,154 Rp14,239 24515.00 Rp19,706
Rp2,088 Rp13,938 24515.00 Rp19,289
Rp2,024 Rp13,643 24515.00 Rp18,880
Rp59,033 Rp357,859 Rp456,096
Rp3,270,653
Manfaat Waktu Tempuh Manfaat BOK Konstruksi
Pengadaan Bus
Overhead & Pemeliharaan Konstruksi
Pemeliharaaan Bus
Rp38,045 Rp97,812 Asuransi Bus
Rp48,999 Rp125,974 Biaya SPBG / Liter
Rp23,311 Rp59,931 Kenaikan Bahan Bakar / Tahun
Rp15,958 Rp41,026
Rp45,952 Rp118,140 Harga Tiket
Rp44,979 Rp115,638 Jumlah hari operasional
Rp44,026 Rp113,189 Rata - Rata Upah per Jam
Rp43,094 Rp110,792 Penghematan waktu per pelanggan
Rp42,182 Rp108,446 Pertumbuhan Pelanggan per tahun
Rp41,288 Rp106,149 Rata rata Armada
Rp40,414 Rp103,902
Rp39,558 Rp101,701 Jumlah Trip
Rp38,720 Rp99,548 Rata rata perjalanan per penumpang
Rp37,900 Rp97,440 Panjang rute
Rp37,098 Rp95,376 Jarak tempuh per liter
Rp36,312 Rp93,356 BBG per Tip
Rp35,543 Rp91,379 Discount Rate
Rp34,791 Rp89,444 Inflasi / Tahun
Rp34,054 Rp87,550 Gaji supir
Rp33,333 Rp85,696 Total Supir
Rp32,627 Rp83,881 Biaya per orang per hari (Baseline)
Rp788,185 Rp2,026,371 Penghematan Biaya
Rp3,270,653
Rp1,500,000,000,000.00 Rp
Rp247,000,000,000.00 Rp
3.50% Persen
0.50% Persen
0.10% Persen
4500 Rp / Liter
3.00% Persen / Tahun

Rp3,500.00 Rp
360 Hari
Rp15,000.00 Rp
0.75 Jam
0.00% Persen
100 Unit

3 Trip / Bus
5 KM
9.3 KM
1 KM / Liter
9.3 Liter
6.25% Persen / Tahun
4.00% Persen / Tahun
Rp74,400,000.00 Rp / Tahun
300 Orang
Rp19,050.00 Per hari / Orang
Rp15,550.00 per orang per hari
2011 114783824
2012 111251687 -0.030772
2013 112522624 0.011424
2014 111969896 -0.004912
-1%
Fuel Price NPV
Rp1,000.00 316,819
Rp1,500.00 310,260
Rp2,000.00 303,700
Rp2,500.00 297,141
Rp3,000.00 290,582
Rp3,500.00 284,023
Rp4,000.00 277,464
Rp4,500.00 270,905
Rp5,000.00 264,345
Rp5,500.00 257,786
Rp6,000.00 251,227
Rp6,500.00 244,668

Demand Growth NPV

-3.00% (496,757)
-2.50% (388,200)
-2.00% (272,568)
-1.50% (149,378)
-1.00% (18,111)
-0.50% 121,785
0.00% 270,905
0.50% 429,879
1.00% 599,386
1.50% 780,150
2.00% 972,944
2.50% 1,178,596

Overhead & Pemeliharaan Konstruksi NPV

0.50% 992,395
1.00% 872,147
1.50% 751,898
2.00% 631,650
2.50% 511,401
3.00% 391,153
3.50% 270,905
4.00% 150,656
4.50% 30,408
5.00% (89,841)
5.50% (210,089)
6.00% (330,337)

Pemeliharaan Bus NPV

0.00% 290,706
0.50% 270,905
1.00% 251,104
1.50% 231,303
 2.00% 211,502
2.50% 191,701
3.00% 171,900
3.50% 152,099
4.00% 132,298
4.50% 112,497
5.00% 92,696
5.50% 72,896

KM Perjalanan per penumpang NPV

1.00 (359,643)
2.00 (202,006)
3.00 (44,369)
4.00 113,268
5.00 270,905
6.00 428,542
7.00 586,179
8.00 743,816
9.00 901,453

Upah per jam NPV

8000.00 (96,915)
8800.00 (54,879)
9680.00 (8,638)
10648.00 42,226
11712.80 98,176
12884.08 159,722
14172.49 227,422
15589.74 301,893
17148.71 383,810
18863.58 473,919
20749.94 573,039
22824.93 682,071
25107.43 802,006
27618.17 933,935

Penghematan Waktu NPV

0.20 (307,098)
0.25 (254,552)
0.30 (202,006)
0.35 (149,461)
0.40 (96,915)
0.45 (44,369)
0.50 8,176
0.55 60,722
0.60 113,268
0.65 165,813
0.70 218,359
0.75 270,905
0.80 323,450
0.85 375,996
Jumlah hari operasional 360 Hari
Rata - Rata Upah per Jam Rp62,000.00 Rp
Penghematan waktu per pelanggan 0.75 Jam
Rata rata perjalanan per penumpang 4 KM
Panjang rute 14.3 KM
Jarak tempuh per liter 2 KM / Liter
Tahun Multiplier 1 Biaya Konstruksi Biaya Pengadaaan Bus
2015 0 Rp500,000
2016 1 Rp500,000
2017 2 Rp500,000 Rp187,293
2018 3
2019 4
2020 5
2021 6
2022 7
2023 8
2024 9
2025 10
2026 11
2027 12
2028 13
2029 14
2030 15
2031 16
2032 17
2033 18
2034 19
2035 20
2036 21
2037 22
2038 23
Grand Total Rp1,500,000 Rp187,293
Grand Total Benefit & Cost
NPV
B/Cost Ratio

Discount Rate -Rp0.02

7.00%
7.50%
8.00%
8.50%
9.00%
9.50%
10.00%
10.50%
11.00%
11.50%
12.00%
12.50%
13.00%
13.50%
14.00%
14.50%
 15.00%
15.50%
16.00%
16.50%

Sensitivity on
Fuel Price -Rp0.02
Rp3,000.00
Rp3,500.00
Rp4,000.00
Rp4,500.00
Rp5,000.00
Rp5,500.00
Rp6,000.00
Rp6,500.00
Rp7,000.00
Rp7,500.00
Rp8,000.00
Rp8,500.00

Sensitivity on
Demand
Growth -Rp0.02
3.00% Rp 873,457,819,722.29
3.50% Rp 1,083,303,577,454.63
4.00% Rp 1,307,264,822,169.89
4.50% Rp 1,546,311,628,742.32
5.00% Rp 1,801,480,296,750.70
5.50% Rp 2,073,877,747,330.35
6.00% Rp 2,364,686,199,684.40
6.50% Rp 2,675,168,144,101.34
7.00% Rp 3,006,671,629,278.31
7.50% Rp 3,360,635,882,751.01
8.00% Rp 3,738,597,284,286.43
8.50% Rp 4,142,195,713,203.02

Sensitivity on
Overhead &
Pemeliharaan
Konstruksi -Rp0.02
1.00%
1.50%
2.00%
2.50%
3.00%
3.50%
4.00%
 4.50%
5.00%
5.50%
6.00%
6.50%

Sensitivity on
Pemeliharaan
Bus -Rp0.02
1.00%
1.50%
2.00%
2.50%
3.00%
3.50%
4.00%
4.50%
5.00%
5.50%
6.00%
6.50%

Sensitivity on
Perjalanan per
penumpang -Rp0.02
1.00
2.00
3.00
4.00
5.00
6.00
7.00
8.00
9.00
10.00
11.00
12.00
13.00
14.00

Sensitivity on
upah per jam -Rp0.02
Rp62,000.00
Rp68,200.00
Rp75,020.00
Rp82,522.00
 Rp90,774.20
Rp99,851.62
Rp109,836.78
Rp120,820.46
Rp132,902.51
Rp146,192.76
Rp160,812.03
Rp176,893.24
Rp194,582.56
Rp214,040.82
Biaya Overhead & Pemeliharaan Konstruksi Biaya Pemeliharaan Bus Biaya Asuransi Bus

Rp38,994 Rp917 Rp163

Rp35,314 Rp831 Rp142
Rp31,981 Rp752 Rp124
Rp28,962 Rp681 Rp108
Rp26,229 Rp617 Rp94
Rp23,753 Rp559 Rp82
Rp21,511 Rp506 Rp71
Rp19,481 Rp458 Rp62
Rp17,643 Rp415 Rp54
Rp15,977 Rp376 Rp47
Rp14,469 Rp340 Rp41
Rp13,104 Rp308 Rp36
Rp11,867 Rp279 Rp31
Rp10,747 Rp253 Rp27
Rp9,733 Rp229 Rp24
Rp8,814 Rp207 Rp20
Rp7,982 Rp188 Rp18
Rp7,229 Rp170 Rp16
Rp6,547 Rp154 Rp14
Rp5,929 Rp139 Rp12
Rp5,369 Rp126 Rp10
Rp361,636 Rp8,507 Rp1,193
Rp2,261,577
Rp0
100.00%

IRR
Rp1

Rp1

Rp0
% % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % %
00 50 00 50 00 50 00 50 00 50 00 50 00 50 00 50 00 50 00 50
7. 7. 8. 8. 9. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. 14. 14. 15. 15. 16. 16.

IRR
Biaya Bahan Bakar Bus Biaya Gaji Supir Pendapatan tiket Manfaat Waktu Tempuh

Rp5,206 Rp16,578 Rp17,436 Rp64,798

Rp4,728 Rp15,013 Rp20,777 Rp77,214
Rp4,294 Rp13,596 Rp9,145 Rp33,986
Rp3,900 Rp12,313 Rp5,792 Rp21,526
Rp3,542 Rp11,151 Rp15,432 Rp57,350
Rp3,217 Rp10,099 Rp16,922 Rp62,886
Rp2,921 Rp9,145 Rp15,922 Rp59,172
Rp2,653 Rp8,282 Rp14,982 Rp55,677
Rp2,410 Rp7,501 Rp14,097 Rp52,389
Rp2,188 Rp6,793 Rp13,264 Rp49,295
Rp1,987 Rp6,152 Rp12,481 Rp46,383
Rp1,805 Rp5,571 Rp11,744 Rp43,644
Rp1,639 Rp5,045 Rp11,050 Rp41,066
Rp1,489 Rp4,569 Rp10,398 Rp38,641
Rp1,352 Rp4,138 Rp9,784 Rp36,358
Rp1,228 Rp3,747 Rp9,206 Rp34,211
Rp1,115 Rp3,394 Rp8,662 Rp32,191
Rp1,013 Rp3,073 Rp8,150 Rp30,289
Rp920 Rp2,783 Rp7,669 Rp28,500
Rp835 Rp2,521 Rp7,216 Rp26,817
Rp759 Rp2,283 Rp6,790 Rp25,233
Rp49,201 Rp153,747 Rp246,920 Rp917,626
Rp2,261,577
 Manfaat BOK Konstruksi Rp1,500,000,000,000.00 Rp
Pengadaan Bus Rp247,000,000,000.00 Rp
Overhead & Pemeliharaan Konstruksi 3.50% Persen
Pemeliharaaan Bus 0.50% Persen
Rp77,467 Asuransi Bus 0.10% Persen
Rp92,310 Biaya SPBG / Liter 4500 Rp / Liter
Rp40,631 Kenaikan Bahan Bakar / Tahun 0.50% Persen / Tahun
Rp25,734
Rp68,562 Harga Tiket Rp3,500.00 Rp
Rp75,181 Jumlah hari operasional 360 Hari
Rp70,741 Rata - Rata Upah per Jam Rp62,000.00 Rp
Rp66,563 Penghematan waktu per pelanggan 0.75 Jam
Rp62,631 Pertumbuhan Pelanggan per tahun 3.90% Persen
Rp58,932 Rata rata Armada 100 Unit
Rp55,452
Rp52,177 Jumlah Trip 6 Trip / Bus
Rp49,095 Rata rata perjalanan per penumpang 4 KM
Rp46,195 Panjang rute 14.3 KM
Rp43,467 Jarak tempuh per liter 2 KM / Liter
Rp40,900 BBG per Tip 7.15 Liter
Rp38,484 Discount Rate 14.84% Persen / Tahun
Rp36,211 Inflasi / Tahun 4.00% Persen / Tahun
Rp34,073 Gaji supir Rp74,400,000.00 Rp / Tahun
Rp32,060 Total Supir 300 Orang
Rp30,167 Biaya per orang per hari (Baseline) Rp19,050.00 Per hari / Orang
Rp1,097,031 Penghematan Biaya Rp15,550.00 per orang per hari
1,577
hari / Orang
orang per hari