Chapter 9 – Probability

Solutions to Exercise 9A
1 Toss of a coin: sample space = {H, T } b ‘More than two female students’
= {FFF}

2 Die rolled: sample space c ‘More than four aces’ = {} or ∅

= {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6}

7 ε = {1, 2, 3, . . . , 20}, n(ε) = 20

3 a 52 cards
a Let A be the event the number is
b 4 suits divisible by 2.
A = {2, 4, . . . , 20}, n(A) = 10,
c Spades, hearts, diamonds, clubs
n(A) 10 1
Pr(A) = = =
d Hearts, diamonds = red; n(ε) 20 2
spades, clubs = black b Let B be the event the number is
divisible by 3.
e 13 cards in each suit. B = {3, 6, . . . , 18}, n(A) = 6,
n(B) 6 3
f ‘Picture cards’ are Jack, Queen, King Pr(B) = = =
n(ε) 20 10
and Ace
c Let C be the event the number is
g 4 aces divisible by both 2 and 3.
C = {6, 12, 18}, n(C) = 3,
h 16 ‘picture cards’ n(C) 3
Pr(C) = =
n(ε) 20
4 a {0, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5}
8 ε = {1, 2, 3, . . . , 15}, n(ε) = 15
b {0, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6}
a Let A be the event the number is less
c {0, 1, 2, 3} than 5.
A = {1, 2, 3, 4}, n(A) = 4,
5 a {0, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 . . .} n(A) 4
Pr(A) = =
n(ε) 15
b {0, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 . . . 41}
b Let B be the event the number is
c {1, 2, 3, 4, 5 . . .} greater than or equal to 6.
B = {6, 7, . . . , 15}, n(B) = 10,
n(B) 10 2
Pr(B) = = =
6 a ‘An even number’ in die roll n(ε) 15 3
= {2, 4, 6}
c Let C be the event the number is a

328
 number from 5 to 8 inclusive. 12 ε = {A1 ,U,S,T,R,A2 ,L,I,A3 }, n(ε) = 9
C = {5, 6, 7, 8}, n(C) = 4,
1
n(C) 4 a Pr({T }) =
Pr(C) = = 9
n(ε) 15
b Pr(an A is drawn) =
3 1
13 1 Pr({A1 ,A2 ,A3 }) = =
9 a 13 clubs: Pr(♣) = = 9 3
52 4
c Let V be the event a vowel is drawn
26 1
b 26 red cards: Pr(red) = = V = {A1 ,A2 ,A3 ,U,I}, n(V) = 5
52 2 5
Pr(V) =
16 9
c 16 picture cards: Pr(picture) = =
52 d Let C be the event a consonant is
4
drawn
13
C = {S,T,R,L}, n(C) = 4
d a red picture card Pr( red picture) = Pr(C) =
4
8 2 9
=
52 13
13 Pr(1) + Pr(2) + Pr(3) + Pr(5) + Pr(6) +
10 a 36 cards < 10 : Pr(< 10) =
36
=
9 Pr(4) = 1
52 13 1 1 1 1 1
∴ + + + + + Pr(4) = 1
12 6 8 6 8
40 10 2+4+3+4+3
b 40 cards ≤ 10 : Pr(≤ 10) = = + Pr(4) = 1
52 13 24
c Even number = {2, 4, 6, 8, 10} so 20 16 2 1
∴ Pr(4) = 1 − =1− =
20 5 24 3 3
evens: Pr(even) = =
52 13
4 1 14 Pr(1) = 0.2, Pr(3) = 0.1, Pr(4) = 0.3
d 4 aces: Pr(ace) = = Pr(1) + Pr(3) + Pr(4) = 0.6
52 13
∴ Pr(2) = 1 − 0.6 = 0.4
1
11 a Pr(29 November) = 1
365 15 a Pr(1) =
3
30 6
b Pr(November) = = 1
365 73 b Pr(1) =
8
c 30 days between 15 January and 15
February, not including either day: 1
c Pr(1) =
6 4
∴ Pr =
73
d 90 (non-leap) days in the first three 16 ε = {M,T,W,Th,F,Sa,Su} n(ε) = 7
90 18
months of the year: ∴ Pr = = 1
365 73 a Pr(Born on Wednesday) =
7

329
 b Pr(Born on a weekend) = 3 23
Pr(Not Red) = 1 − =
2 26 26
Pr({Sa,Su}) =
7
2
Pr(Not born on a weekend)= 1 − = 18 ε = {1, 2, 3, 4}
7
5 Pr(1) = Pr(2) = Pr(3) = x and
7 Pr(4) = 2x.
∴ x + x + x + 2x = 1
1
17 n(ε) = 52 ∴x=
5
1
a n(Club) = 13 ∴ Pr(1) = Pr(2) = Pr(3) = and
13 1 5
Pr(Club) = = Pr(4) =
2
52 4 5
1 3
Pr(Not Club) = 1 − =
4 4
19 ε = {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6}
b n(Red) = 26
26 1
Pr(Red) = = a Pr(2) = Pr(3) = Pr(4) = Pr(5) = x,
52 2 x
1 1 Pr(6) = 2x and Pr(1) = .
Pr(Not Red) = 1 − = 2
2 2 x
∴ x + x + x + x + 2x + = 1
2
c Picture cards are Kings, Queens and 13x 2
Jacks ∴ =1∴ x=
2 13
n(Picture Card) = 12 2
12 3 ∴ Pr(2) = Pr(3) = Pr(4) = Pr(5) =
Pr(Picture Card) = = 13
52 13 4 1
3 10 Pr(6) = and Pr(1) =
Pr(Not Red) = 1 − = 13 13
13 13
9
d n(Red Picture) = 6 b
13
6 3
Pr(Red Picture) = =
52 26

330
Solutions to Exercise 9B
34 17 340 17
1 a Pr(head) = = = 0.34 Proportion of red = = = 0.85
100 50 400 20
20 1 ba Proportion of red in sample =
b Pr(ten) = = = 0.10 48 4
200 10 = = = 0.8
60 5
40 4
c Pr(two heads) = = c Proportion of red in sample =
150 15
54 9
1 = = = 0.9
d Pr(three sixes) = or 0.005 60 10
200
d Expected number of red
balls= 0.85 × 60 = 51
2 a 20 trials is far too few to obtain
reliable data.
5 Estimate of probability
1 890 89
b Pr(two heads) = , Pr(one head) = = = = 0.445
4 2000 200
1 1
, Pr(no heads) =
2 4
6 a Area of blue section
c Results may resemble b, but could be π(1)2 π
anything with such a small sample. = = ≈ 0.7855
4 4
Area of square= 1 × 1 = 1.
d 100 trials is certainly better. For Proportion of square that is
example, with 95% confidence limits, π
blue= ≈ 0.7855
the number of (H, H) results over 4
20 trials would be between 1 and
b Probability of hitting the blue
9. Over 100 trials we would expect π
region= ≈ 0.7855
between 16 and 34. 4

e To find the probabilities exactly

7 Area of board= π(14)2 = 196π
would require an infinite number of Area of shaded region = π(14)2 − π(7)2
trials.
= 196π − 49π
78 = 147π
3 Die 1 shows Pr(6) = = 0.156 Probabilty that the dart will hit the
500
147 3
102 shaded area= =
Die 2 shows Pr(6) = = 0.146 196 4
700
Die 1 has a higher observed probability
of throwing a 6. 120 1
8 a Pr(Red section) = =
360 3
4 Total number of balls = 400; 340 red 60 1
b Pr(Yellow section) = =
and 60 black. 360 6

331
 1 5 x 1
c Pr(Not Yellow section) = 1 − = = π( )2 = πx2
6 6 2 4
iii Area of smaller circle
9 Area of square = 1 m2 . x 1
= π( )2 = πx2
Area of circle = π × 0.42 = 0.16π 4 16
b i Probability of landing inside the
a Probability of hitting the shaded part 1
πx2 π
= 0.16π smaller circle= 16 2 =
x 16
b Probability of hitting the unshaded ii Probability of landing inside the
part = 1 − 0.16π ≈ 0.4973 ( 41 − 16
1
)πx2 3π
smaller circle= =
x2 16

10 a i Area of square= x2 iii Probability of land-

ing in the outer shaded
1
ii Area of larger circle x2 − πx2 π
region= 4 = 1 −
x2 4

332
Solutions to Exercise 9C
1 ε = {HH, HT, T H, T T } {2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12}
1 3 1
a Pr(No heads) = Pr({T T }) = . a Pr(10) = =
4 36 12
b Pr(More than one tail) = Pr({T T }) = b Pr(odd) = Pr(3) + Pr(5) + Pr(7)
1
. + Pr(9) + Pr(11)
4
2+4+6+4+2
=
1 36
2 a Pr(First toss is a head) = 1
2 =
2
1
b Pr(Second toss is a head) = 1+2+3+4+5+6
2 c Pr(≤ 7) =
36
1
c Pr(Both tosses are heads) = 21 7
4 = =
36 12

3 Sample space =
5 ε=
{2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12}
{HHH, HHT, HT H, T HH, T T H, T HT, HT T, T T T }
There is only 1 way of getting 2 or 12,
2 ways of getting 3 or 11, 3 ways of a Pr(exactly one tail) =
getting 4 or 10 etc. 3
Pr({HHT, HT H, T HH}) =
8
a Pr(even) = Pr(2) + Pr(4) + Pr(6)
b Pr(exactly two tails) =
+ Pr(8) + Pr(10) + Pr(12) 3
Pr({HT T, T T H, T HT }) =
1+3+5+5+3+1 8
=
36 c Pr(exactly three tails) = Pr({T T T }) =
1 1
=
2 8
2 1 1
b Pr(3) = = d Pr(no tails) = Pr({HHH}) =
36 18 8

c Pr(< 6) = Pr(2) + Pr(3)

6 ε=
+ Pr(4) + Pr(5) {HHH, HHT, HT H, T HH, T T H, T HT, HT T, T T T }
1+2+3+4
= a Pr(the third toss is a head) =
36
1
10 5 Pr({HHH, HT H, T HH, T T H}) =
= = 2
36 18
b
4 Sample space = Pr(second and third tosses are heads) =

333
 1 iii Pr(2 tails and an odd number)
Pr({HHH, T HH}) =
4
= Pr({(T, T, 1), (T, T, 3), (T, T, 5)}
c Pr(at least one head and one tail) =
3
Pr({HHT, HT H, T HH, T T H, T HT, HT T, }) = =
3 24
1
4 =
8
7 12 equally likely outcomes: iv Pr(an odd number on the die)
Pr(even, H) = Pr(2, H) + Pr(4, H) 1
=
+ Pr(6, H) 2
3 1
= = ic
12 4 9 a
lt
ce
fi ic
1 cn lt
8 a ce
2 so
3 st ic
4 lt
5 ce
H
6 ic
fi lt
1 ce
2 sa
H cn ic
3 lt
T 4 ce
5 st
ic
6 lt
1 ce
2
H 3
T 4 b i
5
6 Pr(soup, fish and lemon tart) = Pr({(so, f i, it)}
1
T 2 1
3 =
4 18
5
6
ii Pr(fish)
b i 1
Pr(2 heads and a 6) = Pr({(H, H, 6)} =
3
1 iii
=
24 Pr(salad and chicken)
ii = Pr({(sa, c, lt), (sa, c, ic)), (sa, c, ce))}
Pr(1 head, 1 tail and an even number)
3
= Pr({(H, T, 6), (H, T, 4), (H, T, 2) =
18
, (T, H, 6), (T, H, 4), (T, H, 2)} 1
=
6
6
=
24
1
=
4

334
 iv Pr(no lemon tart) 4
b i Pr(5) =
25
1
=1−
3 ii Pr(different) = 1 − Pr(same) =
1 4
=
2 1− =
3 5 5

c This increases the number of choices iii Pr(second number two more
3
for the entree to 3 and the dessert 4. than first number) =
25
There are 3 × 3 × 4 = 36 choices.

d i Pr(soup, fish and lemon tart)

= Pr({(so, f i, it)}
1
=
36

ii Pr(all courses)
1
=
2

iii Pr(only two courses)

15
=
36
5
=
12

iv Pr(only the main courses)

3
=
36
1
=
12

10 a (1, 1)(2, 1)(3, 1)(4, 1)(5, 1)

(1, 2)(2, 2)(3, 2)(4, 2)(5, 2)
(1, 3)(2, 3)(3, 3)(4, 3)(5, 3)
(1, 4)(2, 4)(3, 4)(4, 4)(5, 4)
(1, 5)(2, 5)(3, 5)(4, 5)(5, 5)

335
Solutions to Exercise 9D
1 ∈ = {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10}, A B

A = {1, 2, 3, 4}, B = {2, 4, 6}. I C A

T S E

A B M H

13 24 6
a A0 = {E, H, M, S, }

5 7 8 9 b B0 = {C, H, I, M}

a A ∪ B = {1, 2, 3, 4, 6} c A ∪ B = {A, C, E, I, S, T}

b A ∩ B = {2, 4} d (A ∪ B)0 = {H, M}

c A0 = {5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10} e A0 ∪ B0 = {C, E, H, I, M, S}

d A ∩ B0 = {1, 3} f A0 ∩ B0 = {H, M}

e (A ∩ B)0 = {1, 3, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10}

4 CD Car

f (A ∪ B) = {5, 7, 8, 9, 10}
0

35 35 10

2 ∈ = {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12} 20

A = {multiples of four} ε = 100 students

B = {even numbers}
a 20 students own neither a car
B norsmart phone .
A
4 8 12
2 6 10
b 45 students own either but not both.
1 3 5 7 9 11

5 ε = {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6};
a A0 = {1, 2, 3, 5, 6, 7, 9, 10, 11} A = {2, 4, 6}, B = {3}
b B0 = {1, 3, 5, 7, 9, 11} a (A ∪ B) = {2, 3, 4, 6}
2
c A ∪ B = {2, 4, 6, 8, 10, 12} ∴ Pr(A ∪ B) =
3
d (A ∪ B)0 = B0 = {1, 3, 5, 7, 9, 11} b (A ∩ B) = {}
∴ Pr(A ∩ B) = 0
e A0 ∩ B0 = B0 = {1, 3, 5, 7, 9, 11}
c A0 = {1, 3, 5}
1
∴ Pr(A0 ) =
3 ∈ = {MATHEICS}, A = {ATIC}, B = 2
{TASE}

336
 5 4 1
d B0 = {1, 2, 4, 5, 6} ∴ Pr(B0 ) = b Pr(B) = =
6 20 5
2 1
6 ε = {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12}; c Pr(A ∩ B) = =
20 10
A = {2, 4, 6, 8, 10, 12}, B = {3, 6, 9, 12}
8 2
6 1 d Pr(A ∪ B) = =
a Pr(A) = = 20 5
12 2
4 1 9 Pr(A) = 0.5, Pr(B) = 0.4, and
b Pr(B) = =
12 3 Pr(A ∩ B) = 0.2.
Pr(A ∪ B) = 0.5 + 0.4 − 0.2 = 0.7
1
c {A ∩ B} = {6, 12}, ∴ Pr(A ∩ B) =
6
Pr(A ∪ B) = Pr(A) + Pr(B) − Pr(A ∩ B) 10 Pr(A) = 0.35, Pr(B) = 0.24, and
2 Pr(A ∩ B) = 0.12.
=
3 Pr(A ∪ B) = 0.35 + 0.24 − 0.12 = 0.47

7
11 Pr(A) = 0.28, Pr(B) = 0.45, and A ⊂ B

a Pr(A ∩ B) = Pr(B) = 0.28

b
Pr(A ∪ B) = Pr(A) + Pr(B) − Pr(A ∩ B)
= 0.28 + 0.45 − 0.28
7
a Pr(Swims freestyle) = = 0.45
18
4 2
b Pr(Swims backstroke) = = 12 Pr(A) = 0.58, Pr(B) = 0.45, and B ⊂ A
18 9
c Pr(Swims freestyle and backstroke) = a Pr(A ∩ B) = Pr(B) = 0.45
2 1
=
18 9 b
9 Pr(A ∪ B) = Pr(A) + Pr(B) − Pr(A ∩ B)
d Pr(is on the swimming team) = =
18 = 0.45 + 0.58 − 0.45
1
2 = 0.58

8 A = {1, 2, 3, 4, 6, 12} and B = {2, 3, 5, 7} 13 Pr(A) = 0.3, Pr(B) = 0.4, and A ∩ B = ∅

6 3 a Pr(A ∩ B) = 0
a Pr(A) = =
20 5

337
 b Pr(A ∪ B) = Pr(A) + Pr(B) − Pr(A ∩ B)
Pr(A ∪ B) = Pr(A) + Pr(B) − Pr(A ∩ B) 0.63 = 0.24 + 0.44 − Pr(A ∩ B)
= 0.3 + 0.4 − 0 ∴ Pr(A ∩ B) = 0.05
= 0.7
17 Pr(A) = 0.3, Pr(B) = 0.4, and
14 Pr(A) = 0.08, Pr(B) = 0.15, and A ∩ B0 = 0.2
A∩B=∅ Pr(A ∪ B0 ) = Pr(A) + Pr(B0 ) − Pr(A ∩ B0 )
= 0.3 + 0.6 − 0.2
a Pr(A ∩ B) = 0
= 0.7
b
Pr(A ∪ B) = Pr(A) + Pr(B) − Pr(A ∩ B)
18 Pr(Soccer) = 0.18, Pr(Tennis) = 0.25
= 0.08 + 0.15 − 0 and Pr(Soccer and Tennis) = 0.11
= 0.23 Pr(Soccer or Tennis) = 0.18 + 0.25 − 0.11
= 0.32
15 Pr(A) = 0.3, Pr(B) = 0.4, and
A ∪ B = 0.5 19 Pr(Chinese) = 0.22, Pr(French) = 0.35
Pr(A ∪ B) = Pr(A) + Pr(B) − Pr(A ∩ B) and Pr(Chinese and French) = 0.14
0.5 = 0.3 + 0.4 − Pr(A ∩ B)
a
∴ Pr(A ∩ B) = 0.2 Pr(Chinese or French) = 0.22 + 0.35 − 0.14
= 0.43
16 Pr(A) = 0.24, Pr(B) = 0.44, and
A ∪ B = 0.63 b Probability of exactly oneof these
languages
= Pr(C ∪ F) − Pr(C ∩ F) = 0.29

338
 Solutions to Exercise 9E
1 Pr(A) = 0.6, Pr(A ∩ B) = 0.4, 3 Pr(C ∪ D) = 0.85
Pr(A0 ∩ B) = 0.1 ∴ Pr(C 0 ∩ D0 ) = 0.15, Pr(C) = 0.45
B B0 and Pr(D0 ) = 0.37:
Pr (A ∩ B) Pr (A ∩ B0 ) Pr(A)
A D0
= 0.4 = 0.2 = 0.6 D
0 0 0
Pr (A ∩ B) Pr (A ∩ B ) Pr(A) Pr (C ∩ D) Pr (C ∩ D0 ) Pr(C)
A0 C
= 0.1 = 0.3 = 0.4 = 0.23 = 0.22 = 0.45
Pr (B) = 0.5 Pr (B ) = 0.5
0
1 Pr (C 0 ∩ D) Pr (C 0 ∩ D0 ) Pr (C 0 )
C0
= 0.4 = 0.15 = 0.55
a Pr(A ∩ B0 ) = 0.2 Pr (D) = 0.63 Pr (D0 ) = 0.37 1

b Pr(B) = 0.5 a Pr(D) = 0.63

c Pr(A0 ∩ B0 ) = 0.3 b Pr(C ∩ D) = 0.23

d Pr(A ∪ B) = 1 − 0.3 = 0.7 c Pr(C ∩ D0 ) = 0.22

d Pr(C 0 ∪ D0 ) = 1 − 0.23 = 0.77

2 Pr(A ) = 0.25, Pr(A ∩ B) =
0 0

0.12, Pr(B) = 0.52 :

B B0 4 Pr(E ∪ F) = 0.7
Pr (A ∩ B) Pr (A ∩ B0 ) Pr(A) ∴ Pr(E 0 ∩ F 0 ) = 0.3
A
= 0.4 = 0.35 = 0.75 Pr(E ∩ F) = 0.15, Pr(E 0 ) = 0.55:
0 0 0
Pr (A ∩ B) Pr (A ∩ B ) Pr(A0 )
A0 F F0
= 0.12 = 0.13 = 0.25
Pr (B) = 0.52 Pr (B ) = 0.48
0
1 Pr (E ∩ F) Pr (E ∩ F 0 ) Pr (E)
E
= 0.15 = 0.3 = 0.45
a Pr(A) = 0.75 Pr (E 0 ∩ F) Pr (E 0 ∩ F 0 ) Pr (E 0 )
E0
= 0.25 = 0.3 = 0.55
b Pr(A ∩ B) = 0.4 Pr (F) = 0.4 Pr (F 0 ) = 0.6 1
c Pr(A ∪ B) = 1 − 0.13 = 0.87 a Pr(E) = 0.45

d Pr(B0 ) = 0.48 b Pr(F) = 0.4

c Pr(E 0 ∩ F) = 0.25

d Pr(E 0 ∪ F) = 1 − 0.3 = 0.7

339
 5 Pr(A) = 0.8, Pr(B) = 0.7, 7 a
Pr(A0 ∩ B0 ) = 0.1: C C0
B B0 Pr (A ∩ C) Pr (A ∩ C 0 ) Pr(A)
Pr (A ∩ B) Pr (A ∩ B0 ) A 4 12 16
A
Pr(A) = = =
= 0.6 = 0.2 = 0.8 52 52 52
Pr (A ∩ B) Pr (A0 ∩ B0 )
0
Pr(A’)
0
Pr (A ∩ C) Pr (A ∩ C 0 )
0
Pr(A0 )
A0 A0 9 27 36
= 0.1 = 0.1 = 0.2 = = =
52 52 52
Pr (B) = 0.7 Pr (B0 ) = 0.3 1
13 39
Pr (C) = Pr (C 0 ) = 1
a Pr(A ∪ B) = 1 − 0.1 = 0.9 52 52

b Pr(A ∩ B) = 0.6 16 4
b i Pr(A) = = (all picture
52 13
cards)
c Pr(A0 ∩ B) = 0.1
13 1
d Pr(A ∪ B0 ) = 1 − 0.1 = 0.9 ii Pr(C) = = (all hearts)
52 4
4 1
iii Pr(A ∩ C) = = (picture
6 Pr(G) = 0.85, Pr(L) = 0.6, 52 13
Pr(L ∪ G) = 0.5: hearts)
L L0 25
Pr (G ∩ L) Pr (G ∩ L0 ) Pr (G) iv Pr(A ∪ C) = (all hearts or
G 52
= 0.5 = 0.35 = 0.85 pictures)
0 Pr (G ∩ L) Pr (G0 ∩ L0 )
0
Pr (G0 ) 43
G v Pr(A ∪ C 0 ) = (all club,
= 0.1 = 0.05 = 0.15 52
Pr (L) = 0.6 Pr (L0 ) = 0.4 1 diamond and spades or pictures)

a Pr(G ∪ L) = 1 − 0.05 = 0.95, so 95%

1 10
favoured at least one proposition. 8 Pr(M ∩ F) = or
6 60
3 18
b Pr(G0 ∩ L0 ) = 0.05, so 5% favoured Pr(M) = =
10 60
neither proposition 7 28
Pr(F 0 ) = =
15 60
F F0
Pr (M ∩ F) Pr (M ∩ F 0 ) Pr (M)
M 10 8 18
= = =
60 60 60
Pr (M ∩ F) Pr (M ∩ F 0 ) Pr (M)
M0 22 20 42
= = =
60 60 60
32 Pr (F 0 )
Pr (F) = 28 60
60 =
60

340
 32 8 a Pr(N) = 0.81
a Pr(F) = =
60 15
42 7 b Pr(H ∩ N) = 0.69
b Pr(M ) =0
=
60 10
c Pr(N) = 0.74
8 2
c Pr(M ∩ F 0 ) = or d Pr(H ∪ N) = 1 − 0.14 = 0.86
60 15
20 1
d Pr(M 0 ∩ F 0 ) = or 40 2
60 3 11 Pr(B) = =
60 3
32 8
9 Pr(F) = 0.65 Pr(S ) = =
60 15
Pr(W) = 0.72 Pr(B0 ∩ S 0 ) = 0
Pr(W 0 ∩ F 0 ) = 0.2
B B0
F F0
Pr (S ∩ B) Pr (S ∩ B0 ) Pr (S )
Pr (W ∩ F) Pr (W ∩ F 0 ) Pr (W)
W S 12 20 32
= 0.57 = 0.15 = 0.72 = = =
60 60 60
Pr (W ∩ F) Pr (W 0 ∩ F 0 )
0
Pr (W 0 )
W0 Pr (S 0 ∩ B) Pr (S 0 ∩ B0 ) Pr (S 0 )
= 0.08 = 0.2 = 0.28 S0 28 28
Pr (F) = 0.65 Pr (F 0 ) = 0.35 1 = =0 =
60 60
40 20
a Pr(W ∪ F) = 1 − 0.2 = 0.8 Pr (B) = Pr (B0 ) = 60
60 60
b Pr(W ∩ F) = 0.57
a Pr(B0 ∩ S 0 ) = 0
c Pr(W 0 ) = 0.28
b Pr(B ∪ S ) = 1
d Pr(W 0 ∩ F) = 0.08 12 1
c Pr(B ∩ S ) = = = 0.2
60 5
10 Pr(H ∩ N 0 ) = 0.05 20 1
d Pr(B0 ∩ S ) = =
Pr(H 0 ∩ N) = 0.12 60 3
Pr(N 0 ) = 0.19
N N0 35
12 Pr(H) = = 0.7
Pr (H ∩ N) Pr (H ∩ N 0 ) Pr (H) 50
H 38
= 0.69 = 0.05 = 0.74 Pr(S ) = = 0.76
0
Pr (H ∩ N) Pr (H 0 ∩ N 0 ) Pr (H 0 ) 50
H0 6
= 0.12 = 0.14 = 0.26 Pr(H 0 ∩ S 0 ) = = 0.12
50
Pr (N) = 0.81 Pr (N 0 ) = 0.19 1

341
 H H0 b Pr(H ∩ S ) = 0.58
Pr (S ∩ H) Pr (S ∩ H 0 ) Pr (S )
S c Pr H 0 ∩ S + Pr H ∩ S 0



= 0.58 = 0.18 = 0.76
Pr (S 0 ∩ H) Pr (S 0 ∩ H 0 ) Pr (S 0 ) = 0.12 + 0.18
S0
= 0.12 = 0.12 = 0.24 = 0.3
Pr (H) Pr (H 0 )
1
= 0.7 = 0.3 d Pr(H ∩ S 0 ) = 0.12

a Pr(H ∪ S ) = 1 − 0.12 = 0.88

342
Solutions to Exercise 9F
1 A = {6}, B = {3, 4, 5, 6} 4
b Pr(iPhone| iPad) =
∴ A ∩ B = {6} 7
Pr(A ∩ B)
Pr(A|B) =
Pr(B) 35 7
1 4 1 7 Pr(Think yes| Male) = =
= ÷ = 60 12
6 6 4
375 3
8 a Pr(Prefers sport) = =
2 500 4
225 3
b Pr(Prefers sport|Male) = =
300 4

9 ∩ S A R O T
1 F 42 61 22 12 137
Pr(A|B) =
3 NF 88 185 98 60 431
Tot 130 246 120 72 568
3
130 65
a Pr(S ) = =
568 284
137
b Pr(F) =
568
1 Pr(F ∩ S )
Pr(A|B) = c Pr(F|S ) =
13 Pr(S )
42 130
= ÷
4 568 568
42 21
= =
130 65
Pr(F ∩ A)
d Pr(F|A) = )
Pr(A)
61 246 61
7 = ÷ =
Pr(Violin|Piano) = 568 568 246
12

1 10 Pr(A) = 0.6, Pr(B) = 0.3, Pr(B|A) = 0.1

5 Pr(Double six| A double) =
6 a Pr(A ∩ B) = Pr(B|A) × Pr(A) = 0.06

4
6 a Pr(iPad| iPhone) =
17

343
 Pr(A ∩ B) 13 Pr(A) = 0.6, Pr(B) = 0.54,
b Pr(A|B) =
Pr(B) Pr(A ∩ B0 ) = 0.4
0.06 ∩ B B0
= = 0.2
0.3 A 0.2 0.4 0.6 = Pr(A)
A 0
0.34 0.06 0.4 = Pr(A0 )
Pr(A ∩ B) 0.54 0.46 1
11 a Pr(B|A) =
Pr(A) = Pr(B) = Pr(B ) 0

04 4
= = a Pr(A ∩ B) = 0.2
0.7 7
Pr(A ∩ B)
b Pr(A ∩ B) = Pr(A|B) × Pr(B) b Pr(A|B) =
Pr(B)
= 0.6(0.5) = 0.3 0.2 10
= =
Pr(A ∩ B) 0.54 27
c Pr(A|B) =
Pr(B) Pr(A ∩ B)
c Pr(B|A) =
Pr(A ∩ B) Pr(A)
∴ Pr(B) =
Pr(A|B) 0.2 1
= =
03 15 0.6 3
= =
0.44 22
14 Pr(A) = 0.4, Pr(B) = 0.5, Pr(A|B) = 0.6
12 Pr(A) = 0.5, Pr(B) = 0.4, Pr(A ∪ B) = 0.7
Pr(A ∩ B) + Pr(A ∪ B) = Pr(A) + Pr(B) a Pr(A ∩ B) = Pr(A|B) × Pr(B) = 0.3
∩ B B0 0.3
A 0.2 0.3 0.5 Pr(A) b Pr(B|A) =
0.4
0
A 0.2 0.3 0.5 Pr(A0 ) 3
= = 0.75
0.4 0.6 1 4
0
Pr(B) Pr(B )
15 Pr(H) = 0.6, Pr(W|H) = 0.8
a Pr(A ∩ B) = 0.5 + 0.4 − 0.7 = 0.2
∴ Pr(H ∩ W) = Pr(W|H) × Pr(H)
0.2
b Pr(A|B) = = 0.5 = 0.8(0.6) = 0.48
0.4 Pr(W|H 0 ) = 0.4
0.2 ∴ Pr(H 0 ∩ W) = Pr(W|H 0 ) × Pr(H 0 )
c Pr(B|A) = = 0.4
0.5 = 0.42 = 0.16
∩ W W0
H 0.48 0.12 0.6 Pr(H)
0
H 0.16 0.24 0.4 Pr(H 0 )
0.64 0.36 1
0
Pr(W) Pr(W )
Pr(H ∩ W) = 0.16 = 16%
0

344
16 Pr(C) = 0.15, Pr(F) = 0.08, ∴ B0 = (9G + 5G0 )
Pr(C ∩ F) = 0.03
Pr(C ∩ F) 15
Pr(F|C) = a Pr(G) =
Pr(C) 28
0.03 1 14 1
= = b Pr(B) = =
0.15 5 28 2
1 1
17 (with replacement) c Pr(B0 ) = 1 − =
2 2
 1 2 1 Pr(G ∩ B)
a = d Pr(B|G) =
4 16 Pr(G)
 1 2 6 15 2
b Pr(A, A) = =
1 = ÷ =
13 169 28 28 5
Pr(G ∩ B)
e Pr(G|B) =
 1 2 1
c Pr(R, B) = = Pr(B)
2 4
6 14 3
d If the picture cards are Knight, = ÷ =
28 28 7
King, Queen, Ace then
 4 2 Pr(G0 ∩ B)
Pr(P, P) = =
16 f Pr(B|G0 ) =
13 169 Pr(G0 )
If only Knight, King, Queen 8 13 8
 3 2 9 = ÷ =
Pr(P, P) = = 28 28 13
13 169
5
g Pr(B0 ∩ G0 ) =
28
18 (without replacement)
6 3
 13  12  1 h Pr(B ∩ G) = =
a = 28 14
52 51 17
21 a Pr(R) = 0.85
 4  3  1
b Pr(A, A) = =
52 51 221
 26  26  13 b Pr(L|R) = 0.60
c Pr(R, B) = =
52 51 51 c Pr(L ∩ R) = Pr(L|R) × Pr(R) = 0.51
 16  15  20
d Pr(P, P) = = d Pr(L) = 0.51 since L is a subset of R.
52 51 221

19 Pr(W) = 0.652, Pr(A|W) = 0.354 22 U = ‘students who prefer not to wear a

Pr(A ∩ W) = Pr(A|W) × Pr(W) uniform’
E = ‘students in Yr 11’
= 0.231
E 0 = ’students in Yr 12’
1
Pr(U|E) = 0.25 =
20 ε = 28, G = 15, B = 14 = (6G + 8G0 ) 4

345
 2 335
Pr(U|E 0 ) = 0.40 = b Pr(B) =  0.372
5 900
8
Pr(E) = 320/600 = Pr(B ∩ G)
15 c i Pr(G|B) =
Pr(U ∩ E) = Pr(U|E) × Pr(E) Pr(B)
 8 1 2 0.178
= = =  0.478
15 4 15 0.372
Pr(U ∩ E 0 ) = Pr(U|E 0 ) Pr(E 0 ) Pr(B0 ∩ G)
 7  2 14 ii Pr(G|B0 ) =
= = Pr(B0 )
15 5 75 0.267
∴ Pr(U) = Pr(U ∩ E 0 ) + Pr(U ∩ E) = = 0.425
0.628
2 14 24
= + = = 32%
15 75 75 24 N 0: 12% of 480 = D;
However, these are students who prefer
not to wear uniform. N: 5% of 620 = D
Students in favour are therefore 68%. 620
a i Pr(N) =
620 + 480
4
≈ 0.564
23 Pr(B ∩ G) = 0.4 = 0.178
9 
5 ii Pr(D|N) = 0.05 (5%)
Pr(B ∩ G0 ) = 0.35 = 0.194
 49
Pr(B0 ∩ G) = 0.6 = 0.267 iii Pr(D|N 0 ) = 0.12 (= 12%)
9 
5 iv Pr(D ∩ N) = Pr(D|N) × Pr(N)
Pr(B0 ∩ G0 ) = 0.65 = 0.361
9
∩ B B0 = 0.05(0.563)
G 0.178 0.267 0.444 = 0.0282
G0 0.194 0.361 0.556
v
0.372 0.628 1
Pr(D ∩ N 0 ) = Pr(D|N 0 ) × Pr(N 0 )
400 = 0.12(0.437) ≈ 0.052
a i Pr(G) = = 0.444
900
89
ii Pr(B|G) = 0.40 (40%) b 12%(480) + 5%(620) = = 0.081
1100
iii Pr(B|G0 ) = 0.35 (35%) Pr(D ∩ N)
c Pr(N|D) =
Pr(D)
iv Pr(B ∩ G) = Pr(B|G) × Pr(G) 0.028
= ≈ 0.35
= 0.4(0.444) = 0.178 0.081

v Pr(B ∩ G0 ) = Pr(B|G0 ) × Pr(G0 ) 25 B1 = 3M, 3M 0 ; B2 = 3M, 2M 0 ;

B3 = 2M, 1M 0
 500 
= 0.35  0.194
900

346
 11 1 26 A, B , ∅
a Pr(M ∩ B1) = =
3 2 6
a Pr(A|B) = 1
b Pr(M) = Pr(M ∩ B1) + Pr(M ∩ B2)
∴ Pr(A ∩ B) = Pr(B)
+ Pr(M ∩ B3) ∴ B is a subset of A, i.e. B ⊆ A
11 13 12
= + + b Pr(A|B) = 0
3 2 3 5 3 3
1 1 2 53 ∴ A and B are mutually exclusive or
= + + = A∩B=∅
6 5 9 90
Pr(A)
c Pr(B1|M) =
Pr(M ∩ B1) c Pr(A|B) =
Pr(M) Pr(B)
∴ Pr(A ∩ B) = Pr(A)
1 53 15
= ÷ = ∴ A is a subset of B, i.e. A ⊆ B
6 90 53

347
Solutions to Exercise 9G
1 Do you think private individuals should 1
Pr(A) Pr(B) = so A and B are
be allowed to carry guns? 4
independent.
Male Female
Yes 35 30 65 b A ∩ C = {4, 6}
No 25 10 35 1
∴ Pr(A ∩ C) =
Total 60 40 100 6
1
Pr(male and support guns) = 0.35; Pr(A) Pr(C) = so A and C are
6
Pr(male) × Pr(support guns) = 0.39 , independent.
0.35;
therefore not independent c B ∩ C = {9}
1
∴ Pr(B ∩ C) =
12
1
Male Female Total Pr(B) Pr(C) = so B and C are not
6
Sport 225 150 375 independent.
2
Music 75 50 125
Total 300 200 500
5 Pr(A ∩ B)
Pr(male and prefer sport) = 0.45;
= Pr( even number and square number)
Pr(male) × Pr(prefer sport) = 0.45; 1
therefore independent = Pr({4}) =
6
3 1
Pr(A) = =
6 2
Type of Speeding 2 1
and Pr(B) = Pr({1, 4}) = =
accident Yes No Total 6 3
3 Serious 42 61 103 ∴ Pr(A ∩ B) = Pr(A) × Pr(B)
Minor 88 185 273
Total 130 246 376 6 Pr(A) = 0.3, Pr(B) = 0.1,
Pr(speeding and serious) ≈ 0.112;
Pr(A ∩ B) = 0.1
Pr(speeding) × Pr(serious) = 0.095 ,
Pr(A) Pr(B) = 0.03 , 0.1, so A and B are
0.074;
not independent.
therefore not independent

7 Pr(A) = 0.6, Pr(B) = 0.7, and A and B

4 ε = {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12}
are independent
A = {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6},
B = {1, 3, 5, 7, 9, 11}, a Pr(A|B) = Pr(A) = 0.6
C = {4, 6, 8, 9}
1 1 1 b Pr(A ∩ B) = Pr(A) Pr(B)
∴ Pr(A) = , Pr(B) = , Pr(C) =
2 2 3
= 0.6(0.7) = 0.42
a A ∩ B = {1, 3, 5}
1
∴ Pr(A ∩ B) =
4

348
 c Pr(A ∩ B) = Pr(A) + Pr(B) Pr(F ∩ L)
e Pr(L|F) =
Pr(F)
− Pr(A ∩ B)
12 45 4
Pr(A ∪ B) = 0.6 + 0.7 − 0.42 = 0.88 = ÷ =
165 165 15
F and L are not independent. If they
were, then
8 Pr(A ∩ B) = Pr(A) Pr(B) Pr(L|F) = Pr(L) Pr(L)
= 0.5(0.2) = 0.1 45 3 4
= = ,
Pr(A ∪ B) = Pr(A) + Pr(B) − Pr(A ∩ B) 165 11 15
= 0.5 + 0.2 − 0.1 = 0.6
20 5
11 Pr(A) = =
36 9
Blood group 0 A B AB 9 1
9 Pr(B) = =
Pr 0.5 0.35 0.1 0.05 36 4
5
Pr(A ∩ B) = = Pr(A) Pr(B)
a Pr(A) = 0.35 36
∴ A and B are independent.
b Pr(A, B) = 0.35(0.1) = 0.035
12 Pr(W) = 0.4, Pr(M) = 0.5
c Pr(A, A) = 0.352 = 0.1225 Pr(W ∩ M)
Pr(W|M) = 0.7 =
Pr(M)
d Pr(O, AB) = 0.05(0.5) = 0.025
a Pr(W ∩ M) = Pr(W|M) × Pr(M)

10 N = 165: = 0.7(0.5) = 0.35

H N L
Pr(W ∩ M)
M 88 22 10 b Pr(M|W) =
Pr(W)
F 11 22 12
035 7
= = or 0.875
44 4 0.4 8
a Pr(N) = =
165 15
11 1 13 N = 65:
b Pr(F ∩ H) = = T F S
165 15
L 13 4 1
c Pr(F ∪ H) = Pr(F) + Pr(H) M 8 10 3
− Pr(F ∩ H) H 2 16 8
45 + 99 − 11 133 18
= = a Pr(L) =
165 165 65
Pr(F ∩ L) 12
d Pr(F|L) = b Pr(S ) =
Pr(L) 65
12 22 6
= ÷ = 23
165 165 11 c Pr(T ) =
65

349
 21 14 N = 150:
d Pr(M) =
65 G G0
4 F 48 16
e Pr(L ∩ F) = F 0 24 62
65
8 48 3
f Pr(T ∩ M) = a i Pr(G|F) = = = 0.75
65 64 4
4 2 48
g Pr(L|F) = = ii Pr(G ∩ F) = = 0.32
30 15 150
8 88 44
h Pr(I|M) = iii Pr(G ∪ F) = = = 0.587
21 150 75
Income is not independent of age,
48 + 24 48 + 16
! !
e.g.:
4 b Pr(G) Pr(F) =
Pr(L ∩ F) = = 0.0615, but 150 150
65   72
!
64
!
18 30 = = 0.2048
Pr(L) Pr(F) = = 0.128 150 150
65 65
You would not expect middle Pr(G) Pr(F) , Pr(G ∩ F)
managers’ income to be independent ∴ G and F are not independent.
of age.
c G and F not mutually exclusive:
Pr(G ∩ F) , 0

350
Solutions to Exercise 9H
1 3 Binomial, n = 10 and p = 0.2
1 We know the answer is . Binomial
8 Pr(X ≥ 5) = 0.032793:
1
with p = and n = 3. Simulate with random integers1-5.
2
Simulate with random integers 0 and 1 Choose one value to be correct for each
with your calculator. question.

1
2 Binomial, n = 5 and p = It can be 4 There are many possibilities here, but
2 simplest would be to use a random
simulated with using random integers
0 and 1 with your calculator in a . number table, where each souvenir is
Pr(X ≥ 3): given a number from 0 to 9.
(The average number of purchases
X 3 4 5
needed is exactly given by:
Pr(X = x) 0.3125 0.15625 0.03125 10 10 10 10 10
1+ + + +...+ + ≈ 29.3)
One in every two simulations would be 9 8 7 2 1
This is known as the ’Collector’s Prob-
expected to give this result.
lem’

351
Solutions to Technology-free questions
1 a Six ways of getting 7 6 a ∈ = {156, 165, 516, 561, 615, 651}
6 1
∴ Pr(7) = = 4 2
36 6 b Pr(> 400) = =
6 3
1 5
b Pr(70 ) = 1 − = 2 1
6 6 c Pr(even) = =
6 3
2 Pr(O) = 0.993
∴ Pr(O0 ) = 1 − 0.993 = 0.007 7 STATISTICIAN has 5 vowels and
7 consonants.

100 1 5
3 a Pr divisible by 3 = = a Pr(vowel) =
300 3 12
75 1 3 1
b Pr divisible by 4 =


= b Pr(T) = =
300 4 12 4


c Pr divisible by 3 or by 4 8 Pr(I) = 0.6, Pr(J) = 0.1, Pr(D) = 0.3
1 1
= + − Pr divisible by 12


3 4 a Pr(I, J, I) = 0.6 (0.1) 0.6
7 25 1 = 0.036
= − =
12 300 2
b Pr(D, D, D) = 0.33 = 0.027
4 30 R, 20 B
∴ Pr(R) = 0.6 c Pr(I, D, D) + Pr(J, D, D) +
Pr(D, I, D) + Pr(D, J, D) +
a Pr(R, R) = 0.62 = 0.36 Pr(D, D, I) + Pr(D,
 D, J)
= 3 (0.6 + 0.1) 0.3 2

b No replacement:
! ! = 0.189
3 29 87
Pr(R, R) = =
5 49 245 d Pr(J 0 ) = 0.9
∴ Pr(J 0 , J 0 , J 0 ) = 0.93 = 0.729
5 A = {1, 3, 5, 7, 9}, B = {1, 4, 9}
If A + B = C, 1 2
9 Pr(R) = , Pr(B) =
C = {2, 5, 10, 4, 7, 12, 6, 9, 14, 8, 11, 3 3
16, 10, 13, 18} 1
!3
1
Of these, only {6, 9, 12, 18} are a Pr(R, R, R) = =
3 27
divisible by 3.
4 2 1 2
! !
4
Pr(sum divisible by 3)= b Pr(B, R, B) = =
15 3 3 3 27

c Pr(R, B, B) + Pr(B, R, B) +

352
 Pr(B, B,! R) 32 2
∴ Pr(A ∩ B0 ) = =
4 4 7 3 7
=3 = Pr(A ∩ B) 2
27 9 Pr(A|B) = =
Pr(B) 3
2 1
  2
d Pr(≥ 2B) = Pr(B, B, B) + Pr(2B) ∴ Pr(A ∩ B) = =
!3 3 3 9
2 4 20
= + = 2 2 32
3 9 27 b Pr(A) = + =
9 7 63

10 Pr(A) = 0.6, Pr(B) = 0.5 Pr(A ∩ B0 )

c Pr(B0 |A) =
If A and B are mutually exclusive, Pr(A)
Pr(A ∩ B) = 0 2 32 9
= ÷ =
By definition, 7 63 16

Pr(A ∩ B) = Pr(A) + Pr(B) − Pr(A ∩ B) 14

Pr O N U Tot
= 1.1 > 0 H 0.1 0.08 0.02 0.2
This is impossible, so they cannot be H0 0.15 0.45 0.2 0.8
mutually exclusive. Tot 0.25 0.53 0.22 1

a Pr(H) = 0.2
0
∩ B B
Pr(H ∩ O)
A 0.1 0.5 0.6 b Pr(H|O) =
11 Pr(O)
A0 0.4 0 0.4 0.1
Pr(B) = 0.5 Pr(B ) = 0.5
0
1 = = 0.4
0.25
a Pr(A ∩ B0 ) = 0.5
15 Pr(A) = 0.3, Pr(B) = 0.6, Pr(A ∩ B) = 0.2
b Pr(A ∩ B ) = 0
0 0

a Pr(A ∪ B) = Pr(A) + Pr(B)

c Pr(A ∪ B) = Pr(A) + Pr(B) − Pr(A ∩ B − Pr(A ∩ B) = 0.7
= 0.6 + 0.5 − 0.1 ∩ B B0
=1 A 0.2 0.1 0.3
A0 0.4 0.3 0.7
7 0.6 0.4 1
12 a
18
b Pr(A0 ∩ B0 ) = 0.3
1
b
2 Pr(A ∩ B)
c Pr(A|B) =
Pr(B)
1 2 0.2 1
13 Pr(B) = ∴ Pr(B0 ) = = =
3 3 0.6 3
Pr(A ∩ B0 ) 3
a Pr(A|B0 ) = =
Pr(B0 ) 7

353
 Pr(A ∩ B) Pr(A ∩ B)
d Pr(B|A) = 16 a Pr(A|B) =
Pr(A) Pr(B)
0.2 2 Pr(A ∩ B)
= = If Pr(A|B) = 1, then =1
0.3 3 Pr(B)
∴ Pr(A ∩ B) = Pr(B)
∴ B is a subset of A.
Pr(A ∩ B)
b Pr(A|B) =
Pr(B)
Pr(A ∩ B)
If Pr(A|B) = 0, then =0
Pr(B)
∴ Pr(A ∩ B) = 0
∴ A and B are mutually exclusive or
disjoint.
Pr(A ∩ B)
c Pr(A|B) =
Pr(B)
If Pr(A|B) = Pr(A), then
Pr(A ∩ B)
= Pr(A)
Pr(B)
∴ Pr(A ∩ B) = Pr(A) Pr(B)
∴ A and B are independent.

354
Solutions to multiple-choice questions
1 B Pr(< 50) = 1 − Pr(≥ 50) 3 9
11 B Pr(G) = = ,
10 30
= 1 − 0.7 = 0.3 2 20
Pr(M) = = ,
3 30
2 C Pr(G) = 1 − Pr G0


7 14
Pr G0 ∩ M = = ,


= 1 − 0.7 = 0.3 15 30
M M0
3 A 4 Ts in 10
2 6 3 9
∴ Pr(T) = G Pr (G ∩ M) = Pr (G ∩ M) = =
5 30 30 30
14 7 21
4 C Pr(C) = 1 − Pr C 0 G0 Pr (G0 ∩ M) = Pr (G0 ∩ M) = =


30 30 30
18 7
=1− = 20 10
25 25 Pr (M) = Pr (M 0 ) = 1
30 30
16 4 7
5 D Pr(J ∪ ♠) = = Pr(G0 ∩ M 0 ) =
52 13 30
6 A Area outside circle = 16 − π (1.5)2 m2 12 B
2.25π
∴ Pr = 1 −  0.442
16 13 A
1 1 1 Pr(A ∩ B)
7 D Pr(Head and a six) = × = 14 E Pr(A|B) =
2 6 12 Pr(B)
8 E Pr(A) = 0.35, Pr(A ∩ B) = 0.18, 8 4 2
= ÷ =
Pr(B) = 0.38 21 7 3
Pr(A ∪ B) = 0.35 + 0.38 − 0.18 15 C Pr(G, G) = 0.6(0.7) = 0.42
= 0.55
16 A Pr(G, G) + Pr(G, G0 )
= 0.42 + (0.4)2
9 A Pr(A ∪ B) = Pr(A) + Pr(B) − Pr(A ∩ B)
= 0.47 + 0.28 − 0.28 = 0.47 = 0.58

10 B Pr(B) = 0.32 17 B Pr(A ∩ B) = Pr(A) Pr(B)

Pr(F) = 0.57 = 0.35(0.46) = 0.161
Pr(F ∩ B) = 0.11
B B0 Pr(A ∪ B) = Pr(A) + Pr(B)
− Pr(A ∩ B)
F 0.57
0.11 0.46 = 0.35 + 0.46 − 0.161
F0 = 0.649
0.21 0.22 0.43
0.32 0.68 1 18 D The reliability
= 0.85 + 0.95 − 0.85 × 0.95
= 0.9925
355
Solutions to extended-response questions
1 Let A = number of days it takes to build scenery.
Let B = number of days it takes to paint scenery.
Let C = number of days it takes to print programs.


a Pr building and painting scenery together taking exactly 15 days
= Pr(A = 7) × Pr(B = 8) + Pr(A = 8) × Pr(B = 7)
3 1 4 3
= × + ×
10 10 10 10
3 + 12
=
100
= 0.15


b Pr all 3 tasks taking exactly 22 days
= Pr(A = 6) × Pr(B = 8) × Pr(C = 8) + Pr(A = 7) × Pr(B = 7) × Pr(C = 8) +
Pr(A = 7) × Pr(B = 8) × Pr(C = 7) + Pr(A = 8) × Pr(B = 6) × Pr(C = 8) +
Pr(A = 8) × Pr(B = 7) × Pr(C = 7) + Pr(A = 8) × Pr(B = 8) × Pr(C = 6)
3×1×2+3×3×2+3×1×4+4×6×2+4×3×4+4×1×4
=
1000
6 + 18 + 12 + 48 + 48 + 16
=
1000
148
=
1000
= 0.148

3 2 3
2 a For bowl A, Pr(2 apples) = × =
8 7 28
7 6 3
For bowl B, Pr(2 apples) = × =
8 7 4
3 3 9
b For bowl A, Pr(2 apples with replacement) = × =
8 8 64
7 7 49
For bowl B, Pr(2 apples with replacement) = × =
8 8 64
c Let A be the event that bowl A is chosen.

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 Pr(A ∩ 2 apples without replacement)
Then Pr(A|2 apples) =
Pr(2 apples without replacement)
1 3 3
×
= 2 28  = 28
1 3 21 3 + 21
+
2 28 28 28
3 1
= = = 0.125
24 8
Pr(A ∩ 2 apples with replacement)
d Pr(A|2 apples) =
Pr(2 apples with replacement)
1 9
×
= 2 64 
1 9 49
+
2 64 64
9
=
58
 0.125

4
3 a
5

4 4 1 1
b Pr(running the day after) = × + × = 0.69
5 5 5 4
4 4 1 4 1 1 1 1
c Pr(running exactly twice in the next three days) = × × + × × + × ×
5 5 5 5 5 4 5 4
4
= 0.208
5
4 a The following structure is assumed.
1}
2 Winner 1 & 2
(Quarter final 1)
3} Winner 3 & 4
4 Winner Q F 1
5} Winner Q F 2
6 Winner 5 & 6 (Semi-final 1)
(Quarter final 2)
7} Winner 7 & 8
8 Winner S F 1
9} Winner S F 2
10 Winner 9 & 10 (Grand final)
(Quarter final 3)
11 } Winner 11 & 12
12 Winner Q F 3
13 } Winner Q F 4
14 Winner 13 & 14 (Semi-final 2)
(Quarter final 4)
15 } Winner 15 & 16
16

Pr(Player winning 1 match) = 0.5

357
 Pr(Player winning 2 matches) = 0.5 × 0.5
Pr(Player winning 3 matches) = 0.5 × 0.5 × 0.5
Pr(Player winning 4 matches) = 0.5 × 0.5 × 0.5 × 0.5
∴ expected number of matches = 0.5 × 1 + 0.52 × 2 + 0.53 × 3 + 0.54 × 4
13
=
8
b If probability of winning is 0.7, expected number of matches
= 0.7 × 1 + 0.72 × 2 + 0.73 × 3 + 0.74 × 4
18 347
=
5000
≈ 3.7

358
 Simulation

a Use int(rand()∗ 2 + 1)
If 1 occurs, a win is recorded. If 2 occurs, a loss is recorded. Sequence stops as soon
as 2 is obtained. In the example to the right, the player plays 2 matches.

b Use int(rand∗ 10 + 1)
If a digit 1 − 7 inclusive is obtained, a win is recorded. If 8 or 9 or 10 is obtained, a
loss is recorded. In the example to the right, the player plays 5 matches.

5 a Theoretical answer
For teams A and B,
1 1 1 1 1
probability of winning = × + × ×
2 2 2 2 2
1 1
= +
4 8
3
= or 0.73
8
For teams C and D,
1 1 1 1
probability of winning = × × = or 0.125
2 2 2 8
Simulation
TI: The following program simulates the final series and assigns equal probability of
winning to each of the two teams in any game. It displays the winner of each game,
and lastly the winner of the series.

359
360
b Simulation
TI: The following program uses a simulation of 100 final series to estimate the
probability of each team winning a final series. The estimated probabilities are
displayed.

361