1. Measurements and uncertainties 1.

1 Measurements in physics

Estimating and guessing

Introduction

“An estimate is one kind of educated guess, although often one that involves making a
numerical determination, and using some knowledge of known or observable variables to
determine the most likely number or range of numbers. A guess, however, may also be
purely a matter of selecting one possible answer from the set of possible answers, with
little or no basis for making the selection.”

Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Guessing

We do not guess in physics. We estimate using our prior knowledge or research. We are
going to practise this skill today.

Method:

1. Estimate to the nearest order of magnitude (power of 10) the value of the quantities
the table including a base unit.

2. Now measure the quantities as accurately as you can in the next 15 minutes.

3. Convert these measurements into scientific notation

4. Convert this number so you can add a prefix of your choice.

5. Compare your estimated order of magnitude to your measured value and decide
whether your estimate was good or not.

Quantity Estimated Measured Measured Measured Measured Good

order of value value in value in order of estimate?
magnitude scientific scientific magnitude
notation notation using
a prefix

The mass of
102 kg 82.30 kg 8.23 x 101 kg 8.23 x 104 dag 102 Yes
Mr Rayner

The mass of a
pencil

The length of
the science
corridor

The time taken

to walk around
the first floor
of MK

The number of
particles in a
pencil

The
temperature
outside

The current in
a simple
circuit
1. Measurements and uncertainties 1.1 Measurements in physics

The following are much more difficult estimates. You will need to justify your estimates in the
space below by showing your assumptions clearly and your working.

Example: if all the people in the world stood shoulder to shoulder, how many times would they
wrap around the Earth? (Earth diameter is 12 742 km).

Assumptions: Each person is about 1 m in width. There are about 8 billion people. Radius of the
Earth is about 6 500 km. Earth is a perfect sphere (no mountains or valleys) of circumference 2𝝅r.

Circumference of Earth is 2𝝅r = 2𝝅 x 6 500 km = 40 000 km

Length of people is 8 x 109 x 1 m = 8 x 109 m = 8 x 106 km
Number of loops: 8 x 106 km / 40 000 km = 200 times around the Earth

1. The time it would take (in years) to travel from the Earth to the Sun in an aeroplane (1 AU = 1.5
x 1011 m)

2. What is the mass of all the human beings on earth?

3. What is the mass of the Earth in elephants? (Earth mass is 6 x 1024)

4. If the Sun were hollow, how many Earth’s would fit inside the Sun? (Solar radius is 696 340 km
and Earth’s diameter is 12 742 km.)