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CLIMATE RISK MANAGEMENT IN LAND-USE PLANNING: CASE STUDY OF

THE REGIONAL AND MARINE USE PLANNING PROGRAM OF GULF OF MEXICO
AND CARIBBEAN SEA (RMUPP of GM&CS)

Conference Paper · October 2013

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CLIMATE RISK MANAGEMENT IN LAND-USE PLANNING: CASE STUDY OF THE
REGIONAL AND MARINE USE PLANNING PROGRAM OF GULF OF MÉXICO AND
CARIBBEAN SEA (RMUPP of GM&CS)

Gilberto Enríquez Hernández Fernando Antonio Rosete Vergés

Deputy-director of Regional and Marine Use Planning Professor-Researcher
National Institute of Ecology and Climate Change México
México farosete@yahoo.com.mx
gilberto_enriquez@inecc.gob.mx
Eneas Aguirre von Wobeser
Juan Carlos Aguilar del Moral Postdoctoral-Researcher
Head of Coastal Use planning Department Biomedical Researcher Institute
National Institute of Ecology and Climate Change México
México eaguirre@iibiomedicas.unam.mx
caguilar@ine.gob.mx
Alberto Pereira Corona
Benigno Hernández de La Torre Professor-Researcher
Head of Marine Use planning Department Autonomous University of Quintana Roo
National Institute of Ecology and Climate Change México
México apereira@uqroo.mx
bhernan@ine.gob.mx
 Resumen

A Geo-hydrometeorological Risk Index was set up for the model of the Regional and
Marine Use Planning Program of the Gulf of México and Caribbean Sea (RMUPP of
GM&CS), considering flood prone areas and incidence of hurricanes as hazards in order to
determine the vulnerability of coastal communities to climate change effects.

The index shows that, the most susceptible locations to the effects of climate change in
Environmental Management Units (EMU) are located in the municipalities of Quintana Roo
and the coastal margin of the Yucatan Peninsula, Tabasco -mainly in the area of the mouth
of Grijalva-Usumacinta River-, northern region of Tamaulipas, the mouth of the Pánuco
River and some regions along the middle portion of the Gulf of Mexico.

Despite this work is considered an important contribution to the RMUPP, their results
should be complemented with more detailed data, including the most recent climate
change scenarios and larger-scale information on the characteristics of the coastal
territory.
 CLIMATE RISK MANAGEMENT IN LAND-USE PLANNING …
INTRODUCTION: Hazard and risk issues have been
formally included into the legal framework of Mexico. The Civil
Protection General Law define risk as the damage or loss on
an agent that could be affected, as a result of the interaction
between vulnerability and the ocurrence of a disturbing agent.
Risk = Vulnerability + Hazard
AREA OF STUDY: The coastal-terrestrial portion of the
RMUPP of GM&CS includes 168,462.4 km2 corresponding to
143 coastal municipalities of the states of Quintana Roo,
Yucatán, Campeche, Tabasco, Veracruz y Tamaulipas.
1/5
RISK: A Geo-hydrometeorological Risk Index was defined as
function of :
f ((localities and population) + Floods + Hurricanes
occurence + rainfall) )
FLOOD HAZARD: It was calculated A) through a terrain
slope analysis on an updated Digital Elevation Model (DEM)
with 90m of horizontal resolution and 45cm of vertical
resolution to identify ≤1% sloping surfaces; B) identifying
influence rivers zones likely to be afected by overflow (lower
tributaries and main streams) in heavy rain or exceptional
avenues events and C) Analysis of total rainfall regimes.
A) Slopes–Geomorphology
analysis
 CLIMATE RISK MANAGEMENT IN LAND-USE PLANNING … 2/5

HURRICANES HAZARD: The occurrence of hurricanes was

analyzed as a measure of its impact on coastal region based on
the historical hurricane paths information of the Center of
Atmospheric Sciences (UNAM). Furthermore, areas less than 4
feet above mean sea level were defined on the DEM to represent
the susceptibility of flooding by associated raining effect.

B) Sensitivity of rivers-overflowing analysis (tributaries and main streams)

C) Rainfall regimes
CLIMATE RISK MANAGEMENT IN LAND-USE PLANNING … 3/5

VULNERABILITY OF LOCALITIES AND POPULATION: Coverages of isolated and marginalized localities and
population density were analized as vulnerability elements.

Based on CONAPO criteria (2002) and the National Population Program 2001-2006, an analysis of dispersion and
distribution of coastal localities with less accessibility to goods and services, considering them as the most social and
demographic vulnerable condition.
 CLIMATE RISK MANAGEMENT IN LAND-USE PLANNING … 4/5

ASSESSMENT OF RISK BY EMU:

Vulnerability elements and flood and

hurricans occurrence hazards were
integrated in order to assess the geo-
hydrometorological risk into EMU´s .

The index shows that the most susceptible

localities to the effects of climate change are
localized in EMU´s of the municipalities of
Quintana Roo and the coastal margin of the
Yucatan Peninsula, Tabasco -mainly in the
area of the mouth of the Grijalva-Usumacinta
River-, northern region of Tamaulipas, the
mouth of the Panuco River and localized
regions along the middle portion of the Gulf
of Mexico

Flood and hurricanes occurrence risk

 CLIMATE RISK MANAGEMENT IN LAND-USE PLANNING … 5/5

ESTRATEGIES AND GENERAL ACTIONS:

STRATEGIES ACTIONS
Risk analysis allowed geographically contextualize the
ADAPTATION AND • TO PROMOTE USE OF TECHNOLOGIES
threats from climate change effects in the Gulf of
MITIGATION OF
GLOBAL CLIMATE
TO REDUCE GREENHOUSE GASES (GHG) Mexico and Caribbean Sea on large-scale (1: 250
CHANGE EFFECTS
EMISSIONS AND PARTICULATED MATTER
FOR INDUSTRY AND MOTOR VEHICLES 000), which the RMUPP of GM&CS intended to
respond through a set of strategies and actions for
specific EMU´s (DOF, November 24th, 2012)

http://www.dof.gob.mx/nota_detalle.php?codigo=5279086&fecha=24
/11/2012
RMUPP of PREVENTION OR • TO AVOID URBAN SETTLEMENTS IN
GM&CS
MITIGATION OF THE FLOODING AND COLLAPSE SENSITIVE http://www.semarnat.gob.mx/temas/ordenamientoecologico/bitacor
EFECTS OF
OCCUPATION OF
AREAS, ECOLOGICAL RESTORATION a/Paginas/B_A_GolfoMex_Caribe.aspx
PROPOSAL AREAS THREATENED AREAS, WETLANDS, COASTAL DUNES
BY RAINFALL AND MANGROVE.

In this regard, three major strategies and 4 actions

related to mitigation and adaptation to climate change
issues were included in the program.

• TO IMPLEMENT CAMPAIGNES TO
RELOCATE PEOPLE OUT OF RISK Despite this exercise was an important contribution to
PREVENTION OR
AREAS.
MITIGATION OF the RMUPP is considered that their results should be
POPULATION RISKS • TO SET AND IMPROVE EARLY
WARNING SYSTEMS (EWS) FOR complemented with more detailed data which
EXTREME HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL
EVENTS incorporates most recent climate change scenarios
and larger-scale information on the characteristics of
ESTRATEGIES AND ACTIONS OF MITIGATION TO CLIMATE CHANGE the coastal territory.
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