Climate and Disaster Risk

Assessment
(CDRA)
Overview
TOPIC O
UTLINE:
- Definition
- Rationale and Purpose of Mainstreaming
CDRA into the Local Planning Process
- Guiding Concepts and Frameworks of
CDRA
- CDRA 5-Step Process
- Mainstreaming Framework of CDRA into the
CLUP Process
CLIMATE AND DISASTER RISK ASSESSMENT
 It seeks to establish risk and vulnerable areas by analyzing the hazard, exposure,
vulnerability/sensitivity and adaptive capacities of the various exposed elements.

 It identifies the priority decision areas that needs to be addressed given the
acceptable or tolerable levels of risks and allow the identification of various disaster
risk and climate change adaptation and mitigation measures and spatial policy
interventions.

 It generates planning information to provide a better understanding of the existing

situation on risks and vulnerabilities to natural hazards and climate change to
enable planners and decision makers to come up with informed decisions during the
CLUP formulation process.
CLIMATE AND DISASTER RISK ASSESSMENT

CDRA is the process of studying risks and vulnerabilities

of exposed elements namely, the people, urban areas,
agriculture, forestry and fishery production areas, critical
point facilities, and lifeline infrastructure associated with
natural hazards and climate change.
Guides for mainstreaming C C A-DRR into C LUP
and ZO and conducting the C DRA
Process

Climate Change Adaptation and Disaster Risk Supplemental Guidelines on Mainstreaming

Reduction (Volume 2, CLUP Guidebook 2014, Climate and Disaster Risks in the Comprehensive
HLURB) Land Use Plan (Project Climate Twin Phoenix:
HLURB/Climate Change Commission/UNDP/AusAID)
 Purpose of Mainstreaming C DRA into
CLUP
Better understand natural hazards and climate change
and how these would likely alter the development path
of the locality

Understand risks posed by natural hazards and

climate change on exposed areas, sectors and
communities

Identify priority decision areas and development

challenges posed by climate change and natural hazards
 Purpose of Mainstreaming CDRA into
CLUP
Determine realistic projections on demand and supply
of land

Incorporate spatial development goals, objectives and

targets to reduce risks and vulnerabilities

Make informed decisions to effectively address

risks and vulnerabilities
Purpose of Ma instreaming C DRA into C
LUP
Identify appropriate risk reduction and climate
change adaptation and mitigation measures as
inputs to the comprehensive development
planning and investment programming
CDR
A

CLUP LDRRMP

CDP LCCAP
Convergence of Climate Change Adaptation and
Disaster Risk Management

l
ntia tions
e c
ot ne
P on
C
 Climate and POPULATION
Disaster Risk
Assessment URBAN USE AREAS

► studying risks and

NATURAL-RESOURCE
vulnerabilities of exposed BASED
elements associated with PRODUCTION
AREAS
natural hazards and climate
change. LIFELINE UTILITIES

CRITICAL
POINT
FACILITIES
Climate and Disaster Risk Assessment

CLIMATE CHANGES
VULNERABILITY DISASTER RISK ASSESSMENT
ASSESSMENT
CLIMATE
Temperatu HAZARD
re Rainfall
PROJECTION
Extreme
S
Events
FLO O DING TSUNAM
Sea Level
LANDSLIDES I
Rise
Forest POPULATIO
CLIMATE LIFELINE
Agriculture N URBAN USE
Coastal AREAS UTILITIE
IMPACT S
Area NATURA
CHAINS CRITICAL
Urban L
Area RESOURCE-BASED POINT
FACILITIES
Conceptual
Frameworks
- CLIMATE CHANGE
VULNERABILITY
ASSESSMENT (IPCC AR
4)

- DISASTER RISK
ASSESSMENT
(UN)
 THE C DRA PRO C
• Collect andESS
Organize Climate Change and
Step Hazard Information
1
• Scope the Potential Impacts of Hazards and Climate
Step
Change
2
• Develop Exposure Data Base
Step
3
• Conduct Climate and Disaster Risk Assessment
Step
4
• Summarize Findings
Step
5
Step 1. Collect and analyze
climate and hazard information

14
Step 1. Collect and analyze
climate and hazard information

Loc a l climate change scenario

The climate projections are available for
each region and province of the
country. The municipality or city, at
first pass, may consider
the provincial data, and consult PAGASA
on the applicability.
■ Seasonal Temperature
■ Seasonal Rainfall
■ Frequency of Extreme Events
Climate Change Projections (Seasonal Mean Temperature)
Medium-range
SEASON Emission
Scenario
2020 2050

Dec-Jan-Feb (DJF) 0.8 to 1.0 1.6 to 2.2

Mar-Apr-May (MAM) 0.9 to 1.3 2.0 to 2.5

Jun-Jul-Aug (JJA) 0.8 to 1.3 1.6 to 2.6

Sep-Oct-Nov (SON) 0.8 to 1.1 1.5 to 2.2

Warm months
becoming
hotter
Step 1. Collect and analyze climate
and hazard information
Inventory of hazards and their
characteristics
Rain-induced Landslide Climate Adjusted Flood Hazard Maps
Susceptibility Map (flood modelling)
Step 1. Collect and analyze climate
and hazard information
Inventory of hazards and their characteristics
Characterizing Hazard:

Spatial Extent - areas within the municipality/city and certain barangays that are
likely to be inundated or affected by a particular hazard;

Magnitude/Intensity - the estimated strength of the hazard that will impact an area
(i.e. Flood can be expressed in water depth, water flow velocity, and/or duration,
storm surge expressed in wave heights, earthquake ground shaking expressed as
intensity scale);

Frequency/Probability of occurrence - refers to the likelihood or the average

recurrence interval (expressed in years) that a hazard event may happen; chance of
it occurring per year (expressed in percentage)
Step 1. Collect and analyze climate
and hazard information
Inventory of hazards and their characteristics
Characterizing Hazard:

Duration – refers to how long the hazard will occur (expressed in minutes, days,
weeks etc.)

Predictability – refers to the ability of human systems/technologies to accurately

determine when a hazard might occur including its characteristics.

Speed of Onset – whether the occurrence of the hazard is slow/creeping (i.e.

SLR, Drought) or rapid/fast (Flashfloods, earthquakes, Landslides).
Step 1. Collect and analyze climate
hazard
and Historical disaster damage/loss
data
information
No. of casualties No. of Affected No. of houses Damage to Properties Source Observed Affected
of
Hazard Events Daily
and Barangays
Description Private/ Informat
Rainfall Dead
Inst. Injured
Total Missing Persons Families Totally Partially Infra Agri
Comm’l ion
D e ce m be r 2 6 ,, 1 9 9 3 : floo d du e to
Typ ho on P uring . Aff ected D isaste r
All barangays 0 0 0 6,9 60 1,160 0 2 00 1 ,1 26 ,3 5 0 2 ,1 3 7 ,5 00 0 0 3 ,2 6 3, 85 0 re por t
m ajority of the populati on.

Brg ys. Pautao,

7 -Jan-0 2 : Flo od due to h e avy rain. D u g s a n go n, P yapag , Disaster
1 0 0 No data 634 0 0 No data No data 0 0 0
Aff ected fi ve ba rangays . Pongtud and re por t
C am b u ayon
Brg ys. Poblacion,
D e ce m be r 2 2 , 2 0 0 3 : flo od d u e to C am p o , P autao,
D isaste r
c onti nuous heav y rains. Aff ected C a bu ga o, 0 0 0 775 155 0 5 1 ,0 7 9, 00 0 1 ,6 4 6 ,2 50 0 0 2 ,7 2 5 ,2 50
re por t
Payapag ,
7 ba rangays.
Dugsangoand
C am b u ayon

Brg ys. Poblacion,

D e ce m be r 2 3 , 2 0 0 5 : flo od d u e to C am p o , P autao,
D isaste r
c onti nuous heav y rain. Aff ected 7 C a bu ga o, Payapag , 1 0 0 378 68 0 0 0 8 ,3 7 3 ,9 85 0 0 8 ,3 7 3 ,9 85
re por t
D u g sang o n ,an d P on g t
ba rangays.
ud

Jan . 1 0 -1 6 , 2 0 0 9 : flo od d u e to
D isaste r
c onti nuous heavy rain. Aff ected All barangays 0 0 0 No Data 433 0 41 3 ,0 5 0, 00 0 1 ,1 9 7 ,1 35 0 0 4 ,2 4 7 ,1 35
re por t
all ba rangays
Jan .1 -3 , 2 0 1 1 : floo d du e to
D am ag e
c onti nuous heavy rain. Aff ected All barangays 0 0 0 No Data No Data 0 0 4 ,0 0 0, 00 0 483,000 0 0 4 ,4 8 3 ,0 00
Re por t
all ba rangays.
Jan . 2 4 -F e b. 2 , 2 0 1 1 floo d du e to
c onti nuous heav y rain. 256 2 , 03 7 / 256
D am ag e
All barangays 0 0 0 10 , 18 5 Evac uate d 0 0 6 ,1 00 ,0 0 0 4 ,2 6 7 ,7 94 0 0 10,367,794
fam ilie s e vacu ate d to e vacu atio n Re por t
20
center.
Step 1. Collect and analyze climate
and hazard information
Summary barangay level hazard inventory matrix
Table 3.4 . Sample Hazard Inventory Ma
Rain-Induced trix
Baranga Floo Typhoo Sea level Coastal
landslide
y d Storm surge Drought n Rise Erosion
Brgy. 1 √ √ √ √ √ √
Brgy. 2 √ √ √ √
Brgy. 3 √ √ √ √
Brgy. 4 √ √ √ √
Brgy. 5 √ √ √ √ √ √
Brgy. 6 √ √ √ √
Brgy. 7 √ √ √ √ √ √ √
Brgy. 8 √ √ √ √
Brgy. 9 √ √ √
Step 2. Scoping the potential impacts
of climate change and disasters

22
Step 2. Scoping the potential impacts
of climate change and disasters
This step takes off from the gathering of climate, climate
change, hazard and disaster information (Step 1)
• Rough mapping of potential and existing impacts using Impact Chain
Diagrams or tables (usually per ecosystem/landscape, sector or
system of interests);

• Determine climate change stimuli or hazards which will affect key sectors
so it can be studied further in the DRA or CCVA;

23
Sample summary of climate change impacts using the CLIRAM Tool 24
Step 2. Scoping the potential impacts
of climate change and disasters

Indirect
Impact
Direct Impact

Climate Stimulus
Indirect
Impact
Direct Impact

Indirect
Impact

Source: Adopted from Climate Impacts: Global and Regional Adaptation Support
Platform

Impacts refer to the effects on natural and human systems of physical events,
of disasters, and of climate change – IPCC 25
Step 2. Scoping the potential impacts
of climate change and disasters
Sample Impact Chain (Agriculture)

26
Step 3. Exposure Database
Development

27
Exposure Database provides POPULATION

baseline information pertaining

to the elements at risk. URBAN USE AREAS

Elements at risk refer to

population, assets, structure, NATURAL-RESOURCE
BASED PRODUCTION
economic activities and AREAS

environmental resources which

are located in areas exposed LIFELINE UTILITIES
to potential impacts of
climate change and damaging
hazard events. CRITICAL
POINT
FACILITIES
Step 3. Exposure Database
Development
Natural Resource
based Production Critical Point
Population Urban Areas Lifeline Utilities Facilities
Areas

• People • Residential • Crop Production Areas • Transportation • Educational Facilities

• Commercial • Forest • Communication • Health facilities
• Industrial Production/Protection • Power • Social Welfare related
• Tourism Areas • Water facilities
• Cemeteries • Fishery areas • Governance
• Parks and Open Spaces • Water related point
• Other unique urban uses facilities
• Communication point
facilities
• Power related point
facilities
• Bridges

• Household • Existing land • Existing • Road maps

maps use land use map • Infrastructure
• Residential map areas,
(Agri and
utilities map • Infrastructure
land use forest
plantation • Waterlines and utilities
areas) • Power lines map
29
Exposure maps
Exposure maps
Sample CBMS
Population
SHAPEFILES Attributes
NEEDED
► Household Control
(GPS Survey)
► Type of Housing Unit
Points ► Age
► Barangay ► Disability status
Boundary
► Access to early warning system
► Informal settlers
► Awareness to hazard impact and climate
change
► Employment Status
► Income status (Poverty Threshold)
► Educational Attainment
► Literacy Status
► Access to Financial Assistance
► Access to Information
► Capacity and Willingness to retrofit or relocate
► Government Investments
Urban Use
Area
SHAPEFILES ATTRIBUTES
NEEDED
► Updated ► Urban Land Use Category (Residential,
industrial)
commercial,
Existing ► Average construction/replacement cost per square meter
Land Uses ► Building condition
► Barangay ► Wall construction materials
► Date of Construction
Boundar ► Structure employing hazard mitigation design
y ► Local awareness to climate change
► Area coverage to infrastructure related mitigating
measures
► Government Regulations
► Capacity and Willingness to retrofit or relocate
► Government Investments
► Insurance Coverage
► Available Alternative Sites
Natural resource-based production areas
SHAPEFILES NEEDED ATTRIBUTES
► Existing Land Use ► Classification
► SAFDZ ► Variety Produced
► Barangay ► Annual Production/ha
Boundary
► Replacement Cost
► No. of dependent farmers
Critical point facilities
SHAPEFILES NEEDED
► Control Points of Social Facilities
(School, Evacuation Center,
Multipurpose Hall, Municipal
Gym, RHU, Hospitals, water
related facility, airport, seaport,
barangay hall)
► Barangay Boundary
ATTRIBUTES
► Wall construction materials
► Building Condition
► Structure employing hazard
mitigation design
► Date of Construction
► Government Regulation on hazard
mitigation and/or structural
design
► Access to infrastructure
related mitigating measure
Lifeline Utilities
SHAPEFILES ATTRIBUTES
NEEDED ► Classification
► Road Network System ► Length/Distance
► Drainage System ► Construction/replacement cost
► Bridges ► Construction materials used
► Ormeco Pole ► Condition
► Communication Tower ► Structure employing hazard
► Water Pipeline mitigation design

► Barangay Boundary
Step 3. Exposure Database
Development

38
Step 4. Conduct Climate and Disaster Risk Assessment
(CDRA)

Outputs
• Risk scores and maps

39
Step 4. Conduct Climate and Disaster Risk Assessment
(CDRA)

40
Step 4. Conduct Climate and Disaster Risk Assessment
(CDRA)
CONSEQUENCE ANALYSIS

41
Step 4. Conduct Climate and Disaster Risk Assessment
(CDRA)
RISK ESTIMATION
Risk is operationalized using the
function:

Risk = Likelihood of Occurrence x

Severity of Consequence

42
Step 4. Conduct Climate and Disaster Risk Assessment
(CDRA)

Bonbon

Poblacion

barra
Taboc

Igpit
Step 4. Conduct Climate and Disaster Risk Assessment (CDRA)
OTHER EXAMPLES OF RISK MAPS

Risks to

Ground

Shaking
Step 4. Conduct Climate and Disaster Risk Assessment (CDRA)
OTHER EXAMPLES OF RISK MAPS

Flood Risks
Step 4. Conduct Climate and Disaster Risk Assessment (CDRA)
OTHER EXAMPLES OF RISK MAPS
Step 5. Summarize
Findings

Figure 3.6.1. Detailing of decision areas. Identification of major decision areas (urban use areas)
using the Identified flood risk decision areas (right) and Sea Level Rise vulnerability decision
areas
(left). Indicative boundary of two major decision areas in Barangay Igpiit highlighted in green.
Step 5. Summarize
Findings A B
T a b l e 3.6.1 S a m p l e I s s u e s M a t r i x U r b a n U s e A r e a s
C D E
Decision
Description Problems/Hazards Impacts/Implications P o li cy I n t e r v e n t i o n s
Area/s
Igp i t - Area l ocat ed a t Areas prone to • S evere potenti al • Relocation of informal settler fa m i l i es , e m p l oy
Inform al t he m o u t h of riverine a n d co as t a l d a m a g e s to residential m a n a g e d retreat or i ncremental relocation;
settler a r e a s t he fl ooding, pot enti al structures d u e to • E s t a b l i s h m e n t of early w a r n i n g sys tem s a n d
(MDA-1) Bungcalalan a r e a s ub m ers i on to floods. form ulat ion of flood co nt i nge ncy p l a n s to
River a d j a c e n t d u e to s e a level rise • P otential m i n i m i z e pot ent ial injuries a n d c a s u a l t i es
to the i n the l o n g term. s ub m ers i o n of d u r i n g t he i m p l e m e n t a t i o n of relocation;
Macalajar Bay C h a n g e s in tidal s ettlements d u e to • Identification of a d d i t i o n a l 9 . 2 9 hectares of
patterns m a y i m p a c t s e a level rise i n the residential to a c c o m m o d a t e potentially
storm s u rg e patterns l o n g term. affe c t e d f a m i l i es a n d provision of
specifically w a v e • P otential isolation of com p rehe ns i ve h o u s i n g p r o g r a m for a ff e c t e d
heights an d inland c o m m u n i t i e s , injuries fa m i l i es especially t he i nformal settlers;
inundation. a n d c a s ua l t i e s • D e s i g n a t i n g a r e a s for w e t l a n d a n d
d u r i n g floods a n d , m a n g r o v e restoration a n d serve a s part of
storm s u rg e s ; the eco- tourism network;
Note: Risks to other hazards • E s t a b l i s h m e n t of s e a • N e w transportation sys tem s will not b e
can be incorporated to walls a n d pur s ue d i n t he a r e a to d i s c o u r a g e future
describe the area for a more
comprehensive a n d multi-
mitigation measures settlement g r o w t h ;
hazard approach in to retain current l a n d
identifying policy u s e s will b e costly,
interventions/ costs c a n not b e
recommendations
s houl dered by
a ffe c t e d f a m i l i es
a n d the LGU;
• Future uncontrolled
g ro w t h of settlements
m a y increase exposure
a n d risks;
Mainstreaming Framework of CDRA
into CLUP 12- step process
 Entry points of CCA-DRR into the 12-step process
• Incorporate the
conduct of the CDRA in
the work and financial
plan
• Organize key sectoral
• Include local • Fine tuning Vision descriptors • Enhanced understanding of climate • Specific targets/success indicators to • Incorporate climate change adaptation
and success indicators based on and disaster risks affecting the locality address current risks and disaster risk reduction concerns in
stakeholders and the relevant findings from the • Priority Decision Areas based on risk • Goals, objectives and success evaluating development thrust and
spatial strategy options
representatives from CDRA evaluation indicators related to future planned
• Ensuring selected dev’t thrust and
• Policy Interventions/Options with disaster risk reduction and climate
the hazard mapping emphasis on Risk Management change adaptation spatial strategies account for the
future climate change scenario and its
agencies who will Options
possible impacts to the severity and
• Adjusted land demand to account for
participate and assist in backlogs due to risks and
frequency of natural hazards

representatives who the CDRA vulnerabilities

• Analysis of land supply and
will participate in suitability based climate change and
possible impacts on the severity and
the CDRA frequency of natural hazards

STEP 1 STEP 2 Step 3 Step 4 Step 5 Step 6

Organize Identifying Set the Analyze the Set the Goals and Establish Development
Thrust and Spatial
Stakeholders Vision Situation Objectives Strategies

STEP 12 STEP 11 Step 10 Step 9 Step 8 Step 7

Monit or and Evaluate Implement the Review, A d o p t and Conduct Public Drafting the Zoning Prepare the Land Use
the CLUP and ZO CLUP and ZO Appr ov e the CLUP Ordinance Plan
and ZO
Hearing

• Identification of risk reduction
a nd climate c hange
adaptation monitoring
parameters a nd procedures
• PPAs impact monitoring
a nd evaluation
• Strengthen the support institutional
structures, systems and procedures
for enforcement and monitoring
• Program and project assessment,
prioritization and development
• Budgetary support/requirements
• Information, Education and
Communication Campaign
• Interface with other local level
plans to implement DRR-CCA
agenda
• Ensure identified risk management
options to effectively address
current and prevent future risks are
translated in the CLUP and ZO;
• Inviting representatives from
agencies involved in DRR-CCA (i.e.
hazard mapping agencies,
Provincial DRRMO, Provincial CCO)
during the review and approval
process
• Consultation with stakeholders on
the acceptability of proposed risk
management options
• Establishing hazard overlay zones
and priority risk management zones/
districts
• Zoning regulations to reduce risks
by applying risk reduction
approaches such as density control,
hazard resistant building design
standards, site development
standards, and additional
development requirements
• Consultation with hazard experts
and stakeholders in the
identification of zoning regulations
• Climate and disaster risk sensitive
land use allocation/spatial location.
• Applying risk reduction approaches
(risk avoidance, mitigation, transfer
and retention) in designing the land
use scheme and land use policy
development
• Menu of programs and projects for
disaster risk reduction; and climate
change adaptation
References

- CLUP Guidebooks 2013-2014

- Supplemental Guidelines on
Mainstreaming CCA-DRR into the CLUP
- GIS Guidebook: A Guide to
Data Management
- Climate Change in the
Philippines, PAGASA
- “We Know Enough About Climate
Change” GIZ
THANK YOU VERY
MUCH!!!