Work of

the
Future
Gordon Betcherman, University of Ottawa
Anil Verma, University of Toronto
Future of work?
• Globalizing economy
• Artificial intelligence
• Adaptive technologies
• Digital economy
• Connectivity
• Digital manufacturing
• Platform-based work
• Job disruption
• Individual aspirations
• +COVID as accelerator
Repeated technological revolutions
 • Technological effects are generally exaggerated in the short-

Technology term and underestimated in the long-term.

• Automated telephone switching systems invented in 1892, but
&Skills telephone operators did not really disappear until 1980s
• In the past, technological change has been ‘skill-biased’ –
Futures reduced demand for low-skilled labor and increased
demand for high-skilled labor
Some known effects
• Effects of newer adaptive technologies are cutting across all
jobs and skill levels, but effects of AI in particular seem
concentrated on higher-skilled jobs
Forecasts: strong skill bias in future job trends
But effects of new generative AI seem different

Soruce: Felten et al (2023)

Some regions are more vulnerable to automation

Jobs at risk of automation across selected CMAs in Ontario

39

Source: OECD calculations on Labour Force Surveys

 In what occupations do regions face the risk of losing
many jobs?

Region Number of workers at risk % of total workers in region Occupation (ISCO)

Kitchener-Waterloo 31 702 4.36 Business and Administration

Associate Professionals

30 002 4.13 Sales Workers

22 201 3.06 Food Processing,

Woodworking, Garment and
Other Craft and Related
Trades Workers

19 092 2.63 Personal Services Workers

17 126 2.36 Metal, Machinery and39

Related Trades Workers

Source: OECD calculations on Labour Force Surveys

Responding to the changing nature of work
 The Human Capital Index
How well will today’s children be prepared for the future
 Figure 1

Disruption of Current Jobs & Policy Responses

High

Train/Re-train
Skill level of the job/worker

Medium to work with

tech Retrain
+
Redeploy
Exit Strategy

Low

Low 1-25% Medium 40-60% High 80-100%

Share of disrupted tasks in the job

 Three-way Partnership in Skill Formation

Individuals
+ Families

2 Questions:
• Who decides?
• Who pays?

Government Employer
 Training, re-training or back-to-school?

Education

Re-training+
Redeployment
Investment required in effective adaptation

Training on-the-job

Share of disrupted tasks in the job

 Figure 5

Who pays for skill redevelopment?

Investment required skill development ($$$)

u al
id
div

Go
In

ve
Employer

rn
me
t n

Early Eduaction Higher Eduaction Mid-career training Re-training Re-Education

Skill Formation over the life cousre

Inclusive Development
• Investing in people
• Universal right to skill upgrading
• Develop indices of life-long learning
• Free access to tools for career development –
planning your next 2-3 jobs.

• Lifting the bottom

Stop and reverse the trend in growing:
• Inequality
• precariousness in employment
Human development is a challenge in developing countries because
of large informal sectors
Platform-based Work & Organizations

• Digital platform that connects customers (demand) with providers (workers)

• Value of the platform is the connection between the two, as opposed to the direct provision of goods or services in a typical firm
• Different types of connections -- services (Uber), products (Amazon), financial payments (Pay Pal), work (Amazon Mechanical Turk)
• The concept of a ‘job’ is disrupted in platform organizations in terms of:
• How work is allocated and the process of work
• Power of management
• Skills development
• Implications:
• Regulation
• Labour-management negotiations
• Managing the workforce ecosystem
Remote work
or
work-from-anywhere
(WfA)
Trends
• Big surge during COVID.
• Many attempts to return to 5-9-5 (5 days a week, 9-5 pm) but
unsuccessful so far.
• Most people commuting to work 2-3 days a week.
• Has the future arrived?
• BIG QUESTION before us:
Is this sustainable or are we likely to see more changes ahead,
given other tech and globalization developments?
 -Realistic interaction
0-100% continuum -user-friendly
interface

Technology
-Presence essential
-No clear preference - Productivity
-Employers and measured by output
WfA
Er-Ee
employees have only

Nature of Work
different
preferences

Preference
Who can work remotely?
• Dingel & Neiman (2020): 37% of US
workforce
• Baker (2021): 25% of US Workforce
• Statcan: Deng, Morissette and
Messacar (2020) – 39% in Canada
Why work from home?

• Less time commuting – less cost

• Greater productivity
• Job satisfaction
• Less sickness
• More time for family + myself
• Cleaner environment
Why would Mangers want WfA?
•Retain talent – incl. some target
groups
•Productivity gains
•Save on office costs
•Climate benefits of reduction in
commuting
Why would managers NOT want WfA?
• Performance can not be measured by output
alone.
• Key organizational needs not met by WfA:
• Creating an organiuzational culture
• Fostering creativity in groups
• Inducting new members in the organization
• Performance review; managing rewards,
• Managing transitions such as promotions, task
assignments at home and abroad
• Loss of control over operations
 The Policy Challenge:
• employees and teams should be empowered to make
decisions on WfA and office schedules, not CEOs or
individuals alone.
-Raj Choudhury, Harvard Business School

• Create a process similar to “reasonable accommodation” to

match employer and employee needs

• The great sorting of workers and employers is happening

 Break out discussion
Based on your current job, or your most recent
job,
• How has technology affected how you do your
work and what skills are required?
• How do you think technology will affect the
future of work in your field and how you will
develop your career accordingly?