WHITEPAPER

Asset management
through leak prediction
Analysis on the impact of temperature
fluctuations
 Foreword

The provision of a quality water supply is still a huge challenge

the world over, and this is being exacerbated by climate change,
pollution and population growth. According to a recent UNICEF and
WHO report, some 2.2 billion people worldwide do not have access
to safely managed drinking water services, while 4.2 billion do not
have proper sanitation.

The coronavirus crisis has highlighted the pressing need to address

supply issues. The increase in domestic consumption, due to lock-
down measures, has been compounded by additional hand washing
as one of the main ways to prevent the transmission of the virus.
This seemingly straightforward gesture is not an option for the
three billion people who lack basic sanitation, thus aggravating the
magnitude of the pandemic.

To ensure a safe water supply, water distribution must be improved

by implementing corrective and preventive maintenance policies,
procuring equipment to control and monitor quality, and investing
in infrastructure.

Against this background, it is essential to define a method that

facilitates decision-making on how to prioritize investment in the
most vulnerable assets. This is the basis of asset management.
The ultimate goal of improving service is to anticipate changes in
demand, enhance water quality and reduce disruption caused by
failures, such as water leaks, outages and damage.

Water is now more than ever a strategic resource, and its quality
and supply must be constant and safe.

Francisco Ríos
Operations Director (Idrica Colombia)

Asset management through leak prediction

Asset management through leak prediction

Every piece of infrastructure has a limited lifespan and with many of the pipes
in the current water network approaching the end of their natural life, analysis
is essential. In this context, the criteria for prioritizing investments must
be defined according to the positive or negative impact of a system failure.

There are indicators that can help us to define the state of the infrastructure,
and subsequently to take effective measures which ensure the sustainability
of the network in the medium and long term.

An essential exercise for decision-making in asset management, unders-

tood as an organized method that sets the priorities for asset renewal, is
the definition and measurement of indicators that provide insights into the
state of the infrastructure. These indicators help to locate problems and
compare areas or sectors that require action to be taken, based on an order
of priorities. Additionally, the economic resources required to perform the
operations can be quantified and those with the greatest cost-benefit impact
can be prioritized. It is also worth mentioning that each of the variables and
indicators used in asset management is based on a prior identification of
needs provided by the service manager. These needs subsequently undergo
a validation study.

One of the indicators suggested for asset management is the “daily increase
in temperature and leaks in the distribution networks”. After the observa-
tions made by the maintenance department of a water supply service in a
municipality, a relationship between sudden changes in daily temperature
and a possible increase in leaks in the distribution pipes was detected.

As a result of this hypothesis, a study was undertaken to ascertain the daily

increase in temperature, i.e., the difference between the minimum and
maximum temperatures during the day. This was then compared with the
number of breaks in the water mains during a full year.

In this initial comparison, no significant correlation was found between

these variables. However, as the process continued, it was deduced that
failures are not always detected immediately and that some pipes often
broke some days later. For this reason, the study range was changed from
monitoring daily temperature fluctuations to identifying weekly average
increases. Additionally, the analysis took into account the number of leaks
based on the different materials used in the network (mainly fiber cement,
polyethylene and cast iron).

According to the information compiled about the average increase in weekly temperatures and leaks based on the
different types of materials, graphs were drawn to display the behavior of these variables over time. The results
showed that temperature increases had no direct effect on fiber cement pipes. A slight effect was noted in the case
of polyethylene pipes, but the results were not conclusive enough to establish a direct correlation.

However, a clear link between both variables was identified in the case of cast-iron pipes, based on the parallel
behavior of the two variables. In other words, when there was a greater average increase in temperature, the number
of leaks increased. Similarly, when the temperature increase leveled off, there was a similar decrease in the number
of leaks reported (see graphs).

Asset management through leak prediction 1

The graph for the cast-iron water mains shows that when the average weekly
increase in temperature was greater, the number of breaks in the network
increased proportionally in many cases. It also shows that in the weeks
where the temperature increase was smaller, the number of leaks dropped
significantly.

Leakage ratio FC - Temperature increase Leakage ratio CI - Temperature increase

Leakage ratio PE - Temperature increase

Increase in average weekly temperature

No. of leaks

Graphs for fiber cement (FC), cast iron (CI) and

polyethylene (PE), with temperature changes

However, it would be premature to draw conclusions based solely on these

results, taking into account that this initial exercise did not take into account
other parameters that could affect the study, such as depth, lifespan, degree
of corrosion, type of infill, volume of water transferred and pipe diameter.

In conclusion, this type of study is a part of asset management, in which

the information available about the constituent parts of the infrastructure
is analyzed to identify the most appropriate indicators to improve deci-
sion-making. Similarly, these processes help to predict possible failures in the
systems, as well as to anticipate the search for solutions or early responses
that can optimize and prioritize investments in the most vulnerable assets.

Idrica offers a technological solution for asset management, which identifies

the infrastructure most at risk through the correlation of multiple variables
based on the experience of Global Omnium, a company with over 130 years
of experience in water cycle management. It identifies and prioritizes the
assets that need most investment, making the most of available resources.

Asset management through leak prediction 2

About Idrica
Idrica is a leading company specializing in water cycle manage-
ment. Its unique value proposition is based on the efficiency and
quality of its services and on the GoAigua technological solution
used for the digital transformation of the industry.

Contact us for an analysis of the challenges facing your orga-

nization and learn how the GoAigua technology is helping its
customers in the water industry.

+34 963 86 05 00
sales@idrica.com