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Dangerous designs

THE army is clearly furious. The events of last week have challenged its primacy in
the calculus of power, and it is seeking to claw its way back. It should not surprise
anyone that it is looking to respond with ‘overwhelming force’.

Past attacks on the institution on a much smaller scale have elicited similar responses; this time,
the scale of the attack was much larger. The images of the gates to GHQ being forced open,
monuments to heroes being defaced, citizens pelting army vehicles with stones, and the burning
down of a corps commander’s residence will not be easy to scrub away from public memory.
Hence, a decision appears to have been made to replace them with a memory of abiding dread.

The press release issued after Monday’s corps commanders meeting reflects this strategy.
However, the army must reconsider the path it intends to take.

The ISPR has said the army will be seeking trials of suspects under the Army Act and the Official
Secrets Act. Both laws have long been criticised by rights activists and ex-servicemen for being
repugnant to fundamental legal rights, including the right to a fair and transparent trial, the right
to proper legal representation, the right to appeal sentences and, most importantly, the right to be
presumed innocent until proven guilty.

The miscreants who committed arson, looting or destruction of property deserve punishment, but
their punishment should equal the severity of their crimes. Trying them for rioting under army
laws is a gross overreaction. The government must not condemn any citizen to a military trial out
of any vindictiveness over their political leanings.

Prosecution of the violence and mayhem seen on May 9 and 10 should be left to the civilians. The
army should limit its role to sharing evidence with investigators, helping establish the extent of
damage caused with the help of CCTV footage and eyewitnesses, and providing any other material
and aid whenever needed.

The PTI chairman, meanwhile, insists he has evidence to exculpate the party from the charges it
faces. He should be allowed to present his case, but the party must also cooperate with the
investigation wherever needed.

Finally, the military leadership must remember that the laws governing the armed forces were
meant to maintain discipline and perpetuate control, not punish citizens who may have been
expressing pent-up anger and frustration.

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The ISPR statement indicates that the army still wants “the full support of the people of Pakistan”.
It will find it difficult to achieve this goal if the people are treated as enemies.

Published in Dawn, May 17th, 2023

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LSM decline

THE hefty slump of 25pc in large-scale manufacturing in March — the biggest

monthly drop since the Covid-19 shutdown — from a year ago, confirms that the
decline in the sector, triggered by curbs on the import of raw material, steep
currency depreciation, rising financing cost and, last but not least, contraction in
domestic and international demand, is accelerating. New data from the Pakistan
Bureau of Statistics shows that the LSM industry has contracted 8.1pc in the nine-
month period from July to March — from a robust growth of 11.7pc in the previous
fiscal year — as difficult economic conditions, responsible for factory shutdowns
and production cuts, continue to bite producers more and more with each passing
month. The data is illustrative of a very painful period for industry as workers lose
their jobs in large numbers. Output contraction in the manufacturing industry has
been widespread and reflects a broad-based deceleration in economic activities as
production in 19 sectors out of 20 shrank in the nine-month period.The textile
industry, the country’s largest employer after agriculture and the biggest earner of
export dollars, has slumped by nearly 31pc from a year ago. Pharmaceutical and
automobile industries have declined by over 28pc and 25pc respectively. The same is
the case with the steel and chemical industries.

The decline in the manufacturing industry is not surprising; it was expected once the government
started to discourage domestic demand with a view to protecting the fragile external sector as the
widening trade deficit threatened to wipe out Pakistan’s foreign exchange reserves. Initially,
restrictions were placed for a limited period, but soon the government had to widen the scope of
administrative controls on dollar outflows as reserves kept plunging because of debt repayments
and drying inflows. With the industry contracting consistently, multilateral lenders have revised
down their GDP growth forecasts for the present fiscal year to just 0.4pc to 0.6pc, projecting
unemployment to increase to 7pc as a result of massive industrial lay-offs. Many expect the
economy to post negative growth; their projections are not far-fetched given the present economic
environment and our weak balance-of-payments position. The contraction in LSM is just a
symptom of a disease which cannot be treated without the resumption of funding from the IMF
and other multilateral lenders. The manufacturing industry will not revive unless the balance-of-
payments issue is tackled.

Published in Dawn, May 17th, 2023

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Cricket politics

SADLY, there has been no response so far to Pakistan Cricket Board chief Najam
Sethi’s warning that Pakistan would boycott the World Cup if it is not allowed to
host the Asia Cup as planned. India, which has refused to send its team to Pakistan
for the Asia Cup, has been silent — Mr Sethi says he has not heard back from the
Asian Cricket Council head, Jay Shah, who is also the secretary of the Board of
Cricket Control in India, regarding the matter. The International Cricket Council,
too, has been quiet. The ACC is looking to move the Asia Cup to a neutral venue. The
situation will snowball into a major crisis if not addressed soon. Pakistan has
proposed a ‘hybrid model’ so India can play their matches in the UAE. However,
Bangladesh and Sri Lanka have objections to the model, forcing the PCB to suggest
Pakistan’s hosting the first four matches before the tournament moves to the UAE.
The PCB has said, however, that it expects India to adopt the same approach for
Pakistan when it hosts the World Cup later this year — with Pakistan playing at a
neutral venue. The stand-off threatens to continue; five months before the World
Cup is set to begin, the schedule is yet to be announced. The ICC maintains it will be
revealed once the Indian Premier League season ends.

The ICC’s silence is making matters worse. As the governing body of world cricket, it should step
in. But as its proposed financial model for the next cycle shows, the ICC remains heavily reliant on
India, which is set to receive almost 40pc of ICC revenues from 2024-27, with Pakistan obtaining
just under 6pc. Matches between the rivals generate a huge amount of cash for the ICC. The
council should realise Pakistan’s standing in the game and ensure that the sport does not suffer on
account of India-Pakistan politics.

Published in Dawn, May 17th, 2023

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Creeping military rule?

The writer is an author and journalist.

THE battle lines had long been drawn. Now the fight has reached a critical stage. The
May 9 attacks on military installations in some cities seem to be a turning point.
Enraged PTI supporters directly took on the security establishment. Former prime
minister Imran Khan has lashed out at the army chief, thus crossing the Rubicon.

Now the empire has struck back. Thousands of PTI leaders and supporters have been arrested in a
countrywide crackdown. Some of them could face trial under the Army Act. The creeping shadow
of army rule is becoming more pronounced.

However, the battle between Imran Khan and the security establishment is only one part of the
game of thrones. The other part features the ruling coalition which is up in arms against the top

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judiciary and is vowing to remove the chief justice, who they allege is favouring the former prime
minister. The court’s order to release Khan within a day of his arrest and provide him with
protection from further action has intensified the conflict. Parliament has passed a resolution
calling to file a reference against the top judge.

The ruling coalition has also decided to demonstrate its street power. Thousands of opposition
supporters this week gathered outside the Supreme Court demanding that the chief justice step
down. The protesters may have dispersed peacefully, with no act of violence reported, but it has
brought the battle between the government and the top judiciary to a head.

A trial under the Army Act does not fulfil the requirement of
fairness.

Curiously, the decision to try the perpetrators of the May 9 attacks on military installations was
taken in an extraordinary corps commanders meeting and not by the civilian government. The
cabinet is most likely to rubber-stamp the decision. But it will be hard for the Supreme Court to
validate the move to try civilians under the Army Act and the Official Secrets Act — something that
would legitimise the military’s growing sway. The proposed establishment of military courts and
deployment of the army in major cities would further lengthen the institution’s shadow, which
already eclipses a tottering civilian government.

The use of the Army Act against political activists will have serious implications, and intensify
anti-establishment sentiments. Such actions would further erode the democratic process in the
country. Khan fears that he could be tried for sedition and sentenced to several years in jail. Such
a situation would worsen matters. Similar draconian measures have not succeeded in restoring
order in the past and will not work this time either.

There is no dispute that the rioters should be punished and the law should take its course. But a
trial under the Army Act does not fulfil the requirement of fairness. It is clear that the government
is using the May 9 incident to crack down on the entire party. Apart from the thousands of PTI
workers who have been picked up, almost the entire senior leadership has been detained without
trial. Political victimisation has deepened the polarisation.

While miscreants are brought to justice, it must also be investigated how GHQ in Rawalpindi, the
corps commander’s official residence in Lahore and other sensitive installations were left at the
mercy of few hundred protesters who managed to vandalise such properties with impunity. Under

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normal circumstances, the crowd would not have dared to enter such a high-security zone. Some
unconfirmed reports and videos circulating on social media suggest that the senior military official
and his family might have been inside the residence when the crowd entered it.

It was not a mob of thousands sweeping away the security detail as was witnessed in Sri Lanka last
year. There are many questions that have remained unanswered. There should be a public inquiry
into the incident. Not many will accept the explanation of the military’s media wing that the army
has shown restraint. The spectacle of a crowd, apparently led by a woman, walking through the
gates of GHQ has also raised many questions.

Heads would have rolled had such an incident taken place in any other country. But here, the
government seems to be more interested in using the May 9 events for political point-scoring.

Meanwhile, the statement issued after the latest corps commanders meeting said that a “well-
coordinated arson plan involving the desecration of Shuhada pictures, and monuments, burning
down of historical buildings and vandalism of military installations was executed to malign the
institution and provoke it towards giving an impulsive reaction”.

It may be true that the attacks were well-coordinated and preplanned. But there is no answer to
the question of where the security meant to guard sensitive buildings was when a few hundred
miscreants turned up. All unanswered questions give currency to conspiracy theories. The trial of
the perpetrators of the May 9 violence will not help sweep aside these questions.

The top brass of the army has called for a “national consensus amongst all stakeholders to address
the ongoing political instability as a priority so as to restore public confidence, reinvigorate
economic activity and strengthen the democratic process”.

The worsening clash of institutions and the deepening polarisation in the country — for which the
establishment must also accept responsibility — has weakened the democratic process and made it
more challenging to put it back on track. Public confidence cannot be restored in an atmosphere of
repression and censorship.

There are reports of scores of forced disappearances; even journalists are not being spared. Social
media and internet services have been facing intermittent closure. Such censorship has
encouraged the spread of fake news and misinformation. Political instability makes it harder to
revive the economy. The country is now facing an existentialist threat as the system collapses.

There is indeed a dire need for a national consensus among all stakeholders. But for that, it is
necessary to lower the political temperature and not exacerbate matters by resorting to repression.

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The writer is an author and journalist.

zhussain100@yahoo.com

Twitter: @hidhussain

Published in Dawn, May 17th, 2023

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Elections and complications

The writer is an attorney teaching constitutional law and political philosophy.

AFTER a nail-biting race, the Turkish election appears to be headed towards a run-
off poll, with neither candidate able to secure 50 per cent of the vote. The electoral
rules in the presidential system were put in place by the then Turkish prime
minister (subsequently president) Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who is one of the
candidates. The run-off election will be held on May 28. Until then, the fate of
Turkey hangs in the balance. The country, which has borne the brunt of a major
catastrophe this year, will have to wait at least two more weeks before its future is
known. At the end of the recent round, Erdogan had won 49.5pc of the vote while the
opposition parties had won 44.89pc.

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The Turkish election is just one among many tests for electoral institutions around the world.
With the global economy in a state of flux, the seemingly unstoppable conflict between Russia and
Ukraine, growing hazards of climate change and post Covid economic woes, a large part of the
global population is confronting difficult choices at the ballot box. Even beyond the actual choices
between parties and candidates, the very nature of democratic institutions appears to be in
question.

For instance, in the US, where democracy once seemed unassailable, doubts regarding voting
machines, the allegiances of electoral officials and corruption exposés involving supreme court
judges are all suggesting major problems ahead.

This is because the legitimacy of elections relies on procedures and rules of the voting exercise.
When the voting public believes that the polls are fair, the people selected are seen as the
legitimate and rightful rulers and lawmakers of a country.

If things are so dire in advanced democracies, the disarray

in our neck of the woods is even messier.

One small victory against the power of the losers who are attacking the legitimacy of the polls was
witnessed recently when Dominion — the maker of voting machines — sued the pro-Trump Fox
News for saying that its poll equipment had rigged the 2020 elections by stealing Trump’s votes.
Fox News agreed to pay nearly $8 million in reportedly the largest settlement in a public
defamation case in the US. The ruling in the civil trial agreed with Dominion that the news outlet’s
claims were false. In making them, they were found to have defamed Dominion.

This does not mean that the legitimacy crisis in one of the most advanced democracies in the
world has been resolved. Millions of Trump supporters in the US continue to believe that Trump
was the real winner of the election. This belief is very likely to cause considerable upheaval when
the next electoral cycle begins. Not only is there a risk that Trump supporters will disrupt the
process, there is also a possibility that the near-coup attempt that took place on Jan 6, 2021, will
be renewed if Trump (who is likely to be the Republican nominee once again) loses a second time.
Add to this the recent revelations of how a US supreme court justice allegedly manipulated his
political connections, and you have a near-certain crisis ahead.

If things are so dire in advanced democracies, the disarray in our neck of the woods is even
messier and more complicated. Whenever an orderly transfer of power is replaced by something

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else, even when it is a no-confidence motion undertaken by parliament, the legitimacy of the
system itself is brought into question. Add to this the successive appeals to and decisions taken by
the Supreme Court and another dose of uncertainty is poured into the mix. In recent days, this
uncertainty has been reflected in the arrest of former prime minister Imran Khan by the
government and then his release on the orders of the Supreme Court. Monday’s sit-in (now called
off) by the PDM outside the Supreme Court further reflects the ongoing tension and the fact that
various electoral actors are once again calling into question the legitimacy of whichever branch of
government issues decisions or directives against their interests.

This does not bode well for elections because it suggests that one or another party will be fighting
against one or more institutions if the result at the ballot box does not produce the outcomes they
would like.

Democracy and its main components — elections and the separation of powers — is a delicate
dance that depends on the steps being followed with as much exactitude as possible. If not, the
steps begin to lose their sequence. If the Turkish context is instructive then Pakistanis must also
consider how various competing parties are likely to transform the electoral system itself. Recep
Erdogan after all has remained in power for as long as he has by subverting the rules, silencing
and eliminating critics, cracking down on an independent media and eroding the separation of
powers. Given all of this, one wonders if the Turkish opposition would have won if the health of
Turkish democracy had not been engineered by Erdogan.

As elections draw closer in Pakistan, the pitch of allegations and counter allegations will become
louder and louder. Amid the cacophony, Pakistan’s voting public must assess which party or
leader is most likely to respect the rules so that the legitimacy of the selection remains intact. A
leader must thus possess not only a commitment to the welfare of the country and its people but
also to maintain the sanctity of the system via which he or she is selected.

The writer is an attorney teaching constitutional law and political philosophy.

rafia.zakaria@gmail.com

Published in Dawn, May 17th, 2023

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US-China rivalry

The writer, a former ambassador, is adjunct professor Georgetown University and Visiting Senior Research Fello

PAKISTAN, like much of the world, is worried about how the worsening US-China
rivalry would impact its relations with both countries. There are no clear answers.
While this rivalry may mirror traditional great power competition, there are also
important differences.

Analogies like ‘a new Cold War’ are misleading. The Soviet Union was America’s adversary; China
is a rival. The USSR was economically weak with limited international engagement; China is an
economic powerhouse and fully engaged globally. Countries were aligned or nonaligned during
the Cold War; now they have overlapping and shifting alliances.

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Yet a new world order has not quite emerged. We are in a transitional order that affects and is
being affected not only by the US-China rivalry, but also by Russian assertiveness, Europe’s
struggle for autonomy, and the ambitions of middle powers. No foreign policy taboo is sacred
anymore. It is this scramble to stake an advantageous position in the coming world order that is
causing international turbulence, and anxiety among countries like Pakistan that lack the strength
to shape the global environment but are vulnerable enough to be harmed by it.

What affects Pakistan most is the US-China rivalry. Great Power competition has come a long way
from the non-nuclear weapons world that engaged in global wars without inhibition.

No foreign policy taboo is sacred anymore.

No wonder Washington wants to keep the rivalry with China within bounds. Speaking at the
Stimson Centre recently, the US Am­­bassador to China Nicholas Burns said “we’re ready to talk”
and expressed the hope that China would “meet us halfway”.

Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen and Natio­nal Security Adviser Jake Sullivan in rece­­nt speeches
have insisted that the controls placed on advanced semiconductor exports to China were narrowly
focused, and intended only to address national security concerns. Sullivan said “we are not cutting
off trade”.

The US rivalry with China is essentially two-tiered; one aimed at maintaining America’s
technological and military superiority, the other at ensuring a level playing field in economic
competition. The US does not need to go to war to maintain its technological and military
superiority. It is doing so by denying high technology, especially the type that can limit China’s
capability for AI and military advancement.

The US-China rivalry may be all-encompassing but at its core is economic competition.
Washington is worried by China’s deepening economic inroads globally and its assertive military
posture in the region. China has an edge in geo-economics, America in geopolitics and military
power.

The geopolitical alliances that the US has built, such as AUKUS (Australia-UK-US) and the QUAD
(Australia-Japan-India-US), and the Indo-Pacific Strategy are meant to develop enough military
leverage to ensure that China does not play the US out in economic competition. They are

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basically deterrents as are the tensions over Taiwan that has become a strategic asset for
Washington in any potential military conflict with China.

How will all this impact Pakistan? Our strategic relationship with China is necessary but
insufficient to address our economic and security challenges. We also need the US, an important
bilateral economic partner that has traditionally been a valuable security provider. Washing­ton
has been unreliable but remains rel­evant to Pakistan’s needs given our limited al­­ternatives. Reg­-
ard­less, an ali­en
­ ated America has the capacity to harm Pakistan directly or through India.

Pakistan is relevant to Washington as a partner in regional security as well as a potential spoiler in

geopolitical competition. As long as Pakistan meets Washington’s desired ends without
compromising its own interests it will not come under pressure to choose between the US and
China.

But the situation might change if the economic equation becomes overly weighted in China’s
favour, and the US-China competition comes to a virtual ‘hand to hand fight’. Pakistan —
especially if it is no longer needed by Washington and is also seen as helping China undermine
vital US economic or geopolitical interests, for instance, in any military use of Gwadar by Beijing
— may then be asked by the US, or even by China, to choose.

Pakistan should gain internal strength to enhance its appeal so that neither the US nor China can
afford to lose it. A weak Pakistan would need both and be constantly worried about having to
make a choice one day.

The writer, a former ambassador, is adjunct professor Georgetown University and Visiting
Senior Research Fellow, National University of Singapore.

Published in Dawn, May 17th, 2023

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Three little words

Mahir Ali

UNITY, faith, discipline: it would generally be agreed that Pakistan’s motto has
broadly been more honoured in the breach than the observance throughout the past
75 years. Disunity and indiscipline have long been the norm.

Faith could be seen as an exception; given that it has proliferated in recent decades — but
invariably in the shape of variants that would have bewildered the founding father who coined the
motto. Tellingly, in the Urdu translation, ‘faith’ comes first. And, given M.A. Jinnah’s legal
training, it’s likely that by ‘discipline’, he meant adherence to the rule of law rather than military-
style regimentation, let alone the unison of the mob.

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Anyhow, the events of the past week seemingly transcended previous bounds of disunity and
bouts of indiscipline too. At least as intriguing as the violence against visible military symbols,
particularly in Punjab, was the subdued response. The Baloch have understandably been left
wondering how harsh the response might have been had similar wrath been exhibited in their
province, which has borne the brunt of military misrule at least since the 1960s.

The anti-military sentiment is both unusual and interesting. It is not unique, mind you. By the end
of the 1960s, for instance, the field marshal who had ruled the nation for a decade was the target
of considerable derision and discontent. Popular opinion also held the army in contempt for a
while after the surrender of Dhaka — albeit without any recognition of the allegedly egregious war
crimes.

The ship of state has drifted far from its moorings.

The Ziaul Haq phase of military rule deserves all the ignominy it has attracted, and maybe more.
But what followed the dictator’s demise in the skies was also a travesty, interrupted at the cusp of
the millennium by another bout of military rule, but almost seamlessly renewed thereafter.

The security establishment never let go of its trump cards, and Imran Khan and his PTI was just
another one of those. But it resoundingly backfired on the traditional arbiters of the nation’s fate
after he apparently drifted off the ‘same page’ narrative he had proudly touted as a huge advantage
in enabling his governance.

Now he tends to blame the army in general, and former army chief Gen Qamar Javed Bajwa in
particular, for all of the nation’s woes during his tenure as prime minister. In that case, shouldn’t
he have quit long before the no-confidence vote turfed him out of office? But then, hypocrisy is
hardly a novelty. Nor is he the first prime minister to take that route.

What’s truly galling is the faith (yet another instance of the national motto’s misinterpretation,
perhaps) of his followers that an egoist in some mysterious way represents a break from Pakistan’s
misbegotten past or any kind of answer to its current distress. He’s merely another element of
continuity in a hopeless trajectory that didn’t quite work out for his former masters — or for the
nation.

What he managed to do was to cultivate a personality cult; adherents unthinkingly envisage him
as some kind of messiah whose ascendancy will magically transform a failing state into a miracle.

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The absurdity of that assumption is hard to overemphasise.

Were Imran Khan seriously interested in divesting Pakis­tan of its asphyxiating cloak of
militocracy, he would have been less unwilling to join hands in some way with other political
forces that have also borne the brunt of the establishment’s ascendancy in far more testing
circumstances than his two days in a police rest house where the idea of toilet breaks pushed him
into a paranoid panic.

That won’t prevent him from winning a second term as prime minister, this time without the
establishment’s imprimatur, but what exactly would that achieve?

A century ago, Benito Mussolini capitalised on a March on Rome to form the world’s first fascist
regime. The ideology has resonated ever since. Pakistan is no stranger to fascist tendencies —
mostly, but not exclusively — at the behest of the military.

Elections should not be postponed beyond October, and the PTI or its leader must not be excluded
from them. But anyone looking upon the next elections as some kind of panacea is ultimately
likely to be disappointed. The ship of state has drifted from its moorings, and no one really knows
where it will land. If it’s not to turn into the Titanic, it needs a captain far more capable than
Imran Khan.

mahir.dawn@gmail.com

Published in Dawn, May 17th, 2023

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