Ain Shams Engineering Journal 9 (2018) 3197–3205

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Ain Shams Engineering Journal

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Data driven water quality modeling for drain/canal inflows to Lake

Burullus
Mohamed Shaban a,⇑, Hanan Farag b
a
Drainage Research Institute, National Water Research Center, PO 13621/5, El-Kanater El-Khairia, Qalubia, Egypt
b
National Water Research Center, PO 13621/5, El-Kanater El-Khairia, Qalubia, Egypt

a r t i c l e i n f o a b s t r a c t

Article history: Burullus Lake is located along the Egyptian coast of the Mediterranean. It receives discharges from nine
Received 15 November 2017 estuaries. These discharges comprise different wastes resulting in high vulnerability to rapid eutrophica-
Revised 15 April 2018 tion and pollution.
Accepted 21 May 2018
This indicates the importance of the estuaries water quality in relation with the Lake environment.
Available online 12 November 2018
Therefore, the objective is to model and quantify the effluent impacts of the estuaries on the Lake water
quality.
Keywords:
The analysis started with classifying the Lake 12 monitoring locations using water quality data (WQD)
Lake Burullus
Stepwise regression
collected monthly from Feb. 2010 to Nov. 2012. Then, correlation and regression analyses were carried
Agricultural drainage out to model and quantify lake BOD and TP levels in relation with the estuaries effluents.
Water pollution The Lake can be classified into three clusters that are highly affected with the effluent of the estuaries.
Some of these estuaries can be useful for predicting the Lake water quality using significant models at
0.1% level.
Ó 2018 Ain Shams University. Production and hosting by Elsevier B.V. This is an open access article under
the CC BY-NC-ND license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/).

1. Introduction
Burullus Lake, a RAMSAR site declared as a natural protectorate
since 1998, is located along the Egyptian coast of the Mediter-
ranean at the north central Nile Delta region [1,2].
The Lake is a shallow basin that lies between Long. 30° 300 & 31°
10 E and Lat. 31° 350 N [3]. It has a connection to the Mediterranean
0
Sea through Boughaz El-Burg at the northern side.
The Lake is economically important since it produces around
50% of the Egyptian fish production. It is also seen as a valuable
wetland and a resting area for various migrating birds [4].
Recently, the Lake ecosystem has been degraded due to the exces-
sive drainage system discharges [5]. The Lake receives (3.2  109
m3 y1) agricultural, domestic and industrial drainage waters from
the surrounding farmland, fish farms, and urbanized areas through
eight drains and one fresh-to-brackish water canal. In addition, the
⇑ Corresponding author.
E-mail address: salamashaban@gmx.com (M. Shaban).
Peer review under responsibility of Ain Shams University.
Production and hosting by Elsevier
Mediterranean provides the Lake with saline water [6]. The main
water sources are: Burullus West Drain, Drain 11, Nashart (Drain
9), Drain 8, Drain 7, Tira Drain, khashaa drain, Burullus Drain and
Bermbal canal (Fig. 1).
The Lake connection to the sea is through narrow and nearly
straight outlet (Boughaz El-Burg). Therefore, the wastewater
released from the southern drains is greatly larger than seawater
entering the lagoon [7].
The drains inflows are of serious concern because of its high
levels of contamination by anthropogenic materials [8]. These
materials include heavy fertilizers, oxidized organic matters and
pesticides loads causing serious water quality and eutrophication
problems during the last decade [5,9,10].
Several studies have been conducted over the years to assess the
extent of pollution in the Lake, identify the potential sources of pol-
lution and describe their implication These studies indicated with-
out quantification the impact of the drainage water on the Lake
ecosystem [11,12,4,13,7]. Also, efforts were exerted in developing/
using 1–2 D models for modeling water quality in Lake Burullus
[14–16].
However, these types of modeling require enormous amount of
detailed input data that can be in many cases, very expensive and
difficult to collect [17,18]. These models usually cannot accommo-
date infinite complexity and typically are simplified. In addition,

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.asej.2018.05.002
2090-4479/Ó 2018 Ain Shams University. Production and hosting by Elsevier B.V.
This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/).
3198 M. Shaban, H. Farag / Ain Shams Engineering Journal 9 (2018) 3197–3205
B6
B9
B10
B12
B11
Fig. 1. Water quality monitoring sites in Lake Burullus.
they have difficulty accounting for outliers’ data and excluded vari-
ables. Therefore, data driven techniques such as regression/neural
based modeling have been developed as tradeoffs to numerical
models especially when the available data is limited [17,19].
The main objective of this research is to model and quantify the
effluent impacts of the drain/canal estuaries on the Lake water
quality using regression based formulas. The modeling/quantifica-
tion process will facilitate setting proper management actions
based on what/if scenarios to improve the environmental condi-
tions of the Lake taking future plans into account. These scenarios
should weigh the relative importance of each drain/canal as a pol-
lution source as described by the regression formulas the paper.
2. Materials and methods
2.1. Monitoring program and data collection
Twelve surface water samples were collected from Burullus
Lake during the period from February 2010 to November 2012.
These sites were selected to cover the Lake area and to represent
its environmental conditions (Fig. 1). These twelve sites selection
was based on the following criteria:
 Three samples (1–3) were taken from Boughaz El-Burg zone, in
the east side of the basin representing the Lake zone that is
highly influenced by the sea water, Tira Drain, Khashaa Drain
and Burullus Drain discharge in this zone.
 Five samples (4–8) were collected to represent the conditions at
the middle basin of the Lake. This basin receives enormous
amount of wastewaters from Nashart (Drain 9), Drain 8 and
Drain 7.
 Four samples (9–12) represented the west side of the basin that
get its water from two drains; Burullus West Drain and Drain 11
as well as Bermbal canal.
Since the Lake receives about 3.9 billion cubic meters as an
annual discharges from 8 drains and one irrigation canal [20],
B2 B3
B1
B8
B4
B5
B7
Lake Monitoring Sites
Drain Monitoring Sites
another synchronized nine surface water samples were collected
at the drain/canal estuaries on the Lake during the same period,
Fig. 1 shows a map of Lake Burullus water system indicating the
sampling locations employed for this study.
Field water quality samples were collected in accordance with
methods described in the report ‘‘Manual on data collection, pro-
cessing and presentation - short term routine measurements pro-
gram” [21]. This report was developed to ensure collection of
representative and reproducible water quality samples. In addi-
tion, laboratory analyses were conducted according to the Stan-
dard Methods for the Examination of Water and Wastewater -
19th edition [22].
2.2. Data analysis
To examine the Lake WQD for spatial differences, hierarchical
agglomerative cluster analysis (HACA) was used. HACA is inten-
sively used to recognize groups of samples that have similar water
quality characteristics [23]. It has been extensively employed to
study water-chemistry data for both surface and ground water
[24,25]. For the purpose of this study, the analysis started with per-
forming HACA to classify the Lake 12 monitoring locations using
the medians of the WQD (DO (mg/l), BOD (mg/l), COD (mg/l),
Chl-a (Micr. g/l), N-NH4 (mg/l), N-NO2 (mg/l), N-NO3 (mg/l), TN
(mg/l) and TP (mg/l)) collected during the period from February
2010 to November 2012.
In performing the HACA, the normality status of the data was
first investigated using Kolmogorov-Smirnov and Shapiro-Wilk
tests. Then clustering process developed one cluster for each sam-
ple and then pairs of clusters were successively merged using the
Euclidean distance as a similarity measure.
In order to investigate the relationship between the indepen-
dent (the drain/canal outfalls on the Lake) and dependent (Burullus
Lake) variables correlation analysis were employed. The analyses
were carried out using measurements of selected water quality
parameters; BOD (mg/l) and TP (mg/l). These biological and agri-
cultural indicators were selected based on the previous knowledge
 M. Shaban, H. Farag / Ain Shams Engineering Journal 9 (2018) 3197–3205 3199

concerning the main pollution sources to the lake since industrial
discharges do not exceed 0.12% from the total discharges to the
lake [26].
Finally, stepwise multiple regression analyses were carried out
to model and quantify the BOD (mg/l) and TP (mg/l) levels for each
Lake cluster in relation with the effluent impact of the drain/canal
estuaries.
For each cluster, the data for all drains that significantly corre-
late with those collected from the monitoring locations in the
examined Lake cluster were included in sequence into the model.
This inclusion is then tested. If the included data set contributes
significantly (p < 0:01) to improve the information obtained by
the model, then it was kept. Otherwise, this data set was excluded.
As a result, a minimum number of predictors was kept in the final
model [27].
This way, the analysis attempts to formulate the relationships
between the model parameters and thereby offer a reliable pre-
dicting/forecasting mechanism for the Lake water quality [28,29].
The previous statistical analyses (carried out using SPSS version
21) were used to interpret the complex datasets to obtain an
improved understanding of lake water quality.
The clustering process had a relatively high structure since the
agglomerative Coefficient (AC) for the examined data was calcu-
lated as, 0.903 (close to 1.0) indicating a ‘‘very clear clustering
structure” [31].
3.1.1. Cluster groups
In Fig. 2, there are three major horizontal lines identifying three
main water quality clusters labeled as Cluster I, Cluster II, and
Cluster III. Their linkage Euclidean distances are clearly large.
Straightforward assessment of the three clusters indicated that
differences in site groups are attributable to water-quality con-
stituents. Fig. 3 shows the variation of these constituents along
the Lake sites. Thorough investigation of Fig. 3 indicates the
following:
 The monitoring sites in Cluster I (B6, B7, B1 and B4) had rela-
tively moderate water quality conditions. However, they were

3. Results and discussions

3.1. Cluster analysis

The use of HACA in this research was to identify relatively

homogeneous groups of variables (monitoring sites in Lake
Burullus) through Dendrogram based on the examined WQPs. This
Dendrogram is then used as a simple graphical presentation for the
sites behaviors [30,31].
HACA generated a Dendogram as shown in Fig. 2 grouping 12
monitoring sites into three clusters. Cluster I comprised sites in
the internal zone in the south (B6, B7, B1 and B4) and the Cluster
II included sites in the coastal zone near to the Sea (B2, B3, B5, B8,
B9, B10 and B12), while Cluster III included one location (B11) in
the south west Zone.
Fig. 2 shows the Dendrogram where monitoring sites are repre-
sented as parallel horizontal lines. Vertical lines merge the site sets
into clusters that have similar water quality levels. The similarity/
dissimilarity between these clusters is assessed using the Eucli-
dean distance represented on the x-axis.

Cluster I

Cluster II

Cluster III

Fig. 2. Dendrogram from HACA of 12 water quality monitoring sites from Lake
Burullus. Fig. 3. Water quality variation along site clusters in Lake Burullus.
3200 M. Shaban, H. Farag / Ain Shams Engineering Journal 9 (2018) 3197–3205

more near to Cluster III than Cluster II. They recorded moderate
concentrations for the parameters: DO, BOD, COD, N-NO2, N-
NH4 and N-NO3. Highest Chl-a, TP and TN levels were also found
in this cluster. This cluster zone is located in the south of the
Lake near to the inland and relatively far from the effect of
sea water and more affected by the drainage water inflow. In
addition to the excess amount of nutrients received due to drai-
nage fish farms adjacent to the lake border.
 The monitoring sites in Cluster II (B2, B3, B5, B8, B9, B10 and
B12) had relatively better water quality conditions. They
recorded lowest concentrations for the parameters: TP, TN,
BOD, COD, N-NO2, N-NH4 and N-NO3. Highest DO levels were
also found in this cluster. Chl-a was found to be in a moderate
level. This quality conditions may be attributable to the fact that
this cluster zone is located in the north of the Lake and rela-
tively near to Boughaz El-Burg where sea water has relatively
higher influences.
 The monitoring site in Cluster III (B11) seemed to have the
worst water quality conditions. It recorded highest concentra-
tions for the parameters: BOD, COD, N-NO2, N-NH4 and N-
NO3. Lowest Chl-a level was found in this cluster. TP and TN
were found to be in moderate levels. This cluster zone has the
largest distance from the influence of the sea water and more
affected by the drainage water inflow from untreated wastes
from villages distributed along drain no.11. These villages do
not have proper sanitation facilities representing 86% of Moto-
bas Markaz and 55% of Foa Markaz from total population den-
sity at these two Marksz. In addition, Cluster III also receives
excessive nutrients from many fish farms adjacent to the south
western part of the lake.
3.2. Correlation analysis
Correlation analyses were carried out using measurements of
selected water quality parameters; BOD (mg/l) and TP (mg/l). The
analyses were carried out between the independent (monitoring
sites at drain/canal outfalls) and dependent (monitoring sites at
Burullus Lake) variables. Correlation matrices (for BOD and TP)
were constructed and the significance is considered at the levels
of 0.01 and 0.05 (2- tailed analysis). The analysis results (Tables
1 and 2) revealed the followings:
& For the monitoring sites in Cluster I (B6, B7, B1 and B4), it was
found that the BOD levels were significantly correlated with the
BOD levels of five drains namely; Nashart (Drain 9), Drain 7, Tira
Drain, Khashaa Drain and Burullus Drain. Where the TP levels
were significantly correlated with the TP levels of all drain/canal
estuaries.
& For the monitoring sites in Cluster II (B2, B3, B5, B8, B9, B10 and
B12), the BOD levels were significantly correlated with the BOD
levels for four drains namely; Nashart (Drain 9), Drain 7, Tira
Drain and Burullus Drain. Where the TP levels were significantly
correlated with the TP levels of all drain/canal estuaries except
Burullus Drain.
& For the monitoring sites in Cluster III (B11), it was found that
the BOD levels were significantly correlated with the BOD levels
for four drains and one fresh-to-brackish water canal namely;
Burullus West Drain, Drain 11, Tira Drain, Burullus Drain and
Bermbal Canal. Where the TP levels were significantly corre-
lated with three drains namely; Burullus West Drain, Drain 11
and Nashart (Drain 9)
3.3. Stepwise regression analysis
3.3.1. Modeling biological oxygen demand (BOD) levels
To find out the best predictor of mean BOD level for each site
cluster in Lake Burullus, a series of stepwise multiple linear regres-
sions models was used. The main objective was to investigate the
relationship between the independent variables (BOD levels for the
drain/canal estuaries) and a dependent variable (mean BOD level
for a certain site cluster) [32].
Before interpreting the results, standard assumptions of linear
regressions were tested. An assessment of the regression normal
p-p and scatter plots showed that the relationship between the

Table 1
Correlation matrix for BOD levels measured at the independent (drain/canal estuaries) and dependent (Burullus Lake) sites.

B1 B2 B3 B4 B5 B6 B7 B8 B9 B10 B11 B12

Burullus West 0.172 0.062 0.089 0.022 0.388 0.209 0.490 0.412 0.241 0.422 0.799** 0.370
Bermbal Canal 0.150 0.059 0.187 0.046 0.194 0.094 0.007 0.162 0.250 0.224 0.624* 0.211
Drain 11 0.420 0.210 0.002 0.150 0.453 0.197 0.363 0.435 0.238 0.256 0.810** 0.564
Nashart (Drain 9) 0.160 0.057 0.486 0.510 0.812** 0.577* 0.674* 0.708** 0.730** 0.611* 0.506 0.627*
Drain 8 0.007 0.269 0.225 0.358 0.454 0.258 0.491 0.497 0.654* 0.459 0.515 0.515
Drain 7 0.405 0.154 0.640* 0.641* 0.716** 0.516 0.512 0.632* 0.812** 0.588* 0.295 0.371
Tira Drain 0.268 0.146 0.571 0.575 0.759** 0.462 0.636* 0.585* 0.679* 0.610* 0.627* 0.645*
Khashaa Drain 0.376 0.231 0.473 0.332 0.275 0.634* 0.101 0.038 0.159 0.195 0.013 0.135
Burullus Drain 0.366 0.218 0.326 0.603* 0.452 0.014 0.846** 0.511 0.508 0.665** 0.704* 0.348
*
Correlation is significant at the 0.05 level (2-tailed).
**
Correlation is significant at the 0.01 level (2-tailed).

Table 2
Correlation matrix for TP levels measured at the independent (drain/canal estuaries) and dependent (Burullus Lake) sites.

B1 B2 B3 B4 B5 B6 B7 B8 B9 B10 B11 B12

Burullus West 0.780** 0.111 0.598* 0.236 0.782** 0.739** 0.786** 0.780** 0.823** 0.806** 0.673* 0.710**
Bermbal Canal 0.643* 0.071 0.249 0.154 0.569 0.541 0.469 0.537 0.547 0.794** 0.484 0.686*
Drain 11 0.767** 0.268 0.569 0.154 0.548 0.505 0.760** 0.564 0.701* 0.772** 0.712** 0.710**
Nashart (Drain 9) 0.528 0.127 0.350 0.477 0.646* 0.807** 0.646* 0.665* 0.729** 0.633* 0.630* 0.586*
Drain 8 0.309 0.053 0.292 0.326 0.738** 0.853** 0.546 0.652* 0.618* 0.580* 0.389 0.391
Drain 7 0.651* 0.128 0.461 0.164 0.682* 0.751** 0.582* 0.667* 0.638* 0.613* 0.544 0.676*
Tira Drain 0.502 0.268 0.718** 0.528 0.484 0.547 0.730** 0.521 0.610* 0.292 0.544 0.352
Khashaa Drain 0.414 0.102 0.304 0.216 0.596* 0.605* 0.385 0.458 0.349 0.494 0.232 0.433
Burullus Drain 0.303 0.326 0.378 0.184 0.326 0.422 0.630* 0.377 0.452 0.372 0.435 0.257
*
Correlation is significant at the 0.05 level (2-tailed).
**
Correlation is significant at the 0.01 level (2-tailed).
 M. Shaban, H. Farag / Ain Shams Engineering Journal 9 (2018) 3197–3205 3201

dependent variable (to be predicted) and the predictors is linear
and the residuals had the same variance (homoscedasticity)
(Fig. 4). The following sections summarize the obtained results
for each site cluster.
3.3.1.1. Site Cluster I. The BOD levels for the drain outfall Nashart
(Drain 9), Drain 7, Tira Drain, Khashaa Drain and Burullus Drain
as independent variables were introduced to SPSS 21 to model
the mean BOD levels at Site Cluster I (dependent variable).
Each set of drain BOD data (independent) was included in
sequence into the model that is then evaluated. If the included data
set contributes to improve the information obtained by the model,
then it was kept. Otherwise, this data set was excluded. As a result,
a minimum number of predictors was kept in the final model.
Thorough examination of the output showed that only BOD
levels at Drain 7 and Khashaa Drain contribute substantially to
the model’s ability to predict the outcome. These drains receive
substantial discharges from fish farms in addition to untreated/-
partially treated domestic wastewater from villages distributed
along southern shore of the lake that lead to receiving highly nutri-
ent pollutants.
Table 3 shows that there are two models. Model 1 refers to the
first stage in the stepwise regression hierarchy when only BOD
level at Drain 7 was used as a predictor. Model 2 refers to final
stage when BOD levels at Drain 7 and Khashaa Drain predictors
were used. The R2 value for the two variable model is 0.717, which
means that the two independent variables collectively explain
71.7% of the variance in the dependent variable. Consequently,
the relationship can be described as ‘‘strong”. Table 2 also indicates

Normal p-p plot of regression standardized residuals

Scatter plot (regression standardized predicted values against observed values)

Fig. 4. Checking regression assumptions (BOD data example).
3202 M. Shaban, H. Farag / Ain Shams Engineering Journal 9 (2018) 3197–3205

Table 3
Regression model summary for BOD levels at Site Cluster I.

Model summaryc
Model R R Square Adjusted R Square Std. Error of the Estimate Change Statistics Durbin-Watson
R Square Change F Change df1 df2 Sig. F Change
1 0.687a 0.472 0.419 5.76981 0.472 8.939 1 10 0.014
2 0.847b 0.717 0.684 4.45099 0.245 7.804 1 9 0.021 1.719
a
Predictors: (Constant), Drain 7.
b
Predictors: (Constant), Drain 7, Khashaa Drain.
c
Dependent Variable: BOD levels at Site Cluster I.

that the increase in predictive power or accuracy at each model
step was a statistically significant addition. The ‘‘Sig. F
Change = 0.02100 provides the probability that the increase in R2
is greater than 0. In addition, the value of Durbin-Waston statistic
was 1.719 that is near to 2, indicating insignificant serial
correlation.
Table 4 shows the estimates of the model coefficients. The Beta
coefficient among the parameters calibrated by stepwise regres-
sions analysis indicates that BOD levels at Drain 7 make the stron-
gest unique contribution in Mean BOD levels for Site Cluster I
variation (0.514). The Beta value for BOD levels at Khashaa Drain
(0.233) was the second contributor. The very low P-values for the
intercept and slope coefficients indicate they are strongly
significant.
Table 4 includes two measures to evaluate collinearity. The first
is the Tolerance that varies from 0 to 1.0. Values that are near to
zero indicate a strong evidence to collinearity problem. In this case,
the number of predictors should be reduced by excluding one or
more predictors.
The second measure (Variance Inflation Factor (VIF)) is simply
the reciprocal of the Tolerance. However, Model 2 results show
that all predictors do not correlate together.
The ANOVA table (Table 5) shows that the F-statistics
(F = 11.412) was large and the corresponding p value is highly sig-
nificant (p = 0.003 < 0.01). This indicates that, the slope of the
model does not equal to zero, confirming that the relationship
between the predictors is linear.
At this stage, Model 2 can be written as:
BOD levels at Site Cluster I ¼ 0:514ðBOD at Drain 7Þ
þ 0:233 ðBOD at Drain KhashaaÞ
þ 1:91
ð1Þ
Using Eq. (1), the mean value of the BOD levels at Site Cluster I
can be estimated. The estimated mean will deviate from the field
measurements by an amount usually called residuals. The pre-
dicted BOD levels at Site Cluster I using the original measurement
of BOD levels at Drain 7 and Khashaa Drain are presented in Fig. 5a.
The adjusted R2 value is commonly employed to check whether
the application of the models are not limited to the measured data
set and can be used beyond.
For Model 2, R2 = 0.717 and the adjusted R2 = 0.684. These val-
ues are very close that is a good sign for possible generalizability.
However, model estimates within the range of the original data
set (prediction) is more trustful compared to those outside that
(extrapolation).
3.3.1.2. Site Cluster II. The BOD levels for the drain estuaries Nashart
(Drain 9), Drain 7, Tira Drain and Burullus Drain as independent
variables were considered to model the mean BOD levels at Site
Cluster II (dependent variable). Similar analysis steps were carried
out for the case of Site Cluster II. The results indicated that the tol-
erance values for the excluded variables varied between 0.407 and

Table 4
Estimates of coefficients of the multiple linear model of BOD levels at Site Cluster I.

Model Unstandardized Standardized Coefficients t Sig. Collinearity Statistics

Coefficients
B Std. Error Beta Tolerance VIF
1 (Constant) 6.076 3.294 1.845 0.095
Drain 7 0.518 0.173 0.687 2.990 0.014 1.000 1.000
2 (Constant) 1.910 2.946 0.648 0.033
Drain 7 0.514 0.134 0.682 3.848 0.004 0.9999 1.0001
Khashaa 0.233 0.083 0.495 2.794 0.021 0.9999 1.0001

Table 5
ANOVA table for the multiple linear model of BOD levels at Site Cluster I. ANOVA.a

Model Sum of squares df Mean Square F Sig.

1 Regression 297.581 1 297.581 8.939 0.014b
Residual 332.908 10 33.291
Total 630.488 11
2 Regression 452.187 2 226.093 11.412 0.003c
Residual 178.301 9 19.811
Total 630.488 11
a
Dependent Variable: BOD levels for Site Cluster I.
b
Predictors: (Constant), BOD levels at Drain 7.
c
Predictors: (Constant), BOD levels at Drain 7 and Khashaa Drain.
 M. Shaban, H. Farag / Ain Shams Engineering Journal 9 (2018) 3197–3205
Fig. 5. Measured and predicted values for the mean BOD levels at Site Cluster I, II
and III.
0.670, so these independent variables depend linearly on each
other. Therefore, one variable model is considered. Only BOD levels
at Tira Drain contribute substantially to the model’s ability to pre-
dict the mean BOD levels at Site Cluster II. The R2 value for the one
variable model is 0.514, which means that the independent vari-
able explains 51.4% of the variance in the dependent variable. Con-
sequently, the relationship can be described as ‘‘moderate”. In
addition, the value of Durbin-Waston statistic was 2.28, that is
near to 2, indicating no serial correlation.
The very low P-values for the intercept and slope coefficients
(0.027 and 0.009 respectively) indicate they are strongly signifi-
cant. The F-statistics (F = 10.588) was large and the p value is
highly significant (p = 0.009 < 0.01). This indicates that, the slope
of the model does not equal to zero and the relationship between
the predictors is linear.
Table 6
Multiple linear models of TP levels at Lake Site Clusters.
Site Groups TP Models
Site Cluster I Mean TP = 0.880 (TP for Burullus West Drain) + 232.229
Site Cluster II Mean TP = 0.456 (TP for Burullus West Drain) + 72.230
Site Cluster III Mean TP = 0.86748 (TP for Drain 11) + 5.8967
3203
Now, regression model for
BOD levels at Site Cluster II ¼ 0:482 ðBOD at Tira DrainÞ
þ 3:132 ð2Þ
Using Eq. (2), the mean BOD levels at Site Cluster II can be esti-
mated. The predicted values of mean BOD levels at Site Cluster II
using the original measurement of BOD levels at Tira Drain are pre-
sented in Fig. 5b.
3.3.1.3. Site Cluster III. The BOD levels for the drain estuaries Burul-
lus West Drain, Drain 11, Tira Drain, Burullus Drain and Bermbal
Canal as independent variables were considered in BOD modeling
process for Site Cluster III (dependent variable). Similar analysis
steps were carried out as for the previous two clusters. The analysis
results showed that only BOD levels at Burullus Drain and Drain 11
contribute substantially to the model’s ability to predict the BOD
levels at Site Cluster III. The R2 value for the two variable model
is 0.792, which means that the independent variable explains
79.2% of the variance in the dependent variable. Consequently,
the relationship can be described as ‘‘strong”. In addition, the value
of Durbin-Waston statistic was 2.34, that is near to 2, indicating no
serial correlation.
The very low P-values for the intercept and slope coefficients
(0.026, 0.006 and 0.039 respectively) indicate they are strongly sig-
nificant. The F-statistics (F = 17.150) was large and the p value is
highly significant (p = 0.001 < 0.01). This indicates that, the slope
of the model does not equal to zero and the relationship between
the predictors is linear.
The regression model for
BOD levels at Site Cluster III ¼ 0:803 ðBOD at Burullus DrainÞ
þ 0:506 ðBOD at Drain 11Þ
 1:633
ð3Þ
Using Eq. (3), the value of BOD levels at Site Cluster III can be
estimated. The predicted values of mean BOD levels at Site Cluster
III using the original measurement of BOD levels at Burullus Drain
and Drain 11 are presented in Fig. 5-c.
3.3.2. Modeling total phosphorus (TP) levels
The same procedure was used to find out the best predictor/s of
mean TP levels for each site cluster in Lake Burullus. Table 6 sum-
marizes the modeling results indicating that only TP levels at
Burullus West Drain contribute substantially to the models ability
to predict the mean TP levels at Site Clusters I and II. The R2 values
for the one variable models were 0.700 and 0.899 respectively. This
means that independent variable (TP levels at Burullus West Drain)
explains 70.0% and 89.9% of the variance in the dependent
variables (Mean TP levels at Site Clusters I and II respectively).
Consequently, the relationship can be described as ‘‘strong”. In
addition, the values of Durbin-Waston statistics were 1.90 and
2.0 for Site Clusters I and II respectively that are very near or equal
to 2, indicating no serial correlation.
For Site Cluster III, only TP levels at Drain 11 contribute sub-
stantially to the model ability to predict the mean TP levels. The
R2 and Durbin-Waston statistics were 0.507 and 1.87 indicating
R2 Adjusted R2 Sig. F Change Durbin-Waston Statistic
0.700 0.670 0.001 1.871
0.899 0.889 0.000 2.013
0.507 0.457 0.009 1.878
3204 M. Shaban, H. Farag / Ain Shams Engineering Journal 9 (2018) 3197–3205

‘‘moderate” relationship and no serial correlation. The correspond-
ing p values for the three models were highly significant indicating
that the slope of the developed models is not equal to zero and
confirming that there are statistically significant relationships.
4. Summary and conclusions
In this paper, the Lake Burullus was classified into three cluster
zones (I, II and III) based on its water quality characteristics.
Cluster I is located in the south of the Lake near to the inland and
relatively far from the effect of sea water and more affected by the
drainage water inflow. In addition, it receives significant amount of
nutrients drained from excessive fish farming adjacent to the Lake
border in the south. The monitoring sites in Cluster I had relatively
moderate concentrations for the parameters: DO, BOD, COD, N-
NO2, N-NH4 and N-NO3. Highest Chl-a, TP and TN levels were also
found. The BOD levels were mainly attributed to inflows from five
drains namely; Nashart (Drain 9), Drain 7, Tira Drain, Khashaa Drain
and Burullus Drain. However, only Drain 7 and Khashaa Drain collec-
tively explain 71.7% of the variance in the mean BOD levels at Site
Cluster I. Similarly, the TP levels were attributed to inflows from
all the drain/canal estuaries but only Burullus West Drain explains
70.0% of the variance in the mean TP levels at Site Cluster I.
Cluster II is located in the upper northern part near to the sea
opening (El-Boghaz). It has relatively better water quality conditions
due to the Lake water exchange with the Mediterranean. The moni-
toring sites in Cluster II recorded lowest concentrations for the
parameters: TP, TN, BOD, COD, N-NO2, N-NH4 and N-NO3. Highest
DO levels were also found in this cluster. Chl-a was found to be in
a moderate level. In this cluster, the BOD levels were mainly attrib-
uted to inflows from four drains namely; Nashart (Drain 9), Drain 7,
Tira Drain and Burullus Drain. However, Only Tira Drain can explain
51.4% of the variance in the mean BOD levels at Site Cluster II. TP
levels were attributed to inflows from all the drain/canal estuaries
except Burullus Drain but only Burullus West Drain explains 89.9%
of the variance in the mean TP levels at Site Cluster II.
Cluster III is located in the southwest corner of the Lake at the
largest distance from the connection to the Mediterranean (Boug-
haz). It has the worst water quality conditions in the Lake and is
mainly affected by the drainage water inflow from untreated wastes
from villages that have improper sanitation facilities distributed
along Drain no.11. This zone also receives excessive nutrients from
many fish farms adjacent to the south western part of the Lake. It
recorded highest concentrations for the parameters: BOD, COD, N-
NO2, N-NH4 and N-NO3. Lowest Chl-a levels were found in this clus-
ter. TP and TN were found to be in moderate levels. In this cluster,
the BOD levels were mainly attributed to inflows from four drains
and one fresh-to-brackish water canal namely; Burullus West Drain,
Drain 11, Tira Drain, Burullus Drain and Bermbal Canal. However,
Only Burullus Drain and Drain 11 collectively explain 79.2% of the
variance in the mean BOD levels at Site Cluster III. TP levels were
attributed to inflows from three drains namely; Burullus West Drain,
Drain 11 and Nashart (Drain 9) but only Drain 11 explains 50.7% of
the variance in the mean TP levels at Site Cluster III.
The regression results for the three clusters showed good agree-
ments with the measured data with relatively acceptable ranges of
error (Figs. 5 and 6). The statistical measures, such as R2, Adjusted
R2 and F statistics for all developed models proved their validity.
These measures are commonly used as indicators of generalizabil-
ity. Table 7 presents the statistical model validity limits for BOD
and TP levels that can be used for predictions within the range of
the measured regressors (interpolation).

5. Conclusions and recommendations

Fig. 6. Measured and predicted values for the mean TP levels at Site Cluster I, II
and III. Modern irrigation, fish farming and large settlements around
Lake Burullus has brought the area under intensive environmental

Table 7
Statistical limits for BOD and TP models validity.

Drain 7 Khashaa Drain Tira Drain Burullus Drain Drain 11

BOD (mg/l)
Minimum 3.60 3.00 2.80 1.46 1.94
Maximum 30.33 63.18 27.33 25.50 40.45
TP (Micro g/l)
Burullus West Drain Drain 11
Minimum 205.94 314.20
Maximum 872.10 1081.20
 M. Shaban, H. Farag / Ain Shams Engineering Journal 9 (2018) 3197–3205
stress. Substantial discharges carrying high concentrations of fer-
tilizer and pesticide enter the southern side of the lake through a
number of drains leading to serious eutrophication and pollution.
Therefore, sustainable utilization of the Lake requires research
and stakeholders integration in the decision making process. This
would ensure implementation of decisions that are based on scien-
tific results and considers all stakeholders interests.
In this research, previous experiences and measurements of
Lake Burullus WQD were employed to yield empirical relationships
(models) between canal/drain inflows (inputs) and lake water
quality (output). Comparing the predicted and measured data con-
firmed the accuracy of the developed models supporting that they
are useful tools to predict water quality in the Lake.
These models can be used in conjunction with water quality
measurements to assess pollution control measures that are/will
be carried out to improve the lake environmental conditions. These
measures may comprise improving agricultural practices, using
environmental friendly fish species and providing adequate sanita-
tion services. Improved agricultural practices with specific
emphasis on reducing fertilizers and pesticides can be of immense
contribution in improving lake water quality. The use of fish spe-
cies that have less negative environmental impacts can minimize
re-suspension and consequent release of adsorbed nutrients to
the Lake water. In addition, providing adequate sanitation ser-
vices to the residents in the surrounding urban/rural districts will
significantly enhance the water quality of irrigation and drainage
canals in the region. This can be achieved by setting priority action
plan taking into account the relative importance of each drain/-
canal as a pollution source as described by the regression based
formulas obtained in the paper. This will be directly reflected in
the improvement of Lake water quality and, ultimately the
Mediterranean Sea, as well as further sustaining fish farming in
Lake Burullus.
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Associate Prof. Mohamed Shaban M. Abusalama He
has a working experience over 20 year in the field of
environmental and water quality management. I gained
this experience from my work in the National Water
Research Center, Egypt where I joined regional and
international research projects. I also joined the
research team of the University of Lunenburg, Germany
(Leuphana) in environmental research.
Associate Prof. Hanan Farag She is an expert in envi-
ronmental information systems design and analysis. She
has a good experience in water quality and GIS envi-
ronmental applications. She worked in ITC, University of
Twente for one year as research staff member, water
resources department during this period she had a good
knowledge in remote sensing applications in ecological
and lakes water quality issues. Her overall experience is
focusing on geographic information systems environ-
mental applications and water quality of water resour-
ces.