Continuity and Change in India's Party System

Author(s): Rajni Kothari

Source: Asian Survey , Nov., 1970, Vol. 10, No. 11, Elections and Party Politics in India:
A Symposium (Nov., 1970), pp. 937-948
Published by: University of California Press

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CONTINUITY AND

CHANGE IN INDIA'S

PARTY SYSTEM

/ Raini Kothari

In their preoccupation with fitting the fluidities of modern times into neat
categories and typologies of some all-encompassing model, political scien-
tists of late seem to have become increasingly insensitive to the task of
making meaning out of the fluidities themselves. Such a neglect of the
evolving empirical process, in the craze for "system-building," is turning
political science into analytical history -and much inferior than what his-
torians can make of history. The chief casualties are two: coming to grips
analytically with the present and the emerging future, and seeking to shape
normatively the same continuum. And yet nothing could be more urgent on
the agenda of research than to combine these two perspectives.
While this observation is applicable to studies of most countries, it is
particularly applicable in the study of developing countries. Using such
perspectives to explore the politics of developing countries may, in turn,
contribute to the analysis of basic political processes in already established
polities-perhaps a useful alternative to the spate of somewhat sterile and
static models and categories that have been advanced for the study of politi-
cal universes, developed and developing alike.
The task is as difficult as it is important. The continuation of past ex-
planations pose in many instances seemingly intractable problems coming
to grips with the 'future. New permutations may occur to which prevailing
conceptions have not been addressed; there may be new thresholds and
breakthroughs; there may be "accidents." Projections, given conceptual and
data bias, are subject to progressive magnification of error in a way that "his-
torical" studies are not. Uncertainty in projective models, as in personal
choice, appears to increase in almost geometric progression. The political
process involves both preservation and change. There are in political life
basic continuities despite continuous change. In a society such as India,
however, continuous changes as they cross certain thresholds are trans-
formed: quantitative change becomes qualitative transformation. The ex-
ploration of such processes and their delineation into the future are impor-
tant theoretical and practical tasks.
Supplementing historical by futuristic analysis is thus very much on the
cards. Men must make choices in politics as they must in their private lives.

937

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 938 CONTINUITY AND CHANGE

Such choices are necessarily made under conditions of uncertainty. It is

important, however, that the terrain olf certainty and uncertainty be mapped
as accurately as possible. In an age where politics has assumed a primacy
in human affairs, the intuition of the politician needs to be buttressed by
theoretical perspectives and prognostications firmly based in empirical ob-
servations. It is here that the interests of statecraft and scholarship meet.
The traditional wisdom of the 'former may be usefully complemented by the
analyses of the latter. The problematics of the public man may make more
germane the explorations of the scholar. It is important that the perspectives
of the two be joined.

MODELS OF THE INDIAN POLITY

Analyses of Indian politics during the past decade were cast in terms of
an implicit model, although this model was not always informed by sys-
tematic data. The general perspective included three dimensions. First, it
entailed the observation that traditional institutions such as caste and reli-
gion were undergoing 'a process of politicization.1 This was an important
contrast to the common conception that democratic institutions in India
were being conditioned and shaped in some unilateral fashion by traditional
institutions. Second, there was the observation that Indian politics operated
at different levels; that it was characterized by coexisting political systems
consisting of a relatively autonomous and cohesive center with distinct
and quasibautonomous political arenas at lower levels.2 These levels were
connected by a complex network of intermediaries. The third feature to be
emphasized was ithe party system itself-the ordering mechanism which both
contributed to the larger process of politicization and gave coherence to an
otherwise fragmented and unaggregated polity. This was the system of one-
party dominance which both operated in an open competitive framework
and generated internal processes of factional competition.3 Such dominance
became functional through (1) continuous interplay between factions within
the dominant party and the parties outside, the 'former providing a regula-
tory thermostat which the latter could influence; and (2) an "agglomera-
tion" of diverse social groups through bargaining and coalition-making at
various levels within the dominant party rather than an "aggregation" of

'See the various studies reported in Rajni Kothari (ed.), Caste in Indian Politics,
New Delhi: Orient Longmans Ltd., 1970. See also Lloyd I. Rudolph and Susanne Hoeber
Rudolph, The Modernity of Tradition: Political Development in India, Chicago: Uni-
versity of Chicago Press, 1967.
2For an extensive discussion of this theme see my Politics in India, New Delhi: Orient
Longmans Ltd. and Boston: Little Brown & Co., 1970. For an earlier statement of the
ground forces at work, see F. G. Bailey, Politics and Social Change: Orissa in 1959,
Berkeley and Los Angeles: University of California Press, 1963.
'Rajni Kothari, "The Congress 'System' in India," Asian Survey, 4 (December 1964),
1161-73; Gopal Krishna, "One Party Dominance: Development and Trends," Perspec-
tives, Supplement to the Indian Journal of Public Administration, 12 (January-March
1966); and Ramashray Roy, "Dynamics of One-Party Dominance in an Indian State,"
Asian Survey, 8 (July 1968), 553-75.

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 RAJNI KOTHARI 939

interests according to the Western model. The political process through

which such a fluid and continuously shifting structure of political organiza-
tion became institutionalized was one of consens-us-making between com-
peting groups rather than 'a system of 'alternating" parties representing
rival interests and offering alternative "choices" to the electorate. It was
by the emphasis on these features-politicization, non-aggregation, and
competitive dominance-that some of us sought to explain both the stability
of the Indian system and its adaptiveness.
Processes latent until the 1960's, however, have lately become manifest
and call for a revision of this earlier model. A new perspective is required
which can account for those processes which suggest the development of
important shifts in the nature and quality of Indian politics. While the
central role of the Congress in maintaining and restructuring political con-
sensus still persists, there are more basic pressures at work. The socio-eco-
nomic and demographic profile of the polity is changing rather fast. Politici-
zation is acquiring new meanings land content. The mobilization of new
recruits and groups into the political process-not always through the
electoral process-has given rise to the development of new and more dif-
ferentiated identities and patterns of political cleavage. The political in-
volvement of the electorate through multiple channels of association and
dissociation has involved the expectation of freer political access all around
and a greater insistence on governmental performance. Intermediaries and
vote-hanks, while of continuing importance, have become increasingly cir-
cumvented as citizens search for more effective participation in the political
market place and develop 'an ability to evaluate and make choices.4 As all
this is under way, the self-contained paradigm of a dominant party model
has started to give way to a more differentiated structure of party competi-
tion that is likely to increasingly provide an arena of confrontation before
a new basis for consensus is evolved. Along each of these dimensions there
is evidence of a "threshold" transformation of linear development- a quali-
tative change of the type we noted above. The purpose of this paper is to
explore in brief 'and preliminary fashion the dimensions of this change
through an analysis of the 1967 elections.5

4See D. L. Sheth, "Political Development of Indian Electorate," Economic and Politi-

cal Weekly, 5 (January 1970), 1-16.
'Let us say right away that analysis based on electoral data alone has important
limitations in guaging the meaning of basic transformations in political structure. There
is need to engage in more fundamental structural and normative analysis. What is at-
tempted here is only by way of an exploration of the relevant themes on the basis of
what data are available. On the other hand, in planning the 1967 election study we did
bear in mind some of the larger perspectives mentioned in this article. (The study re-
ported here was conducted under the auspices of the Centre for the Study of Develop-
ing Societies and directed by Bashiruddin Ahmed, Samuel J. Eldersveld, Dwaine Mar-
vick and the author. It was a national study based on a 10% sample of accessible parlia-
mentary constituencies. The citizen male sample on which the present article is based
was 1,971, which was drawn from 188 polling stations spread over the country.

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 940 CONTINUITY AND CHANGE

THE IMPACT OF THE FOURTH GENERAL ELECTIONS

The 1967 elections, while a watershed in Indian politics, followed major

changes in the structure of the political system. The overwhelming domi-
nance of the center in Indian politics had started to be eroded shortly after
the third general elections. The political eminence of Nehru was shaken by
the Sino-Indian border conflict of 1962 and by the subsequent open and
often harsh criticism of his leadership, from within Congress as well as from
without. The politics of the two successions witnessed the increasing frag-
mentation of the Congress High Command which had remained reasonably
cohesive under Nehru's management. The successions also witnessed the
increasing power of state Congress leaders in the selection of leadership at
the national level as well as in their expanded participation in policy de-
cisions that affected the states. Political conflict exacerbated latent political
cleavages between the state and national levels, clearly exemplified in the
cases of food and agricultural policy and the language crisis of 1964-65.
The intense conflict over the allocation of party tickets for the 1967 elections
resulted in maj or defections from the party in some states and ushered in
the emergence of the post-1967 triangle between a Congress-dominated cen-
ter, Congress-dominant states, 'arnd state ruled by non-Congress parties or
coalitions; the party organizational leadership at both the center and in
these states was often placed at cross-purposes with the governmental leader-
ship at the center. The so-called "third succession" to the Prime Minister-
ship in 1967, while it temporarily led to a compromise formula and the
semblance of a, collective leadership, also started a process of leadership
conflict which ultimately resulted in a polarization between the organiza-
tionial bosses on the 'one hand and the Prime Minister's group on the other,
the two sides expressing opposing principles of government-party relation-
ships. The conflict is still in the process of being sorted out.
While this pattern of change was largely an elite phenomenon, impor-
tant changes were also taking place in the electorate. The results of our 1967
election survey indicate that a surprisingly large proportion of the electorate
has begun to shown a consciousness of the meaning and power of the vote, is
increasingly disposed to exercise this vote directly without being condi-
tioned by icaste or local influence, and is willing to reprimand the ruling
party for perceived inadequacies in its public performance. There are con1-
vincing indications that voter decision is in large measure the consequence
of a rational issue-oriented calculus.
Furthermore, we found that the Indian voter is developing new secular
identifications and commitments that cut across traditional primordial re-
lationships, acquire a new political character, and provide new linkages
with secular authority. Indeed, we found that an unexpectedly high propor-
tion of the Indian electorate thinks in party terms. While there is incon-
gruence between party identification and party vote in India as in most
electorates, fully 82%o of the Indian electorate identifies with one or another

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 RAJNI KOTHARI 941

political party. The largest proportion of those with a party identification

judge themselves to be Congress supporters, while the next highest propor-
tion of identifiers are supporters of parties on the right. Furthermore, a
large proportion of Congress Regulars-those who voted Congress in both
1962 and 1967-are Congress identifiers, and 67% of new Congress voters
in 1967 voiced the same identification. Where such verbal identifications
are strong, irrespective -of party, there tends to be greater resilience in politi-
cal loyalties iand there is la tendency to test ideological issues by reference to
performance criteria as well. A careful analysis of the manner in which this
combination of the meaning of lthe vote, issue articulation and party identi-
fication found expression in 1967 suggest important clues to the changing
framework of India's political system.

ISSUE IDENTIFICATION AND GOVERNMENTAL PERFORMANCE

A question important to empirical democratic theory is the meaning

that the citizen assigns his vote. Obviously the decision to participate as
well as the calculus upon which this initial decision rests are important. But
particularly important in 'the study of democracy in developing polities is
the voter's conception of the meaning, 'and purpose of 'his action and the
judgments that he makes of critical public issues as well as his appraisal
of how government has been performing. Are such questions salient to the
Indian voter? Is he cognizant of issues and governmental actions? If cog-
nizant, does he have feelings ;as to their rightness, wrongness, or is he in-
different? Does he have notions of the appropriateness of certain styles of
political action? Or does the voter "decide" largely in a parochial milieu,
constrained by the ascriptive rules reinforced 'by agents of traditional au-
thority ?
We shall commence our exploration of these questions by first analyzing
the general issue position of the electorate in 1967, judgments of appropriate
styles'of political action, party identification of the electorate, and appraisals
of governmental performance during the 1960's. To analyze the meaning of
the vote we shall use responses to two questions. The first is substantive and
elicited judgment as to whether or not government should exercise greater
or less economic controls. The second is a procedural question-are fasts
legitimate forms olf political action.
The response to these questions, as well as to those reported below, gives
evidence of a highly aware electorate. More than 80% of iour sample reg-
istered !an opinion on the question of government's role in the economy
while 84%o indicated an opinion on the question of political fasts. The elec-
torate was divided with respect to the economic role of government. Greater
controls were proposed by 28% of the sample while 38% asserted that the
economic role of government should be less. Fourteen per cent indicated that
controls should remain the same.
There are important distinctions on this question according to party affili-

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942 CO NTI N UITY AND CHANGE

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 944 CONTINUITY AND CHANGE

ation. The dispersion of Con

gruent with the national sam
character of that party. Mor
Defectors, new voters who v
Dropouts-those who voted f
polls in 1967. In the case of C
controls should be decreased
proportion that advocated le
tered 41%. These findings st
proportion of those who lef
voters believed that the eco
be decreased. This dispersion
fectors tended to go to parti
In the case of political fast
opinion and were divided acc
registered some opinion; the
approved of 'political fasts 'a
distinction according to poli
and defectors from oppositi
the use of political fasts. The Congress ranks-regulars as well as new-
comers-tended to be evenly divided over this issue. This, like the Congress
profile on the econo-mic role of government, tends to reaffirm the essentially
centrist character of the party and the distinctiveness of those in opposition.
Although there are competing positions within the party, those defecting
hold opinions more skewed than either the Congress Regulars or those de-
fecting to the Congress.
This pattern of response is congruent with the electorate's more explicit
conception of the Congress Party. For example, 50% of the Indian electorate
held an image of the Congress as a middle-road party with the remainder
divided evenly between those holding progressive and conservative images.
A somewhat higher proportion of 'all others, except defectors to Congress
and non-voters, had a centrist image of the Congress. A lower proportion
of non-Congress Regulars, Congress Dropouts and non-voters tend to see
Congress as progressive than did voters for opposition parties.
It is instructive to compare party image with self-image. Across the politi-
cal spectrum, an impressively low proportion of the electorate had an "old
and traditional" self-image. The larger proportion of most types, however,
saw themselves as political moderates. Intriguing are Congress Defectors
and the non-Clongress new voters. In each case the larger proportion saw
themselves as new and modern men, a pattern particularly noticeable among
new voters supporting opposition parties. Furthermore, there was an im-
pressively large proportion of the electorate that-had 'a "progressive" self-
image. A higher proportion of Congress Regulars, for example, saw them-
selves as progressive than saw their party as progressive. When taken with
the profile of Congress Defectors and non-Congress new voters, this would

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 RAJNI KOTHARI 945

suggest future electoral difficulties for the party unless a change in image is
forthcoming-an image more congruent with the self-image held by party
participants and new voters.
Of critical importance in a society undergoing rapid political mobiliza-
tion is the perception of personal economic condition and the relation of
these perceptions to political action and affiliation. It is indeed impressive
that over 98% of the electorate registered an opinion on the question of
personal economic condition. The large proportion (53%) of the electorate
felt that their economic condition had become worse during the decade of
the 60's, and this profile was characteristic across the party spectrumn. While
high among non-Congress Regulars and new non-Congress voters, it was
also strikingly high among defectors both to and from the Congress, al-
though slightly higher for the latter. Only a small proportion judged that
their economic condition was getting better.

TABLE 3
Voters' Perception of Financial Condition by Shift in Voting Pattern
(in percentages)

Voter Regulars Defectors New Voters

Types Cong Did
Cong Non- Congto Non- Cong Non- Drop- Not Total
Financial Cong Non- Cong to Cong Outs Vote
Condition Cong Cong

Getting better 20.0 14.0 13.8 12.9 22.2 12.4 24.4 13.7 16.6
Same 30.1 28.4 22.8 25.9 34.0 32.7 24.8 23.8 28.1
Worse 47.9 56.0 62.1 59.7 43.3 53.1 49.6 58.6 53.4
DK, NA 2.0 1.6 1.3 1.4 0.5 1.7 0.9 3.9 1.9
Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0
N=- 489 250 224 139 194 226 113 336 1971

This sense of personal economic deprivation is paralleled by voter judg-

ments of governmental performance. The majority of the electorate, for ex-
ample, strongly agreed that Congress failed to keep prices down and to dis-
trib!ute food properly. Furthermore, a large plurality strongly agreed that
Congress failed to help farmers and expressed dissatisfaction with the per-
formance of both local and higher governmental officials. Important are
the distinctions between party types. At least 70% of non-Congress voters
strongly agreed that Congress failed to hold prices down. In the case of the
distribution of food, over 64% of each non-Congress type strongly agreed
that Congress failed in its performance while 46% or less of Congress sup-
porters concurred.
These data suggest important directions of change within the Indian
electorate. First, those changing from the Congress to other parties were
quite distinct in their appraisal of both personal economic conditions and
governmental performance. Those defecting from or dropping out of the
Congress were more harsh in their judgments of each condition than were

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 946 CONTINUITY AND CHANGE

Congress supporters. Second,

the first time were likewise l
supporters of the party. Giv
The important element, howe
number of issue dissidents th

TABLE 4
Discontent with Government and Administrators by Shift in Voting Pat
(in percentages)

Regulars Defectors New Voters

Voter Types Cong Non- Cong Non- Cong Non- Total

Cong to Cong Cong
Non- to
Incidence of Discontent Cong Cong
(1) Discontent with Government
1.1 Strongly agree that Con-
gress failed to keep prices
down 52.8 73.6 72.3 51.1 57.7 69.5 61.9
1.2 Strongly agree that Con-
gress failed to distribute
food properly 40.9 64.4 69.2 44.6 46.4 65.0 52.7
1.3 Strongly agree that Con-
gress failed to provide
help for farmers 29.9 52.4 46.9 33.1 30.9 47.3 38.9
(2) Dissatisfaction with Local
Government Officials 43.6 51.6 56.7 41.0 45.4 50.0 46.5
(3) Dissatisfaction with
Officials at Higher Level 40.1 44.4 53.6 38.1 38.1 47.3 42.0
1X= 489 250 224 139 194 226 1971

Note: Each cell presents the percentage o

row (N) presents number of cases in each of these types.

CONCLUSION: DIRECTIONS OF CHANGE IN THE INDIAN POLITY

We have noted that several important structural changes have occurred

in the Indian electorate during the 1960's. There have been significant de-
fections from the Congress Party with few compensating defections from
opposition parties to Congress. These defections were fairly widely dis-
persed among opposition parties, thus indicating the absence of a collectively
perceived viable alternative to the Congress. While this dispersion of Con-
gress Defectors was important in maintaining the relative strength of the
Congress, a fairly high-proportion of the electorate did stay with the Con-
gress and a sizeable proportion of new voters held a distinct Congress identi-
fication. Two other aspects were noted: the inability of the Congress to
keep its marginal supporters (Congress Dropouts) and an increase in the
identification of segments 'of the electorate with opposition parties. We found

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RAJNI KOTHARI 947

the Congress is still "c

cial character of its pa
brella encompassing l
While the Congress em
in the Indian political
processes of internal d
critical electorate, an
among opposition part
states. Its appeal to ma
performance in the ar
supporters and oppositi
The question then is -
and party system hold
1967 election marked t
The election itself pro
the frustration of the
the party so well and
prime minister, in the
institutional mechanis
customary mechanism
intra-party issues had
of Lal Bahadur Shastri
conflicts became germ
of the power of state
the death of Nehru. T
precedent. Opposition
rule.
This change is indicate
companied by change
well. We have noted th
and is not the issue-ap
and perhaps once was.
of government in the
mental performance o
torate sees the admini
are a legitimate means
equally large proportio
is a critically import
Those who were part
economic condition ten
large proportion of th
youthful among 'them
and judgments of gove
to party preference.
Another important asp

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 948 CONTINUITY AND CHANGE

of the Congress Party structure rather than its continual fragmentation.

Given the dominance of the Congress and its monopoly of such a broad
scope of the center of the political system, the emergence of a competitive
democratic alternative faced insurmountable constraints without such a re-
alignment within Congress. This process of restructuring within Congress
is also likely to induce a larger process of structural change in the party
system with opposition parties dividing and realigning on bases other than
anti-Congress sentiment and sheer ideological prescription and appeal.
The fission of the Congress has encouraged and will continue to shape
this realignment of the party system. The center of the political system is
now dominated by two parties, one slightly to the left, one slightly to the
right, but both democratic in orientation. This split within Congress ranks
was conditioned by the structural changes that occurred in the party sys-
tem after the 1967 elections as well as by the increased salience of issues
for ia cognizant electorate. Such restructuring is conducive to the attraction
of opposition parties and groups to the center of the political system, al-
though important fringe elements will remain on both the right and the left,
and to the creation of opposing coalitions operating within a democratic
consensus.
Policy issues and the quality of governmental performance will increas-
ingly assume a new primacy in the calculations of political elites. These
considerations have been reflected in intra-party debate and division within
the Congress. Its importance has also been registered in opposition parties
which for the first time have had the opportunity to form governments. The
calculus'of coalition formation and maintenance whether within or between
parties, rather than being obsessed largely by the allocation of factional
benefits, must increasingly 'be concerned with anticipating and responding
to the will and judgment of the electorate.
Without this sensitivity to the commonweal, the probability of the polari-
zation 'of extremes around the sectarian and revivalist appeals of the right
and the doctrinaire militancy of the left will no doubt increase. Given the
increase in status insecurity, widespread unemployment particularly in
urban areas, and the sense of economic despondency that were clearly re-
flected in the judgments of the electorate in 1967, the appeal of the radical-
ism of the right will probably increase. We need but be reminded that Con-
gress Defectors went more to parties ion the right than those on the left in
1967. The inability to achieve a new consensus at the center of the political
system will encourage the erosion of consensus not only for the party system
but also for the larger political system itself.6

'For a discussion of this emerging conflict in the Indian political system between a
polarization in the center and a polarization of the extremes, see my "Politics of Con-
frontation," The Times of India, June 29, and 30, 1970.

RAJNI KOTHARI is the Director of the Centre for the Study of Developing Societies,
Delhi.

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