‫ﺩﺍﻧﺸﮕﺎﻩ ﺗﺮﺑﻴﺖ ﻣﺪﺭﺱ‪ ١٤ - ١٢ ،‬ﺑﻬﻤﻦ ‪١٣٨٣‬‬ ‫ﮐﻨﻔﺮﺍﻧﺲ ﻣﻬﻨﺪﺳﯽ ﻣﻌﺪﻥ ﺍﻳﺮﺍﻥ‪٨٣-‬‬

‫ﻗﻠﻊ‪ ،‬ﭼﺸﻢﺍﻧﺪﺍﺯ ﺁﻳﻨﺪﻩ‬

‫‪٣‬‬
‫ﻫﺎﻟﻪ ﻋﺰﻳﺰﻱ‪ ،∗١‬ﺍﻛﺒﺮﺳﺎﺭﻳﺨﺎﻧﻲ ‪ ،٢‬ﺑﻬﺰﺍﺩ ﺗﺨﻢﭼﻲ‬
‫‪ -١‬ﻛﺎﺭﺷﻨﺎﺱ ﺷﺮﻛﺖ ﺯﻣﻴﻦ ﻛﺎﻭﮔﺴﺘﺮ‬
‫‪ -٢‬ﻛﺎﺭﺷﻨﺎﺱ ﺍﺭﺷﺪ ﺷﺮﻛﺖ ﺯﻣﻴﻦ ﻛﺎﻭﮔﺴﺘﺮ‬
‫‪ -٣‬ﻋﻀﻮ ﻫﻴﺄﺕ ﻋﻠﻤﻲ ﺩﺍﻧﺸﮕﺎﻩ ﺻﻨﻌﺘﻲ ﺷﺎﻫﺮﻭﺩ ﻭ ﻋﻀﻮ ﻫﻴﺄﺕ ﻣﺪﻳﺮﻩ ﺷﺮﻛﺖ ﺯﻣﻴﻦﻛﺎﻭﮔﺴﺘﺮ‬
‫‪E-mail: azizihaleh@yahoo.com‬‬

‫ﭼﻜﻴﺪﻩ‬
‫ﺫﺧﺎﻳﺮ ﻗﻠﻊ ﺩﻧﻴﺎ ‪ ٧/٤‬ﻣﻴﻠﻴﻮﻥ ﺗﻦ ﻭ ﻣﻨﺎﺑﻊ ﺁﻥ ‪ ١٠/١‬ﻣﻴﻠﻴﻮﻥ ﺗﻦ ﺗﺨﻤﻴﻦ ﺯﺩﻩ ﺷﺪﻩ ﺍﺳﺖ ﻛﻪ ﺍﻳـﻦ ﻣﻴـﺰﺍﻥ ﺫﺧﻴـﺮﻩ ﺟﻬـﺖ‬
‫ﺍﺳﺘﺨﺮﺍﺝ ﺑﺎ ﺭﻭﻧﺪ ﻓﻌﻠﻲ ﺑﺮﺍﻱ ‪ ٤٠‬ﺳﺎﻝ ﺁﻳﻨﺪﻩ ﻛﻔﺎﻳﺖ ﻣﻲﻛﻨﺪ‪ .‬ﺗﺎ ﻛﻨﻮﻥ ﺁﻧﭽﻪ ﺍﺯ ﻛﺎﻧﻲﺯﺍﻳﻲ ﻗﻠﻊ ﺩﺭ ﺍﻳﺮﺍﻥ ﮔﺰﺍﺭﺵ ﺷﺪﻩ ﺑﻴﺸﺘﺮ ﺑـﻪ‬
‫ﺻﻮﺭﺕ ﻛﺎﻧﻲ ﺟﺎﻧﺒﻲ ﺑﻮﺩﻩ ﺍﺳﺖ‪ .‬ﺗﻮﻟﻴﺪ ﻓﻌﻠﻲ ﻛﻨﺴﺎﻧﺘﺮﻩ ﻗﻠﻊ ﻭ ﻗﻠﻊ ﺧﺎﻟﺺ ﺍﻭﻟﻴﻪ ﺩﻧﻴﺎ ﺑﺮﺣﺴﺐ ﻗﻠﻊ ﻣﺤﺘﻮﻱ ﺁﻧﻬﺎ ﺑﻪ ﺗﺮﺗﻴﺐ ‪٢٣١‬‬
‫ﻭ ‪ ٢٦١‬ﻫﺰﺍﺭﺗﻦ ﺍﺳﺖ ﻛﻪ ﭘﻴﺶﺑﻴﻨﻲ ﻣﻲﺷﻮﺩ ﻣﻴﺰﺍﻥ ﺗﻮﻟﻴﺪ ﺍﻳﻦ ﻣﺤﺼﻮﻻﺕ ﺩﺭ ﺳﺎﻝ ‪ ٢٠١٠‬ﺑﻪ ﺗﺮﺗﻴﺐ ﺗـﺎ ‪ ٢٧٢‬ﻭ ‪ ٣١٠‬ﻫـﺰﺍﺭﺗﻦ‬
‫ﺍﻓﺰﺍﻳﺶ ﻳﺎﺑﺪ‪ .‬ﻣﻴﺰﺍﻥ ﻣﺒﺎﺩﻻﺕ ﻛﻨﺴﺎﻧﺘﺮﻩ ﻗﻠﻊ ﻭ ﻗﻠﻊ ﺧﺎﻟﺺ ﻧﻴﺰ ﺑﻪ ﺗﺮﺗﻴﺐ ‪ ١١‬ﻭ ‪ ٨٥‬ﺩﺭﺻﺪ ﺍﺯ ﻛـﻞ ﺗﻮﻟﻴـﺪ ﺍﻳـﻦ ﻣﺤﺼـﻮﻻﺕ ﺩﺭ‬
‫ﺟﻬﺎﻥ ﺍﺳﺖ‪ .‬ﻣﻴﺰﺍﻥ ﻣﺒﺎﺩﻻﺕ ﺿﺎﻳﻌﺎﺕ ﻭ ﻗﺮﺍﺿﻪ ﻗﻠﻊ ﻧﻴﺰ ﺑﻪ ﻃﻮﺭ ﻣﺘﻮﺳﻂ ‪ ١٠‬ﺩﺭﺻﺪ ﻣﻴﺰﺍﻥ ﻣﺒﺎﺩﻻﺕ ﻗﻠـﻊ ﺧـﺎﻟﺺ ﺍﻭﻟﻴـﻪ ﺑـﻮﺩﻩ‬
‫ﺍﺳﺖ‪ .‬ﻗﻴﻤﺖ ﻛﻨﺴﺎﻧﺘﺮﻩ ﻗﻠﻊ‪ ،‬ﻗﻠﻊ ﺧﺎﻟﺺ ﻭ ﺿﺎﻳﻌﺎﺕ ﻗﻠﻊ ﺑﻪ ﺗﺮﺗﻴﺐ ﺣـﺪﻭﺩ ‪ ٥٣٣٣ ،٤٠٦٣‬ﻭ ‪ ٩٨٢‬ﺩﻻﺭ ﺑـﺮ ﺗـﻦ ﻗﻠـﻊ ﻣﺤﺘـﻮﻱ‬
‫ﻣﻲﺑﺎﺷﺪ‪ .‬ﺍﻳﺮﺍﻥ ﻭﺍﺭﺩﻛﻨﻨﺪﻩ ﻗﻠﻊ ﺧﺎﻟﺺ ﺍﺳﺖ ﻭ ﺩﺭ ﺣﺎﻝ ﺣﺎﺿﺮ ﺑﻪ ﻃﻮﺭ ﻣﺘﻮﺳﻂ ﺩﺭ ﻫﺮﺳﺎﻝ ‪ ١١٠٠‬ﺗﻦ ﻗﻠﻊ ﺧﺎﻟﺺ ﻭﺍﺭﺩ ﻣﻲﻛﻨﺪ‪.‬‬
‫ﺩﺭ ﺍﻳﻦ ﻣﻘﺎﻟﻪ ﺿﻤﻦ ﺑﺮﺭﺳﻲ ﻣﻴﺰﺍﻥ ﺫﺧﺎﻳﺮ‪ ،‬ﺭﻭﻧﺪ ﺗﻮﻟﻴﺪ‪ ،‬ﺑﺎﺯﺍﺭ ﻭ ﻫﻤﭽﻨﻴﻦ ﻣﺴﺎﺋﻞ ﻣﺤﻴﻂ ﺯﻳﺴﺘﻲ ﻗﻠﻊ ﺩﺭ ﺩﻧﻴﺎ ﻭ ﺍﻳﺮﺍﻥ ﺗﺎ ﺣﺪﻱ‬
‫ﺍﻃﻼﻋﺎﺕ ﻻﺯﻡ ﺑﺮﺍﻱ ﺍﺗﺨﺎﺫ ﺍﺳﺘﺮﺍﺗﮋﻱ ﻟﺰﻭﻡ ﻳﺎ ﻋﺪﻡ ﻟﺰﻭﻡ ﺍﻛﺘﺸﺎﻑ ﻭ ﺍﺳﺘﻔﺎﺩﻩ ﺍﺯ ﻣﻨﺎﺑﻊ ﺩﺍﺧﻠﻲ ﻗﻠﻊ ﻓﺮﺍﻫﻢ ﺷﺪﻩ ﺍﺳﺖ‪.‬‬

‫‪ -١‬ﻣﻘﺪﻣﻪ‬
‫ﺑﺎ ﺗﻮﺟﻪ ﺑﻪ ﭘﺘﺎﻧﺴﻴﻞ ﺯﻣﻴﻦﺷﻨﺎﺳﻲ ﺳﻨﮓﻫﺎﻱ ﺩﺭﺑﺮﮔﻴﺮﻧﺪﻩ ﻭ ﺑﺎ ﻋﻨﺎﻳﺖ ﺑﻪ ﻣﺤﻴﻂ ﻣﻨﺎﺳﺐ ﺑﺮﺍﻱ ﺗﺸﻜﻴﻞ‬
‫ﻛﺎﻧﺴﺎﺭﻫﺎﻱ ﻗﻠﻊ ﺩﺭ ﺍﻳﺮﺍﻥ ﻭﺟﻮﺩ ﺫﺧﺎﻳﺮﻱ ﺍﺯ ﺍﻳﻦ ﻓﻠﺰ ﺩﺭ ﻛﺸﻮﺭﻣﺎﻥ ﺩﻭﺭ ﺍﺯ ﺫﻫﻦ ﻧﻴﺴﺖ‪ .‬ﺍﻣﺎ ﺁﻧﭽﻪ ﺗﺎ ﻛﻨﻮﻥ ﺍﺯ‬
‫ﻛﺎﻧﻲﺯﺍﻳﻲ ﻗﻠﻊ ﺩﺭ ﺍﻳﺮﺍﻥ ﮔﺰﺍﺭﺵ ﺷﺪﻩ ﺑﻴﺸﺘﺮ ﺑﻪ ﺻﻮﺭﺕ ﻛﺎﻧﻲ ﺟﺎﻧﺒﻲ ﺑﻮﺩﻩ ﺍﺳﺖ‪ .‬ﺩﺭ ﺣﺎﻝ ﺣﺎﺿﺮ ﭘﺮﺍﻛﻨﺪﮔﻲ‬
‫ﺍﻃﻼﻋﺎﺕ ﻭ ﻋﺪﻡ ﺩﺳﺘﺮﺳﻲ ﺑﻪ ﺑﺴﻴﺎﺭﻱ ﺍﺯ ﺍﻃﻼﻋﺎﺕ‪ ،‬ﺑﺎﻋﺚ ﺷﺪﻩ ﻛﻪ ﻣﻨﺎﻃﻖ ﭘﺮﭘﺘﺎﻧﺴﻴﻞ ﻛﺸﻮﺭ ﺍﺯ ﻧﻈﺮ ﺍﻳﻦ ﻣﺎﺩﻩ‬
‫ﻣﻌﺪﻧﻲ ﻧﺎﺷﻨﺎﺧﺘﻪ ﺑﺎﻗﻲ ﺑﻤﺎﻧﺪ‪ .‬ﺍﺯ ﺁﻧﺠﺎﻳﻲ ﻛﻪ ﺗﻮﻟﻴﺪ ﻛﻨﻨﺪﮔﺎﻥ ﺍﻳﻦ ﻓﻠﺰ ﺩﺭ ﺩﻧﻴﺎ ﻛﺸﻮﺭﻫﺎﻱ ﻣﻌﺪﻭﺩﻱ ﻫﺴﺘﻨﺪ ﻭ ﺍﺯ‬
‫ﻃﺮﻓﻲ ﻧﻴﺰ ﻣﺼﺮﻑ ﺍﻳﻦ ﻓﻠﺰ ﺩﺭ ﺩﻫﻪ ﮔﺬﺷﺘﻪ ﺩﺭ ﻛﺸﻮﺭﻣﺎﻥ ﺭﻭﻧﺪ ﺻﻌﻮﺩﻱ ﺩﺍﺷﺘﻪ‪ ،‬ﻣﻲﺗﻮﺍﻥ ﺑﺎ ﻣﻄﺎﻟﻌﺎﺕ ﺳﻴﺴﺘﻤﺎﺗﻴﻚ‬

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‫ﺗﻬﺮﺍﻥ‪ -‬ﺻﻨﺪﻭﻕ ﭘﺴﺘﻲ ‪١٣١٤٥-١٣٣٧‬‬

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‫ﺩﺍﻧﺸﮕﺎﻩ ﺗﺮﺑﻴﺖ ﻣﺪﺭﺱ‪ ١٤ - ١٢ ،‬ﺑﻬﻤﻦ ‪١٣٨٣‬‬ ‫ﮐﻨﻔﺮﺍﻧﺲ ﻣﻬﻨﺪﺳﯽ ﻣﻌﺪﻥ ﺍﻳﺮﺍﻥ‪٨٣-‬‬

‫ﻭ ﺑﺮﻧﺎﻣﻪﺭﻳﺰﻱ ﺻﺤﻴﺢ ﺑﻪ ﻣﻨﺎﺑﻌﻲ ﺍﺯ ﺍﻳﻦ ﻓﻠﺰ ﺑﺮﺍﻱ ﺍﻃﻤﻴﻨﺎﻥ ﺍﺯ ﺗﻮﺍﻥ ﺗﺄﻣﻴﻦ ﻧﻴﺎﺯ ﺩﺍﺧﻠﻲ ﺩﺳﺖ ﻳﺎﻓﺖ‪ .‬ﺩﺭ ﻣﻘﺎﻟﻪ ﺣﺎﺿﺮ‬
‫ﻛﻪ ﺣﺎﺻﻞ ﺗﺤﻘﻴﻘﺎﺕ ﻛﺎﺭﺷﻨﺎﺳﺎﻥ ﺷﺮﻛﺖ ﻣﻬﻨﺪﺳﻲ ﻣﺸﺎﻭﺭ ﺯﻣﻴﻦﻛﺎﻭﮔﺴﺘﺮ ﺍﺳﺖ‪ ،‬ﻭﺿﻌﻴﺖ ﺻﻨﻌﺖ ﻗﻠﻊ ﺍﻳﺮﺍﻥ ﻭ‬
‫ﺟﻬﺎﻥ ﺍﺯ ﻧﻈﺮ ﺗﻮﻟﻴﺪ‪ ،‬ﻣﺒﺎﺩﻻﺕ ﻭ ﻗﻴﻤﺖ ﺑﺮﺭﺳﻲ ﺷﺪﻩ ﻭ ﻋﻼﻭﻩ ﺑﺮ ﭘﻴﺶﺑﻴﻨﻲ ﺁﻳﻨﺪﻩ ﺍﻳﻦ ﺻﻨﻌﺖ ﺩﺭ ﺟﻬﺎﻥ‪،‬‬
‫ﭘﻴﺸﻨﻬﺎﺩﺍﺗﻲ ﺑﺮﺍﻱ ﺗﻮﺳﻌﻪ ﭘﺎﻳﺪﺍﺭ ﺁﻥ ﺩﺭ ﻛﺸﻮﺭ ﺍﺭﺍﺋﻪ ﻣﻲﮔﺮﺩﺩ‪.‬‬

‫‪ -٢‬ﺫﺧﺎﻳﺮ ﻗﻠﻊ ﺩﺭ ﺟﻬﺎﻥ ﻭ ﺍﻳﺮﺍﻥ‬

‫ﺗﻘﺮﻳﺒ ﹰﺎ ﺗﻤﺎﻡ ﻛﺎﻧﺴﺎﺭﻫﺎﻱ ﻗﻠﻊ ﺩﺭ ﺩﺍﺧﻞ ﮔﺮﺍﻧﻴﺖﻫﺎ ﻳﺎ ﺩﺭ ﻓﺎﺻﻠﻪ ﻛﻤﻲ ﻧﺴﺒﺖ ﺑﻪ ﺁﻧﻬﺎ ﺗﺸﻜﻴﻞ ﻣﻲﺷﻮﻧﺪ‪.‬‬
‫ﻛﺎﻧﺴﺎﺭﻫﺎﻱ ﻗﻠﻊ ﺑﻪ ﺩﻭ ﻧﻮﻉ ﻛﻠﻲ ﺍﻭﻟﻴﻪ ﻭ ﺛﺎﻧﻮﻳﻪ )ﭘﻼﺳﺮﻫﺎ( ﺗﻘﺴﻴﻢ ﻣﻲﺷﻮﻧﺪ‪ .‬ﻛﺎﻧﺴﺎﺭﻫﺎﻱ ﺍﻭﻟﻴﻪ ﻗﻠﻊ ﺷﺎﻣﻞ ﺩﻭ ﺗﻴﭗ‬
‫ﻛﺎﻧﺴﺎﺭﻫﺎﻱ ﭘﮕﻤﺎﺗﻴﺘﻲ ﺗﺎ ﭘﻨﻮﻣﺎﻟﻴﺘﻲ ﻭ ﻛﺎﻧﺴﺎﺭﻫﺎﻱ ﮔﺮﻣﺎﺑﻲ ﺍﺳﺖ‪ .‬ﻛﺎﻧﺴﺎﺭﻫﺎﻱ ﺛﺎﻧﻮﻳﻪ ﻗﻠﻊ ﻧﻴﺰ ﺑﻪ ﺳﻪ ﺻﻮﺭﺕ ﭘﻼﺳﺮﻱ‬
‫ﺑﺮﺟﺎﻱ ﻣﺎﻧﺪﻩ‪ ،‬ﺭﻭﺩﺧﺎﻧﻪﺍﻱ ﻭ ﺩﺭﻳﺎﻳﻲ ﻫﺴﺘﻨﺪ‪ .‬ﻫﻤﭽﻨﻴﻦ ﻛﺎﻧﺴﺎﺭ ﻗﻠﻊ ﺑﻪ ﺻﻮﺭﺕ ﺍﺳﺘﺜﻨﺎﻳﻲ ﻭ ﺧﺎﻟﺺ ﺩﺭ ﻣﻮﺭﻥﻫﺎﻱ‬
‫ﻗﻠﻊﺩﺍﺭ ﻳﺎﻓﺖ ﻣﻲﺷﻮﺩ‪.‬‬
‫ﺗﺎ ﻛﻨﻮﻥ ﺁﻧﭽﻪ ﺍﺯ ﻛﺎﻧﻲﺯﺍﻳﻲ ﻗﻠﻊ ﺩﺭ ﺍﻳﺮﺍﻥ ﮔﺰﺍﺭﺵ ﺷﺪﻩ‪ ،‬ﺑﻴﺸﺘﺮ ﺑﻪ ﺻﻮﺭﺕ ﻛﺎﻧﻲ ﺟﺎﻧﺒﻲ ﺑﻮﺩﻩ ﺍﺳﺖ‪ .‬ﺑﺎ ﺍﻳﻦ ﻭﺟﻮﺩ ﺑﺎ‬
‫ﺗﻮﺟﻪ ﺑﻪ ﭘﺘﺎﻧﺴﻴﻞ ﺯﻣﻴﻦﺷﻨﺎﺳﻲ ﺳﻨﮓﻫﺎﻱ ﺩﺭﺑﺮﮔﻴﺮﻧﺪﻩ ﻭ ﻣﺤﻴﻂ ﻣﻨﺎﺳﺐ ﺑﺮﺍﻱ ﻛﺎﻧﺴﺎﺭﻫﺎﻱ ﻗﻠﻊ ﺩﺭ ﺍﻳﺮﺍﻥ‪ ،‬ﻭﺟﻮﺩ‬
‫ﺫﺧﺎﻳﺮ ﺍﻳﻦ ﻓﻠﺰ ﺩﺭ ﻛﺸﻮﺭ ﺩﻭﺭ ﺍﺯ ﺫﻫﻦ ﻧﻴﺴﺖ‪ .‬ﻧﺸﺎﻧﻪﻫﺎ ﻭ ﺍﻧﺪﻳﺲﻫﺎﻱ ﻣﺘﻌﺪﺩ ﻗﻠﻊ ﺩﺭ ﺍﻳﺮﺍﻥ ﮔﺰﺍﺭﺵ ﺷﺪﻩ ﺍﺳﺖ ﻛﻪ‬
‫ﺩﺭ ﺳﺮﺍﺳﺮ ﻛﺸﻮﺭ ﭘﺮﺍﻛﻨﺪﻩﺍﻧﺪ‪ .‬ﺑﻪ ﻋﻨﻮﺍﻥ ﻣﺜﺎﻝ ﻣﻲﺗﻮﺍﻥ ﺍﺯ ﻧﺸﺎﻧﻪﻫﺎﻱ ﻗﻠﻊ ﺩﺭ ﺍﺳﺘﺎﻥﻫﺎﻱ ﺧﺮﺍﺳﺎﻥ‪ ،‬ﻳﺰﺩ‪ ،‬ﺍﺻﻔﻬﺎﻥ‪،‬‬
‫ﺍﺭﺍﻙ‪ ،‬ﺁﺫﺭﺑﺎﻳﺠﺎﻥ ﺷﺮﻗﻲ ﻭ ﻏﺮﺑﻲ‪ ،‬ﮔﻴﻼﻥ‪ ،‬ﻣﺎﺯﻧﺪﺭﺍﻥ‪ ،‬ﻫﻤﺪﺍﻥ ﻭ ﻛﺮﺩﺳﺘﺎﻥ ﻧﺎﻡ ﺑﺮﺩ‪ .‬ﺩﺭ ﺟﺪﻭﻝ ‪ ١‬ﺑﻌﻀﻲ ﻭﻳﮋﮔﻲﻫﺎﻱ‬
‫ﺯﻣﻴﻦﺷﻨﺎﺳﻲ ﻛﺎﻧﺴﺎﺭ ﻗﻠﻊ ﺷﺎﻫﻜﻮﻩ ﺩﺭ ﻫﺸﺖ ﻛﻴﻠﻮﻣﺘﺮﻱ ﺷﻤﺎﻝ ﻏﺮﺏ ﺭﻭﺳﺘﺎﻱ ﺭﺧﻨﻪ ﺑﻴﺮﺟﻨﺪ ﺁﻭﺭﺩﻩ ﺷﺪﻩ ﺍﺳﺖ‪.‬‬

‫ﺟﺪﻭﻝ ‪ ١‬ﻣﺸﺨﺼﺎﺕ ﻛﺎﻧﺴﺎﺭ ﻗﻠﻊ ﺷﺎﻫﻜﻮﻩ‬

‫ﻋﻴﺎﺭ ﺗﻨﮕﺴﺘﻦ‬ ‫ﻋﻴﺎﺭ ﻗﻠﻊ‬
‫ﺫﺧﻴﺮﻩ‬ ‫ﻛﺎﻧﺴﺎﺭ‬
‫)ﮔﺮﻡ ﺩﺭ ﺗﻦ(‬ ‫)ﮔﺮﻡ ﺩﺭ ﺗﻦ(‬
‫‪١٠ - ٣٨٠‬‬ ‫‪١٢١ - ١٤٧٤‬‬ ‫‪٢٤٠٠٠٠‬‬ ‫‪I‬‬

‫‪٥ - ١٧٠٠‬‬ ‫‪٣ - ١٩٤٥‬‬ ‫‪٣٠٠٠٠٠‬‬ ‫‪II‬‬ ‫ﻗﻠﻊ ﺷﺎﻫﻜﻮﻩ‬

‫‪١٠ - ٢٢٠‬‬ ‫‪٨ - ١٢٤‬‬ ‫‪٢٦٠٠٠‬‬ ‫‪III‬‬

‫ﻛﻞ ﺫﺧﺎﻳﺮ ﻗﻠﻊ ﺩﻧﻴﺎ ‪ ٧/٤‬ﻣﻴﻠﻴﻮﻥ ﺗﻦ ﻭ ﻣﻨﺎﺑﻊ ﺁﻥ ‪ ١٠/١‬ﻣﻴﻠﻴﻮﻥ ﺗﻦ ﺗﺨﻤﻴﻦ ﺯﺩﻩ ﺷﺪﻩ ﺍﺳﺖ ﻭ ﺍﻳﻦ ﻣﻴﺰﺍﻥ‬
‫ﺫﺧﻴﺮﻩ ﺟﻬﺖ ﺍﺳﺘﺨﺮﺍﺝ ﺑﺎ ﺭﻭﻧﺪ ﻓﻌﻠﻲ ﺑﺮﺍﻱ ‪ ٤٠‬ﺳﺎﻝ ﺁﻳﻨﺪﻩ ﻛﻔﺎﻳﺖ ﻣﻲﻛﻨﺪ‪ ٦٠ .‬ﺩﺭﺻﺪ ﺍﺯ ﺍﻳﻦ ﺫﺧﺎﻳﺮ ﺩﺭ ﺁﺳﻴﺎ ﻭ ‪٢٢‬‬
‫ﺩﺭﺻﺪ ﺁﻥ ﺩﺭ ﺁﻣﺮﻳﻜﺎﻱ ﺟﻨﻮﺑﻲ ﻭﺍﻗﻊ ﺍﺳﺖ‪ .‬ﺩﺭ ﻭﺍﻗﻊ ﺍﻳﻦ ﺩﻭ ﻣﻨﻄﻘﻪ ﺑﻴﺶ ﺍﺯ ‪ ٨٠‬ﺩﺭﺻﺪ ﻛﻞ ﺫﺧﺎﻳﺮ ﻗﻠﻊ ﺩﻧﻴﺎ ﺭﺍ ﺑﻪ‬

‫‪٢‬‬
‫ﺩﺍﻧﺸﮕﺎﻩ ﺗﺮﺑﻴﺖ ﻣﺪﺭﺱ‪ ١٤ - ١٢ ،‬ﺑﻬﻤﻦ ‪١٣٨٣‬‬ ‫ﮐﻨﻔﺮﺍﻧﺲ ﻣﻬﻨﺪﺳﯽ ﻣﻌﺪﻥ ﺍﻳﺮﺍﻥ‪٨٣-‬‬

‫ﺧﻮﺩ ﺍﺧﺘﺼﺎﺹ ﺩﺍﺩﻩﺍﻧﺪ‪ .‬ﻛﺸﻮﺭﻫﺎﻱ ﭼﻴﻦ‪ ،‬ﻣﺎﻟﺰﻱ‪ ،‬ﺑﺮﺯﻳﻞ ﻭ ﺗﺎﻳﻠﻨﺪ ﺑﻪ ﺗﺮﺗﻴﺐ ﺩﺍﺭﺍﻱ ﺑﻴﺸﺘﺮﻳﻦ ﺫﺧﻴﺮﻩ ﻗﻠﻊ ﺩﺭ ﺩﻧﻴﺎ‬
‫ﻫﺴﺘﻨﺪ‪ .‬ﺳﻬﻢ ﻫﺮﻳﻚ ﺍﺯ ﻛﺸﻮﺭﻫﺎﻱ ﻋﻤﺪﻩ ﺩﺍﺭﺍﻱ ﺫﺧﺎﻳﺮ ﻗﻠﻊ ﺩﺭ ﺷﻜﻞ ‪ ١‬ﻧﺸﺎﻥ ﺩﺍﺩﻩ ﺷﺪﻩ ﺍﺳﺖ‪.‬‬

‫ﺳﺎﻳﺮ آﺸﻮرهﺎ‬
‫ﺑﻮﻟﻴﻮي‬ ‫ﭼﻴﻦ‬
‫‪10%‬‬
‫‪22%‬‬
‫‪ 6%‬زﺋﻴﺮ‬
‫‪7%‬‬

‫اﻧﺪوﻧﺰي‬ ‫ﺑﺮزﻳﻞ‬

‫‪10%‬‬ ‫‪16%‬‬
‫ﺗﺎﻳﻠﻨ ﺪ‬ ‫ﻣﺎﻟﺰي‬

‫‪13%‬‬ ‫‪16%‬‬

‫ﺷﻜﻞ ‪ ١‬ﺳﻬﻢ ﻫﺮﻳﻚ ﺍﺯ ﻛﺸﻮﺭﻫﺎﻱ ﻋﻤﺪﻩ ﺩﺍﺭﺍﻱ ﺫﺧﺎﻳﺮ ﻗﻠﻊ ﺟﻬﺎﻥ‬

‫‪ -٣‬ﺗﻮﻟﻴﺪ ﻗﻠﻊ ﺩﺭ ﺟﻬﺎﻥ ﻭ ﺍﻳﺮﺍﻥ‬

‫ﻣﻴﺰﺍﻥ ﺗﻮﻟﻴﺪ ﺳﺎﻻﻧﻪ ﻛﻨﺴﺎﻧﺘﺮﻩ ﻗﻠﻊ ﺩﻧﻴﺎ‪ ٢٣١ ،‬ﻫﺰﺍﺭﺗﻦ ﻣﺤﺘﻮﻱ ﻗﻠﻊ ﺍﺳﺖ‪ ،‬ﻛﻪ ﺳﺎﻻﻧﻪ ﺑﺎ ﻧﺮﺥ ‪ ٠/٥‬ﺩﺭﺻﺪ ﺍﻓﺰﺍﻳﺶ‬
‫ﻣﻲﻳﺎﺑﺪ‪ .‬ﺗﻮﻟﻴﺪ ﻛﻨﻨﺪﮔﺎﻥ ﻋﻤﺪﻩ ﻛﻨﺴﺎﻧﺘﺮﻩ ﻗﻠﻊ ﺩﻧﻴﺎ ﺑﻪ ﺗﺮﺗﻴﺐ ﺍﻧﺪﻭﻧﺰﻱ‪ ،‬ﭼﻴﻦ‪ ،‬ﭘﺮﻭ‪ ،‬ﺑﻮﻟﻴﻮﻱ ﻭ ﺑﺮﺯﻳﻞ ﻫﺴﺘﻨﺪ ﻛﻪ ﺩﺭ‬
‫ﻣﺠﻤﻮﻉ ﺣﺪﻭﺩ ‪ ٩٠‬ﺩﺭﺻﺪ ﺍﺯ ﻛﻞ ﺗﻮﻟﻴﺪ ﺍﻳﻦ ﻣﺤﺼﻮﻝ ﺭﺍ ﺩﺭ ﺩﻧﻴﺎ ﺑﻪ ﺧﻮﺩ ﺍﺧﺘﺼﺎﺹ ﺩﺍﺩﻩﺍﻧﺪ‪ .‬ﺩﺭ ﺍﻳﺮﺍﻥ ﻣﻌﺪﻥ ﻓﻌﺎﻝ‬
‫ﻗﻠﻊ ﻭ ﻫﻤﭽﻨﻴﻦ ﺗﻮﻟﻴﺪ ﻛﻨﺴﺎﻧﺘﺮﻩ ﻗﻠﻊ ﻭﺟﻮﺩ ﻧﺪﺍﺭﺩ‪ .‬ﺩﺭ ﺷﻜﻞ ‪ ٢‬ﺳﻬﻢ ﻫﺮﻳﻚ ﺍﺯ ﻛﺸﻮﺭﻫﺎﻱ ﻋﻤﺪﻩ ﺗﻮﻟﻴﺪ ﻛﻨﻨﺪﻩ‬
‫ﻛﻨﺴﺎﻧﺘﺮﻩ ﻗﻠﻊ ﺩﺭ ﺩﻧﻴﺎ ﻧﺸﺎﻥ ﺩﺍﺩﻩ ﺷﺪﻩ ﺍﺳﺖ‪.‬‬

‫ﺳﺎﻳﺮ آﺸﻮرهﺎ‬
‫ﺑﺮزﻳﻞ‬
‫‪11%‬‬ ‫اﻧﺪوﻧﺰي‬
‫‪5%‬‬
‫ﺑﻮﻟﻴﻮي‬ ‫‪34%‬‬
‫‪6%‬‬

‫ﭘﺮو‬
‫‪17%‬‬ ‫ﭼﻴﻦ‬
‫‪27%‬‬
‫ﺷﻜﻞ ‪ ٢‬ﺳﻬﻢ ﻫﺮﻳﻚ ﺍﺯ ﻛﺸﻮﺭﻫﺎﻱ ﺗﻮﻟﻴﺪ ﻛﻨﻨﺪﻩ ﻋﻤﺪﻩ ﻛﻨﺴﺎﻧﺘﺮﻩ ﻗﻠﻊ ﺩﺭ ﺩﻧﻴﺎ‬

‫‪٣‬‬
‫ﺩﺍﻧﺸﮕﺎﻩ ﺗﺮﺑﻴﺖ ﻣﺪﺭﺱ‪ ١٤ - ١٢ ،‬ﺑﻬﻤﻦ ‪١٣٨٣‬‬ ‫ﮐﻨﻔﺮﺍﻧﺲ ﻣﻬﻨﺪﺳﯽ ﻣﻌﺪﻥ ﺍﻳﺮﺍﻥ‪٨٣-‬‬

‫ﺑﺎ ﺗﻮﺟﻪ ﺑﻪ ﻣﺤﺪﻭﺩﻳﺖ ﻫﺎﻳﻲ ﻛﻪ ﺩﺭ ﻣﺼﺮﻑ ﻗﻠﻊ ﻭﺟﻮﺩ ﺩﺍﺭﺩ‪ ،‬ﻧﺮﺥ ﺭﺷﺪ ﻣﺼﺮﻑ ﺍﻳﻦ ﻣﺤﺼﻮﻝ ﺩﺭ ﺣﺪ ﭘﺎﻳﻴﻨﻲ ﺍﺳﺖ ﻭ‬
‫ﺩﺭ ﺳﺎﻝﻫﺎﻱ ﺁﻳﻨﺪﻩ ﻧﻴﺰ ﺗﻮﻟﻴﺪ‪ ،‬ﺍﻓﺰﺍﻳﺶ ﻗﺎﺑﻞ ﺗﻮﺟﻬﻲ ﻧﺨﻮﺍﻫﺪ ﺩﺍﺷﺖ‪ .‬ﭘﻴﺶﺑﻴﻨﻲ ﻣﻲﺷﻮﺩ ﻛﻪ ﺗﻮﻟﻴﺪ ﻛﻨﺴﺎﻧﺘﺮﻩ ﻗﻠﻊ‬
‫ﺑﺮﺣﺴﺐ ﻣﺤﺘﻮﻱ ﻗﻠﻊ ﺁﻥ ﺩﺭ ﺳﺎﻝ ‪ ٢٠١٠‬ﺑﻪ ﺑﻴﺶ ﺍﺯ ‪ ٢٧٢‬ﻫﺰﺍﺭ ﺗﻦ ﺩﺭ ﺳﺎﻝ ﺍﻓﺰﺍﻳﺶ ﻳﺎﺑﺪ‪ .‬ﻣﺪﻟﺴﺎﺯﻱ ﺭﻭﻧﺪ ﺍﻳﻦ‬
‫ﺍﻓﺰﺍﻳﺶ ﺩﺭ ﺷﻜﻞ ‪ ٣‬ﻧﺸﺎﻥ ﺩﺍﺩﻩ ﺷﺪﻩ ﺍﺳﺖ‪.‬‬

‫‪300‬‬
‫ﻣﻴﺰان ﺗﻮﻟﻴﺪ )ﻣﻴﻠﻴﻮن ﺗﻦ(‬

‫‪250‬‬

‫‪200‬‬

‫‪150‬‬
‫ﻣﻘﺎدﻳﺮ واﻗﻌﻲ‬ ‫ﻣﻘﺎدﻳﺮ ﺗﺨﻤﻴﻨﻲ‬
‫‪100‬‬
‫‪1985‬‬ ‫‪1990‬‬ ‫‪ 2000‬ﺳﺎل ‪1995‬‬ ‫‪2005‬‬ ‫‪2010‬‬

‫ﺷﻜﻞ ‪ ٣‬ﭘﻴﺶﺑﻴﻨﻲ ﺭﻭﻧﺪ ﺍﻓﺰﺍﻳﺶ ﺗﻮﻟﻴﺪ ﻛﺎﻧﻪ ﻭﻛﻨﺴﺎﻧﺘﺮﻩ ﻗﻠﻊ ﺗﺎ ﺳﺎﻝ ‪)٢٠١٠‬ﻫﺰﺍﺭ ﺗﻦ ﻗﻠﻊ ﻣﺤﺘﻮﻱ(‬

‫ﻣﻴﺰﺍﻥ ﺗﻮﻟﻴﺪ ﻗﻠﻊ ﺧﺎﻟﺺ ﺍﻭﻟﻴﻪ ﺣﺪﻭﺩ ‪ ٢٦١‬ﻫﺰﺍﺭﺗﻦ ﺩﺭ ﺳﺎﻝ ﺍﺳﺖ ﻛﻪ ﺩﺭ ﺩﻫﻪ ﺍﺧﻴﺮ ﻧﻴﺰ ﺭﺷﺪﻱ ﻣﻌﺎﺩﻝ ‪ ٢/٣‬ﺩﺭﺻﺪ‬
‫ﺩﺭ ﻫﺮ ﺳﺎﻝ ﺩﺍﺷﺘﻪ ﺍﺳﺖ‪ .‬ﻛﺸﻮﺭﻫﺎﻱ ﻋﻤﺪﻩ ﺗﻮﻟﻴﺪ ﻛﻨﻨﺪﻩ ﺍﻳﻦ ﻣﺤﺼﻮﻝ ﺩﺭ ﺩﻧﻴﺎ ﺑﻪ ﺗﺮﺗﻴﺐ ﭼﻴﻦ‪ ،‬ﺍﻧﺪﻭﻧﺰﻱ‪ ،‬ﭘﺮﻭ‪،‬‬
‫ﻣﺎﻟﺰﻱ‪ ،‬ﺗﺎﻳﻠﻨﺪ‪ ،‬ﺑﻮﻟﻴﻮﻱ ﻭ ﺑﺮﺯﻳﻞ ﻫﺴﺘﻨﺪ ﻛﻪ ﺩﺭ ﻣﺠﻤﻮﻉ ﺑﻴﺶ ﺍﺯ ‪ ٩٤‬ﺩﺭﺻﺪ ﺍﺯ ﻛﻞ ﺗﻮﻟﻴﺪ ﻗﻠﻊ ﺧﺎﻟﺺ ﺩﻧﻴﺎ ﺭﺍ ﺑﻪ ﺧﻮﺩ‬
‫ﺍﺧﺘﺼﺎﺹ ﺩﺍﺩﻩﺍﻧﺪ‪ .‬ﺩﺭ ﺍﻳﺮﺍﻥ ﻗﻠﻊ ﺧﺎﻟﺺ ﺍﻭﻟﻴﻪ ﺗﻮﻟﻴﺪ ﻧﻤﻲﺷﻮﺩ‪ .‬ﺩﺭ ﺷﻜﻞﻫﺎﻱ ‪ ٤‬ﻭ ‪ ٥‬ﺳﻬﻢ ﻫﺮﻳﻚ ﺍﺯ ﻛﺸﻮﺭﻫﺎﻱ‬
‫ﺗﻮﻟﻴﺪ ﻛﻨﻨﺪﻩ ﻋﻤﺪﻩ ﻗﻠﻊ ﺧﺎﻟﺺ ﺍﻭﻟﻴﻪ ﻭ ﻫﻤﭽﻨﻴﻦ ﺭﻭﻧﺪ ﺍﻓﺰﺍﻳﺶ ﺗﻮﻟﻴﺪ ﺍﻳﻦ ﻣﺤﺼﻮﻝ ﺗﺎ ﺳﺎﻝ ‪ ٢٠١٠‬ﻧﺸﺎﻥ ﺩﺍﺩﻩ ﺷﺪﻩ‬
‫ﺍﺳﺖ‪.‬‬

‫‪٤‬‬
‫ﺩﺍﻧﺸﮕﺎﻩ ﺗﺮﺑﻴﺖ ﻣﺪﺭﺱ‪ ١٤ - ١٢ ،‬ﺑﻬﻤﻦ ‪١٣٨٣‬‬ ‫ﮐﻨﻔﺮﺍﻧﺲ ﻣﻬﻨﺪﺳﯽ ﻣﻌﺪﻥ ﺍﻳﺮﺍﻥ‪٨٣-‬‬

‫ﺑﺮزﻳﻞ ﺑﻮﻟﻴﻮي‬ ‫ﺳﺎﻳﺮ آﺸﻮرهﺎ‬

‫ﭼﻴﻦ‬
‫‪5% 4%‬‬ ‫‪6%‬‬
‫ﺗﺎﻳﻠﻨ ﺪ‬ ‫‪28%‬‬

‫‪7%‬‬

‫ﻣﺎﻟﺰي‬
‫‪12%‬‬
‫ﭘﺮو‬
‫اﻧﺪوﻧﺰي‬
‫‪13%‬‬
‫‪25%‬‬

‫ﺷﻜﻞ‪ ٤‬ﺳﻬﻢ ﻫﺮﻳﻚ ﺍﺯ ﻛﺸﻮﺭﻫﺎﻱ ﺗﻮﻟﻴﺪ ﻛﻨﻨﺪﻩ ﻋﻤﺪﻩ ﻗﻠﻊ ﺧﺎﻟﺺ ﺍﻭﻟﻴﻪ ﺩﺭ ﺩﻧﻴﺎ‬

‫ﺗﻮﻟﻴﺪ ﺳﺎﻻﻧﻪ ﻗﻠﻊ ﺛﺎﻧﻮﻳﻪ ﺩﺭ ﺩﻧﻴﺎ ﺩﺭ ﺣﺪﻭﺩ ‪ ١٣/٩‬ﻫﺰﺍﺭ ﺗﻦ ﺍﺳﺖ‪ .‬ﺩﺭ ﺩﻫﻪ ﮔﺬﺷﺘﻪ ﻧﺮﺥ ﻛﺎﻫﺶ ﺗﻮﻟﻴﺪ ﺍﻳﻦ‬
‫ﻣﺤﺼﻮﻝ ‪ ٢/٦‬ﺩﺭﺻﺪ ﺑﻮﺩﻩ ﺍﺳﺖ‪ .‬ﻛﺸﻮﺭﻫﺎﻱ ﺁﻣﺮﻳﻜﺎ ﺑﺎ ﺗﻮﻟﻴﺪ ‪ ٦/٤‬ﻫﺰﺍﺭ ﺗﻦ )‪ ٤٦‬ﺩﺭﺻﺪ( ﻭ ﺑﻠﮋﻳﻚ ﺑﺎ ﺗﻮﻟﻴﺪ ‪ ٦‬ﻫﺰﺍﺭﺗﻦ‬
‫)‪ ٤٣‬ﺩﺭﺻﺪ( ﺑﺰﺭﮔﺘﺮﻳﻦ ﺗﻮﻟﻴﺪ ﻛﻨﻨﺪﮔﺎﻥ ﺍﻳﻦ ﻣﺤﺼﻮﻝ ﺩﺭ ﺩﻧﻴﺎ ﻫﺴﺘﻨﺪ‪.‬‬

‫‪350‬‬
‫‪300‬‬
‫ﻣﻴﺰان ﺗﻮﻟﻴﺪ)هﺰارﺗﻦ(‬

‫‪250‬‬
‫‪200‬‬
‫‪150‬‬
‫‪100‬‬
‫‪50‬‬
‫‪0‬‬

‫‪1990‬‬ ‫ﺳﺎل ‪1995‬‬

‫‪2000‬واﻗﻌﻲ‬
‫ﻣﻘﺎدﻳﺮ‬ ‫‪2005‬‬
‫‪2010‬ﻣﻘﺎدﻳﺮ ﺗﺨﻤﻴﻨﻲ‬

‫ﺷﻜﻞ ‪ -٥‬ﻣﺪﻟﺴﺎﺯﻱ ﺭﻭﻧﺪ ﺍﻓﺰﺍﻳﺶ ﺗﻮﻟﻴﺪ ﻗﻠﻊ ﺧﺎﻟﺺ ﺍﻭﻟﻴﻪ ﺗﺎ ﺳﺎﻝ ‪)٢٠١٠‬ﻫﺰﺍﺭ ﺗﻦ ﻗﻠﻊ ﻣﺤﺘﻮﻱ(‬

‫‪٥‬‬
‫ﺩﺍﻧﺸﮕﺎﻩ ﺗﺮﺑﻴﺖ ﻣﺪﺭﺱ‪ ١٤ - ١٢ ،‬ﺑﻬﻤﻦ ‪١٣٨٣‬‬ ‫ﮐﻨﻔﺮﺍﻧﺲ ﻣﻬﻨﺪﺳﯽ ﻣﻌﺪﻥ ﺍﻳﺮﺍﻥ‪٨٣-‬‬

‫‪ – ٤‬ﻣﺒﺎﺩﻻﺕ ﻗﻠﻊ ﺩﺭ ﺟﻬﺎﻥ ﻭ ﺍﻳﺮﺍﻥ‬

‫ﻣﻴﺰﺍﻥ ﺻﺎﺩﺭﺍﺕ ﻛﻨﺴﺎﻧﺘﺮﻩ ﻗﻠﻊ ﺑﻴﻦ ﺳﺎﻝﻫﺎﻱ ‪ ١٩٩٣‬ﺗﺎ ‪ ٢٠٠٢‬ﺭﻭﻧﺪﻱ ﻧﺎﻣﻨﻈﻢ ﻭ ﻣﺘﻐﻴﺮ ﺩﺍﺷﺘﻪ ﻭ ﺑﻪ ﻃﻮﺭ ﻛﻠﻲ‬
‫ﺍﺯ ﺣﺪﻭﺩ ‪ ٣٤/٦‬ﺑﻪ ‪ ٢٥/٤‬ﻫﺰﺍﺭ ﺗﻦ ﻣﺤﺘﻮﻱ ﻗﻠﻊ ﻛﺎﻫﺶ ﻳﺎﻓﺘﻪ ﺍﺳﺖ‪ .‬ﻣﻴﺰﺍﻥ ﺻﺎﺩﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻳﻦ ﻣﺤﺼﻮﻝ ﺑﻪ ﻃﻮﺭ ﻣﺘﻮﺳﻂ‬
‫‪ ١١‬ﺩﺭﺻﺪ ﺍﺯ ﺗﻮﻟﻴﺪ ﺁﻥ ﺭﺍ ﺑﻪ ﺧﻮﺩ ﺍﺧﺘﺼﺎﺹ ﺩﺍﺩﻩ ﺍﺳﺖ‪ .‬ﻛﺸﻮﺭﻫﺎﻱ ﺍﺳﺘﺮﺍﻟﻴﺎ‪ ،‬ﭘﺮﻭ‪ ،‬ﺳﻨﮕﺎﭘﻮﺭ ﻭ ﺑﻮﻟﻴﻮﻱ ﺑﻴﺶ ﺍﺯ ‪٩٤‬‬
‫ﺩﺭﺻﺪ ﺍﺯ ﻛﻞ ﺻﺎﺩﺭﺍﺕ ﻛﻨﺴﺎﻧﺘﺮﻩ ﻗﻠﻊ ﺩﻧﻴﺎ ﺭﺍ ﺑﻪ ﺧﻮﺩ ﺍﺧﺘﺼﺎﺹ ﺩﺍﺩﻩﺍﻧﺪ‪ .‬ﺩﺭ ﺷﻜﻞ ‪ ٦‬ﺳﻬﻢ ﻫﺮ ﻳﻚ ﺍﺯ ﺍﻳﻦ ﻛﺸﻮﺭﻫﺎ‬
‫ﻧﺸﺎﻥ ﺩﺍﺩﻩ ﺷﺪﻩ ﺍﺳﺖ‪.‬‬

‫ﺳﺎﻳﺮ آﺸﻮرهﺎ‬
‫ﺑﻮﻟﻴﻮي‬
‫‪6%‬‬ ‫اﺳﺘﺮاﻟﻴﺎ‬
‫‪6%‬‬
‫ﺳﻨﮕﺎﭘﻮر‬ ‫‪39%‬‬
‫‪19%‬‬

‫ﭘﺮو‬
‫‪30%‬‬

‫ﺷﻜﻞ ‪ - ٦‬ﺳﻬﻢ ﻫﺮﻳﻚ ﺍﺯ ﻛﺸﻮﺭﻫﺎﻱ ﻋﻤﺪﻩ ﺻﺎﺩﺭ ﻛﻨﻨﺪﻩ ﻛﻨﺴﺎﻧﺘﺮﻩ ﻗﻠﻊ‬

‫ﺁﻣﺎﺭ ﻭﺍﺭﺩﺍﺕ ﻛﻨﺴﺎﻧﺘﺮﻩ ﻗﻠﻊ ﺑﺎ ﻣﻴﺰﺍﻥ ﺻﺎﺩﺭﺍﺕ ﺁﻥ ﻣﺘﻔﺎﻭﺕ ﺍﺳﺖ ﺑﻪ ﻃﻮﺭﻱ ﻛﻪ ﻣﻴﺰﺍﻥ ﻭﺍﺭﺩﺍﺕ ﻛﺸﻮﺭﻫﺎﻱ ﺩﻧﻴﺎ ﺩﺭ‬
‫ﺣﺪﻭﺩ ‪ ٥٧‬ﻫﺰﺍﺭﺗﻦ ﻣﺤﺘﻮﻱ ﻗﻠﻊ ﻣﻲﺑﺎﺷﺪ‪ .‬ﻛﺸﻮﺭﻫﺎﻱ ﺗﺎﻳﻠﻨﺪ‪ ،‬ﻣﺎﻟﺰﻱ‪ ،‬ﭼﻴﻦ‪ ،‬ﻣﻜﺰﻳﻚ ﺑﺎ ﺍﺧﺘﺼﺎﺹ ﻣﺠﻤﻮﻋ ﹰﺎ ﺣﺪﻭﺩ‬
‫‪ ٨٠‬ﺩﺭﺻﺪ ﺍﺯ ﻭﺍﺭﺩﺍﺕ ﺍﻳﻦ ﻣﺤﺼﻮﻝ‪ ،‬ﺑﺰﺭﮔﺘﺮﻳﻦ ﻭﺍﺭﺩ ﻛﻨﻨﺪﮔﺎﻥ ﻛﻨﺴﺎﻧﺘﺮﻩ ﻗﻠﻊ ﺩﺭ ﺩﻧﻴﺎ ﻣﺤﺴﻮﺏ ﻣﻲﺷﻮﻧﺪ‪ .‬ﺩﺭ ﺷﻜﻞ‬
‫‪ ٧‬ﺳﻬﻢ ﻭﺍﺭﺩﺍﺕ ﻛﻨﺴﺎﻧﺘﺮﻩ ﻗﻠﻊ ﻛﺸﻮﺭﻫﺎﻱ ﻭﺍﺭﺩ ﻛﻨﻨﺪﻩ ﻋﻤﺪﻩ ﻧﺸﺎﻥ ﺩﺍﺩﻩ ﺷﺪﻩ ﺍﺳﺖ‪.‬‬

‫‪٦‬‬
‫ﺩﺍﻧﺸﮕﺎﻩ ﺗﺮﺑﻴﺖ ﻣﺪﺭﺱ‪ ١٤ - ١٢ ،‬ﺑﻬﻤﻦ ‪١٣٨٣‬‬ ‫ﮐﻨﻔﺮﺍﻧﺲ ﻣﻬﻨﺪﺳﯽ ﻣﻌﺪﻥ ﺍﻳﺮﺍﻥ‪٨٣-‬‬

‫ﺗﺎﻳﻠﻨ ﺪ‬
‫‪47%‬‬

‫ﺳﺎﻳﺮ آﺸﻮرهﺎ‬ ‫ﻣﺎﻟﺰي‬

‫ﻣﻜﺰﻳ ﻚ‬ ‫ﭼﻴﻦ‬ ‫‪23%‬‬
‫‪21%‬‬
‫‪4%‬‬ ‫‪5%‬‬

‫ﺷﻜﻞ ‪ - ٧‬ﺳﻬﻢ ﻭﺍﺭﺩﺍﺕ ﻛﺸﻮﺭﻫﺎﻱ ﺍﺻﻠﻲ ﻭﺍﺭﺩ ﻛﻨﻨﺪﻩ ﻛﻨﺴﺎﻧﺘﺮﻩ ﻗﻠﻊ ﺩﺭ ﺩﻧﻴﺎ‬

‫ﺭﻭﻧﺪ ﺍﻓﺰﺍﻳﺶ ﻣﺒﺎﺩﻻﺕ ﻛﻨﺴﺎﻧﺘﺮﻩ ﻗﻠﻊ ﺗﺎ ﺳﺎﻝ ‪ ٢٠١٠‬ﺩﺭ ﺷﻜﻞ ‪ ٨‬ﻧﺸﺎﻥ ﺩﺍﺩﻩ ﺷﺪﻩ ﺍﺳﺖ‪ .‬ﺑﺮ ﺍﻳﻦ ﺍﺳﺎﺱ ﭘﻴﺶﺑﻴﻨﻲ‬
‫ﻣﻲﺷﻮﺩ ﻛﻪ ﻣﺒﺎﺩﻻﺕ ﺍﻳﻦ ﻣﺤﺼﻮﻝ ﺩﺭ ﺳﺎﻝ ‪ ٢٠١٠‬ﺑﻪ ﺣﺪﻭﺩ‪ ٦٠‬ﻫﺰﺍﺭ ﺗﻦ ﻣﺤﺘﻮﻱ ﻗﻠﻊ ﺍﻓﺰﺍﻳﺶ ﻳﺎﺑﺪ‪.‬‬

‫‪100‬‬
‫‪80‬‬
‫ﻣﻘﺪار ﻣﺒﺎدﻻت)هﺰار ﺗﻦ(‬

‫‪60‬‬
‫‪40‬‬

‫‪20‬‬

‫‪0‬‬

‫‪1990‬‬ ‫‪1995‬‬ ‫‪2000‬‬ ‫‪2005‬‬ ‫‪2010‬‬

‫ﻣﻘﺎدﻳﺮ واﻗﻌﻲ‬ ‫ﺳﺎل ﻣﻘﺎدﻳﺮ ﺗﺨﻤﻴﻨﻲ‬

‫ﺷﻜﻞ ‪ -٨‬ﺭﻭﻧﺪ ﺍﻓﺰﺍﻳﺶ ﻣﺒﺎﺩﻻﺕ ﻛﺎﻧﻪ ﻭ ﻛﻨﺴﺎﻧﺘﺮﻩ ﻗﻠﻊ ﺗﺎ ﺳﺎﻝ ‪)٢٠١٠‬ﻫﺰﺍﺭ ﺗﻦ ﻗﻠﻊ ﻣﺤﺘﻮﻱ(‬

‫‪٧‬‬
‫ﺩﺍﻧﺸﮕﺎﻩ ﺗﺮﺑﻴﺖ ﻣﺪﺭﺱ‪ ١٤ - ١٢ ،‬ﺑﻬﻤﻦ ‪١٣٨٣‬‬ ‫ﮐﻨﻔﺮﺍﻧﺲ ﻣﻬﻨﺪﺳﯽ ﻣﻌﺪﻥ ﺍﻳﺮﺍﻥ‪٨٣-‬‬

‫ﻣﻴﺰﺍﻥ ﻣﺒﺎﺩﻻﺕ ﻗﻠﻊ ﺧﺎﻟﺺ ﺩﺭ ﺣﺪﻭﺩ ‪ ٢٢١‬ﻫﺰﺍﺭﺗﻦ ﺩﺭ ﻫﺮﺳﺎﻝ ﺍﺳﺖ‪ .‬ﻧﺮﺥ ﺍﻓﺰﺍﻳﺶ ﺍﻳﻦ ﻣﺒﺎﺩﻻﺕ ﺩﺭ ﻫﺮ ﺳﺎﻝ ‪٣‬‬
‫ﺩﺭﺻﺪ ﺍﺳﺖ‪ .‬ﻣﻴﺰﺍﻥ ﻣﺒﺎﺩﻻﺕ ﻗﻠﻊ ﺧﺎﻟﺺ ﺑﻴﺶ ﺍﺯ ‪ ٨٥‬ﺩﺭﺻﺪ ﺍﺯ ﻛﻞ ﺗﻮﻟﻴﺪ ﺁﻥ ﺭﺍ ﺩﺭ ﺩﻧﻴﺎ ﺑﻪ ﺧﻮﺩ ﺍﺧﺘﺼﺎﺹ ﺩﺍﺩﻩ‬
‫ﺍﺳﺖ‪ .‬ﻛﺸﻮﺭﻫﺎﻱ ﺍﻧﺪﻭﻧﺰﻱ‪ ،‬ﺳﻨﮕﺎﭘﻮﺭ‪ ،‬ﭼﻴﻦ‪ ،‬ﭘﺮﻭ‪ ،‬ﺗﺎﻳﻠﻨﺪ ﻭ ﺑﻮﻟﻴﻮﻱ ﺑﻪ ﺗﺮﺗﻴﺐ ﺑﺰﺭﮔﺘﺮﻳﻦ ﺻﺎﺩﺭ ﻛﻨﻨﺪﮔﺎﻥ ﻗﻠﻊ ﺧﺎﻟﺺ‬
‫ﺩﻧﻴﺎ ﻫﺴﺘﻨﺪ ﻭ ﺩﺭ ﻣﺠﻤﻮﻉ ﺑﻴﺶ ﺍﺯ ‪ ٨٣‬ﺩﺭﺻﺪ ﺍﺯ ﻛﻞ ﺻﺎﺩﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻳﻦ ﻣﺤﺼﻮﻝ ﺭﺍ ﺩﺭ ﺩﻧﻴﺎ ﺑﻪ ﺧﻮﺩ ﺍﺧﺘﺼﺎﺹ ﺩﺍﺩﻩﺍﻧﺪ‪.‬‬
‫ﻛﺸﻮﺭﻫﺎﻱ ﺁﻣﺮﻳﻜﺎ‪ ،‬ﮊﺍﭘﻦ‪ ،‬ﺁﻟﻤﺎﻥ‪ ،‬ﺗﺎﻳﻮﺍﻥ‪ ،‬ﺳﻨﮕﺎﭘﻮﺭ ﻭ ﻛﺮﻩ ﺟﻨﻮﺑﻲ ﻧﻴﺰ ﺑﺰﺭﮔﺘﺮﻳﻦ ﻭﺍﺭﺩ ﮔﻨﻨﺪﮔﺎﻥ ﻗﻠﻊ ﺧﺎﻟﺺ ﺩﺭ ﺩﻧﻴﺎ‬
‫ﻫﺴﺘﻨﺪ ﻛﻪ ﺩﺭ ﻣﺠﻤﻮﻉ ﺑﻴﺶ ﺍﺯ ‪ ٦٩‬ﺩﺭﺻﺪ ﺍﺯ ﻛﻞ ﻭﺍﺭﺩﺍﺕ ﺍﻳﻦ ﻣﺤﺼﻮﻝ ﺭﺍ ﺑﻪ ﺧﻮﺩ ﺍﺧﺘﺼﺎﺹ ﺩﺍﺩﻩﺍﻧﺪ‪ .‬ﺍﻳﺮﺍﻥ ﻭﺍﺭﺩ‬
‫ﻛﻨﻨﺪﻩ ﻗﻠﻊ ﺧﺎﻟﺺ ﺍﺳﺖ‪ .‬ﻣﻴﺰﺍﻥ ﻭﺍﺭﺩﺍﺕ ﻛﺸﻮﺭﻣﺎﻥ ﺍﺯ ﺣﺪﻭﺩ ‪ ٣٠٠‬ﺗﻦ ﺩﺭ ﺳﺎﻝ ‪ ١٩٩٣‬ﺑﻪ ‪ ١١٠٠‬ﺗﻦ ﺩﺭ ﺳﺎﻝ‬
‫‪ ٢٠٠٢‬ﺍﻓﺰﺍﻳﺶ ﻳﺎﻓﺘﻪ ﺍﺳﺖ‪ .‬ﺩﺭ ﺷﻜﻞﻫﺎﻱ ‪ ٩‬ﻭ ‪ ١٠‬ﺑﻪ ﺗﺮﺗﻴﺐ ﺳﻬﻢ ﺻﺎﺩﺭﺍﺕ ﻭ ﻭﺍﺭﺩﺍﺕ ﻛﺸﻮﺭﻫﺎﻱ ﻋﻤﺪﻩ ﻣﺒﺎﺩﻟﻪ‬
‫ﻛﻨﻨﺪﻩ ﻗﻠﻊ ﺧﺎﻟﺺ ﺩﻧﻴﺎ ﻧﺸﺎﻥ ﺩﺍﺩﻩ ﺷﺪﻩ ﺍﺳﺖ‪.‬‬
‫ﺳﺎﻳﺮ آﺸﻮرهﺎ‬
‫اﻧﺪوﻧﺰي‬
‫‪16%‬‬
‫ﺑﻮﻟﻴﻮي‬ ‫‪26%‬‬
‫‪5%‬‬
‫ﺗﺎﻳﻠﻨ ﺪ‬
‫‪6%‬‬
‫ﭘﺮو‬
‫ﺳﻨﮕﺎﭘﻮر‬
‫‪12%‬‬ ‫ﭼﻴﻦ‬
‫‪21%‬‬
‫‪14%‬‬

‫ﺷﻜﻞ ‪ -٩‬ﺳﻬﻢ ﺻﺎﺩﺭﺍﺕ ﻫﺮﻳﻚ ﺍﺯ ﺻﺎﺩﺭ ﻛﻨﻨﺪﮔﺎﻥ ﻋﻤﺪﻩ ﻗﻠﻊ ﺧﺎﻟﺺ ﺩﺭ ﺩﻧﻴﺎ‬

‫ﺑﺮزﻳﻞ ﺑﻮﻟﻴﻮي‬ ‫ﺳﺎﻳﺮ آﺸﻮرهﺎ‬

‫ﭼﻴﻦ‬
‫‪5% 4%‬‬ ‫‪6%‬‬
‫ﺗﺎﻳﻠﻨ ﺪ‬ ‫‪28%‬‬

‫‪7%‬‬

‫ﻣﺎﻟﺰي‬
‫‪12%‬‬
‫ﭘﺮو‬
‫اﻧﺪوﻧﺰي‬
‫‪13%‬‬
‫‪25%‬‬
‫ﺷﻜﻞ ‪ -١٠‬ﺳﻬﻢ ﻭﺍﺭﺩﺍﺕ ﻫﺮﻳﻚ ﺍﺯ ﻭﺍﺭﺩ ﻛﻨﻨﺪﮔﺎﻥ ﻋﻤﺪﻩ ﻗﻠﻊ ﺧﺎﻟﺺ ﺩﺭ ﺩﻧﻴﺎ‬
‫ﺍﻳﺮﺍﻥ ﺩﺭ ﺭﺩﻩ ﺑﻴﺴﺖ ﻭ ﺳﻮﻡ ﺟﻬﺎﻧﻲ ﻗﺮﺍﺭ ﺩﺍﺭﺩ‬

‫‪٨‬‬
‫ﺩﺍﻧﺸﮕﺎﻩ ﺗﺮﺑﻴﺖ ﻣﺪﺭﺱ‪ ١٤ - ١٢ ،‬ﺑﻬﻤﻦ ‪١٣٨٣‬‬ ‫ﮐﻨﻔﺮﺍﻧﺲ ﻣﻬﻨﺪﺳﯽ ﻣﻌﺪﻥ ﺍﻳﺮﺍﻥ‪٨٣-‬‬

‫ﻣﻴﺰﺍﻥ ﺻﺎﺩﺭﺍﺕ ﻗﻠﻊ ﺁﻟﻴﺎﮊﻱ ﺩﺭ ﺣﺪﻭﺩ ‪ ٣٣/٤‬ﻫﺰﺍﺭﺗﻦ ﺩﺭ ﺳﺎﻝ ﺍﺳﺖ ﻛﻪ ﺑﺎ ﺭﺷﺪ ‪ ١١/٢‬ﺩﺭﺻﺪ ﺩﺭ ﻫﺮ ﺳﺎﻝ ﺩﺭ‬
‫ﺣﺎﻝ ﺍﻓﺰﺍﻳﺶ ﺍﺳﺖ‪ .‬ﻛﺸﻮﺭﻫﺎﻱ ﭼﻴﻦ‪ ،‬ﻣﺎﻟﺰﻱ‪ ،‬ﺁﻣﺮﻳﻜﺎ‪ ،‬ﺍﻧﮕﻠﻴﺲ ﻭ ﺳﻨﮕﺎﭘﻮﺭ ﺩﺭ ﻣﺠﻤﻮﻉ ﺑﺎ ﺍﺧﺘﺼﺎﺹ ﺑﻴﺶ ﺍﺯ ‪٨٣‬‬
‫ﺩﺭﺻﺪ ﺍﺯ ﺻﺎﺩﺭﺍﺕ‪ ،‬ﺑﺰﺭﮔﺘﺮﻳﻦ ﺻﺎﺩﺭ ﻛﻨﻨﺪﮔﺎﻥ ﺍﻳﻦ ﻣﺤﺼﻮﻝ ﺩﺭ ﺩﻧﻴﺎ ﻫﺴﺘﻨﺪ‪ .‬ﻣﻴﺰﺍﻥ ﻭﺍﺭﺩﺍﺕ ﻗﻠﻊ ﺁﻟﻴﺎﮊﻱ ﺩﻧﻴﺎ‬
‫‪ ٤٠٨٣٠‬ﺗﻦ ﺩﺭ ﺳﺎﻝ ﺍﺳﺖ ﻛﻪ ﺑﺎ ﻧﺮﺥ ‪ ٩‬ﺩﺭﺻﺪ ﺩﺭ ﺳﺎﻝ ﺍﻓﺰﺍﻳﺶ ﻣﻲﻳﺎﺑﺪ‪ .‬ﻛﺸﻮﺭﻫﺎﻱ ﻫﻨﮓﻛﻨﮓ‪ ،‬ﺁﻣﺮﻳﻜﺎ‪ ،‬ﮊﺍﭘﻦ‪،‬‬
‫ﻣﺎﻟﺰﻱ‪ ،‬ﭼﻴﻦ‪ ،‬ﺗﺎﻳﻮﺍﻥ‪ ،‬ﻛﺎﻧﺎﺩﺍ ﻭ ﺑﻠﮋﻳﻚ ﻧﻴﺰ ﺑﻴﺶ ﺍﺯ ‪ ٧٢‬ﺩﺭﺻﺪ ﺍﺯ ﻛﻞ ﻭﺍﺭﺩﺍﺕ ﺍﻳﻦ ﻣﺤﺼﻮﻝ ﺭﺍ ﺑﻪ ﺧﻮﺩ ﺍﺧﺘﺼﺎﺹ‬
‫ﺩﺍﺩﻩﺍﻧﺪ‪ .‬ﺍﻳﺮﺍﻥ ﻭﺍﺭﺩ ﻛﻨﻨﺪﻩ ﻗﻠﻊ ﺁﻟﻴﺎﮊﻱ ﻣﺤﺴﻮﺏ ﻣﻲﺷﻮﺩ ﻭ ﺩﺭ ﺣﺎﻝ ﺣﺎﺿﺮ ﺣﺪﻭﺩ ‪ ٤٠‬ﺗﻦ ﺩﺭ ﺳﺎﻝ ﻭﺍﺭﺩﺍﺕ ﺩﺍﺭﺩ‪ .‬ﺩﺭ‬
‫ﺷﻜﻞﻫﺎﻱ ‪ ١١‬ﻭ ‪ ١٢‬ﺑﻪ ﺗﺮﺗﻴﺐ ﺳﻬﻢ ﻫﺮﻳﻚ ﺍﺯ ﻛﺸﻮﺭﻫﺎﻱ ﺻﺎﺩﺭ ﻛﻨﻨﺪﻩ ﻭ ﻭﺍﺭﺩ ﻛﻨﻨﺪﻩ ﻗﻠﻊ ﺁﻟﻴﺎﮊﻱ ﺩﺭ ﺩﻧﻴﺎ ﻧﺸﺎﻥ‬
‫ﺩﺍﺩﻩ ﺷﺪﻩ ﺍﺳﺖ‪.‬‬

‫ﺳﺎﻳﺮ آﺸﻮرهﺎ‬
‫‪17%‬‬
‫ﭼﻴﻦ‬
‫ﺳﻨﮕﺎﭘﻮر‬
‫‪46%‬‬
‫‪9%‬‬

‫اﻧﮕﻠﻴﺲ‬
‫‪9%‬‬
‫ﺁﻣﺮﻳﻜﺎ‬ ‫ﻣﺎﻟﺰي‬
‫‪9%‬‬ ‫‪10%‬‬

‫ﺷﻜﻞ‪ -١١‬ﺳﻬﻢ ﺻﺎﺩﺭﺍﺕ ﻫﺮﻳﻚ ﺍﺯ ﺻﺎﺩﺭ ﻛﻨﻨﺪﮔﺎﻥ ﻋﻤﺪﻩ ﻗﻠﻊ ﺁﻟﻴﺎﮊﻱ ﺩﺭ ﺩﻧﻴﺎ‬

‫هﻨﮓآﻨﮓ‬
‫ﺳﺎﻳﺮ آﺸﻮرهﺎ‬
‫‪15%‬‬
‫‪27%‬‬ ‫ﺁﻣﺮﻳﻜﺎ‬
‫‪11%‬‬

‫ﺑﻠﮋﻳ ﻚ‬
‫ژاﭘﻦ‬
‫‪5%‬‬
‫آﺎﻧﺎدا‬ ‫‪11%‬‬
‫ﺗﺎﻳﻮان‬ ‫ﻣﺎﻟﺰي‬
‫‪6%‬‬ ‫ﭼﻴﻦ‬
‫‪7%‬‬ ‫‪10%‬‬
‫‪8%‬‬
‫ﺷﻜﻞ‪ -١٢‬ﺳﻬﻢ ﻭﺍﺭﺩﺍﺕ ﻫﺮﻳﻚ ﺍﺯ ﻭﺍﺭﺩﺍﺕ ﻛﻨﻨﺪﮔﺎﻥ ﻋﻤﺪﻩ ﻗﻠﻊ ﺁﻟﻴﺎﮊﻱ ﺩﺭ ﺩﻧﻴﺎﺍﻳﺮﺍﻥ ﺩﺭ ﺭﺗﺒﻪ ﺳﻲ ﻭ ﺷﺸﻢ ﺟﻬﺎﻧﻲ‬
‫ﻗﺮﺍﺭ ﺩﺍﺭﺩ‬

‫‪٩‬‬
‫ﺩﺍﻧﺸﮕﺎﻩ ﺗﺮﺑﻴﺖ ﻣﺪﺭﺱ‪ ١٤ - ١٢ ،‬ﺑﻬﻤﻦ ‪١٣٨٣‬‬ ‫ﮐﻨﻔﺮﺍﻧﺲ ﻣﻬﻨﺪﺳﯽ ﻣﻌﺪﻥ ﺍﻳﺮﺍﻥ‪٨٣-‬‬

‫ﻣﺒﺎﺩﻻﺕ ﺿﺎﻳﻌﺎﺕ ﻭ ﻗﺮﺍﺿﻪ ﻗﻠﻊ ﺑﻪ ﻃﻮﺭ ﻣﺘﻮﺳﻂ ﺩﺭ ﺳﺎﻝﻫﺎﻱ ﺍﺧﻴﺮ ﺣﺪﻭﺩ ‪ ١٠‬ﺩﺭﺻﺪ ﻣﻴﺰﺍﻥ ﻣﺒﺎﺩﻻﺕ ﻗﻠﻊ‬
‫ﺧﺎﻟﺺ ﺍﻭﻟﻴﻪ ﺑﻮﺩﻩ ﺍﺳﺖ‪ .‬ﻣﻴﺰﺍﻥ ﻓﻌﻠﻲ ﻣﺒﺎﺩﻻﺕ ﺍﻳﻦ ﻣﺤﺼﻮﻝ ﺩﺭ ﺣﺪﻭﺩ ‪ ١٩‬ﻫﺰﺍﺭ ﺗﻦ ﺍﺳﺖ‪ .‬ﺻﺎﺩﺭ ﻛﻨﻨﺪﮔﺎﻥ ﻋﻤﺪﻩ‬
‫ﺿﺎﻳﻌﺎﺕ ﻗﻠﻊ‪ ،‬ﻛﺸﻮﺭﻫﺎﻱ ﺁﻣﺮﻳﻜﺎ‪ ،‬ﺍﻧﮕﻠﻴﺲ‪ ،‬ﻓﺮﺍﻧﺴﻪ‪ ،‬ﺁﻟﻤﺎﻥ‪ ،‬ﮊﺍﭘﻦ ﻭ ﺁﻓﺮﻳﻘﺎﻱ ﺟﻨﻮﺑﻲ ﻫﺴﺘﻨﺪ‪ .‬ﻛﺸﻮﺭﻫﺎﻱ ﺁﻣﺮﻳﻜﺎ‪،‬‬
‫ﻛﺎﻧﺎﺩﺍ‪ ،‬ﺍﺳﭙﺎﻧﻴﺎ‪ ،‬ﺑﻠﮋﻳﻚ‪ ،‬ﻫﻠﻨﺪ‪ ،‬ﺁﻟﻤﺎﻥ‪ ،‬ﻓﺮﺍﻧﺴﻪ ﻭ ﺳﻨﮕﺎﭘﻮﺭ ﻧﻴﺰ ﻭﺍﺭﺩ ﻛﻨﻨﺪﮔﺎﻥ ﺍﺻﻠﻲ ﺍﻳﻦ ﻣﺤﺼﻮﻝ ﻣﺤﺴﻮﺏ ﻣﻲﺷﻮﻧﺪ‪.‬‬

‫‪ -٥‬ﻗﻴﻤﺖ ﻗﻠﻊ ﺩﺭ ﺩﻧﻴﺎ‬

‫ﻗﻴﻤﺖ ﻛﻨﺴﺎﻧﺘﺮﻩ ﻗﻠﻊ ﺩﺭ ﺩﻧﻴﺎ ﺑﺮ ﻣﺒﻨﺎﻱ ﻣﺤﺘﻮﻱ ﺁﻥ ﺩﺭ ﺩﻫﻪ ﮔﺬﺷﺘﻪ ﺑﻪ ﻃﻮﺭ ﻣﺘﻮﺳﻂ ﺍﺯ ‪ ٤٢٠٢‬ﺩﻻﺭ ﺑﺮ ﺗﻦ ﺑﻪ‬
‫‪ ٤٠٦٣‬ﺩﻻﺭ ﺑﺮ ﺗﻦ ﻛﺎﻫﺶ ﻳﺎﻓﺘﻪ ﺍﺳﺖ‪ .‬ﻗﻴﻤﺖ ﻗﻠﻊ ﺧﺎﻟﺺ ﻧﻴﺰ ﺍﺯ ‪ ٥٣٧٦‬ﺩﻻﺭ ﺑﺮ ﺗﻦ ﺑﻪ ‪ ٥٣٣٣‬ﺩﻻﺭ ﺑﺮ ﺗﻦ ﻛﺎﻫﺶ‬
‫ﻳﺎﻓﺘﻪ ﺍﺳﺖ‪ .‬ﻗﻴﻤﺖ ﻗﻠﻊ ﺁﻟﻴﺎﮊﻱ ﺩﺭ ﻫﻤﻴﻦ ﺩﻭﺭﻩ ﺯﻣﺎﻧﻲ ﺍﺯ ‪ ٣٧٤٨‬ﺩﻻﺭ ﺑﺮ ﺗﻦ ﺑﻪ ‪ ٣٩١٢‬ﺩﻻﺭ ﺑﺮ ﺗﻦ ﺍﻓﺰﺍﻳﺶ ﻳﺎﻓﺘﻪ‬
‫ﺍﺳﺖ‪ .‬ﻫﻤﭽﻨﻴﻦ ﻗﻴﻤﺖ ﺿﺎﻳﻌﺎﺕ ﻭ ﻗﺮﺍﺿﻪ ﻗﻠﻊ ﻧﻴﺰ ﺍﺯ ‪ ١١١٧‬ﺩﻻﺭ ﺑﺮ ﺗﻦ ﺑﻪ ‪ ٩٨٢‬ﺩﻻﺭ ﺑﺮ ﺗﻦ ﻛﺎﻫﺶ ﻳﺎﻓﺘﻪ ﺍﺳﺖ‪.‬‬

‫‪ -٦‬ﻣﺴﺎﺋﻞ ﺯﻳﺴﺖ ﻣﺤﻴﻄﻲ ﻗﻠﻊ‬

‫ﻗﻠﻊ ﺑﻪ ﻋﻨﻮﺍﻥ ﻣﺎﺩﻩﺍﻱ ﺧﻄﺮﻧﺎﻙ ﻭ ﺳﻤﻲ ﺩﺭ ﻟﻴﺴﺖ ﻣﻮﺍﺩ ﺧﻄﺮﻧﺎﻙ ﺳﺎﺯﻣﺎﻥﻫﺎﻱ ﺍﻳﻤﻨﻲ ﻭ ﻣﺤﻴﻂ ﺯﻳﺴﺘﻲ ﺟﻬﺎﻥ‬
‫ﻗﺮﺍﺭ ﺩﺍﺭﺩ‪ .‬ﺗﺮﻛﻴﺒﺎﺕ ﺁﻟﻲ ﻗﻠﻊﺩﺍﺭ ﻣﻌﻤﻮ ﹰﻻ ﻧﺴﺒﺖ ﺑﻪ ﺗﺮﻛﻴﺒﺎﺕ ﻏﻴﺮ ﺁﻟﻲ ﺁﻥ ﺳﻤﻲﺗﺮ ﺍﺳﺖ‪ .‬ﺍﻳﻦ ﻓﻠﺰ ﺑﺮﺍﻱ ﺑﺪﻥ ﺍﻧﺴﺎﻥ‬
‫ﺿﺮﻭﺭﻱ ﻧﻴﺴﺖ ﻭﻟﻲ ﻣﻘﺎﺩﻳﺮ ﻛﻤﻲ ﺍﺯ ﺁﻥ ﺩﺭ ﺑﺪﻥ ﻳﺎﻓﺖ ﻣﻲ ﺷﻮﺩ ﻛﻪ ﺷﺎﻳﺪ ﻳﻜﻲ ﺍﺯ ﺩﻻﻳﻞ ﺁﻥ ﻭﺟﻮﺩ ﻗﻠﻊ ﺩﺭ ﻗﻮﻃﻲﻫﺎ‬
‫ﻭ ﻓﻮﻳﻞﻫﺎﻱ ﻏﺬﺍﻳﻲ ﺑﺎﺷﺪ‪ .‬ﺗﺠﻤﻌﺎﺕ ﺳﻤﻲ ﻗﻠﻊ ﺩﺭ ﺑﺪﻥ‪ ،‬ﺩﺭ ﺍﺳﺘﺨﻮﺍﻧﻬﺎ‪ ،‬ﻗﻠﺐ ﻭ ﻛﺒﺪ ﻳﺎﻓﺖ ﻣﻲﺷﻮﺩ‪ .‬ﻋﻮﺍﺭﺽ ﺗﻨﻔﺴﻲ‬
‫ﺗﺮﻛﻴﺒﺎﺕ ﻗﻠﻊﺩﺍﺭ ﺳﻮﺯﺵ ﺑﻴﻨﻲ‪ ،‬ﮔﻠﻮ ﻭ ﺭﻳﻪ ﻭ ﺍﻳﺠﺎﺩ ﺳﺮﻓﻪ ﻭ ﺳﺮﺩﺭﺩ ﺍﺳﺖ‪ .‬ﺩﺭ ﺻﻮﺭﺗﻲ ﻛﻪ ﻣﻴﺰﺍﻥ ﺍﻳﻦ ﻓﻠﺰ ﺩﺭ ﻣﺤﻴﻂ‬
‫ﻭ ﺩﺭ ﻣﺠﺎﻭﺭﺕ ﺍﻧﺴﺎﻥ ﺑﻴﺶ ﺍﺯ ﺣﺪ ﺑﺎﺷﺪ ﻣﻲﺗﻮﺍﻧﺪ ﻣﻮﺟﺐ ﺍﺧﺘﻼﻝ ﺩﺭ ﺳﻴﺴﺘﻢ ﻋﺼﺒﻲ ﮔﺮﺩﺩ‪.‬‬

‫‪ -٧‬ﻧﺘﻴﺠﻪﮔﻴﺮﻱ ﻭ ﭘﻴﺸﻨﻬﺎﺩﺍﺕ‬
‫ﻛﻞ ﺫﺧﺎﻳﺮ ﻗﻠﻊ ﺩﻧﻴﺎ ‪ ٧/٤‬ﻣﻴﻠﻴﻮﻥ ﺗﻦ ﺗﺨﻤﻴﻦ ﺯﺩﻩ ﺷﺪﻩ ﺍﺳﺖ ﻛﻪ ‪ ٦٠‬ﺩﺭﺻﺪ ﺍﻳﻦ ﺫﺧﺎﻳﺮ ﺩﺭ ﺁﺳﻴﺎ ﻭ ‪ ٢٢‬ﺩﺭﺻﺪ‬
‫ﺁﻥ ﺩﺭ ﺁﻣﺮﻳﻜﺎﻱ ﺟﻨﻮﺑﻲ ﻭﺍﻗﻊ ﺍﺳﺖ‪ .‬ﻛﺸﻮﺭﻫﺎﻱ ﭼﻴﻦ‪ ،‬ﻣﺎﻟﺰﻱ‪ ،‬ﺑﺮﺯﻳﻞ ﻭ ﺗﺎﻳﻠﻨﺪ ﺩﺍﺭﺍﻱ ﺑﻴﺸﺘﺮﻳﻦ ﺫﺧﻴﺮﻩ ﻗﻠﻊ ﺩﺭ ﺩﻧﻴﺎ‬
‫ﻫﺴﺘﻨﺪ‪ .‬ﻣﻴﺰﺍﻥ ﺗﻮﻟﻴﺪ ﺳﺎﻻﻧﻪ ﻛﻨﺴﺎﻧﺘﺮﻩ ﻗﻠﻊ ﺩﺭ ﺩﻧﻴﺎ ﻧﻴﺰ ‪ ٢٣١‬ﻫﺰﺍﺭﺗﻦ ﻣﺤﺘﻮﻱ ﻗﻠﻊ ﺍﺳﺖ ﻛﻪ ﻛﺸﻮﺭﻫﺎﻱ ﺍﻧﺪﻭﻧﺰﻱ‪،‬‬
‫ﭼﻴﻦ‪ ،‬ﭘﺮﻭ‪ ،‬ﺑﻮﻟﻴﻮﻱ ﻭ ﺑﺮﺯﻳﻞ ﺣﺪﻭﺩ‪ ٩٠‬ﺩﺭﺻﺪ ﺍﺯ ﻛﻞ ﺗﻮﻟﻴﺪ ﺍﻳﻦ ﻣﺤﺼﻮﻻﺕ ﺭﺍ ﺑﻪ ﺧﻮﺩ ﺍﺧﺘﺼﺎﺹ ﺩﺍﺩﻩﺍﻧﺪ‪ .‬ﻣﻴﺰﺍﻥ‬
‫ﻣﺒﺎﺩﻻﺕ ﻛﻨﺴﺎﻧﺘﺮﻩ ﻗﻠﻊ ﺩﺭ ﺣﺪ ﭘﺎﻳﻴﻦ ﺍﺳﺖ ﻭ ﻫﻤﻴﻦ ﻛﺸﻮﺭﻫﺎ ﺑﻌﻼﻭﻩ ﺗﺎﻳﻠﻨﺪ ﺑﻴﺶ ﺍﺯ ‪ ٩٤‬ﺩﺭﺻﺪ ﺍﺯ ﻛﻞ ﺗﻮﻟﻴﺪ ‪٢٦١‬‬
‫ﻫﺰﺍﺭﺗﻨﻲ ﻗﻠﻊ ﺧﺎﻟﺺ ﺭﺍ ﺑﻪ ﺧﻮﺩﺍﺧﺘﺼﺎﺹ ﺩﺍﺩﻩﺍﻧﺪ‪ .‬ﻣﻴﺰﺍﻥ ﻣﺒﺎﺩﻻﺕ ﻗﻠﻊ ﺧﺎﻟﺺ ﺑﻴﺶ ﺍﺯ ‪ ٨٥‬ﺩﺭﺻﺪ ﺍﺯ ﻛﻞ ﺗﻮﻟﻴﺪ ﺁﻥ‬
‫ﺍﺳﺖ‪ .‬ﻛﺸﻮﺭﻫﺎﻱ ﺍﻧﺪﻭﻧﺰﻱ‪ ،‬ﺳﻨﮕﺎﭘﻮﺭ‪ ،‬ﭼﻴﻦ‪ ،‬ﭘﺮﻭ‪ ،‬ﺗﺎﻳﻠﻨﺪ ﻭ ﺑﻮﻟﻴﻮﻱ ﺑﺎ ﺍﺧﺘﺼﺎﺹ ‪ ٨٣‬ﺩﺭﺻﺪ ﺑﻪ ﺗﺮﺗﻴﺐ ﺑﺰﺭﮔﺘﺮﻳﻦ‬
‫ﺻﺎﺩﺭﻛﻨﻨﺪﮔﺎﻥ ﻭ ﻛﺸﻮﺭﻫﺎﻱ ﺁﻣﺮﻳﻜﺎ‪ ،‬ﮊﺍﭘﻦ‪ ،‬ﺁﻟﻤﺎﻥ‪ ،‬ﺗﺎﻳﻮﺍﻥ‪ ،‬ﺳﻨﮕﺎﭘﻮﺭ ﻭ ﻛﺮﻩﺟﻨﻮﺑﻲ ﻧﻴﺰ ﺑﺎ ﺍﺧﺘﺼﺎﺹ‪ ٧٠‬ﺩﺭﺻﺪ‬
‫ﺑﺰﺭﮔﺘﺮﻳﻦ ﻭﺍﺭﺩ ﻛﻨﻨﺪﮔﺎﻥ ﻗﻠﻊ ﺧﺎﻟﺺ ﺩﺭ ﺩﻧﻴﺎ ﻫﺴﺘﻨﺪ‪ .‬ﺍﻳﺮﺍﻥ ﻗﻠﻊ ﺧﺎﻟﺺ ﻭ ﻗﻠﻊ ﺁﻟﻴﺎﮊﻱ ﻭﺍﺭﺩ ﻣﻲﻛﻨﺪ‪ .‬ﻣﻴﺰﺍﻥ ﻭﺍﺭﺩﺍﺕ‬

‫‪١٠‬‬
‫ﺩﺍﻧﺸﮕﺎﻩ ﺗﺮﺑﻴﺖ ﻣﺪﺭﺱ‪ ١٤ - ١٢ ،‬ﺑﻬﻤﻦ ‪١٣٨٣‬‬ ‫ﮐﻨﻔﺮﺍﻧﺲ ﻣﻬﻨﺪﺳﯽ ﻣﻌﺪﻥ ﺍﻳﺮﺍﻥ‪٨٣-‬‬

‫ﻗﻠﻊ ﺧﺎﻟﺺ ﻛﺸﻮﺭ ﺍﺯ ‪ ٣٠٠‬ﺗﻦ ﺩﺭ ﺳﺎﻝ ‪ ١٩٩٣‬ﺑﻪ ‪ ١١٠٠‬ﺗﻦ ﺩﺭ ﺳﺎﻝ ‪ ٢٠٠٢‬ﺍﻓﺰﺍﻳﺶ ﻳﺎﻓﺘﻪ ﺍﺳﺖ‪ .‬ﻫﻤﭽﻨﻴﻦ ﺍﻳﺮﺍﻥ‬
‫ﺩﺭ ﺣﺎﻝ ﺣﺎﺿﺮ ﺳﺎﻻﻧﻪ ﺣﺪﻭﺩ ‪ ٤٠‬ﺗﻦ ﻗﻠﻊ ﺁﻟﻴﺎﮊﻱ ﻭﺍﺭﺩ ﻣﻲﻛﻨﺪ‪.‬‬
‫ﺍﺯ ﺁﻧﺠﺎﻳﻲ ﻛﻪ ﻗﻠﻊ ﻓﻠﺰﻱ ﻧﺴﺒﺘ ﹰﺎ ﮔﺮﺍﻥ ﻗﻴﻤﺖ ﻣﺤﺴﻮﺏ ﻣﻲﺷﻮﺩ‪ ،‬ﺑﺎ ﺗﻮﺟﻪ ﺭﻭﻧﺪ ﺻﻌﻮﺩﻱ ﻭﺍﺭﺩﺍﺕ ﻗﻠﻊ ﺧﺎﻟﺺ‬
‫ﻛﺸﻮﺭ ﻭ ﻣﺤﺪﻭﺩ ﺑﻮﺩﻥ ﺗﻮﻟﻴﺪ ﺍﻳﻦ ﻓﻠﺰ ﺩﺭ ﭼﻨﺪ ﻛﺸﻮﺭ ﭘﻴﺸﻨﻬﺎﺩ ﻣﻲﺷﻮﺩ ﻛﻪ ﻛﻠﻴﻪ ﻣﻨﺎﻃﻖ ﺍﻣﻴﺪﺑﺨﺶ ﻛﺸﻮﺭ ﺍﺯ ﻧﻈﺮ‬
‫ﭘﺘﺎﻧﺴﻴﻞ ﻗﻠﻊ ﻣﻮﺭﺩ ﺑﺮﺭﺳﻲ ﻭ ﻋﻤﻠﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻛﺘﺸﺎﻑ ﻗﺮﺍﺭ ﮔﻴﺮﺩ ﻭ ﺩﺭ ﺻﻮﺭﺕ ﻣﺜﺒﺖ ﺑﻮﺩﻥ ﻧﺘﺎﻳﺞ ﺍﻳﻦ ﻣﺮﺍﺣﻞ ﻣﻲﺗﻮﺍﻥ‬
‫ﻧﺴﺒﺖ ﺑﻪ ﺍﻧﺘﻘﺎﻝ ﻭ ﺍﺣﺪﺍﺙ ﺻﻨﻌﺖ ﺗﻮﻟﻴﺪ ﻓﻠﺰ ﺍﻗﺪﺍﻡ ﻧﻤﻮﺩ‪.‬‬

‫‪ -٨‬ﺗﻘﺪﻳﺮ ﻭ ﺗﺸﻜﺮ‬
‫ﺑﺪﻭﻥ ﺷﻚ ﺍﻧﺠﺎﻡ ﻣﻄﺎﻟﻌﺎﺕ ﺣﺎﺿﺮ ﺑﺪﻭﻥ ﻣﺴﺎﻋﺪﺕ ﺟﻨﺎﺏ ﺁﻗﺎﻱ ﺩﻛﺘﺮ ﺑﺼﻴﺮﻱ ﻭ ﻫﻤﻜﺎﺭﺍﻥ ﻣﺤﺘﺮﻡ ﺍﻳﺸﺎﻥ ﺩﺭ ﻭﺯﺍﺭﺕ‬
‫ﺻﻨﺎﻳﻊ ﻭ ﻣﻌﺎﺩﻥ ﻣﻤﻜﻦ ﻧﺒﻮﺩ ﻛﻪ ﺑﺪﻳﻨﻮﺳﻴﻠﻪ ﺍﺯ ﺍﻳﺸﺎﻥ ﺗﺸﻜﺮ ﻣﻲﺷﻮﺩ‪.‬‬
‫‪ -٩‬ﻣﺮﺍﺟﻊ‬
‫]‪ [١‬ﮔﺮﻭﻩ ﺗﻠﻔﻴﻖ ﻭ ﻣﺪﻝﺳﺎﺯﻱ ﺳﺎﺯﻣﺎﻥ ﺯﻣﻴﻦﺷﻨﺎﺳﻲ ﻭ ﺍﻛﺘﺸﺎﻓﺎﺕ ﻣﻌﺪﻧﻲ ﻛﺸﻮﺭ‪ “ ،(١٣٧٩) ،‬ﻣﺮﻭﺭﻱ ﺑﺮ ﻣﻮﻗﻌﻴـﺖ‬
‫ﻗﻠﻊ ﻭ ﺗﻨﮕﺴﺘﻦ ﺩ ﺭ ﺍﻳﺮﺍﻥ ﻭ ﺟﻬﺎﻥ”‪.‬‬
‫‪[٢] Roskill Information Services Ltd., (1995), “The Economics of Tin”, Seventh Edition, London‬‬
‫‪SW9 OJA.‬‬
‫‪[٣] Stanly, E., (1999), “Environmental chemistry” Manahan, seventh edition.‬‬
‫‪[٤] British Geological Survey, (2004), «World Mineral Statistics 1998-2002», Key worth,‬‬
‫‪Nottingham NG12 5GG.‬‬
‫‪[٥] “Handbook of world Mineral Trade Statistics, 1993-1998”, (2000), United Nation‬‬
‫‪Publication, New York and Geneva.‬‬
‫‪[٦] British Geological Survey, (2003), “World Mineral Statistics 1997-2001”, Key worth,‬‬
‫‪Nottingham NG12 5GG.‬‬
‫‪[٧] “Handbook of world Mineral Trade Statistics, 1995-2000”, (2002), United Nation Publication,‬‬
‫‪New York and Geneva.‬‬

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