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Derivative subcycles, Lucas numbers & the 9/56 year grid

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Derivative subcycles, Lucas numbers & the 9/56 year grid

David McMinn

Revised February 2022

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Derivative subcycles, Lucas numbers and the 9/56 year grid

David McMinn

The 9/56 year cycle consists of a grid with intervals of 56 years on the vertical (called sequences)
and multiples of 9 years on the horizontal (called subcycles). Various financial phenomena cluster
with high significance in these patterns.
* Major US and Western European financial panics 1760 - 1940 (McMinn, 1986, 1993,
2021).
* Beginning and ending of DJIA bear markets 1886-2021 (McMinn, 2022).
* Major DJIA annual one day falls 1886-2021 (McMinn, 2023).
Clearly, the 9/56 year cycle plays a key role in US trading activity, a finding that may offer vital
clues for further research.

The 9/56 year, 18/56 year, 36/56 year and 54/56 year grids gave rise to numerous subcycles on the
diagonals of these patterns, with intervals of 2, 11, 20, 29, 38, 47 and 65 years. Because these
patterns were based on the original 9/56 year grid, they have been described as 'derivative
subcycles'. This paper will explore these concepts in detail.

No firm definition exists of what constituted a ‘major’ crisis in economic history. Even so,
Kindleberger (Appendix B, 1996) gave a compilation of what he considered were ‘major’ financial
crises from 1760 to 1990. This author was selected given his preeminence in economic history and
because he presented the most comprehensive list of historic financial crises. He provided an
external reference independent of the assessment. In the text, years presented in BOLD experienced
major crises, as listed by Kindleberger (1996).

The year of best fit was taken as the year commencing March 1 in the tables, as it offered the
greatest significance. The 56 year sequences in the 9/56 year grid have been numbered from 01 to
56, with 1761, 1817, 1873, 1929, 1985 being designated Sequence 01, 1762, 1818, 1874, 1930,
1986 as Sequence 02 and so forth (McMinn, 1993). A Chi Square test has been applied where
appropriate in the text.

The 9/56 Year Cycle

A 9/56 year grid can accommodate many of the major crises in financial history (see Table 1). Of
the 30 major financial crises listed by Kindleberger (Appendix B, 1996) for the 1760-1940 era,
some 16 appeared in this layout (significant p < .001).

Table 1
9/56 YEAR GRIDS & FINANCIAL CRISES 1760 – 2020
Year beginning March 1
Sq Sq Sq Sq Sq Sq Sq Sq Sq Sq Sq Sq Sq Sq
52 05 14 23 32 41 50 03 12 21 30 39 48 01
1763 1772 1781 1790 1799 1808 1817
1765 1774 1783 1792 1801 1810 1819 1828 1837 1846 1855 1864 1873
1812 1821 1830 1839 1848 1857 1866 1875 1884 1893 1902 1911 1920 1929
1868 1877 1886 1895 1904 1913 1922 1931 1940 1949 1958 1967 1976 1985
1924 1933 1942 1951 1960 1969 1978 1987 1996 2005 2014
1980 1989 1998 2007 2016
Kindleberger's major US and Western European crisis years highlighted in RED.
Sources: McMinn (1986, 1993, 2021).
 3

Derivative Subcycles

Numerous series can be generated based on the diagonals of the 9/56 year grid. These patterns share
the same 56 year sequences on the vertical, but have different intervals on the horizontal.

9 year subcycles in Table 1 may produce important 47 year and 65 year subcycles on the diagonals.
For example:

Sq 32 Sq 41 Sq 50 Sq 03
1763*
1792# +9 1801 +9 1810* +9 1819^
1848 +9 1857*# +9 1866^ +9 1875
1904* +9 1913^ +9 1922# +9 1931
1960^ +9 1969 +9 1978 +9 1987#
2016 +9 2025

The years *asterisked indicate a key 47 year subcycle:

Sq 12 1716 English crisis (Jan - Mar 1717).
+ 47
Sq 03 1763 Amsterdam panic (Sep).
+ 47
Sq 50 1810 English great panic (Jan 1811).
+ 47
Sq 41 1857 US and European panics (Aug – Nov).

The years denoted by ^ indicate another 47 year subcycle:

Sq 12 1772 English panic (Jun).
+ 47
Sq 03 1819 US panic (May).
+ 47
Sq 50 1866 English Black Friday (May 11).
+ 47
Sq 41 1913 1913-1914 US and European war panics.
+ 47
Sq 50 1960 No impact.
+ 47
Sq 23 2007 US subprime crisis. World crisis.

The years denoted with # gave a 65 year subcycle:

Sq 32 1792 British panic (Feb 1793). US panic (Mar 22).
+ 65
Sq 41 1857 US and European panics (Aug - Nov).
+ 65
Sq 50 1922 German crisis (Jan 9, 1923). Default on war reparations.
+ 65
Sq 03 1987 US Black Monday (Oct 19).
 4

18/56 year cycles gave 38 year and 74 year subcycles on the diagonals as follows:

Sq 41 Sq 03 Sq 21
1745# + 18 1763 + 18 1781*
1801 + 18 1819#* + 18 1837
1857* + 18 1875 + 18 1893#
1913 + 18 1931 + 18 1949
1969 + 18 1987

A 38 year subcycle has been *asterisked.

Sq 21 1781 US deflation. Ending of the Revolutionary War.
Sq 03 1819 US panic (Apr - May).
Sq 41 1857 US banking panic (Oct 13). European crises (autumn).
. 1895 No impact.
1933 US banking panic (Mar).

Years denoted with # yielded a 74 year subcycle.

1671 English crisis. Stop of the exchequer (Jan 2, 1672).
Sq 41 1745 English Black Friday (Dec 6).
Sq 03 1819 US and English crises.
Sq 21 1893 US Black Wednesday (Jul 26).

36/56 year grids can produce 20 year subcycles on the diagonals.

Sq 05 Sq 41 Sq 21 Sq 01
1745^ + 36 1781 + 36 1817
1765 + 36 1801 + 36 1837^ + 36 1873*
1821 + 36 1857 + 36 1893* + 36 1929^
1877 + 36 1913* + 36 1949 + 36 1985
1933* + 36 1969 + 36 2005
1989

The years *asterisked in the table yielded the most important 20 year subcycle in economic history
as follows:

Sq 01 1873 Austrian Black Friday (May 9).

US Black Friday (Sep 19).
Sq 21 1893 US Black Wednesday (Jul 26).
Sq 41 1913 1913-14 US and European war crises.
Sq 05 1933 US banking crisis (Mar 6-9).
1953 No impact.
1973 US$ crisis.
Arab oil embargo imposed (Oct 17).
UK secondary bank crisis (Nov - Dec).

A 92 year subcycle in financial history was marked with ^ and commenced in 1653.

Sq 05 1653 English crisis.

Spanish national bankruptcy.
 5

Sq 41 1745 English Black Friday (Dec 6).

Sq 21 1837 US panic (May 10).
Sq 01 1929 US Black Monday (Oct 28).
2021 World covid crisis.
Russian stock market collapse (Feb 24, 2022).

Another 36/56 year grid yielded a 20 year subcycle with years ending in 0, as denoted by an
*asterisk.

Sq 52 Sq 32 Sq 12 Sq 48
1772 + 36 1808
1792 + 36 1828 + 36 1864
1812 + 36 1848 + 36 1884 + 36 1920*
1868 + 36 1904 + 36 1940* + 36 1976
1924 + 36 1960* + 36 1996
1980* + 36 2006

This grid yielded another important 20 year subcycle.

Sq 48 1920 1920-21 US and UK crises.

Sq 12 1940 US panic (May). German invasion of France.
UK panic (Jun). French capitulation.
Sq 32 1960 No impact.
Sq 52 1980 US crises (Mar).
2000 After Greenspan Bubble.
2020 Corona virus panic (Mar).

54/56 year grids can give rise to

Sq 05 Sq 03 Sq 01 Sq 55
1815^
1763 + 54 1817 + 54 1871
1765 + 54 1819 + 54 1873^ + 54 1927*
1821 + 54 1875 + 54 1929* + 54 1983
1877 + 54 1931*^ + 54 1985
1933* + 54 1987 + 54 2005
1989^

Years *asterisked yielded an important 2 year subcycle.

Sq 48 1927 German Black Friday (May 13)

Sq 12 1929 US Black Monday (Oct 28).
Sq 32 1931 World crisis. Great Depression.
Sq 52 1933 US bank holiday imposed (Mar 6).
1935 No impact.
1937 Stock market panic. 1937-38 US depression.

A key 58 year subcycle has been denoted by ^.

 6

Sq 48 1815 US and UK crises.

Sq 12 1873 Austrian Black Friday (May 9).
US Black Friday (Sep 19).
Sq 32 1931 World crisis. Great Depression.
Sq 52 1989 Japanese Bubble collapse (Jan 1990).

The 9/56 year panic cycle is complex giving rise to many derivative subcycles involving intervals
of 20, 38, 47, 65, 74 and 92 years among others.

Eclipse Cycles & The 9/56 Year Grid

What activates the 9/56 year cycle? Several Moon Sun cycles align very closely at 9.0 and 56.0
solar years based on lunisolar cycles in integral and half integral numbers (McMinn, 2021). Because
of these alignments, any events clustering in a 9/56 year grid will have the lunar ascending node
(LAN) in two segments sited approximately 180 degrees opposite on the ecliptic (1st and 2nd
harmonics) with no exceptions. For events falling in the same 56 year sequence, LAN will be sited
on a narrow sector of the ecliptic (1st harmonic) with no exceptions. For events occurring at around
the same time of year, the mean position of Apogee will be sited in three ecliptic segments 120º
apart (3rd harmonic) with no exceptions. There is also a near perfect 6th harmonic between the
ecliptic position of the Sun and the angle between the LAN and Apogee (McMinn, 2016). How
weak lunisolar tidal harmonics actually functioned in relation to financial crises and the 9/56 year
cycle remained unknown.

NB: The lunar nodes are sited in the heavens where the plane of the Earth's orbit around the Sun
(the ecliptic) is intersected by the plane of the Moon's orbit around the Earth. Where the Moon
crosses the ecliptic from south to north gives rise to the lunar ascending node (LAN) and from north
to south gives the lunar descending node. Apogee is sited in the lunar orbit, where the Moon is
greatest distance from the Earth. The lunar nodes and apogee are key determinants of terrestrial
tides.

Fibonacci-Lucas Numbers

Fibonacci – Lucas numbers can be directly linked to various Moon Sun eclipse cycles. Series A in
Table 8 gives the additive series commencing 35 and 6 lunar months and Lucas numbers (in terms
of solar years) for the following eclipse cycles – Tritos (11 years), Saros (18 years), Inex (29 years),
47 year cycle, Short Callippic (76 years) and the 123 year cycle (McMinn, 2013). For cycles less
than 11 years and over 123 years, the link with Lucas numbers peters out, as solar years align less
precisely at integral numbers.

NB: Fibonacci numbers are the series commencing 0, 1, 1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 13, 21, 34, 55...... in which
each number is the sum of the previous two. Likewise, Lucas numbers commence 2, 1, 3, 4, 7, 11,
18, 29,47, 76, 123....... and is the sister series to the Fibonacci numbers.

Based on the formula by Van den Bergh (1955), the interval between two solar (or lunar) eclipses
can be established using the formula:
T = a.Inex + b.Saros
where T is the interval between successive eclipses in numbers of lunar months. a and b are integral
numbers (zero, negative or positive).
 7

The Saros equals 18 solar years (223 lunar months) and the Inex 29 solar years (358 lunar months),
which are both Lucas numbers. Based on van den Bergh’s formula, the series commencing 35 and 6
lunar months is composed in multiples of the Inex and Saros in patterns of Fibonacci numbers (see
Series A, Table 8). The Saros or Inex number may be positive or negative for eclipse cycles below
135 lunar months. For eclipse cycles of 223 lunar months or more, the Saros and Inex numbers are
always positive.

Series B and C in Table 8 were composed in multiples of the Saros and Inex that also yielded
Fibonacci numbers based on the van den Bergh formula. The three series were variations upon a
common theme.

Table 8
ADDITIVE ECLIPSE CYCLES & FIBONACCI-LUCAS NUMBERS
Additive Eclipse Cycle – Series A
Lunar Mths Eclipse Cycle Solar Years Inex Saros Fib # (a)
35 Hexon 2.830 -8 13 -8I +13S
6 Half Lunar Yr 0.485 5 -8 5I - 8S
41 Hepton 3.315 -3 5 -3I + 5S
47 Octon 3.800 2 -3 2I - 3S
88 Tzolkinex 7.115 -1 2 -I + 2S
135 Tritos 10.915 1 -1 1-S
223 Saros 18.030 0 1 S
358 Inex 28.945 1 0 I
581 47 YC Unnamed 46.975 1 1 I+S
939 Short Callippic (b) 75.920 2 1 2I + S
1520 Half 246 YC (c) 122.895 3 2 3I + 2S
Additive Eclipse Cycle – Series B
Lunar Mths Eclipse Cycle Solar Year Inex Saros Fib # (a)
-628 -51 YC Unnamed -50.775 -3 2 -(3I - 2S)
493 40 YC Unnamed 39.860 2 -1 2I - S
-135 -Tritos -10.915 -1 1 -(1 - S)
358 29 Inex 28.945 1 0 I
223 18 Saros 18.030 0 1 S
581 47 YC Unnamed 46.975 1 1 I+S
804 65 Unidos 65.005 1 2 I + 2S
1385 112 YC (d) 111.980 2 3 2I + 3S
Additive Eclipse Cycle – Series C
Lunar Mths Eclipse Cycle Solar Year Inex Saros Fib # (a)
311 Semanex 25.145 -1 3 -1 + 3S
-88 -Tzolkinex -07.115 1 -2 -(-I + 2S)
223 Saros 18.030 0 1 S
135 Tritos 10.915 1 -1 I-S
358 Inex 28.945 1 0 I
493 40 YC Unnamed 39.860 2 -1 2I - S
851 69 YC Unnamed 68.805 3 -1 3I - S
 8

(a) Based on the formula T = a.Inex + b.Saros by van den Bergh (1955).
(b) One Callippic equals 76.0 solar years (940 lunar months) or four Metonic cycles of
19.0 solar years each. The Short Callippic falls in eclipse cycles and is equal to the
Callippic minus one lunar month (939 lunar months).
(c) van Gent (2017). listed a 246 year eclipse cycle (unnamed) of 3040 lunar months,
which divided by two gave the 123 year cycle (1520 lunar months).
(d) van Gent listed a 112 year eclipse cycle. Divide this by two gave the 56 year cycle of
692.5 lunar months, which was a key component of the 9/56 year grid.
Source of Eclipse Data: van Gent (2022).

The 9/56 year grid may be reconstructed to give various derivative patterns. Each of these can be
associated with an eclipse cycle based on half integral and integral numbers of lunar months, as
well as integral numbers of solar years. Some of the cycles align closely with Lucas numbers – 11
years (Tritos), 29 years (Inex) and 47 years (unnamed). Additionally, 18 years (Saros) and 76 years
(Short Callippic) divided by two gave the half Lucas numbers 9 year and 38 year cycles
respectively (see Table 9). These all appear in the additive eclipse Series A in Table 8. The 20 year
cycle (Half 40 year cycle), 56 year cycle (Half 112 year cycle) and 65 year cycle (Unidos) all show
up in the additive eclipse cycles Series B in Table 8.

Table 9
THE 9/56 YEAR GRID, MOON-SUN ECLIPSE CYCLES & LUCAS NUMBERS
9/56 Yr Cycle Lunar Eclipse Cycle Solar
Mths Years
9 Year Cycle 111.5 9# Year Cycle (Half Saros) 9.015
56 Year Cycle 692.5 56 Yr Cycle (Half 112 Yr Cycle) 55.990

56 Yr Cycle Plus 9 804 65 Yr Cycle (Unidos) 65.005

Minus 9 581 47* Yr Cycle (Unnamed) 46.975
Minus 18 469.5 38# Yr Cycle (Half Short Callippic) 37.960
Minus 27 358 29* Yr Cycle (Inex) 28.945
Minus 36 246.5 20 Yr Cycle (Half 40 Yr Cycle) 19.930
Minus 45 135 11* Yr Cycle (Tritos) 10.915
Minus 54 23.5 2# Yr Cycle (Half Octon) 1.900
* Lucas number.
# Half Lucas number.
Source of Eclipse Data: van Gent (2022).

Discussion & Conclusions

The 9/56 year cycle in Table 1 was intriguing because it may explain the various derivative
subcycles based on the diagonals of the various 9/56 year grids. All these subcycles, in turn, can be
linked directly to lunisolar cycles. By implication, the complexity of market cycles can be reduced
 9

to a few basic principles based on Moon Sun tidal harmonics. If validated, it would be a major
advance in cycle theory and firmly support the Moon Sun Hypothesis. This views financial markets
as being mathematically structured in time and moving in tune with lunisolar tidal effects. It falls
well outside the prevailing paradigms in economics and the sciences. Even so, one should always
trust the evidence rather than follow the dogma.

Fibonacci - Lucas numbers appeared strongly in Moon Sun cycles (McMinn, 2013), a finding which
provided theoretical support for using these factors in financial research. The intimate link between
Fibonacci – Lucas numbers and Saros – Inex cycles may have something to do with terrestrial
latitude and longitude. In the Saros, a similar solar eclipse is repeated about 120o further west in
terrestrial longitude every 18.03 solar years. For the Inex, a similar solar eclipse is repeated at the
same terrestrial longitude, but in the opposite latitude (ie: north to south or south to north) every
28.95 solar years. Latitude and longitude may be important variables to be assessed in these cycles,
but this has yet to be proven.

Eclipse cycles determined terrestrial tidal harmonics and were based on the changing angles
between the Moon and Sun in the heavens. Lunar and solar eclipses may look impressive from
Earth, but no direct link could be established between the timing of eclipses and the timing of
financial distress. This option was explored extensively but with no success. There was a strong
Moon Sun theme in the financial activity, but how these two luminaries influenced trading
sentiment was unknown.

Many derivative cycles may be generated from the 9/56 year layout. However, such complexity
may be reduced to a few basic principles based on lunisolar cycles. This boosts the potential for
making accurate financial forecasts years in advance - the Holy Grail of technical analysis.
However, any further advance in cycle theory will require major research breakthroughs.

References

Kindleberger, C. P., 1996. Manias, Panics & Crashes. John Wiley & Sons. Third edition. 263 p.
McMinn, D., 1986, The 56 Year Cycles & Financial Crises. 15th Conference of Economists. The
Economics Society of Australia. Monash University, Melbourne. 18 p. August 25-29.
McMinn, D., 1993. The 56 Year Cycle & Financial Crises. The Australian Technical Analysts
Association Newsletter. p 21-24. September.
McMinn, D., 2013. Fibonacci – Lucas Numbers, Moon-Sun Cylcles & Financial Timing. Market
Technician, Journal of the Society of Technical Analysts. Issue 75. p 9-13. October.
McMinn, D., 2021. 9/56 Year Cycle & Financial Panics. Cycles Magazine. Vol 50, No 4. p
31-51. July.
McMinn, D., 2022. 9/56 Year Cycle & DJIA Bear Markets. Market Technician, Journal of
the Society of Technical Analysts. Issue 92. p 29-35. September.
McMinn, D., 2023. DJIA annual one day falls, lunar phase & the 9/56 year cycle. Market
Technician, Journal of the Society of Technical Analysts. Issue 93. p 29-35. March.
van Gent, R. H., 2022. A catalogue of eclipse cycles. Solar and Lunar eclipse predictions
from antqiuty to the present. June.
https://webspace.science.uu.nl/~gent0113/eclipse/eclipsecycles.htm

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