Binomial distribution

Underlying Conditions/Properties of Binomial Distribution

There are 4 properties for a binomial distribution
Throwing a dart till we get a bulls eye
(1) There should be a fixed number of trials.

Bull
Bull
Bull
Not Bull Bull Bull
Not Bull Bull
Not Bull Not Bull
Not Bull
Not Bull

1st throw 2nd throw 3rd throw 4th throw 5th throw 6th throw
And so on … … 1
 Binomial distribution

Playing two football matches

(2) Two outcomes in a trial, success or failure

win

Draw
Lose
Win

Draw win Draw

Lose
Lose

win Draw
Lose

1st Match 2nd Match 2

 Binomial distribution

Playing two games of tennis

(3) Trials are independent

1st Match 2nd Match

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 Binomial distribution

Throwing a die and spinning a coin

(4) Probability of success (p) remains constant

Probability of success
is not constant

Throw a 6 Getting a head

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There are 5 underlying conditions of Binomial Distribution:
(1) There should be a fixed number of trials.
(2) Two outcomes in a trial, success or failure.
(3) Trials are independent.
(4) Probability of success (p) remains constant from trial to trial.
(5) The number of success x ( x = 0, 1, 2, …, n) in ‘n’ trials is a discreate
random variable.

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Binomial Distribution
Let, an experiment be repeated for ‘n’ independent trials each with one
of two possible outcomes, ‘success’ or ‘failure’. The number of success,
x in ‘n’ trials is a discrete random variable which can assume values
0,1,2, …, n. Let, ‘p’ be the probability of success and ‘q’ be the
probability of failure in a single trial so that p+q =1. If the probability of
success, ‘p’ remains same from trial to trial, then the distribution of x is
known as binomial distribution and its probability function is given by
p(x) = ncx pxqn-x ; x=0,1,2, … … ,n

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Properties of Binomial Distribution
1. It is a discrete probability distribution with parameters ‘n’ and ‘p’.
2. Its mean is ‘np’ and variance is ‘npq’ where mean is greater than the variance.
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3. It is a skew distribution except for p = q = .
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4. Binomial distribution tends to Poisson distribution if the number of trials, ‘n’ is
very large (n ∞) and the probability of success, ’p’is very small (p 0).
5. Binomial distribution approaches to Normal distribution if the number of
independent trials, ‘n’ is very large (n ∞) and neither the probability of
success, ’p’ nor the probability failure ‘q’ is very small.
𝑞−𝑝 𝑞−𝑝
6. Co-efficient of skewness is Sk = 𝑛𝑝𝑞 = 𝜎 and
1−6𝑝𝑞 1−6𝑝𝑞
7. Kurtosis is, 𝛽2 = 3 + 𝑛𝑝𝑞 = 𝜎2

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 Binomial Distribution
Derivation of Binomial Distribution
Let, an experiment be repeated for “n” independent trials and “p” be the probability of success
and “q” be the probability of failure in each trial. i.e.,
p(S) = p, p(F)=q and p+q = 1

If the experiment results in “x” success (S) and rest (n-x) failures (F), then the sequence of
success and failure is
S.S.S. … … … .S F.F.F. … … … .F
x-times (n-x) times
and the probability is p(S.S. … … .S. F.F. … … .F).
The events of these “x” successes and “n-x” failures are independent. According to the
multiplicative law of probability, we get ,
p(S.S. … … .S. F.F. … … .F) = p(S) P(S) … … p(S) × p(F)P(F) … … p(F)
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 Binomial Distribution
Derivation of Binomial Distribution
p(S.S. … … .S. F.F. … … .F) = p(S) P(S) … … p(S) × p(F)P(F) … … p(F)
x-times (n-x) times
= p.p. … … p ×q.q. … … q
x-times (n-x) times
= pxqn-x
∴The probability of a particular sequence is pxqn-x
In the experiment, “x” successes out of “n” independent trials can happen in ncx mutually
exclusive ways.
∴ The probability p(x) of x successes is, therefore, given by,
p(x) = pxqn-x + … … … +pxqn-x ; nc
x times
∴p(x) = ncxpxqn-x ; x=0,1,2, … … ,n

It is known as Binomial Distribution.

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 Binomial Distribution
Mean of Binomial Distribution
Mean =𝜇 = 𝜇1′ = 𝐸 𝑥
= 𝑛𝑥=0 𝑥𝑝 𝑥 p(x) = 𝑛𝐶𝑥 𝑝𝑥 𝑞𝑛−𝑥
= 𝑥 𝑛𝐶𝑥 𝑝𝑥 𝑞 𝑛−𝑥 p(x-1) = 𝑛−1𝐶𝑥−1 𝑝 𝑥−1 𝑞 𝑛−1 − (𝑥−1)

p(x-2) = 𝑛−2𝐶𝑥−2 𝑝 𝑥−2 𝑞 𝑛−2 − (𝑥−2)

𝑛!
= 𝑥 𝑝 𝑥 𝑞 𝑛−𝑥
𝑥! 𝑛 − 𝑥 !
𝑛 𝑛−1 !
= 𝑥 𝑝 𝑥 𝑞 𝑛−𝑥
𝑥 𝑥−1 ! 𝑛−𝑥 !

𝑛−1 !
=𝑛 𝑝 𝑥 𝑞 𝑛−𝑥
𝑥−1 ! 𝑛−𝑥 !
𝑛−1 !
=𝑛 𝑝𝑝 𝑥−1 𝑞 𝑛−1 −(𝑥−1)
𝑥 − 1 ! 𝑛 − 1 − (𝑥 − 1) !
𝑛−1 ! 𝑛
= 𝑛𝑝 𝑝 𝑥−1 𝑞 𝑛−1 − (𝑥−1) = np 𝑥=0 𝑛 − 1𝐶𝑥−1 𝑝
𝑥−1 𝑞 𝑛−1 − (𝑥−1)
𝑥−1 ! 𝑛−1 −(𝑥−1) !
𝑛
= 𝑛𝑝 𝑥=0 𝑝(𝑥 − 1)
= 𝑛𝑝
∴ 𝑀𝑒𝑎𝑛 𝑜𝑓 𝐵𝑖𝑛𝑜𝑚𝑖𝑎𝑙 𝐷𝑖𝑠𝑡𝑟𝑖𝑏𝑢𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛 𝑖𝑠 𝑛𝑝
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 Binomial Distribution
Variance of Binomial Distribution
We know, Second central moment = Variance = µ2 = 𝜇2′ − 𝜇1′2
𝜇2′ = 𝑥 2 𝑝(𝑥) = 𝑥 𝑥 − 1 + 𝑥 𝑝(𝑥) = 𝑥 𝑥 − 1 + 𝑥 𝑝(𝑥) = 𝑥(𝑥 − 1) 𝑝(𝑥) + 𝑥𝑝(𝑥)
𝜇1′
Now, 𝑥(𝑥 − 1) 𝑝(𝑥)
= 𝑥 𝑥 − 1 𝑛𝐶𝑥 𝑝 𝑥 𝑞 𝑛−𝑥
𝑛! So, 𝜇2′ = n(n-1) 𝑝2 + 𝜇1′
= 𝑥(𝑥 − 1) 𝑥!(𝑛−𝑥)! 𝑝 𝑥 𝑞 𝑛−𝑥 = n(n-1) 𝑝2 + np
𝑛(𝑛−1)(𝑛−2)! = 𝑛2 𝑝2 − 𝑛𝑝2 + 𝑛𝑝
= 𝑥(𝑥 − 1) 𝑥(𝑥−1)(𝑥−2)!(𝑛−𝑥)! 𝑝 𝑥 𝑞 𝑛−𝑥
µ2 = 𝜇2′ − 𝜇1′2
(𝑛−2)!
= n(n-1) (𝑥−2)!(𝑛−𝑥)! 𝑝2 𝑝 𝑥−2 𝑞 𝑛−2 −(𝑥−2) = 𝑛2 𝑝2 − 𝑛𝑝2 + 𝑛𝑝 - 𝑛2 𝑝2
(𝑛−2)! = np - 𝑛𝑝2
= n(n-1) 𝑝2 𝑝 𝑥−2 𝑞 𝑛−2 −(𝑥−2) = np(1-p)
(𝑥−2)!(𝑛−𝑥)!
= n(n-1) 𝑝2 (p+q)n-2 = npq p+q =1 ∴ 𝑞 = 1 − 𝑝
Variance (𝜎 2 ) = µ2 = npq
= n(n-1) 𝑝2 ∵p+q = 1 11
 Binomial Distribution
Example1.
Suppose a fair coin is tossed 300 times. Find the mean and variance of
getting heads.
Solution.
we know, Mean of binomial distribution is ‘np’ = 300*(0.5) = 150
Again, Variance of binomial distribution is ‘npq’ = 300*(0.5)*(0.5) = 75

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 Binomial Distribution
Example2.
The manufacturer of a bag of sweets claims that there is a 90% chance that
the bag contains some toffees. If 20 bags are chosen, what is the probability
that (i) all the bags contain toffees (ii) More than 18 bags contain toffees
Solution: Let ‘X’ be the random variable “Number of bags with toffees”
Where, X ∼ B(20, 0.90 )
(i) P(X=20) = 20C20(0.9)20(0.1)0 = 0.122
(ii) P(X>18) = P(X=19)+ P(X=20)
= 20C19(0.9)19(0.1)1 + 20C20(0.9)20(0.1)0 = 0.270+0.122 = 0.392

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 Binomial Distribution
Example2.
In clinical trials a certain drug has a 8% success rate of curing a known disease.
If 15 people are known to have the disease. What is the probability that at
least 2 are cured?
Solution: Let ‘X’ be the random variable “Number of people cured”
Where, X ∼ B(15, 0.08 )
(i) P(X≥ 2) = P(X=2) + P(X=3) + … + P(X=15)
= 1- [P(X=0) + P(X=1)]
= 1 - [15C0(0.08)0(0.1)15 + 15C1(0.08)1(0.92)14]
= 1- [0.286 + 0.373]
= 1- 0.659
= 0.341

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