ECONOMICS AND SOCIAL BEHAVIOR
Do People Mean What They Say?
Implications for Subjective Survey Data
By MARIANNE BERTRAND AND
Many surveys contain a wealth of subjec-
tive questions that are at first glance rather
exciting. Examples include: “How important
is leisure time to you?”; “How satisfied are
you with yourself?”; or “How satisfied are
you with your work?” Yet despite easy avail-
ability, this is one data source that econo-
mists rarely use. In fact, the unwillingness to
rely on such questions marks an important
divide between economists and other social
scientists.
This neglect does not come from disinter-
est. Most economists would probably agree
that the variables these questions attempt to
uncover are interesting and important; but
they doubt whether these questions elicit
meaningful answers. These doubts are, how-
ever, based on a priori skepticism rather than
on evidence. This ignores a large body of
experimental and empirical work that has in-
vestigated the meaningfulness of answers to
these questions. Our primary objective in this
paper is to summarize this literature for an
audience of economists, thereby turning a
vague implicit distrust into an explicit posi-
tion grounded in facts. Having summarized
the findings, we integrate them into a
measurement-error framework so as to under-
stand what they imply for empirical research
relying on subjective data. Finally, in order to
calibrate the extent of the measurement-error
problem, we perform some simple empirical
work using specific subjective questions.
* Bertrand: Graduate School of Business, University of
Chicago, 1101 East 58th Street, Chicago, IL 60637, NBER,
and CEPR; Mullainathan: Department of Economics, Mas-
sachusetts Institute of Technology, 50 Memorial Drive,
Cambridge, MA 02173, and NBER.
67
SENDHIL MULLAINATHAN*
I. Evidence on Subjective Questions
A. Cognitive Problems
We begin by summarizing the experimental
evidence on how cognitive factors affect the
way people answer survey questions.1 A set of
experiments has shown that simple manipula-
tions can affect how people process and interpret
questions. One first interesting manipulation
comes from the ordering of questions: whether
question X is preceded by question Y or vice
versa can substantially affect answers. One rea-
son for this ordering effect is that people at-
tempt to provide answers consistent with the
ones they have already given in the survey. A
second issue is that prior questions may elicit
certain memories or attitudes, which then influ-
ence later answers. In a striking study, respon-
dents were asked two happiness questions:
“How happy are you with life in general?” and
“How often do you normally go out on a date?”
When the dating question came first, the an-
swers to both were highly correlated, but when
it came second, they were basically uncorre-
lated. Apparently, the dating question induced
people to focus on one aspect of their life, an
aspect that had undue effects on their subse-
quent answer.
Another cognitive effect is the importance of
question wording. In one classic example, re-
searchers compared responses to two questions:
“Do you think the United States should forbid
public speeches against democracy?” and “Do
1
Due to space constraints, we will just mention two
books that are good sources for reviews of the experimental
evidence: Judith M. Tanur (1992) and Seymour Sudman et
al. (1996). A fuller list of references is available in the full
version of this paper (Bertrand and Mullainathan, 2000).
68 AEA PAPERS AND PROCEEDINGS
you think that the United States should allow
public speeches against democracy?” While
more than half of the respondents stated that
yes, public speeches should be “forbidden,”
three-quarters answered that no, public
speeches should not be “allowed.” Evidence of
such wording effects are extremely common.
Cognitive problems also arise due to the
scales presented to people. In an experiment,
German respondents were asked how many
hours of television they were watching per
day. Half of the respondents were given a
scale that began with ⱕ30 minutes and then
proceeded in half-hour increments ending
with 4.5⫹ hours. The other respondents were
given the same scale except the first five
answers were compressed so that it began
with ⱕ2.5 hours. Only 16 percent of the re-
spondents given the first set of response al-
ternatives reported watching more than 2.5
hours of TV per day, but 32 percent of the
respondents given the second set of response
alternatives reported watching more than 2.5
hours of TV per day. Respondents thus appear
to be inferring “normal” TV viewing from the
scale. The first scale, with a finer partition in
the 0 –2 hours range, suggests to subjects that
this amount of TV-viewing is common. In fact,
stating that the survey’s purpose is to estimate the
amount of TV-viewing greatly diminishes the
scale effect.
An even more fundamental problem is that
respondents may make little mental effort in
answering the question, such as by not attempt-
ing to recall all the relevant information or by
not reading through the whole list of alternative
responses. As a consequence, the ordering of
response alternatives provided matters, since
subjects may simply pick the first or last avail-
able alternatives in a list. In the General Social
Survey, for example, respondents are asked to list
the most and least desirable qualities that a child
may have out of a list of 13 qualities. Researchers
surveyed people and gave them this list in either
the GSS order or in reverse order. They found that
subjects would rate the first or last listed qualities,
whatever they were, as most important.
B. Social Desirability
Beyond purely cognitive issues, the social
nature of the survey procedure also appears to
MAY 2001
play a large role in shaping answers to subjec-
tive questioning. Respondents want to avoid
looking bad in front of the interviewer. A fa-
mous example is that roughly 25 percent of
nonvoters report having voted immediately af-
ter an election. This overreporting is strongest
among those who value norms of political par-
ticipation the most and those who originally
intended on voting. Other studies have noted
that if one adds to a voting question a qualifier
that “Many people do not vote because some-
thing unexpectedly arose ... ,” the discrepancy
rate between self-reported voting and actual
voting drops.
Another example can be found in the self-
reporting of racial attitude. Much evidence sug-
gests that people are unwilling to report
prejudice. For example, reported prejudice in-
creases when respondents believe they are being
psychologically monitored for truth-telling and
decreases when the survey is administered by a
black person.
C. Non-Attitudes, Wrong Attitudes,
and Soft Attitudes
Perhaps the most devastating problem with
subjective questions, however, is the possibility
that attitudes may not “exist” in a coherent
form. A first indication of such problems is that
measured attitudes are quite unstable over time.
For example, in two surveys spaced a few
months apart, the same subjects were asked
about their views on government spending.
Amazingly, 55 percent of the subjects reported
different answers. Such low correlations at high
frequencies are quite representative.
Part of the problem comes from respondents’
reluctance to admit lack of an attitude. Simply
because the surveyor is asking the question,
respondents believe that they should have an
opinion about it. For example, researchers have
shown that large minorities would respond to
questions about obscure or even fictitious is-
sues, such as providing opinions on countries
that do not exist.
A second, more profound, problem is that
people may often be wrong about their “atti-
tudes.” People may not really be good at fore-
casting their behavior or understanding why
they did what they did. In a well-known exper-
iment, subjects are placed in a room where two
VOL. 91 NO. 2 ECONOMICS AND SOCIAL BEHAVIOR
ropes are hanging from the ceiling and are asked
to tie the two ropes together. The two ropes are
sufficiently far apart than one cannot merely
grab one by the hand and then grab the other
one. With no other information, few of the
subjects are able to solve the problem. In a
treatment group, the experimenter accidentally
bumps into one of the ropes, setting it swinging.
Many more people solve the problem in this
case: subjects now see that they can set the
ropes swinging and grab on an upward arc. Yet
when they are debriefed and asked how they
solved the problem, few of the subjects recog-
nize that it was the jostling by the experimenter
that led them to the solution.
A final and related problem is cognitive
dissonance. Subjects may report (and even
feel) attitudes that are consistent with their
behavior and past attitudes. In one experi-
ment, individuals are asked to perform a te-
dious task and then paid either very little or a
lot for it. When asked afterwards how they
liked the task, those who are paid very little
report greater enjoyment. They likely reason
to themselves, “If I did not enjoy the task,
why would I have done it for nothing?”
Rather than admit that they should just have
told the experimenter that they were leaving,
they prefer to think that the task was actually
interesting. In this case, behavior shapes atti-
tudes, and not the other way around.
II. A Measurement-Error Perspective
What do these findings imply for statistical
work using subjective data? We will adopt a
measurement-error perspective and assume
that reported attitudes equal true attitudes
plus some error term, A ⫽ A* ⫹ ␧. Statisti-
cally, we readily understand the case where ␧
is white noise. The above evidence, however,
suggests two important ways in which the
measurement error in attitude questions will
be more than white noise. First, the mean of
the error term will not necessarily be zero
within a survey. For example, the fact that a
survey uses “forbid” rather than “allow” in a
question will affect answers. Second, many of
the findings in the literature suggest that the
error term will be correlated with observable
and unobservable characteristics of the indi-
69
vidual. For example, the misreporting of vot-
ing is higher in certain demographic groups
(e.g., those who place more social value on
voting).
There are two types of analysis that can be
performed with subjective variables: using atti-
tudes to explain behavior or explaining attitudes
themselves. We will examine how mismeasure-
ment affects both types of analyses. First, sup-
pose that we are interested in using self-reported
attitudes to explain behavior. Specifically, sup-
pose that we estimate Y it ⫽ a ⫹ bX it ⫹ cA it ,
while the true model is Y it ⫽ ␣ ⫹ ␤ X it ⫹
␥ A *it ⫹ ␦ Z it , where i represents individuals, t
represents time, Y represents an outcome of
interest, X represents observable characteristics,
Z represents unobservable characteristics, and
we assume for simplicity that Z is orthogonal to
X. How will the estimated coefficient ĉ com-
pare to ␥, given what we have learned about
measurement error in attitude questions?
White noise in the measurement of A will
produce an attenuation bias (i.e., a bias toward
zero). The first measurement problem listed
above, a survey fixed effect, will produce no
bias as long as the appropriate controls (such as
year- or survey-specific dummies) are included.
The second problem, correlation with individual
characteristics X and Z, will create a bias: ĉ will
now include both the true effect of attitude and
the fact that the measurement error in A is
correlated with unobservables. Hence, assum-
ing that measurement-error problems are not
dominant, subjective variables can be useful as
control variables, but care must be taken in
interpreting them. The estimated coefficient
does not only capture the effect of attitude, but
also the effect of other variables that influence
how the attitude is self-reported. This is closely
related to the causality problem that we often
encounter, even with perfectly measured
variables.2
We now turn to the second type of analysis, in
which we are attempting to explain attitudes them-
selves. For example, we might ask whether high
work hours increase loneliness. Specifically,
2
An extreme example of this occurs when the measure-
ment error is correlated with the variable of interest itself, as
is suggested by cognitive dissonance. For example, people
may report a lower preference for money if they are making
less money. This is a case of pure reverse causation.
70 AEA PAPERS AND PROCEEDINGS MAY 2001

suppose that we estimate A it ⫽ a ⫹ bX it ⫹ ␧, TABLE 1—EFFECT OF ATTITUDE QUESTIONS ON FUTURE

while the true model is A *it ⫽ ␣ ⫹ ␤ X it ⫹ ␥ Z it . OUTCOMES
In this setup, the white noise in the measure- Additional controls
ment of attitudes no longer causes bias. But the
other biases now play a much more important Question (i) (ii) (iii) (iv)
role. Specifically, the fact that measurement er- A. Dependent Variable ⫽ Log Wage:
ror is correlated with individual characteristics Value work? 0.08 0.07 0.07 0.06
will now severely bias X. For example, suppose (0.03) (0.03) (0.02) (0.02)
that we see that those from rich backgrounds Value money? 0.08 0.08 0.05 ⫺0.015
have a greater preference for money. As noted (0.02) (0.02) (0.02) (0.02)
earlier, this might simply reflect the fact that a Value steady job? 0.13 0.12 0.12 0.03
rich background affects the reporting of the (0.02) (0.02) (0.02) (0.02)
preference for money. Such a correlation could Value family? 0.07 0.06 0.03 0.003
thus be purely spurious. Notice that this prob- (0.02) (0.02) (0.02) (0.02)
lem is far more severe than in the previous Value friends? ⫺0.01 ⫺0.01 0.02 0.00
(0.02) (0.02) (0.02) (0.02)
analysis. First, the fact that an X helps predict
“attitude” means very little if it is only predict- Value leisure? 0.09 0.08 0.06 0.02
(0.02) (0.02) (0.02) (0.02)
ing the measurement error in attitude. There-
Value social ⫺0.08 ⫺0.08 ⫺0.06 ⫺0.01
fore, one cannot argue as before that simply causes? (0.02) (0.02) (0.02) (0.02)
helping to predict is a good thing, irrespective
Positive toward 0.07 0.06 0.05 ⫺0.00
of causality. Second, this is a problem that is self? (0.02) (0.02) (0.02) (0.02)
much harder to solve than an omitted-variable Reservation 0.17 0.17 0.14 ⫺0.00
bias problem. For example, it is hard to see how wage? (0.03) (0.03) (0.03) (0.02)
an instrumental variable could resolve this is- B. Dependent Variable ⫽ Stayer:
sue. One would need an instrument that affects Satisfied with 0.08 0.08 0.08 —
X but not the measurement of attitude. But the Job? (0.01) (0.01) (0.01)
above evidence tells us that X will likely affect
measurement in a causal sense. This makes it Notes: Additional controls: (i) demographics; (ii) demo-
very unlikely that such an instrument could be graphics plus family background; (iii) demographics plus
family background plus log wage in 1983; (iv) person fixed
found in most contexts. effects. Demographic characteristics include education, sex,
To summarize, interpreting the experimental and race. Family background characteristics include father’s
evidence in a measurement-error framework education, mother’s education, and family income in senior
provides two important insights. First, if the year (seven categories). “Stayer” is a dummy variable which
equals 1 if there is no job change between the second and
measurement error is small enough, subjective third follow-up. Each cell corresponds to a separate regres-
measures may be helpful as independent vari- sion. Standard errors are in parentheses. Except in column
ables in predicting outcomes, with the caveat (iv), outcomes are from the third follow-up survey, and
that the coefficients must be interpreted with attitudes are from the second follow-up. Column (iv) report
care. Second, subjective variables cannot rea- panel regressions on all available survey periods. The re-
gressions in column (iv) also include survey fixed effects.
sonably be used as dependent variables, given
that the measurement error likely correlates
in a very causal way with the explanatory
variables.
To assess this, we turn to the “High School
and Beyond” Senior Sample, which surveyed
III. How Much Noise Is There?
seniors in school in 1980 and then followed
them every two years until 1986. This sample
This leaves the important quantitative ques- provides us with a set of subjective and objec-
tion: How much white noise error is there in the tive variables in each of these waves.
subjective questions we might be interested in? In the first eight rows of Table 1, we correlate
Can we in fact gain anything by adding re- answers to a set of attitude variables with future
sponses to subjective questions to our econo- income (thereby removing mechanical correla-
metric models? tions with current income). Each cell in the
VOL. 91 NO. 2 ECONOMICS AND SOCIAL BEHAVIOR
table corresponds to a separate regression. The
dependent variable is log(salary) in 1985. In
column (i), we add as controls the sex, race, and
educational attainment of the respondent. An-
swers to the subjective questions clearly help
predict individual income. The set of correla-
tions is very intuitive. People who value money
or a steady job more earn more. People who
value social goals such as correcting inequali-
ties around them earn less. People who have a
positive attitude toward themselves earn more.
Maybe somewhat intriguing, we find that
people who care about their family earn sub-
stantially more. Even more intriguing, people
who value leisure time also earn more. The
second row shows that respondents’ attitudes do
not simply proxy for objective family back-
ground characteristics. Controlling for parents’
education and family income in the senior year
does not weaken the predictive power of the
attitude variables. In column (iii), we show that
attitude questions stay predictive of future in-
come even after one controls for current indi-
vidual income.
As a whole, these results suggest that noise
does not dominate the measurement of these
subjective questions. Attitudes actually predict
income even beyond past income and back-
ground characteristics. Of course, we are not
arguing for causality, merely that attitude vari-
ables add explanatory power.
Finally, one might wonder to what extent
these variables are conveying any information
beyond fixed individual characteristics. In
column (iv), we exploit the panel nature of the
High School and Beyond survey. We rerun
the standard regressions with lagged attitude
measures but also add person fixed effects.
Most of the effects previously discussed dis-
appear, except for the importance of work and
the importance of having a steady job (which
are now marginally significant). It therefore
does not appear that changes in attitudes have
as much predictive power as attitudes them-
selves. Thus, while these attitude questions
are helpful in explaining fixed differences
between individuals, changes in reported at-
titudes are not helpful in explaining changes
in outcomes.
In row 9 we investigate whether answers to
reservation-wage questions are correlated with
future income. Are individuals who report a
71
higher reservation wage today likely to earn
more in the future? We see a very strong rela-
tionship between reservation wage and future
income, even after controlling for the individu-
al’s education, sex, and race. This holds true
even if we add controls for family background
[column (ii)] or family background and cur-
rent income [column (iii)]. However, changes
in reported reservation wages do not help
predict changes in income [column (iv)]. In
summary, answers to reservation-wage ques-
tions do appear to capture some unobserved
individual characteristics and might be worth
including when trying to predict individual in-
come. Changes in reported reservation wages,
however, provide no information about changes
in income.
Finally, in the last row, we ask whether an-
swers to job-satisfaction questions help predict
future job turnover. Again, we find that people’s
self-reported satisfaction with their job “as a
whole” is a strong predictor of the probability of
changing jobs in the future.3
IV. Conclusion
Four main messages emerge from this dis-
cussion. First, a large experimental literature
by and large supports economists’ skepticism
of subjective questions. Second, put in an
econometric framework, these findings cast
serious doubts on attempts to use subjective
data as dependent variables, because the mea-
surement error appears to correlate with a
large set of characteristics and behaviors. For
example, a drop in reported racism over time
may simply reflect an increased reluctance to
report racism. Since many of the interesting
applications would likely use these data as
dependent variables, this is a rather pessimis-
tic conclusion. Third, and on a brighter note,
these data may be useful as explanatory vari-
ables. One must, however, take care in inter-
preting the results since the findings may not
be causal. Finally, our empirical work sug-
gests that subjective variables are useful in
practice for explaining differences in behavior
3
In this case, we are not able to study a fixed-effect
model, as the job-satisfaction question was only asked in the
second and third follow-up of the data.
72 AEA PAPERS AND PROCEEDINGS
across individuals. Changes in answers to these
questions, however, do not appear useful in
explaining changes in behavior.
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The application of cognitive processes to sur-
vey methodology. San Francisco: Jossey-
Bass, 1996.
Tanur, Judith M. Questions about questions:
Inquiries into the cognitive bases of surveys.
New York: Russell Sage, 1992.
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