Theoretical and Applied Fracture Mechanics 117 (2022) 103143

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Theoretical and Applied Fracture Mechanics

journal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/tafmec

An online model-based fatigue life prediction approach using extended

Kalman filter
Eshwar Kuncham a , Subhamoy Sen a ,∗, Pankaj Kumar b , Himanshu Pathak c
a
i4S Laboratory, Indian Institute of Technology Mandi, Mandi, HP, India
b
Department of Mechanical Engineering, National Institute of Technology Goa, Ponda, Goa, India
c
School of Engineering, Indian Institute of Technology Mandi, Mandi, HP, India

ARTICLE INFO ABSTRACT

Keywords: Typical civil infrastructures are prone to fatigue-induced failure due to repeated loading during their service
Fatigue life. To effectively manage the consequences of fatigue-induced failure, the remaining useful life (RUL) of a
Structural health monitoring structure must be estimated on the basis of a certain established parameterized fatigue model. Eventually
Uncertainty
estimation of the pertinent fatigue model parameters becomes imperative which has traditionally been
Paris model
approached offline using a complete available database. This paper proposes an online model-based approach
Extended Kalman filter
Remaining useful life
to predict (/estimate) the fatigue life drawing inference from only available structural health monitoring (SHM)
data employing an extended Kalman filter (EKF). Keeping the real life uncertainties (loading, model inaccuracy,
ambient variability etc.) into account, the study casts the problem in the probabilistic domain. Updated Paris
model is employed in this attempt to simulate the fatigue crack growth propagation, and the model parameters
are estimated using SHM data while taking the uncertainties into consideration. The proposed method employs
two steps: first, to estimate the unknown model parameters using the available crack growth history and the
second, to perform the prognosis of the crack based on the estimated model parameters. Numerical studies are
conducted on two fracture scenarios: edge and center crack in a finite plate under mechanical and thermal
loading conditions. Further, numerical simulations have been carried out to study RUL for a welded joint of
a bridge based on its worst operational scenario. To further validate the proposed method, an experimental
study is conducted on compact tension (CT) specimens. Estimation of Paris model parameters and fatigue crack
prognosis with the proposed approach has been validated on these test sets. This method is observed to be
consistently accurate in estimating the fatigue model parameters and subsequently predicting the RUL as well.

1. Introduction
Fatigue failure occurs upon subjecting a structure to a continuous
alternating load leading towards initiation and propagation of cracks
in the material. Eventually, this induces brittleness in the material
causing possible catastrophic failure without any warning. Not nec-
essarily the structure has to undergo extreme loading for the fatigue
failure to occur. Instead, numerous small magnitude frequent and
repetitive loads collectively can induce fatigue in the material causing
immediate failure when the accumulated damage reaches its critical
level [1]. Civil infrastructures typically experience such loads during
their service life that can potentially risk their stability and integrity
over prolonged usage. A timely inspection of the material condition
thus becomes necessary to reduce the risk of structural failures and
associated consequences.
Eventually, condition assessment targeting fatigue life prediction of
a structure using structural health monitoring (SHM) [2] approaches
became a crucial step to ensure operational safety with civil infras-
tructures. However, the factors such as material characteristics, load
history, and environmental conditions induce uncertainty and random-
ness in the process of unknown magnitude. Therefore, it becomes im-
perative to employ probabilistic approaches rather than the traditional
deterministic approaches to predict the RUL of a structure.
Simulating the propagation of fatigue cracks in steel structures is
commonly approached using a well established parameterized fatigue
model, i.e. Paris model for which the model parameters depend on
the material properties. Yet, for large civil infrastructures, neither it is
pragmatic to expect the material to be of consistent quality all over
the structure, nor component wise material property estimation can
be considered a practical breakthrough. Different production batches
will inherently induce variation in the material properties. Fatigue and
its consequence, on the other hand, is sensitive to the presence of

∗ Corresponding author.
E-mail address: subhamoy@iitmandi.ac.in (S. Sen).

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tafmec.2021.103143
Received 15 August 2021; Received in revised form 25 October 2021; Accepted 25 October 2021
Available online 6 November 2021
0167-8442/© 2021 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
E. Kuncham et al.
small and unavoidable micro-structural irregularities caused during the
manufacturing [3]. In addition, the incoming service load is also not
certain and constant throughout the service life of the structure which
may induce randomness in the crack propagation process. These aspects
eventually render the problem of material property or model parameter
estimation a complex problem that can however be holistically dealt
with a probabilistic approach dealing with uncertainty quantification.
In this context, this study concentrates on predicting fatigue life
for steel bridges with welded joints. Under usual service loading, a
critical part of a structural configuration such as joints, are typically
subjected to cyclic stresses which might drive them to undergo fatigue
failure [4] and therefore should ideally be monitored for their fatigue
life [5]. Typical welded joints have complex geometries, sometimes
with existing fatigue cracks. For damage prognosis of such structural
components, the ambient variability in temperature induces a com-
bined thermo-mechanical loading that may at times accelerate the
fatigue process. Also, the associated uncertainties of unknown origin
and magnitude inherent in the predictor model, material properties and
loading render the entire problem to be probabilistic. Moreover, the
complex geometry, typical with the civil engineering structures, makes
the problem of predicting its remaining service life, a challenging task
which has to be addressed in a systematic manner.
2. Literature review
Several studies investigated probabilistic approaches for fatigue
life prediction for various types of structures: offshore platforms [6]
and aircraft [7] are to name a few. Post silver bridge collapse in
1967 [8], bridge safety under fatigue has received significant attention.
To cater for safety under fatigue loading, the focus has shifted from
fault diagnosis to prognostics targeting future damage evolution and
subsequent isolation of possible danger through repair or retrofitting.
There exists several detection techniques for cracks and/or damages
in the literature [9–11] approaching the problem using nondestructive
techniques, vibration based approaches [12,13], computer vision, ma-
chine learning [14] etc. In this process, predicting the RUL (or fatigue
life) has become one of the prime concerns [15] taking the objective
beyond crack detection. With fatigue life estimation based approaches,
the damage evaluation has typically been defined with Paris’ law and
the associated parameters are estimated offline from the measured SHM
data [16,17].
A lot of attention has recently been paid to the stochastic inverse
estimation-based approaches that integrate fatigue crack propagation
models with Bayes’ inference techniques [3,18–20] for fatigue crack
prognosis. As far as the stochastic filters are concerned, the Kalman
Filter (KF) [21] gives an optimal solution to linear problems under the
Gaussian uncertainty assumption. Nevertheless, due to the imperative
requirement of parameter estimation, the fatigue prognosis problems
are typically nonlinear, invalidating the employment of traditional KF.
The particle filter (PF) [22–24] and other nonlinear variants of KF, such
as the Extended, Unscented and Ensemble version of KF (i.e. EKF, UKF
and EnKF respectively) [25,26] have been widely used for nonlinear
estimation problems, like Paris model parameter and crack length
estimation [27].
The relative robustness of sample based filtering approaches like
PF or EnKF for nonlinear system estimation has been employed ex-
tensively in the literature. Yet, their computational demand is most
often perceived to be impractical for problems where either economical
or prompt solution is needed. For parameter estimation problems,
EKF jointly estimates the parameters in parallel to the system states
with a joint estimation approach termed as the Joint-EKF or JEKF
approach. Despite the extensive application for parameter estimators,
concerns have been raised against JEKF since it lacks ergodicity and the
analytical format [28]. Moreover, JEKF estimation has been reported to
diverge with larger state dimension [29]. Even after such shortcomings,
JEKF has potential for being the computationally cheapest nonlinear
2
Theoretical and Applied Fracture Mechanics 117 (2022) 103143
estimator for moderate-size and moderately nonlinear systems. Further-
more, UKF, even after being theoretically superior to EKF, is reported
to not yield good estimation for crack and parameters in practice [3].
Eventually, EKF has seen numerous applications recently for fatigue
prognosis problems. [30] employed EKF for bearing damage prognosis
and RUL estimation. Material degradation sensitive features are ex-
tracted from the vibration signals which are then fitted in order to
avoid employing the full scale degradation model. EKF has also been
applied to estimate the prognostics of proton exchange membrane fuel
cells in [31]. In this attempt, with each new state of health estimation,
the RUL is updated and further extrapolated to its threshold. Similar
fatigue crack growth prognosis problem is solved using EKF in order to
develop a straightforward method that is easy to implement while being
computationally cheaper [32,33]. [34] estimated the probability mass
function of the RUL of lithium-ion batteries by extrapolating samples
from the state-parameter distribution based on the EKF.
It can be verified from the available literature that most approaches
targeting fatigue life estimation for civil infrastructures are offline in
nature [16,17,35], meaning one needs the complete measured data in
order to conclude on the RUL. On the contrary, an online algorithm
allows this flexibility to use data only when it is available. Further,
with Bayesian filtering based approaches, prior information (or belief)
on the fatigue model parameters and their evolution can be used in
the absence of measured data. Of course, the estimation accuracy
should ideally be better post drawing inference from measured data.
Yet for such estimation problems, filtering approaches are preferred
since they allow fusing prior beliefs with information embedded in
measurement while dealing with real life uncertainties. Finally, it can
also be verified that most filtering based RUL estimation approaches
available in the literature deal with systems operated under a control
environment, made of reliable materials and subjected to sufficiently
known stress cycles. Unfortunately, the same can never be expected for
civil infrastructural systems and one needs to take required measures in
order to employ such filtering approaches for RUL estimation for civil
engineering structures.
This paper proposes an online model-based approach to predict
(/estimate) the fatigue life from the available SHM data by employing
EKF. Initially, a Paris law model is used to develop a numerical repre-
sentation of the fatigue crack propagation through the associated model
parameters, and the crack propagation is studied by considering the
various uncertainties that dwell in reality. Nevertheless, not conforming
to the idealization made with Paris law about the stress being tensile
only, the typical bridge structures experience both tensile and com-
pressive stress in its members and joints. However, crack propagates
only when the stress is tensile while under compressive stress, a crack
closure effect generally takes place reversing the crack growth. In order
to achieve an accurate estimate of the fatigue life of a bridge or its
components, both effects need to be considered in the predictor model.
Proposed method is therefore modified with updated Paris law that
takes the crack closer effect into consideration. The proposed method
consists of two steps: first, to estimate the Paris model parameters
measured from the past crack growth history, and the second, to
perform the prognosis of the crack based on the estimated Paris model
parameters.
An extensive numerical study is conducted on finite plates with
different damage scenarios like center crack and edge crack under
mechanical and thermo-mechanical loading conditions. Estimation of
updated Paris model parameters and fatigue crack prognosis with the
proposed approach have been demonstrated on this test set. Further, an
extensive numerical study is performed on a welded joint of a bridge
based on the assumption of the worst operational scenario. A laboratory
experiment is finally conducted on compact tension (CT) specimens to
validate the proposed method.
E. Kuncham et al.
3. Proposed approach
Present study employs a Bayesian filtering based prediction–
correction approach for estimating crack propagation and the associ-
ated model parameters in a joint state-parameter estimation environ-
ment from the available SHM data. Depending on the scenario, a proper
selection of the SHM data type is mandatory. Typically, RUL estimation
is approached in two ways: for structural systems with and without a
crack. For apparently healthy structures, having no visible cracks, RUL
estimation is straightforward through employment of Miner’s rule [36]
that uses S–N curve for the component material. Eventually, for such
problems stress data is employed for SHM. For the structures with
visible cracks, the RUL estimation basically depends on the crack length
prognosis based on available crack growth history. Evidently, such
problems need deeper understanding of the crack geometry, evolution
and fatigue crack propagation. Eventually, this makes the problem
more complex and the employment of compute intensive numerical
models becomes imperative.
The physical system and its fatigue crack propagation aspect is
required to be replicated with a parameterized model. Selection of
the associated parameters of course depends on the objective of the
study. Here in this attempt, the damage prognosis is attempted with an
updated Paris model embedded within a state space predictor model
and its parameters (𝑐 and 𝑚) are selected as estimable parameters.
The associated parametric uncertainty is assumed to be of epistemic in
nature, meaning that they are genuinely deterministic and time invari-
ant, only lacking sufficient knowledge. Accordingly, the uncertainty is
expected to be reduced with information collected from reality, i.e., the
SHM data (crack growth history).
Thereby, with this joint estimation approach, the parameters and
the crack length are collectively considered as the unobservable state
(or state-parameter) vector evolving through time using a state (/pro-
cess) equation (/model). During the estimation, the predictor model
propagates the estimates for crack length (𝑎) in time conditioned on the
current estimate of the system parameters. A measurement equation (or
mapping) is further employed to observe the mentioned unobservable
states as measurement. Here it should be noted that the actual value of
crack can never be observed and can only be measured contaminated
by the unavoidable measurement noise induced through the sensors.
The measurement model therefore demonstrates this mapping of system
states to available measurements through a probabilistic framework
involving the mentioned measurement uncertainty. The subsequent
correction step then refines this estimate while correcting the param-
eters in simultaneity using the available data. The following section
defines the crack propagation model used in the process equation
followed by the measurement model employed for this study.
3.1. Fatigue crack growth modeling with eXtended Finite Element Method
(XFEM)
Eventually, the approach proposed in this study takes a basis on
data of crack growth history. Demonstration of the approach therefore
needs a crack growth history. In the absence of real data, synthetic
data simulated using numerical models is generally employed to act
as a proxy in the method development phase. Accordingly, XFEM is
employed in this study to simulate fatigue crack propagation in a
bridge joint [5] under mechanical [37] and thermo-mechanical [38]
loading conditions. Traditionally, standalone ABAQUS-XFEM modules
are employed [39] to model crack and its propagation targeting fatigue
life estimation for simple as well as complex structures. Unfortunately,
the procedure lacks the flexibility to assign Paris law parameters, and
to control the critical parameters of crack propagation. Besides, this
approach is majorly compute-intensive. Alternate ways have therefore
been adopted in several other studies in order to overcome this issue,
such as automatizing estimation of the crack growth path and fatigue
life.
3
Theoretical and Applied Fracture Mechanics 117 (2022) 103143
Fig. 1. Flowchart of the algorithm to calculate SIF.
Focusing on computational economy, majority of the articles deal-
ing with such problems employed a quasi-static approach provided
by [40]. In this approach, the stress intensity factors (SIF) for the
various crack opening modes must be calculated for an initial crack.
In the following, the quasi-static crack growth model is employed for
crack propagation. Eventually with this approach, the crack geometry
can be recursively updated, and the process can be repeated for each
time step. [41] suggested that the domain does not need to be re-
meshed in each iteration and thereby reducing the computational
expense provided the mesh around the crack tip is fine enough to
ensure precision in the calculated SIF.
To execute this quasi-static approach, current study amalgamates
ABAQUS, Python and MATLAB in which through a MATLAB program,
an ABAQUS–Python script is recursively updated in order to simu-
late SIFs within ABAQUS environment under different conditions. The
algorithm’s key phases are represented in Fig. 1.
In each iteration, the adopted approach numerically simulates ge-
ometry with crack discontinuity using XFEM in ABAQUS package. The
crack model is simulated to obtain SIF parameters which are subse-
quently used to model quasi-static fatigue crack growth. In general,
crack growth direction (𝜃) is obtained by Maximum Tangential Stress
(MTS) criterion which assumes that crack may grow in a direction
perpendicular to the maximum principal stress. Therefore, for each
small crack increment, a 𝜃 corresponding to applied maximum load can
be obtained following Maximum Tangential Stress (MTS) criteria given
by [42]. Consequently, the associated crack driving force (i.e., 𝛥𝐾𝑒𝑞 )
can also be calculated as,
√
⎡ ⎛ ( ) ⎞⎤
−1 ⎢ 1 ⎜ 𝛥𝐾𝐼 𝛥𝐾𝐼 2
𝜃 = 2𝑡𝑎𝑛 ± + 8⎟⎥
⎢ 4 ⎜ 𝛥𝐾𝐼𝐼 𝛥𝐾𝐼𝐼 ⎟⎥
⎣ ⎝ ⎠⎦
3𝜃 𝜃 2𝜃 (1)
𝛥𝐾𝑒𝑞 = 𝛥𝐾𝐼 𝑐𝑜𝑠 − 3𝛥𝐾𝐼𝐼 𝑠𝑖𝑛 𝑐𝑜𝑠
2 2 2
𝛥𝐾𝐼 = [𝐾𝐼 ]𝑚𝑎𝑥 − [𝐾𝐼 ]𝑚𝑖𝑛
𝛥𝐾𝐼𝐼 = [𝐾𝐼𝐼 ]𝑚𝑎𝑥 − [𝐾𝐼𝐼 ]𝑚𝑖𝑛
with [𝐾𝐼 ]𝑚𝑎𝑥 and [𝐾𝐼𝐼 ]𝑚𝑎𝑥 are the SIFs in mode I and II with respect
to maximum applied load under cyclic fatigue loading condition. In
the same way, [𝐾𝐼 ]𝑚𝑖𝑛 and [𝐾𝐼𝐼 ]𝑚𝑖𝑛 are the SIFs in mode I and II with
respect to minimum applied load. With this direction and driving force,
the ABAQUS–Python script is updated with this redefined crack font
and iterations are continued till the critical conditions, yielding a series
E. Kuncham et al. Theoretical and Applied Fracture Mechanics 117 (2022) 103143

of SIFs corresponding to various crack sizes. The numerically obtained It should be noted here that the functional relationship between 𝐶
data is further curve-fitted to correlate 𝛥𝐾𝑒𝑞 to 𝑎 using a polynomial and 𝑚 involves additional parameters like 𝑅, 𝑣𝑐𝑟 and 𝐾𝐼𝐶 which can
equation. either be estimated from the field test or can be safely assumed to be
Traditionally, the fatigue crack growth is replicated using a degrada- constant for each group of materials [48].
tion model following the Paris–Erdogan rule [43]. The growth in crack
size (𝑎) with respect to stress cycle 𝑁 (tensile only) is defined using 3.2. System description
a power law equation involving two Paris model parameters 𝐶 and 𝑚
(termed as material constants) and to the corresponding 𝛥𝐾𝑒𝑞 as, It has been already discussed that 𝐶 and 𝑚, being assumed with
𝑑𝑎 epistemic uncertainty, must be estimated probabilistically using avail-
= 𝐶(𝛥𝐾𝑒𝑞 )𝑚 (2) able measured SHM data (i.e., crack size variation over stress cycles).
𝑑𝑁
Due to the constraint on the applied stress to be tensile in nature With a predictor–corrector environment for such estimation, there is
only, traditional Paris law is most often not applicable for cases where an imperative requirement for a sufficiently accurate predictor model
the stress intensity alternates between compression and tension, caus- (as in Eq. (3)). In this process, the associated model parameters like
ing a crack closure effect to take place. To address such scenarios, 𝛥𝐾𝑡ℎ , R, 𝜎𝑓′ can be considered to be reliably estimated through field
several researchers suggested an alternate rule to counter the shortcom- investigation or combined numerical–experimental analysis. Of course
ings of the Paris law through crack closure and stress ratio (𝑅) effects. 𝛥𝐾𝑒𝑓 𝑓 is a deduced variable depending on 𝑎 as the unknown vari-
The influence of SIF is also altered accordingly considering only the able (i.e., 𝛥𝐾𝑒𝑓 𝑓 = 𝜙(𝑎)). The associated details are presented in the
tensile part of the stress cycle. This approach yields a relationship that following.
defines the fatigue crack growth rate (i.e. 𝑑𝑁 𝑑𝑎
), as a function of the Finally, the analytical formulation given in Eq. (8) for crack prop-
effective SIF range (𝛥𝐾𝑒𝑓 𝑓 ) and 𝑅. Based on experimental data from agation can be discretized in time. The uncertainty due to possible
fatigue crack propagation, [44] proposed an approach to calculate the modeling inaccuracy can be represented with a stationary white Gaus-
𝛥𝐾𝑒𝑓 𝑓 as per the following expressions [45]: sian noise (SWGN) process model  (0; 𝑄𝑎 ). This leads to a state-space
[ ( )2 ] system model with 𝑎𝑘 being one of the state variable as,
0 1 𝛥𝐾𝑡ℎ
𝛥𝐾𝑒𝑓 |
𝑓 𝑅=0 = 𝛥𝐾 𝑒𝑞 1 − > 𝛥𝐾𝑒𝑞 − 𝛥𝐾𝑡ℎ 𝑎𝑘+1 = 𝑎𝑘 + 𝐶(𝛥𝐾𝑒𝑓 𝑓 )𝑚 𝛥𝑁 + 𝑤𝑎𝑘
2 𝛥𝐾𝑒𝑞 (8)
= 𝑓 (𝑎𝑘 , 𝑚𝑘 , 𝐶𝑘 ) + 𝑤𝑎𝑘
0
𝛥𝐾𝑒𝑓 (3)
𝑓
𝛥𝐾𝑒𝑓 𝑓 |𝑅≠0 = [ ( )] 𝑤𝑎𝑘 is a realization of the assumed SWGN model and 𝑓 (∙) provides the
(1+𝑅𝜎 )𝑆𝑚𝑎𝑥
1− functional representation of the crack size propagation model between
2𝜎𝑓′
two consecutive steps. Clearly, the process equation boils down to three
where 𝛥𝐾𝑡ℎ is the threshold SIF range, 𝑆𝑚𝑎𝑥 is the maximum stress and variables of interest, i.e. 𝑎 (already assumed as a time varying state)
𝜎𝑓′ is the fatigue strength coefficient. 𝑅𝜎 is the modified stress ratio at with 𝐶 and 𝑚, that can be considered as parameters.
the crack tip region and calculated using Eq. (6)
[ ] 𝑛′ 3.3. Joint state-parameter estimation
(1 − 𝑅)2 1+𝑛′
𝑅𝜎 = 1 − 2
4 (4) Joint estimation of states and parameters is a well-researched topic
𝑙𝑜𝑔(𝛿 ∗ ) − 𝑙𝑜𝑔(𝑟𝑐 ) in the fields of stochastic inverse estimation problems. The same ap-
𝑅𝜎 = 𝑅𝜎 +
𝑙𝑜𝑔(𝑟𝑚 ) − 𝑙𝑜𝑔(𝑟𝑐 ) proach is employed in this article to probabilistically estimate the
where 𝑛′ is the cyclic exponent, 𝛿 ∗ is the material length parameter, 𝑟𝑐 material parameter states 𝐶 and 𝑚 while filtering out noises from the
is the cyclic plastic zone and 𝑟𝑚 is the monotonic plastic zone under the measured crack size to facilitate better estimation of response state
fatigue loading condition. [45] discussed that 𝑅𝜎 sharply decreases as 𝑎. Eventually, the parameter states are required to be appended in
the distance from the crack tip increases from the regions 𝑟𝑐 to 𝑟𝑚 . the state vector in order to jointly estimate the augmented state 𝐗𝑘
Fig. 2 reveals that the fatigue crack growth rule is applicable for a using the available measurements. The propagation model for such
specific crack propagation region that is between the near threshold unobservable states however needs them to be of similar scales which
crack propagation region I and the near unstable crack propagation is not possible with the material parameter 𝐶 in the state vector. The
region III. assumed state vector has therefore been defined with 𝛩 as a negative
( ) logarithmic mapping of 𝐶 as:
𝑑𝑎
= 𝐶(𝛥𝐾𝑐𝑟 )𝑚 = 𝑣𝑐𝑟 (5)
𝑑𝑁 𝑐𝑟 𝐗𝑘 = [𝑎𝑘 𝑚𝑘 𝛩𝑘 ]𝑇 (9)
𝑑𝑎
Further, can be established as a function not only of 𝛥𝐾𝑒𝑞 , but
𝑑𝑁 This ensures that the estimable parameter 𝛩𝑘 is of comparable scales
also of the condition of crack growth instability for cases when max-
of 𝑎 and 𝑚. The process equation specific to this problem can therefore
imum SIF (𝐾𝑚𝑎𝑥 ) is approaching its critical value (𝐾𝐼𝐶 ) [46] causing
be defined as:
the crack propagation rate to be infinity. Eventually, the fast deviation
from the linear part of Region II can be attributed to the sudden rise in ⎧ 𝑓 (𝐗 ) ⎫ ⎧ 𝑤𝑎𝑘 ⎫
⎪ 1 𝑘 ⎪ ⎪ 𝑚 ⎪
the crack propagation rate. At the transition point between Region II 𝐗𝑘+1 = ⎨ 𝑚𝑘 ⎬ + ⎨ 𝑤𝑘 ⎬ =  (𝐗𝑘 ) + 𝐰𝑘 (10)
and Region III, designated as cr in Fig. 2, the following holds true, with ⎪ 𝑓2 (𝐗𝑘 ) ⎪ ⎪ 𝛩 ⎪
⎩ ⎭ ⎩ 𝑤𝑘 ⎭
𝛥𝐾𝑐𝑟 = 𝛥𝐾𝐼𝐶 . Reasonably, 𝛥𝐾𝑐𝑟 can be assumed to take maximum value
𝑑𝑎 where 𝑓1 (𝐗𝑘 ) and 𝑓2 (𝐗𝑘 ) can be elaborated
as 𝐾𝐼𝐶 due to the fact that fast fluctuation in 𝑑𝑁 occurs on triggering [ as: 𝑓1 ](𝐗𝑘 ) = 𝑎𝑘 + 𝐶𝑘
1
crack instability, yielding the following rule, (𝛥𝐾𝑒𝑓 𝑓 )𝑚𝑘 𝛥𝑁 and 𝑓2 (𝐗𝐤 ) = 𝑙𝑜𝑔(𝑣𝑐𝑟 ) + 𝑚𝑘 𝑙𝑜𝑔 (1−𝑅)𝐾 . The associated
𝐼𝐶
process noise (i.e. [𝑤𝑎𝑘 𝑤𝑚 𝑤𝛩 ]𝑇 ) can be modeled as a realization from
𝛥𝐾𝑐𝑟 = (1 − 𝑅)𝐾𝐼𝐶 (6) 𝑘 𝑘
a SWGN process model of covariance 𝐐 = 𝑑𝑖𝑎𝑔(𝐐𝑎 , 𝐐𝑚 , 𝐐𝛩 ) where in
As a result, incorporating Eq. (6) into Eq. (5), an approximate 𝐐𝑎 , 𝐐𝑚 and 𝐐𝛩 are the variances of the assumed SWGN noise associated
relationship in logarithmic form between the Paris constants can be to the states and parameters 𝑎, 𝑚 and 𝛩 respectively and operator
established, assuming that the raise of the Paris instability corresponds 𝑑𝑖𝑎𝑔(∙) returns a diagonalized block matrix of its arguments.
to the Griffith–Irwin instability [47]: It has been discussed in this article previously, that the true values
[ ] of the crack size 𝑎𝑘 can never be measured. The available data on the
1
log 𝐶 = 𝑙𝑜𝑔(𝑣𝑐𝑟 ) + 𝑚𝑙𝑜𝑔 (7) measured crack size is therefore only a mapping of true 𝑎𝑘 perturbed
(1 − 𝑅)𝐾𝐼𝐶

4
E. Kuncham et al. Theoretical and Applied Fracture Mechanics 117 (2022) 103143

by the associated measurement uncertainty due to the rough measuring Next, with the measurement model defined in Eq. (11), the propa-
environment and sensor limitations. The model predicted crack size gated state estimate is observed in terms of predicted measurement 𝑧̃ 𝑘+1
𝑎𝑘+1 as given in Eq. (10), is therefore mapped to measured crack size at (𝑘 + 1)th time instant. Subsequently the innovation (𝜀𝑘+1 ) between
𝑧𝑘+1 . With 𝑎𝑘+1 being functions of the other two state variables 𝛩𝑘+1 predicted (𝑧̃ 𝑘+1 ) and actual (𝑧𝑘+1 ) measurement can be estimated as,
and 𝑚𝑘+1 , the measurement model can therefore be defined as:
𝜀𝑘+1 = 𝑧𝑘+1 − 𝑧̃ 𝑘+1 (17)
𝑧𝑘+1 = (𝑎𝑘+1 , 𝑚𝑘+1 , 𝛩𝑘+1 ) + 𝑣𝑘+1 (11)
with 𝑧̃ 𝑘+1 = (𝐗𝑘+1|𝑘 ). Finally, the innovation, 𝜀𝑘+1 , is used as an
Here 𝑣𝑘+1 denotes measurement noise realized from a SWGN mea- output feedback in order to correct the state mean and error covariance
surement uncertainty model  (0; 𝐑), with 𝐑 being the time invariant prediction as,
measurement noise covariance.
𝐗𝑘+1|𝑘+1 = 𝐗𝑘+1|𝑘 + 𝐊𝑘+1 𝜀𝑘+1
(18)
3.4. JEKF-based joint estimation of states and parameters 𝐏𝑘+1|𝑘+1 = [𝐈 − 𝐊𝑘+1 𝐇𝑘+1 ]𝐏𝑘+1|𝑘
The approach is elaborated in Algorithm 1 with a pseudo-code for
It is evident from the system equations in (10) and (11) that the
the same.
state evolution as well as the measurement mapping is nonlinear, which
calls for nonlinear filter variants to be employed for estimation. EKF
being one of the efficient approaches for nonlinear system estimation Algorithm 1: JEKF-based joint estimation.
that extends the applicability of KF for nonlinear systems (and hence 1: I. Estimating the state-parameters
the name Extended-KF) is therefore employed in this attempt. With the 2: 1. Initialization:
mentioned process and measurement equation, EKF is employed in this 3: When k = 0; 𝐗0|0 , 𝐏0|0 , Q, R ⊳ Initial values
study for estimation of the state 𝑎 and the model parameters 𝑚𝑘 and 4: 2. Prediction:
𝛩𝑘 . In order to estimate a nonlinear system, EKF linearizes the system 5: for 𝑘 = 1, 2, … , 𝑁𝐿 − 1 do ⊳ 𝑁𝐿 is the percentage of available data
locally by employing Taylor’s first order expansion. Subsequently, a cycles out of total cycles 𝑁𝑇
KF based estimation approach can be employed, elaborated in the 6: 𝐗𝑘+1|𝑘 =  (𝐗𝑘|𝑘 ) ⊳ State space function see Eq. (12)
following. The notation 𝐗𝑖|𝑗 for estimated state variable 𝐗 represents 7: 𝐏𝑘+1|𝑘 = 𝚽𝑘 𝐏𝑘|𝑘 𝚽𝑇𝑘 + 𝐐 ⊳ State error covariance matrix see
its estimate at time instant 𝑖 given observation up to and including Eq. (13) [ ]
time instant 𝑗. In the following the initialization, prediction and update 8: 𝚽𝑘 = 𝜕
⊳ Jacobian function of the augmented system
𝜕𝐗 𝐗=𝐗
phases with EKF are detailed. 𝑘|𝑘

To start with the estimation, a reasonable assumption must be made see Eq. (14)
on the initial state estimate 𝐗0|0 along with the state error covariance 9: 3. Update:
(𝐏0|0 ), denoting the amount of certainty in the initial state estimate. It is 10: 𝐒𝑘+1 = 𝐇𝑘+1 𝐏𝑘+1|𝑘 𝐇𝑇𝑘+1 + 𝐑 ⊳ Innovation covariance see
normal to presume a high value for the 𝐏0|0 in the absence of any prior Eq. (15)(a)
knowledge of the initial state values. Besides, the time invariant process 11: 𝐊𝑘+1 = 𝐏𝑘+1|𝑘 𝐇𝑇𝑘+1 𝐒−1 ⊳ Kalman gain see Eq. (15)(b)
[ ] 𝑘+1
and measurement noises, i.e., 𝐐 and 𝐑 are to be assumed as well. 𝜕
12: 𝐇𝑘+1 = 𝜕𝐗 ⊳ Jacobian function of the measurement
𝐗=𝐗𝑘+1|𝑘
While selection of 𝐑 is quite straightforward and can be established by
system see Eq. (16)
directly measuring the statistics of inherent sensor noise, 𝐐 needs to
13: 𝜀𝑘+1 = 𝑧𝑘+1 − 𝑧̃ 𝑘+1 ⊳ Innovation see Eq. (17)
be assumed based on the desired estimation accuracy and promptness.
14: 𝐗𝑘+1|𝑘+1 = 𝐗̂ 𝑘+1|𝑘 + 𝐊𝑘+1 𝜀𝑘+1 ⊳ Updated state mean see
Ideally, the components of 𝐐 (i.e. 𝐐𝑎 , 𝐐𝑚 and 𝐐𝛩 ) allow perturbation
Eq. (18)(a)
to their mean estimates and therefore should be chosen wisely.
For each time iteration, the prior mean estimate for state, i.e, 𝐗𝑘|𝑘 is 15: 𝐏𝑘+1|𝑘+1 = [𝐈 − 𝐊𝑘+1 𝐇𝑘+1 ]𝐏𝑘+1|𝑘 ⊳ Updated state error
propagated in time through the process equation detailed in Eq. (10), covariance see Eq. (18)(b)
as, 16: end for
17: II. State prognosis approach based on estimated parameters
𝐗𝑘+1|𝑘 =  (𝐗𝑘|𝑘 ) (12) [ ]𝑇
18: When k = 𝑁𝐿 ; 𝑎𝑘 𝑚𝑘 𝛩𝑘 =  (𝐗̂ 𝑘|𝑘 ; 𝐏𝑘|𝑘 ) ⊳ Initial conditions
Accordingly, the predicted state error covariance matrix can be esti- 19: Prognosis:
mated as: 20: for 𝑘 = 𝑁𝐿 , … , 𝑁𝑃 do ⊳ 𝑁𝑃 Number of cycles in prognosis, till
the crack reaches to critical value
𝐏𝑘+1|𝑘 = Φ𝑘 𝐏𝑘|𝑘 Φ𝑇𝑘 + 𝐐 (13) 21: 𝑎𝑘+1 = 𝑓 (𝑎𝑘 , 𝑚𝑘 , 𝐶𝑘 ) ⊳ see Eq. (8)
𝛷𝑘 denotes the Jacobian matrix of the augmented system equation 22: end for
around current state estimate 𝐗𝑘|𝑘 , elaborated as:
4. Numerical study
⎡ 𝜕𝑓1 (𝑎) 𝜕𝑓1 (𝑎) 𝜕𝑓1 (𝑎) ⎤
[ ] ⎢ 𝜕𝑎 𝜕𝑚 𝜕𝛩 ⎥
𝜕
Φ𝑘 = = ⎢ 0 1 0 ⎥ 𝑎=𝑎𝑘|𝑘 , 𝑚=𝑚𝑘|𝑘 , 𝛩=𝛩𝑘|𝑘 The proposed approach has been validated with three sets of exper-
𝜕𝐗 𝐗=𝐗𝑘|𝑘
⎢ 0 𝜕𝑓2 (𝑎) 𝜕𝑓2 (𝑎) ⎥
⎣ 𝜕𝑚 𝜕𝛩 ⎦ iments: two numerical, and one real experiment in order to establish
the efficacy of the proposal. The flow chart of the proposed approach
(14)
is given in Fig. 3. The first numerical experiment deals with thermo-
With the propagated statistics, the Kalman gain 𝐊𝑘+1 can then be mechanical loading on a finite plate for which the crack propagation is
calculated from the associated innovation covariance 𝐒𝑘+1 matrix as, modeled within the MATLAB environment. The required SIFs are sim-
ulated using a high-fidelity FE model prepared with ABAQUS. Further,
𝐒𝑘+1 = 𝐇𝑘+1 𝐏𝑘+1|𝑘 𝐇𝑇𝑘+1 + 𝐑 the proposed approach is employed to estimate this apparently known
(15) system parameters and states using its crack propagation history over
𝐊𝑘+1 = 𝐏𝑘+1|𝑘 𝐇𝑇𝑘+1 𝐒−1
𝑘+1 loading cycles data. The objective of this study is to cross check if at
with 𝐇𝑘+1 being the Jacobian of the measurement equation (cf. all the proposed algorithm drives the state and parameter estimates to
Eq. (11)) around the propagated state estimate 𝐗𝑘+1|𝑘 as: their apriori assumed true values or not. Also, with the converged esti-
[ ] mate, fatigue crack prognosis is envisaged and the prediction accuracy
𝜕
𝐇𝑘+1 = (16) or precision has been monitored for different measurement noise levels.
𝜕𝐗 𝐗=𝐗𝑘+1|𝑘

5
E. Kuncham et al.
Fig. 2. Typical fatigue crack growth curve.
In the following, a real life welded gusset joint in a bridge structure
subjected to fatigue loading has been modeled with ABAQUS in order
to simulate the corresponding crack growth history. With the similar
data depicting crack growth over loading cycles, the systems fatigue
prognosis is attempted (and also compared with the actual prediction)
in order to establish the potential and applicability of the algorithm
for real life infrastructures having complex geometries. Next, a CT
specimen is subjected to fatigue loading and crack propagation over
loading cycle is monitored. A part of the monitored data is employed for
the system estimation while the remaining part is employed for cross
checking the validity of the prognosis results. Each of the experiments
are detailed in the following.
4.1. Three dimensional finite plate
Finite element solutions are validated by mesh convergence studies.
An 8-node linear brick element (C3D8R) is used in this study for
the simulation. An initial discrete finite element mesh of 20 X 20 is
considered for the center crack problem. Moreover, it was extended
Fig. 3. Flowchart of the proposed approach.
6
Theoretical and Applied Fracture Mechanics 117 (2022) 103143
Fig. 4. Mesh convergence test for center crack under mechanical loading.
The mesh size refers to the number of elements in one direction of the specimen.
up to the point where the solution converges to an acceptable error
level with a stable value, as shown in Fig. 4. The optimal discrete finite
element mesh is 100 × 100 with the total number of elements and nodes
as 1,80,000 and 3,94,022 respectively. In subsequent simulations the
same element size (0.5 mm × 0.5 mm) is used to calculate the mode I
SIFs.
Based on the proposed algorithm, a system is created in the MAT-
LAB program by satisfying all above criteria. This program is then used
to simulate the center and edge crack growth in a component subjected
to fatigue loading. The solutions obtained from this MATLAB code are
compared with analytical solutions.
Since, with the proposed approach, the estimation of the fatigue life
of a cracked specimen imperatively takes basis on numerically simu-
lated SIFs, they should ideally be validated apriori to the corresponding
benchmarks to ensure reliability. For this, a finite homogeneous plate
with edge and center crack are modeled separately. In the edge crack
model, a square plate with width (b) and height (2 h) of the plate
were modeled with 50 mm each having a uniform thickness of 9 mm.
A 5 mm long crack (a) is positioned at the left edge of the plate.
The elastic modulus and Poisson’s ratio are assumed to be 71700 MPa
E. Kuncham et al. Theoretical and Applied Fracture Mechanics 117 (2022) 103143

Table 1
Comparison of mode I SIF results with analytical values.
Location Crack length a (mm) 5 7 9 11 13 15
√ Abaqus XFEM 389.5 488.9 593.7 707.3 832.6 969.9
𝐾𝐼 (MPa 𝑚)
Edge Analytical values 379.1 469.6 563.2 665.0 778.9 908.9
Deviation (%) −2.67 −3.95 −5.13 −5.99 −6.45 −6.28
√ Abaqus XFEM 238.2 281.4 319.2 349.5 373.9 402.3
𝐾𝐼 (MPa 𝑚)
Center Analytical values 225.5 268.4 306.7 342.5 376.8 410.7
Deviation (%) −5.32 −4.62 −3.91 −2.02 0.78 2.08

and 0.33 respectively. The bottom edge is constrained only in the 𝑦- Table 2
EKF parameters for finite plate experiment.
direction and a tensile load of 36 kN is applied at the other edge of
the plate. Similarly, a square plate with equal width (2b) and height Parameters Type Numerical values

(2 h) of 50 mm and a centrally located crack with width (2a) 5 mm are 𝑎𝑜 True value 5 mm
m True value 3.88
considered for center crack problem. The other required properties are
𝛩 True value 34
similar as of the edge crack problem. A schematic is further presented 𝑎0|0 Initial estimate  (5, 1)
in Fig. 5 to demonstrate the boundary conditions in detail. Next, SIFs 𝑚0|0 Initial estimate  (3, 2)
are obtained using ABAQUS-XFEM for crack size 𝑎 ∈ {5 mm, 40 mm} 𝛩0|0 Initial estimate  (27.65, 14.44)
with 2 mm increment. 𝑃0|0 Initial state covariance diag(0,0,0)
Q Process noise covariance diag(1.43 × 10−8 , 𝑚0|0 × 10−3 , 𝛩0|0 × 10−5 )
Anticipating mode-I failure to occur, the numerically obtained SIFs √
𝛥𝐾𝑡ℎ Deterministic 4 MPa 𝑚
are therefore compared in Table 1 against the benchmark provided by √
𝛥𝐾𝐼𝐶 Deterministic 48 MPa 𝑚
Tada et al. [49] for an edge and center crack. The results demonstrate 𝜎𝑓′ Deterministic 150 MPa
that the simulated mode I SIF (𝐾𝐼 ) are in good agreement with the 𝑣𝑐𝑟 Deterministic 2.5 × 10−3 mm/cycles
analytical values.
The numerically obtained SIFs are used to simulate fatigue crack
growth for a constant amplitude applied load of 𝑃𝑚𝑎𝑥 = 36 kN and
Subsequently, estimation of states and parameters are undertaken
𝑃𝑚𝑖𝑛 = 3.6 kN with R = 0.1. The crack growth time history data is
for all combinations of available information and noise contamination
simulated by using Eq. (8).
levels. Fig. 6 presents the convergence of the statistical estimates (mean
and variance) for the parameters (i.e. 𝛩 and 𝑚) with increasing levels of
4.1.1. State-parameters estimation and prediction
information with noise of 5% SNR. The elaborate details of each figure
In the following, the proposed approach is employed to estimate the is given therein. While the mean of the parameters can be observed to
system states and parameters from the crack growth time history data. be converging to their respective true values for both the parameters
In this attempt, different levels of information (10%, 25%, 50%, 75%, very fast even with 10% of the available information, its precision
and 90% of the complete data) were employed for estimation as well (represented through the parameter distribution) is converging with
as prediction in order to envisage the level of estimation/prediction more information. Eventually, with 90% information the estimation
accuracy achievable with the proposed approach with respect to the uncertainty is sufficiently low with its accuracy and precision both are
available data. Further, for the sake of a realistic experiment, the within acceptable limits.
simulated crack growth time history data is also contaminated with
Next, the accuracy and precision for crack growth prediction have
SWGN processes as measurement noise. To create noise contamina-
been envisaged. The pertinent results are presented in Fig. 7(a). It
tion levels, signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) measure is used, in which a
has been observed that with increasing information level, it is more
SWGN process is realized as noise of having a fraction of power of
likely to arrest the actual crack growth within the prediction band.
the actual signal. Different SNR levels (0%, 1%, 2%, 5%, and 10%)
Thus, even though with 10, 20 or 50% information, the parameter
are experimented with in this study. For several studies targeting
estimates are sufficiently accurate, the prognostic results with those
probabilistic fatigue life estimation for bridges [5,50] crack length has
estimates are not very accurate. Eventually, it can be perceived that
been defined as random variable in order to probabilistically estimate
the fatigue crack prognosis depends on the level of information. Next,
them from SHM data. Similarly, the Paris model parameters also have
the noise sensitivity of the proposed algorithm has been investigated.
been projected as Gaussian random variables [5,50]. Current study
In this attempt, the number of cycles until the 𝛥𝐾𝑒𝑓 𝑓 reaches the
attempts similar approaches with crack length and model parameters
critical condition is compared against its true value and subsequently
as a random variables that are estimated using available crack growth
the deviations are presented in Fig. 7(b). It has been observed that the
history. Accordingly, in order to carry out simulations, the initial crack
estimation accuracy is vastly affected by the noise contamination levels.
length and Paris model parameters are used from the works of [5,22].
Eventually, with noise free data, the estimation has been observed to
An uncertainty analysis should always be performed before defining a
be perfect irrespective of the information level. For noisy data, it has
parameter as deterministic or stochastic [51]. However, in this study,
been seen that noise effect can be reduced by recursive estimation em-
the parametric uncertainty for the Paris model parameters is only
ploying more information. Further, similar experiments are performed
considered assuming it to be epistemic and therefore reducible through
for center crack and the estimation sensitivity is found to be similar for
inferencing, while other sources of uncertainty including uncertain
both the cases.
loading, modeling inaccuracies due to other uncertain parameters and
modeling assumptions and sensor noises are assumed aleatoric and
subsequently examined under process and measurement noises. The 4.2. Thermo-mechanical loading
explicit details of the initial assumptions on the state and parameter,
their characteristic and distribution as well as fracture parameters of In the following, similar to the previous numerical experiment,
the assumed material has been presented in Table 2. The loading the efficacy of the algorithm is validated for thermo-mechanical load-
cycle steps (𝛥𝑁) have been chosen to be consistently 10 cycles. It is ing conditions. Accordingly, SIFs specific to this loading type have
assumed that when 𝛥𝐾𝑒𝑓 𝑓 exceeds a predefined 𝛥𝐾𝑐𝑟 , the structure been computed as before. In this process, thermo-mechanical loading
reaches the critical state forwarding the crack growth into region III is created by superimposing the mechanical and thermal loading as
and subsequently leading to a catastrophic failure. presented in Fig. 8. Similar finite plate, as in the earlier experiment,

7
E. Kuncham et al. Theoretical and Applied Fracture Mechanics 117 (2022) 103143

Fig. 5. Crack domain under mechanical loading condition.

Fig. 6. Estimation of parameter 𝑚 (above) and 𝛩 (below).

The investigation is performed for different levels of available data with 5% SNR. The test structure consists of an edge crack and the response is simulated under a cyclic mechanical loading
of 𝑃𝑚𝑎𝑥 = 36 kN and 𝑃𝑚𝑖𝑛 = 3.6 kN with R = 0.1. The true value for the parameters are presented with the dashed line. The inset figure demonstrates that the parameter estimation has been
prompt and accurate. It can also be seen from the estimation of parameter distribution that the peak is slowly reaching towards the true value while the distribution is getting narrower and
thereby more precise.

is considered with a similar boundary and loading condition with the
initial crack length of 5 mm. The material properties are assumed to
vary with temperature and the respective functional relationship is
defined following the articles [52,53].
Considering typical Indian tropical climatic conditions, the ambient
temperature has been realistically assumed to lie in between 25 ◦ C to
50 ◦ C. The initial temperature (unstressed condition) of the specimen is
fixed at 𝑇1 = 50 ◦ C which is then dropped down to 𝑇2 = 25 ◦ C to induce
a tensile stress within the plate. The other specifications pertinent to
crack growth simulation or estimation have been kept the same as the
earlier experiments and their exclusive detailing is avoided here for the
sake of compactness.
Similar estimation approaches were attempted with the crack
growth thermo-mechanical loading and the results are presented in
Figs. 9 and 10. The results appeared to be similar to the earlier ex-
periment demonstrating the fact that the proposed algorithm is equally
efficient for both the loading scenarios.

8
E. Kuncham et al.
Fig. 7. Deviation in estimation and prognosis under mechanical loading.
True curve is simulated using the true values of Paris law parameters by traditional method for crack propagation. The mean crack length estimate is presented along with its 95 percentile
confidence band is shown in the area.
Fig. 8. Superposition of SIF with mechanical and thermal loading to determine the thermo-mechanical loading.
Table 3
Comparing the number of cycles in different scenarios.
Loading Mechanical Thermo-mechanical
Location Center Edge Center
Number of cycles 7319430 631750 897660
To identify the worst-case scenario under both loading types and
crack positions, all possible combinations are tested under similar
external loading and material properties. Table 3 shows the comparison
between the number of loading cycles the specimen needs to fail under
mechanical and thermo-mechanical loading conditions with both crack
positions. Evidently, it can be perceived that an edge crack renders the
structure more vulnerable to fatigue induced failure than the center
crack. Further, it is also observed that thermo-mechanical loading
accelerates the fatigue damage substantially. This eventually prompted
us to consider edge crack with thermo-mechanical loading for further
experiments with bridge joints.
5. Bridge joint
Typically, fatigue cracks initiate around the location of substantial
geometric variation such as bends or notches [54]. In particular for
bridge structures, the gusset plate in the welded joint can be considered
Theoretical and Applied Fracture Mechanics 117 (2022) 103143
as one of such critical components vulnerable to fatigue crack initiation
leading to overall structural failure. It should be mentioned here that in
this study the welding has been assumed to be perfect for all joints and
Edge as such is not prone to fatigue damage. The following numerical ex-
134030
periment focuses on validation of the proposed approach for a real life
civil infrastructure and accordingly a bridge structure is adopted from
the article of [55]. The corresponding geometric details are presented
in Fig. 11(a).
The geometrical function required for SIF calculation for structures
of simple geometries is discussed in abundance in the literature [49].
However, connections of real life bridge structures are of complex
geometries and therefore require special attention for the correspond-
ing geometrical function and associated SIF calculation. Eventually,
structure-specific geometrical function (and subsequently SIF) calcula-
tion is the possible breakthrough. For this reason, XFEM models are em-
ployed with simulated cracks of different length, and subsequently the
SIFs are computed numerically for different loading conditions. Struc-
ture specific geometry function is further optimized through fitting a
higher order polynomial.
With Bayesian filtering based approaches for fatigue damage prog-
nosis, this study adopts the predictor model based estimation approach
for a bridge structure with fatigue damage. Since such an approach im-
peratively needs a high-fidelity numerical model (e.g., XFEM models),
the accuracy and computational cost of the overall process is dependent
9
E. Kuncham et al. Theoretical and Applied Fracture Mechanics 117 (2022) 103143

Fig. 9. Estimation of parameter 𝑚 (above) and 𝛩 (below) under a harmonic thermo-mechanical loading.

Fig. 10. Deviation in estimation and prognosis under thermo-mechanical loading.

on the model dimension. Clearly, simulating the entire bridge structure
for fatigue damage is not only computationally expensive but also not
practical. As a measure, a simplified model of the bridge is firstly sim-
ulated under usual service loading conditions and member force time
histories are obtained. From this investigation, the joint with maximum
stress can easily be isolated, for which further fatigue modeling is
performed.
In order to determine the geometry function of this welded joint of
complicated geometry, an uncracked numerical model (cf. Fig. 11(b))
replicating only the joint is created as a substructure. The interface
boundaries are further subjected to member forces obtained during the
simplistic model simulation. The structure is fixed at the centroid of the
main chord on both sides and constrained by rigid body mechanisms.
Bottom ends of the web members are also constrained by rigid body
mechanisms. Solid elements and 3D surface-to-surface contact pairs
with perfect bonding were used to model the effects of the contact
between the gusset plate and main chord, and also the contact between
the web and the gusset plate. There are 45,144 elements and 83,064
nodes in this numerical model. The thermal properties of the material
is adopted following the works of [52], and also presented in Table 4.
The bridge is simulated under a thermo-mechanical loading in which
the base temperature of 50 ◦ C is reduced to 25 ◦ C to induce thermal
stress.

10
E. Kuncham et al. Theoretical and Applied Fracture Mechanics 117 (2022) 103143

Fig. 11. Numerical model of the bridge joint.

Table 4
Material properties of steel at different temperatures.
Temperature (◦ C) Elastic modulus (MPa) Poisson’s ratio Thermal expansion coefficient (1/◦ C)
25 206 × 103 0.296 12 × 10−6
50 205 × 103 0.301 12.105 × 10−6

Accordingly, the zone of stress concentration in the joint is iden- Table 5

EKF parameters for bridge joint experiment.
tified near the bend of the gusset plate (c.f. Fig. 11(b)). It can be
presumed without any loss of generality that a possible fatigue crack Parameters Type Numerical values

should ideally be initiated from this high stressed zone. The SIF can be 𝑎𝑜 True value 10 mm
m True value 3.4
calculated using the algorithm presented in Section 3.1. With geometry
𝛩 True value 30.55
function obtained as before, the SIF under a particular real variable 𝑎0|0 Initial estimate  (10, 1)
amplitude loading can be obtained considering the fracture mode, crack 𝑚0|0 Initial estimate  (3, 2)
shape and specimen geometry [56–58]. 𝛩0|0 Initial estimate  (43.27, 11.46)
𝑃0|0 Initial state covariance diag(0,0,0)
Next, in order to further reduce the computational expense, the Q Process noise covariance diag(1.43 × 10−8 , 𝑚0|0 × 10−3 , 𝛩0|0 × 10−5 )
√
high stressed zone is modeled separately and simulated with an edge 𝛥𝐾𝑡ℎ Deterministic 7 MPa 𝑚
√
crack under the equivalent thermo-mechanical loading obtained from 𝛥𝐾𝐼𝐶 Deterministic 100 MPa 𝑚
the previous model. For this, the high stressed zone is modeled as a 𝜎𝑓′ Deterministic 450 MPa
plate in which an equivalent load of 22.25 kN is applied with R = 0.1 𝑣𝑐𝑟 Deterministic 3 × 10−2 mm/cycles

while maintaining the boundary interface as the boundary condition.

An initial crack length 10 mm is considered to be present in the plate
and the simulation is continued till the crack reaches
√ the length its
critical value of 41.25 mm (i.e. 𝐾𝐼𝐶 = 100 Mpa 𝑚 [47]). The initial
values for the crack length and Paris model parameters used for the
simulation are taken from the works of [18,47]. A detailed description
of the preliminary assumptions about the state and parameters of the
assumed material is discussed in Section 4.1.1. Their characteristics and
distribution, as well as the assumed fracture parameters are presented
in Table 5. The proposed algorithm is further employed to estimate the
fatigue life from the crack growth history simulated from this numerical
model which is later contaminated with 1% SNR SWGN, as before.
The crack growth history is further employed with the proposed
approach to simultaneously estimate the crack size while estimating
the pertinent Paris model parameters. The results of both the parameter
estimation are given in Figs. 12 in which convergence of mean estimate
along with the associated estimation uncertainty is presented. It can
be verified that the estimates are not only prompt but also precise.
Further, the crack size estimation and prognosis and their sensitivity
towards data size and noise contamination is presented in Figs. 13(a)
and 13(b) from which it can be perceived that the proposed method
can practically perform the crack prognosis well ahead in time being
within practical levels of noise contamination.
6. Experiment study
Finally, the proposed algorithm is tested on crack growth time
history data obtained from a real laboratory level experiment on a
CT specimen performed by [59]. In this experiment, the fatigue crack
growth rates were monitored and subsequently 𝛩 and 𝑚 values are
estimated as 𝐶0 and 𝑚0 using the complete test data following the
guidelines provided in ASTM E647 standard [60]. Subsequently, the
same dataset is employed with the proposed online algorithm and the
Paris model parameters are estimated in real time before comparing
them to their corresponding earlier estimates.
The CT specimen adopted for this experiment is made of 12.5 mm
thick aluminum alloy (AA 5754) with a V-notch of length 12 mm
created using an electric discharge machine following the test speci-
fications. The geometry of the test specimen is presented in Fig. 14(a).
In order to control the crack propagation direction during the fatigue
test, a sharp crack of 1 mm is machined as a precrack at the notch tip of
the specimen by applying a fatigue load of 4 kN and 10 Hz frequency to
the specimen. The crack growth at each load step is measured using a
Crack Opening Displacement (COD) gauge patched on to the specimen.

11
E. Kuncham et al. Theoretical and Applied Fracture Mechanics 117 (2022) 103143

Fig. 12. Estimation of parameter 𝑚 (above) and 𝛩 (below) for the case of equivalent gusset plate under harmonic thermo-mechanical loading.

Fig. 13. Estimation and prognosis of equivalent gusset plate under harmonic thermo-mechanical loading.

Fig. 14(b) illustrates the experimental setup. The detailed experimental Table 6
Parameters calculated from experimental and assumed data.
procedure can be corroborated from [59].
Paris model parameters 𝑎𝑐 𝐾𝐼𝐶 𝑣𝑐𝑟 𝑄𝐾 𝑅𝐾 N
The specimen used in this validation study is tested for only tensile √
𝐶0 𝑚0 (mm) (Mpa 𝑚) (mm/cycles)
loading. The test takes place under a fatigue load of constant frequency
5 Hz throughout with a 𝛥𝑃 of 4 kN and 𝑅 = 0.2. The experiment is 1.35 × 10−11 2.95 32.19 28 2.58 × 10−3 19.08 0.77 67033

carried out till the crack reaches its critical value of 41.25 mm. The
geometry function of the specimen is adopted from the handbook [49].
Fig. 15(a) shows the experimental fatigue crack growth curves for the the 𝐶 and 𝑚 are obtained through fitting all the observations by a
CT specimen. A linear relationship in the form of a sigmoidal curve least-square regression approach. The other parameters required for
𝑑𝑎
has been observed between 𝑑𝑁 and 𝛥K when plotted with log–log prediction (i.e. 𝑎𝑐 , 𝑣𝑐𝑟 , 𝐾𝐼𝐶 , 𝑁) are also obtained are shown in Table 6.
−4 −2
scale. The range [10 − 10 ] mm/cycles for crack growth rate has
further been identified as the zone II of fatigue cracking which is also Similar to the numerical experiments, the proposed algorithm is
evident from Fig. 15(b). Traditional approaches for offline estimation employed for fatigue damage prognosis for the CT specimen using the
of Paris model parameters are adopted in the following in which measured crack growth time history. Again, the prognosis is attempted

12
E. Kuncham et al.
Fig. 14. Fatigue crack growth test setup.
Fig. 15. Experimental results of CT specimen.
with different levels of available measurement and the accuracy and
precision for the prediction can be corroborated from Fig. 17(b). Also,
Figs. 16 and 17 demonstrates the level of accuracy and promptness
in estimating the Paris model parameters when compared to the cor-
responding 𝐶0 and 𝑚0 obtained using the complete data. It can be
observed that the estimation for 𝐶 and 𝑚 are not matching with the
𝐶0 and 𝑚0 even after assimilating 90% of the measured data. However,
the same estimate is observed to yield better prognosis results (C.f.
Fig. 17(a)) compared to the prognosis with 𝐶0 and 𝑚0 . This demon-
strates the practicality with deterministic approaches which may at
times overfit the data, while the proposed approach takes the basis
of the past belief and therefore assimilates the new data based on its
likelihood. This clearly establishes the fact that the proposed approach
is more efficient in the context of damage prognosis. However, to
calculate the SIF in reality, the loading conditions are assumed as
known in advance and the geometry function is considered as per the
guidelines provided in the handbook [49].
The idea of this experiment is to mimic the real field testing in which
the location of the crack is known. Accordingly, the alternating stresses
that are coming on to the cracked domain can be estimated through
analyzing the structure globally. The SIF can further be made available
through a rigorous numerical analysis involving the geometry function
of the cracked domain. Finally, through monitoring the crack over time
13
Theoretical and Applied Fracture Mechanics 117 (2022) 103143
using instruments like crack meter, the crack growth history can be
recorded from which Paris model parameters can be estimated online
using the proposed filtering based approach. Eventually, the estimate
gets better with each measurement set made available and as such do
not demand the complete measurement at once, allowing ever evolving
estimates that ensure better accuracy in RUL estimation than traditional
offline approaches.
7. Conclusions
In this paper, an online model-based prognosis algorithm powered
by a Bayesian filtering based estimation approach has been proposed
focusing on predicting the service life of civil infrastructural compo-
nents vulnerable to fatigue failure. The approach takes its basis on
defining the crack growth with an updated Paris law model and sub-
sequently estimating the associated parameters under the unavoidable
measurement and process uncertainty. The adoption of the updated
Paris law model helps incorporate the crack closure effects into the
estimation, while the consideration of uncertainty in estimation renders
the proposed approach more pragmatic and suitable to be used for
real life applications. The proposed algorithm consists of two sequential
steps: 1. state-parameter estimation using JEKF filter, and 2. prediction
of crack growth based on the estimated parameters.
E. Kuncham et al. Theoretical and Applied Fracture Mechanics 117 (2022) 103143

Fig. 16. Estimation of parameter 𝑚 (above) and 𝛩 (below) at different level of experimental data of an CT specimen.

Fig. 17. Estimation and prognosis for CT specimen based on experimental data.
The investigation is performed for an estimation of the 𝑁 using Deterministic (𝐷𝑒𝑡) and Bayesian filter (𝐵𝑎𝑦) approaches by the measured crack growth time history. The results are compared
with the true values and proved that the Bayesian filter is more accurate than the deterministic. As information levels increase, it is more likely to arrest the crack growth within the prediction
band.

The following was experienced:
• Application of stochastic inverse estimation technique using EKF
based filtering approach for fatigue life estimation helped to deal
with process uncertainty (model inaccuracy) in simultaneity with
the measurement uncertainty.
• Unlike traditional offline approaches, that demands a sufficiently
long crack growth history in order to conclude on the RUL, the
present study takes an online approach that ensures smooth con-
vergence towards the actual RUL gradually using on the available
data. It has been observed that, even with 10% of the available
information, the mean estimates of the parameters reach at least
in the vicinity of the respective true values. The estimation is
further improved with the availability of the data.
• Being a recursive data assimilation based approach, the estima-
tion accuracy is observed to be largely affected by noise contam-
ination levels.
• The edge crack makes the structure more vulnerable to fatigue
failure than the center crack. In addition, it is also found that
thermo-mechanical loading advances fatigue damage dramati-
cally. Accordingly, a combination of edge crack with thermo-
mechanical loading is considered as the worst operational sce-
nario towards investigating the proposed approach for the RUL
estimation in the bridge joints.

14
E. Kuncham et al.
• The present approach provided not only the mean estimates of the
parameters or RUL, but also the confidence interval around those
estimates. This makes the approach more practical and suitable
for real life application.
• Taking the basis on the experimental and numerical case studies,
the proposed approach is perceived to be more efficient in the
context of damage prognosis in comparison with deterministic ap-
proaches. Also, the proposed approach is experienced to be quite
accurate under practical loading conditions and robust against
moderate level noise contamination.
Eventually, it can be concluded that the proposed approach is a
good candidate to estimate RUL of civil infrastructure under fatigue
loading with sufficient accuracy and promptness. Future work will
involve the use of the proposed algorithm on real bridge structures for
their RUL estimation.
Declaration of competing interest
The authors declare that they have no known competing finan-
cial interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to
influence the work reported in this paper.
Appendix A. Supplementary data
Supplementary material related to this article can be found online
at https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tafmec.2021.103143.
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