Changing Security Scenarios

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TODAY'S PAPER | JULY 09, 2023
Changing security scenarios

Muhammad Amir Rana | Published July 9, 2023 | Updated about 5 hours ago

https://www.dawn.com/news/1763757/changing-security-scenarios 1/14
7/9/23, 2:22 PM Changing security scenarios - Newspaper - DAWN.COM
The writer is a security analyst.
0:00 / 7:23 1x 1.2x 1.5x

THE trilateral dialogue between China, Iran and
Pakistan last month was a significant development
following the Saudi Arabia-Iran peace deal
facilitated by China earlier this year. This dialogue

aimed to reduce mistrust between Iran and
Pakistan, broadening the prospects for enhanced
security and economic cooperation.
This could be good news for Balochistan, which faces

security and economic integration issues. However, the
benefits of any productive output reaching the province
depend on the intentions of state institutions. In the
regional security and political context, credit goes to
Chinese diplomacy for resolving hurdles in bilateral
relations among the countries involved in the Belt and
Road Initiative (BRI) and its associated projects.
For China, terrorism poses a major concern for the safety

of BRI projects and regional cooperation, making it a
prime enemy of terrorist groups. However, China is
positioned to assume a leading role in the fight against
terrorism, employing a distinct strategy compared to the
US-led coalition in Afghanistan and the Middle East.
China’s objective focuses on fostering trust and assisting
nations in addressing their respective issues. But China
does not intend to engage directly in military campaigns
against terrorist groups in the region, including the TTP, Al
Qaeda, IS-K, or Baloch insurgents targeting its nationals in
Pakistan. From the Chinese perspective, establishing trust

between Iran and Pakistan is important for regional
stability.
China’s resolution framework aims to help states enhance

their capacities to combat terrorism. Most terrorism
threats are interstate, and weak counterterrorism
cooperation between states undermines their ability to
fight terrorist groups. For instance, Iran has frequently
expressed concerns about the presence of Jaishul Adl in the
bordering region with Pakistan, believing it to be a Saudi
proxy with support from Western allies. Pakistan has
formally lodged complaints about Baloch insurgents using
Iranian soil against its security forces and CPEC-related
projects.
China-Pakistan-Iran
collaboration can enhance
regional security.
In May of this year, Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi and

Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif jointly inaugurated a
marketplace and power transmission line at the border
between the two countries. The China-Pakistan-Iran
collaboration can enhance regional security and counter
the activities of the Baloch insurgents who seek refuge in
Iran.
It was hoped that Iran’s Saudi peace pact would facilitate

counterterrorism cooperation between Iran and Pakistan,
and that the Saudis would refrain from supporting anti-
Iranian regime elements. Iran’s entry into the Shanghai
Organisation Cooperation (SCO) has been portrayed as a
move to bring the country into the border security-related
cooperation fold. Many experts conceive it as a move by
China to reduce Indian influence in Iran, which is tasting
bitterness in their bilateral relations, and it has provided
an opportunity for China to facilitate a dialogue between
Iran and Pakistan.
Meanwhile, the regional security dynamics are changing

fast; the terrorist groups are also feeling the heat, and
changing their tactics and struggling hard to expand their
areas of operations.
Recently, a series of attacks occurred on three checkpoints

in the Sherani district along the Zhob-D.I. Khan highway,
resulting in the martyrdom of four security personnel,
including two officers. These areas have been facing TTP
threats, including bombings of mobile phone towers and
attacks on security checkpoints. The banned TTP claimed
responsibility for these attacks. The Jamaat-i-Islami chief
Sirajul Haq narrowly escaped a bomb blast targeting his
convoy near Zhob. In response, security forces launched an
operation in the Sambaza area of Zhob to prevent terrorists
from using suspected routes to cross the Pakistan-
Afghanistan border and infiltrate KP, endangering citizens
and security forces.
Since the Afghan Taliban assumed power in Kabul in

August 2021, religiously motivated groups such as the TTP
have carried out 22 attacks in Balochistan, resulting in the
deaths of 57 individuals. The majority of these attacks,
about 14 in total, were attributed to the TTP, primarily
targeting the Pakhtun areas of Balochistan, including
Quetta, Pishin, Qilla Abdullah (Chaman border), Sherani,
and Zhob. Some attacks also occurred in the Gwadar and
Makran regions, which are crucial for CPEC projects and
the Gwadar port.
The terrorist activities in Balochistan, particularly in the

Pakhtun areas, indicate the hand of the TTP. Recently,
attacks on checkpoints resulted in the martyrdom of four
security personnel and the killing of a suspected terrorist.
It appears that the TTP has decided to create disturbances
in the Pakhtun areas of Balochistan and provoke the
Baloch. The BLA and other insurgent groups are
restraining themselves from joining an open alliance with
the TTP. However, they desire to see large-scale
disturbances in Balochistan, especially in the regions
bordering south Punjab and northern Sindh, which already
struggle with the problem of extremism. These
developments not only threaten Chinese interests in
Balochistan, as previously mentioned, but also jeopardise
stability in the latter province.
The security institutions have successfully countered the

plans of terrorist groups. However, even a few terrorist acts
in a new region raise concerns within the country’s security
circles and abroad. Establishing a trilateral security
mechanism betwe en China, Pakistan and Iran reflects their
shared concerns regarding security in Balochistan. Stability
in Balochistan is crucial for the successful implem
entation
of CPEC projects there. China’s relations with Pakistan and
Iran in and around Afghanistan acquire an interesting

dimension within the regional framework of the SCO. The
troubled situation in Afghanistan is a cause for concern.
Afghanistan, China and Pakistan are also part of a separate

trilateral dialogue on security, and China aims to help
resolve political issues between the two countries.
However, the core strategy suggests China wants to
increase diplomatic pressure on the Taliban regime to take
action against all terrorist groups wholeheartedly.
Otherwise, these groups will continue to hinder
transitional development projects in the region and allow
China’s foes to exploit the situation against it.
This is a significant test for the Afghan Taliban leadership

to address the apprehensions of its neighbours, especially
China, which would be a key economic and diplomatic
friend of the regime if it delivers on its promises.
The writer is a security analyst.
Published in Dawn, July 9th, 2023
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7/9/23, 2:22 PM Changing security scenarios - Newspaper - DAWN.

TODAY'S PAPER | JULY 09, 2023

The writer is a security analyst.

0:00 / 7:23 1x 1.2x 1.5x

facilitated by China earlier this year. This dialogue

This could be good news for Balochistan, which faces

For China, terrorism poses a major concern for the safety

Pakistan. From the Chinese perspective, establishing trust

China’s resolution framework aims to help states enhance

In May of this year, Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi and

It was hoped that Iran’s Saudi peace pact would facilitate

Meanwhile, the regional security dynamics are changing

Recently, a series of attacks occurred on three checkpoints

Since the Afghan Taliban assumed power in Kabul in

The terrorist activities in Balochistan, particularly in the

The security institutions have successfully countered the

Iran in and around Afgha­n­istan acquire an interesting

Afghanistan, China and Pakistan are also part of a separate

This is a significant test for the Afghan Taliban leadership

The writer is a security analyst.

Published in Dawn, July 9th, 2023

PAK IRAN TIES , PAK NEWSPAPER

CHINA TIES

Final Don’t stop Mini forums

DAWN NEWS ENGLISH YouTube 957K

Hague court rules Global forecasters Drone loaded with

Caught in the India

Troubled waters Israeli sojourn

08 Jul, 2023 Updated 08 Jul, 2023 08 Jul, 2023

Ten years of CPEC Ruling by proxy Dirty water

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Iran in and around Afghanistan acquire an interesting