IT1807

Random Variables and their Probability Distributions

Random Variable (a.k.a. chance variable, a stochastic variable, or simply a variate) is a function whose domain is a sample
space and whose range is some set of real numbers. It is usually denoted by capital or uppercase letters of the English
alphabet (e.g., 𝑿), and the possible values of the variables are usually denoted by corresponding lowercase letters (e.g., 𝒙).

 Discrete Random Variable is a random variable that may assume a finite or countable number of possible
outcomes that can be listed.
Examples:
o Number of siblings of an individual
o Number of rings before the phone is answered
o Number of students who were protesting the tuition increase last semester
o Number of accidents at a certain intersection over one (1) years’ time
 Continuous Random Variable is a random variable that may assume an uncountable number of values or possible
outcomes, represented by the intervals on a number line.
Examples:
o The concentration of pollutants in a local water source
o The depth of drilling to find oil

Probability Mass Function (pmf) provides the probabilities 𝑓(𝑥) = 𝑃(𝑋 = 𝑥) for all possible values that a discrete random
variable (𝑥) can take on in the range of 𝑿. This function may be viewed or can be represented as a table, graph, or formula.

Probability Distribution is a function that describes the shape, character, and relative likelihoods of obtaining the possible
values that a random variable can assume.

Reminder:
 A function f from Set A to Set B is a relation in which each element of the domain is paired with exactly one element of
the range. "Each element" implies that every element in the domain is related to some element in the range. "Exactly
one" implies that a function is single-valued. It will not give back two (2) or more results for the same input.
 The domain of a function is defined as the set of all possible input values (commonly the x variable), which produces a
valid output (y-value) from a particular function. In simple language, this is what can go into a function.
 Conversely, the range is the set of all possible output values (commonly the variable y, or sometimes expressed as f(x)),
which results from using a particular function. In simple language, this is what actually comes out of a function.

Sample Problem 1: A wallet contains four (4) ₱100 bills, two (2) ₱200 bills, three (3)₱500 bills, and one (1) ₱1,000 bill.
Construct a probability distribution for the data.
 Step 1: List all possible outcomes. Let the variable X represent the possible totals, and the events are described as follows:
o 𝐸1 is for ₱100 bills (₱100 bill has 4 pieces; thus, 𝑛(𝐸1) = 4)
o 𝐸2 is for ₱200 bills (₱200 bill has 2 pieces; thus, 𝑛(𝐸2) = 2)
o 𝐸3 is for ₱500 bills (₱500 bill has 3 pieces; thus, 𝑛(𝐸3) = 3)
o 𝐸4 is for ₱1,000 bill (₱1,000 bill has 1 piece; thus, 𝑛(𝐸4) = 1).

 Step 2: Identify the outcomes that represent the same event. Find the probability of each event. Thus, the probability
𝑃(𝑥) can be calculated for each 𝑥 by dividing the number of particular bills by the total number of bills.

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 Step 3: Make a table or a histogram in which one column (or x-axis) represents the events, and the other column (or y-
axis) represents the probability. The probability distribution is shown below:

Sample Problem 2: Find the probability distribution of the sum of the numbers when a pair of dice is tossed.
 Step 1: List all possible outcomes. Let the variable X represent the possible totals, and the events are described as follows:
o 𝐸1 is for the 1st die (The die can land in 6 ways (1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6), so we can have 𝑛(𝐸1) = 6).
o 𝐸2 is for the 2nd die (The die can land in 6 ways (1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6), so we can have 𝑛(𝐸2) = 6).

There are 36 possible results. The first number of the ordered pair is the number showing on the first die, and the
second number is the number showing on the second die. Since variable X has finitely many possible values, it is a
discrete random variable.

 Step 2: Identify outcomes that represent the same event. Find the probability of each event. The possible values for X
are the numbers 2 through 12 as shown below:

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 Step 3: Make a table or a histogram in which one column (or x-axis) represents the events, and the other column (or y-
axis) represents the probability. Note that both dice are fair and the rolls are independent. Thus, the probability mass
function of X is computed as follows:

The probabilities 𝑓(2),𝑓(3),...,𝑓(12) in an analogous manner. Continuing this way, we obtain the table below:

The table only includes those numbers 𝑥𝑥 for which 𝑓(𝑥) > 0. And since we include all such numbers, the probabilities
𝑓(𝑥) in the table add to 1.

Expected Values of Random Variables

Sample Problem 3: Construct a probability distribution for the number of heads when three (3) balanced coins are tossed.
 Step 1: List all possible outcomes. Let the variable x represent the possible totals, and the events are described as follows:
o 𝐸1 is for the 1st coin (The coin can land in two [2] ways (head (H), tail (T)), so we can have 𝑛𝑛(𝐸𝐸1) = 2).
o 𝐸2 is for the 2nd coin (The coin can land in two [2] ways (head (H), tail (T)), so we can have 𝑛𝑛(𝐸𝐸2) = 2).
o 𝐸3 is for the 3rd coin (The coin can land in two [2] ways (head (H), tail (T)), so we can have 𝑛𝑛(𝐸𝐸3) = 2).

Since there are three (3) coins, there are a total of eight (8) outcomes. Thus, the sample space has 24 elements as shown
below.

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 Step 2: Identify outcomes that represent the same event. Find the probability of each event. Since we are interested in
the number of heads that occur, there would be four (4) events. Below are the values of X associated with some of the
outcomes.

 Step 3: Make a table or a histogram in which one column (or x-axis) represents the events, and the other column (or y-
axis) represents the probability. Thus, the probability mass function of X is computed as:

From the result above, a probability distribution can be constructed by listing the outcomes and assigning the
probability of each outcome, as follows.

Expected value of a random variable (a.k.a. mean of a probability distribution) is the summation of each value of the
variable multiplied by its probability. The mean, variance, and standard deviation for samples are calculated differently
from the mean, variance, and standard deviation for a probability distribution. For the mean or average of a frequency
distribution, the mean of a probability distribution is a measure of its centrality or location. It is a weighted average, with
the values of the random variable weighted by their probabilities. The mean is also known as the expected value (or
expectation) of a random variable because it is the value that is expected to occur on average.

Mathematically, if a variable X has values 𝑥𝑥1, 𝑥𝑥2, …, 𝑥𝑥𝑛𝑛 (which are the outcomes) and the probabilities 𝑃𝑃(𝑥𝑥1), 𝑃𝑃(𝑥𝑥2),
…, 𝑃𝑃(𝑥𝑥𝑛𝑛) respectively, the expected value of the variable x is given by:
𝐸(𝑥) = [𝑥1 ⋅ 𝑃(𝑥1)] + [𝑥2 ⋅ 𝑃(𝑥2)] + ⋯ + [𝑥𝑛 ⋅ 𝑃(𝑥𝑛)]

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The expected value or mean of any discrete probability distribution can be computed by multiplying each possible value of
the random variable, times the probability, that outcome will occur and summing the results, Σ. The variance of a random
variable with a discrete probability distribution is:
𝛿2 = ∑(𝑋 − 𝜇𝑥)2 ⋅ 𝑃(𝑋 = 𝑥)
Each value of the random variable is subtracted from the expected value, squared, and multiplied, times the probability of
occurrence of that value. The results are then summed to obtain the variance. The standard deviation is just the square
root of the variance. The standard deviation of a random variable with a discrete probability distribution is:
𝛿 = √𝛅𝟐
Sample Problem 4: Costronic Technologies sells iPhones for Apple Inc. It usually sells the number of iPhones on Sunday.
The store manager, Gary, has established the probability distribution for the number of iPhones the store expects to sell on
a particular Sunday.
No of iPhones Sold (X) 0 1 2 3 4 5
Probability P(x) 0.05 0.10 0.12 0.15 0.18 0.40

Note that the store manager expects to sell only within a certain range of iPhone; he does not expect to sell six (6) units of
iPhone. He can only sell 0, 1, 2, 3, 4, or 5 units of iPhone. Thus, we let 𝑥𝑥 be the number of iPhones.
For the expected value:

Where x is the value of the random variable and P (X = x) is the probability of observing the random variable x.

The value denotes that the store manager expects to sell 3.51 iPhones during Sundays.
For variance:

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The Binomial Distribution

Characteristics of the Binomial Distribution
1. The experiment is performed for a fixed number of times. Each repetition of the experiment is called a trial.
2. The trials are independent. This means that the outcome of one (1) trial will not affect the outcome of the other
trials.
3. For each trial, there are two (2) mutually exclusive outcomes, success or failure.
4. The probability of success is fixed for each trial of the experiment.

Binomial Distribution Formula:

Where:
 𝑛 = the number of trials (sample size)
 𝑝 = the probability of a success on any single trial
 𝑟 = the number of successes in sample, (r = 0, 1, 2, ..., n)
 𝑞 = 1 − 𝑝 = the probability of a failure

Sample Problem 4: Tsukiden Electronics Philippines, Inc. is experimenting with the manufacture of a new transistor. Every
hour, a sample of five (5) transistors is taken. The probability of one (1) transistor being defective is 0.15. What is the
probability of finding three (3), four (4), or five (5) defectives?
Solution:
Given:
𝑛=5
𝑝 = 0.15
𝑟= 3, 4, or 5
𝑞= 1 – 0.15 = 0.85
For three (3) defects in five (5) transistors:

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For four (4) defects in five (5) transistors:

For five (5) defects in five (5) transistors:

By adding these three (3) probabilities, the probability that the number of defects is three (3) or more is:

Alternative Solution:
Find the three (3) probabilities in 03 Handout 2 Table 4 Binomial Probability Distribution Table for 𝑛 = 5, 𝑝 = 0.15, and 𝑟 = 3,
4, or 5 and add them together.

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To find these probabilities, look through the 𝑛 = 5 section and find 𝑝 = 0.15 column. In the row where r = 3, we see 0.024.
Hence, 𝑃 (𝑟 = 3) = 0.024. Similarly, 𝑃 (𝑟 = 4) = 0.002 and 𝑃 (𝑟 = 5) = 0.000. By adding these three (3) probabilities, the
probability that the number of defects is three (3) or more is:

The Poisson Distribution

The Poisson Distribution was developed by French mathematician Simeon Denis Poisson, the Poisson probability
distribution is very useful in decision-making with respect to quality control situation, waiting line problems (queue), and
other application to business. It is also useful for determining the probability of a number of occurrences (successes) over a
given time or within a given area or volume

Characteristics of the Poisson Distribution

1. The outcomes of interest are rare relative to the possible outcomes.
2. The average number of outcomes of interest per time or space interval is
3. The number of outcomes of interest is random, and the occurrence of one (1) outcome does not influence
the chances of another outcome of interest.
4. The probability of an outcome of interest that occurs in a given segment is the same for all segments.

Poisson Distribution Formula:

Where:
 𝜇 = is the mean number of occurrences per unit (time, volume, area, etc.)
 𝑒 = is a constant approximately equal to 2.71828... (Actually, 𝑒 is the base of the natural logarithm system.)
 𝑥 = number of occurrences (0, 1, 2, …)

Sample Problem 5: The average number of days that the school is closed due to flood during the storm in a certain city in
the eastern part of the Philippines is 4. What is the probability that the school in this city will close for six (6) days during
a storm?
Solution:
Given:
𝜇=4
𝑥=6
𝑒= 2.71828…

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