PROJECT SUBMISSION

Task 1
● Method of forecasting: I suggest adopting time series analysis, especially the
Exponential Smoothing Method to predict demand for six months which is a short-
term projection. This approach is useful for making short-term forecasts and is
especially suitable for data that shows a trend and seasonality, which is frequently
the case in electronics sector due to seasonal sales, holidays and product release
cycles.

● Justification for the choice of method:

Task 2

● The formula used for forecasting demand: ESF=α*Actual Demand+1- α*Forecast

Demand
● The demand forecast for the next six months is shown in the table below

Month Smartphones (Forecast) Laptops (Forecast) Smartwatches (Forecast)

Jan 2044.92 1023.10 352.48

Feb 2121.44 1061.17 360.74

Mar 2175.01 1087.82 366.52

Apr 2212.51 1106.47 370.56

May 2238.76 1119.53 373.39

Jun 2257.13 1128.67 375.37

Task 3

● The formula used for calculating forecast errors: Forecasting error = (Actual
Demand- Forecast Demand)*100/Actual Demand
● The forecast errors for the six months are shown in the table below

Month Smartphones Laptops Smartwatches

Jan 444.92 268.10 93.48

Feb 472.44 196.17 68.74

Mar 606.01 210.82 116.52

Apr 462.51 183.57 156.56

May 318.76 119.53 173.39

Jun 217.13 28.67 179.37

Task 4
● The formula for calculating MAPE: MAPE=∑{(Actual-Forecast)/Actual}
● MAPE for all product categories for the six months:
Month Smartphones Laptops Smartwatches

Jan 27.81 35.51 36.09

Feb 28.65 22.68 23.54

Mar 38.62 24.04 46.61

Apr 26.43 19.88 73.16

May 16.60 11.95 86.70

Jun 10.64 2.61 91.52

● The formula for calculating Bias: Total Variances (Forecast-Actual)/Total Actual

● Bias for all product categories for the six months:

Month Smartphones Laptops Smartwatches

Jan 0.042 0.0486 0.0662

Feb 0.045 0.0355 0.0487

 Mar 0.058 0.0382 0.0825

Apr 0.044 0.0332 0.1109

May 0.030 0.0217 0.1228

Jun 0.021 0.0052 0.1271

Task 5
● Recommendations:
○ Recommendation 1 + Justification
○ Recommendation 2 + Justification
Recommendation 3 + Justification