Pivoting to New

Opportunities
H2-2023 Equities Market Outlook
Our Score Card (January 2023 – June 2023)

January-23 June-23 Return

Company
(₦) (₦) (%)

Total Energies 193.00 350.00 81.3%

Seplat 1,100.00 1,399.80 27.3%
Zenith Bank 24.00 34.25 42.7%
Access Holdings 8.50 16.60 95.3%
Average
UBA 7.60 12.25 61.2%
Return:
MTN Nigeria 215.00 273.40 27.2%
34.5%
Airtel Africa 1,635.00 1,319.90 -19.3%
Nigerian Breweries 41.00 45.00 9.8%
Lafarge Africa 24.00 29.50 22.9%
Dangote Cement 261.00 285.00 9.2%
Nestle 1,100.00 1,250.00 13.6%
Okomu Oil 165.00 235.00 42.4%
The Market is
Driven by
Information
Drivers of the Equities Market in H1-2023
Q1 - Pre-Election
• Impressive 2022 full-year earnings
• Dividend declaration
• Political activities
• Poor rating from Moody’s
Q2 - Post-Election
• Inauguration of President Bola Ahmed Tinubu
• The liberalization of the FX market
• Suspension of the CBN Governor
• The return of foreign investors
• Cheaper stock price valuation due to the devaluation of the
currency
• Increase in money flow to the equity market 4
Equities Market Sector Performance in H1-2023

62,000
NGX ALL SHARE INDEX
(Dec 2022 – June 2023)

60,000

Surge due to the economic

policies, and inflow from
58,000
foreign investors

Decline due to
Rally due to
Profit taking and negative
56,000 corporate earnings
rating from Moody’s
and dividend
announcement

54,000

52,000

50,000

5
 -
50,000.00
70,000.00

60,000.00

30,000.00

10,000.00
40,000.00

20,000.00
29-Mar-02
31-Jul-02
29-Nov-02
31-Mar-03
31-Jul-03
28-Nov-03
31-Mar-04
30-Jul-04
30-Nov-04
31-Mar-05
29-Jul-05
The peak of the
market in 2008

30-Nov-05
31-Mar-06
31-Jul-06
30-Nov-06
30-Mar-07
31-Jul-07
30-Nov-07
31-Mar-08
31-Jul-08
28-Nov-08
31-Mar-09
31-Jul-09
30-Nov-09
26-Feb-10
30-Jun-10
29-Oct-10
28-Feb-11
30-Jun-11
31-Oct-11
29-Feb-12
29-Jun-12
31-Oct-12
(MONTHLY)

28-Feb-13
NGX ASI INDEX
Market Break Out After 15 Years Of Consolidation

28-Jun-13
31-Oct-13
28-Feb-14
30-Jun-14
31-Oct-14
27-Feb-15
30-Jun-15
30-Oct-15
29-Feb-16
30-Jun-16
31-Oct-16
28-Feb-17
Market consolidation

30-Jun-17
31-Oct-17
28-Feb-18
29-Jun-18
31-Oct-18
28-Feb-19
28-Jun-19
31-Oct-19
28-Feb-20
30-Jun-20
30-Oct-20
26-Feb-21
30-Jun-21
29-Oct-21
Break Out

28-Feb-22
30-Jun-22
31-Oct-22
6

28-Feb-23
30-Jun-23
Differences Between Now and
2008

1. No margin trading: the fund in the market is real money.

2. Few foreign investors; the market is driven by domestic

institutional investors.

3. The naira value of stocks is trading at a discount in US

Dollar terms compared to 2008.

4. More informed/knowledgeable investors compared to 2008

5. Renewed interest in the equities market

7
Domestic and Foreign Portfolio Investment (Dec 2022 – May 2023)
In the month of May, a remarkable recovery was witnessed, with
Amidst the unstable macroeconomic environment, the appetite of
foreign investors increasing their stake in the Nigerian equities
domestic investors for the Nigerian stock market remained robust.
market.

Total Value of Transactions on the NGX Domestic and Foreign Participation in the
(₦ Billion) NGX
(Dec-2022 – May-2023)
322.92
Domestic Participation in the NGX (%) Foreign Participation in the NGX (%)

95.57%
93.71%
89.19% 89.61% 88.49%
87.24%

195.1 191.21
188.91

140.7 146.22

12.76%
10.81% 10.39% 11.51%
6.29%
4.43%

Dec-22 Jan-23 Feb-23 Mar-23 Apr-23 May-23 Dec-22 Jan-23 Feb-23 Mar-23 Apr-23 May-23
8
Sector Performance in H1-2023

Peak Sector Performance (H1-2023)

Performance between
Sectors January - January Key Drivers
June 2023 and June
2023 67.80%

• Impressive full-year corporate 58.90%

earnings
Oil and Gas 67.8% 81.4% 54.60%
• Implementation of the PIA; 51.90%
petrol subsidy removal

• Recapitalization and
Insurance 58.9% 78.7%
Restructuring

• Large system liquidity

Banking 54.6% 73.3%
• FX revaluation gains
• Inelastic demand for food
Consumer products
51.9% 54.9%
Goods • Increased pricing which can be
3.70%
passed to the consumers

Industrial Oil and Gas Insurance Banking Consumer Industrial

3.7% 4.2% • Higher energy prices
Goods Goods Goods

9
Toast of the Market
Between January and June 2023

Percentage Return As Of June 2023

ETERNA 214%

TRANSCORP 211%

NACHO 185%

ACCESS HOLDINGS 95%

FIDELITY BANK 61%

UNITED BANK FOR AFRICA 61%

FBN HOLDINGS 56%

FCMB GROUP 32%

10
The Opportunities in the Equities Market

1. The effective implementation of market- Expected

friendly reforms Entry Exit Dividend
Companies Returns P/E
Price (₦) Price (₦) Yield (%)
2. Cheaper stock valuations in US Dollar terms (%)

3. The likely return of foreign portfolio Access Holdings 15.00 18.35 22.3% 15.57% 3.36
investors

4. Anticipated increase in interim and final United Bank for Africa 12.50 15.60 24.8% 8.15% 2.61
dividend declaration
Guaranty Trust Holdings Co 32.00 36.85 15.2% 8.86% 5.38
5. New listings on the NGX

6. Corporate announcements Zenith Bank 30.40 35.30 16.1% 9.88% 4.39

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