F SH a sot A mutually exclusive events Ay At, Ag, : An are stained from all possible Boone & an oxp crimes , hen Fhe events ane cabled belly exclusive and oxhanrhive— Bayes’ Theorem. For, madly exclusive and exhaustive ) vend A A, Ay. An A | AD AUASUAg: + UAn= $ ie ai=s ge x PERAK i pie f p ig Nai p Grd ArlAs/\Asll->* Teeyes! thearam dat there be n amdinally axolurive. and exhanstive events Ay Aaytyy: An and to Wy auysume— that oe necunense OR one em oh anather ®t om IA a ned condition Aon. tHe Oc cwnce— & On og whieh iv Anoon tk have happened, a ; (Ai) = _ PayP UA (Bae) £( A) Eno? (Wai) bene eo JPrec + Yo Rowe, P (ANA) = POA) Pla) i) = £ (ti) P (A4i) ~ Plana) ch De F(A) Pll) = MONA) 2g \ Since tHe evens AL Ay 5 Ag» “ - An Ore PukuolLy exelaoive , A Can Occurs th the follecing Amuduadly exelurive fiat AIDA, AMR pena, << Ania jay. A = GAUL MADD (Aga) U ~~ - WlAn iA) “PR(a=P (+? (ALM A+P (Rata) +--+ Pl>nilA) = PUM) PM) rP Ode Mat - FEO)POA) = Feri) Rung ta valve 2 © we gh, 108) Beta) = Epona) (peared) tA mfBayes’ Theorem 1.Suppose that colored balls are distributed in three indistinguishable boxes as follows: Box-1 Box-2 Box-3 Red 2 4 3 white 3 1 3 blue 5 3 3 ‘A box selected at random from which a ball is taken at random and it is observed to be red, what is the probability that box -3 was selected? Ans: 0.3 2.Three bags B1,B2,B3 contain some balls of different color as shown below: Red Black white B1 3 2 1 B2 1 1 2 B3, 3 5 4 ‘A bag is selected at random and two balls are drawn from the selected bag. It turns out that ‘one ball is white and the other is red. Find the probability that the bag selected was B2. Ans: 55/118 3. There are three coins, identical in appearance, one of which is ideal and the two are biased with probabilities 1/3 and 2/3 respectively for a head. One coin is taken at random and tossed twice. Ifa head appears both the times, what is the probability that the ideal coin was selected? Ans: 9/29 4.A bag contains 7 red and 3 black marbles, and the other bag contains 4red and 5 black marbles. One marble is transferred from the first bag into the second bag and then a marble is taken out of the second bag at random. If the marble happened to be red, find the probability that the black marble was transferred. Ans: 12/47 5.A chances of A, B, and C becoming the general manager of a certain company are in the ratio 4:2:3. The probability that the bonus scheme will be introduced in the company if A, B and C become general manager are 0.3, 0.7 and 0.8 respectively. If the bonus scheme has been introduced, what is the probability that A has been appointed as general manager? Ans: 1.24Bayes Theorem 6. Three girls Rina, Rima and Riha share the household works. Since Rina is the oldest , does the job 40% of the time . Rima and Riha share the other 60% equally. The probability the at least one dish will be broken when Rina is working is 0.02; for Rima and Riha , the probabilities are 0.03 and 0.02 respectively. The parents do not know who is washing the dishes, but one ‘morning they hear one break. What is the probability that Rina was working? Riha was working? Ans: 8/23; 6/23 7.In the submission of annual income tax return, a taxpayer has applied for the allowance of certain expanses for which the legitimacy is subject to interpretation. Applications must be considered by one of the three review boards operating on a rotation schedule. The first board approves one 25% of such claims. The second and the third boards approve respectively 50% and 70% of such claims. There is 20% chance that the application will be considered by the first board, a 50% chance that it will be considered by the second board and a 30% chance that it will be considered by the third board. (a) What is the probability that the application will be approved? (b) If the application is approved, what is the probability that it was considered by (i) the first board? (ii)the second board (ii) the third board? Ans: (a) 0.51; (b) (i) 5/51, (ii) 25/51, (it) 21/51. 8.1na bolt factory, machines A, B, C manufacture respectively 25%, 30%and 40% of the total. Of their products, 5%, 4% and 2% are defective bolts respectively. A bolt is drawn at random and found to be defective. What is the probability that it was manufactured by the machine A? Ans: 0.3968 9-There are three sets of people B,, B, and 83. B, contains 3 men and 1woman; B, contains 2 men and 2 women; B contains 1 man and 3 women. A set is selected and a person is chosen. If the chosen person is woman, what is the probability that she has come from the set B;? Ans: 1/6. 10. The contents of three urns are: 1 white, 2 red, 3 green balls; 2 white, 1 red, 1 green balls and 4 white, 5 red, 3 green balls. Two balls are drawn from an urn chosen at random. These are found to be one white and one green. Find the probability that the balls so drawn come from the third urn. Ans: 15/59.x. P (B,) =f (B.) =P (Bs) = + wet en be tt geblng. bite ed a tell Plt.) = S84 15 ue Ply) = Be = PMs) = 1G. A 55) re ie , 2 (ts) Plafes - PBA.) = Cra) P(B,)P (A/B,) +P BIPAA,) +P) P(A) & ox beet heh tp 2 $ 4y 165 2 8 3° ages 438 8De xt th, 219 and 30 be the prebabulitics becoming, GH. Ne A, MnB and Ha. € rospeckiel, “pls P2004 Blo = | te S &el | 4 ~ Pl=t, Pl GPO 5 | lit Vy he he event ietreducing bors, | PB) = 02 Ploy) 07 and Pl/ebrs . 2 (%,) = On aD £ (AD PlB7a)+-PLB P (fa)+ POR) 1/4 X 6-3 am 4xXo-d 4X03 +2AOT +3K0°8 NR ONA 1440-24 oO }24 = 024 Pla) = ogV Ww Pv) = P(u)=Plud=4 Rae hot A be owed ging Soe ibe nd of : ne eb edn dt orp 4y 4 + $+ tT 5 + ae) 5 BEE = 165 2 sg gh 18. | 59