Retail Market Analysis and Positioning Study

Final Report
Town of Windsor
Retail Market Analysis and
Strategic Positioning Study
Prepared for:
Town of Windsor
Prepared by:
Economic & Planning Systems, Inc.
September 2010
EPS #19141
Table of Contents
1. INTRODUCTION AND SUMMARY OF FINDINGS .................................................................. 1
Background.............................................................................................................. 2
Summary of Findings ................................................................................................ 3
Recommended Strategies and Actions ......................................................................... 6
2. DEMOGRAPHIC AND EMPLOYMENT CONDITIONS AND TRENDS ............................................... 9
Population and Household Growth Trends .................................................................... 9
Age, Ethnicity, and Income ........................................................................................ 9
Job Profile .............................................................................................................. 14
Commute and Work Location Patterns ....................................................................... 14
ABAG Population and Employment Projections ............................................................ 18
Alternative Household Growth Projections .................................................................. 18
3. RETAIL MARKET AREA AND CONTEXT ......................................................................... 21
Regional Retail Context............................................................................................ 21
Local Retail Context ................................................................................................ 21
4. TRADE AREA BOUNDARIES ..................................................................................... 27
Definition of Windsor’s Trade Areas ........................................................................... 27
5. RETAIL MARKET ASSESSMENT ................................................................................. 31
Retail Sales by Location ........................................................................................... 31
Current Retail Demand ............................................................................................ 31
Total Retail Demand ................................................................................................ 41
Future Retail Demand Potential................................................................................. 41
6. RETAIL DEVELOPMENT STRATEGIES .......................................................................... 47
Southern Windsor ................................................................................................... 47
Downtown Windsor ................................................................................................. 51
Northern Windsor.................................................................................................... 54
Table of Contents
7. BELL VILLAGE ................................................................................................... 56
Bell Village Project Retail Mix.................................................................................... 56
Assessment of Impact of Bell Village ......................................................................... 60
8. VISITOR-SERVING RETAIL AND HOSPITALITY MARKET ASSESSMENT ..................................... 61
Branding and Place-Making ...................................................................................... 61
Downtown Retail..................................................................................................... 61
Meeting/Conference Facility...................................................................................... 63
Boutique Hotel........................................................................................................ 64
List of Tables
Table 1: Population, Households, Jobs, and Household Income Estimates and Forecasts....... 10
Table 2: Age Distribution in Town of Windsor and Sonoma County ..................................... 11
Table 3: Windsor and Sonoma County Population by Ethnicity........................................... 12
Table 4: Household Income Distribution ......................................................................... 13
Table 5: Town of Windsor and Sonoma County Distribution of Jobs .................................... 15
Table 6: Town of Windsor Major Employers..................................................................... 16
Table 7: Town of Windsor and Larkfield-Wikiup Commute Patterns, 2008 ........................... 17
Table 8: Town of Windsor Alternative 2035 Growth Projections ......................................... 20
Table 9: Competitive Shopping Centers .......................................................................... 23
Table 10: Primary and Secondary Trade Area Demographics Used in Analysis ....................... 30
Table 11: Town of Windsor Taxable Sales, 2003-2008 (2008$) ........................................... 32
Table 12: Town of Windsor Taxable Retail Sales, Detailed Account-Level Data, FY 2007/08 .... 34
Table 13: 2008 Household Retail Sales and Estimated Demand in Windsor ........................... 36
Table 14: Household Spending by Category Compared with State, 2008 .............................. 37
Table 15: 2008 Estimated Retail Demand for Select Categories in Windsor (in Square Feet) ... 40
Table 16: 2008 Household Retail Sales and Estimated Demand in Total Trade Area ............... 42
Table 17: Estimated Actual Sales and Retail Demand ......................................................... 43
Table 18: Estimated Townwide Retail Demand, 2035 ......................................................... 44
Table 19: Estimated Townwide Retail Demand, 2035 (in Square Feet) ................................. 46
Table 20: Competitive Supply of Big Box Retail ................................................................. 50
Table 21: Grocery Store Demand Analysis, 2035 ............................................................... 57

List of Tables
Table 22: Windsor Grocery Store Demand Analysis Based on EPS Household
Growth Projections .......................................................................................... 59
Table 23: Visitor-Generated Tax Receipts by County .......................................................... 62
Table 24: Town of Windsor Hotel Market Indicators, 2010 .................................................. 66

List of Figures
Figure 1: Windsor in Regional Context ............................................................................. 22
Figure 2: Windsor Shopping Areas .................................................................................. 25
Figure 3: Primary and Secondary Trade Areas .................................................................. 28
Figure 4: Town of Windsor Taxable Sales, 2003-2008 (2008$) ........................................... 33
Figure 5: Retail Sales and Estimated Demand .................................................................. 38
Figure 6: Windsor Downtown Area .................................................................................. 52

1. INTRODUCTION AND SUMMARY OF FINDINGS
Retail conditions in the Town of Windsor are presently mixed, with some positive indicators amid
other weak indicators—both of which signal opportunities to improve the Town’s retail
performance through targeted strategies. Consistent with the downturn in the national
economy, retail sales in the Town of Windsor have weakened in recent years. Yet even with the
overall decline in sales, there are categories of retail in the Town that are performing very well.
Actual retail sales in the Town of Windsor exceed household spending on retail goods and
services, suggesting that, at gross levels, Windsor is serving the retail needs of its residents and
attracting additional sales from outside the Town.1
The Town has been and continues to be very successful at meeting residents’ demand for local
goods and personal services with an adequate supply of grocery stores, banks, general
merchandise, building materials, and health and personal care stores in Town. Retail uses are
distributed among various areas of the Town, including Old Downtown, Shiloh Road, Old
Redwood Highway east of Highway 101, Old Redwood Highway north of downtown, and Shiloh
Road/Village interchange. Downtown Windsor has a successful array of smaller, primarily
independently-owned retailers that give diversity and character to its core. However, the retail
mix could be strengthened to better serve resident needs and visitors.
The Town is undersupplied in clothing and shoe stores; furniture and home furnishings stores;
auto-related stores; and electronics and appliance stores. In these categories, the Town is
leaking sales to other communities, primarily nearby Santa Rosa. The Town is also leaking sales
in the category of eating and drinking places, perhaps to Healdsburg and communities north of
Windsor. For some types of specialty goods, such as women’s apparel, Windsor residents may
travel beyond Santa Rosa to enjoy shopping experiences in Marin and even San Francisco.
However, there are significant opportunity sites available in the Town that are explored in detail
in this study. The retail industry is dynamic and requires near-constant reinvention to stay
ahead of competitive trends and consumer demand. If developed and strategically leased,
Windsor could be well positioned to recapture some of the sales it is presently leaking and attract
new sales. This retail market analysis and positioning strategy evaluates the potential role of
Windsor in the context of the subregional market, considers current and future retail potentials
at the Town’s retail opportunity sites that will best enhance the Town’s competitive position
within the larger market area and deliver a quality mix of goods and services to Town residents,
residents from surrounding communities, and visitors.
1 The Town of Windsor has an overall capture rate of 165 percent. The performance of specific
categories is discussed in subsequent chapters. Alternative evaluation metrics (sales per household
compared against the statewide average) are also incorporated to help explain results on a category
by category basis. See Tables 13 and 14 for calculations.
Economic & Planning Systems, Inc. 1 P:\19000s\19141windsor\Report\19141rpt_091710.doc

Town of Windsor
Retail Market Analysis and Strategic Positioning Study
Final Report 9/17/10
Economic Context
An over-arching issue currently facing growth and development in the Town of Windsor, as
elsewhere in the region, is the ongoing national recession. Market conditions are weak across
the range of potential uses, reflecting the economic downturn, instability in the credit and capital
markets, fall off in retail expenditures, and declining housing prices. These conditions are
expected to continue for the immediate future with a general consensus that it will be 2012 at
the earliest before there is a return to more stabilized market conditions, although the precise
timing may differ substantially by region.
Although the current economic environment is an important issue affecting development

feasibility, this analysis is provided in the context of a long-term Retail Positioning Strategy and
thus focuses on longer-term trends. Given Windsor’s general position as an attractive family-
oriented community in the Sonoma County wine country and the region’s resilient economy, it
can be expected that local market conditions will be stronger than those of other more central
portions of the State and will adjust successfully to future changes.
Background
As noted in the December 2008 Windsor Economic Development Strategic Plan (EDSP), the Town
of Windsor’s five primary commercial centers lack cohesiveness and retail identity. The EDSP
recommended that Town staff work to “develop a clear market position and strategy for
Windsor’s most concentrated commercial areas to ensure retail development is complementary,
well-planned and fills a needed gap.”2 The Town retained Economic & Planning Systems, Inc.
(EPS) to prepare a retail market analysis and develop a retail positioning strategy for the Town.
This report summarizes the analysis of and conclusions regarding retail development conditions
and opportunities in the Town of Windsor.
This document contains recommended strategies to help position the Town of Windsor within the
subregional marketplace, and formulates development and tenanting strategies for various retail
locations throughout the Town. The positioning strategy is intended to:
• Maximize retail sales capture to preserve and expand retail sales tax revenues that support
the provision of government services.
• Influence the type and quality of retailers to attract local and regional shoppers and improve
the overall retail mix in specific commercial districts.
• Craft retail and commercial strategies that will help drive successful redevelopment
Downtown and in other locations in the Town.
Additionally, EPS has used the data and findings of the market analysis to evaluate the potential
impacts of the retail component of the Bell Village Project on existing retail in Windsor, including
vacant retail-zoned land particularly in the Downtown area. This analysis also evaluates the level
of market support for the proposed retail.
2 Windsor Economic Development Strategic Plan, Section 5.3, page 53, December 2008.

Town of Windsor
Summary of Findings
1. Desirable quality of life factors have contributed to a rapid expansion of the Town’s
population during the past decade.
Since 2000, the Town’s population increased by about 4,900 people or 21 percent, while the
number of households in the Town grew by 1,700 households or 22 percent.
2. Households in the Town are younger, more diverse, and wealthier than households
in the County.
The Town of Windsor is largely comprised of families with children, with 82 percent of the
Town’s population under age 55. The Town of Windsor has higher incomes than the County
overall. Sonoma County’s median income was about $64,000, and Windsor’s was roughly
$78,000, estimated as an average for the three years between 2006 and 2008.
3. The ABAG projections for Windsor indicate the Town’s households are expected to
increase by 1,080 new units between 2010 and 2035, or 0.4 percent per year,
which would mark a dramatic slowdown from the previous decade.
During the 10-year period between 2000 and 2010, the number of households in the Town of
Windsor increased by 1,700, from 7,589 to 9,290, or 22 percent. During the next 25 years,
ABAG projects that the number of new households will increase by less than two-thirds the
amount realized in the past decade, or 1,080 new households, and EPS believes that this
projection significantly understates the amount of growth the market will support.
4. EPS recommends reconsidering the ABAG projections for this exercise and
assuming that new units will increase by 3,000 Townwide between 2010 and 2035.
If they understate actual growth potential, relying on ABAG’s projections for planning
purposes could compromise the Town’s process and objectives. EPS’s recommendation
translates to an increase of approximately 32 percent above the current number of
households in the Town, or 1.0 to 1.1 percent per year – roughly half the growth rate
experienced in the last decade. An increase of 3,000 new units falls well within the physical
capacity of the Town under current General Plan policies and is also in compliance with the
Town’s Growth Ordinance.
5. Consistent with national economic trends, retail sales in the Town of Windsor
peaked in 2006 before falling in 2007, 2008, and 2009.
Retail sales data provided by SBE shows retail sales from retail outlets (i.e., physical stores)
in the Town peaked at $254 million in 2006, dropping to 2003 levels of $213 million in 2008.
As a category, Eating and Drinking Places managed to post increases each year between
2003 and 2008.
6. A retail capture/leakage analysis comparing local household spending to actual

local sales indicates that the Town is capturing more outside spending than it is
losing to other jurisdictions.
The current households in Windsor spend nearly $230 million on retail goods and services.
The retail stores in Windsor generate $378 million in sales, although this number includes
business-to-business sales and spending by visitors. EPS adjusted the Town’s 2007/2008

Town of Windsor
retail sales account data to exclude business-to-business sales, resulting in total Townwide
sales of approximately $311 million – still more than is being spent by Windsor households
alone.
7. While retail in Windsor is generally strong, several retail categories—such as

apparel stores and eating and drinking places—are “leaking” sales to other
jurisdictions.
Windsor’s net capture of retail sales is a positive indicator, but capture in one retail category
can off-set leakage in another, obfuscating important variances. Windsor performs
exceptionally well in the General Merchandise, Building Material and Farm Implements, and
Food Stores categories. Retail categories that are leaking sales to other communities include
Apparel Stores; Home Furnishings and Appliances; Auto Dealers and Auto Supplies; and
Eating and Drinking Places. These leakage categories represent opportunities for new retail
development in Windsor.
Windsor’s Old Downtown is a particularly appropriate location for Apparel Stores and Eating
and Drinking Places, as these tend to be relatively small-scale businesses that benefit from
programmed spaces such as the Town Green, which attracts casual shoppers and diners
through its evening and weekend events. Because the development and buildout of
restaurants requires special considerations (e.g., restrooms, kitchens, adequate venting),
they should be anticipated early in the planning process. These specialized provisions are
expensive and difficult to accommodate once the building is already constructed.
8. Based on population and employment projections in 2035, Townwide retail demand

in 2035 is estimated to increase by 81 percent.
The estimate considers aggregate household retail expenditures, aggregate employee retail
spending, and aggregate business retail expenditures, but does not reflect future increases in
the capture of visitor spending. This increase reflects real growth in household income above
inflation. As a way of bracketing this projection, the same calculation is made using ABAG’s
household growth projections and assuming no real growth in household income and results
in an 18 percent increase in Townwide retail demand.
Assuming average retail sales of $390 per square foot, this increase in spending translates to
demand for approximately 551,000 square feet of retail space Townwide in the next 25
years. Though it has not been approved yet, the Bell Village project proposes to offer 65,500
square feet of retail space (or nearly 12 percent of future demand Townwide).
9. A new specialty grocery store—one that is focused on high quality, local and
organic produce and specializing in prepared foods—could be successful in the
Town of Windsor, particularly in the Downtown area.
The analysis of household spending and retail sales flows suggests insufficient demand for a
new conventional grocery store, meaning that a new conventional grocery store is likely to
take sales away from existing stores rather than serve latent or new demand. However, area
experts report that Windsor shoppers leave Windsor to purchase specialty grocery goods
from retailers not present in Windsor, such as Whole Foods, Trader Joe’s, and Costco.
Because of relatively high household incomes in the Town of Windsor and the preference for
specialty items that typically accompanies high incomes, it is possible that a small-format,

Town of Windsor
quality grocery store offering local, organic produce and specializing in prepared foods could
retain some of this lost local spending and capture additional wine-country visitor spending in
the near-term in the Town of Windsor—particularly in the Downtown area. In the longer
term, EPS prepared a grocery demand analysis and found that using EPS’s household growth
projections, an additional 27,000 square feet of grocery retail could be supported by 2035.
10. The amount of retail proposed at the Bell Village site represents nearly 12 percent
of the total retail square footage required to meet Townwide demand during the
next 25 years and could affect the pace of absorption of future retail.
Presently, about 16 percent of the Town’s retail supply is concentrated in the Downtown
Area. Given the availability of other more traditional locations for “name brand” retailers in
Windsor, EPS estimates that a maximum of 25 percent of the future Townwide demand for
retail space could be developed in the Downtown Area. This translates to 138,000 square
feet of new retail space in Downtown. Though the Bell Village project has not been approved
yet, it proposes to offer 65,500 square feet of retail space (nearly half of future demand for
retail space in the Downtown area and nearly 12 percent of future demand Townwide).
11. The mix of retail uses proposed for the Bell Village site is not likely to compete
directly with Downtown retailers, and, therefore, is unlikely to have a physical
impact on the Downtown retail environment in terms of increased vacancies.
There is a substantial supply of grocery stores and pharmacies (many in combined formats)
already in the Town of Windsor and specifically at the Lakewood and Lakewood Village
shopping centers. Though the development of the Bell Village retail component would be
likely to attract sales away from these existing grocery stores and pharmacies, they are not
present in the Downtown retail mix.3
12. Windsor also attracts visitors from beyond its Market Area who are drawn by the
Town’s events and visitor-serving retail, but there is potential for the Town to
capture an even greater share of the County’s visitor activity.
A representative from the Town’s Chamber of Commerce estimates that the Town’s events
pull visitors from up to 15 miles away. EPS believes there is potential for the Town to
capture an even greater share of the County’s visitor activity by developing and
strengthening opportunities to serve the visitor market, such as a hybrid boutique hotel/
conference center. If further analysis suggests demand for a new hotel, the Downtown Area
is a logical central location with good freeway access, adjacency to retail and restaurants,
and proximity to the Train Station.
3 The existing pharmacy Downtown, Health First!, is a pharmacy and compounding establishment
specializing in homeopathic treatments.

Town of Windsor
Recommended Strategies and Actions
1. Prepare a Master Plan for the Civic Center, Library, Huerta Gym, 100 Market sites.
There are a number of strategies described in this Study that could involve reconfiguring the
Town’s Civic Center property to optimize the use of the land surrounding the Town Green. A
master plan study should be prepared that evaluates the physical requirements and design of
the reconfigured area, as well as the financial considerations that would be involved,
including potential to use proceeds of development surplus, public property, tax increment
financing, and other sources to retire the outstanding public debt on the current Town Hall
site and fund consolidation of Town functions. Should current plans to develop the Bell
Village site become infeasible, the geographic scope of the Master Plan should be expanded
to include the Bell Village site.
2. Work to attract a niche-market, specialty grocery store that specializes in high-

quality foods, fresh produce, and prepared foods to Downtown Windsor.
Anticipating future growth, a small-format, quality grocery store offering local, organic
produce and specializing in prepared foods could potentially retain some of the local spending
that is being lost to areas outside of Town, and be viable over the long term—particularly in
the Downtown area. The presence and associated activity of a specialty grocery store in the
Downtown area can help jumpstart additional retail development. If such a grocery store can
be supported as part of Bell Village, special planning and design consideration should be
given to the careful integration of the retail portion of the Bell Village site with the rest of the
Downtown.
3. Ensure that the design of the Old Redwood Highway street and pedestrian
improvements serves to integrate the existing Downtown street pattern and the
future retail uses at Bell Village.
To maximize connectivity between the retail planned for the Bell Village site and the existing
Downtown area, pedestrian access across Old Redwood Highway must be improved.
Preliminary design alternatives for the downtown section of Old Redwood Highway are being
considered by the Planning Commission and Town Council. The more physically integrated
the Bell Village retail is with the Town Green and Downtown, the more likely it is that the
commercial uses can activate and support one another by encouraging pedestrian flow.
4. Monitor demand for a hotel/conferencing facility in the Town.

Discussions with the Executive Director of the Agatha Furth Center suggested that there is
unmet demand for an event facility in the Town of Windsor. However, the economics of
operating a stand-alone meeting/ conference facility are challenging and such facilities
typically require financial support. Financial support could take the form of public investment
or the operations of the facility could be subsidized by an adjacent and/or interconnected
hotel. The Town should engage in further analysis to evaluate the potential future demand
for a new hotel in light of the current application for a new Holiday Inn east of Highway 101.
If further analysis suggests demand for a new hotel, the Downtown Area is a logical central
location with good freeway access, adjacency to retail and restaurants, and proximity to the
Train Station, which will eventually serve SMART Train passengers. If the retail currently
planned for the Bell Village site becomes infeasible or the project does not move forward for

Town of Windsor
some reason, EPS believes a well-executed hotel/conferencing facility (along the lines and
scale of the Sonoma Mission Inn, for example) located on the Bell Village site would attract
new visitors to Windsor and the Downtown area, in particular. Hotel guests and conference
and event attendees will infuse vitality into the Downtown, and they will be less sensitive to
having to cross Old Redwood Highway than current residents and employees might be.
5. Recognize that there are opportunities for Old Downtown to serve two distinct
populations: day-to-day Downtown residents and employees, and visitors, and that
the Town should work to cater to each group.
Residents and employees require different types of retail than visitors, but the Downtown
area will need to serve both groups. Eating and drinking places and apparel stores represent
significant retail opportunities for the Town and are particularly appropriate uses for the
Downtown area.
6. Evaluate demand for a mini-outlet concept to capture apparel leakage.

A small scale outlet center may be possible in the Town if it is able to serve tourists as well
as the local community’s demand for apparel and other consumer goods. While there is a
large outlet in Petaluma with over 50 stores, Windsor may be able to offer a much smaller-
scale shopping experience, consistent with and complementary to the Downtown retail, to
attract visitors who may prefer unique small-town shopping experience on their way to other
destinations.
7. Windsor needs to explore branding options that resonate with the Town’s family
values and location in the heart of Sonoma’s wine country, that are not limited to
summer activities on the Town Green.
As noted above, one key aspect of successful tourist-oriented retail districts is its unique
identity or “brand”. Windsor is a “real” community nestled in the wine country that
celebrates local agriculture and produce, wine, and family.
8. To the extent possible, encourage the types of businesses that generate business-
to-business sales by supporting retention and expansion efforts.
The Town of Windsor’s retail sales are significantly supported by business-to-business sales,
including several that manufacture and sell materials related to the construction industry.
While these businesses do not attract resident or visitor spending, they generate sales tax
revenues that support the Town’s General Fund activities. Consider requiring a fiscal impact
analysis when applications to replace or redevelop existing sales tax generators are
submitted.
9. Preserve land designated as Gateway Commercial in the southern portion of Town

for regional-serving big box stores.
The southern portion of the Town where the Shiloh Center is located has already emerged as
the Town’s regional retail node with the presence of large-scale big box retailers Walmart,
Home Depot, and Office Depot. Residents of Windsor and residents of communities north of
Windsor are already driving through Windsor to get to these stores; they are also driving
past Windsor to shop at regional retail stores in Santa Rosa. To capture more of the regional
retail dollars being spent outside of Windsor, the Town could try to attract additional large

Town of Windsor
format, general merchandise retailers to the southern part of Town. Particular sites,
including the Oluf property (about 40 acres) and the Vicinni site, are promising candidates for
regional-serving retail, although there are three creeks that run through the Oluf property,
and the Vicinni site has wetlands issues. The former water-slide park site is vacant and
offers significant acreage but in an awkward configuration. Particular attention could be
focused on trying to attract a Target to one of these sites, for example, which could help
capture regional spending.4 Such a strategy is not expected to compete with the objectives
of the Shiloh Vision Plan, whose eventual retail offerings as part of a mixed-use development
are likely to emerge more organically in response to market demand and individual retailers’
own tendencies.
10. Unless there is a particular business able to invest in the northern portion of Town,
retail zoned land may be better suited to residential or mixed-use.
Beyond Bonaventure Plaza, there is a significant amount of land in northern Windsor on
either side of Highway 101 that is designated Gateway Commercial. As noted in the previous
finding, EPS believes the most appropriate location within the Town for regional retail is in
southern Windsor around the Shiloh interchange. Northern Windsor may be more
appropriate for residential or mixed use development. Apart from the types of retail stores
that serve nearby residents, northern Windsor does not display strong retail development
potential.
4 A Target that also offers a full line of conventional grocery goods would likely compete with the
conventional grocers (Safeway and Raleys) at the Lakewood Shopping Center.

2. DEMOGRAPHIC AND EMPLOYMENT CONDITIONS AND TRENDS
Retail demand can be disaggregated into spending from local sources such as residents and
employees and spending from outside sources such as commuters passing through Windsor
along Highway 101, tourists, and other visitors. Spending from local sources is largely
determined by demographic and economic variables such as population, income, and
employment. Spending from outside sources, in turn, is determined by such factors as regional
commute patterns, local destinations or tourist attractions, and the quality/character of retail
supply itself.
This chapter evaluates demographic conditions and trends within the Town of Windsor. The
growth and composition of the Town’s population, including age, income, education, and
occupational status, will play an important role in the evolution the Town’s retail position. As
such, this chapter provides baseline information for use in the more detailed retail assessment
provided in subsequent chapters.
Population and Household Growth Trends
Windsor is a small town in central Sonoma County with a population of 27,600 and 9,290
households as of 2010 (shown in Table 1). With the highest people per household ratio in the
County (2.9), it is a family-oriented community, with mostly single family detached homes and
quality public schools.
Since 2000, the Town’s population has expanded at a rapid pace, increasing by about 4,200
people or 18.5 percent, significantly outpacing the countywide increase of 7.6 percent. The
number of households in the Town grew by 1,600 or 21 percent between 2000 and 2010. This
significant growth can be attributed to the Town’s family-oriented image and desirable quality of
life factors, including pleasant year-round weather, quality public schools, and reasonable cost of
living relative to other Sonoma County communities.
Age, Ethnicity, and Income

The demographic composition of Windsor reflects its evolution as a small community catering to
middle-class families. The Town’s population is much younger and more ethnically diverse than
the rest of the County, with the share of Latino residents now representing one-third of the
Town’s overall population. These indices are summarized in Tables 2 through 4 and briefly
described below:
• Age: The Town of Windsor is largely comprised of families with children, with 82 percent of
the Town’s population under age 55 compared with 73 percent at the County level, as shown
in Table 2. The population under 21 years of age is 32 percent in the Town of Windsor
compared with 25 percent in the County as a whole. Just 17 percent of the Town’s
population is aged 55 and older, compared with 26 percent Countywide.

Table 1
Population, Households, Jobs, and Household Income Estimates and Forecasts
Town of Windsor Retail Analysis and Strategic Positioning Study; EPS #19141
2000-2010 2010-2035
Avg Avg
Area/Item 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 # % Annual # % Annual
Town of Windsor
Population 22,744 25,600 27,600 28,300 28,900 29,800 30,300 30,900 4,856 21.4% 2.0% 3,300 12.0% 0.5%
Households 7,589 8,680 9,290 9,470 9,670 9,930 10,160 10,370 1,701 22.4% 2.0% 1,080 11.6% 0.4%
Jobs 5,960 5,970 5,850 6,650 7,270 8,360 9,630 11,110 -110 -1.8% -0.2% 5,260 89.9% 2.6%
Mean Household Income [1] $88,300 $90,000 $95,000 $99,000 $102,700 $108,400 $115,300 $122,400 $6,700 7.6% 0.7% $27,400 28.8% 1.0%
Median Household Income [2,3] $74,326 $75,757 $79,965 $83,332 $86,447 $91,245 $97,053 $103,029 $5,640 7.6% 0.7% $23,064 28.8% 1.0%
Sonoma County
Population 458,614 479,200 497,900 509,900 522,500 535,200 548,400 561,500 39,286 8.6% 0.8% 63,600 12.8% 0.5%
Households 172,403 181,800 188,340 192,600 197,060 201,700 206,440 211,290 15,937 9.2% 0.9% 22,950 12.2% 0.5%
Jobs 221,490 220,460 218,360 236,710 257,740 278,510 301,120 325,110 -3,130 -1.4% -0.1% 106,750 48.9% 1.6%
Mean Household Income [1] $82,800 $82,600 $84,300 $89,000 $93,900 $99,100 $104,600 $110,300 $1,500 1.8% 0.2% $26,000 30.8% 1.1%
Median Household Income [2,4] $62,368 $58,330 $61,514 $64,944 $68,519 $72,314 $76,327 $80,487 -$854 -1.4% -0.1% $18,972 30.8% 1.1%
10
[1] In 2005$
[2] Reported by 2000 U.S. Census in 1999 dollars. Inflated to 2005 dollars based on consumer price index for
the San Francisco-Oakland-San Jose metropolitan area as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Source: U.S. Census.
[3] Assumes the ratio of median income to mean income will remain constant at 84% (average ratio in 2000).
[4] Assumes the ratio of median income to mean income will remain constant at 73% (average ratio from 2000-2005).
Sources: Association of Bay Area Governments (ABAG); U.S. Census; Bureau of Labor Statistics; Economic & Planning Systems, Inc.
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Table 2
Age Distribution in Town of Windsor and Sonoma County
Town of Windsor 1 Sonoma County1

Item # % # %
Under 21 years 8,211 32% 117,928 25%

21 to 34 years 4,634 18% 89,251 19%
35 to 54 years 8,353 32% 136,153 29%
55 to 64 years 2,174 8% 59,882 13%
65 to 84 years 2,146 8% 49,858 11%
85 years and over 209 1% 10,254 2%
Total 25,727 100% 463,326 100%
[1] Source: 2006-2008 American Community Survey 3-Year Estimates

Estimates are based on data collected between January 2006 and December 2008
and represent the average over the 3-year period of time.
Sources: U.S. Census; American Community Survey; Economic & Planning Systems, Inc.
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Table 3
Windsor and Sonoma County Population by Ethnicity
2000 2010
# % of Total # % of Total
Town of Windsor 1
White 15,989 70% 16,123 63%
Hispanic or Latino 5,364 24% 7,706 30%
Other2 1,391 6% 1,898 7%
Total 22,744 100% 25,727 100%
Sonoma County1
White 341,686 75% 318,742 69%
Hispanic or Latino 79,511 17% 104,459 23%
Other2 37,417 8% 40,125 9%
Total 458,614 100% 463,326 100%
[1] Source: 2006-2008 American Community Survey 3-Year Estimates.

Estimates are based on data collected between January 2006 and December 2008
and represent the average over the 3-year period of time.
[2] Includes Black or African American, American Indian and Alaska Native, Asian,
Native Hawaiian and Other Pacific Islander, and individuals reporting two or more races.
Sources: U.S. Census; American Community Survey; Economic & Planning Systems, Inc.

Table 4
Household Income Distribution
Number of
Households/ % of Total
Item Amount Households
Town of Windsor 1
Less than $15,000 733 9%
$15,000 to $34,999 1,050 12%
$35,000 to $49,999 1,060 12%
$50,000 to $74,999 1,254 15%
$75,000 to $99,999 1,285 15%
$100,000 to $149,999 2,041 24%
$150,000 or more 1,100 13%
Total 8,523 100%
Median Household Income (2008$) $78,053 --
Sonoma County1
Less than $15,000 15,507 9%
$15,000 to $34,999 31,775 18%
$35,000 to $49,999 22,216 12%
$50,000 to $74,999 33,502 19%
$75,000 to $99,999 25,670 14%
$100,000 to $149,999 28,880 16%
$150,000 or more 21,460 12%
Total 179,010 100%
Median Household Income (2008$) $63,768 --
[1] 2006-2008 American Community Survey 3-Year Estimates. Estimates are

based on data collected between January 2006 and December 2008 and
represent the average characteristics over the 3-year period of time.
Sources: 2006-2008 American Community Survey;


Town of Windsor
• Ethnicity: About 63 percent of Windsor’s population is white compared to 69 percent in the

County (see Table 3). The ethnic composition of both the Town’s and County’s populations
has become more diverse since 2000 with increases in the number of Latino and other non-
white residents.
• Income: The households in the Town have a much higher average annual income of
$95,000, compared to the County’s average of $84,000. Median incomes are lower by about
16 percent. Approximately 37 percent of all Windsor households earned more than $100,000
in 2006 through 2008, according to the American Community Survey5—a much higher
proportion than in Sonoma County overall (28 percent), as shown in Table 4.
Job Profile
Despite growth of certain employment sectors and declines of others, the County has
experienced relatively little change in its overall economic profile since 2000. A sizable share (35
percent) of the County’s jobs are in the Health, Educational and Recreational Service Jobs sector,
but beyond that concentration, employment appears well distributed across a range of industries.
Since 2000, the largest employment sectors have been Manufacturing, Wholesale and
Transportation Jobs and Financial and Professional Service Jobs, as shown on Table 5. This
degree of diversity is likely to make the County more resilient during downturns than economies
that are more reliant upon a particular industry.
On a much smaller scale, Windsor’s economic composition mirrors that of the County. Also
shown on Table 5, top employment sectors in the Town include Health, Educational and
Recreational Service Jobs (31 percent), Financial and Professional Service Jobs (19 percent), and
Manufacturing, Wholesale and Transportation Jobs (17 percent). Windsor has a higher
percentage of jobs in the Retail Jobs category than the County, reflecting the Town’s position as
a net attractor of retail spending.
The Town’s top employers include a significant number of businesses in the retail industry
(shown on Table 6). Large private employers in Windsor include many of the Town’s top sales
tax generators, including Walmart, Standard Structures, Sonoma Tilemakers, Home Depot,
Safeway, Micro-vu Corp, and Raley’s. It is estimated that these large employers account for
about 20 percent of total jobs in the Town.
Commute and Work Location Patterns
Windsor is located along the Highway 101 commute shed, and commute and workplace trends
provide information on a community’s role in a regional economy as well as the job and lifestyle
choices and options of local residents. As shown on Table 7, data on the work location and
commute patterns of employed Windsor residents reflects the Town’s role as an attractive
5 2006-2008 American Community Survey 3-Year Estimates are based on data collected between
January 2006 and December 2008 and represent the average characteristics over the three-year
period.

Table 5
Town of Windsor and Sonoma County Distribution of Jobs
2000 2010 2020 2035 2010-2035

# % of # % of # % of # % of # %
Industry Total Total Total Total Change
Town of Windsor
Agriculture and Natural Resources Jobs 0 0% 190 3% 160 2% 230 2% 40 --
Manufacturing, Wholesale and Transportation Jobs 1,130 19% 1,020 17% 1,090 19% 1,430 13% 410 36%
Retail Jobs 910 15% 830 14% 1,000 17% 1,610 14% 780 86%
Financial and Professional Service Jobs 1,000 17% 1,090 19% 1,450 25% 2,110 19% 1,020 102%
Health, Educational and Recreational Service Jobs 1,930 32% 1,820 31% 2,450 42% 3,840 35% 2,020 105%
Other Jobs [1] 990 17% 900 15% 1,120 19% 1,890 17% 990 100%
Total, All Industries 5,960 100% 5,850 100% 7,270 124% 11,110 100% 5,260 88%
Sonoma County
Agriculture and Natural Resources Jobs 6,510 3% 6,200 3% 6,200 2% 6,200 2% 0 0%
Manufacturing, Wholesale and Transportation Jobs 45,570 21% 41,860 19% 46,640 18% 54,790 17% 12,930 28%
Retail Jobs 26,890 12% 25,200 12% 29,430 11% 38,830 12% 13,630 51%
Financial and Professional Service Jobs 38,980 18% 39,310 18% 47,650 18% 61,760 19% 22,450 58%
15
Health, Educational and Recreational Service Jobs 72,510 33% 76,780 35% 91,970 36% 117,620 36% 40,840 56%
Other Jobs 31,030 14% 29,010 13% 35,850 14% 45,910 14% 16,900 54%
Total, All Industries 221,490 100% 218,360 100% 257,740 100% 325,110 100% 106,750 48%
[1] Includes Construction, Information, and Government
Sources: ABAG 2009 Projections; Economic & Planning Systems, Inc.

Table 6
Town of Windsor Major Employers
Industry # of Employees
Town of Windsor
Wal-Mart 300
Standard Structures 265
Sonoma Tilemakers 170
Home Depot 131
Safeway Supermarket 118
Micro-Vu Corporation 100
Raley's Supermarket 90
Total, All Industries 1,174
[1] Includes full and part-time staff in 2010.
Sources: Town of Windsor Community Economic Profile;


Table 7
Town of Windsor and Larkfield-Wikiup Commute Patterns, 2008
Item Amount % Item Amount %
Windsor Residents Larkfield-Wikiup Residents

Place of Work Place of Work
Santa Rosa 3,298 28% Santa Rosa 1,120 32%
Windsor 1,364 12% Windsor 171 5%
Healdsburg 742 6% Petaluma 139 4%
Petaluma 338 3% San Francisco 124 4%
San Francisco 315 3% Rohnert Park 95 3%
Rohnert Park 301 3% Larkfield-Wikiup (CDP) 90 3%
San Rafael 173 2% Healdsburg 73 2%
Larkfield-Wikiup (CDP) 154 1% San Rafael 62 2%
Novato 125 1% Sebastopol 42 1%
San Jose 111 1% Novato 37 1%
Other in County 2,265 20% Other 1,516 44%
Other Outside of County 2,419 21% Total 3,469 100%
Total 11,605 100%
Windsor Workers Larkfield-Wikiup Workers

Place of Residence Place of Residence
Santa Rosa 1,482 23% Santa Rosa 445 30%
Windsor 1,364 21% Windsor 154 11%
Healdsburg 266 4% Larkfield-Wikiup (CDP) 90 6%
Rohnert Park 230 4% Rohnert Park 65 4%
Larkfield-Wikiup (CDP) 171 3% Petaluma 57 4%
Petaluma 142 2% Healdsburg 37 3%
Cloverdale 100 2% Napa 22 2%
San Francisco 88 1% Roseland 20 1%
Sebastopol 72 1% Cloverdale 13 1%
Napa 71 1% Sebastopol 12 1%
Other in County 1,174 18% All Other Locations 548 37%
Other Outside of County 1,409 21% Total 1,463 100%
Total 6,569 100%
Sources: U.S. Census, 2008 LED; Economic & Planning Systems, Inc.

Town of Windsor
“family community” for professionals who work in larger employment centers, mostly to the
south. Of Windsor workers, the majority of employees live within 10 miles of the Town;
however, 21 percent commute to Windsor from outside Sonoma County.
ABAG Population and Employment Projections
As part of this analysis, EPS has reviewed population and employment growth projections
developed by ABAG in 2009. ABAG provides projections for the jurisdictions in the nine Bay Area
counties through 2035. As the designated Metropolitan Planning Organization (MPO) for this
region, the ABAG projections are developed with input from local and regional agencies and
jurisdictions and are used as critical input to major regional planning efforts such as the
Regional Transportation Improvement Program (RTIP), the Air Quality Management Plan
(AQMP), and the Regional Housing Needs Assessment (RHNA). These projections
incorporate “policy-based” considerations such as focusing growth toward existing and
planned regional centers and transit areas as a well as a gradual increase in mixed-use, high-
density development and a reversal of job-housing imbalances.
The ABAG projections for Sonoma County and Windsor are provided in Table 1. As shown, the
Town’s population is projected by ABAG to increase by 3,300 between 2010 and 2035, or 0.5
percent per year. The Town is projected to gain 1,080 households over the next 25 years (by
2035), which represents an average annual growth rate of 0.4 percent. If these projections
are accurate, they would represent a significant slow-down from population and household
growth rates in recent years (the Town has grown at an average annual rate of 2.0 percent since
2000). Population growth in the Town has been faster than the Countywide average over the
past decade, but is projected by ABAG to slow to a rate consistent with the County’s projected
average annual growth rate of 0.5 percent between 2010 and 2035.
On the employment side, ABAG’s projections suggest that Windsor will experience relatively
strong job growth over the next 25 years, after a decade of job losses. Between 2000 and 2010,
the Town of Windsor lost 1.8 percent of its employment base, while the County lost 1.4 percent
during the same period. Looking ahead, the Town is projected to add 5,260 jobs by 2035, which
represents an overall increase of about 90 percent (from 2010 levels) or an average annual
growth rate of 2.6 percent (also shown in Table 1). The Town’s job growth is expected to
outpace the County as a whole (a 90 percent increase over 25 years compared with 49 percent
Countywide).
EPS believes that ABAG’s job growth projections for Windsor are reasonable, as they still suggest
that Windsor will be a primarily residential community in the future, with fewer jobs in the Town
than employed residents living in the Town. However, EPS believes that ABAG’s household
growth projections are most likely too conservative, as discussed below.
Alternative Household Growth Projections
During the 10 year period between 2000 and 2010, the number of households in the Town of
Windsor increased by 1,700, from 7,589 to 9,290, or 22 percent. During the next 25 years,
ABAG projects that the number of new households will increase by just two-thirds the amount
realized in the past 10 years, or 1,080 new households. EPS recognizes that ABAG’s projections

Town of Windsor
are intentionally prescriptive and reflect a policy to direct new growth to established urban cores;
however, EPS believes that they significantly understate the amount of growth the market will
support. In fact, as will be discussed in more detail in a subsequent chapter, the nearly 1,000
residential units currently in the pipeline for the Downtown area only would approach ABAG’s 25-
year projection for the entire Town.
If the 2.0 percent average annual growth rate realized during the past decade was applied during
the next 25 years, the Town of Windsor would grow by more than 6,100 new households, as
shown on Table 8. The Town’s General Plan states that total capacity for residential units within
Town limits is estimated at 3,298 to 4,087 new units, depending on the density assumptions
applied. 6 If the density bonus were applied to all projects, a total of 5,109 units could be
accommodated. There is additional capacity within the Town’s sphere of influence.7 Other
constraining factors to consider include the Town’s Growth Control ordinance, which allows for
150 new units per year, or 3,750 new units over a 25-year period, not accounting for allowable
exemptions such as affordable units or those in the Downtown area.
To rely on ABAG’s projections for planning purposes if they understate actual growth potential,
could compromise the Town’s process and objectives. EPS recommends reconsidering the ABAG
projections for this analysis and assuming that new units will increase by 3,000 Townwide
between 2010 and 2035. This amount of household growth translates to an increase of
approximately 30 percent above the current number of households in the Town, or 1.0 to 1.1
percent per year – still only about half the growth rate experienced in the last decade. An
increase of 2,500 to 3,000 new units falls well within the physical capacity of the Town as
reflected in its General Plan and is also in compliance with the Town’s Growth Ordinance.
6 The 3,298-unit estimate reflects a mid-point density assumption, while the 4,087-unit estimate
reflects maximum density.
7There is additional capacity for 2,172 to 2,922 new units within the sphere of influence, or 3,653
applying the maximum density bonus.

Table 8
Town of Windsor Alternative 2035 Growth Projections
2000-2010 2010-2035
Avg Avg
Item 2000 2010 2035 # % Annual # % Annual
Low Growth Estimate [1]

Households 7,589 9,290 10,370 1,701 22.4% 2.0% 1,080 11.6% 0.4%
High Growth Estimate [2]

Households 7,589 9,290 15,403 1,701 22.4% 2.0% 6,113 65.8% 2.0%
EPS Estimate [3]

Households 7,589 9,290 12,290 1,701 22.4% 2.0% 3,000 32.3% 1.1%
20
[1] ABAG, Projections 2009.

[2] Applies the 2000 to 2010 annual growth rate of 2.0% to the number of households in 2010 for 20 years.
[3] Increase of 3,000 new households, estimated by EPS, is used in subsequent tables and analysis.
Source: ABAG; Economic & Planning Systems, Inc.

3. RETAIL MARKET AREA AND CONTEXT
The Town of Windsor is centrally located in Sonoma County at the confluence of the Russian
River, Dry Creek, and Alexander valleys. It is situated along the Highway 101 corridor, 10 miles
north of Santa Rosa, the most populous city in the County, and 6 miles south of Healdsburg, as
shown on Figure 1. The following section describes the local retail market context, as well as
the regional market context, and informs the conceptualization of the Trade Area in the
subsequent chapter.
Regional Retail Context
Santa Rosa, located 10 miles south of Windsor, is the main retail hub of Sonoma County. Santa
Rosa draws shoppers from all of Sonoma County, particularly for purchases such as apparel,
home goods and furnishings, and home electronics. Further south are the Petaluma Outlets,
offering discount prices at 60 name-brand apparel and home goods stores. The competitive
supply of area shopping centers is tracked on Table 9.
Outside of the Town’s boundaries to the southeast, there is a modest supply of neighborhood-
serving retail and family-style eateries in the Larkfield-Wikiup community. The 89,000 square-
foot Larkfield Shopping Center is anchored by Molsberry’s Market, a 17,000 square-foot grocery
store.
Local Retail Context

The Town’s retail stores are generally dispersed across five centers of retail activity within the
Town’s 6.5 square miles, as shown on Figure 2. Moving north to south:
• Bonaventure Plaza is a grocery/convenience store-anchored center located along Old

Redwood Highway at the northern point of the Town and offers neighborhood-serving retail
including Martin’s Market, a Latino-oriented grocery market, a coffee shop, a pizza
restaurant, a laundromat, a pet supply store, and a pet photography studio. Though it is not
officially part of Bonaventure Plaza, there is a taqueria north of the center. Further north and
across Old Redwood Highway, Garrett Ace Hardware and Vineyard Industry sell building
materials and landscape supplies.
• Lakewood Village is located east of Highway 101 in the central portion of the Town and
consists of both Lakewood Shopping Center and Lakewood Village Shopping Center—two
centers located across Lakewood Drive from one another. Together they serve as a
community-serving retail center, anchored by Raley’s, Safeway, and CVS Pharmacy. In-line
stores include casual family-oriented restaurants, personal services such as nail, hair, and
tanning salons, dental offices, a health club, and other services including the Town’s post
office, a packaging and shipping store, and banks and insurance offices. Currently, there are
several retail vacancies at Lakewood Village.

Figure 1:
Windsor in Regional Context
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Economic & Planning Systems, Inc. 22 P:\19000s\19141windsor\Maps\MapInfo\Figure_4.wor
Table 9
Competitive Shopping Centers
Gross
Leasable Area
Name Location (GLA) Anchor Other Tenants Year Built
Windsor
Lakewood Shopping Center 8852 Lakewood Dr 107,800 Raley's Supermarket Starbucks, Subway, U.S. Post 1988
Office, Wells Fargo, Radio
Shack
Lakewood Village 8900-9098 Brooks Rd S 127,200 Safeway Peet's Coffee, Carl's Jr., Taco 1992
Supermarket, Bell, Bank of America,
CVS Pharmacy Sonoma Bank, The UPS
Store
Shiloh Center Hwy 101 & Shiloh Rd 345,000 Wal-Mart, Home Office Depot, Cold Stone 1999
Depot Creamery, KFC/A&W, Burger
King, Kragen Auto Parts,
Quizno's, Sleep City
Old Downtown Windsor Road 112,530 Independent, Starbucks, Baskin Robbins, 2002
boutique retailers and salons and spas, bike shop,
eateries book store, antiques, bead
store, wine shop,
consignment clothing
Bonaventure Plaza Old Redwood Highway and 12,000 Martin's Market pizza, coffee, pet boutique,
Starr Road Estrella's Market and
Taqueria
Windsor Subtotal -- 704,530 -- -- --
Larkfield
Larkfield Shopping Center 4754 Old Redwood Highway 89,000 Exchange Bank, restaurants 1960
Molsberry Market
Larkfield Subtotal -- 89,000 -- -- --
Petaluma
Gateway Center 939 Lakeville Highway 83,100 Lucky's Blockbuster Video, 1989
McDonald's, Nail Salon, The
UPS Store
Golden Eagle Center 40 E Washington St. 71,100 Grocery Outlet Baskin Robbins, Exchange 1975
Bank, restaurants
Petaluma Plaza North 261 N McDowell Blvd. 185,309 Kmart, CVS/Longs Burger King, Starbucks, 1980
Shopping Center Cigarettes R Cheaper, Ideal
Stationers, General Nutrition
Center, Massage Envy, Bank
of the West, MetroPCS
Petaluma Plaza South E. Washington St and 150,000 Raley's, Trader Joe's, Sally Beauty Supply, Radio 1980
Shopping Center McDowell Blvd Ross Shack, restaurants
Petaluma Village Premium 2200 Petaluma Blvd. N. 196,000 -- Carter's Childrenswear, Gap 1994
Outlets Outlet, Brooks Brothers, Off
5th, restaurants
Washington Square 389 S. McDowell Blvd 219,393 Safeway AT&T Wireless, Cold Stone 1971
Creamery, Exchange Bank,
H&R Block, Staples, nail
salon, See's Candies
Petaluma Subtotal 904,902

Table 9
Competitive Shopping Centers
Gross
Leasable Area
Name Location (GLA) Anchor Other Tenants Year Built
Santa Rosa [1]

Bennett Valley Shopping 2785 Yulupa Ave. 74,276 Safeway Exchange Bank, offices, 1968
Center restaurants
Coddington Regional Mall 733 Coddington Center 964,000 Macy's, JCPenney, Bank of The West, Baskin 1962
Gottschalk's, Whole Robbins, Bath & Body Works,
Foods Foot Locker, Hallmark, salon,
restaurants, Old Namy, See's
Candies
Farmer's Lane Plaza 1551 Farmer's Lane 94,211 Rite Aid Pharmacy Starbucks, Kragen Auto 1981
Parts, Family Optometry
Center, restaurants
Flamingo One Stop Highway 12 at Farmer's Lane 200,000 Safeway Credit Union, Stanley
Shopping Center and 4th Steemer, Starbucks, Wells
Fargo, catering
Montecito Center 6240 Montecito Blvd 111,000 Oliver's Market Rincon Valley Cleaners, 1961
Round Table Pizza, Montecito
Car Wash, Montecito Barbers
Montgomery Village 800 Farmer's Lane 286,366 Lucky's, Ross Bank of America, Brookstone, 1950
Shopping Center Chase Bank, Coldwater
Creek, Curves, Fireside
Stationary, Radio Shack,
restaurants, Sur La Table
Raley's Fulton Marketplace 1407 Fulton Road 120,000 Raley's, Ace Starbucks, Subway, 1992
Hardware Blockbuster Video, offices
Safeway Marlow Center 1799 Marlow Road 85,000 Safeway Round Table Pizza, Wells 1985
Fargo Bank, Starbucks, H&R
Block
Santa Rosa Marketplace 1900-2280 Santa Rosa Ave. 535,852 Best Buy, Costco, Old Navy, Radio Shack, 1996
Marshalls, Office AT&T Wireless, Beverages &
Depot, Sportmart, More, restaurants
Target
Santa Rosa Plaza 800 Santa Rosa Plaza 705,876 Macy's, Sears Abercrombie & Fitch, Apple 1982
Computer, Banana Republic,
Gap, The Disney Store, Eye
Exam 2000, Lane Bryant,
PacSun, Sunglass Hut,
restaurants
Santa Rosa Southside 2705 Santa Rosa Ave. 121,568 Cost Plus World Party City, Play It Again 1982
Market, Toys R Us, Sports, Legendary Beads,
REI Sprint PCS, Oreck, The
Vitamin Shoppe, Burger King
Santa Rosa Town Center 2765 Santa Rosa Ave. 171,550 Bed Bath & Beyond, Petco, Sleep Train 1999
Borders Books &
Music, Michael's
St. Francis Shopping 100 Calistoga Road 86,158 Safeway The UPS Store, restaurants, 1967
Center Rincon Video, Exchange
Bank
Stony Point Plaza 711 Stony Point Road 203,970 FoodMax Burger King, Taco Bell, 1985
Hollywood Video, Payless
Shoes
Santa Rosa Subtotal -- 3,759,827 -- -- --
Shopping Center Total -- 5,458,259 -- -- --
[1] Includes shopping centers with at least 70,000 square feet of GLA.
Source: 2006 Shopping Center Directory; Individual Shopping Centers' websites; Economic & Planning Systems, Inc.

Figure 2:
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Town of Windsor
• Old Downtown is centrally located west of Highway 101, and the bulk of the retail
Downtown is nestled to the west and south of the Town Green, which acts as Downtown’s
anchor use as it has numerous events and programs throughout the year. Though referred
to as “Old,” the Downtown’s built environment is almost entirely new construction. The New
Urbanist Downtown has been built in phases, beginning in the early 2000s.
The retail in the Downtown can be characterized as pedestrian-friendly, with mostly unique,
independently-owned specialty stores and restaurants. Many of the retailers are mom and
pop “hobby” retailers, meaning that they are not strictly in business for the money. Rather,
they are pursuing a hobby interest and can subsidize their operations with their personal
savings, or accept relatively low income from the stores, if necessary. The small size of the
retail spaces also keeps total monthly rent for individual stores fairly low, even though rents
are fairly high on a per square foot basis. There are a number of quality restaurants as well
as casual ice cream, frozen yogurt, and candy stores. Other retailers include salons, jewelry
stores, craft stores, and consignment clothing stores. Old Downtown benefits from the
Town’s active programming of the Town Green, particularly during the summer months.
Of the retail spaces close to the Town Green and oriented to the Town Green, there are very
few vacancies, according to the developer of the Downtown. The retail spaces that are
accessible from the parking lot off of Windsor Road have more vacancies, while the ground
floor retail along Johnson Street (the last to be developed) is almost completely vacant.
• Windsor Palms is located along Old Redwood Highway, southeast of Lakewood Center. It is
a neighborhood-serving strip mall, anchored by Round Table Pizza and Castañedas
Marketplace, which specializes in Mexican groceries. The tenant directory includes a video
rental store, a salon, a drycleaner, Star Town Restaurant, Thumbs Up Burgers, a taqueria,
Donut Hut, a needlepoint shop, and a Tae Kwon Do studio. Windsor Palms has a strong
medical office presence, including a medical clinic and second story medical offices.
Currently, some retail space is available for lease.
• Shiloh Center is located east of Highway 101 at the southern point of Town, and offers the
Town’s only regional-serving, national-credit retailers. The Center is anchored by Home
Depot, Walmart, and Office Depot. Family-style, fast-food eateries such as Subway
Sandwiches, Panda Express, Burger King, Pizza Guys, Hi-Tech Burrito, Kentucky Fried
Chicken, Cold Stone Creamery, and Quiznos comprise much of the tenant base. There is also
a pet store, a cell phone store, a credit union, a mattress store, and a Kragen Auto Parts
store.
• Other sites of limited retail sales activity include Windsor Village, the Shiloh Business Center,
and the retail along Airport Boulevard, just south of the City.

4. TRADE AREA BOUNDARIES
This chapter describes Windsor’s Primary and Secondary Trade Areas and evaluates the
socioeconomic conditions and trends within the Total Trade Area.
Definition of Windsor’s Trade Areas
A retail Trade Area is defined as a geographic region that contains the elements of demand and
supply that will determine the performance of a particular tenant or project. A Trade Area is
influenced by a variety of factors, including competitive supply as discussed in the preceding
chapter, the location and density of the targeted residential and workforce populations, the
character and distribution of retail centers, the relative distance or travel time for each of the
above, geographic and psychological barriers, and existing commute or shopping patterns. The
primary retail Trade Area for the Town of Windsor is assumed to correlate with the Town’s
boundaries, as shown on Figure 3.
Windsor is primarily surrounded by sparsely populated areas of unincorporated Sonoma County.

Primary inter-jurisdictional access is provided by Highway 101, and to a lesser extent Old
Redwood Highway. Though the Town is not a major employment center, it is located along a
major employment commute shed. The secondary retail Trade Area for the Town of Windsor is
largely influenced by its accessibility with respect to the major population and employment
center of Santa Rosa (10 miles to the south), and to a lesser degree Healdsburg (6 miles to the
north), Rohnert Park (17 miles to the south), Petaluma (26 miles to the south), and San
Francisco (60 miles to the south).
Healdsburg and communities north of Healdsburg are not included as part of the Town’s
secondary retail Trade Area, as the supply of retail in these communities more or less meets the
basic retail goods and services needs of their residents.8 Access between Windsor and
communities to the east, such as St. Helena, and Napa in Napa County is slow-going,
constrained by hills and winding, narrow roads. The most direct access to Highways 12 and 29
requires travelling south into Santa Rosa. Communities to the west such as Guerneville, Monte
Rio, and Forestville are accessible via Highway 116, and Sebastopol is off Highway 12—neither of
which passes through (or by) Windsor. As such, the communities to the east and west of
Windsor are not a part of Windsor’s secondary retail Trade Area. The City of Santa Rosa to the
south is the primary destination for regional retail goods and already captures spending well-
beyond household expenditures in the City. Santa Rosa’s size, highway network, and retail
offerings exclude it from Windsor’s secondary retail Trade Area.
Given the geographic and transportation constraints and competitive supply issues described
above, for the purposes of this analysis, the secondary retail Trade Area expands the market
area to include the Larkfield-Wikiup community, also shown on Figure 3. Windsor’s secondary
8 EPS has not evaluated retail capture/leakage analyses for these communities.

Figure 3:
Primary and Secondary Trade Areas
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Hembree
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Hembree
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Windsor
Windsor
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Windsor
Windsor River
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Primary Trade Area
Secondary Trade Area

Town of Windsor
retail Trade Area is assumed to correlate with the Town’s boundaries on the north and west and
east but it extends beyond the Town’s limits to the southeast to include the census-designated
place of Larkfield-Wikiup.
Of course Windsor also attracts visitors from beyond its secondary retail Trade Area who are
drawn by the Town’s events and visitor-serving retail. A representative from the Town’s
Chamber of Commerce estimates that the Town’s events pull visitors from up to 15 miles away.
As will be discussed in detail later in this report, EPS believes there is potential for the Town to
capture an even greater share of the County’s visitor activity through strategic positioning of the
Town’s retail opportunities.
Population and Employment of Secondary Trade Area
ABAG does not release demographic projections for the Secondary Trade Area that has been
identified in this analysis. However, Larkfield-Wikiup is a census-designated place, and current
demographic information is available as shown on Table 10. As of 2009, the Larkfield-Wikiup
community had a population of 7,600 residents and supported about 2,400 jobs. The
community appears relatively stable based on its modest growth between 2000 and 2009. The
average household income in Larkfield-Wikiup was $87,000 in 2009, 8.0 percent less than
Windsor’s average household income of $94,000 in 2009. This differential lowers the average
household income of the Total Trade Area to $93,000.

Table 10
Primary and Secondary Trade Area Demographics Used in Analysis
Item Source 2000 2008 2009 2010
Primary Trade Area (Windsor)

Population CA Department of Finance 22,744 26,471 26,714 26,955
Households CA Department of Finance 7,728 9,265 9,315 9,329
Jobs ABAG and EPS 5,960 5,872 5,861 5,850
Mean Household Income ABAG and EPS $88,300 $93,660 $94,330 $95,000
Median Household Income US Census and EPS $74,326 $80,445 $81,033 $79,965
Secondary Trade Area (Larkfield-Wikiup)

Population Claritas and EPS 7,479 7,588 7,602 not available
Households Claritas and EPS 2,735 2,761 2,764 not available
Jobs Claritas and EPS not available not available 2,387 not available
Mean Household Income Claritas and EPS $69,750 $86,226 $86,856 not available
Median Household Income Claritas and EPS $58,043 $71,754 $72,278 not available
30
Total Trade Area

Population sum of primary and secondary trade areas 30,223 34,059 34,316 not available
Households sum of primary and secondary trade areas 10,463 12,026 12,079 not available
Jobs sum of primary and secondary trade areas not available not available 8,248 not available
Mean Household Income Claritas and EPS $74,973 $92,683 $93,360 not available
Median Household Income Claritas and EPS $63,425 $78,407 $78,980 not available
Source: CA Dept. of Finance; ABAG; US Census; Claritas; Economic & Planning Systems, Inc.

5. RETAIL MARKET ASSESSMENT
This chapter evaluates the performance and trends in the Town of Windsor’s retail market. The
discussion focuses on the market demand and supply conditions within the Town and is intended
to provide insight into the long-term opportunities and constraints facing this sector in Windsor.
According to the retail sales data,9 the Town’s retail sales experienced robust growth of 8.3
percent per year between 2003 and 2006, but have experienced decreasing sales volume since
2006. As shown on Table 11 and Figure 4, retail sales in 2008 were back to 2004 levels in
nominal dollars and back to 2003 levels in inflation-adjusted dollars. This decrease is almost
certainly because of the challenging economic conditions that were triggered by the recent
collapse of the housing market and consistent with retail conditions across the nation and does
not necessarily signal a worrisome trend unique to Windsor. Table 12 shows taxable retail sales
in the Town of Windsor based on more detailed data than what is available from the SBE data
shown in Table 11. Categories of retail that are considered “Other Retail” in the SBE data are
more appropriately categorized in this table and allow for a more nuanced analysis of the
performance of particular categories.
Retail Sales by Location
According to data evaluated by HdL and provided by the Town in summary form for FY2009/10,
the Shiloh Commercial Center generates approximately 45 percent of the Town’s retail sales tax
revenues. This is up from 42.5 percent in the 4th quarter of 2008 and 40.6 percent in the 4th
quarter of 2007. Old Downtown Area generates approximately 4.2 percent of the Town’s retail
sales tax revenues, up from 3.5 percent at the end of FY 2008 and comparable to performance
at the end of FY 2007 (4.1 percent). The figures for the Lakewood Shopping Center do not
reflect sales at the whole center (i.e., sales at Lakewood Village Shopping Center and Lakewood
Shopping Center), but nevertheless, sales records indicate declining performance. In FY 2007,
the Lakewood Shopping Center generated 2.9 percent of Townwide sales, declining to 2.7
percent in FY 2008 and 2.3 percent currently.
Current Retail Demand
An understanding of current sales patterns is necessary to assess potential for various types of
retail. The analysis of retail sales inflows and outflows is designed to compare the supply of
retail in a Trade Area with demand generated by residents in a Trade Area.10 In this case, the
analysis examines the number of households in the Town, the average household income, and
the percentage of income that typically is spent on various retail goods and services and
9 Data from the State Board of Equalization (SBE) is through 2008.
10 For purposes of this analysis, the Trade Area is defined as the Town of Windsor.

Table 11
Town of Windsor Taxable Sales, 2003-2008 (2008$)
Retail Sales in $1,000s1 Growth (2003-2008)

City 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 # %
Annual
Taxable Sales [1]

Apparel Stores $247 $510 $987 $1,492 $1,620 $1,114 $867 35.1%
General Merchandise Stores [2] -- -- -- -- -- -- --
Food Stores [3] $19,119 $18,797 $18,635 $19,273 $18,147 $16,486 ($2,633) -2.9%
Eating and Drinking Places $20,676 $22,604 $24,744 $26,031 $26,562 $27,314 $6,638 5.7%
Home Furnishings and Appliances $2,468 $3,051 $3,394 $3,254 $2,892 $3,235 $767 5.6%
Building Materials and Farm Implements [2] -- -- -- -- -- -- --
Auto Dealers and Auto Supplies $6,173 $7,362 $8,160 $7,591 $7,009 $8,796 $2,623 7.3%
Service Stations [4] -- $23,851 $27,633 $31,758 $32,676 $33,303 $9,452
Other Retail Stores $164,583 $161,471 $166,553 $164,708 $143,250 $123,131 ($41,452) -5.6%
32
Total [5] $213,267 $237,647 $250,106 $254,108 $232,156 $213,379 $112 0.0%
[1] In thousands of dollars, adjusted for inflation based on the Consumer Price Index.
[2] Sales for this category are not published because of the limited number of retailers. In order to maintain the sales of individual retailers confidential,
the sales for this category are included in Other Retail Stores.
[3] Does not reflect sales that are tax exempt, such as sales of food for off-premises consumption and prescription medicines.
[4] Shows growth between 2004 and 2008.
[5] This data reports taxable sales transactions that occur in retail stores. Taxable sales attributed to other outlets are not included.
Sources: California State Board of Equalization; Bureau of Labor Statistics; Economic & Planning Systems, Inc.

Figure 4
Town of Windsor Taxable Sales, 2003-2008 (2008$)
Source: California State Board of Equalization; HdL Companies; Economic & Planning Systems, Inc.
$260,000
$250,000
$240,000
33
$230,000
$220,000
$210,000
$200,000
$190,000
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

Table 12
Town of Windsor Taxable Retail Sales, Detailed Account-Level Data, FY 2007/08
Taxable Retail Sales in $1,000s

City
Taxable Sales [1, 2]

Apparel Stores $1,722
General Merchandise Stores $78,453
Food Stores $20,017
Eating and Drinking Places $29,003
Home Furnishings and Appliances $4,119
Building Materials and Farm Implements $81,778
Auto Dealers and Auto Supplies $12,923
Service Stations $32,241
Contractors $11,803
Farm Products/Equipment $20,821
Wineries $20,599
Other Retail Stores $27,751
Subtotal, Other Retail Stores $80,974
Other, not reported in account data due to confidentiality $1
Total $341,231
[1] In thousands of dollars, nominal.

[2] Does not reflect sales that are tax exempt, such as sales of food for off-premises consumption
and prescription medicines.
Sources: California State Board of Equalization Retail Sales Account Data; Town of Windsor;

Town of Windsor
compares this expenditure potential to actual retail sales in the Town by category. A capture
rate of more than 100 percent indicates that the Trade Area has retail sales greater than the
demand generated by residents, indicating that the Trade Area is generating net sales from
customers outside of the Trade Area (sales injection). A capture rate of less than 100 percent
indicates that Trade Area residents are largely shopping for retail goods and services outside of
the Trade Area (sales leakage), without offsetting inflows of spending from residents of other
jurisdictions.
As shown on Table 13, the households in Windsor spend nearly $230 million on retail goods and
services. According to the State Board of Equalization’s detailed sales tax account data for the
Town, the retail stores in Windsor generate $378 million in sales (after adjusting for non-taxable
food sales).
To bracket this analysis, EPS also evaluated the relative performance of the Town’s retail sector
by compare average sales by retail category per household in Windsor to average sales per
household statewide. An average household in California spends about $6,000 per year more
than an average household in Windsor on retail goods (as shown on Table 14), indicating the
Town is experiencing retail sales far in excess of what the Town’s households are spending. This
sort of variance can signify the presence of business-to-business sales and/or injections of visitor
spending.
EPS adjusted the Town’s 2007/2008 retail sales account data to exclude business-to-business
sales from the leakage analysis equation—an appropriate adjustment given that such businesses
do not directly serve either residents or visitors, but represent major contributors to the Town’s
sales tax base. After this adjustment, “regular” Townwide retail sales to households and visitors
still sums to more than $311 million.11 Comparing typical Windsor household spending to actual
sales in Windsor results in an overall capture rate of 136 percent.
While this is a positive indicator, this analysis is more meaningful when evaluated for particular
retail categories, as capture in one category can off-set leakage in another, obfuscating
important variances, as shown in Figure 5.
Windsor performs exceptionally well in the “General Merchandise” category with a capture rate of
413 percent. This indicates that retailers, including Walmart, are pulling customers from outside
the Town’s limits. The “Building Material and Farm Implements” category captures sales nearly
four times beyond Windsor household demand. This category includes Home Depot which draws
customers from well beyond Windsor’s boundaries.
The “Food Stores” category has a capture rate of 161 percent, which means that food stores in
Windsor are drawing customers from outside of the Town. Given that Healdsburg, the next
closest community to the north, has its own adequate supply of grocery stores (e.g., Safeway,
11 To exclude business-to-business sales, EPS excluded sales from specific building materials retailers
that specialize in selling wholesale supplies to contractors and excluded 100 percent of sales in the
farm products/equipment category. EPS also excluded sales in “other retail” categories such as
“heavy industrial,” “petroleum products and equipment,” “business services,” “office equipment,”
“non-store retailers,” and “part-time permittees.”

Table 13
2008 Household Retail Sales and Estimated Demand in Windsor
2008 2008 2007/2008 Excess

Average HH Aggregate HH Retail Sales in Capture / 2008
Retail Retail Exps. Windsor (Leakage) Capture
Retail Category Expenditures [1] ($1,000s) [2] ($1,000s) [3] ($1000s) Rate
a b=a* HHs/1000 c d=c-b e=c/b
Apparel Stores $1,606 $14,530 $1,722 ($12,808) 12%

General Merchandise $2,100 $18,993 $78,453 $59,460 413%
Home Furnishings and Appliances $684 $6,190 $4,119 ($2,071) 67%
Bldg. Matrl. And Farm Implements $1,268 $11,472 $42,570 $31,099 371%
Auto Dealers and Auto Supplies $4,140 $37,454 $12,923 ($24,531) 35%
Other Retail Stores [4] $3,373 $30,514 $53,133 $22,619 174%
Food Stores [5] $3,939 $35,628 $57,192 $21,564 161%
Eating and Drinking Places $5,204 $47,078 $29,003 ($18,075) 62%
36
Service Stations $3,032 $27,424 $32,241 $4,817 118%

Total $25,346 $229,283 $311,356 $82,073 136%
[1] Based on 2008 median income. Calculated based on ABAG Projections 2009 assuming constant change in income annually between 2005 and 2010.
Assumes constant 84% ratio of median to mean income.
[2] Based on the total number of households in Windsor in 2008. Calculated based on ABAG Projections 2009 assuming
constant change in the number of households annually between 2005 and 2010.
[3] Sales have been adjusted to exclude business to business sales.
[4] Includes contractors, farm products/equipment, wineries, personal services, and other retail stores.
[5] Typically, only 35% of grocery purchases are taxable. SBE account sales tax data has been adjusted to reflect total retail sales.
Sources: BLS Expenditure Survey 2007-2008, SBE Retail Sales Account Data, FY 2007-2008, Economic & Planning Systems, Inc.

Table 14
Household Spending by Category Compared with State, 2008
Town of Windsor California

Item Total Sales Sales per HH Sales Sales per HH Difference
9,046 Households [1] 12,177,852 Households [2]
Apparel Stores $1,114,000 $123 $22,120,094,000 $1,816 ($1,693)

General Merchandise Stores -- -- $56,425,472,000 $4,633 --
Food Stores $16,486,000 $1,822 $21,504,308,000 $1,766 $57
Eating & Drinking Places $27,314,000 $3,019 $52,051,404,000 $4,274 ($1,255)
Home Furnishings & Appliances $3,235,000 $358 $17,199,187,000 $1,412 ($1,055)
Building Materials -- -- $26,647,007,000 $2,188 --
Motor Vehicles and Parts $8,796,000 $972 $54,540,171,000 $4,479 ($3,506)
Service Stations $33,303,000 $3,682 $52,015,249,000 $4,271 ($590)
Other Retail Stores $123,131,000 $13,612 $54,815,535,000 $4,501 $9,110
37
Total $213,379,000 $23,588 $357,318,427,000 $29,342 ($5,753)
[1] 2008 household estimate based on ABAG Projections 2009.

[2] Based on the 2006-2008 American Community Survey.
Source: ABAG, Projections 2009; CA State Board of Equalization; U.S. Census; Economic & Planning Systems, Inc.

Figure 5
Retail Sales and Estimated Demand
Sources: Town of Windsor: BLS Expenditure Survey; Economic & Planning Systems, Inc.
$90,000
$80,000
$70,000
$60,000
$50,000
$40,000
38
$30,000
$20,000
$10,000
$0
Apparel Stores General Home Bldg. Matrl. And Auto Dealers Other Retail Food Stores [3] Eating and Service
Merchandise Furnishings Farm and Auto Stores [2] Drinking Places Stations
and Appliances Implements Supplies
2008 Aggregate HH Retail Expenditures ($1,000s) 2007/2008 Retail Sales in Windsor ($1,000s) [1]
(1) SBE account-level data provided by the Town of Windsor has been adjusted to exclude business to business sales.
(2) Includes specialty stores; packaged liquor stores; second-hand merchandise; fuel and ice dealers; mobile homes, trailers, campers; boat, motorcycle, and plane
dealers; and business and personal services.
(3) Typically, only 35% of grocery purchases are taxable. SBE sales tax has been adjusted to reflect total retail sales.

Town of Windsor
Oakville Grocery, and Big John’s Market), it is most likely that customers are being drawn from
south and west of the Town. Still, there is reason to believe that Windsor is not fully capturing
its own residents’ potential expenditures on groceries and food items. A consumer survey would
have yielded more nuanced information about where Windsor residents do their grocery
shopping, but was not commissioned as part of this study. Anecdotally, however, it appears that
some Windsor residents will travel to Santa Rosa to shop at Whole Foods, Trader Joe’s, and
Costco—for products and shopping experiences not available in Town.
The “Other Retail Stores” category has a high capture rate of 174 percent, but it includes
contractors, farm products/equipment, wineries, personal services, and other retail stores that
can pull from a larger trade area.
The Town of Windsor is capturing just 12 percent of its potential household spending in “Apparel
Stores.” This retail category is experiencing significant leakage of resident spending. Without
confirmation from a consumer survey, it is difficult to say for certain, but it would seem that
Windsor residents are traveling to Santa Rosa, Petaluma, Marin County, San Francisco, and other
out-of-town shopping areas to purchase apparel.
Only 62 percent of household spending in the “Eating and Drinking Places” category is being
captured in the Town of Windsor. Again, it appears that many Windsor residents are traveling to
other cities for dining experiences, with relatively little inflow of dining expenditures from outside
the Town.
The Apparel and Eating and Drinking Places retail categories that are leaking sales suggest
unmet demand and retail development opportunities that could be mitigated by working to
attract retailers in these categories to the Town. These types of businesses are also highly
appropriate for a Downtown setting, particularly one in which a highly utilized space such as
Windsor’s Town Green can be relied upon to attract casual shoppers and patrons as part of their
numerous events. Dividing the absolute value of the leaked sales in each of these categories by
the Town’s average sales per square foot estimate yields the square footage that could be
supported by current levels of spending in the Town, as shown on Table 15. This translation
results in Townwide demand for 33,000 square feet of Apparel retailers and 46,000 square feet
of Eating and Drinking Places. These square footage figures represent current market
opportunities; as the Town’s population grows and spending power increases over time, still
more square footage should be supportable in these retail categories.
The development of new restaurants that offer unique dining experiences and cater to a full
range of customers from families to visiting business professionals should be prioritized in the
Downtown Area. Because the development and buildout of restaurants requires special
considerations (e.g., restrooms, kitchens, adequate venting), they should be anticipated early in
the planning process. These specialized provisions are expensive and difficult to accommodate
once the building is already constructed. Apparel stores and small-scale home furnishings stores
do not require such unique attributes, but should also be viewed as priority opportunities for
Downtown.
Certain other retail categories—including Home Furnishings and Appliances (67 percent capture)
and Auto Dealers and Auto Supplies (35 percent capture) —represent opportunities for the Town
overall, but may not be appropriate for the Downtown because of their typical requirements of

Table 15
2008 Estimated Retail Demand for Select Categories in Windsor (in Square Feet)
2008 2008 2007/2008 Excess 2008

Average HH Aggregate HH Retail Sales in Capture / Avg. Sales Townwide
Retail Retail Exps. Windsor (Leakage) per Sq. Ft. Demand for Retail
Retail Category Expenditures [1] ($1,000s) [2] ($1,000s) [3] ($1000s) [4] Square Footage
a b=a* HHs/1000 c d=c-b
Apparel Stores $1,606 $14,530 $1,722 ($12,808) $390 32,841

Home Furnishings and Appliances $684 $6,190 $4,119 ($2,071) $390 5,312
Eating and Drinking Places $5,204 $47,078 $29,003 ($18,075) $390 46,346
Subtotal
[1] Based on 2008 median income. Calculated based on ABAG Projections 2009 assuming constant change in income
annually between 2005 and 2010. Assumes constant 84% ratio of median to mean income.
40
[2] Based on the total number of households in Windsor in 2008. Calculated based on ABAG Projections 2009 assuming
constant change in the number of households annually between 2005 and 2010.
[4] Average sales per square foot based on Town's 2008 estimated average ($311 million in actual sales divided by 800,000
square feet of retail inventory).

Town of Windsor
large buildings, ample parking, and freeway accessibility for shoppers and freight trucks. Small-
scale Home Furnishings stores could certainly be appropriate in Downtown Windsor, but typical
“name brand” stores such as Pier One Imports or Bed, Bath, and Beyond typically seek locations
in more traditional shopping center formats, while upscale tenants like Crate & Barrel or Pottery
Barn seek larger local populations than are found in Windsor—which will remain a Town of
roughly 30,000 people for the foreseeable future.
The same analysis conducted for the secondary Trade Area (shown on Table 16), which includes
the community of Larkfield-Wikiup, results in a capture rate of 102 percent, meaning that even
after accounting for the demand generated by Larkfield-Wikiup residents, Windsor is capturing
more sales than the Total Trade Area residents are making.
Total Retail Demand

The previous discussion focused on the percent of household spending captured by the Town’s
retailers. However, employees and businesses also generate retail sales contributing to the
Town’s aggregate retail expenditures.
More specifically, employees spend money during the work day on items such as lunch, after
work drinks, dinner, general merchandise, grocery, variety, drug, and convenience items. The
International Council of Shopping Centers (ICSC) estimates that workers spend approximately
$152 per week on these goods.12 To avoid double counting, the spending of employees in
Windsor who also live in Windsor is only counted in household spending.
In addition, businesses spend money in the local economy to support their daily operations on
items such as food, and kitchen and office supplies. IMPLAN, the input/output modeling
program, estimates that the average Sonoma County office spends approximately $418 on retail
items per employee per year.
The sum of these three categories of retail expenditures (household, employee, and businesses)
are referred to as aggregate retail expenditures. When actual retail sales in the Town are
compared with aggregate retail expenditures as shown on Table 17, the Town’s overall capture
rate is 117 percent—still reflecting a net inflow of spending from outside the Town. The same
analysis prepared for the Total Trade Area results in an overall capture rate of 86 percent.
Future Retail Demand Potential

Based on the population and employment projections described previously, as well as ABAG’s
projected real growth in household income levels (beyond just basic inflation), Table 18
estimates the range of Townwide retail demand in 2035. The estimates consider aggregate
12 Estimate was inflated from $134 in 2003$ to $152 in 2008$, to match the year for which overall
sales tax data is available for the Town.

Table 16
2008 Household Retail Sales and Estimated Demand in Total Trade Area
2007/2008
2008 2008 Actual Excess
Average HH Aggregate HH Retail Sales in Capture / 2008
Retail Retail Exps. Windsor (Leakage) Capture
Retail Category Expenditures [1] ($1,000s) [2] ($1,000s) [3] ($1000s) Rate
a b=a* HHs/1000 c d=c-b e=c/b
Apparel Stores $1,609 $19,433 $1,722 ($17,711) 9%

General Merchandise $2,103 $25,402 $78,453 $53,051 309%
Home Furnishings and Appliances $685 $8,279 $4,119 ($4,160) 50%
Bldg. Matrl. And Farm Implements $1,270 $15,342 $42,570 $27,228 277%
Auto Dealers and Auto Supplies $4,147 $50,092 $12,923 ($37,169) 26%
Other Retail Stores [4] $3,379 $40,810 $53,133 $12,323 130%
Food Stores [5] $3,945 $47,649 $57,192 $9,543 120%
42
Eating and Drinking Places $5,213 $62,963 $29,003 ($33,960) 46%

Service Stations $3,036 $36,677 $32,241 ($4,436) 88%
Total $25,387 $306,648 $311,356 $4,709 102%
[1] Based on 2008 median income, which is derived from 2009 median income data according to CPI (see Table 2).
[2] Based on the total number of households in the Trade Area in 2009 (see Table 10).
[4] Includes contractors, farm products/equipment, wineries, personal services, and other retail stores.
[5] Typically, only 35% of grocery purchases are taxable. SBE sales tax has been adjusted to reflect total retail sales.

Table 17
Estimated Actual Sales and Retail Demand
2007/2008
2008 2008 2008 2008 Actual Excess
Household Employee Business Aggregate Retail Sales in Capture / 2008
Retail Exps. Retail Exps. Retail Exps. Retail Exps. Windsor (Leakage) Capture
Item ($1,000s) ($1,000s) [1] ($1,000s) [2] ($1,000s) ($1,000s) [3] ($1000s) Rate
Windsor $229,283 $35,187 [4] $2,450 $266,920 $311,356 $44,436 117%
Total Trade Area $306,648 $51,398 [5] $3,448 $361,494 $311,356 ($50,137) 86%
[1] ICSC Study estimates weekly spending of $134 in $2003. Estimate is inflated to $2008 by annual CPI. Assumes $152 per week and 50 weeks per year.
Includes workday retail spending on items such as lunch, after work drinks, dinner, general merchandise, grocery, variety, drug and convenience items.
[2] Based on IMPLAN average for Sonoma County office sectors estimated at $418 per employee per year.
43

[4] Based on 2009 jobs data and 2000 Journey-to-Work data, employee expenditure estimates exclude the 21 percent of Windsor jobs filled by Windsor
residents. The expenditure of residents that live and work in Windsor is captured by the estimate of household retail expenditures.
[5] Based on 2009 jobs data and 2000 Journey-to-Work data, employee expenditure estimates exclude the 18 percent of Windsor and Larkfield-Wikiup jobs
filled by Windsor and Larkfield-Wikiup residents.
Source: ICSC Research Quarterly, Spring 2004; Claritas; IMPLAN; BLS Expenditure Survey 2007-2008; SBE Taxable Sales 2008; Economic & Planning System

Table 18
Estimated Townwide Retail Demand, 2035
2035 2035 2035 2035 2035 2035 2008 (2008-2035)

Number of Average HH Household Employee Business Aggregate Aggregate Aggregate
Households [1] Retail Exps. Retail Exps. Retail Exps. Retail Exps. Retail Exps. Retail Exps. Retail Exps.
Item in (2008$) [2] ($1,000s) ($1,000s) [3] ($1,000s) [4] ($1,000s) ($1,000s) [5] % Change
ABAG Projections, 2030 10,370 $33,398 $346,336 $66,700 $4,644 $417,680 $266,920 56%
No Growth in Income [6] 10,370 $25,346 $262,842 $66,700 $4,644 $334,185 $266,920 25%
High Growth Estimate 15,403 $33,398 $514,414 $66,700 $4,644 $585,758 $266,920 119%
EPS Growth Estimate 12,290 $33,398 $410,460 $66,700 $4,644 $481,804 $266,920 81%
[1] ABAG projections assume 1,080 new households between 2010 and 2035. The high growth estimate continues the annual growth trend of the previous decade and assumes 6,113 new
households during the 25-year period. EPS's estimate assumes 3,000 new households between 2010 and 2035.
[2] ABAG 2009 Projections expect average household income to be $122,400 in 2035 (in constant $2005). Median household income is estimated to be $103,029 and is derived by assuming the
ratio of median income to mean income will remain constant at 84%. Estimate is inflated to $2008. Given the rise in household income, assumes households in 2035 will spend a smaller
percentage of income on retail expenditures, 31%. Based on BLS consumer expenditure data for various income groups.
44
[3] Based on 2000 Journey-to-Work data, employee expenditure estimates exclude the 21 percent of Windsor jobs filled by Windsor residents. The expenditure of residents that live and work in
Windsor is captured by the estimate of household retail expenditures. ICSC Study estimates weekly spending of $134 in $2003. Estimate is inflated to $2008 by annual CPI. Assumes $152 per
week and 50 weeks per year. Includes workday retail spending on items such as lunch, after work drinks, dinner, general merchandise, grocery, variety, drug and convenience items.
[4] Based on IMPLAN average for Sonoma County office sectors estimated at $418 per employee per year. This could be understated given high business to business sales in Windsor.
[5] See Table 17.
[6] Assumes household income will not experience real growth above inflation. Therefore, median household income will remain $78,282 (in constant 2008$) and households will continue to spend
32% of income on retail expenditures.
Source: ICSC Research Quarterly, Spring 2004; IMPLAN; BLS Expenditure Survey 2007-2008; SBE Taxable Sales 2008; Economic & Planning Systems, Inc.

Town of Windsor
household retail expenditures, aggregate employee retail spending, and aggregate business
retail expenditures. Using ABAG’s household growth projections, the future retail demand
analysis projects a 56 percent increase in Townwide retail demand in the next 25 years.13
The high household growth estimate results in a 119 percent increase in Townwide retail demand
in the next 25 years. EPS’s 3,000 unit household growth assumption results in an 81 percent
increase in Townwide retail demand. Assuming average retail sales of $390 per square foot in
2008 dollars, this increase in spending translates to demand for approximately 551,000 square
feet of retail space, as calculated in Table 19.14
Based on the retail capture/leakage analysis, the “Eating and Drinking” and “Apparel” categories
are leaking sales outside the Town. This leakage presents opportunities for developing
significant new square footage for these tenant types today, and those opportunities will grow in
the future as Windsor’s population, employment, and incomes increase.
13This estimate does not reflect increases in the amount of visitor spending in the Town between
2010 and 2035.
14 The Town’s actual retail sales (excluding business-to-business sales) divided by the Town’s
inventory of retail space (approximately 800,000 square feet) results in average sales per square foot
of approximately $390.

Table 19
Estimated Townwide Retail Demand, 2035 (in Square Feet)
2035 2008 (2008-2035) (2008-2035)

Aggregate Aggregate Aggregate Net Avg. Sales 2035 Demand
Retail Exps. Retail Exps. Retail Exps. Increase per Sq. Ft. for Retail
Item ($1,000s) [1] ($1,000s) [2] % Change ($1,000s) [3] Square Footage
ABAG Projections, 2035 $417,680 $266,920 56% $150,760 $390 386,565

No Growth in Income [4] $334,185 $266,920 25% $67,265 $390 172,476
High Growth Estimate $585,758 $266,920 119% $318,838 $390 817,534
EPS Growth Estimate $481,804 $266,920 81% $214,884 $390 550,986
[1] See Table 8.

46
[2] See Table 17.

[3] Based on previous EPS research.
[5] Assumes household income will not experience real growth above inflation. Therefore, median household income will remain $78,282 (in constant
2008$) and households will continue to spend 32% of income on retail expenditures.
Source: Economic & Planning Systems, Inc.

6. RETAIL DEVELOPMENT STRATEGIES
Based on ABAG population and employment projections through 2035, the number of households
is expected to increase by 0.4 percent per year while the number of jobs grows by 2.5 percent
per year, resulting in only modest increases in demand for new retail. Even using EPS’s more
optimistic household growth projections, the number of households is only expected to increase
by 3,000 units in the next 25 years. The implication of this limited growth potential is that to
maintain and grow existing levels of retail sales in the Town, Windsor will need to identify
strategies for increasing retail sales by tapping into other sources of demand.
Windsor is a family-friendly community, well-located along Highway 101 at the intersection of

the Russian River Valley, Alexander Valley, and Dry Creek Valley in Sonoma County’s wine
country, but it has not been able to fully capitalize on these assets and brand itself as a wine
country destination the way Healdsburg and other communities in the County have. However,
Windsor is a different town than it was just a decade ago. The Downtown, in particular, has
been transformed into an attractive mixed-use district with unique retail offerings, successful
restaurants, and family-friendly activities and events all oriented around the expansive Town
Green. Windsor is not likely to ever become Healdsburg, nor will it ever be Santa Rosa, but with
some strategic and timely repositioning, Windsor will be well positioned to build on its emerging
identity as a family friendly destination in Sonoma County’s wine country and capture more of
Sonoma’s County’s visitor spending in the process.
The Town’s retail development potential varies by category of retail and location within the Town.
The following discussion focuses on three strategic zones of retail in the Town, informed by
existing development patterns and potential opportunities. These zones include community
destination retail on either side of Highway 101 in the southern portion of the Town, the
Downtown Area, including the Bell Village Project site, and the northern portion of the Town,
along Highway 101 and Old Redwood Highway north of Arata Lane. The types of retail
categories assessed include: 1) local serving, 2) regional destination, and 3) visitor-based retail,
which includes tourism, business, and conference-serving retail.
Southern Windsor
The southern portion of the Town where the Shiloh Center is located has already emerged as the
Town’s regional retail node with the presence of large-scale big box retailers Walmart, Home
Depot, and Office Depot.
Regional Destination Retail
Regional retail centers are usually anchored by large department stores (such as Macy’s), “big
box” stores (such as Target), and/or a large movie theaters with nine or more screens. These
centers are filled with various “in-line” stores that complete the centers’ offering of an extensive
selection of general merchandise, as well as a broad range of services and activities. These
types of retail centers draw consumers from a broad trade area and thus rely on both local and
regional traffic. As such, regional retailers seek to locate in an area with high traffic volume,

Town of Windsor
freeway visibility and accessibility and a large population base. Below, each type of regional
retail in or near the Market Area is discussed, and potential for these uses within the Town is
evaluated.
Department Store-Anchored Retail

Regional malls are usually anchored by one or more department stores such as Macy’s and
Nordstrom and are co-located with a number of apparel and specialty stores. The Town does not
have any department stores that can serve as an anchor for a regional retail center. However,
there are two regional malls (Coddingtown and Santa Rosa Plaza) in Santa Rosa, within easy
driving distance of the Town. These regional malls have major department stores, such as
Macy’s, JC Penny, and Gottschalk’s (see Table 9). The City of Santa Rosa has a large
concentration of regional retailers, serving a large proportion of the County residents including
those from the Town’s Trade Areas.
Department stores often look to locate in an area with high traffic volume and population density
(i.e., over 200,000 population within the trade area). This is evident in the current location of
the department stores in the County. Both Coddingtown and Santa Rosa Marketplace are
located right off of Highway 101, in the most populated city in the County. While Windsor does
experience relatively high traffic volume because of its location along Highway 101, the Town’s
secondary retail Trade Area population is 33,500 well below the 200,000-plus population density
sought by department stores for their trade areas.
Even if Windsor is able to draw consumers from all the unincorporated areas of the County, the
population count is still well below the level required by department stores. Therefore, it would
be difficult to attract a national chain department store to Windsor. However, there are
independent department stores that are much smaller in scale (i.e., 15,000 to 20,000 square
feet), such as McCaulou’s15. These types of department stores may be willing to locate in
Windsor especially if the Town’s Market Area can be expanded by strengthening its appeal as a
unique shopping destination, and through effective marketing.
Big Box Retail

Retail stores in large industrial-style buildings and which draw consumers from a large trade area
are collectively referred to as “big box” retail. Discount stores such as Walmart and Target are
archetypes of such retail stores. In particular, big box retailers rely on auto traffic to draw
consumers. As such, freeway visibility and access, ample parking and high traffic volume are
critical to big box stores. In addition, “big box” retail stores compete heavily based on price.
Currently, the Town has a Walmart, a Home Depot, and an Office Depot. If more of this type of
retail use were to be desired, there are several key market considerations in attracting this type
of retailer. First, beyond the big box stores already located in Windsor, several big box stores
are already located within relatively close driving distances from the Town. Santa Rosa has
15 McCaulou’s is an independent department store featuring apparel as well as cosmetics and gift
items. There are currently nine locations in the Bay Area, including Lafayette, Moraga, Danville,
Oakland, Orinda, Sonoma, Walnut Creek, Concord and Napa. This retailer’s preferred size is 16,600
square feet according to the 2006 Retail Tenant Directory published by TradeDimensions.

Town of Windsor
one—if not two—of nearly every category of big box store. As shown on Table 9, there are
eleven big box stores within ten driving miles of the Town, representing nearly every national big
box chain. In fact, almost every chain already has two stores located in the County, targeting
shoppers from different regions of the County. On the other hand, the Town does enjoy direct
visibility and access from Highway 101, a key criterion for big box retailers. The Town also has
available land zoned Gateway Commercial, the zoning designation that supports regional retail
uses. Additionally, though it may seem counter-intuitive, the Town’s Walmart could actually
attract the interest of other General Merchandise big box stores that like to co-locate with one
another to some degree. The presence of a Walmart indicates that there is sufficient market
demand for general merchandise discount retail to support the store.
Target is reportedly interested in opening a store on the site west of Highway 101 and north of
Shiloh Road. Target stores typically require floor plates of approximately 120,000 square feet.
Though a Target would compete to some degree with the Walmart at Shiloh Center, as both
retailers sell discount general merchandise, it would also capture spending of residents north of
Windsor, residents in Windsor, and residents to the south into northern Santa Rosa. See Table
20 for locations of the nearest Target stores. Other big box stores to consider pursuing include
Best Buy, Old Navy, and Cost Plus.
Entertainment-Based Retail
A retail center anchored by an entertainment tenant can serve as a regional attraction. The
most common types of entertainment anchored retail centers are those with large movie
theatres surrounded by restaurants and other retailers. Typically about 10,000 residents are
required to support a movie screen. The Town of Windsor does not have a movie theater—the
closest theater is just south of the Town on Airport Blvd. A small independent or art-house
theater could be a good complement to the Town’s existing retail base, and there is adequate
population to support such a use.
Mini Outlet
A small scale outlet center may also be possible in the Town by serving tourists as well as the
local community’s demand for apparel and other consumer goods. While there is a large outlet
in Petaluma with over 50 stores, Windsor may be able to offer a much smaller-scale shopping
experience, consistent with and complementary to Downtown retail, to attract visitors who may
prefer unique small-town shopping experience on their way to other destinations.
One model is the 23,000-square foot outlet center in St. Helena. This center contains nine
tenants with a mix of men and women’s apparel and accessory stores as well as an art gallery
(e.g., Coach, Tumi, and Sunglasses Outfitters). It succeeds despite a large outlet center located
in the City of Napa by leveraging tourist traffic along with local resident demand.
Development Implications
To capture more of the regional retail dollars being spent outside of Windsor, the Town could try
to attract additional large format, general merchandise retailers to the southern part of Town.
EPS believes that Southern Windsor is the appropriate location for this category of retail, as
residents of Windsor and residents of communities north of Windsor are already driving through
Windsor to get to these stores; they are also driving past Windsor to shop at regional retail

Table 20
Competitive Supply of Big Box Retail
Driving Distance
From Windsor
Stores Address City (miles)
Office Depot 6400 Hembree Lane Windsor 0

Home Depot 6280 Hembree Lane Windsor 0
Walmart 6650 Hembree Lane Windsor 0
Target 1980 Santa Rosa Ave Santa Rosa 10
Office Depot 1960 SANTA ROSA AVENUE Santa Rosa 10
Kohl's 3746 Airway Dr. Santa Rosa 10
Bed Bath & Beyond 2785 Santa Rosa Avenue Santa Rosa 10
Home Depot 100 Bicentennial Way Santa Rosa 10
Best Buy 1950 Santa Rosa Ave Santa Rosa 10
Trader Joe's 3225 Cleveland Avenue Santa Rosa 10
Trader Joe's 2100 Santa Rosa Ave. Santa Rosa 10
Target 475 Rohnert Park Expy W Rohnert Park 17
Walmart 4625 Redwood Dr Rohnert Park 17
Home Depot 350 N Orchard Ave Ukiah 50
Walmart 1155 Airport Park Blvd Ukiah 50
Source: Shopping Center Directory; Respective Retailer Websites; Economic & Planning Systems, Inc.

Town of Windsor
stores in Santa Rosa. This could draw the Larkfield-Wikiup population between Windsor
and northern Santa Rosa. If the Town of Windsor increased its supply of regional retailers in the
southern part of the Town, the Larkfield-Wikiup population could be attracted north.
There are opportunity sites for regional retail south of Shiloh Road and east of Highway 101,
such as the Vicinni site and opportunity sites across Highway 101, north of Shiloh Road, such as
the Oluf property (current General Plan designations notwithstanding). There is also vacant land
designated “Gateway Commercial” north and south of the Highway interchange (west of Highway
101), but as currently configured, these parcels are not attractive to large-format retailers
because of inadequate site acreage. Furthermore, even though these sites are located right at
the interchange, the on and off ramps are difficult to navigate at this location. However, if these
parcels were consolidated with the adjacent Oluf property, for example, or the adjacent land
designated “Light Industrial,” the site becomes more attractive to regional retailers. The parcels
designated “Light Industrial” are currently occupied. The current property and business owners
could be approached to determine whether or not they are potentially interested in consolidating
their operations into a more efficient site layout, which would increase the land available for
destination regional retail in southern Windsor.
Downtown Windsor
With the development of Old Downtown and the Village Green in the early 2000s, Downtown
Windsor is maturing into an attractive center of Town life. (See Figure 6 for a map of the
Downtown Area that highlights each of the key subareas discussed below.) The retail space is
nearly fully occupied and generating strong per square foot rents, despite current market
conditions. However, the current mix of stores is not serving the Town as well as it might. The
retail offerings include unique gift and craft shops, jewelry stores, and other specialty stores, but
they do not provide the goods and services Town residents and employees seek on a daily basis.
Old Downtown lacks a true retail anchor that keeps residents and employees returning to the
area to browse and shop. An anchor would induce shoppers to park once and run a number of
errands all in one trip.
The Town Green acts as an occasional anchor for the area, hosting frequent events during the
temperate spring, summer and fall months such as the Easter Egg Hunt, the Windsor Days
Parade, the 4th of July Concert and Fireworks Show, the Wings over Wine Country Air Show,
Summer Nights on the Green, and the weekly Farmers Market. Though the Town’s events are
extremely successful, drawing crowds that pack the Town Green, the events are not activating
the retail businesses in the rest of the Downtown to the extent they perhaps could. Some
businesses, such as Powell’s Sweet Shoppe and the take-away eateries benefit from the activity,
but most do not.
The development of new restaurants that offer unique dining experiences and cater to a full
range of customers from families to visiting business professionals should be prioritized in the
Downtown Area. Apparel stores and small-scale home furnishings stores should also be viewed
as priority opportunities for Downtown.

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Town of Windsor
Anchor Concepts
EPS spoke with a number of Windsor market experts, including the Executive Director of the
Chamber of Commerce, developers who have worked and are working in Town, Town staff, and a
real estate broker familiar with the Windsor market. They all agree that Downtown is lacking an
anchor, and there were several “anchor” concepts that emerged in the discussions between EPS
and key individuals during the development of the retail market analysis and positioning
strategy, including a grocery store, a boutique hotel, and a meeting/conference facility. Several
specific sites also emerged as opportunity sites worthy of evaluation.
100 Market
One site that has potential to serve as a Downtown anchor is 100 Market. 100 Market, located at
the northeastern end of the Town Green, was the home of Windsor Vineyards until earlier this
year. The current owner envisions the 42,000 square foot property as a landmark retail building.
However, the building was recently leased to a solar panel component manufacturer for a five-
year term, so it will not be available for retail tenanting, at least in the near term.
Given the property’s location right on the Town Green, the retail vision may make sense in the
longer term; however, repeated efforts to attract the attention of grocery, pharmacy, and
specialty food retailers have failed. For many grocers, the demographics of the Trade Area
simply do not align with the number of households they know they need to achieve their target
sales. Other grocers cite the unconventional floorplate, the lack of parking, and the lack of
visibility.
There are less conventional food related uses that could be considered. The “locavore”
movement that emphasizes only consuming foods that are grown or harvested within a 100-mile
radius, the slow foods movement that links food with a commitment to community and the
environment, and, of course, the increasing emphasis on organic farming practices all suggest
growing demand for food shopping experiences beyond what a standard, national-chain
supermarket can provide. While concepts like the Ferry Building in San Francisco or the Oxbow
Public Market in Napa would not be feasible given the scale at which they need to operate to
sustain themselves and the size of Windsor’s population base, a smaller, more rustic market
could operate out of 100 Market.
100 Market has also been considered for a hotel, which could be an attractive presence on the
Town Green and would bring visitors to the Downtown. However, to be financially feasible, the
hotel would need to include approximately 200 to 250 rooms, which would likely require a total
reconstruction of the building, including underground parking, or acquisition of adjacent sites for
surface parking.
The concept of a meeting and convention facility could work well with the floorplate of 100
Market. There is a large central area that could serve as the banquet hall, and there are
perimeter offices that could serve as meeting rooms. There could be synergies in being on the
Town Green; events could take advantage of the expansive open space right out in front.
Concerns about this concept are primarily operational: it would need an operator; it is poorly

Town of Windsor
parked; and because it would stand-alone without the benefit of subsidization by hotel rooms, it
would likely require financial operating assistance. This concept is discussed further in
Chapter 8.
Ideas for Further Study
The prime location of 100 Market, centrally located in the Downtown and overlooking the Town
Green, potentially lends itself to a civic use. Currently, Town Hall is located in several adjacent
but separate buildings that used to be occupied by the School District. The site is inefficiently
used and the structures are not consistent with New Urbanist aesthetic of the rest of the
Downtown. One strategy could be to relocate Town Hall’s operations to 100 Market and free up
the civic center parcels for consolidation, disposition, and development of a 200-plus room hotel,
spa and sports club, and conference, meeting and event facility. This facility could be developed
as Windsor’s version of the Sonoma Mission Inn and be a very attractive addition to Old
Downtown.16 This strategy would complete the Town Green in that the Green would be
completely surrounded by active uses, and more importantly, it would allow Windsor to capture
more of Sonoma County’s visitor dollars.
If this complicated but potentially transformative strategy is compelling, a master plan study
should be prepared that evaluates the physical requirements and design of the reconfigured
area, as well as the financial considerations that would be involved, including an analysis of the
outstanding public debt on the current Town Hall site and potential financing strategies for
necessary consolidation and infrastructure improvements.
Northern Windsor
Beyond Bonaventure Plaza, there is a significant amount of land in northern Windsor on either
side of Highway 101 that is designated Gateway Commercial. As noted previously, EPS believes
the most appropriate location within the Town for regional retail is in southern Windsor around
the Shiloh interchange. Northern Windsor may be more appropriate for residential or mixed use
development. Apart from the types of retail stores that serve nearby residents, northern
Windsor does not display strong retail development potential. However, as the Town’s
population increases, additional demand for neighborhood retail shopping may emerge.
Grocery-Anchored Neighborhood Shopping Center
Neighborhood retail shopping centers typically need an anchor tenant to provide the main draw
for customers and lend a central and unifying identity to the location. Local serving shopping
centers are often anchored by a grocery store and/or drug store and attract tenants that cater
to local residents, such as dry cleaners, nail salons, and eating and drinking places. In fact, it is
very difficult to establish a neighborhood shopping center without a significantly-sized grocery
16 The Fairmont Sonoma Mission Inn is a 226-room inn with 12,000 square feet of indoor meeting
space and another 12,000 square feet of outdoor event space.

Town of Windsor
store. Typically, this type of retail center occupies 75,000 to 150,000 square feet of space.
Examples of this type of retail center in Windsor include Lakewood Village Shopping Center and
Lakewood Shopping Center.
Auto Dealerships
Sanderson Ford is currently operating in Healdsburg but has been approved to develop a
dealership at the northernmost point of the Town. When customers are looking to buy a car,
they will travel well beyond their primary trade area to do so, so locating at the northern point of
Town rather than the southern point where EPS recommends the Town’s regional destination
retail should be located is not a significant risk. Furthermore, there appears to be unmet
demand in the “Auto Dealers and Auto Supplies” category. Currently, the Town is leaking sales
this category, capturing only 35 percent of residents’ spending. Despite dramatic changes in the
economics of the auto industry and evolving consumer behavior with respect to how people buy
cars, an auto dealership would be a significant fiscal benefit to the Town.

7. BELL VILLAGE
The Bell Village Project is located northeast of Old Redwood Highway across from the Civic
Center and Library. In addition to approximately 400 residential units, the project proposes
77,500 square feet of commercial space, including 12,000 square feet of office space and 65,500
square feet of retail. The retail component includes a 32,500- square foot specialty grocery
market, a 21,000-square foot pharmacy, and 12,000 square feet of general in-line retail.
This chapter evaluates the potential impact of 65,500 square feet of proposed commercial retail
space at the Bell Village site on existing retail Downtown as well as on the supply of vacant land
that is zoned for commercial use.
Bell Village Project Retail Mix

The Bell Village retail component includes a 32,500-square foot specialty grocery market, a
21,000-square foot pharmacy, and 12,000 square feet of general in-line retail on approximately
six acres. A retail sales flow analysis based on 2008 household spending and retail sales in the
Town shows the level of sales in the categories of Food Stores and General Merchandise are well
beyond what might be expected based on the aggregate household spending in the Town.17 As
shown on Table 13, these findings suggest insufficient demand currently for new conventional
retailers in these categories, although as the Town grows, new households may be able to
support additional retail. The sales flow analysis is not able to distinguish between conventional
and specialty food stores, as discussed below. Each of the primary proposed uses is discussed in
more detail in the following text.
Grocery Store
Many believe that the Downtown is missing a grocery store, particularly a grocery store that
provides a different shopping experience than Raley’s and Safeway at the Lakeview Center. EPS
used two different methodologies to analyze potential demand for a grocery store in order to
evaluate whether an additional grocery store can be supported in the Town.
Currently, there are two major grocery stores in Windsor (Raley’s and Safeway), in addition to
several other grocery stores, including Fast & Easy Mart, Windsor Market, Sam’s Market, and
Martin’s Market. According to U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) data, a typical household
spends about 5 percent of its income on grocery items. Based on the existing 9,300 households
in the Town and a median, 2010 income of $86,000, a total of $40 million of potential sales
exists within the Town for grocery items (see Table 21). Grocery stores typically require per-
square foot sales volume of approximately $500, which translates to approximately
17 The grocery store would be categorized as a “Food Store” and the pharmacy and associated in-line
retail would be categorized as “General Merchandise.”

Table 21
Grocery Store Demand Analysis, 2035
2010 2009 2035 2035 2035

Windsor Total Trade Area Windsor Windsor Windsor
Item ABAG Claritas ABAG High Growth EPS Growth
Households 9,290 12,079 10,370 15,403 12,290
Median HH Income (in 2010$) [1] $86,145 $80,165 $110,992 $110,992 $110,992
Aggregate HH Income $800,290,642 $968,309,411 $1,150,982,163 $1,709,556,482 $1,364,085,900
Retail Expenditure on Grocery [2] $40,014,532 $48,415,471 $57,549,108 $85,477,824 $68,204,295
Required Sales/ Sq. Ft./ Year for a New Store [3] $500 $500 $500 $500 $500
57
Supportable Sq. Ft. of Grocery Store 80,029 96,831 115,098 170,956 136,409
Existing Major Grocery Stores (Sq. Ft.) [4] 109,100 109,100 109,100 109,100 109,100
Additional Supportable Grocery Store (Sq. Ft.) (29,071) (12,269) 5,998 61,856 27,309
[1] The median household income for the Total Trade Area is a 2009 estimate inflated to 2010$.
[2] Assumes households spend 5% of their income on grocery items, based on typical household retail spending patterns in the Bay Area.
[3] Required sales per square foot estimate is based on prior EPS research.
[4] Includes Raley's (56,500 sq.ft.) and Safeway (52,600 sq. ft.).
Source: Association of Bay Area Governments (ABAG); Claritas; U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS); Shopping Center Directory;

Town of Windsor
80,000 square feet of supportable grocery square footage. The Town currently has more than
109,000 square feet of grocery stores, based on the combined square footage of Raley’s and
Safeway only.
The retail sales flow analysis mentioned described earlier compares aggregate household
spending in a particular retail category with actual retail sales in that category. In 2008, Food
Stores captured 161 percent of household spending on grocery items, indicating that the Town is
capturing sales from households outside the Town.
When taking the 12,000 households in the larger Trade Area at a median household income of
$80,000, approximately 97,000 square feet of grocery stores can be supported (also shown on
Table 21). Together, the major grocery stores in the Market Area total approximately 110,000
square feet, leaving no room for another conventional grocery store carrying similar lines of
products as the existing ones.
However, this type of analysis looks at gross sales flows and belies what we anecdotally know to
be true; in the case of grocery stores, while consumers from outside the Town are spending
some of their grocery dollars in the Town, some percentage of Windsor households travel to
Santa Rosa to shop at niche grocery retailers such as Whole Foods, Trader Joes, and Costco.
Both analytical approaches suggest insufficient demand for a new conventional grocery store at
the present time. More specifically, a new conventional grocery store is likely to take sales away
from existing stores rather than serve additional demand. However, households in the Town
have relatively high incomes relative to households Countywide and high incomes are typically
accompanied by a preference for specialty food items. Further, the Town’s population is not
static and will increase in the coming years. Using EPS’s household growth projections, there
may be demand for additional grocery space beginning in around 2025, as shown on Table 22.
An additional 27,000 square feet of grocery retail could be supported by 2035. A small-format,
quality grocery store, offering local, organic produce and specializing in prepared foods could
potentially retain some of this lost local spending, and be viable over the long term in the Town
of Windsor—particularly in the Downtown area.
Pharmacy
There are several pharmacies already located in the Town in Windsor. At Lakewood Village,
there is a CVS, as well as pharmacies inside both Raley’s and Safeway. There is also a pharmacy
in the Walmart at Shiloh Village, and there is a fifth pharmacy located Downtown called Health
First! Health First! is a pharmacy and compounding center that specializes in homeopathic
medicine. Because Health First! caters to different segment of the market than the Town’s other
conventional pharmacies, its sales are unlikely to be impacted by a new pharmacy at Bell Village.
However, some current sales from the other existing pharmacies would likely be cannibalized by
the new pharmacy.

Table 22
Windsor Grocery Store Demand Analysis Based on EPS Household Growth Projections
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035

Windsor Windsor Windsor Windsor Windsor Windsor
Item EPS Growth EPS Growth EPS Growth EPS Growth EPS Growth EPS Growth
Households [1] 9,290 9,825 10,390 10,988 11,621 12,290
Median HH Income (in 2010$) [2] $86,145 $89,773 $93,128 $98,296 $104,553 $110,992
Aggregate HH Income $800,290,642 $881,995,890 $967,629,376 $1,080,127,732 $1,215,017,059 $1,364,085,900
Retail Expenditure on Grocery [3] $40,014,532 $44,099,795 $48,381,469 $54,006,387 $60,750,853 $68,204,295
Required Sales/ Sq. Ft./ Year for a New Store [4] $500 $500 $500 $500 $500 $500
Supportable Sq. Ft. of Grocery Store 80,029 88,200 96,763 108,013 121,502 136,409
Existing Major Grocery Stores (Sq. Ft.) [5] 109,100 109,100 109,100 109,100 109,100 109,100
59
Additional Supportable Grocery Store (Sq. Ft.) (29,071) (20,900) (12,337) (1,087) 12,402 27,309
[1] Based on EPS's household growth projection through 2035.

[2] The median household income is an ABAG estimate inflated to 2010$.
[3] Assumes households spend 5% of their income on grocery items, based on typical household retail spending patterns in the Bay Area.
[4] Required sales per square foot estimate is based on prior EPS research.
[5] Includes Raley's (56,500 sq.ft.) and Safeway (52,600 sq. ft.).
Source: Association of Bay Area Governments (ABAG); U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS); Shopping Center Directory; Economic & Planning Systems, Inc.

Town of Windsor
Assessment of Impact of Bell Village
The mix of retail uses proposed for the Bell Village site is not likely to compete directly with
Downtown retailers, and therefore, unlikely to have a physical impact on Downtown in terms of
increased vacancies. Rather, if appropriately located, a specialty grocery store along with other
resident-serving retail could attract shoppers to the Downtown area. That said, EPS believes
that the Downtown area would be better served by bringing the grocery to the other side of Old
Redwood Highway and along Windsor River Road. A new conventional pharmacy, however,
could attract sales away from existing pharmacies such as those located at the Lakewood Village
Center as well as the pharmacy in Walmart.
If this retail is developed and attracts sales of $390 per square foot per year on average, the Bell
Village Project represents $25.5 million of sales per year, or 7 percent of the Town’s sales in
2008.18 This amount of retail at the Bell Village Project site could extend the existing retail
cluster in the Downtown while serving the development’s new residents, as well as existing
residents in the Downtown area.
Ideas for Further Study
The Bell Village Project could serve to extend Downtown north of Old Redwood Highway, but only
if the improved pedestrian connections and streetscape improvements along the Highway are
designed to really integrate the southern portion of the Bell Village site and the Downtown (see
Figure 6.) If the retail planned for the Bell Village site is determined to be infeasible, or the
project does not otherwise move forward for some reason, the concept of a hotel, spa and sports
club, and conference, meeting and event facility may be appropriate for the Bell Village Project
Site. Hotel guests and conference attendees will be more willing to cross Old Redwood Highway
to walk Downtown for a meal out at a restaurant or some casual shopping than residents might
be. The retail component of the project currently proposed for the Bell Village Project site could
be a strong use for the current Town Hall site if Town Hall consolidated its services in 100
Market. Relocating the Bell Village retail to the Town Hall site would bring a grocer, a pharmacy,
and other inline, neighborhood-serving retailers to the Downtown, allowing for even better
integration of Downtown’s retail offerings.
As with the 100 Market option described previously, this strategy could be a game-changer for
the Downtown, but a master plan study that evaluates the site planning and the financial
considerations that would be involved should be prepared.
18 65,500 x $390 = $25,545,000

8. VISITOR-SERVING RETAIL AND HOSPITALITY MARKET
ASSESSMENT
Sonoma County is a major tourist destination, attracting domestic as well as international

travelers. Table 23 compares visitor-generated tax receipts by Bay Area county and indicates
that Sonoma County generates $28.2 million in visitor tax receipts. Despite the economic
downturn that caused a dip in the tourism industry, the County overall has a $1 billion tourism
industry, which is expected to diversify and continue to grow.19 Located along a major highway
at the hub of the Russian River Valley, the Dry Creek Valley, and Anderson Valley, Windsor can
promote its position and proximity to the County’s wineries, coast, and other attractions.
Although the Town’s location along Highway 101 makes for convenient access, the Town does
not currently offer a major attraction or an identifiable theme with which to draw County visitors
and capture their retail spending. The Town could position itself to capture an even greater
share of the County’s visitor spending activity by developing and strengthening opportunities to
serve the visitor market. Several tourism-related retail concepts that may be able to help build
or sustain Windsor as a tourist destination are described below.
Branding and Place-Making
As noted above, one key aspect of successful tourist-oriented retail districts is its unique identity
or “brand”. Oftentimes this brand is centered around one key or anchor attraction (e.g.,
Yosemite, Hollywood, Disneyland) but it can also be associated with a series of related concepts
(e.g., art, wine, nature). For example, Carmel has successfully integrated images of the ocean,
culture (e.g., art galleries and dining), architecture, and history into an identifiable brand that
attracts tourists worldwide. The Sebastopol Chamber of Commerce is currently engaged in an
identity project. One theme that has already surfaced is a focus on “wellness”-related
businesses (e.g. businesses focused on physical or mental health for therapeutic and/or
recreation/leisure purposes). Windsor needs to explore options that resonate with the Town’s
family values and location in the heart of Sonoma’s wine country, that are not limited to summer
activities on the Town Green. Windsor is a “real” community nestled in the wine country that
celebrates local agriculture and produce, wine, and family.
Downtown Retail
Windsor’s Downtown already has established clusters of retail in “main street” configuration, a
gathering place for the community that is pedestrian-friendly with narrow streets and clusters of
specialty stores and eateries. This retail space currently has very low vacancy. A Chamber of
Commerce representative indicated that the first wave of retailers to occupy the Downtown in
the mid-2000s may have overestimated the spending power of Windsor’s residents. There has
19 Sonoma County Economic Development Board, 2006 Tourism Report, June 2006.

Table 23
Visitor-Generated Tax Receipts by County
% of
2007 Receipts Receipts per California
County (in millions) Household Receipts
San Francisco $283.8 $884 13.1%

Napa $31.1 $649 1.4%
San Mateo $65.9 $262 3.0%
Santa Clara $98.9 $171 4.6%
Sonoma $28.2 $162 1.3%
Alameda $73.3 $139 3.4%
Marin $11.0 $110 0.5%
Contra Costa $25.4 $69 1.2%
Solano $7.5 $55 0.3%
Bay Area Total $625.1 -- 28.8%
California $2,166.8 $176 100.0%
Source: California Travel Impacts by County, 1992-2007 by: Dean

Runyan Associates, Inc.; Economic & Planning Systems, Inc.

Town of Windsor
been some turnover and current retailers have more accurately gauged the Town’s customer
base. Brokers active in the area indicate a strong demand and quick turnover of retail space in
the Downtown.
As discussed previously, the retail cluster in the Downtown already plays a significant role in
attracting shoppers from the Market Area by offering a unique, small-town shopping experience
that is not available in neighboring Santa Rosa. However, the Downtown area will continue to
evolve, and Windsor’s Old Downtown appears to be a particularly appropriate location for Apparel
Stores and Eating and Drinking Places, as these tend to be relatively small-scale businesses that
benefit from programmed spaces such as the Town Green, which attracts window shoppers and
diners through its evening and weekend events. The Eating and Drinking Places permitted
Downtown should stand apart from the fast-food/ family-style eateries located at the Shiloh
Center and the Lakewood Village Shopping Center by serving alcohol and by the quality of the
food and service offered. Smaller Home Furnishings stores may also be appropriate for
Downtown Windsor, although trends in “name brand” Home Furnishing stores suggest they may
prefer larger buildings in freeway-oriented locations, as are available elsewhere in Windsor.
Local Boutiques
Tourist-oriented retail districts often succeed by providing a unique mix of small-scale “boutique”
stores that offer arts, crafts, clothing, accessories and other goods or services with a distinctive
local flavor. By definition, this retail strategy in not formulaic and the actual tenant mix and
product types will differ depending on the location. However, such districts often include a mix
of dining and local eateries, galleries, and independent establishments providing both goods and
services (e.g., spa).
Meeting/Conference Facility
Discussions with the Executive Director of the Agatha Furth Center suggested that there is unmet
demand for an event facility in the Town of Windsor. The Agatha Furth Center is the Town’s only
event facility that offers a large, elegant hall, with enough space to seat 450 people. The facility
is operating at capacity, and because it is operated by the Our Lady of Guadalupe Catholic
Church, its priority is to accommodate the church’s needs and events.
Though there are other facilities in the area that can be rented out for events, ranging from the
Sonoma County Veterans Hall to high-end wineries, there is reported demand for a
meeting/conference/event facility that can accommodate 500 or more people for a sit-down
meal. Types of events could include private celebrations (e.g., weddings, quinceñeras,
anniversary and birthday parties), private community serving events (e.g., fundraisers for
Rotary, Kiwanis, and other business organizations), and community events sponsored by non-
profit and educational organizations (e.g., award banquets for schools, proms, conferences). In
addition to serving local demand, such a facility could also allow the Town to tap into the
County’s strong visitor industry by serving the sizable market for “drive-to” conferences,
business meetings, and seminars—all of which can draw visitors from outside the area.

Town of Windsor
However, the economics of operating a stand-alone meeting/ conference facility are challenging
and such facilities typically require financial support. Financial support could take the form of
public investment or the operations of the facility can be cross-subsidized by an adjacent and/or
interconnected hotel.
Boutique Hotel
There are two hotels in Town—the Hampton Inn & Suites and the Holiday Inn Express—as well
as a time share resort, WorldMark Windsor by Wyndham, as shown on Table 24. The Hampton
Inn and Holiday Inn Express offer relatively affordable lodging options to the County visitors.
The occupancy rate at the Hampton Inn Suites is approximately 70 percent, which is considered
to be the threshold for operational feasibility. Occupancy rates at the Holiday Inn Express were
not available; however, the Town is reportedly interested in preparing further analysis to
evaluate potential future demand for a new hotel. According to the Sonoma County Tourism
Bureau, the year-do-date hotel occupancy rate for the County was about 65 percent for the year,
up about 5 percent from last year.
As noted above, the current demand for hotel rooms in Windsor is served primarily by two
moderately priced establishments. If visitor demand growth continues to expand as expected,
the Town will be well positioned to support additional lodging facilities (especially higher end
ones) in the future. A high-end inn or boutique hotel would serve this market.
The “inn” concept could apply to a smaller hotel of 150 to 250 rooms with conferencing facilities
and could include a spa as well. This facility could be developed as Windsor’s version of the
Sonoma Mission Inn (a 226-room facility) and be a very attractive addition to the Town. More
importantly, it would allow Windsor to capture more of Sonoma County’s visitor dollars. It is
important to note that the success of these operations depends heavily on the expertise,
business acumen, and resources of individual operators.
If further analysis suggests demand for a new hotel, the Downtown Area is a logical central
location with good freeway access, adjacency to retail and restaurants, and proximity to the
Train Station, which will eventually serve SMART Train passengers.
If the Town is interested in pursuing the development of a boutique hotel and adjoining
conferencing facility, the Casa Madrona Hotel & Spa in Sausalito could serve as a model for this
hybrid concept. Casa Madrona offers 5,000 square feet of flexible meeting space that can be
used for business meetings, executive retreats, and company banquets. The operations of Casa
Madrona are supported by the boutique hotel which offers 32 rooms.
Examples of joint hotel and conferencing facilities in the competitive Trade Area are summarized
below:
• Hyatt Vineyard Creek Hotel and Spa is located off Highway 101 in Santa Rosa. In
addition to 155 guestrooms, amenities include a full-service spa, sculpture garden, 12-foot
fire pit, as well as a restaurant and multiple lounges. The hotel offers 15,000 square feet of
indoor meeting space including 15 meetings spaces that range from board rooms to

Town of Windsor
ballrooms. For weddings and outdoor events, the Hyatt features two gardens and a courtyard
that total 22,000 square feet. The hotel and spa appears to sit on site that is approximately
10 acres.
• Fountaingrove Inn Hotel and Conference Center is situated in the northern part of Santa
Rosa along Highway 101 on a site that appears to be fewer than five acres. The hotel offers
123 guestrooms as well as 7,000 square feet of conference space with close proximity to
Fountaingrove Golf and Athletic Club, a private club featuring an award-winning Ted
Robinson Sr. designed golf course, and a 10,000 sq. ft. athletic facility.
• Flamingo Conference Resort and Spa is found on the east side of Santa Rosa off Highway
12. This hotel provides 13,000 square feet of meeting space and 170 guestrooms. The
Flamingo promotes its 20,000 square-foot health club which includes five tennis courts,
Olympic size pool, and group exercise room. The resort and spa appears to sit on a site that
is approximately 12 acres.

Table 24
Town of Windsor Hotel Market Indicators, 2010
Opening # of Occupancy Avg $/Room

Name of Establishment Date Rooms Rate Weekend Weekday
Hotel Inventory
Holiday Inn Express June-05 75 not available $170 $139
Hampton Inn Suites November-08 116 70% $179 $139
Trend West by Windham (time-share) [1]
Subtotal 191 $175 $139
[1] Trend West by Windham is a time share that makes unreserved rooms available to the public as part of the hotel market. The
irregularity of this occurrence make it difficult to track occupancy and room rates.
66
Sources: Individual hotel websites; Hampton Inn Suites; Economic & Planning Systems, Inc.

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Final Report

Economic & Planning Systems, Inc.

1. INTRODUCTION AND SUMMARY OF FINDINGS .................................................................. 1

Summary of Findings ................................................................................................ 3

Recommended Strategies and Actions ......................................................................... 6

2. DEMOGRAPHIC AND EMPLOYMENT CONDITIONS AND TRENDS ............................................... 9

Population and Household Growth Trends .................................................................... 9

Age, Ethnicity, and Income ........................................................................................ 9

Job Profile .............................................................................................................. 14

Commute and Work Location Patterns ....................................................................... 14

ABAG Population and Employment Projections ............................................................ 18

Alternative Household Growth Projections .................................................................. 18

3. RETAIL MARKET AREA AND CONTEXT ......................................................................... 21

Regional Retail Context............................................................................................ 21

Local Retail Context ................................................................................................ 21

4. TRADE AREA BOUNDARIES ..................................................................................... 27

Definition of Windsor’s Trade Areas ........................................................................... 27

5. RETAIL MARKET ASSESSMENT ................................................................................. 31

Retail Sales by Location ........................................................................................... 31

Current Retail Demand ............................................................................................ 31

Total Retail Demand ................................................................................................ 41

Future Retail Demand Potential................................................................................. 41

6. RETAIL DEVELOPMENT STRATEGIES .......................................................................... 47

Southern Windsor ................................................................................................... 47

Downtown Windsor ................................................................................................. 51

7. BELL VILLAGE ................................................................................................... 56

Bell Village Project Retail Mix.................................................................................... 56

Assessment of Impact of Bell Village ......................................................................... 60

8. VISITOR-SERVING RETAIL AND HOSPITALITY MARKET ASSESSMENT ..................................... 61

Branding and Place-Making ...................................................................................... 61

Table 2: Age Distribution in Town of Windsor and Sonoma County ..................................... 11

Table 3: Windsor and Sonoma County Population by Ethnicity........................................... 12

Table 4: Household Income Distribution ......................................................................... 13

Table 5: Town of Windsor and Sonoma County Distribution of Jobs .................................... 15

Table 6: Town of Windsor Major Employers..................................................................... 16

Table 7: Town of Windsor and Larkfield-Wikiup Commute Patterns, 2008 ........................... 17

Table 8: Town of Windsor Alternative 2035 Growth Projections ......................................... 20

Table 9: Competitive Shopping Centers .......................................................................... 23

Table 11: Town of Windsor Taxable Sales, 2003-2008 (2008$) ........................................... 32

Table 17: Estimated Actual Sales and Retail Demand ......................................................... 43

Table 18: Estimated Townwide Retail Demand, 2035 ......................................................... 44

Table 20: Competitive Supply of Big Box Retail ................................................................. 50

Table 21: Grocery Store Demand Analysis, 2035 ............................................................... 57

Table 23: Visitor-Generated Tax Receipts by County .......................................................... 62

Table 24: Town of Windsor Hotel Market Indicators, 2010 .................................................. 66

Figure 1: Windsor in Regional Context ............................................................................. 22

Figure 2: Windsor Shopping Areas .................................................................................. 25

Figure 3: Primary and Secondary Trade Areas .................................................................. 28

Figure 4: Town of Windsor Taxable Sales, 2003-2008 (2008$) ........................................... 33

Figure 5: Retail Sales and Estimated Demand .................................................................. 38

Figure 6: Windsor Downtown Area .................................................................................. 52

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Although the current economic environment is an important issue affecting development

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6. A retail capture/leakage analysis comparing local household spending to actual

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7. While retail in Windsor is generally strong, several retail categories—such as

8. Based on population and employment projections in 2035, Townwide retail demand

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Recommended Strategies and Actions

2. Work to attract a niche-market, specialty grocery store that specializes in high-

4. Monitor demand for a hotel/conferencing facility in the Town.

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