Clean Copy HHRA Inhalation Risk To Atmospheric Emissions Report (7 Nov 2022) FINAL

Human Health Risk Assessment:
Inhalation Risk to Atmospheric

Emissions
UPL South Africa (Pty) Ltd – Cornubia Warehouse
Fire and Pollution Event 2021
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UPL South Africa (Pty) Ltd - Cornubia Warehouse
Inhalation Risk to Atmospheric Emissions
REPORT DETAILS
Date Report Issued: 7 November 2022 (Revision 1)
Project Number: A19519
Order Number: UPL South Africa
Assessment Physical Address: 30 Umganu Road, Cornubia, Kwa-Zulu Natal province, South Africa
Client Contact/s: On behalf of Mrs. V King (Metamorphosis Environmental Consultants)
APEX REFERENCES
Department of Employment and Labour AIA

OH 0084-CI 034
Number:
Company Name: Apex Environmental cc
Physical Address: 40 Beechgate Crescent, Southgate Business Park, Umbogintwini, 4126
Postal Address: P.O. Box 2079, Amanzimtoti, 4125
Tel: +27 (0)31 9141004

Contact Details: Fax: +27 (0)31 9142199
www.apexenviro.co.za
Mr Leon Pretorius:
Prof. Gill Nelson:
BSocSc (Hons)
Epidemiologist
Compiled by: Environmental Management
PhD (Occupational Health)
ROH (SAIOH)
gill.nelson@wits.ac.za
leon@apexenviro.co.za
Mr Sean Chester: Mr Kenneth W. Boyers:

Technical Director BSc, BSc Hons, LLB
MPH: Occupational Hygiene ROH (SAIOH)
ROH (SAIOH) kenneth@apexenviro.co.za
sean@apexenviro.co.za
Mr Khalid Mather:
Ms Lekrisha Maharaj:
BSc (Hons) Environmental
BSc Geological Science
Contributors: Science
lekrisha@apexenviro.co.za
khalid@apexenviro.co.za
Dr Tafadzwa Makonese:
Prof. Mary Gulumian:
Air Quality and Environmental
Pr Sci Nat, ATS
Specialist
Human Health Toxicologist
PhD (Energy Studies)
Mary.Gulumian@nwu.ac.za
tafadzwa.makonese@wits.ac.za
Technical Signatory:
Apex Environmental cc, Co Reg: CK 98/44018/23 VAT Reg: No 4330176167

Members: R.W. Randolph MPH Occ.Hyg. (Wits), ROH (SAIOH); S.J. Chester MPH Occ.Hyg. (Wits), ROH (SAIOH); K. Seeram B-Tech
Env.Health ROH (SAIOH)
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TABLE OF CONTENTS
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ................................................................................................ 9

1. INTRODUCTION ................................................................................................ 15
1.1 BACKGROUND .................................................................................................. 15
1.2 AFFECTED AREA ................................................................................................ 17
1.3 CONCEPTUAL SITE MODEL ................................................................................. 18
2. AIM AND OBJECTIVES ....................................................................................... 22
3. METHODOLOGY ............................................................................................. 23
3.1 EXPOSURE PATHWAYS ....................................................................................... 23
3.2 RECEPTOR GROUPS ........................................................................................... 26
3.3 UNCERTAINTY REVIEW ...................................................................................... 27
3.4 HHRA PROCESS ................................................................................................ 28
3.4.1 Hazard identification ...................................................................................... 28
3.4.2 Dose response assessment/ toxicological assessment ........................................ 33
3.4.3 Exposure assessment ..................................................................................... 33
3.4.4 Risk characterisation ...................................................................................... 34
3.5 CONSOLIDATION OF SPECIALIST INFORMATION AND DATA ................................... 35
3.6 REPORTED SYMPTOMS ....................................................................................... 36
4. FINDINGS AND INTERPRETATIONS .................................................................. 37
4.1 INHALATION RISK OF ATMOSPHERIC EMISSIONS ................................................. 37
4.2 HEALTH-RELATED COMPLAINTS .......................................................................... 48
4.3. LIMITATIONS .................................................................................................... 60
5. CONCLUSION................................................................................................. 61
6. RECOMMENDATIONS ..................................................................................... 63
RESOURCES .............................................................................................................. 65
DISCLAIMER ............................................................................................................. 66
CERTIFICATION STATEMENT .................................................................................... 66
REPRODUCTION OF REPORTS ................................................................................... 66
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TABLES
Table 1: Toxicology based on the pollutants of greatest concern as identified

in the Airshed PP AI Report ……………………………………………………………………………………… 29
Table 2: Specialist information ……………………………………………………………………………………………… 34
Table 3: Dates and locations of Skyside SA PM2.5 monitoring ………………………………..…………… 39
Table 4: 24-hour average PM2.5 concentrations at selected locations for which data
were modelled and the three sites where PM was measured, soon after
the fire ……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………… 39
Table 5: Hazard quotients, relative risks and attributable fractions calculated for
selected locations ………………………………………………………………………………………………………45
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FIGURES
Figure 1: UPL warehouse location within the surrounding land use ………………………….………… 16
Figure 2: Conceptual site model, illustrating the source-pathway-receptor linkages
associated with exposure to contaminants released from the UPL fire ………………. 17
Figure 3: Windrose for Durban: 12 – 21 July 2021 ………………………………………….…………………..18
Figure 4: Windrose for Durban: 12 – 31 August 2021 ………………………………………………………….19
Figure 5: Windrose for Durban: 12 - 21 July 2021, overlayed onto the study area,
illustrating the prevailing wind vectors which would have dispersed
atmospheric emissions to the surrounding areas ………………………..………………………. 20
Figures 6 to 11: photographs of the fire that started on 12 July and continued into
the morning of 13 July 2021 …………………………………………………………………………………. 23
Figures 12 to 14: dispersal of the smoke plume towards the north-east of the
Warehouse …………………………………………………………………………………………..………………… 24
Figure 15: Study area layout, depicting the UPL warehouse and surrounding receptor
groups of concern ……………………………………………………………………………………………..….. 25
Figure 16: Representation of exposure and dose effect …………………………………………………….... 32
Figure 17: Exposure assessment approach ……………………………………………………………..……………..33
Figure 18: 750 m radius around the UPL Cornubia warehouse …………………………………..…….… .37
Figure 19: 10 km radius around the UPL Cornubia warehouse ……………………………………….….. .38
Figure 20: Spatial distribution of modelled PM2.5 exposure categories, based on
the pulmonary deposited dose for the 9-years age group, using an
infiltration factor of 65% for the calculation of indoor concentration ………….…….…43
Figure 21: Spatial distribution of hazard quotients (categories), based on the
pulmonary deposited dose for the 9-years age group, using an infiltration
factor of 65% for the calculation of indoor concentration …………………………………… 44
Figure 22: Pie chart representing how community complaints were categorised, and
the proportion of complaints received in each complaint category from
the broader community ……………………………………………………………………………………….. 48
Figure 23: Health-related complaints and symptom overview for the broader
community ……………………………………………………………………………………..…………..……… 49
Figure 24: Pie chart representing the proportion of all received complaints in
relation to health-related complaints from the broader community …………..……. 50
Figure 25: Health-related complaints and symptom overview for the Blackburn
Community ……………………………………………………………………………………..……………..…… 51
Figure 26: Spatial distribution of all complainants in relation to locality of the
UPL warehouse …………………………………………………………………….………………………..…… 53
Figure 27: Sulphur dioxide (SO2) isopleth distribution in relation to complaints and
UPL warehouse
……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………….54
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Figure 28: Particulate matter 2.5 (PM2.5) isopleth distribution in relation to

complaints and UPL warehouse ………………………………………………………………………........... 55
Figure 29: Pesticide deposition / fallout in relation to complaints and UPL
Warehouse …………………………………………………………………………………………………………… 56
Figure 30: Graphic representation of a retrospective cohort study design …….…………………. 63
ATTACHMENTS
1. AIA APPROVAL CERTIFICATE

2. SAIOH CERTIFICATE (OCCUPATIONAL HYGIENIST REGISTRATION)
3. VERDOORN GH. Compounds of concern to be analysed for dissipation and
decomposition trends, and potential risk phases; 17 August 2021.
4. GULUMIAN M. Health Risk Assessment of PM2.5 and its contaminants generated from
the fire incident at the UPL Warehouse: Prediction of their short- and long-term health
effects (Revision 1); 7 November 2022.
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ACRONYMS
AEGL Acute exposure guideline level
AF Attributable fraction
AIR Atmospheric impact report
Br2 Bromine
BW Body weight
ER Excess risk
FADD Field average daily dose
H2S Hydrogen sulphide
H2SO4 Sulphuric acid
HCA Hazardous chemical agent
HCl Hydrochloric acid / hydrogen chloride
HCN Hydrogen cyanide
HF Hydrogen fluoride
HHRA Human health risk assessment
HQ Hazard quotient
IR Inhalation rate
LOAEL Lowest-observed-adverse-effect level
MPPD Multiple-path particle dosimetry
MRL Maximum residue level
NAAQS National Ambient Air Quality Standard
NH3 Ammonia
NO2 Nitrogen dioxide
NOAEL No-observed-adverse-effect level
O3 Ozone
PAH Polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbon
PM Particulate matter
PM2.5 Particulate matter with diameter ≤ 2.5 microns
PM10 Particulate matter with diameter ≤ 10 microns
ppb Parts per billion
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ACRONYMS (Continued…)
ppm Parts per million
RfC Reference concentration
RfD Reference dose
RR Relative risk
SADD Safe average daily dose
SO2 Sulphur dioxide
SVOCs Semi-volatile organic compounds
TB Tracheobronchial
TSP Total suspended particulates
US EPA United States Environmental Protection Agency
VOCs Volatile organic compounds
WHO World Health Organization
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DEFINITIONS
Attributable fraction is the proportion of deaths from a disease, which could have been
Attributable
avoided if the exposure was removed; determines the fraction of an outcome that can be
fraction
attributed to a particular risk factor.
The excess rate of occurrence of a particular health effect associated with a particular
Excess risk
exposure
A source of risk. For example, a hole in the ground is a hazard, which carries with it the
potential to cause injury. The risk associated with this hazard is the product of the
Hazard
likelihood that a person will accidentally fall into the hole and the severity of injury should
the accident take place
The ratio of the potential exposure to a substance to the level at which no non-cancer
health effects are expected from exposure to a contaminant. HQ < 1 indicates that no
Hazard quotient adverse health effects are expected as a result of exposure. The hazard quotient cannot
be translated to a probability that adverse health effects will occur; a hazard quotient
exceeding 1 does not necessarily mean that adverse effects will occur.
Hazardous Any toxic, harmful, corrosive irritant or asphyxiant substance, or a mixture thereof, which
chemical agent can create a hazard to health
Practicable with regard to:
a) the severity and scope of the hazard or risk concerned

Reasonably b) the state of knowledge reasonably available, concerning that hazard or risk, and of
practicable any means of removing or mitigating that hazard or risk
c) the availability and suitability of means to remove or mitigate that hazard or risk;
and
d) the cost of removing or mitigating that hazard or risk in relation to the benefits
deriving therefrom
The ratio of the probability of an event in the exposed group to the probability in the non-
Relative risk
exposed group
The chance of harmful effects to human health or to ecological systems resulting from
Risk
exposure to a hazard (EPA definition).
Involves the identification and detailed evaluation of the hazards of any activity and a
determination of the risk, stated as the probability and severity of injury because of
Risk assessment human exposure to the hazard. Used to characterize the nature and magnitude of health
risks to humans and ecological receptors from contaminants that may be present in the
environment (EPS amended definition).
The process used to make decisions concerning control and minimisation of hazards and
Risk management acceptance of residual risks. Involves the identification, evaluation, selection, and
implementation of the most appropriate action (CDC definition)
A stressor is a chemical or biological agent, environmental condition, external stimulus, or

Stressor
an event seen as causing stress to an organism (humans, in this case).
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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
On 12 and 13 July 2021, a fire occurred at the UPL warehouse located at Umganu Road, Cornubia.
Subsequently, a human health risk assessment (HHRA) was conducted to determine the risk of
inhalation exposure to atmospheric emissions, on instruction from the KwaZulu-Natal
Department of Economic Development, Tourism and Environmental Affairs1.
The primary contaminant of interest after the warehouse fire, in terms of the HHRA, was
particulate matter (PM), which is a mixture of many chemical species rather than a single
pollutant. Particles vary widely in size, shape and chemical composition. Particulate matter can
be emitted directly from sources such as fires, but also forms from chemical reactions of gases
such as sulfur dioxide (SO2) and nitrogen oxides (NOX)2. Particles with a diameter of ≤ 10 μm
(PM10) are inhalable, while those that are ≤ 2.5 μm in diameter (PM 2.5) are respirable, meaning
that they can penetrate deep into the lungs and, potentially, into the bloodstream. Thus, PM2.5
poses the greatest risk to human health3. Other contaminants (including but not limited to
organic vapours, acid gases and unburnt pesticides) have the potential to bind with the PM,
which then acts as a carrier of contaminants. Although all components of PM2.5 do not have
the same toxicity, it is not possible to measure the concentrations of the individual
components or to quantify their health effects separately. For these reasons, the primary
contaminant of interest was PM2.5.
The overall objective of the HHRA was to estimate the likelihood of adverse health events
occurring from exposure to pollutants from the fire – using both modelled (predicted) and
measured concentrations.
The HHRA report was compiled from the following documents:

1. Atmospheric Impact (AI) Report, produced by Airshed Planning Professionals4;
2. Air Monitoring Survey Test Report, produced by Skyside South Africa (Pty) Ltd5; and
3. Health Risk Assessment of PM2.5 and its contaminants, produced by Prof. Mary Gulumian6.
Airshed Planning Professionals (Pty) Ltd (Airshed PP) estimated particulate matter (PM)
concentrations, using mathematical modelling, for the period 13 to 20 Jul 2021, at 101 discrete
receptor locations (the week immediately after the fire)4; all PM was assumed to be PM2.5. The
modelled mean maximum 24-hour PM2.5 concentrations ranged from a low of 3.8 μg/m³ at
Brookdale Primary School to a high of 12 497 μg/m³ in Blackburn Estate.
1
EDTEA S30 Directive PS30/13072021/01; 17 August 2021.
2
https://ww2.arb.ca.gov/resources/inhalable-particulate-matter-and-health
3
https://www.epa.gov/pm-pollution/particulate-matter-pm-basics
4
Airshed Planning Professionals, Atmospheric Impact Report: UPL Cornubia Warehouse Fire. Report Number 21MEC01, Rev
0; Jul 2021.
5
Skyside South Africa (Pty) Ltd. Air monitoring survey: Cornubia fire. Test Report: AS1647_03 R01; 8 Jun 2022.
6
Gulumian M. Health Risk Assessment of PM2.5 and its contaminants generated from the fire incident at the UPL warehouse:
Prediction of their short- and long-term health effects (Revision 1); 7 November 2022.
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For specific contaminants, Airshed PP predicted the concentrations at all 101 locations, the
predicted maximum concentrations during the fire, and the receptor locations where the
predicted concentrations exceeded the Department of Forestry, Fisheries and the Environment
(DFFE) National Ambient Air Quality standards. The pollutants of most concern during the fire
were SO2, NO2, PM2.5, HCN, HCl and Br2, while NH3 and naphthalene were identified during the
smouldering phase. The pesticides and pollutants identified in the fallout phase were AsO3,
Methomyl, Terbufos, Tebuthiuron, Paraquat, Methamidophos, Carbofuran, Dioxins and Furans.
Detailed information is provided in the Airshed PP AI Report.
In addition, Skyside South Africa (Skyside SA) provided measurements of priority pollutants,
including 24-hour average PM2.5 concentrations during two periods: 21 July – 8 September
2021, and 26 August – 21 Oct 2021 - at various sites. The monitoring did not include the
first nine days after the fire started; no measurements were taken during this time for
access and safety reasons.
Concentrations of PM2.5 were measured at three sites in July 2021. From the start of the different
monitoring periods to 5 August 2021, mean concentrations were 47.9 μg/m3 at the East site,
16.5 μg/m3 at the Makro car park, and 21.8 μg/m3 at Reddam House School, as shown in Table
A1. The 24-hour PM2.5 National Ambient Air Quality Standard (NAAQS) is 40 μg/m³.
Measurements at other locations were taken after this initial period.
Table A1. 24-hr average PM2.5 concentrations at selected locations for which data
were modelled and the three sites where PM was measured
Effective measurement PM2.5 concentration (μg/m3)
Location/site
period Mean Range
Blackburn Estate 13/07/21 – 20/07/21 12 496.8* NA
Blackburn 13/07/21 – 20/07/21 7 713.9* NA
Reddam House School 13/07/21 – 20/07/21 4 700.6* NA
East site 21/07/21 – 08/09/21 47.9** 19 – 122
Makro car park 22/07/21 – 26/07/21 16.5** 6 – 38
Reddam House School 28/07/21 – 17/08/21 21.8** 10 - 35
NA: not applicable (modelled data), *daily average predicted maximum concentration, **from 1st day of
monitoring to 5 August 2022
At the start of the monitoring, average PM2.5 concentrations near the warehouse (East site) were
three times the recommended daily limit but they dropped shortly thereafter; by 9 August, there
were very few excess concentrations. Other contaminants identified in the first few days of
monitoring included arsenic, SO2, and volatile organic compounds (VOCs), while others, such as
phosphorus, ammonia and amines, were more persistent. Some contaminants, such as hydrogen
chloride (HCl) and hydrogen cyanide (HCN), were only measured once the fire had been
extinguished and were not found to be at increased concentrations. Details about the methods
and measurements are provided in the comprehensive Skyside SA report.
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Information and data from the health-related complaints submitted to UPL were also utilised for
the HHRA.
Estimates of the occurrence of adverse events comprised non-cancer hazard quotients (HQs),
and relative risks (RRs) and attributable fractions (AFs) for various health outcomes were
calculated by Prof. Mary Gulumian7.
Non-cancer hazard quotients (HQs) indicate whether (and by how much) an exposure
concentration exceeds the reference concentration. In the absence of an established reference
concentration for PM2.5, crude HQs were calculated using the NAAQS value of 40 μg/m³, the
inhalation rate for adult females of 11.3 m3 per day, and average body weight of 70 kg8. The
HQs were > 1 for 53 of the 101 discrete receptor locations, ranging from 1.01 for Verulam
Secondary School to 312.42 for Blackburn Estate. Both Blackburn and Reddam House School
had HQs > 100, based on the modelled PM2.5 values (Table A2). The HQs were recalculated for
the latter two locations, using measured values; both were < 1. HQs were also calculated for the
East site, Makro car park lot and Reddam House School, again using measured values. These
were 1.20, 0.40 and 0.27, respectively.
To estimate the burden of disease, the ‘external’ predicted PM2.5 values were converted to an
internal dose (the amount deposited into the lungs), using the multiple-path particle dosimetry
(MPPD) model. This enabled calculations of the relative and excess risks for short- and long-term
health effects from such exposure, and attributable fractions for each of the health outcomes.
The internal doses were calculated as 0.1816 mg/m3 (41.6%), 0.199 mg/m3 (40.6%) and 0.1753
mg/m3 (52.7%) for the 3-months, 9-years and 21-years ages9, respectively.
The relative risks (RRs) for each health outcome were calculated at two sites where predicted
PM2.5 concentrations were highest, i.e. Blackburn Estate and Reddam House School. Relative
risks were calculated, using 1) the estimated deposited pulmonary fraction of PM2.5 for each of
the three age groups at both locations; 2) the average measured concentrations of PM2.5 of
10.762 μg/m3 at Reddam House Early Learning School (ELS) (measured 26 August – 21 October
2021) and 13.652 μg/m3 at Blackburn community10 (measured 29 Sep – 21 October 2021); and
3) measurements taken from the week after the fire started at the three locations where this
was done (East site, Makro car park and Reddam House School). The attributable fraction was
calculated to estimate the proportion of cases with the same health endpoints, which could have
been avoided if the PM2.5 concentrations remained as they were prior to the fire incident. Selected
results are shown in Table A2.
7
Gulumian M. Health Risk Assessment of PM2.5 and its contaminants generated from the fire incident at the UPL warehouse:
Prediction of their short- and long-term health effects (Revision 1); 7 November 2022.
8
Agency for Toxic Substances and Disease Registry. 2016. Exposure Dose Guidance for Body Weight. Atlanta, GA: U.S.
Department of Health and Human Services, Public Health Service, October 26
9
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0147651318311035
10
The Blackburn and Blackburn Estate discrete receptor locations, where concentrations were predicted, are equivalent to
the ‘Blackburn community’, where PM2.5 concentrations were measured.
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Table A2. Hazard quotients (HQ), relative risks (RR) and attributable fractions (AF)
calculated for selected locations
RR (mortality) AF (mortality)
Effective
Location/site11 HQ Cardio- Cardio-
measurement period Lung cancer Lung cancer
pulmonary pulmonary
Blackburn Estate 13/07/21 – 20/07/21* 312.42 2.111*** 3.058*** 0.526*** 0.673***
Blackburn 13/07/21 – 20/07/21* 192.85 NC NC NC NC
Reddam House School 13/07/21 – 20/07/21* 117.52 1.814*** 2.437*** 0.449*** 0.590***
Blackburn community 29/09/21 – 21/10/21** 0.34 0.952 0.928 -0.051 -0.077
Reddam ELS 26/08/21 – 21/10/21** 0.27 0.896 0.848 -0.116 -0.179
East site 21/07/21 – 08/09/21** 1.20 1.147 1.228 0.128 0.186
Makro car park 22/07/21 – 26/07/21** 0.40 0.972 0.959 -0.029 -0.043
Reddam House School 28/07/21 – 17/08/21** 0.27 0.920 0.882 -0.087 -0.134
*modelled, **measured, ***9-year age group (3-month and 21-year not shown), NC: not calculated,
ELS: Early Learning School
The HQs calculated using the measured PM2.5 concentrations were markedly lower than those
calculated using the modelled concentrations. For example, the HQ for the Blackburn Community
was 0.34, using the measured concentrations, compared to around 200 and 300, using the
modelled concentrations. This was not entirely unexpected, given that the time periods for the
modelled and the measured PM2.5 values were different. Nevertheless, the RRs for both
cardiopulmonary and lung cancer mortality were significant for the East site (using measured
PM2.5 concentrations), and for Blackburn Estate and Reddam House School (using predicted PM2.5
concentrations).
Conclusion
From the assessments and monitoring undertaken by the various specialists, short-term acute
exposure to atmospheric emissions from the UPL Cornubia warehouse fire, through inhalation,
could have been experienced by individuals in communities located within a 10 km radius of the
warehouse, and possibly beyond. Based on the predicted concentrations presented in the Airshed
PP AI Report, and the calculations of the internal dose of deposited fractions of PM 2.5, it is likely
that residents within the Prestondale suburb and immediate surrounds (e.g. Reddam House
School, Gateway Montessori and Learning Centre, and Akeso Umhlanga Psychiatric Hospital),
and the Blackburn Community, which includes ML Sultan Blackburn Primary School, experienced
moderate to severe acute exposure.
While PM concentrations measured months after the fire do not appear to pose any risk for non-
cancer adverse health effects, relative risks for cardio-pulmonary and lung cancer mortality were
increased by a factor of two to three. In addition, particle-bound elements showed substantial
11
the ‘Blackburn community’, where PM2.5 concentrations were measured. The Reddam House School and Reddam ELS,
where concentrations were predicted, are equivalent to the ‘Reddam community’, where PM2.5 concentrations were
measured.
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risks for non-cancer adverse health effects. The elements of concern are aluminium, calcium,
manganese and phosphorous.
The geographic extent of the exposures correlates with the spatial distribution of official health-
related complaints, and observations and prediction models presented in the Airshed PP AI
report.
Recommendations
Further investigations and monitoring are required to ascertain the likelihood of internal exposure
of individuals, and long-term health effects.
1. As exposure to high concentrations of PM2.5 is associated with an increased risks of

respiratory symptoms and disease; increased odds of visual impairment, visually impairing
age-related macular degeneration, and glaucoma12; and increased risks of human skin
diseases, especially atopic dermatitis 13, more specific recommendations, from the health
risk assessment of PM2.5, include:
a. Conducting lung function tests (spirometry) to detect respiratory problems
b. Conducting eye examinations
c. Conducting skin examinations
2. Exposure to the constituent contaminants of PM2.5, including pesticides and metals, also
induce adverse health effects. Based on the modelled PM 2.5 values and the East site
measured PM2.5 values, biological monitoring should be conducted in the Blackburn and
Reddam House School communities for:
a. Liver and renal function
b. Cholinesterase concentrations - as effects monitoring for organophosphates
c. Urinary 1-hydroxypyrene (1-OHP) - a metabolite marker of possible exposure to
polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) by inhalation14, 15 - as identified in the
Airshed PP AI report.
Additionally, the following programmatic actions are recommended:

1. Establish a comprehensive medical surveillance programme (including biological
monitoring) in consultation with the relevant authorities and specialists (toxicologists,
epidemiologists, and medical professionals).
2. Review the biological monitoring results to determine whether a sentinel surveillance
programme is required for long-term tracking and monitoring of exposed residents.
12
https://iovs.arvojournals.org/article.aspx?articleid=2776562#:~:text=In%20single%2Dpollutant%20models%2C%20hi
gher,and%20glaucoma%20is%20biologically%20plausible
13
https://particleandfibretoxicology.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/s12989-020-00366-y
14
https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/25460640/
15
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3. Develop an effective risk communication plan that includes all interested and affected
parties.
The potential for long-term health effects associated with exposure to atmospheric emissions
cannot be ruled out. It is recommended that a retrospective cohort study be conducted to
assess the prevalence of long-term health effects, to include:
1. All individuals living in the exposed communities at the time of the fire, including children
and the elderly
2. The fire fighters and others involved in extinguishing the fire
Significant health-related events will be identified in the retrospective cohort study, after which
a nested case-control study can be conducted. This involves identifying cases (individuals
with the disease of interest) and then selecting healthy controls (individuals without the
disease). Information is collected from both groups related to age, sex, socio-demographic
characteristics, pre-existing health conditions, medical history, family history of health issues,
leisure time activities, occupations, etc.
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1. INTRODUCTION
1.1 Background
In July 2021, civil unrest in the Durban area resulted in a suspected arson attack, which led to
a fire inside the UPL warehouse at 30 Umganu Road, Cornubia on 12 July. Copious amounts of
smoke were produced, over several days, both during the actual fire and during the smouldering
phase, which lasted until the afternoon of 21 July 2021. The fire caused large volumes of
agrochemical products to be incinerated and emitted into the atmosphere. Water-runoff from
the fire suppression system and fire-fighting activities caused chemical products from the
warehouse to be flushed into the downstream environment, including a tributary of the Ohlanga
River.
During the fire, the warehouse roof collapsed and initially rendered the burn zone inaccessible
to fire fighters. The fire burned for three days and smouldered for an additional six days. During
this time, a toxic plume of smoke, containing a complex mixture of chemical compounds such as
unburnt pesticides, gases, and combustible products, was released, primarily onto downwind
communities. The smouldering was extinguished on 21 July 2021, nine days after the fire
started. Malodorous emissions were reported over a vast area for weeks following the
extinguished fire, as clean-up and decontamination activities were undertaken.
The UPL fire needs to be viewed in the context of the civil unrest and looting that occurred during
that week. The fire at the UPL Cornubia warehouse occurred late at night on 12 July and into the
early hours of 13 July 2021. In addition to the warehouse, surrounding commercial areas were
significantly affected, and public security was on high alert. Communities rallied together to form
neighbourhood watches, and security patrols were conducted by civilians throughout the week.
This led to many people of both sexes, young and old, being exposed to the emissions from the
fire.
Monitoring of pollutants near the warehouse could not be done in the early days after the fire
started for a number of reasons, including accessibility to the site and surrounds due to the
voluminous smoke plume, concerns for safety of personnel due to the ongoing looting, and the
need to develop a monitoring plan based on the limited information available, and identifying
locations where equipment would not be tampered with or stolen.
UPL provided a detailed inventory of chemicals stored in the warehouse, which included
pesticides (insecticides, herbicides, fungicides, nematicides, rodenticides, surfactants,
intermediates, fertilisers, and fumigants), and other raw materials. Dr Gerhard Verdoorn from
Griffon Poison Centre provided an overview of the risks, to both human and ecological health,
from exposure to pesticides stored in the warehouse (based on the inventory)16. The Atmospheric
16
Verdoorn GH. Compounds of concern to be analysed for dissipation and decomposition trends, and potential risk phases;
17 August 2021.
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Impact (AI) Report compiled by Airshed PP17 provided a detailed description of the products and
associated combustion products released during the fire.
All the warehouse products were potentially mixed during their release, creating a complex mix
of chemicals, which could - individually, additively and/or synergistically - adversely affect 1)
individuals who may have been exposed to the atmospheric emissions from the fire and/ or the
contaminated runoff, and 2) the natural environment.
A human health risk assessment (HHRA) was subsequently conducted to determine the risk of
inhalation exposure to atmospheric emissions, on instruction from the Environmental Services
Directorate of the KwaZulu-Natal Province Department of Economic Development, Tourism and
Environmental Affairs18.
The primary contaminant of interest after the warehouse fire, in terms of the HHRA, was
particulate matter (PM), which is a mixture of many chemical species, rather than a single
pollutant. Particles vary widely in size, shape and chemical composition. Particulate matter can
be emitted directly from sources such as fires, but also forms from chemical reactions of gases
such as sulfur dioxide (SO2) and nitrogen oxides (NOX)19. Particles with a diameter of ≤ 10 μm
(PM10) are inhalable, while those that are ≤ 2.5 μm in diameter (PM 2.5) are respirable, meaning
that they can penetrate deep into the lungs and, potentially, the bloodstream. Thus, PM 2.5 poses
the greatest risk to human health20. Other contaminants (including but not limited to organic
vapours, acid gases and unburnt pesticides) have the potential to bind with the PM, which then
acts as a carrier of contaminants. Although all components of PM2.5 do not have the same
toxicity, it is not possible to measure the concentrations of the individual components or to
quantify their health effects separately. For these reasons, the primary contaminant of interest
was PM2.5.
The health risk assessment was only possible for contaminants with the same mode of action.
Exposure to the smoke plumes and other airborne chemical agents (gases, vapours and
particulates) could have induced acute and/or chronic adverse health effects, many of which may
have long latency periods. Identifying and interpreting the health status of people who were
exposed to the chemicals released is an ongoing multidisciplinary process.
17
0; Jul 2021.
18
EDTEA S30 Directive PS30/13072021/01; 17 August 2021.
19
https://ww2.arb.ca.gov/resources/inhalable-particulate-matter-and-health
20
https://www.epa.gov/pm-pollution/particulate-matter-pm-basics
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1.2 Affected area
The UPL Cornubia warehouse is located at 30 Umganu Road, Cornubia, approximately 18 km

north of the Durban Central Business District (CBD), 3.5 km northwest of Umhlanga Rocks along
the north coast of KwaZulu-Natal province. The warehouse is located immediately west of the
N2 national road, with Mount Edgecombe located approximately 1.5 km from the warehouse
towards the west, south-west and south. The suburbs of Woodlands, Prestondale and Herrwood
Park are located towards the east and south-east (within a 2.5 km radius), and the Blackburn
community (informal settlement) is located approximately 1.1 km towards the north of the
warehouse and includes both ‘Blackburn’ and ‘Blackburn Estate’. Figure 1 locates the UPL
warehouse within the surrounding areas.
Figure 1: UPL warehouse location within the surrounding land use

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The warehouse is situated in a newly developed industrial area, close to high-density residential
areas, schools, and shopping centres. The residential areas include high-density informal
settlements, schools, hospitals, old age homes, suburban housing estates and complexes,
apartment blocks, and free-standing houses.
1.3 Conceptual site model
A conceptual site model was developed to illustrate the transport, migration and potential health
impacts of exposure to the contaminants from the UPL fire on the surrounding receptors, i.e.
the source-pathway-receptor linkages (Figure 2).
Figure 2: Conceptual site model, illustrating the source-pathway-receptor linkages associated

with exposure to contaminants released from the UPL fire
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Contamination from the warehouse occurred in two forms: 1) atmospheric emissions, and 2)
water contamination. The atmospheric emissions are likely to have the greatest impact on human
health due to the vast geographical region affected and the duration of exposure. Although water
contamination is also a concern for human health, the affected population and the exposure
duration would vary much more widely than the atmospheric emissions. Furthermore, a smaller
proportion of the population would potentially be affected by the water contamination than by
the atmospheric emissions. The potential for exposure via other pathways such as ingestion (of
water, food, etc.) and dermal contact has been assessed in separate HHRA reports.
Atmospheric emissions and contaminants from the smoke and particulate matter through air
pathways are anticipated to have been dispersed by the prevailing winds during this period.
Figures 3 and 4 are wind roses for Durban during the period 12 – 21 July 2021 and 12 July -
31 August 2021, respectively. Figure 5 shows the wind rose for the period 12 – 21 July,
overlayed onto the study area. The dominant and prevailing winds for the KwaZulu-Natal coast
are along a north-easterly / south-westerly vector. Although the predominant winds mostly
occur, localised conditions and periodic on- and off-shore winds would likely have dispersed
airborne contaminants across all directional quadrants. The Airshed PP AI Report presents the
meteorological conditions that persisted during the period in which the fire was burning (including
the smouldering phase), in greater detail.
Figure 3: Windrose for Durban: 12 – 21 July 2021
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Figure 4: Windrose for Durban: 12 – 31 August 2021
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Figure 5: Windrose for Durban: 12 - 21 July 2021, overlayed onto the study area, illustrating
the prevailing wind vectors which would have dispersed atmospheric emissions to the
surrounding areas.
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2. AIM AND OBJECTIVES
As reflected in the scope of work/ terms of reference submitted by Apex Environmental (hereafter
referred to as Apex), the purpose of the HHRA was to determine the likelihood that the fire and
resulting pollutants affected the health of individuals.
The overall objective of the HHRA was to estimate the likelihood of adverse health events
occurring from exposure to pollutants – using both modelled (predicted) and measured
concentrations. Estimates of the occurrence of adverse events, calculated by Prof. Mary
Gulumian, comprised non-cancer hazard quotients (HQs), and relative risks (RRs) and
attributable fractions (AFs) for various health outcomes.
Specific objectives were:

1. To identify pesticides/chemicals and other contaminants released into the environment
from the fire and chemical spill.
2. To map areas in the vicinity of the warehouse fire with high exposures to the pollutants
that were released during the fire.
3. To predict the potential adverse health effects from exposure to the pollutants released.
4. To propose a course of action to identify potential health effects associated with exposure
to pollutants that were released.
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3. METHODOLOGY
The HHRA was aligned with the methodology outlined by the United States Environmental
Protection Agency (US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA)), 21 as stipulated in the EDTEA
S30 Directive (PS30/13072021/01, dated 17 August 2021).
3.1 Exposure pathways
Exposure pathways are the main routes of entry by which a hazardous agent (chemical, physical
or biological) enters the human body. The three main exposure routes for humans are inhalation,
dermal contact or skin absorption, and ingestion. Inhalation is regarded as the primary route of
exposure for most receptors located across a wider geographical region in relation to the locality
of the UPL Cornubia warehouse and is specifically addressed in this report.
It is clear, from the Airshed PP AI Report, that the smoke emitted during the fire would have
contained a complex mixture of contaminants in solid, liquid and gas forms. The dynamics of
the fire (during both the flaming and smouldering phases) would have impacted differently on
the HCAs that were in the warehouse - some being in liquid and others in solid forms. As
described in that report, “… it was assumed that most of the highly flammable materials (e.g.,
solvents) would have been consumed in the fire, i.e., ranging between 85% to 95%, assuming
an average of 90%. The mass fraction of combustible materials (including pesticides) where
assumed to be in the range 55% to 75% (average 65%).”22
It is therefore anticipated that large quantities of HCAs would have been destroyed by the fire
in the first few days, resulting in large volumes of smoke being dispersed over a wide
geographical region. Figures 6 to 11 illustrate the fire during the night of 12 July 2021 and
early morning of 13 July 2021. Figures 12 to 14 depict the dispersal of the smoke plume in a
north-easterly direction on 13 July 2021.
21
https://www.epa.gov/risk/human-health-risk-assessment
22
0; Jul 2021. p ii
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Figures 6 to 11: photographs of the fire that started on 12 July and continued into the
morning of 13 July 2021
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Figures 12 to 14: dispersal of the smoke plume towards the north-east of the warehouse
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3.2 Receptor groups
A desktop assessment of surrounding receptors was initially conducted, using Google Earth, to
visually review the land uses around the Cornubia area. Figure 15 illustrates the locality of the
UPL Cornubia warehouse with selected polygons highlighting surrounding receptors of concern.
Assessment of potential receptors was conducted through spatial identification of the affected
areas, and beyond. Spatial analysis, using situational information, air pollution modelling tools,
and the complaints register was further utilised to visually present overlaying data sets.
Some of the identified receptor groups were:

➢ Broader residential communities (specifically for exposure to atmospheric emissions through
inhalation)
➢ Reddam House School
➢ Blackburn community (informal settlement)
➢ Sugar cane fields (formal and informal harvesters, and consumers of sugar cane)
➢ Umhlanga Lagoon Nature Reserve
➢ Sibaya Coastal Precinct Conservation Trust
➢ Marine harvesters (commercial, subsistence and recreational)
➢ Beach and marine users (recreational / leisure usage)
Figure 15: Study area layout, depicting the UPL warehouse and surrounding receptor groups of concern
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3.3 Uncertainty review
Uncertainty of the occurrences during the two weeks after the start of the fire at the UPL Cornubia
warehouse remains a concern. The factors that would have contributed to the acute exposure
phase created the largest uncertainties. Some of these include:
➢ Inaccessibility of the site and surrounding communities during the fire, due to safety and
logistical reasons, prevented the early and widespread collection of air samples, which
may impact on the validity of the predicted exposure measurements.
➢ Selecting the appropriate sampling methods, equipment and sampling media was
confounded by the incomplete knowledge of the stored chemicals and the complex
nature of the plume.
➢ The airborne chemical cocktail itself creates uncertainty around the way the chemicals
may interact with each other and the potential health effects these mixtures may exert,
especially when considering both additive and synergistic effects.
➢ Exposure characteristics associated with frequency and duration based on geographical
location, situation (indoors / outdoors): microclimate, mask use, and whether windows
and doors were open or closed (including self-implemented controls).
➢ Uncertainty about the socio-economic, demographic and health characteristics of
affected people, particularly vulnerable groups such as infants and children, pregnant
and breast-feeding women, the elderly and immunocompromised individuals.
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3.4 HHRA Process
In alignment with the methodology outlined by the United States Environmental Protection
Agency (US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA)), the steps listed below were followed for
each reporting structure.
1. Hazard identification
2. Dose response assessment/ toxicological assessment
3. Exposure assessment
4. Risk characterisation
3.4.1 Hazard identification
According to the US EPA, hazard identification is the process of determining whether exposure
to a stressor (in this case, HCAs, including pesticides and PM2.5) can cause an increase in the
incidence of specific adverse health effects (e.g. cancer, birth defects, etc.). It also determines
if the adverse health effect is likely to occur in humans. In the case of chemical contaminants,
which include pesticides specific to this assessment, the process includes reviewing the available
literature for the contaminants, and collating evidence to characterise the links between
exposure and adverse health effects. Exposure may generate many different adverse health
effects in a human: diseases, tumours, reproductive defects, death, and others.23 It is therefore
imperative to assess the pesticides and other contaminants released from the fire to inform
hazard identification.
As part of the hazard identification step, additional input and oversight was provided by principal
toxicologist, Prof. Mary Gulumian and epidemiologist, Prof. Gill Nelson.
Toxicological overview
This step of the HHRA was facilitated by the toxicologists (Prof. Mary Gulumian and Dr GH
Verdoorn). Basic toxicological information is provided, regarding identified24 and detected25
HCAs, including pesticides, which may have become airborne during the fire. In terms of
identified contaminants, the Airshed PP AI Report and list of pesticides (of human health concern)
provided by Dr GH Verdoorn26, was used to populate Table 1. Some of the contaminants listed
were detected during active air monitoring by Skyside SA and Apex Environmental.
23
https://www.epa.gov/risk/conducting-human-health-risk-assessment#tab-3
24
0; Jul 2021. p iv, and list provided via email by Dr Gerhard Verdoorn on17 August 2021
25
Apex Environmental. Hazardous Chemical Agents Monitoring and Risk Assessment, July 2021 to December 2021.
26
Verdoorn GH. Compounds of concern to be analysed for dissipation and decomposition trends, and potential risk phases;
17 August 2021
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Toxicology is the study of the adverse effects of chemical, physical, or biological agents on living
organisms and the ecosystem, including the prevention and amelioration of such adverse effects.
The tasks of toxicologists include the identification of poisons/toxic compounds, developing
methodologies for their identification and quantification in biological and environmental media,
studying their mechanisms of action, producing antidotes, and predicting their adverse effects;
thus assisting in the prevention and amelioration of such adverse effects (health risk
assessment). Multiple sources of data may be used to complete each step of the health risk
assessment, including on-site review and investigation, epidemiological investigation,
surveillance, laboratory animal studies, and computer modelling. Health surveillance, as a tool
for qualitative exposure assessment, therefore allows for early identification of ill health due to
exposure to hazardous substances, and helps identify any corrective action needed.
It is essential that the toxicologist identifies the hazardous nature of the materials of concern
(pesticides, organic and inorganic compounds) in the current environment (post event),
therefore:
a. A thorough literature search on the compounds, to summarise their acute toxicity,
neurotoxicity, genotoxicity, carcinogenicity, and metabolites they produce, was
conducted.
b. The exposure routes, target organs, symptoms, half-life, and toxicology of pollutants,
identified to be of greatest concern in the Airshed PP AI Report, are shown in Table 1.
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Table 1: Toxicology based on the pollutants of greatest concern as identified in the Airshed PP AI Report
HAZARDOUS EXPOSURE TARGET ORGANS SYMPTOMS CONTAMINANT HALF-LIFE TOXICOLOGY

CHEMICAL ROUTES
AGENT
Carbon Inhalation Respiratory system Mild to severe In the air in a standard room The current understanding of the pathophysiology
monoxide headaches, weakness, (21% O2), the half-life of CO is of CO poisoning relates its clinical effects to a
(CO) dizziness, nausea, 320 minutes. In 100% O2, the combination of hypoxia/ischemia due to COHgb
fainting, increased half-life is < 90 minutes. With formation and direct CO toxicity at the cellular level.
heartbeat, irregular hyperbaric oxygen at a pressure CO binds to many heme-containing proteins other
heartbeat, loss of of 3 ATA (atmospheres than haemoglobin, including cytochromes,
consciousness and absolute), the half-life of CO is myoglobin, and guanylyl cyclase.
death (at high decreased to 23 minutes.
concentrations).
Sulphur Inhalation, eye Respiratory system Irritation eyes, skin, The atmospheric lifetime of Sulphur dioxide-induced increase in airway
dioxide (SO2) contact mucous membrane; sulphur dioxide is about 10 days. resistance is due to reflex bronchoconstriction.
Irritation nose, throat, An estimated SO2 half-life in Induction of sulphur dioxide-induced broncho-
larynx; cough, airway humans of 15 minutes and a constriction by non-cholinergic mechanisms has
construction, plasma S-sulphonate half-life of been demonstrated in humans. A small but
shortness of breath, 4 and 8 days in rat and monkey, significant reduction in airway responsiveness to a
difficulty breathing, respectively, are reported. sulphur dioxide challenge was noted following
hypoxemia, pulmonary administration of indomethacin, suggesting a minor
oedema. role of prostaglandins. Leukotrienes, which are
released by mast cells, may also contribute to
sulphur dioxide-induced bronchoconstriction.
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Table 1: Toxicology based on the pollutants of greatest concern as identified in the Airshed PP AI Report (Continued…)

CHEMICAL ROUTES
AGENT
Oxides of Inhalation Eyes, skin, irritation eyes, wet Intravascular half-life of NO, as a NO2 is sparingly soluble in water and on inhalation -
nitrogen respiratory system, skin, nose, throat; result of consumption by it diffuses into the lung and slowly hydrolyses to
(NOx) blood, central drowsiness, erythrocytes, as approximately 2 nitrous and nitric acid, causing pulmonary oedema
nervous system unconsciousness; milliseconds. the extravascular and pneumonitis, leading to inflammation of the
methemoglobinemia. half-life of NO will range from bronchioles and pulmonary alveolus, resulting from
0.09 to > 2 s, depending on O2 lipid peroxidation and oxidative stress. Mucous
concentration and thus distance membrane is primarily affected along with type I
from the vessel. N2O is an ozone pneumocyte and the respiratory epithelium. NO2
depleting substance which reacts poisoning may alter macrophage activity and
with O3 in both the troposphere immune function, leading to susceptibility of the
(below 10 000 feet above sea body to a wide range of infections. Overexposure to
level) and the stratosphere the gas may also lead to methemoglobinemia - a
(50 000 – 150 000 feet above disorder characterised by a higher than normal level
sea level). N2O has a long half- of methaemoglobin (metHb, i.e. ferric [Fe3+] rather
life, estimated at 100 to 150 than ferrous [Fe2+] haemoglobin) in the blood.
years. Methemoglobinemia prevents the binding of oxygen
to haemoglobin, causing oxygen depletion that
could lead to severe hypoxia.
Hydrochloric Inhalation, ingestion Eyes, skin, Irritation nose, throat, HCl can react with hydroxyl HCl causes local pH changes and denatures
acid (HCl) (solution), skin respiratory system larynx; cough, radicals to form chloride free proteins. This leads to oedema formation and tissue
and/or eye contact choking; dermatitis; radicals and water; its half-life necrosis. HCl produces a coagulation necrosis
solution: eye, skin time is calculated as 11 days. No characterized by the formation of an eschar.
burns; liquid: accumulation of HCl per se in Ingested HCl may give rise to damage of the
frostbite; in animals: living organisms is expected oesophagus and stomach. Gastric damage may
laryngeal spasm; due to its high solubility and occur secondary to pooling of HCl in the antrum as
pulmonary oedema. dissociation properties. a result of pylorospasm. Patients who survive
ingestion of HCl may develop stricture formation,
gastric atony, and gastric outlet obstruction. When
inhaled, HCl typically deposits in the upper
respiratory tract and causes damage. Concentrated
HCl can penetrate to the level of the bronchioles
and alveoli and cause damage in these regions.
Table 1: Toxicology based on the pollutants of greatest concern as identified in the Airshed PP AI Report (Continued…)

CHEMICAL ROUTES
AGENT
Hydrofluoric Inhalation, skin Eyes, skin, Severely irritating and Gaseous fluoride is eliminated There are two primary mechanisms through which
(HF) acid and/or eye contact respiratory system, burns to eyes, severe from the atmosphere by both dry HF acid causes tissue destruction. The first occurs
central nervous skin burns, irritating to and wet deposition with due to the activity of corrosive hydrogen ions when
system, kidneys, nose, throat and estimated half lives of 14 and 12 using a high concentration of this acid (>50%) and
and liver lungs, shortness of hours, respectively. Fluoride is associated with cutaneous and ocular lesions, as
breath, pulmonary aerosol is eliminated more well as digestive and respiratory mucous membrane
oedema (higher slowly, predominantly by wet damage.
exposures), deposition, with an estimated
headaches, nausea, half life of 50 hours. Dry
vomiting deposited fluoride aerosols have
an estimated half life of 12 days.
The half-life of fluoride in the
body is 12 to 24 hours and is
eliminated primarily through
renal excretion.
Hydrobromic Inhalation, skin Eyes, skin, Irritation to nose, Hypobromous acid degradation HBr is a strong acid and causes burns, and HOBr is
acid (HBr) and/or eye contact respiratory system throat and lungs, rate accelerates with increasing a very potent oxidizing agent.
coughing and concentrations. The decay rate
wheezing, shortness of for a 200-300 ppm solution of
breath, pulmonary available bromine would result in
oedema (from higher a half-life of about 10 days,
exposures), whereas a 4000 ppm solution
headaches, nausea, may only have a half life decay
vomiting rate of only a few hours or less.
Metabolically, bromide ions has a
biologic half-life of about 12
days, is not incorporated into fat
or blood proteins, and none is
extractable from plasma or
haemolyzed blood cells by ether.
3.4.2 Dose response assessment/ toxicological assessment
“A dose-response relationship describes how the likelihood and severity of adverse health effects
(the responses) are related to the amount and condition of exposure to an agent (the dose
provided).”27 Figure 16 illustrates a typical process flow regarding dose-response in relation to
exposure. It should be noted, however, that for the HHRA, a literature review of available data
for the relevant pesticides and HCAs was conducted.
Figure 16: Representation of exposure and dose effect28
3.4.3 Exposure assessment
The US EPA defines exposure assessment as “the process of measuring or estimating the
magnitude, frequency, and duration of human exposure to an agent in the environment or
estimating future exposures for an agent that has not yet been released”29. An exposure
assessment includes some discussion about the size, nature, and types of human populations
exposed to the agent, as well as discussion about the uncertainties in the above information.
Exposure can be measured directly but is more commonly estimated indirectly, using measured
concentrations in the environment, models of chemical transport and fate in the environment,
and estimates of human intake over time.
Different kinds of doses: “Exposure assessment considers both the exposure pathway (the
course an agent takes from its source to the receptor, i.e. the person(s) being contacted) as well
as the exposure route (means of entry of the agent into the body). The exposure route is
generally further described as intake (taken in through a body opening, e.g. during eating,
drinking, or inhalation) or uptake (absorption through tissues, e.g. skin or eye).”29 For the
purposes of this report, inhalation was the focused exposure route.
27
28
Environmental Health Risk Assessment—Guidelines for assessing human health risks from environmental hazards
29
Figure 17 illustrates a typical exposure assessment approach, which guided the process flow
for the HHRA.
Figure 17: Exposure assessment approach30
3.4.4 Risk characterisation
The 2020 Science Policy Council Handbook on Risk Characterisation defines Risk characterization
as “an integral component of the risk assessment process for both ecological and health risks,
i.e. it is the final, integrative step of risk assessment. As defined in the Risk Characterization
Policy …, the risk characterization integrates information from the preceding components of the
risk assessment and synthesizes an overall conclusion about risk that is complete, informative,
and useful for decision makers. A risk characterization conveys the risk assessor’s judgment as
to the nature and existence of (or lack of) human health or ecological risks.” 31
Risk characterisation in this HHRA included one of the major components, viz. risk
estimation.32
"Risk estimation" compares:

• the estimated or measured exposure level for each stressor and community, or
ecosystem of concern; and
• the data on expected effects for that group for the exposure level.
30
https://ww2.health.wa.gov.au/-/media/Files/Corporate/general-documents/Environmental-health/Health-risk-
assesment/Guidelines-for-Assessing-Human-Health.pdf
31
https://www.epa.gov/sites/default/files/2015-10/documents/osp_risk_characterization_handbook_2000.pdf
32
https://www.epa.gov/risk/human-health-risk-assessment
Risk estimation has been addressed by Prof. Gulumian and is included in this report.
The risk characterisation process was conducted in a manner to achieve the principles of
transparency, clarity, consistency, and reasonableness (TCCR).
In an effort to remain proactive and engaged with the larger HHRA process, risk communication
was initiated where appropriate. Throughout the HHRA process, Apex was in communication with
multiple stakeholders, including the relevant authorities, the eThekwini Municipality, community
leadership, civil society, and individuals from the broader community who may have had
pertinent human health information.
3.5 Consolidation of specialist information and data
The HHRA report was compiled from the following documents:

1. Atmospheric Impact (AI) Report, produced by Airshed Planning Professionals33;
2. Air Monitoring Survey Test Report, produced by Skyside South Africa (Pty) Ltd34; and
3. Health Risk Assessment of PM2.5 and its contaminants generated from the Fire Incident
at the UPL warehouse, Prediction of their short- and long-term health effects, produced
by Prof. Mary Gulumian.
Information and data from the various specialists was utilised to inform the HHRA, drawing
particular attention to the atmospheric impact assessment and air dispersion modelling data.
Table 2 lists the specialists and information that was utilised.
Table 2: Specialist information
EXPERTISE / DATA TYPE COMPANY / INFORMATION SOURCE
AIR QUALITY/HEALTH
Air quality impact assessment and dispersion

Airshed Planning Professionals
modelling
Skyside South Africa
Air quality monitoring
Apex Environmental (supplementary)
TOXICOLOGY
Toxins (water and air)/remediation - feeding onto
Dr Gerhard Verdoorn (Griffin Poison Information Centre)
teams above
Toxicology Prof. Mary Gulumian
EPIDEMIOLOGY
Epidemiology input and consultation, study design and Prof. Gill Nelson (University of the Witwatersrand – School
planning of Public Health)
33
0; Jul 2021.
34
The air dispersion modelling data were used to identify receptor groups and areas of concern
regarding exposures and were used to spatially map community complaints to determine
correlation with, and verification of, complainant information. The data also informed the
recommendations for potential interventions.
3.6 Reported symptoms
Two questionnaires were developed as screening tools to obtain information from individuals
within the relevant communities.
1. An online questionnaire, Cornubia Chemical Fire & Spill: Human Health Risk Assessment
Questionnaire, was developed using Microsoft Forms. This tool allowed participants from
the broader communities to complete the form on mobile devices or personal computers,
at their discretion. Printed hardcopies of the questionnaire were also available on
request.
2. The Blackburn Community Human Health Risk Assessment Questionnaire was
administered to individuals living in the Blackburn Community. The interviewer asked
questions in an objective manner, allowing participants to disclose relevant information
without being prompted.
The data obtained from the questionnaires have been incorporated into the various specific HHRA
reports to provide insight into personal exposures and symptoms, and to inform the risk
characterization process.
4. FINDINGS AND INTERPRETATIONS
4.1 Inhalation risk of atmospheric emissions
Airshed Planning Professionals (Pty) Ltd estimated particulate matter (PM)

concentrations, using mathematical modelling, for the period 13 to 20 Jul 2021, at 101
discrete receptor locations (the week immediately after the fire); all PM was assumed to be PM2.5.
The modelled mean maximum 24-hour PM2.5 concentrations ranged from a low of 3.8 μg/m³ at
Brookdale Primary School to a high of 12 497 μg/m³ in Blackburn Estate.
For specific contaminants, Airshed PP provided the predicted concentrations at all 101 locations,
the predicted maximum concentrations during the fire, and the receptor locations where the
predicted concentrations exceeded the Department of Forestry, Fisheries and the Environment
(DFFE) National Ambient Air Quality standards.
As previously mentioned, a range of contaminants was released from the warehouse during the
fire and the smouldering phase. Although extensive air sampling could not be conducted during
and directly after the fire due to security and access issues associated with the riots and looting
that occurred during the week of the fire, the Airshed PP AI Report provides extensive details
regarding the likely contaminants that were released, based upon the warehouse inventory.
In the inhalation impact investigation, the pollutants of most concern that were identified
during the fire were sulphur dioxide (SO2), nitrogen dioxide (NO2), hydrogen cyanide (HCN),
hydrochloric acid (HCl), bromine (Br2) and PM2.5, while ammonia (NH3) and naphthalene (C10H8)
were identified during the smouldering phase. The pesticides and pollutants identified in
the fallout phase were arsenite (AsO3), Methomyl, Terbufos, Tebuthiuron, Paraquat,
Methamidophos, Carbofuran, dioxins and furans. Detailed information is provided in the Airshed
PP AI Report.
Using mathematical modelling, Airshed PP predicted concentrations of contaminants at 101

discrete receptor locations. They mapped the predicted concentrations, depicting plume models
and isopleths, which gives insight into the possible extent (geographical distribution) and
airborne concentration of certain contaminants such as SO 2, NO2, HCl and PM2.5, as well as
possible deposition of AsO3, dioxins and furans, and unburnt pesticides. It was observed that the
predicted model for PM2.5 emissions displayed a remarkably similar trend to that of the SO 2
isopleths.
According to the Airshed PP AI Report, predicted concentrations of the various airborne

hazardous chemical agents would have been highest around the site (UPL warehouse), with
maximum emissions during the first hour of the fire, significantly affecting receptor groups within
a 500 – 750 m radius during the first few days of the fire. Receptors within a 750 m radius
include Reddam House School, Akeso Umhlanga (private psychiatric health facility), and a portion
of the Prestondale suburb (north-western part bordering Reddam House School). Figure 18
shows the 750 m radius around the warehouse. It is noted in the Airshed PP AI Report, however,
that a large area was impacted, beyond 10 km. Figure 19 shows the 10 km radius around the
warehouse.
Because of the acute exposure, Airshed PP assessed risk to human health using the Acute
Exposure Guideline Levels (AEGLs) for Hazardous Substances provided under the authority of
the USA Federal Advisory Committee Act (FACA) P. L. 92-463 of 1972.35 The predicted models
showed that SO2, NO2, HCN and HCl concentrations exceeded the respective AEGLs at some of
the discrete receptor locations.
Figure 18: 750 m radius around the UPL Cornubia warehouse
35
USA Federal Advisory Committee Act (FACA) P. L. 92-463 of 1972.
Figure 19: 10 km radius around the UPL Cornubia warehouse
Air quality monitoring was undertaken by Skyside South Africa (Skyside SA), with the first
samples collected on the 17 July 2021. Skyside SA reported that the plume (during the main
fire) was associated with elevated concentrations of sulphur dioxide (SO2), ammonia, and
naphthalene, but that none of these exceeded the health-based limits. The passive SO2 sampling
conducted on the perimeter of the warehouse indicated relatively low concentrations of SO2
relative to the National Ambient Air Quality Standards (NAAQS). It was noted, however, that the
limitation of this observation was that the monitoring was initiated on the fifth day of the fire.
The Skyside SA report thus focussed on the air quality during the smouldering phase and when
the fire was completely extinguished. It was reported that a distinct odour was continuously
present, and that ammonia, naphthalene and methyl amine were detected at concentrations
above ‘normal urban air’.
Skyside SA provided measurements of priority pollutants, including 24-hour average PM2.5

concentrations during two periods: 21 July – 8 September 2021, and 26 August – 21 Oct 2021
- at various sites (Table 3). The PM2.5 monitoring did not include the first nine days after
the fire started; no measurements were taken during this time for access and safety
reasons. Concentrations of PM2.5 were measured at three sites in July 2021. From the start of
the different monitoring periods to 5 August 2021, mean concentrations were 47.9 μg/m3 at the
East site, 16.5 μg/m3 at the Makro car park, and 21.8 μg/m3 at Reddam House School, as shown
in Table 4. The 24-hour PM2.5 National Ambient Air Quality Standard (NAAQS) is 40 μg/m³.
Measurements at other locations were taken after this initial period.
Table 3: Dates and locations of Skyside SA PM2.5 monitoring
Location/site Measurement period

East site 21/06/21 – 08/09/21*
Makro car park 22/07/21 – 26/07/21*
Reddam House School 28/07/21 – 17/08/21*
East site 06/09/21 – 18/10/21**
Reddam House School 26/08/21 – 21/10/21**
West site 09/09/21 – 14/10/21**
South site 22/09/21 – 21/10/21**
Blackburn community 29/09/21 – 21/10/21**
*from approximately 9 days after the start of the fire
**from ≥ 2 weeks after the start of the fire
Table 4: 24-hour average PM2.5 concentrations at selected locations for which data
were modelled and the three sites where PM was measured, soon after the fire
Effective measurement PM2.5 concentration (μg/m3)

Location/site36
period Mean Range
Blackburn Estate 13/07/21 – 20/07/21 12 496.8* NA
Blackburn 13/07/21 – 20/07/21 7 713.9* NA
Reddam House School 13/07/21 – 20/07/21 4 700.6* NA
East site 21/07/21 – 08/09/21 47.9** 19 – 122
Makro car park 22/07/21 – 26/07/21 16.5** 6 – 38
Reddam House School 28/07/21 – 17/08/21 21.8** 10 - 35
NA: not applicable (modelled data)
*daily average maximum concentration (modelled data), **from 1st day of monitoring to 5 August 2022
At the start of the monitoring, average PM2.5 concentrations near the warehouse (East site) were
three times the recommended daily limit but they dropped shortly thereafter; by 9 August, there
were very few excess concentrations. Other contaminants identified in the first few days of
monitoring included arsenic, SO2, and volatile organic compounds (VOCs), while others, such as
phosphorus, ammonia and amines, were more persistent. Some contaminants, such as
hydrochloric acid (HCl) and hydrogen cyanide (HCN), measured once the fire had been
extinguished, were not found to be at increased concentrations. Details about the methods and
measurements are provided in the comprehensive Skyside SA report.
Exposure to airborne contaminants (atmospheric emissions) through inhalation (all

communities) and the toxicological review and assessment are addressed in a comprehensive
report prepared by the project toxicologist, Prof. Mary Gulumian37. Prof. Gulumian utilised the
data from the reports prepared by Airshed PP38 and Skyside SA39 to conduct her assessment and
calculations. The report includes an assessment of the short- and long-term effects of exposure,
based on the predicted internal (pulmonary) dose.
36
the ‘Blackburn community’, where PM2.5 concentrations were measured.
37
Gulumian M. Health Risk Assessment of PM2.5 and its contaminants generated from the Fire Incident at the UPL
Warehouse, Prediction of their short- and long-term health effects (Revision 1); 7 November 2022.
38
0; Jul 2021.
39
As already mentioned, the limited number of measurements during the fire and directly
thereafter caused the greatest uncertainty about the full range of contaminants; what the
concentrations were each day and at which locations. The Airshed PP AI Report provided the
most comprehensive assumption of what might have occurred. Prof. Gulumian’s findings and
evaluations thereof are therefore based on both the predicted and measured PM2.5 data.
However, it should be noted that the predicted concentrations (during the fire) are an order of
magnitude higher than the measured concentrations, which were collected weeks and even
months later. This difference greatly influenced the interpretation of the health risk assessment.
Estimates of the occurrence of adverse events comprised non-cancer hazard quotients (HQs),
and relative risks (RRs) and attributable fractions (AFs) for various health outcomes were
calculated by Prof. Mary Gulumian.
Hazard quotients
A hazard quotient (HQ) is the ratio of the potential exposure to a substance at a level at which
no non-cancer health effects are expected from exposure to the contaminant. HQ < 1 indicates
that no adverse health effects are expected as a result of exposure. HQ > 1 cannot be translated
to a statistical probability that adverse health effects will occur. HQs are dependent on the
reference concentration or dose selected at which no adverse health effect should occur.
However, since different reference levels are often calculated via different methodologies among
various institutions, they do, by default, not have equal accuracy or precision and are therefore
not based on the same severity of adverse effect. Hence, the level of concern does not increase
linearly as an HQ approaches and exceeds 1.
The HQs were calculated using data from both the Airshed PP AI Report and the air monitoring
survey report by Skyside SA. In the absence of an established reference concentration for PM2.5,
crude HQs were calculated using the South African 24-hour PM2.5 National Ambient Air Quality
Standard (NAAQS) value of 40 μg/m³,40 the inhalation rate for adult females of 11.3 m3 per day,
and average body weight of 70 kg41. The HQs were > 1 for 53 of the 101 discrete receptor
locations, ranging from 1.01 for Verulam Secondary School to 312.42 for Blackburn Estate. Both
Blackburn and Reddam House School had HQs > 100, based on the modelled PM2.5 values
(Table 5). The HQs were recalculated for the latter two locations, using measured values; both
were < 1. HQs were also calculated for the East site, Makro car park lot and Reddam House
School, again using measured values. These were 1.20, 0.40 and 0.27, respectively.
The HQs were calculated using the modelled PM2.5 data were > 1 for 53 of the 101 discrete
receptor locations, indicating that adverse health effects in individuals in these locations could
40
https://www.gov.za/sites/default/files/gcis_document/201409/35463gon486.pdf
41
Agency for Toxic Substances and Disease Registry. 2016. Exposure Dose Guidance for Body Weight. Atlanta, GA: U.S.
Department of Health and Human Services, Public Health Service, October 26
be expected as a result of exposure, although this does not necessarily mean that adverse effects
will occur. The highest HQs were for the Blackburn community and Reddam House School.
Although the inhalation rate is included in the calculations of the HQs, it does not consider the
actual fraction of PM2.5 that is deposited within the respiratory system. Air sampling provides
only a crude estimate of PM2.5 exposure. It is therefore important to determine the internal dose
to be able to associate health effects with those particles that may enter the thorax and penetrate
beyond the ciliated airways. This means that particles must generally be deposited in the alveolar
or pulmonary region to exert their biological effects. Thus, the hazard of inhaled particles
depends on their deposition site in the respiratory tract.
Using the multiple-path particle dosimetry (MPPD) model, it was possible to predict inhaled
PM2.5 particle deposition in the lungs. In recalculating the HQs using the MPPD model, exposure
concentration was set as the predicted daily average maximum for each of the discrete
receptor locations.
The fraction deposited in the lungs differs between age groups. In general, the MPPD software
allows for the selection of multiple age groups, ranging from infants (3 and 28 months),
children (3, 8, 9 and 14 years) and adults (18 and 21 years). In order to provide a
representative selection of each age group, 3 months (for infants), 9 years (for children) and
21 years (for adults), were selected. Previous studies have also distinguished MPPD analyses
according to various age groups42. Infiltration factors and the estimated times spent indoors
and outdoors for each of the three age groups were also taken into account in the calculations.
The HQ calculations are explained in depth in Prof. Gulumian’s report.
The ingress of outside air into homes and other occupied spaces impacts on indoor air quality.
This may have led to accumulation and retention of contaminated air within confined spaces for
extended periods, leading to prolonged exposure, as opposed to being able to reduce or eliminate
exposure from the contaminated outside air when moving indoors. Shrestha et al. (2019) state
that outdoor PM2.5 can infiltrate indoors in buildings even with closed windows that and staying
indoors provides limited protection against outdoor PM.43 Various factors influence the infiltration
of outdoor air pollutants, such as the type of housing. This would have been specifically apparent
for residents within the Blackburn community who live predominantly in informal houses. In
addition, although people living in the same geographic location are similarly affected by outdoor
air pollution43 low-income populations, such as the Blackburn community, are more vulnerable
to the effects of outdoor air pollution due to financial constraints, which compromise their ability
to mitigate or adapt to changing environmental conditions that impact health (including moving
out of the vicinity, away from the pollution, and being able to close doors and windows if they
have them – all of which are self-implemented controls).
42
43
Additional information provided by all of the respondents of the online Cornubia Chemical Fire &
Spill: Human Health Risk Assessment Questionnaire indicated the ineffectiveness of various
control measures employed to reduce infiltration of outside air. These measures included closing
all windows and doors, and sealing doors gaps with wet towels, tape and other barriers.
Respiratory protection was also reported to be worn inside to reduce exposure.
Additional time spent outdoors versus time normally spent outdoors would have also contributed
to increased exposure. Numerous news media and personal accounts posted on social media
platforms reported residents joining various neighbourhood patrols as a result of the civil unrest
and looting that occurred throughout the KZN province, in particular in the greater Durban area,
at the time of the fire. Patrollers, along with other security companies, policing services, fire
fighters and medical response units may have spent prolonged periods outside, compounding
exposure to the contaminants from the fire through inhalation of airborne contaminants. A
resident from the Prestondale Suburb recorded in the submission of the online questionnaire 44
the following statement: “Our family members were on security foot patrols in the suburb for
hours each day and night whilst the fire continued, and were exposed to this smoke for hours at
a time with no protection”.
Therefore, as indoor air quality can be affected by the infiltration of outdoor pollutants, indoor
PM concentrations have the potential to exceed outdoor concentrations45, Prof. Gulumian
recalculated the hazard quotients, using infiltration factors of both 35% (realistic) and 65%
(worst case scenario). As an example of the results, Figure 20 shows the spatial distribution of
predicted PM2.5 exposure categories, based on the pulmonary deposited dose for the 9-years age
group, using an infiltration factor of 65% for the calculation of indoor concentration, while Figure
21 shows the spatial distribution of categories of the recalculated HQs for the same group.
44
Cornubia Chemical Fire & Spill: Human Health Risk Assessment Questionnaire
45
UPL
warehouse
Figure 20: Spatial distribution of modelled PM2.5 exposure categories, based on the pulmonary
deposited dose for the 9-years age group, using an infiltration factor of 65% for the calculation
of indoor concentration
UPL
warehouse
Figure 21: Spatial distribution of hazard quotients (categories), based on the pulmonary
deposited dose for the 9-years age group, using an infiltration factor of 65% for the calculation
of indoor concentration
Taking into account infiltration factors and time spent indoors/outdoors, the HQs calculated from
the MPPD model were much lower than the crude HQs. However, many were still > 1 and the
Blackburn community and Reddam House School remained the discrete receptor locations with
the highest HQs. Other locations with high HQs were Gateway Montessori and Learning Centre,
ML Sultan Blackburn Primary School, Akeso Umhlanga Hospital, Woodlands and Prestondale
communities.
The HQs calculated using the measured PM2.5 concentrations were markedly lower than those
calculated using the modelled concentrations (Table 5). For example, the HQ for the Blackburn
Community was 0.34, using the measured concentrations, compared to around 200 and 300,
using the modelled concentrations. This was not entirely unexpected, given that the time periods
for the modelled and the measured PM2.5 values were different.
Relative risks
The relative risks for each health outcome (the ratio of the probability of an event in the
exposed group to the probability in a non-exposed group) were calculated at two sites where the
predicted PM2.5 concentrations were highest, i.e. Blackburn Estate and Reddam House
School. Relative risks were calculated, using 1) the estimated deposited pulmonary fraction of
PM2.5 for each of the three age groups at both locations; 2) the average measured concentrations
of PM2.5 of 10.762 μg/m3 at Reddam House Early Learning School (ELS) (measured 26 August –
21 October 2021) and 13.652 μg/m3 at Blackburn community (measured 29 Sep – 21 October
2021); and 3) measurements taken from the week after the fire started at the three locations
where this was done (East site, Makro car park and Reddam House School). Excess risk was also
calculated. The attributable fraction was calculated to estimate the proportion of cases with
the same health endpoints, which could have been avoided if the PM2.5 concentrations remained
as they were prior to the fire incident.
The relative risks (RRs) for both cardiopulmonary and lung cancer mortality were significant for
the East site (using measured PM2.5 concentrations), and for Blackburn Estate and Reddam House
School (using predicted PM2.5 concentrations). The estimated RRs, using modelled PM2.5
concentrations, were higher For Blackburn Estate than that for Reddam House School: 2.111
(95% CI 1.232-2.570) and 1.814 (95% CI 1.323-2.570) for cardiopulmonary mortality,
respectively, and 3.058 (95% CI 1.374-4.080) and 2.437 (95% CI 1.374-4.080) for lung cancer
mortality, respectively. Attributable fractions ranged from 45% to 67%. The relative risks for
cardiopulmonary and lung cancer mortality for the East site (where PM2.5 was measured) were
1.147 (95% CI 1.051-1.252) and 1.128 (95% CI 1.079-1.398), respectively. The corresponding
attributable fractions were 13% and 19%. The 95% confidence intervals indicate that these RRs
are significant and that the diseases are a cause for concern. The RRs for other adverse health
outcomes were low. More detailed information can be found in Prof. Gulumian’s report.
Table 5. Hazard quotients, relative risks and attributable fractions calculated for
selected locations
RR (mortality) AF (mortality)
Effective
Location/site46 HQ Cardio- Cardio-
measurement period Lung cancer Lung cancer
pulmonary pulmonary
Blackburn Estate 13/07/21 – 20/07/21* 312.42 2.111*** 3.058*** 0.526*** 0.673***
Blackburn 13/07/21 – 20/07/21* 192.85 NC NC NC NC
Reddam House School 13/07/21 – 20/07/21* 117.52 1.814*** 2.437*** 0.449*** 0.590***
Blackburn community 29/09/21 – 21/10/21** 0.34 0.952 0.928 -0.051 -0.077
Reddam ELS 26/08/21 – 21/10/21** 0.27 0.896 0.848 -0.116 -0.179
East site 21/07/21 – 08/09/21** 1.20 1.147 1.228 0.128 0.186
Makro car park 22/07/21 – 26/07/21** 0.40 0.972 0.959 -0.029 -0.043
Reddam House School 28/07/21 – 17/08/21** 0.27 0.920 0.882 -0.087 -0.134
*modelled, **measured, ***9-year age group (3-month and 21-year not shown), NC: not calculated,
RR: relative risk, AFL: attributable fraction, ELS: Early Learning School
46
the ‘Blackburn community’, where PM2.5 concentrations were measured. The Reddam House School and Reddam ELS, where
concentrations were predicted, are equivalent to the ‘Reddam community’, where PM2.5 concentrations were measured.
Trace elements
Trace elements were also collected on total suspended particle (TSP) filters for the North and
East sites of the warehouse, and corresponding HQs were calculated. The HQs calculated from
the North site (17-23 July 2021) were > 1 for aluminium, calcium, potassium, manganese,
phosphorus and silicon. The results need to be interpreted with caution as only one filter per day
was analysed at each site and the concentrations may not be representative of the true elemental
air concentrations. Aluminium and calcium appear to be non-toxic, but can be associated with
other more toxic compounds, e.g. calcium cyanide. Manganese is a neurotoxin and exposure can
impair neurobehavioral function. Manganese was predicted to be present in the pesticides at a
47
concentration of 361 kmol , although this cannot be used to correctly estimate the mass of
manganese that was emitted from the pesticides during the fire incident. The form of silicon on
the TSP filters is such that it is assumed to be a constituent of the mineralogical composition of
beach particulates.
The HQs calculated from the East site, from measurements collected from PM10 filters (24 Jul
– 28 Aug 2021) were > 1 for the same elements, and chromium in addition; while those
calculated from PM2.5 filters (21 Jul – 10 Aug) were > 1 for the same elements as the North site,
excluding potassium.
As part of the exposure assessment, Apex collected samples to determine possible fallout of
HCAs. These samples included surface swab samples from Reddam House School, at two
residential properties (one in Prestondale and the other in Phoenix) and within the Blackburn
community. Thirty surface swab samples were collected on 26 July 2021 throughout various
facilities and campuses of Reddam House School. Of the 26 swabs sent for pesticide residue
analysis, two samples returned a positive result for the fungicide, Carbendazim. The
concentrations, however, were below the European Union’s Acute reference dose (ARfD) value.
Verification sampling was undertaken on 15 September 2021; Carbendazim was not detected.
Other HCAs originally detected from the sample taken on 26 July included hydrogen fluoride,
hydrochloric acid, nitric acid, and sulfuric acid.
Soil samples were also taken at Reddam House School and within the Blackburn community.
Skyside SA collected several soil samples over a larger geographical area for the analysis of
dioxins and furans. Interpretation of the results are provided in the HHRA report assessing
dermal exposure48. One of the soil samples collected from an open area (previously used as the
soccer field) within the Blackburn Community, showed low concentrations of Tebuthiuron,
confirming the pesticide deposition reported in the Airshed PP AI Report.
In conclusion, from the information provided above, deposition of detected atmospheric

emissions can be attributed to the fire, supporting the fact that the identified contaminants would
47
0; Jul 2021
48
Gulumian M. Risk Assessment from Dermal Exposure; Oct 2022
have been present in and around the Prestondale and Blackburn communities. Detailed
evaluations of the results obtained from the various samples mentioned above are not included
in this report, but are presented in greater detail in the HHRA report describing the assessment
of exposure through dermal contact48.
4.2 Health-related complaints
Health complaints submitted by members of the public through the official UPL Complaints
Procedure were reviewed with respect to the health symptoms reported. The health symptoms
reported from the community complaints were compared with the potential airborne hazardous
chemical agents and related health effects as identified in the Airshed PP AI Report 49 and the
Health Risk Assessment of PM2.5,50 to determine if any correlations could be drawn. This section
details the complaints review.
Background
Apex Environmental was appointed to manage the complaints register, which consolidates all
formal complaints submitted by members of the public directly to UPL through their complaint
procedure. All health-related complaints relating to human exposure to smoke and atmospheric
emissions from the fire were captured and reviewed.
Up until the end of January 2022, 121 official health-related complaints were received from the
broader community, and 39 from the Blackburn community, as either hardcopy submissions, or
electronic forms submitted through the UPL website or directly to the UPL complaints email inbox.
Health symptoms were captured from the complaints reported. The recorded data were
systemically categorised to form a database of health symptom complaints.
Figures 22 and 23 show the categorisation and relative proportions of complaints received from
the broader community.
49
0; Jul 2021
50
Gulumian M. Health Risk Assessment of PM2.5 and its contaminants generated from the Fire Incident at the UPL
Warehouse, Prediction of their short- and long-term health effects (Revision 1); 7 November 2022.
Figure 22: Pie chart representing how community complaints were categorised, and the
proportion of complaints received in each complaint category from the broader community.
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
1
Heart disease
Confidential
1
Raynaud's syndrome
Cardiovascular
1
Resuscitation
Eyes - burning/ pain / watering

33
1
Visual disturbances
Eyes / Vision
3
Gastroenteritis - not specified
9
Nausea
2
Oesophagus - pain/ burning
Gastrointestinal
5
Vomiting
Ill health - non-specified
Miscll.
3
Cognitive - confusion / executive function

Dizziness
7
Fatigue/ Lethargy
Headache
33
Musculoskeletal weakness
Neurological
1
Neuronal complaints - not specified

1
Seizure
1
Tremors
Figure 23: Health-related complaints and symptom overview for the broader community
0
muscle fasciculations
Asthma triggered
13
Breathing difficulty / shortness of breath

33
Chest - burning /pain

7
Chest - pain (non-specified)
Chest - tight
18
Chest - wheezing
Cough
24
Existing respiratory disease exacerbated

Respiratory
2
Laryngitis
Nose - burning / irritation

11
Broader Community - Health-related Complaints (by health symptom description)
Nose Bleeds
1
Phlegm / mucus (blood &/or purulent)

8
Respiratory problems (non-specified)

7
Sinus irritation/ congestion
Throat - burning / irritation

Page 50
23
Skin - irritation/burning
1
Urinary Infection
Skin Urinary
Figures 24 and 25 represent the categorisation and relative proportions of complaints received
from the Blackburn community.
Blackburn Community Complaints Distribution
Environmental Related 4%
Odours (Nuisance)
Related 6%
Health Related
90%
Health Related Nuisance Related (Smoke) Environmental Related
Figure 24: Pie chart representing the proportion of all received complaints in relation to health-
related complaints from the broader community
Blackburn Community - Health-related Complaints (by health symptom description)

25
20
20 18
15 14
10
6 6
5
5 4
3 3 3 3
1 1 1
0
Eyes - burning/ pain / watering
Breathing difficulty / shortness of
Nose Bleeds
Sinus irritation/ congestion

Appetite Loss
Existing respiratory disease
Fever
Novel Chronic Issue
Headache
Skin - irritation/burning
Nausea
Chest - pain (non-specified)
Oesophagus - pain/ burning

Cough
exacerbated
breath
Dermal Eyes/ Vision Gastrointestinal Miscll. Neurological Respiratory Systemic
Figure 25: Health-related complaints and symptom overview for the Blackburn community
Spatial distribution of health-related complaints
In addition to the health symptom data presented, the physical locality of each complaint was
spatially mapped to provide a visual oversight of the geographical distribution of all complaints
received (Figure 26). Due to the reduced visual polygon representing the Blackburn
community in relation to the larger geographical area, a single placemark has been situated
where the Blackburn community is located. It should be noted that this single placemark
represents the full number of complaints (n = 39) received up until the end of January 2022.
The spatial distribution of complaints was further overlayed onto the prediction models for SO2
(Figure 27), PM2.5 (Figure 28) and pesticide deposition (Figure 29), as presented in the
Airshed PP AI Report.
Figure 26: Spatial distribution of all complainants in relation to locality of the UPL
warehouse
Figure 27: Sulphur dioxide (SO2) isopleth distribution in relation to complaints and UPL
warehouse
Figure 28: Particulate matter 2.5 (PM2.5) isopleth distribution in relation to complaints and
UPL warehouse
Figure 29: Pesticide deposition / fallout in relation to complaints and UPL warehouse
Overview of health stmptoms
It is clear, from the spatial distribution of complaints from the broader community relative
to the predicted SO2 and PM2.5 contours, that correlations can be drawn from the reported
health symptoms, with the contaminants that were identified and detected, as described in
the toxicology overview section (section 3.4.1.). This is an overview of the symptoms
associated with exposure to the respective contaminants. As previously stated, exposure to
airborne contaminants from fires not related to the UPL incident, such as burning solid fuel
for heating and cooking, and burning waste, may have attributed to health symptoms
reported.
Correlations between the reported symptoms of complaints and the chemicals associated
with the fire were assessed. Of the 121 complaints submitted, symptoms such as breathing
difficulty/ shortness of breath (33 complainants), burning/ irritating eyes (33 complainants),
headaches (33 complainants), cough (24 complainants), burning/ irritating throat (23
complainants), tight chest (18 complainants), possible triggered asthma (13 complainants)
and nose burning/ irritation (11 complainants), can be attributed to SO2 exposure. Exposure
to SO2 could also result in headaches (33 complainants). Further health symptoms possibly
associated with exposure to SO2 were also reported; however, there were fewer than 10
incidents reported (Figure 23).
In terms of the Blackburn community in relation to the SO2 contours, possible correlations
can be drawn from the reported health symptoms such as chest pain (none-specified, which
may be interpreted as tight or burning chest) (20 complainants), breathing difficulty/
shortness of breath (18 complainants), and cough (14 complainants). Respiratory symptoms
were the predominant health symptoms reported from the Blackburn community. Exposure
to PM2.5 and HCl could likewise result in these symptoms. Again, it is anticipated that
exposure to smoke from fires originating inside the Blackburn community (burning of solid
waste, and fires for cooking and/or and heat) could have compounded health symptoms.
As mentioned, qualitative questionnaires were developed and used to obtain additional

information from individuals in the broader community and the Blackburn community. A link
to the online questionnaire was listed on the UPL Cornubia Fire landing page for anyone who
accessed the site to complete, and was shared via email with each complainant who
submitted an official health-related complaint as part of the complaints investigation process.
Sixteen responses to the online questionnaire were recorded.
Questionnaires were administered in the Blackburn Community; 48 were completed. The

responses to the questions confirmed the information provided in the complaint forms.
Additional information was noted, particularly for dates and times of exposure. All 16 of the
respondents indicated constant and very strong odours when asked to provide details
regarding odorous emissions. Almost all the respondents reported burring eyes/ eye
irritation, coughing, and difficulty breathing when asked to describe their symptoms.
Clusters of symptoms were evident from the review of the spatial distribution of complaints,
particularly in the Prestondale and Mount Edgecombe suburbs, representing the broader
community, with an additional cluster in the Blackburn community.
As indicated by the predicted concentrations and modelling data in the Airshed PP AI Report,
residents within the Prestondale suburb, which includes Reddam House School and Akeso
Umhlanga (private psychiatric health facility), would have been exposed to continuous
atmospheric emissions during the fire and smouldering phases, in the absence of most wind
conditions, due to their proximity to the warehouse. Residents within the Mount Edgecombe
suburb would have been exposed primarily during north-easterly wind conditions, whilst
residents from the Blackburn community would have been exposed during south-westerly
wind conditions. The meteorological conditions are described in detail in the Airshed PP AI
Report, and include wind conditions on each day.
In addition to the atmospheric emissions generated from the UPL fire, several other emissions
would likely have been present in the atmosphere during the period 12 to 21 July 2021,
thereby compounding possible exposures to atmospheric emissions. These include, but are
not limited to:
a) Emissions from other fires emanating from industries, warehouses, and commercial
premises
b) Emissions from vehicles and trucks
c) Emissions from solid waste set alight in and around the greater Durban area
d) Emissions from fires made to burn solid waste, particularly evident within the Blackburn
community. This aspect may be considered as a regular outside occurrence.
e) Emissions from fires made for cooking and heating, also particularly evident within the
Blackburn community. This is especially prevalent in winter months as fires are made
both indoors and outside to provide heat. This could also be considered as a regular
occurrence.
Primary healthcare issues - in particular, exposure to SARS-CoV-2 and associated symptoms

- were not considered in this risk assessment. Exposure to these external factors may have
influenced reported health effects that were attributed to the UPL fire. These aspects are
therefore regarded as uncertainties in this risk assessment.
Last, the risk characterisation process was conducted in such a manner as to achieve the
principles of transparency, clarity, consistency, and reasonableness (TCCR). In order to
ensure that the TTCR principles were facilitated, there was participation with the relevant
authorities, regular engagement and discussions with a designated health cohort was
conducted, and an openness and acceptance regarding input was communicated throughout
the process.
4.3. Limitations
Modelled PM2.5 concentrations spanned the week immediately after the fire incident (13 – 20
Jul 2021) while PM2.5 and PM10 monitoring started a week later, but only at three locations.
The modelled concentrations (immediate emissions) were orders of magnitude higher than
the later measured concentrations, which greatly influenced the health risk assessment. As
expected, the PM concentrations decreased from the time of the incident to months
thereafter.
Variation between the measured airborne concentrations from Skyside SA and the modelled
airborne concentrations presented in the Airshed PP AI Report indicates that the uncertainty
of actual conditions existing throughout the fire and post-fire periods is the greatest
limitation of this assessment. Furthermore, the riot and looting events that occurred during
the week of the fire and thereafter created unusual circumstances where more residents
were perhaps at home for extended periods, as opposed to normally being at work, school
or away for leisure, etc.
The calculated relative risks for adverse health effects were, not surprisingly, markedly
different when using the predicted concentrations, which represented the period immediately
after the fire, and the actual measured values months thereafter. A more accurate
assessment would have been possible if measurements been taken in the days immediately
following the incident, in more locations.
Although age-groups, per se, were not targeted during this HHRA, children, the elderly and
vulnerable groups were somewhat represented, as discrete receptor locations included
schools (preschools, primary and secondary schools), a retirement home, hospitals
(including Akeso Umhlanga Hospital), and informal communities. In addition, HQs and
burden of disease were calculated for 3-month, 9-year and 21-year ages, according to
standard methods.
Calculations for risk could not be conducted by age group, sex, genetic predisposition, and
pre-existing health conditions.
5. CONCLUSION
Although detailed toxicological evaluations of contaminants that bind to PM were not

considered due to the limitations already mentioned, evaluations and interpretations in both
the Airshed PP AI Report and Prof. Gulumian’s report indicate that acute health effects would
likely have been experienced from exposure to the emissions from the fire. Exposure to
soluble particles, particularly for acidic contaminants such as SO 2, NO2, H2SO4, HCl, HCN,
HF and Cl2, would have been highly irritating, affecting the eyes, skin, and respiratory system
(nose, throat, and lungs). The uncertainty of the actual concentrations makes it difficult to
quantify the risk, although it is anticipated that moderate to severe acute exposure may
have occurred, particularly for individuals who were near the fire. Toxicological information
about most of the contaminants listed indicates that acute symptoms would improve and
dissipate once exposure ceased. “Soluble particles, especially acidic particles such as
sulphuric acid, would be expected to have mainly short-term acute effects if exposure is
episodic.”51 Exposure to airborne contaminants from the UPL fire can be deemed as episodic.
Hext et al. (1999) say that single or repeated exposure to acidic aerosols may affect
mucociliary clearance51. Although the changes observed are not of concern to a normal
healthy person, they may exacerbate existing respiratory problems in health impaired
individuals.
From the assessments and monitoring undertaken by the various specialists, short-term
acute exposure to atmospheric emissions from the UPL Cornubia warehouse fire, through
inhalation, could have been experienced by individuals in communities located within a 10
km radius of the warehouse, and possibly beyond. Based on the predicted concentrations
presented in the Airshed PP AI report, and the calculations of the internal dose of deposited
fractions of PM2.5, it is likely that residents within the Prestondale suburb and immediate
surrounds (e.g. Reddam House School, Gateway Montessori and Learning Centre, and Akeso
Umhlanga Psychiatric Hospital), and the Blackburn community, which includes ML Sultan
Blackburn Primary School, experienced moderate to severe acute exposure.
While PM concentrations measured months after the fire do not appear to pose any risk for
non-cancer adverse health effects, relative risks for cardio-pulmonary and lung cancer
mortality were increased by a factor of two to three. In addition, particle-bound elements
showed substantial risks for non-cancer adverse health effects. The elements of concern are
aluminium, calcium, manganese and phosphorous.
The geographic extent of the exposures correlates with the spatial distribution of official
health-related complaints, and observations and prediction models presented in the Airshed
PP AI report.
51
https://www.concawe.eu/wp-content/uploads/2017/01/2002-00226-01-e.pdf
It is assumed that the dispersion and dilution of airborne contaminant concentrations, as

they are transported further away from the fire, would have resulted in more nuisance-type
effects, as opposed to aggravated health effects associated with higher concentrations.
Several factors of uncertainty do, however, influence this statement, particularly for
individuals with pre-existing medical conditions. Such individuals may have been adversely
affected irrespective of the distance from the fire, or concentration of the airborne
contaminants, as low concentrations may have triggered or exacerbated health conditions.
It is therefore inconclusive to confine the extent or geographical area of concern on the basis
of concentration of the emissions only.
Exposure to atmospheric emissions generated from the UPL fire is considered to have been
episodic and acute. The significance of the acute exposure would have been greater in some
areas than others and, therefore, the likelihood of long-term health effects occurring within
the communities of concern is considered possible, as highlighted in both the Airshed PP AI
Report and the HHRA report compiled by Prof. Gulumian.
6. RECOMMENDATIONS
Due to the uncertainty of the exact exposure for different ages and sexes, genetic
predispositions, and pre-existing health conditions, the possible long-term health effects
associated with exposure to atmospheric emissions that occurred over the period of 12 to
21 July should not be ruled out, and require further investigation and monitoring.
The recommendations provided in this report are intended to serve as a guide to provide
some idea of the investigations, follow-ups, communications, management aspects and
control measures that should be implemented in the assessed areas. These
recommendations are based on observations and data from both Apex and UPL appointed
specialists; reported health effects, toxicity, physical and chemical characteristics, work
procedures, applicable legislation, and existing controls.
Further investigations and monitoring are required to ascertain the likelihood of internal
exposure of individuals.
1. As exposure to high concentrations of PM2.5 is associated with an increased risks of

respiratory symptoms and disease; increased odds of visual impairment, visually
impairing age-related macular degeneration, and glaucoma52; and increased risks of
human skin diseases, especially atopic dermatitis 53
, more specific recommendations,
from the health risk assessment of PM2.5, include:
a. Conducting lung function tests (spirometry) to detect respiratory problems
b. Conducting eye examinations
c. Conducting skin examinations
2. Exposure to the constituent contaminants of PM2.5, including pesticides and metals,

also induce adverse health effects. Based on the modelled PM2.5 values and the East
site measured PM2.5 values, biological monitoring should be conducted in the Blackburn
and Reddam House School communities for:
a. Liver and renal function
b. Cholinesterase levels - as effects monitoring for organophosphates
c. Urinary 1-hydroxypyrene (1-OHP) - a metabolite marker of possible exposure
to polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) by inhalation 54,55 - as identified in
the Airshed PP AI report.
52
https://iovs.arvojournals.org/article.aspx?articleid=2776562#:~:text=In%20single%2Dpollutant%20models%2C
%20higher,and%20glaucoma%20is%20biologically%20plausible
53
https://particleandfibretoxicology.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/s12989-020-00366-y
54
https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/25460640/ in PM2.5 for adult exposure to the petrochemical complex emissions.
Environmental Research. 2015;136:219-226.
55
Additionally, the following programmatic actions are recommended:

1. Establish a comprehensive medical surveillance programme (including biological
monitoring) in consultation with the relevant authorities and specialists
(toxicologists, epidemiologists, and medical professionals).
2. Review the biological monitoring results to determine whether a sentinel
surveillance programme is required for long-term tracking and monitoring of
exposed residents.
3. Develop an effective risk communication plan that includes all interested and
affected parties.
The potential for long-term health effects associated with exposure to atmospheric
emissions cannot be ruled out. It is recommended that a retrospective cohort study be
conducted to assess the prevalence of long-term health effects, to include:
1. All individuals living in the exposed communities at the time of the fire, including
children and the elderly
2. The fire fighters and others involved in extinguishing the fire
A retrospective cohort study entails the inclusion of two groups (one exposed and one not
exposed), which are retrospectively identified and then compared in terms of health
outcomes (Figure 30). Such a study will allow for the identification of risk factors (and
confounders) associated with long term health effects, such as cardiopulmonary disease,
lung cancer, asthma, chronic obstructive airways disease, etc. Risk factors may include
older/younger age, and the existence of pre-existing cardiopulmonary and other chronic
diseases.
Figure 18: Graphic representation of a retrospective cohort study design56
56
https://www.sciencedirect.com/topics/medicine-and-dentistry/retrospective-cohort-study
Significant health-related events will be identified in the retrospective cohort study, after
which a nested case-control study57 can be conducted. This involves identifying cases
(individuals with the disease of interest) and then selecting healthy controls (individuals
without the disease). Information is collected from both groups related to age, sex, socio-
demographic characteristics, pre-existing health conditions, medical history, family history
of health issues, leisure time activities, occupations, etc.
Effective and regular risk communication should be facilitated to interested and affected
parties, ensuring that the full range of stakeholders are included and informed.
RESOURCES
➢ Marine and Estuary Research (MER), UPL South Africa Fire and Chemical Spill: Estuary
and Marine Assessment Report, ver. 1.3. MER REPORT #12/21
➢ https://www.epa.gov/risk/human-health-risk-assessment
➢ https://www.epa.gov/ecobox/epa-ecobox-tools-exposure-pathways
➢ https://www.epa.gov/risk/conducting-human-health-risk-assessment#tab-3
➢ https://www.epa.gov/risk/conducting-human-health-risk-assessment#tab-4
➢ https://doi.org/10.1097/JOM.0b013e31821b1e45
➢ https://www.epa.gov/sites/default/files/2015-
10/documents/osp_risk_characterization_handbook_2000.pdf
➢ https://www.cdc.gov/nceh/casper/sampling-methodology.htm
➢ https://pubs.rsc.org/en/content/articlelanding/2017/ew/c5ew00294j
➢ https://ehp.niehs.nih.gov/doi/pdf/10.1289/ehp.122-A214
➢ https://web.doh.state.nj.us/rtkhsfs/factsheets.aspx
➢ https://nap.nationalacademies.org/read/1544/chapter/1
➢ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4576833/
➢ https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/31546585/
57
http://www.medicine.mcgill.ca/epidemiology/hanley/c681/clayton_hills/c_h_33_nested_cc.PDF
DISCLAIMER
Interpretations, opinions, results, and recommendations contained in this report are a true
reflection of the conditions observed and assessed during the assessment period. Apex
Environmental makes no warranty or guarantee as to the absolute correctness and suitability
of the contents of this report. The final responsibility lies with the client to ensure the
correctness and suitability of the content. Apex Environmental shall not in any way be liable
for any loss suffered by the client because of any observations mentioned, interpretations
given, and recommendations made. The information and recommendations provided in this
report have been made in good faith with professional integrity.
All information obtained by Apex Environmental shall be treated as private and confidential
as prescribed by the Protection of Personal Information Act (Act No. 4 of 2013). Information
obtained through onsite observations and monitoring will not be disclosed by Apex
Environmental unless required by law and authorized by contractual commitments.
CERTIFICATION STATEMENT
This is to certify that the attached report has been compiled and issued under the authority,
direction and the responsibility of an Apex Occupational Hygienist who is also a Technical
Signatory. Details of recommended requirements, specifications and conditions that are to
be contained in written reports are issued in terms of SANS ISO/IEC 17020 “Conformity
assessment – Requirements for the operation of various types of bodies performing
inspections”.
REPRODUCTION OF REPORTS
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The Southern African Institute for
Occupational Hygiene
This is to certify that

Sean Chester

ID Number: 6905135196081

Has satisfied the requirements of
the Constitution of the Institute
and on recommendation of the Professional Certification Committee
is registered as an

Occupational Hygienist (OH)

Member Number: 0161
Valid until: 31 January 2023

Elsie Cornelia Peens
Chairperson: Professional Certification Committee

Member ID: 33914528
Certificate ID: 33914528-23315
Issued by the Southern African Institute for Occupational
Hygiene
SAQA Professional Body ID: 844

COMPOUNDS OF CONCERN TO BE ANALYSED
FOR DISSIPATION AND DECOMPOSITION
TRENDS, AND POTENTIAL RISKS PHRASES
Compiled by Dr Gerhard H Verdoorn
17-Aug-21
Key to colour codes of compounds
Compounds of significant concern in terms of human toxicology, eco-

toxicology or very long half-life; not all such substances necessarily pose
Red a risk due to potential irreversible soil adsorption
Compounds of selective toxicological concern such as impact on plant
Blue life or long half-life
Compounds of very selective toxicological concern or long half-life that
Brown may act as markers to track metabolism and dissipation
Compounds that probably do not pose any risk due to rapid
Green decomposition but that warrant investigation
Nr Compounds of concern Analysis required Rate of metabolism in Risk Risk

animals and soil Human Human
environmental fate DT50 Acute Chronic
1 Acetamiprid Only once qual & quan >90% metabolised Low Low
DT50 = 5.64 - 67 days Very high bee toxicity, good indicator of metabolic breakdown
2 Acetochlor Only once qual Rapidly excreted Low to medium Very low
DT50 = 8 - 18 days Soil applied herbicides, will damage germinating seedlings; may be toxic to shellfish and crustaceans
3 Amicarbazone Twice qual and quan Rapidly metabolised Low to medium Very low
DT50 = 50 days High risk for dicotyledon plants for about 6 to 10 weeks
4 Arsenic elemental Long term qual and quan Infinite DT50 High to very high Very high
5 Arsenic as MSMA/MAA Long term qual and quan DT50 = 88 days Medium Medium
Elemental arsenic and arsenic oxides are much more toxic than MSMA or MAA; if
MSMA and MAA oxidise to arsenic oxide, the environment in which it occurs
becomes much higher risk.
This is main risk substances in all the risk areas in and around Cornubia
6 Atrazine Only once qual and quan Rapidly metabolised Low Very low
DT50 = 35 to 80 days May be a risk to sub-aquatic and terrestrial plants for up to 3 months
7 Bromoxynil Only once qual and quan Quick metabolism Unlikely to be detected in meaningful concentrations
DT50 <1 day Good marker to check for rate of dissipation and chemical metabolism of pesticides
8 Carbofuran Not required, metabol. 72% eliminated after 24 hrs High Medium
Unlikely to be detected in meaningful concentrations because small quantity was in warehouse and
DT50 = 30 to 60 days rapidly degraded by remedial protocols
9 Clothianidin Long term qual and quan Very limited metabolism Low to medium Low
DT50 = 143 - 1001 days Very long half-life in soil, concern is for aquatic invertebrates
10 Chlorothalonil Not required, metabol. Oxidised to hydroxy comp. Very low Very low
May analyse for metabolites DT50 = 38 days Medium toxicity for aquasphere organisms
11 Chlorpyrifos Only once, metab. Rapidly metabolised Medium Medium
DT50 = 33-56 days Toxic to aquasphere organisms and birds
12 Clomazone Only once qual and quan Rapid metabolism Low Very low
DT50 = 30 - 153 days Long half-life and impact on plants
13 Cu (elemental) Long term qual and quan Infinite DT50 Low Low
High concentrations may cause lesions in fish and other organisms, and result in acute toxic
responses
14 Diquat Not required, too little Quick excretion Medium High (bio-accum)
Unlikely to be of any significance due to it being very strongly adsorbed by soil clay particles, even
Should be totally soil bound DT50 = 0.4 - 21, free diquat thought it is toxic; it is thus not available to cause harm
DT50 = 1.2 - 41 years, soil adsorbed diquat
15 Diuron Long term qual and quan Quick metabolism Low Very low
Long half-life and high impact on monocotyledons; good marker to track dissipation and chemical
DT50 = 90 - 180 days decomposition
16 Bromacil Not required, too little Slow metabolism Low Low
Unlikely to be detected Very long half-life of years Can be active against woody plants and broadleaved crops for up to a decade
17 Fosetyl-Aluminium Not required, metabol. Slowly but complete metab. Low Low
Unlikely to be detected DT50 = 14 - 40 hours No real concern but will deposit aluminium hydroxide
18 Glyphosate Only once qual Rapidly excreted unchanged Low Very low
DT50 < 91 days No real concern, but good marker to track in terms of dissipation and chemical decomposition
19 Halosulfuron Not required, too little Rapidly eliminated Low Low
Unlikely to be detected DT50 < 18 days No real concern apart from very potent herbicide against broad-leaved plants and sedges
20 Imazapyr Not required, too little Rapidly excreted unchanged Low Low
Unlikely to be detected DT50 = 24 - 143 days No real concern but very active at low dosages against most plants
21 Imidacloprid Long term qual and quan Rapidly excreted unchanged Medium Very low
Long half-life when taken up systemically by plants and very toxic to bees; good substance to track in
DT50 = 4 hours flowering plants
22 Lambda-cyhalothrin Not required, metabol. Rapidly eliminated Medium Medium
Highly unlikely to have survived fire and harsh remediation protocols but very toxic to aquatic
DT50 = 6 - 40 days organisms
23 Alpha-cypermethrin Not required, metabol. Slowly eliminated Medium Medium
Highly unlikely to have survived fire and harsh remediation protocols but very toxic to aquatic
DT50 = 91 days organisms
24 Mancozeb Not required, metabol. Rapidly excreted Very low Very low
DT50 <1 day Will deposit manganese, manganese oxides and zinc oxides
25 Maneb Not required, metabol. Rapidly excreted Very low Very low
DT50 = 25 days Will deposit manganese and manganese oxides
26 Manganese elemental Short term qual and quan Infinite DT50 Low Very low
27 MCPA Only once qual Rapidly excreted Medium Low
DT50 = 90 - 120 days Soil borne herbicide with relatively long half-life; good compounds as a marker to track metabolism
28 Mesotrione Only once qual Rapidly excreted unchanged Very low Very low
DT50 = 3.2 - 50 days No real concern but soil borne herbicide with impact on monocotyledons and dicotyledons
29 Methamidophos Not required, metabol. Slow metabolism Toxic to all organisms!
Unlikely to be detected DT50 = 2 days Highly unlikely to have survived fire and harsh remediation protocols but very toxic to all organisms
30 Methomyl Not required, metabol. Rapidly metabolised Toxic to all organisms!
Unlikely to be detected DT50 = 4 - 8 days Highly unlikely to have survived fire and harsh remediation protocols but very toxic to all organisms
31 Metolachlor Long term qual and quan Rapidly oxidised Low Very low
No real concerns but good substances to use a marker to track dissipation and chemical
DT50 = 20 days decomposition
32 S-metolachlor Long term qual and quan Rapidly oxidised Low Very low
No real concerns but good substances to use a marker to track dissipation and chemical
DT50 = 30 days decomposition
33 Paraquat Not required, too little Rapid elimination via faeces Very high Very high
Should be totally soil bound DT50 < 7 days, free paraquat
Very unlikely to find free paraquat in water bodies due to strong and irreversible binding to clay
DT50 < 7 - 20 years, soil adsorbed paraquat particles
34 Pendimethalin Not required Slow oxidation
DT50 < 90 - 120 days Relatively long half-life and good substances to track dissipation and chemical decomposition
35 Picloram Long term qual and quan Rapidly excreted unchanged Very low Very low
Very mobile in soil and ground water and may move very off target site to cause serious damage to
DT50 < 30 - 90 days woody plants
36 Quizalofop Only once qual Rapid metabolism Low Low
DT50 < 1 day No concern but track once for sense of dissipation
37 Tebuconazole Only once qual Full elimination in 3 days Very low Very low
DT50 28 - 42 days No concern but track once for sense of dissipation
38 Tebuthiuron Long term qual and quan Slow metabolism High to medium Very low
Remains active in soil for prolonged periods and may move very off target site to cause serious
DT50 < 21 - 176 days damage to woody plants
39 Terbufos Only once qual and quan Rapid oxidation Very high High
Unlikely to be present in concentration of concern, but needs to be traced for dissipation and
DT50 = 9 - 27 days chemical decomposition
40 Terbuthylazine Qual and quan Rapid elimination Medium Medium
DT50 = 6.5 - 149 days Long half-life and tough on grass species
41 Thiamethoxam Qual and quan Slow metabolism Refer to the data set on clothianidin because thiamethoxam metabolises to clothianidin
DT50 = 7 - 109 days
42 Triclopyr Only 2X qual and quan Excreted slowly unchanged Medium Medium
DT50 = 50 - 90 days No real concern but will impact on woody plants if in direct contact
43 Trifluralin Only once qual Quick elimination unchang Very low Very low
DT50 = 116 -201 days Very long hellfire and needs to be tracked for dissipation and chemical decomposition
Solvents and other hydrocarbons: analysis need to be done for all of these main
compounds. Analysis will also detect and identify alkylated substances related to
these ones
1 Benzene Long term qual and quan
2 Toluene Long term qual and quan
3 Xylenes Long term qual and quan
4 Chlorobenzene Long term qual and quan
5 Naphthalene Long term qual and quan
NOTES
Compounds were selected based on the (1) volumes stored at the warehouse, (2)
their toxicity for any one of the listed organisms, (3) their half-life and (4) to be used
1 to gauge the general chemical breakdown of the pesticides
2 Qual = qualitative, quan = quantitative
Compounds listed for once off qualitative analysis were chosen because they should
3 be close to fully metabolised by now
Health Risk Assessment of
PM2.5
and its contaminants generated
from the
Fire Incident at the UPL Warehouse
Prediction of their short- and long-term health effects
A report prepared
by
Professor Mary Gulumian
Revision 1
7 November 2022
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
Airshed Planning Professionals (Pty) Ltd (Burger et al 2021) has provided the predicted concentrations
of air contaminants resulting from a fire at the Warehouse located at Umganu Road, Cornubia. The fire
occurred between 12 and 13 Jul 2021 whilst the results of the modelled particulate matter (PM) levels
spanned the period from 13 to 20 Jul 2021 immediately after the fire incident. A few measurements were
collected the week after the fire started, but most most were collected months later (end Aug/Sep – end
Oct 2021). Using the data provided, the present health risk assessment to human subjects was conducted
on a number of identified air contaminants but mainly concentrating on PM 2.5 for the following important
considerations:
1. During a fire, PM emissions specifically PM2.5 is of major concern (Griffiths et al. 2018; Corringham
et al., 2021; Haikerwal et al., 2015). It was essential to convert the external predicted values to
internal deposited dose using the Multiple-Path Particle Dosimetry (MPPD) model to enable
calculations of both the overall risk as well as the relative risk for short- and long-term health effects
from such exposure.
2. As the PMs can be made up of different components depending on the source of fire (Fujii et al
2001; Fine et al., 2001; Wakefield 2010), exposure through inhalation to these contaminants would
have been through PMs. As the PMs can be made up of different components depending on the
source of fire (Fujii et al 2001; Fine et al., 2001; Wakefield 2010), exposure through inhalation to
these contaminants would have been through PMs. In addition, both primary and secondary particles
should be taken into consideration. The former is defined as those released during combustion and
the latter those formed from precursors by atmospheric processes, examples of which include
nitrates and sulphates, which are major components of the secondary inorganic aerosols (COMEAP,
2009).
3. The oxidation of sulfur dioxide (SO2) to sulphuric acid in the gas phase and with subsequent internal
mixing of the sulphuric acid, and chemical reactions, will form sulphate salts and therefore may
change the properties of the particle. It is, however, difficult to quantify contributors to PM2.5 for the
fact that many of the products formed can fluctuate between the particulate and vapour states
depending on conditions. Since sulphates are usually associated with other components of the PM 2.5
mix, interactions are feasible. For example, it has been suggested that sulphate may play a role in
mobilising transition metals from their oxide forms and in interacting with metals to drive the
production of reactive oxidant species (Ghio et al, 1999).
4. The recommendation was therefore that PM2.5 should be used as the metric for quantification without
consideration of an adjustment for that part of the fine particulate aerosol that comprises materials
measured as sulphate. The recommendation was also that, similar to the case in sulphate species,
nitrate species should not be treated separately from PM2.5 (COMEAP, 2009). Therefore, this is not
to say that all components of PM2.5 have the same toxicity – but rather that there is not, at present,
evidence to quantify the effects of different components separately.
5. In addition, although a co-exposure to ozone (O3), nitrogen dioxide (NO2) and SO2 with PMs has
been shown (Hu et al., 2020) it was not possible to determine overall risk or relative risk of long-term
effects of these contaminants due to lack of the actual measurements of the concentrations of these
contaminants in PMs.
6. For co-exposure of such contaminants, the Acute Exposure Guideline Levels (AEGL) for high
priority, acutely toxic chemicals such as O3, NO2 and SO2 may be applicable. Depending on the
level of exposure, three AEGL levels could be identified ranging from notable discomfort, irritation,
or certain asymptomatic, non-sensory effects to irreversible or other serious, long-lasting adverse
health effects or to life-threatening health effects or death (National Advisory Committee for Acute
Exposure Guideline Levels for Hazardous Substances (NAC/AEGL Committee).
2
Based on these abovementioned considerations, the non-cancer Hazard Quotients (HQs) for PM 2.5 were
first calculated where the probable risk of developing adverse non-cancer health effects were the highest
when exposed to the predicted ambient PM2.5 levels ranging from 312.42 to 1.01 for 53 of the 101 sites
analysed. As mentioned, by using the MPPD model, it was possible from the ambient PM 2.5 levels to
predict which fraction would deposit in the deeper areas of the respiratory system. Such predictions could
be made for the three age groups, i.e. 3-months, 9-years and 21-years where the deposited dose
represents a more realistic scenario compared to the use of ambient air concentrations.
The results could show that, of the total deposited particles, the majority of these were deposited in the
pulmonary region at 0.1816 (41.6%), 0.199 (40.6%) and 0.1753 (52.7%) for 3-months, 9-years and 21-
years age groups, respectively.
The deposited doses for the time spent indoors and outdoors were also calculated. Despite selecting the
pulmonary indoor and outdoor deposited doses during the calculations of the HQs, a relatively high non-
cancer risk was still evident in all three age groups for the following locations: Blackburn Estate,
Blackburn, Reddam House Umhlanga School, Gateway Montessori and Learning Centre, ML Sultan
Blackburn Primary School, Akeso Umhlanga Hospital, Woodlands and Prestondale.
With regards to the estimation of the burden of disease, several health endpoints were considered when
the relative risk (RR), excess risk (ER) and attributable fraction (AF) were calculated using the MPPD-
modelled deposited dose for each of the three age groups. As expected, the results indicated that the fire
incident did increase the risk of surrounding communities at the Blackburn Estate and the Reddam House
Umhlanga School to develop some of these health endpoints.
SKYSIDE South Africa has provided the measured concentrations of priority pollutants in the immediate
vicinity of the UPL warehouse but has indicated that the monitoring work did not cover the initiation and
first days during which the fire burnt. The HQs and estimation of disease using the actual measured
values a few months after the fire incident clearly indicated no risk and were markedly different from that
of the modelled PM2.5 levels. For example, the Reddam community showed low HQs of 0.14 and 0.27 for
PM10 and PM2.5, respectively. The Blackburn community showed HQs as low as 0.22 (PM10) and 0.34
(PM2.5). The RRs and AFs in these two communities coincided with the HQ results and showed values
of < 1 (RR) as well as negative AF values, thereby indicating no risk. For the East Site community, the
HQ value for PM2.5 was 1.20 thereby indicating a possible risk for non-cancer effects. The RRs also
showed a low probability of developing cardiopulmonary mortality and lung cancer mortality. As for the
Makro car park community, no risks of developing adverse health effects were noted (HQ for PM2.5 =
0.40 and RRs around 1).
Despite low risks to measured PM10 and PM2.5, particle-bound elements appear to show substantial risks
to non-cancer adverse health effects. The elements of concern appeared to be aluminium, calcium,
manganese and phosphorous.
It is clear that the results discussed in this report show markedly different risks between the predicted
levels immediately after the fire incident and actual measured values months after the fire incident. As
expected, the PM levels decreased from the time of the incident to months after the fire incident. A more
accurate assessment would have been possible had actual measurements been conducted in the days
immediately following the incident. Nevertheless, current measured PM levels do not pose any risk to the
predicted non-cancer adverse health effects.
Most notably, the modelled levels were orders of magnitude higher than that of the measured levels and
this difference greatly influenced the health risk assessment.
3
CONTENTS
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ............................................................................................................... 2

ABBREVIATIONS ........................................................................................................................ 5
HEALTH RISK ASSESSMENT USING MODELLED DATA PROVIDED BY AIRSHED ...................... 6
1. Hazard Quotients (HQs).................................................................................................... 9
2. Multiple-path particle dosimetry (MPPD) model .............................................................. 11
3. Relative Risk (RR), Excess Risk (ER) and Attributable Fraction ...................................... 28
HEALTH RISK ASSESSMENT USING MEASURED DATA PROVIDED BY SKYSIDE .................... 33
1. Hazard Quotients (HQ) ................................................................................................... 33
2. Relative Risk (RR), Excess Risk (ER) and Attributable Mortality ..................................... 37
2.1. Exposure to PM2.5 .......................................................................................................................... 37
2.2. Exposure to PM10........................................................................................................................... 42
3. Trace metal concentrations ............................................................................................ 42
3.1. Trace metal concentrations at the North site ............................................................................. 44
3.2. Trace metal concentrations at the East Site ............................................................................... 45
SUMMARY AND RECOMMENDATIONS ..................................................................................... 46
REFERENCES ........................................................................................................................... 47
4
ABBREVIATIONS
AEGL Acute Exposure Guideline Levels

AF Attributable Fraction
BW Body weight
ER Excess Risk
FADD Field average daily dose
H2S Hydrogen sulphide
HQ Hazard Quotient
IR Inhalation Rate
MPPD Multiple-Path Particle Dosimetry
NAAQS National Ambient Air Quality Standard
NO2 Nitrogen dioxide
O3 Ozone
PAH Polyaromatic hydrocarbons
PM Particulate matter
PM10 Particulate matter with less than 10 µm in diameter
PM2.5 Particulate matter with less than 2.5 µm in diameter
RfC Reference Concentration
RfD Reference Dose
RR Relative Risk
SADD Safe average daily dose
SO2 Sulphur dioxide
SVOCs Semi-volatile organic compounds
TB Tracheobronchial
TSP Total Suspended Particulates
VOCs Volatile organic compounds
5
BACKGROUND
A report, entitled “Atmospheric Impact Report: of UPL Cornubia Warehouse Fire (July 2021)”, was
received from Airshed Planning Professionals (Pty) Ltd (Burger et al., 2021) providing predicted
concentrations of air contaminants resulting from a fire at the warehouse located at Umganu Road,
Cornubia. Predicted concentrations, calculated by implementing three atmospheric dispersion models
with different mathematical approaches, were employed: the US Environmental Protection Agency (US
EPA) CALPUFF, the US EPA SciPuff, and the ALOFT-FT models. The air contaminants included
particulate matter (PM2.5 and PM10), and other organic and inorganic chemicals, including pesticides. A
list of was provided by Dr Gerhard Verdoon from the Griffin Poison Centre.
A second report, entitled “Air Monitoring Survey: Cornubia Fire”, was received from SKYSIDE, South
Africa. The aim of the work was to measure the concentrations of priority pollutants in the immediate
vicinity of the UPL warehouse but it was indicated that the monitoring did not cover the initiation and first
days during which the fire burnt. Early monitoring did, however, show that dust levels during the fire would
have been above national limits. With the extinguishing of the fire, all parameters measured fell below
the national limits and generally applied international limits, such as those issued by the World Health
Organization (WHO). The pollutants included volatile and semi-volatile organic compounds (VOCs and
SVOCs), SO2, NO2, hydrogen sulphide (H2S), total suspended particulates (TSP), PM10 and PM2.5 dust
fractions, dust and chemical deposition, heavy metals, dioxins and polyaromatic hydrocarbons (PAH).
For particulate fractions (PM10 and PM2.5), the samples were collected onto filter papers over 24-hour
sampling periods. After sampling, the filters were weighed to determine the cumulative mass of dust
collected and were also analysed for metals.
A description of the UPL site, warehouse inventory, fire plume characterisation, volatile and particulate
matter components, and the methodologies implemented to predict or determine the concentrations of
the resulting airborne contaminants are described in the two reports mentioned.
HEALTH RISK ASSESSMENT USING MODELLED DATA PROVIDED BY AIRSHED
There is a high level of confidence in the methodology and mathematical models that were used in the
investigation. The results and conclusion in this report are based on the understanding of the events that
occurred during the incident.
The modelled values for PM2.5 provided by AIRSHED are arranged in a descending order in Table 1.
According to Burger et al., 2021, it is estimated that from the range of emission used to estimate the
pollution rate of production, the estimated product fraction available for combustion, the fraction of
unburnt pesticides and the differences in model results, it is estimated that the accuracy of the SciPuff
air concentration results summarised in the report are mostly within a factor of 3 (Burger et al., 2021).
The present report is, however, cognizant of the fact that the modelled values obtained from Airshed are
likely over predicted and thus more on the conservative side.
6
Table 1: Modeled maximum 24-hour PM2.5 concentration levels in the surrounding
communities (discrete receptor locations)
Time of Maximum
Daily Average Maximum
Location (2021/07/13 to 2021/07/20
(μg/m³)
period)
Blackburn Estate 12496.8 2021/07/14 00:00
Blackburn 7713.9 2021/07/14 00:00
Reddam House Umhlanga School 4700.6 2021/07/14 00:00
Gateway Montessori and Learning
Centre 3390.8 2021/07/14 00:00
ML Sultan Blackburn Primary School 2980.3 2021/07/14 00:00
Akeso Umhlanga Hospital 2750.7 2021/07/14 00:00
Woodlands 1544.3 2021/07/14 00:00
Prestondale 1316.5 2021/07/14 00:00
Umhlanga Ridge Park School 1067.1 2021/07/14 00:00
Umhlanga Medical Institute 1033.9 2021/07/14 00:00
Busamed Gateway Private Hospital 880.9 2021/07/14 00:00
Herrwood Park 825.8 2021/07/14 00:00
New Shoots Preschool 780.5 2021/07/14 00:00
Khanyisa Developmental Centre 744.5 2021/07/14 00:00
Atholton Primary School 713.7 2021/07/14 00:00
Mondia Health Umhlanga 649.8 2021/07/14 00:00
Umdloti Clinic 632.8 2021/07/14 00:00
Netcare Umhlanga Hospital 619.5 2021/07/14 00:00
Umdloti 613.6 2021/07/14 00:00
Umhlanga Ridge 450.4 2021/07/14 00:00
Beacon Rock Medical Centre 448.6 2021/07/14 00:00
Little Einsteins Pre-primary Lagoon Dr 421.8 2021/07/14 00:00
Umhlanga 406.9 2021/07/14 00:00
Anton Lembede MST Academy 332 2021/07/14 00:00
Waterloo 317.8 2021/07/14 00:00
Somerset Park 302 2021/07/14 00:00
Sharks Umhlanga Rocks Drive 288.8 2021/07/14 00:00
Mount Edgecombe 279.3 2021/07/14 00:00
Sugarcane Research Institute 244 2021/07/14 00:00
Mount Edgecombe Country Club 242.2 2021/07/14 00:00
Mount Edgecombe Country Club 183.3 2021/07/14 00:00
Seedlings Preschool 177.4 2021/07/14 00:00
Umhlanga Rocks 176.8 2021/07/14 00:00
Umhloti Primary School 176.6 2021/07/14 00:00
Crawford International La Lucia 142.3 2021/07/14 00:00
Siphosethu Primary School 125.3 2021/07/14 00:00
Mount Edgecombe Private School 116.1 2021/07/14 00:00
Waterloo Secondary School 114.2 2021/07/14 00:00
Centenary Park 93.7 2021/07/14 00:00
Life Healthcare Mount Edgecombe 83.1 2021/07/14 00:00
Hospital
Victory Preschool La Lucia 71.3 2021/07/14 00:00
Montessori at Umhlanga Pre-primary 69.8 2021/07/14 00:00
Life Occupational Health Clinic Colgate 63.2 2021/07/14 00:00
Prime Cure Clinic Wick St 60.9 2021/07/14 00:00
Rockford 57 2021/07/14 00:00
Mount Edgecombe 56.6 2021/07/14 00:00
La Lucia 55.6 2021/07/14 00:00
Vedprakash I Hospital 52.2 2021/07/14 00:00
7
North Coast Family Medical Centre 51.1 2021/07/14 00:00
Russom St
Greenbury 50.7 2021/07/14 00:00
Southgate 49.2 2021/07/20 00:00
Mahatma Gandhi Memorial Hospital 46.2 2021/07/14 00:00
Verulam Secondary School 40.3 2021/07/14 00:00
Mountview Secondary School 39.3 2021/07/14 00:00
Verulam Medical Centre 39 2021/07/14 00:00
Hamptons High 35.8 2021/07/17 00:00
Mounthaven Primary School 33.8 2021/07/14 00:00
Stanmore 33.6 2021/07/14 00:00
Woodview 33.6 2021/07/14 00:00
Montessori Life Pre-primary 33.3 2021/07/17 00:00
Glen Anil Preschool & Day Care 31.5 2021/07/17 00:00
Rainham 31.3 2021/07/20 00:00
Glen Anil 29.2 2021/07/17 00:00
La Lucia Jr Primary School 27.8 2021/07/19 00:00
Eastbury 27.7 2021/07/14 00:00
Mount Moriah 27.4 2021/07/20 00:00
Glen Ashley 27.3 2021/07/19 00:00
Riet River 25.8 2021/07/14 00:00
Mount Royal Combined School 25.2 2021/07/14 00.00
Eastview Primary School 24 2021/07/14 00:00
Hopeville Primary School 23.3 2021/07/20 00:00
Palmview Secondary School 23 2021/07/14 00:00
Dalefarm 21.8 2021/07/20 00:00
Clayfield 20.5 2021/07/14 00:00
Avoca Secondary School 18.3 2021/07/17 00:00
Al-ameen Montessori Preschool 18.3 2021/07/14 00:00
Olympia Primary School 17.7 2021/07/14 00:00
Hamptons Primary School 16.3 2021/07/17 00:00
Stonebridge 15.9 2021/07/20 00:00
Longcroft 15.5 2021/07/14 00:00
eThekwini Primary School 15.4 2021/07/20 00:00
Effingham Secondary School 14.7 2021/07/17 00:00
North Crest Primary School 14 2021/07/17 00:00
Gugulethu Primary School 13.5 2021/07/20 00:00
Effingham Heights Primary School 13.4 2021/07/17 00:00
Isibonelo High School 13.3 2021/07/20 00:00
Thandukwazi Primary School 13.2 2021/07/20 00:00
Northlands Primary School 12.6 2021/07/19 00:00
Quarry Heights Primary School 12.4 2021/07/20 00:00
Shastri Park Secondary School 12 2021/07/14 00:00
Phaphmani Primary School 11.8 2021/07/20 00:00
Headway Pre-primary school 11.1 2021/07/17 00:00
Rustic Manor Primary School 10 2021/07/14 00:00
eThekwini Hospital and Heart Centre 9.2 2021/07/17 00:00
Trenance Manor Secondary School 7.4 2021/07/14 00:00
Maqadini Primary School 6.9 2021/07/20 00:00
King Dinuzulu Hospital Complex 6 2021/07/17 00:00
Nkulisabantu Primary School 5.7 2021/07/20 00:00
Bhekilanga Primary School 4.8 2021/07/20 00:00
Brookdale Secondary School 4 2021/07/18 00:00
Brookdale Primary School 3.8 2021/07/18 00:00
8
1. Hazard Quotients (HQs)
A hazard quotient is the ratio of the potential exposure to a substance at a level at which no non-cancer
health effects are expected from exposure to the contaminant. HQ < 1 indicates that no adverse health
effects are expected as a result of exposure. A hazard quotient exceeding 1 cannot be translated to a
statistical probability that adverse health effects will occur. HQs are dependent on the reference
concentration or dose selected at which no adverse health effect should occur. However, since different
reference levels are often calculated via different methodologies among various institutions, they do, by
default, not have equal accuracy or precision and are therefore not based on the same severity of adverse
effect. Hence, the level of concern does not increase linearly as an HQ approaches and exceeds 1
(USEPA, 2005).
In the absence of an established Reference Dose/Reference Concentration (RfD/RfC) for PM2.5, the non-
cancer HQ was calculated using equation 1:
( )
𝐻𝑎𝑧𝑎𝑟𝑑 𝑞𝑢𝑜𝑡𝑖𝑒𝑛𝑡 (𝐻𝑄) = ( )
(1)
The field average daily dose (FADD) and safe average daily dose (SADD) in turn, were calculated using
equation 2:
×
𝐹𝐴𝐷𝐷 𝑜𝑟 𝑆𝐴𝐷𝐷 = (2)
For FADD, C represented the average of the PM2.5 concentration levels for 13-20 July 2021 as shown in
Table 1. For the SADD, C represents the 24 h PM2.5 National ambient air quality standard (NAAQS) of
40 μg/m³, which is lower than the value of 65 µg/m3 set by the US EPA (1997). For both the FADD and
SADD, IR represented the inhalation rate for adult females of 11.3 m3/day and BW represented body
weight of 70 kg (ATSDR, 2016).
The results obtained are presented in Table 2. The HQs for PM2.5 at 53 of the 101 discrete receptor
locations were > 1, indicating high to exceptionally high risk for developing non-cancer adverse health
effects when exposed to the concentrations obtained from the modelling calculations.
Table 2: Non-cancer HQs calculated from the exposure to predicted PM 2.5 levels at different
sites presented in Table 1
Location ADD SADD HQ

Blackburn Estate 2677.89 8.57 312.42
Blackburn 1652.98 8.57 192.85
Reddam House Umhlanga School 1007.27 8.57 117.52
Gateway Montessori and Learning Centre 726.60 8.57 84.77
ML Sultan Blackburn Primary School 638.64 8.57 74.51
Akeso Umhlanga Hospital 589.44 8.57 68.77
Woodlands 330.92 8.57 38.61
Prestondale 282.11 8.57 32.91
Umhlanga Ridge Park School 228.66 8.57 26.68
Umhlanga Medical Institute 221.55 8.57 25.85
Busamed Gateway Private Hospital 188.76 8.57 22.02
Herrwood Park 176.96 8.57 20.65
New Shoots Preschool 167.25 8.57 19.51
Khanyisa Developmental Centre 159.54 8.57 18.61
Atholton Primary School 152.94 8.57 17.84
Mondia Health Umhlanga 139.24 8.57 16.25
9
Umdloti Clinic 135.60 8.57 15.82
Netcare Umhlanga Hospital 132.75 8.57 15.49
Umdloti 131.49 8.57 15.34
Umhlanga Ridge 96.51 8.57 11.26
Beacon Rock Medical Centre 96.13 8.57 11.22
Little Einsteins Pre-primary Lagoon Dr 90.39 8.57 10.55
Umhlanga 87.19 8.57 10.17
Anton Lembede MST Academy 71.14 8.57 8.30
Waterloo 68.10 8.57 7.95
Somerset Park 64.71 8.57 7.55
Sharks Umhlanga Rocks Drive 61.89 8.57 7.22
Mount Edgecombe 59.85 8.57 6.98
Sugarcane Research Institute 52.29 8.57 6.10
Mount Edgecombe Country 51.90 8.57 6.06
Mount Edgecombe Country 39.28 8.57 4.58
Seedlings Preschool 38.01 8.57 4.44
Umhlanga Rocks 37.89 8.57 4.42
Umhloti Primary School 37.84 8.57 4.42
Crawford International La Lucia 30.49 8.57 3.56
Siphosethu Primary School 26.85 8.57 3.13
Mount Edgecombe Private School 24.88 8.57 2.90
Waterloo Secondary School 24.47 8.57 2.86
Centenary Park 20.08 8.57 2.34
Life Healthcare Mount Edgecombe Hospital 17.81 8.57 2.08
Victory Preschool La Lucia 15.28 8.57 1.78
Montessori at Umhlanga Pre-primary 14.96 8.57 1.75
Life Occupational Health Clinic Colgate 13.54 8.57 1.58
Prime Cure Clinic Wick St 13.05 8.57 1.52
Rockford 12.21 8.57 1.43
Mount Edgecombe 12.13 8.57 1.42
La Lucia 11.91 8.57 1.39
Vedprakash I Hospital 11.19 8.57 1.31
North Coast Family Medical Centre Russom St 10.95 8.57 1.28
Greenbury 10.86 8.57 1.27
Southgate 10.54 8.57 1.23
Mahatma Gandhi Memorial Hospital 9.90 8.57 1.16
Verulam Secondary School 8.64 8.57 1.008
Mountview Secondary School 8.42 8.57 0.98
Verulam Medical Centre 8.36 8.57 0.98
Hamptons High 7.67 8.57 0.90
Mounthaven Primary School 7.24 8.57 0.85
Stanmore 7.20 8.57 0.84
Woodview 7.20 8.57 0.84
Montessori Life Pre-primary 7.14 8.57 0.83
Glen Anil Preschool & Day Care 6.75 8.57 0.79
Rainham 6.71 8.57 0.78
Glen Anil 6.26 8.57 0.73
La Lucia Jr Primary School 5.96 8.57 0.70
Eastbury 5.94 8.57 0.69
Mount Moriah 5.87 8.57 0.69
Glen Ashley 5.85 8.57 0.68
Riet River 5.53 8.57 0.65
Mount Royal Combined School 5.40 8.57 0.63
Eastview Primary School 5.14 8.57 0.60
Hopeville Primary School 4.99 8.57 0.58
Palmview Secondary School 4.93 8.57 0.58
Dalefarm 4.67 8.57 0.55
Clayfield 4.39 8.57 0.51
10
Avoca Secondary School 3.92 8.57 0.46
Al-ameen Montessori Preschool 3.92 8.57 0.46
Olympia Primary School 3.79 8.57 0.44
Hamptons Primary School 3.49 8.57 0.41
Stonebridge 3.41 8.57 0.40
Longcroft 3.32 8.57 0.39
eThekwini Primary School 3.30 8.57 0.39
Effingham Secondary School 3.15 8.57 0.37
North Crest Primary School 3.00 8.57 0.35
Gugulethu Primary School 2.89 8.57 0.34
Effingham Heights Primary School 2.87 8.57 0.34
Isibonelo High School 2.85 8.57 0.33
Thandukwazi Primary School 2.83 8.57 0.33
Northlands Primary School 2.70 8.57 0.32
Quarry Heights Primary School 2.66 8.57 0.31
Shastri Park Secondary School 2.57 8.57 0.30
Phaphmani Primary School 2.53 8.57 0.30
Headway Pre-primary school 2.38 8.57 0.28
Rustic Manor Primary School 2.14 8.57 0.25
eThekwini Hospital and Heart Centre 1.97 8.57 0.23
Trenance Manor Secondary School 1.59 8.57 0.19
Maqadini Primary School 1.48 8.57 0.17
King Dinuzulu Hospital Complex 1.29 8.57 0.15
Nkulisabantu Primary School 1.22 8.57 0.14
Bhekilanga Primary School 1.03 8.57 0.12
Brookdale Secondary School 0.86 8.57 0.10
Brookdale Primary School 0.81 8.57 0.09
It should be noted that, although the inhalation rate is included in the calculations of the HQs, it does not
consider the actual fraction of PM2.5 that is deposited within the respiratory system. Air sampling provides
only a crude estimate of PM2.5 exposure. It is therefore important to determine the internal dose to be
able to associate health effects with those particles that may enter the thorax and penetrate beyond the
ciliated airways. This means that particles must generally be deposited in the alveolar or pulmonary
region to exert their biological effects. Thus, the hazard of inhaled particles depends on their deposition
site in the respiratory tract.
For the inhalation of particles, the internal dose is most often predicted using the MPPD model.
2. Multiple-path particle dosimetry (MPPD) model
The human respiratory tract is divided into three main regions based on size, structure, and function,
namely, the head, tracheobronchial region (also known as the conducting airways), and the gas-
exchange region (also known as the parenchymal, alveolar, or pulmonary region). Particle size
determines the number of particles that may reach and ultimately adversely affect these different regions.
Thoracic and respirable fractions of inhaled particles are defined as the fraction that is capable of passing
beyond the larynx and ciliated airways, respectively, during inhalation. The respirable fraction, on the
other hand, penetrates the alveolar or pulmonary region of the lung. PM10 is referred to as thoracic
particles and PM2.5 is referred to as the respirable particulate fraction that penetrates the gas-exchange
region (USEPA 1997).
11
The asymmetric MPPD model (version 3.04) developed by the Chemical Industry Institute of Toxicology
(CIIT) (https://www.ara.com/mppd/), was adopted for this report. The model enables the calculation of
particle deposition fraction and exposure doses for humans and includes age-specific human lung
models. Three deposition mechanisms, including impaction, sedimentation and diffusion were considered
during respiratory deposition. As the airway structures are different in the head airway, tracheobronchial
(TB) and alveolar regions, the dominant deposition mechanisms also differ (Hinds 1999). The uncertainty
for minute dose rate calculations, which is used to calculate the parameters of the MPPD model, is often
due to the variation of minute ventilation, deposition fraction and particle number concentration (Vu et al.,
2017).
Using the MPPD model (version 3.04), it was possible to predict inhaled PM2.5 particle deposition and
dose in various lung regions. Figure 1 shows the parameters used in the model. In Step 3 (exposure
scenario) of Figure 1, the exposure concentration was set as the predicted daily average maximum for
each of the discrete receptor locations shown in Table 1.
Figure 1: Parameters used in the MPPD model
The fraction deposited in the respiratory system differs between age groups and, for this reason, three
age groups were considered in the MPPD calculations. In general, the MPPD software allows for the
selection of multiple age groups ranging from infants (3 and 28 months), children (3, 8, 9 and 14 years)
and adults (18 and 21 years). In order to provide a representative selection of each age group, 3-months
(for infants), 9-years (for children) and 21-years (for adults), were selected. Previous studies have also
12
distinguished MPPD analyses according to various age groups (Manojkumar et al., 2019). Table 3 shows
a summary of the deposition of PM2.5 in different sections of the lung for three age groups when exposed
to the highest predicted PM2.5 concentration of 12.5 mg/m³ at Blackburn Estate.
Table 3: Deposition of PM2.5 in the respiratory tract of three age groups when exposed to
the highest daily average concentration (12.5 mg/m³-Blackburn Estate) of PM 2.5
PM2.5 (fraction and % of deposited fraction)

Age group Total deposition
Head Tracheobronchial Pulmonary
3-months 0.4365 0.2167 (49.6%) 0.0383 (8.8%) 0.1816 (41.6%)
9-years 0.4906 0.2555 (52.1%) 0.0362 (7.4%) 0.1990 (40.6%)
21-years 0.3326 0.1203 (36.2%) 0.0369 (11.1%) 0.1753 (52.7%)
A detailed discussion of the deposition characteristics in each of the three age groups follows.
3-months age group

Figure 2a shows the deposition of PM2.5 into the head, tracheobronchial and pulmonary regions for the
3-months age group, calculated using the MPPD model. From the total fraction of 0.4365 deposited, the
head region accounted for a higher deposition fraction of PM2.5 (0.2167), followed by the pulmonary
region (0.1816). This shows that a large proportion of the particles (> 40%) would deposit in the air sacs,
thereby leading to lower particulate clearance and higher retention (Lippman et al., 1980). The lowest
deposition (0.0383, 8.8%) was calculated for the tracheobronchial region. In Figure 2b, the deposited
fraction in the lungs of the 3-month age group is visualized; the yellow section reflects particles that are
moderately deposited whilst the red section reflects particles that are highly deposited.
Figure 2: Deposition fraction of PM2.5 for the 3-months age group (a), visualization of the
deposited PM2.5 (b)
9-years age group

The total deposition fraction of the inhaled PM2.5 for the 9-years age group was 0.4906 (Figure 3a). Of
the total PM2.5, approximately half (0.2555, 52.1%) was deposited in the head region, 0.1990 (40.6%)
was deposited in the pulmonary region, and 0.0362 (7.4%) was deposited in the tracheobronchial region.
13
Figure 3: Deposition fraction of PM2.5 for the 9-years age group (a), visualization of the
deposited PM2.5 (b)
21-years age group

The total deposition fraction of the inhaled PM2.5 modelled for the 21-year-old age group was 0.3326 as
shown in Figure 4a. Most of the particles (0.1753, 52.7%) were deposited in the pulmonary region,
followed by the head region (0.1203, 36.2%), while the smallest fraction was deposited in the
tracheobronchial region (0.0369, 11.1%).
Figure 4: Deposition fraction of PM2.5 for the 21-years age group (a), visualization of the
deposited PM2.5 (b)
Figures 2-4 shows the deposited fractions for the worst-case exposure scenario of 12.5 mg/m³ at the
Blackburn Estate. Lower levels of exposures were predicted for the other locations (Table 1). Therefore,
the predicted deposition fractions for the pulmonary region for each of the three age groups at the median
exposure location (0.0492 mg/m3, Southgate, Table 1), were calculated, as well as those for the lowest
exposure location (0.0038 mg/m3, Brookdale Primary School, Table 1). Table 4 shows that, irrespective
of the location, the deposition fraction remained constant.
14
Table 4: Deposition in the pulmonary region of the lungs for three age groups at three
locations
Location Exposure 3-months 9-years 21-years

Brookdale Minimum (0.0038 mg/m3) 0.1816 0.1990 0.1753
Southgate Median (0.0492 mg/m3) 0.1816 0.1990 0.1753
Blackburn Estate Maximum (12.5 mg/m³) 0.1816 0.1990 0.1753
Using the predicted particle dose deposited in the pulmonary region of the lungs serves as a better
presentation of the health risks and has previously been adopted when calculating the HQs of exposure
to particle-bound metals (Chalvatzaki, et al 2019). The same approach was used whereby the fraction
deposited in the pulmonary region of the lungs for the three age groups was used in equation 3 to
calculate the HQ.
µ / ³
𝐻𝑎𝑧𝑎𝑟𝑑 𝑞𝑢𝑜𝑡𝑖𝑒𝑛𝑡 (𝐻𝑄) = .
(3)
. / ³
Note that it was not necessary to incorporate the IR and BW as was done in equation 2, as these two
factors have already been accounted for as input parameters in the deposition modelling, using the MPPD
(Figure 1).
The time spent indoors versus outdoors for each of the three age groups was also taken into account.
Equation 4 was used to calculate the indoor PM2.5 concentration.
The percentage of outdoor pollution (whether gases or particulates) infiltrating the indoor environment
contributes considerably to the indoor air quality and has been studied extensively. With regard to the fire
incident at the Warehouse, AIRSHED estimated the indoor air concentrations of SO 2 gas at Blackburn,
Reddam, Woodlands, Prestondale, Somerset Park and Mount Edgecombe Park (Burger et al., 2021).
The outdoor infiltration of SO2 at these locations ranged from approximately 15% to 65%, with an average
of around 40%. Several studies have also estimated the infiltration of particulates such as PM 2.5 (Allen et
al., 2012; Lv et al., 2017; Park et al., 2021). For example, Park et al. (2021) estimated the PM 2.5 infiltration
in 23 Korean multifamily homes, using regression analysis. The percentage infiltration of PM 2.5
undoubtedly depends on the characteristics of the building, among other factors, and may vary from 36%
to 66% (Park et al, 2021). Since PM2.5 pollution is the focus of this report, it was decided to select two
different infiltration factors to represent a more realistic scenario (i.e. 35%) and a worst-case scenario
(i.e. 65%).
𝐷𝑒𝑝𝑜𝑠𝑖𝑡𝑒𝑑 𝑑𝑜𝑠𝑒 × 𝐼𝑛𝑓𝑖𝑙𝑡𝑒𝑟𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛 𝐹𝑎𝑐𝑡𝑜𝑟 × 𝑡 (ℎ𝑜𝑢𝑟𝑠)

𝐼𝑛𝑑𝑜𝑜𝑟 𝑐𝑜𝑛𝑐𝑒𝑛𝑡𝑟𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛 = (4)
𝑇 (ℎ𝑜𝑢𝑟𝑠)
where;
 Deposited dose = concentration of PM2.5 deposited in the pulmonary region after clearance
obtained using the MPPD model.
 Infiltration factor = concentration of PM2.5 from the outdoor environment that infiltrates the indoor
environment. This was selected as 15% , 35% , 40% and 65%.
 t = number of hours spent indoors by the three age groups as per Table 5
 T = total number of hours in a day (24 h)
15
It is suggested that, in modern society, the elderly, those who are ill, and infants spend 80% of their time
indoors. However. children spend almost half of the day playing outdoors (Morawska et al.,2013;
Manigrasso et al., 2018; Koivisto et al., 2019). Therefore, these proportions, converted to numbers of
hours indoors in Table 5, were used in equation 4.
Table 5: Number of hours spent indoors and outdoors for each age group
Age group Indoor time (hours) Outdoor time (hours)

3-months 19.2 4.8
9-years 12.0 12.0
21-years 19.2 4.8
Tables 6 and 7 list the HQs of the 3-months age group when the pulmonary deposited fraction,
indoor/outdoor hours, and different infiltration factors are taken into account. The tables show that
these factors decrease the HQ dramatically, from those presented in Table 2. Despite this decrease, the
age group still shows probable risks to non-cancer adverse health effects.
It is also evident that the risks increased as the infiltration factor increased from 35% (Table 6) to the
worst-case scenario of 65% (Table 7). For example, the HQ of the Blackburn Estate increased from 27.23
(Table 6) to 40.85 (Table 7).
Table 6: Non-cancer HQs calculated from the exposure to predicted PM 2.5 levels from Table
1 based on the pulmonary deposited dose for the 3-months age group, using an
infiltration factor of 35% for the calculation of indoor concentration
Averag Indoor
Deposited Outdoo
e daily conc Indoo Outdoo Tota
Location dose r conc
conc (µg/m3 r HQ r HQ l HQ
(µg/m3) (µg/m3)
(µg/m3) )
Blackburn Estate 12496.80 2269.42 635.44 453.88 15.89 11.35 27.23
Blackburn 7713.90 1400.84 392.24 280.17 9.81 7.00 16.81
Reddam House Umhlanga School 4700.60 853.63 239.02 170.73 5.98 4.27 10.24
Gateway Montessori and Learning Centre 3390.80 615.77 172.42 123.15 4.31 3.08 7.39
ML Sultan Blackburn Primary School 2980.30 541.22 151.54 108.24 3.79 2.71 6.49
Akeso Umhlanga Hospital 2750.70 499.53 139.87 99.91 3.50 2.50 5.99
Woodlands 1544.30 280.44 78.52 56.09 1.96 1.40 3.37
Prestondale 1316.50 239.08 66.94 47.82 1.67 1.20 2.87
Umhlanga Ridge Park School 1067.10 193.79 54.26 38.76 1.36 0.97 2.33
Umhlanga Medical Institute 1033.90 187.76 52.57 37.55 1.31 0.94 2.25
Busamed Gateway Private Hospital 880.90 159.97 44.79 31.99 1.12 0.80 1.92
Herrwood Park 825.80 149.97 41.99 29.99 1.05 0.75 1.80
New Shoots Preschool 780.50 141.74 39.69 28.35 0.99 0.71 1.70
Khanyisa Developmental Centre 744.50 135.20 37.86 27.04 0.95 0.68 1.62
Atholton Primary School 713.70 129.61 36.29 25.92 0.91 0.65 1.56
Mondia Health Umhlanga 649.80 118.00 33.04 23.60 0.83 0.59 1.42
Umdloti Clinic 632.80 114.92 32.18 22.98 0.80 0.57 1.38
Netcare Umhlanga Hospital 619.50 112.50 31.50 22.50 0.79 0.56 1.35
Umdloti 613.60 111.43 31.20 22.29 0.78 0.56 1.34
Umhlanga Ridge 450.40 81.79 22.90 16.36 0.57 0.41 0.98
Beacon Rock Medical Centre 448.60 81.47 22.81 16.29 0.57 0.41 0.98
Little Einsteins Pre-primary Lagoon Dr 421.80 76.60 21.45 15.32 0.54 0.38 0.92
Umhlanga 406.90 73.89 20.69 14.78 0.52 0.37 0.89
16
Anton Lembede MST Academy 332.00 60.29 16.88 12.06 0.42 0.30 0.72
Waterloo 317.80 57.71 16.16 11.54 0.40 0.29 0.69
Somerset Park 302.00 54.84 15.36 10.97 0.38 0.27 0.66
Sharks Umhlanga Rocks Drive 288.80 52.45 14.68 10.49 0.37 0.26 0.63
Mount Edgecombe 279.30 50.72 14.20 10.14 0.36 0.25 0.61
Sugarcane Research Institute 244.00 44.31 12.41 8.86 0.31 0.22 0.53
Mount Edgecombe Country 242.20 43.98 12.32 8.80 0.31 0.22 0.53
Seedlings Preschool 177.40 32.22 9.02 6.44 0.23 0.16 0.39
Umhlanga Rocks 176.80 32.11 8.99 6.42 0.22 0.16 0.39
Umhloti Primary School 176.60 32.07 8.98 6.41 0.22 0.16 0.38
Crawford International La Lucia 142.30 25.84 7.24 5.17 0.18 0.13 0.31
Siphosethu Primary School 125.30 22.75 6.37 4.55 0.16 0.11 0.27
Mount Edgecombe Private School 116.10 21.08 5.90 4.22 0.15 0.11 0.25
Waterloo Secondary School 114.20 20.74 5.81 4.15 0.15 0.10 0.25
Centenary Park 93.70 17.02 4.76 3.40 0.12 0.09 0.20
Life Healthcare Mount Edgecombe Hospital 83.10 15.09 4.23 3.02 0.11 0.08 0.18
Victory Preschool La Lucia 71.30 12.95 3.63 2.59 0.09 0.06 0.16
Montessori at Umhlanga Pre-primary 69.80 12.68 3.55 2.54 0.09 0.06 0.15
Life Occupational Health Clinic Colgate 63.20 11.48 3.21 2.30 0.08 0.06 0.14
Prime Cure Clinic Wick St 60.90 11.06 3.10 2.21 0.08 0.06 0.13
Rockford 57.00 10.35 2.90 2.07 0.07 0.05 0.12
Mount Edgecombe 56.60 10.28 2.88 2.06 0.07 0.05 0.12
La Lucia 55.60 10.10 2.83 2.02 0.07 0.05 0.12
Vedprakash I Hospital 52.20 9.48 2.65 1.90 0.07 0.05 0.11
North Coast Family Medical Centre Russom St 51.10 9.28 2.60 1.86 0.06 0.05 0.11
Greenbury 50.70 9.21 2.58 1.84 0.06 0.05 0.11
Southgate 49.20 8.93 2.50 1.79 0.06 0.04 0.11
Mahatma Gandhi Memorial Hospital 46.20 8.39 2.35 1.68 0.06 0.04 0.10
Verulam Secondary School 40.30 7.32 2.05 1.46 0.05 0.04 0.09
Mountview Secondary School 39.30 7.14 2.00 1.43 0.05 0.04 0.09
Verulam Medical Centre 39.00 7.08 1.98 1.42 0.05 0.04 0.08
Hamptons High 35.80 6.50 1.82 1.30 0.05 0.03 0.08
Mounthaven Primary School 33.80 6.14 1.72 1.23 0.04 0.03 0.07
Stanmore 33.60 6.10 1.71 1.22 0.04 0.03 0.07
Woodview 33.60 6.10 1.71 1.22 0.04 0.03 0.07
Montessori Life Pre-primary 33.30 6.05 1.69 1.21 0.04 0.03 0.07
Glen Anil Preschool & Day Care 31.50 5.72 1.60 1.14 0.04 0.03 0.07
Rainham 31.30 5.68 1.59 1.14 0.04 0.03 0.07
Glen Anil 29.20 5.30 1.48 1.06 0.04 0.03 0.06
La Lucia Jr Primary School 27.80 5.05 1.41 1.01 0.04 0.03 0.06
Eastbury 27.70 5.03 1.41 1.01 0.04 0.03 0.06
Mount Moriah 27.40 4.98 1.39 1.00 0.03 0.02 0.06
Glen Ashley 27.30 4.96 1.39 0.99 0.03 0.02 0.06
Riet River 25.80 4.69 1.31 0.94 0.03 0.02 0.06
Mount Royal Combined School 25.20 4.58 1.28 0.92 0.03 0.02 0.05
Eastview Primary School 24.00 4.36 1.22 0.87 0.03 0.02 0.05
Hopeville Primary School 23.30 4.23 1.18 0.85 0.03 0.02 0.05
Palmview Secondary School 23.00 4.18 1.17 0.84 0.03 0.02 0.05
Dalefarm 21.80 3.96 1.11 0.79 0.03 0.02 0.05
Clayfield 20.50 3.72 1.04 0.74 0.03 0.02 0.04
Avoca Secondary School 18.30 3.32 0.93 0.66 0.02 0.02 0.04
Al-ameen Montessori Preschool 18.30 3.32 0.93 0.66 0.02 0.02 0.04
Olympia Primary School 17.70 3.21 0.90 0.64 0.02 0.02 0.04
Hamptons Primary School 16.30 2.96 0.83 0.59 0.02 0.01 0.04
Stonebridge 15.90 2.89 0.81 0.58 0.02 0.01 0.03
Longcroft 15.50 2.81 0.79 0.56 0.02 0.01 0.03
eThekwini Primary School 15.40 2.80 0.78 0.56 0.02 0.01 0.03
Effingham Secondary School 14.70 2.67 0.75 0.53 0.02 0.01 0.03
North Crest Primary School 14.00 2.54 0.71 0.51 0.02 0.01 0.03
Gugulethu Primary School 13.50 2.45 0.69 0.49 0.02 0.01 0.03
Effingham Heights Primary School 13.40 2.43 0.68 0.49 0.02 0.01 0.03
Isibonelo High School 13.30 2.42 0.68 0.48 0.02 0.01 0.03
Thandukwazi Primary School 13.20 2.40 0.67 0.48 0.02 0.01 0.03
17
Northlands Primary School 12.60 2.29 0.64 0.46 0.02 0.01 0.03
Quarry Heights Primary School 12.40 2.25 0.63 0.45 0.02 0.01 0.03
Shastri Park Secondary School 12.00 2.18 0.61 0.44 0.02 0.01 0.03
Phaphmani Primary School 11.80 2.14 0.60 0.43 0.02 0.01 0.03
Headway Pre-primary school 11.10 2.02 0.56 0.40 0.01 0.01 0.02
Rustic Manor Primary School 10.00 1.82 0.51 0.36 0.01 0.01 0.02
eThekwini Hospital and Heart Centre 9.20 1.67 0.47 0.33 0.01 0.01 0.02
Trenance Manor Secondary School 7.40 1.34 0.38 0.27 0.01 0.01 0.02
Maqadini Primary School 6.90 1.25 0.35 0.25 0.01 0.01 0.02
King Dinuzulu Hospital Complex 6.00 1.09 0.31 0.22 0.01 0.01 0.01
Nkulisabantu Primary School 5.70 1.04 0.29 0.21 0.01 0.01 0.01
Bhekilanga Primary School 4.80 0.87 0.24 0.17 0.01 0.00 0.01
Brookdale Secondary School 4.00 0.73 0.20 0.15 0.01 0.00 0.01
Brookdale Primary School 3.80 0.69 0.19 0.14 0.00 0.00 0.01
Table 7: Non-cancer HQs calculated from the exposure to predicted PM2.5 levels from
Table 1 based on the pulmonary deposited dose for the 3-months age group,
using an infiltration factor of 65% for the calculation of indoor concentration
Average
Deposited Indoor Outdoor
daily Indoor Outdoor Total
Location dose conc conc
conc HQ HQ HQ
(µg/m3) (µg/m3) (µg/m3)
(µg/m3)
Blackburn 7713.90 1400.84 728.44 280.17 18.21 7.00 25.22
Woodlands 1544.30 280.44 145.83 56.09 3.65 1.40 5.05
Prestondale 1316.50 239.08 124.32 47.82 3.11 1.20 4.30
Herrwood Park 825.80 149.97 77.98 29.99 1.95 0.75 2.70
Umdloti Clinic 632.80 114.92 59.76 22.98 1.49 0.57 2.07
Umdloti 613.60 111.43 57.94 22.29 1.45 0.56 2.01
Umhlanga Ridge 450.40 81.79 42.53 16.36 1.06 0.41 1.47
Umhlanga 406.90 73.89 38.42 14.78 0.96 0.37 1.33
Waterloo 317.80 57.71 30.01 11.54 0.75 0.29 1.04
Somerset Park 302.00 54.84 28.52 10.97 0.71 0.27 0.99
Mount Edgecombe 279.30 50.72 26.37 10.14 0.66 0.25 0.91
Umhlanga Rocks 176.80 32.11 16.70 6.42 0.42 0.16 0.58
18
Centenary Park 93.70 17.02 8.85 3.40 0.22 0.09 0.31
Rockford 57.00 10.35 5.38 2.07 0.13 0.05 0.19
Mount Edgecombe 56.60 10.28 5.34 2.06 0.13 0.05 0.19
La Lucia 55.60 10.10 5.25 2.02 0.13 0.05 0.18
Greenbury 50.70 9.21 4.79 1.84 0.12 0.05 0.17
Southgate 49.20 8.93 4.65 1.79 0.12 0.04 0.16
Hamptons High 35.80 6.50 3.38 1.30 0.08 0.03 0.12
Stanmore 33.60 6.10 3.17 1.22 0.08 0.03 0.11
Woodview 33.60 6.10 3.17 1.22 0.08 0.03 0.11
Rainham 31.30 5.68 2.96 1.14 0.07 0.03 0.10
Glen Anil 29.20 5.30 2.76 1.06 0.07 0.03 0.10
Eastbury 27.70 5.03 2.62 1.01 0.07 0.03 0.09
Mount Moriah 27.40 4.98 2.59 1.00 0.06 0.02 0.09
Glen Ashley 27.30 4.96 2.58 0.99 0.06 0.02 0.09
Riet River 25.80 4.69 2.44 0.94 0.06 0.02 0.08
Dalefarm 21.80 3.96 2.06 0.79 0.05 0.02 0.07
Clayfield 20.50 3.72 1.94 0.74 0.05 0.02 0.07
Stonebridge 15.90 2.89 1.50 0.58 0.04 0.01 0.05
Longcroft 15.50 2.81 1.46 0.56 0.04 0.01 0.05
19
Similar to the 3-months age group, the HQs in the 9-years age group were also lower when the deposited
fractions, indoor/outdoor hours, and infiltration factor were taken into account (Tables 8 and 9). However,
risk for non-cancer health effects are still present and also increase as the infiltration factor increases
from 35% (Table 8) to the worst-case scenario of 65% (Table 9).
1 based on the pulmonary deposited dose for the 9-years age group, using an
infiltration factor of 35% for the calculation of Indoor concentration
Indoor
Average deposite Outdoor
conc Indoo Outdoo Tota
Location conc d dose conc
(µg/m3 r HQ r HQ l HQ
(µg/m3) (µg/m3) (µg/m3)
)
Blackburn 7713.90 1535.07 268.64 767.53 6.72 19.19 25.90
Woodlands 1544.30 307.32 53.78 153.66 1.34 3.84 5.19
Prestondale 1316.50 261.98 45.85 130.99 1.15 3.27 4.42
Herrwood Park 825.80 164.33 28.76 82.17 0.72 2.05 2.77
Umdloti Clinic 632.80 125.93 22.04 62.96 0.55 1.57 2.13
Umdloti 613.60 122.11 21.37 61.05 0.53 1.53 2.06
Umhlanga Ridge 450.40 89.63 15.69 44.81 0.39 1.12 1.51
Umhlanga 406.90 80.97 14.17 40.49 0.35 1.01 1.37
Waterloo 317.80 63.24 11.07 31.62 0.28 0.79 1.07
Somerset Park 302.00 60.10 10.52 30.05 0.26 0.75 1.01
Mount Edgecombe 279.30 55.58 9.73 27.79 0.24 0.69 0.94
Umhlanga Rocks 176.80 35.18 6.16 17.59 0.15 0.44 0.59
Centenary Park 93.70 18.65 3.26 9.32 0.08 0.23 0.31
Rockford 57.00 11.34 1.99 5.67 0.05 0.14 0.19
Mount Edgecombe 56.60 11.26 1.97 5.63 0.05 0.14 0.19
La Lucia 55.60 11.06 1.94 5.53 0.05 0.14 0.19
20
North Coast Family Medical Centre Russom
51.10 10.17 1.78 5.08 0.04 0.13 0.17
St
Greenbury 50.70 10.09 1.77 5.04 0.04 0.13 0.17
Southgate 49.20 9.79 1.71 4.90 0.04 0.12 0.17
Hamptons High 35.80 7.12 1.25 3.56 0.03 0.09 0.12
Stanmore 33.60 6.69 1.17 3.34 0.03 0.08 0.11
Woodview 33.60 6.69 1.17 3.34 0.03 0.08 0.11
Rainham 31.30 6.23 1.09 3.11 0.03 0.08 0.11
Glen Anil 29.20 5.81 1.02 2.91 0.03 0.07 0.10
Eastbury 27.70 5.51 0.96 2.76 0.02 0.07 0.09
Mount Moriah 27.40 5.45 0.95 2.73 0.02 0.07 0.09
Glen Ashley 27.30 5.43 0.95 2.72 0.02 0.07 0.09
Riet River 25.80 5.13 0.90 2.57 0.02 0.06 0.09
Dalefarm 21.80 4.34 0.76 2.17 0.02 0.05 0.07
Clayfield 20.50 4.08 0.71 2.04 0.02 0.05 0.07
Stonebridge 15.90 3.16 0.55 1.58 0.01 0.04 0.05
Longcroft 15.50 3.08 0.54 1.54 0.01 0.04 0.05
21
infiltration factor of 65% for the calculation of Indoor concentration
Average
conc HQ HQ HQ
(µg/m3) (µg/m3) (µg/m3)
(µg/m3)
Blackburn 7713.90 1535.07 498.90 767.53 12.47 19.19 31.66
Woodlands 1544.30 307.32 99.88 153.66 2.50 3.84 6.34
Prestondale 1316.50 261.98 85.14 130.99 2.13 3.27 5.40
Herrwood Park 825.80 164.33 53.41 82.17 1.34 2.05 3.39
Umdloti Clinic 632.80 125.93 40.93 62.96 1.02 1.57 2.60
Umdloti 613.60 122.11 39.68 61.05 0.99 1.53 2.52
Umhlanga Ridge 450.40 89.63 29.13 44.81 0.73 1.12 1.85
Umhlanga 406.90 80.97 26.32 40.49 0.66 1.01 1.67
Waterloo 317.80 63.24 20.55 31.62 0.51 0.79 1.30
Somerset Park 302.00 60.10 19.53 30.05 0.49 0.75 1.24
Mount Edgecombe 279.30 55.58 18.06 27.79 0.45 0.69 1.15
Umhlanga Rocks 176.80 35.18 11.43 17.59 0.29 0.44 0.73
Centenary Park 93.70 18.65 6.06 9.32 0.15 0.23 0.38
Rockford 57.00 11.34 3.69 5.67 0.09 0.14 0.23
Mount Edgecombe 56.60 11.26 3.66 5.63 0.09 0.14 0.23
La Lucia 55.60 11.06 3.60 5.53 0.09 0.14 0.23
Greenbury 50.70 10.09 3.28 5.04 0.08 0.13 0.21
Southgate 49.20 9.79 3.18 4.90 0.08 0.12 0.20
22
Hamptons High 35.80 7.12 2.32 3.56 0.06 0.09 0.15
Stanmore 33.60 6.69 2.17 3.34 0.05 0.08 0.14
Woodview 33.60 6.69 2.17 3.34 0.05 0.08 0.14
Rainham 31.30 6.23 2.02 3.11 0.05 0.08 0.13
Glen Anil 29.20 5.81 1.89 2.91 0.05 0.07 0.12
Eastbury 27.70 5.51 1.79 2.76 0.04 0.07 0.11
Mount Moriah 27.40 5.45 1.77 2.73 0.04 0.07 0.11
Glen Ashley 27.30 5.43 1.77 2.72 0.04 0.07 0.11
Riet River 25.80 5.13 1.67 2.57 0.04 0.06 0.11
Dalefarm 21.80 4.34 1.41 2.17 0.04 0.05 0.09
Clayfield 20.50 4.08 1.33 2.04 0.03 0.05 0.08
Stonebridge 15.90 3.16 1.03 1.58 0.03 0.04 0.07
Longcroft 15.50 3.08 1.00 1.54 0.03 0.04 0.06
For the 21-years age group, a decrease in HQs was observed when the deposited fractions,
indoor/outdoor hours, and infiltration factor were taken into account, as expected (Tables 10 and 11).
Similar to the 3-months and 9-years age groups, there still appeared to be risks for non-cancer health
effects, which increased when the infiltration factor increased from 35% (Table 10) to 65% (Table 11).
23
infiltration factor of 35% for the calculation of indoor concentration
Averag Deposite Indoor Outdoo

Indoor Outdoo Tota
Location e conc d dose conc r conc
HQ r HQ l HQ
(µg/m3) (µg/m3) (µg/m3) (µg/m3)
Blackburn 7713.90 1352.25 378.63 281.72 9.47 7.04 16.51
Woodlands 1544.30 270.72 75.80 56.40 1.90 1.41 3.30
Prestondale 1316.50 230.78 64.62 48.08 1.62 1.20 2.82
Herrwood Park 825.80 144.76 40.53 30.16 1.01 0.75 1.77
Umdloti Clinic 632.80 110.93 31.06 23.11 0.78 0.58 1.35
Umdloti 613.60 107.56 30.12 22.41 0.75 0.56 1.31
Umhlanga Ridge 450.40 78.96 22.11 16.45 0.55 0.41 0.96
Umhlanga 406.90 71.33 19.97 14.86 0.50 0.37 0.87
Waterloo 317.80 55.71 15.60 11.61 0.39 0.29 0.68
Somerset Park 302.00 52.94 14.82 11.03 0.37 0.28 0.65
Mount Edgecombe 279.30 48.96 13.71 10.20 0.34 0.26 0.60
Umhlanga Rocks 176.80 30.99 8.68 6.46 0.22 0.16 0.38
Centenary Park 93.70 16.43 4.60 3.42 0.11 0.09 0.20
Rockford 57.00 9.99 2.80 2.08 0.07 0.05 0.12
Mount Edgecombe 56.60 9.92 2.78 2.07 0.07 0.05 0.12
La Lucia 55.60 9.75 2.73 2.03 0.07 0.05 0.12
Greenbury 50.70 8.89 2.49 1.85 0.06 0.05 0.11
Southgate 49.20 8.62 2.41 1.80 0.06 0.04 0.11
Hamptons High 35.80 6.28 1.76 1.31 0.04 0.03 0.08
24
Stanmore 33.60 5.89 1.65 1.23 0.04 0.03 0.07
Woodview 33.60 5.89 1.65 1.23 0.04 0.03 0.07
Rainham 31.30 5.49 1.54 1.14 0.04 0.03 0.07
Glen Anil 29.20 5.12 1.43 1.07 0.04 0.03 0.06
Eastbury 27.70 4.86 1.36 1.01 0.03 0.03 0.06
Mount Moriah 27.40 4.80 1.34 1.00 0.03 0.03 0.06
Glen Ashley 27.30 4.79 1.34 1.00 0.03 0.02 0.06
Riet River 25.80 4.52 1.27 0.94 0.03 0.02 0.06
Dalefarm 21.80 3.82 1.07 0.80 0.03 0.02 0.05
Clayfield 20.50 3.59 1.01 0.75 0.03 0.02 0.04
Stonebridge 15.90 2.79 0.78 0.58 0.02 0.01 0.03
Longcroft 15.50 2.72 0.76 0.57 0.02 0.01 0.03
25
Table 11: Non-cancer HQs calculated from the exposure to predicted PM2.5 levels from
Table 1 based on the pulmonary deposited dose for the 21-years age group, using
an infiltration factor of 65% for the calculation of indoor concentration
Average
conc HQ HQ HQ
(µg/m3) (µg/m3) (µg/m3)
(µg/m3)
Blackburn 7713.90 1352.25 703.17 281.72 17.58 7.04 24.62
Woodlands 1544.30 270.72 140.77 56.40 3.52 1.41 4.93
Prestondale 1316.50 230.78 120.01 48.08 3.00 1.20 4.20
Herrwood Park 825.80 144.76 75.28 30.16 1.88 0.75 2.64
Umdloti Clinic 632.80 110.93 57.68 23.11 1.44 0.58 2.02
Umdloti 613.60 107.56 55.93 22.41 1.40 0.56 1.96
Umhlanga Ridge 450.40 78.96 41.06 16.45 1.03 0.41 1.44
Umhlanga 406.90 71.33 37.09 14.86 0.93 0.37 1.30
Waterloo 317.80 55.71 28.97 11.61 0.72 0.29 1.01
Somerset Park 302.00 52.94 27.53 11.03 0.69 0.28 0.96
Mount Edgecombe 279.30 48.96 25.46 10.20 0.64 0.26 0.89
Umhlanga Rocks 176.80 30.99 16.12 6.46 0.40 0.16 0.56
Centenary Park 93.70 16.43 8.54 3.42 0.21 0.09 0.30
Rockford 57.00 9.99 5.20 2.08 0.13 0.05 0.18
Mount Edgecombe 56.60 9.92 5.16 2.07 0.13 0.05 0.18
La Lucia 55.60 9.75 5.07 2.03 0.13 0.05 0.18
Greenbury 50.70 8.89 4.62 1.85 0.12 0.05 0.16
Southgate 49.20 8.62 4.48 1.80 0.11 0.04 0.16
26
Hamptons High 35.80 6.28 3.26 1.31 0.08 0.03 0.11
Stanmore 33.60 5.89 3.06 1.23 0.08 0.03 0.11
Woodview 33.60 5.89 3.06 1.23 0.08 0.03 0.11
Rainham 31.30 5.49 2.85 1.14 0.07 0.03 0.10
Glen Anil 29.20 5.12 2.66 1.07 0.07 0.03 0.09
Eastbury 27.70 4.86 2.53 1.01 0.06 0.03 0.09
Mount Moriah 27.40 4.80 2.50 1.00 0.06 0.03 0.09
Glen Ashley 27.30 4.79 2.49 1.00 0.06 0.02 0.09
Riet River 25.80 4.52 2.35 0.94 0.06 0.02 0.08
Dalefarm 21.80 3.82 1.99 0.80 0.05 0.02 0.07
Clayfield 20.50 3.59 1.87 0.75 0.05 0.02 0.07
Stonebridge 15.90 2.79 1.45 0.58 0.04 0.01 0.05
Longcroft 15.50 2.72 1.41 0.57 0.04 0.01 0.05
It should be noted that the HQs for the 9-years age group (Tables 8 and 9) are higher than those for the
21-years age group (Tables 10 and 11). This is explained by the higher number of hours spent outdoors
by the 9-years age group (12 h) compared to adults (4.8 h).
In certain cases, the values of indoor HQs were higher than those of the outdoor HQs. This was observed
for the 3-months (Tables 6 and 7) and 21-years (Tables 10 and 11) age groups, who spend the majority
of their time indoors. Indeed, indoor PM levels have the potential to exceed outdoor PM (Song et al.,
2015).
27
Overall, the results from Tables 6-11 show that, for all three age groups, there are risks for adverse non-
cancer health effects particularly for those living in Blackburn Estate, Blackburn, Reddam House
Umhlanga School, Gateway Montessori and Learning Centre, ML Sultan Blackburn Primary School,
Akeso Umhlanga Hospital, Woodlands and Prestondale.
The results above clearly indicate very high predicted levels of PM 2.5, which, in turn, result in high
probable risk for non-cancer effects. Taking into account the dose deposited in the pulmonary regions of
the lungs during inhalation better represents the real scenario, although probable risk for adverse health
effects is still evident albeit lower than what the risk is when the deposited fraction is not taken into
account.
It should be emphasised that these exposure levels were modelled and only indicate possible predictions
of adverse health effects. Using actual measured levels for the same time period would have resulted in
more accurate estimations of short-term adverse health effects in the surrounding communities in the
days immediately following the fire incident.
Estimating the burden of disease for multiple health endpoints is also a good risk estimate for short- or
long-term exposures to PM and was determined in section 3.
3. Relative Risk (RR), Excess Risk (ER) and Attributable Fraction
The health effects following exposure to PM2.5 can also be estimated using the relative risk (RR), which
is the ratio of the probability of an outcome in an exposed group to the probability of an outcome in an
unexposed group. An RR of > 1 indicates that the risk is increased in the exposed group, while a RR < 1
indicates that there is a decreased risk in the exposed group (Andrade, 2015). If the risks in the exposed
and unexposed groups are identical, then the RR will be equal to 1. The RR for health effects associated
with exposure to PM2.5 may be calculated using the equation below:
𝑅𝑅 = 𝑋 + 1 𝑋0 + 1 𝛽 (5)
where X is the deposited pulmonary fraction of PM2.5 for each age group at each location as indicated in
Tables 6-11, and X0 is the annual PM2.5 concentration of 19.18 µg/m³ for 2020 at Hambanathi, Tongaat,
as provided by the South African Air Quality Information System (SAAQIS: https://www.iqair.com/south-
africa/kwazulu-natal/ballito/hambanathi-tongaat). The annual PM2.5 concentration for the year during
which the fire incident occurred was thought to be the best indicator against which the predicted PM 2.5
could be compared.
β is the coefficient of the risk function (Chalvatzaki et al. 2019; Ostro and World Health, 2004) and is
provided by the US EPA for a variety of health endpoints, population groups and exposure periods (Table
12). In addition, the WHO has calculated the β coefficient for both cardiopulmonary mortality (0.15515
(95% CI: 0.0562–0.2541)) and lung cancer mortality (0.23218 (95% CI: 0.08563–0.37873)) (Ostro and
World Health 2004).
28
Table 12: Risk Estimates for PM2.5-dependent health outcomes calculated by the US EPA
(EPA 2021).
Reference as listed Population Exposure β Standard

Health-endpoint
in (EPA 2021) group period coefficient error
Older adults (65-99
Di et al., 2017b LT* 0.0070 0.0001
years)
Mortality Turner et al., 2016 Adults (30-99 years) LT 0.0058 0.00096
Infants (1-12
Woodruff et al., 2008 LT 0.0056 0.00454
months)
Hospital
Older adults (65-99
Admissions, Bell et al., 2015 ST** 0.00065 0.00009
years)
Cardiovascular
Emergency
Children older
Department Visits, Ostro et al., 2016 ST 0.00061 0.00042
adults (0-99 years)
Cardiovascular
Adults and older
Peters et al., 2001 ST 0.02412 0.00928
adults (18-99 years)
Pope III et al., 2006 0.00481 0.00199
Acute Myocardial
Sullivan et al., 2005 0.00198 0.00224
Infarction Adults and older
Zanobetti et al., 2009 ST 0.00225 0.00059
Zanobetti and Schwartz,
0.0053 0.00221
2006
Ensor et al., 2013 0.00638 0.00282
Adults and older
Cardiac Arrest Rosenthal et al., 2008 ST 0.00198 0.00502
adults (0-99 years)
Silverman et al., 2010 0.00392 0.00222
Kloog et al., 2012—ICD Older adults (65-99
Stroke LT 0.00343 0.00127
430-436 years)
Older adults (65-99
Hospital Bell et al., 2015 ST 0.00025 0.00012
years)
Admissions,
Children (0-18
Respiratory Ostro et al., 2009 ST 0.00275 0.00077
years)
0.00055 0.00027
Emergency Children, adults,
0.00097 0.00035
Department Visits, Krall et al., 2013 and older adults (0- ST
0.00083 0.00033
Respiratory 99 years)
0.00135 0.00059
Children (0-17
Asthma Onset Tetreault et al., 2016 LT 0.04367 0.00088
years)
Allergic Rhinitis Parker et al., 2009 Children (3-17) LT 0.02546 0.00962
Adults and older
Lung Cancer Gharibvand et al., 2017 LT 0.03784 0.01312
adults (>29 years)
Kioumourtzoglou et al., Older adults (>64
Alzheimer’s Disease LT 0.13976 0.01775
2016 years)
Kioumourtzoglou et al., Older adults (>64
Parkinson’s Disease LT 0.07696 0.01891
2016 years)
Children (6-17
Asthma Symptoms Rabinovitch et al., 2006 ST 0.00200 0.00148
years)
Minor Restricted Adults and older
Ostro and Rothschild, 1989 N/A 0.00741 0.0007
Activity Days adults (18-64 years)
Adults and older
Work Loss Days Ostro, 1987 N/A 0.0046 0.00036
* Long Term
** Short Term
N/A Not Applicable
29
The Excess Risk (ER) is calculated using the equation below:
𝐸𝑅 = 𝑅𝑅 − 1 (6)
Attributable Risk or Attributable Fraction (AF) is the risk of an event that can be directly attributed to a
particular risk factor (Andrade, 2015). While the RR determines the strength of the association between
a risk factor and a particular outcome, the AF determines the fraction of an outcome that can be attributed
to a particular risk factor. The attributable fraction estimates the proportion of deaths from a disease (e.g.,
lung cancer), which could have been avoided if the PM2.5 levels were reduced to the baseline or target
level of PM2.5 (Chalvatzaki et al,, 2019; Ostro and World Health, 2004) or, in the UPL Warehouse case,
if the PM2.5 levels remained at the levels prior to the fire incident. The AF is calculated as follows:
𝐴𝐹 = (7)
Values of AF close to 1 indicate that RR is high and that the risk factor is prevalent. Therefore, removal
of the risk factor will greatly reduce the number of the incidents in the population (Northridge, 1995). On
the other hand, values of AF close to 0 indicate that the RR is low or the factor is not prevalent (or both).
Removal of such a factor from the population will have little effect. In the case where the RR < 1, the AF
is negative (Laaksonen, 2010).
Using the β coefficients provided by the US EPA and the WHO, the RR for each health endpoint provided
in Table 12 (as provided by the US EPA) as well as the two endpoints provided by the WHO (i.e.
cardiopulmonary mortality and lung cancer mortality) for the 3-months, 9-years and 21-years age groups
were calculated at the two sites with high predicted PM2.5 levels, i.e. Blackburn Estate (Table 13) and
Reddam House Umhlanga School (Table 14). The pulmonary deposited doses as calculated from the
MPPD model for each age group for both these locations were used for the calculations.
Table 13 shows that, for each age group at the Blackburn Estate and for all the health endpoints listed
in Table 12, RR values > 1 were calculated, indicating that the fire incident at the warehouse increased
the risks of the health endpoints. However, the AFs of the deposited fractions to these health endpoints
were low. It must be noted that RRs close to 1 indicate no risk, so the only health endpoints of concern
are cardiopulmonary mortality and lung cancer mortality as the RRs for all three age groups for both these
health endpoints were above 1. Therefore, only the 95% confidence intervals (95%CI) for
cardiopulmonary mortality and lung cancer mortality were calculated. If both the RR and the 95% CI are
above 1, then individuals are at a higher risk of developing the adverse health outcome. For
cardiopulmonary mortality, the 95% CI ranged from 1.232 to 2.570, and for lung cancer mortality, the
95% CI ranged from 1.374 to 4.08, which are well above 1. Thereby, these two health endpoints are
above 1 for both RR and 95% CI and are therefore of concern.
30
Table 13: Relative risk (RR), excess risk (ER) and attributable fraction (AF) in Blackburn
Estate after exposure to predicted PM2.5 levels, for various health endpoints
3-months 9-years 21-years

Pulmonary deposited Pulmonary deposited Pulmonary deposited
Health endpoint
dose of 2269.42 µg/m³ dose of 2486.86 µg/m³ dose of 2190.69 µg/m³
RR ER AF RR ER AF RR ER AF
Cardiopulmonary
2.081 1.081 0.519 2.111 1.111 0.526 2.069 1.069 0.517
mortality
Lung cancer mortality 2.994 1.994 0.666 3.058 2.058 0.673 2.970 1.970 0.663
1.034 0.034 0.033 1.034 0.034 0.033 1.033 0.033 0.032
Mortality 1.028 0.028 0.027 1.028 0.028 0.028 1.028 0.028 0.027
1.027 0.027 0.026 1.027 0.027 0.027 1.027 0.027 0.026
Hospital Admissions,
1.003 0.003 0.003 1.003 0.003 0.003 1.003 0.003 0.003
Cardiovascular
Emergency
Department Visits, 1.003 0.003 0.003 1.003 0.003 0.003 1.003 0.003 0.003
Cardiovascular
1.121 0.121 0.108 1.123 0.123 0.110 1.120 0.120 0.107
1.023 0.023 0.022 1.023 0.023 0.023 1.023 0.023 0.022
Acute Myocardial
1.009 0.009 0.009 1.010 0.010 0.009 1.009 0.009 0.009
Infarction
1.011 0.011 0.011 1.011 0.011 0.011 1.011 0.011 0.010
1.025 0.025 0.025 1.026 0.026 0.025 1.025 0.025 0.025
1.031 0.031 0.030 1.031 0.031 0.030 1.030 0.030 0.029
Cardiac Arrest 1.009 0.009 0.009 1.010 0.010 0.009 1.009 0.009 0.009
1.019 0.019 0.018 1.019 0.019 0.019 1.019 0.019 0.018
Stroke 1.016 0.016 0.016 1.017 0.017 0.016 1.016 0.016 0.016
Hospital Admissions, 1.001 0.001 0.001 1.001 0.001 0.001 1.001 0.001 0.001
Respiratory 1.013 0.013 0.013 1.013 0.013 0.013 1.013 0.013 0.013
1.003 0.003 0.003 1.003 0.003 0.003 1.003 0.003 0.003
Emergency
1.005 0.005 0.005 1.005 0.005 0.005 1.005 0.005 0.005
Department Visits,
1.004 0.004 0.004 1.004 0.004 0.004 1.004 0.004 0.004
Respiratory
1.006 0.006 0.006 1.007 0.007 0.006 1.006 0.006 0.006
Asthma Onset 1.229 0.229 0.186 1.234 0.234 0.190 1.227 0.227 0.185
Allergic Rhinitis 1.128 0.128 0.113 1.130 0.130 0.115 1.127 0.127 0.113
Lung Cancer 1.196 0.196 0.164 1.200 0.200 0.167 1.194 0.194 0.163
Alzheimer’s Disease 1.935 0.935 0.483 1.960 0.960 0.490 1.925 0.925 0.481
Parkinson’s Disease 1.438 0.438 0.305 1.448 0.448 0.310 1.434 0.434 0.303
Asthma Symptoms 1.009 0.009 0.009 1.010 0.010 0.010 1.009 0.009 0.009
Minor Restricted
1.036 0.036 0.034 1.036 0.036 0.035 1.035 0.035 0.034
Activity Days
Work Loss Days 1.022 0.022 0.021 1.022 0.022 0.022 1.022 0.022 0.021
Similar to Table 13, Table 14 shows that, for each age group at the Reddam House Umhlanga School
and for all the health endpoints listed in Table 12, RR values > 1 were obtained, indicating that the fire
incident at the warehouse did, in fact, increase the risk of the population to develop these health
endpoints. For cardiopulmonary mortality, the 95% CI ranged from 1.232 to 2.570, and for lung cancer
mortality, the 95% CI ranged from 1.374 to 4.08, which are well above 1. Thereby, these two health
endpoints are above 1 for both RR and 95%CI and therefore of concern. Despite these higher risks, it
appears that the AF of the deposited fractions to these health endpoints are low. Again, it must be noted
that RRs close to 1 indicate no risk, so the health endpoints of concern are cardiopulmonary mortality
and lung cancer mortality.
31
This approach indicated that the HQs for deposited doses for three age groups were indeed lower than
that compared to ambient concentrations although non-cancer risks were still evident for 8 of the 101
sites analysed (Blackburn Estate, Blackburn, Reddam House Umhlanga School, Gateway Montessori
and Learning Centre, ML Sultan Blackburn Primary School, Akeso Umhlanga Hospital, Woodlands and
Prestondale). These risks, irrespective of whether time was spent indoors or outdoors reached maximum
HQ levels of 15.89 (indoors, 3-months age group), 31.09 (outdoors, 9-years age group) and 15.33
(indoors, 21-years age group) at the Blackburn Estate.
‘Estimation of disease burden’ was also conducted using these deposited doses and the RR indicated
possible risks to adverse health endpoints.
Table 14: Relative risk (RR), excess risk (ER) and attributable fraction (AF) at Reddam
House Umhlanga School after exposure to predicted PM2.5 levels, for various
health endpoints
3-months 9-years 21-years

Pulmonary deposited Pulmonary deposited Pulmonary deposited
Health endpoint
dose of 853.63 µg/m³ dose of 935.42 µg/m³ dose of 824.02 µg/m³
RR ER AF RR ER AF RR ER AF
Cardiopulmonary
1.788 0.788 0.441 1.814 0.814 0.449 1.778 0.778 0.438
mortality
Lung cancer mortality 2.386 1.386 0.581 2.437 1.437 0.590 2.367 1.367 0.577
1.027 0.027 0.026 1.027 0.027 0.027 1.026 0.026 0.026
Mortality 1.022 0.022 0.021 1.023 0.023 0.022 1.022 0.022 0.021
1.021 0.021 0.021 1.022 0.022 0.021 1.021 0.021 0.021
Hospital Admissions,
1.002 0.002 0.002 1.002 0.002 0.002 1.002 0.002 0.002
Cardiovascular
Emergency Department
1.002 0.002 0.002 1.002 0.002 0.002 1.002 0.002 0.002
Visits, Cardiovascular
1.095 0.095 0.086 1.097 0.097 0.088 1.094 0.094 0.086
1.018 0.018 0.018 1.019 0.019 0.018 1.018 0.018 0.018
Acute Myocardial
1.007 0.007 0.007 1.008 0.008 0.008 1.007 0.007 0.007
Infarction
1.008 0.008 0.008 1.009 0.009 0.009 1.008 0.008 0.008
1.020 0.020 0.020 1.021 0.021 0.020 1.020 0.020 0.019
1.024 0.024 0.024 1.025 0.025 0.024 1.024 0.024 0.023
Cardiac Arrest 1.007 0.007 0.007 1.008 0.008 0.008 1.007 0.007 0.007
1.015 0.015 0.015 1.015 0.015 0.015 1.015 0.015 0.014
Stroke 1.013 0.013 0.013 1.013 0.013 0.013 1.013 0.013 0.013
Hospital Admissions, 1.001 0.001 0.001 1.001 0.001 0.001 1.001 0.001 0.001
Respiratory 1.010 0.010 0.010 1.011 0.011 0.010 1.010 0.010 0.010
1.002 0.002 0.002 1.002 0.002 0.002 1.002 0.002 0.002
Emergency Department 1.004 0.004 0.004 1.004 0.004 0.004 1.004 0.004 0.004
Visits, Respiratory 1.003 0.003 0.003 1.003 0.003 0.003 1.003 0.003 0.003
1.005 0.005 0.005 1.005 0.005 0.005 1.005 0.005 0.005
Asthma Onset 1.178 0.178 0.151 1.182 0.182 0.154 1.176 0.176 0.150
Allergic Rhinitis 1.100 0.100 0.091 1.103 0.103 0.093 1.099 0.099 0.090
Lung Cancer 1.152 0.152 0.132 1.156 0.156 0.135 1.151 0.151 0.131
Alzheimer’s Disease 1.688 0.688 0.408 1.710 0.710 0.415 1.680 0.680 0.405
Parkinson’s Disease 1.334 0.334 0.250 1.344 0.344 0.256 1.331 0.331 0.248
Asthma Symptoms 1.008 0.008 0.007 1.008 0.008 0.008 1.007 0.007 0.007
Minor Restricted Activity
Days 1.028 0.028 0.027 1.029 0.029 0.028 1.028 0.028 0.027
Work Loss Days 1.017 0.017 0.017 1.018 0.018 0.017 1.017 0.017 0.017
32
These values only indicate the likelihood of adverse health effects, which does not mean that they will
occur. However, the risk assessment process selects the contaminants exhibiting the highest potential
for risks that should be further assessed.
The next section addresses possible adverse health effects calculated from actual measurements,
although these measurements were taken at the discrete receptor locations several weeks after the fire
incident.
HEALTH RISK ASSESSMENT USING MEASURED DATA PROVIDED BY SKYSIDE

PM10 and PM2.5 levels were measured several weeks after the fire incident at all the discrete receptor
locations. For example, the ambient levels at the Reddam House School and Blackburn community
discrete receptor locations were sampled from 26-Aug-21 to 21-Oct-21 and from 29-Sep-21 to 21-Oct-
21, respectively. Actual measurements were, however, taken from three sites a week after the fire started:
the East site, Makro carpark and Reddam House School; and provided for the health risk assessment.
1. Hazard Quotients (HQ)
 Reddam community
Table 15 shows the measured levels at Reddam School. In the absence of an established RfC/D for
PM2.5 or PM10, the non-cancer HQs were calculated using equations 1 and 2 as described earlier in this
report. For FADD, C represented the average of the PM10 or PM2.5 levels from the period 26 Aug to 21
Oct 2021, as shown in Table 15. For the SADD, C represented the South African 24 h PM10 or PM2.5
NAAQS of 75 μg/m³ or 40 μg/m³, respectively. For both the FADD and SADD, IR represented the
inhalation rate for adult females of 11.3 m3/day and BW represented body weight of 70 kg, as before.
Table 15: PM10 and PM2.5 continuous monitoring at Reddam House (continuous monitoring
with ATMOS)
Period Site Reference ID PM10 (µg/m³) PM2.5 (µg/m³)

28-Ju-21 Reddam ELS - 30
29-Jul-21 Reddam ELS - 22
01-Aug-21 Reddam ELS - 32
26-Aug-21 Reddam ELS 24 22
01-Sep-21 Reddam ELS 4 3
33
01-Oct-21 Reddam ELS 8 7
AVERAGE 10.185 10.762
ELS: early learning school
Table 16 shows that the HQs for PM10 and PM2.5 at Reddam School were well below the value of 1,
therefore indicating no risk of developing non-cancer adverse health effects.
Table 16: ADD, SADD and non-cancer HQ for PM10 and PM2.5 measurements (Reddam House
School)
PM10 PM2.5
ADD 1.644 1.737
SADD 12.107 6.457
HQ 0.14 0.27
34
 Blackburn community
Table 17 lists the measured values at the Blackburn community.
Table 17: PM10 and PM2.5 continuous monitoring at the Blackburn community (continuous
monitoring with ATMOS). The red, bold value on 13 October 2021 indicates PM 2.5
levels higher that the NAAQS of 40 µg/m³
Period Site Reference ID PM10 (µg/m³) PM2.5 (µg/m³)

29-Sep-21 Blackburn 9 9
30-Sep-21 Blackburn 11 5
01-Oct-21 Blackburn 22 19
AVERAGE 16.435 13.652
Table 18 shows that the HQs for PM10 and PM2.5 at the Blackburn community were well below the
value of 1, indicating no risk of developing non-cancer adverse health effects.
Table 18: ADD, SADD and non-cancer HQs for PM10 and PM2.5 measurements at the
Blackburn community
PM10 PM2.5
ADD 2.653 2.204
SADD 12.107 6.457
HQ 0.22 0.34
35
 East Site community
Table 19 lists the measured values at the East Site community.
Table 19: PM2.5 continuous monitoring at the East Site community (continuous monitoring
with ATMOS)
Period Site Reference ID PM2.5 (µg/m³)

21-Jul-21 East Site 122
01-Aug-21 East Site 35
AVERAGE 47.875
Table 20 shows that the HQ for PM2.5 at the East Site community were above the value of 1, indicating
a possible risk of developing non-cancer adverse health effects.
Table 20: ADD, SADD and non-cancer HQs for PM2.5 measurements at the East Site
community
PM2.5
ADD 7.728
SADD 6.457
HQ 1.20
36
 Makro car park community
Table 21 lists the measured values at the Makro car park community.
Table 21: PM2.5 continuous monitoring at the Makro car park community (continuous
monitoring with ATMOS)
Period Site Reference ID PM2.5 (µg/m³)

22-Jul-21 Makro car park 38
AVERAGE 15.833
Table 22 shows that the HQ for PM2.5 at the Makro car park community were well below the value of 1,
indicating no risk of developing non-cancer adverse health effects.
Table 22: ADD, SADD and non-cancer HQs for PM2.5 measurements at the Makro car park
community
PM2.5
ADD 2.556
SADD 6.457
HQ 0.40
2. Relative Risk (RR), Excess Risk (ER) and Attributable Mortality
2.1. Exposure to PM2.5
 Reddam community
The RR, ER and AF for the Reddam and Blackburn communities were calculated using equations 5 – 7
from earlier in this report, and the β coefficients provided by the US EPA and the WHO. For equation 5,
X is the average concentration of PM2.5 for the measured period in Table 15 (10.762 µg/m3) and X0 is
the annual PM2.5 concentration of 19.18 µg/m³ for 2020 at Hambanathi, Tongaat, as provided by the
South African Air Quality Information System (https://www.iqair.com/south-africa/kwazulu-
natal/ballito/hambanathi-tongaat).
Table 23 shows that, for all the health endpoints listed in Table 12, RR values of either ≤ 1 were
calculated, indicating that the levels of PM2.5 from the fire incident at the warehouse decreased over time
and that, therefore, exposure to these levels may not contribute to an increase in the risk of developing
these adverse health endpoints. In addition, as expected, the AF values were negative, correlating with
the low RR values and indicating no increased attributable risk to adverse health effects due to the fire
incident over time.
37
Table 23: Relative risk (RR), Excess risk (ER) and attributable fraction (AF) to various health
endpoints after exposure to actual measured PM2.5 levels in the Reddam House
community
Health endpoint RR ER AF
Cardiopulmonary mortality 0.920 -0.080 -0.087
Lung cancer mortality 0.882 -0.118 -0.134
0.996 -0.004 -0.004
Mortality 0.997 -0.003 -0.003
0.997 -0.003 -0.003
Hospital Admissions, Cardiovascular 1.000 0.000 0.000
Emergency Department Visits, Cardiovascular 1.000 0.000 0.000
0.987 -0.013 -0.013
0.997 -0.003 -0.003
Acute Myocardial Infarction 0.999 -0.001 -0.001
0.999 -0.001 -0.001
0.997 -0.003 -0.003
0.997 -0.003 -0.003
Cardiac Arrest 0.999 -0.001 -0.001
0.998 -0.002 -0.002
Stroke 0.998 -0.002 -0.002
1.000 0.000 0.000
Hospital Admissions, Respiratory
0.999 -0.001 -0.001
1.000 0.000 0.000
0.999 -0.001 -0.001
Emergency Department Visits, Respiratory
1.000 0.000 0.000
0.999 -0.001 -0.001
Asthma Onset 0.977 -0.023 -0.024
Allergic Rhinitis 0.986 -0.014 -0.014
Lung Cancer 0.980 -0.020 -0.021
Alzheimer’s Disease 0.927 -0.073 -0.078
Parkinson’s Disease 0.959 -0.041 -0.042
Asthma Symptoms 0.999 -0.001 -0.001
Minor Restricted Activity Days 0.996 -0.004 -0.004
Work Loss Days 0.998 -0.002 -0.002
38
 Blackburn community
Following the same approach as for the Reddam community, the RR, ER and AF for the Blackburn
community were calculated using equations 4, 5 and 6. For equation 4, X was the average concentration
of PM2.5 for the measured period in Table 17 (13.652 µg/m3). Similar to Table 23, Table 24 indicates no
increased attributable risk to adverse health effects due to the fire incident confirmed by the low RRs and
negative AFs.
Table 24: Relative risk (RR), excess risk (ER) and attributable fraction (AF) to various health
endpoints after exposure to actual measured PM2.5 levels in the Blackburn
community
RR ER AF
0.998 -0.002 -0.002
Mortality 0.998 -0.002 -0.002
0.998 -0.002 -0.002
0.992 -0.008 -0.008
0.998 -0.002 -0.002
Acute Myocardial Infarction 0.999 -0.001 -0.001
0.999 -0.001 -0.001
0.998 -0.002 -0.002
0.998 -0.002 -0.002
Cardiac Arrest 0.999 -0.001 -0.001
0.999 -0.001 -0.001
Stroke 0.999 -0.001 -0.001
1.000 0.000 0.000
0.999 -0.001 -0.001
1.000 0.000 0.000
1.000 0.000 0.000
1.000 0.000 0.000
1.000 0.000 0.000
Asthma Onset 0.986 -0.014 -0.014
Lung Cancer 0.988 -0.012 -0.012
Asthma Symptoms 0.999 -0.001 -0.001
Work Loss Days 0.999 -0.001 -0.001
39
 East Site community
The RR, ER and AF for the East Site community were also calculated. For equation 4, X was the average
concentration of PM2.5 for the measured period in Table 19 (47.875 µg/m3). A possible risk to developing
cardiopulmonary mortality and lung cancer mortality may be probable due to the RRs being slightly higher
than 1 and the AFs having positive values. The 95%CIs did include the value of 1 i.e. 95%CI for
cardiopulmonary mortality was between 1.051 and 1.252 and the 95%CI for lung cancer mortality was
between 1.079 and 1.398 thereby further indicating probable risk.
endpoints after exposure to actual measured PM2.5 levels in the East Site
community
RR ER AF
Cardiopulmonary mortality 1.147 0.147 0.128
Lung cancer mortality 1.228 0.228 0.186
1.006 0.006 0.006
Mortality 1.005 0.005 0.005
1.005 0.005 0.005
1.022 0.022 0.021
1.004 0.004 0.004
Acute Myocardial Infarction 1.002 0.002 0.002
1.002 0.002 0.002
1.005 0.005 0.005
1.006 0.006 0.006
Cardiac Arrest 1.002 0.002 0.002
1.003 0.003 0.003
Stroke 1.003 0.003 0.003
1.000 0.000 0.000
1.002 0.002 0.002
1.000 0.000 0.000
1.001 0.001 0.001
1.001 0.001 0.001
1.001 0.001 0.001
Asthma Onset 1.039 0.039 0.038
Allergic Rhinitis 1.023 0.023 0.022
Lung Cancer 1.034 0.034 0.033
Alzheimer’s Disease 1.132 0.132 0.116
Parkinson’s Disease 1.070 0.070 0.066
Asthma Symptoms 1.002 0.002 0.002
Minor Restricted Activity Days 1.007 0.007 0.007
Work Loss Days 1.004 0.004 0.004
40
 Makro car park
The RR, ER and AF for the Makro car park community were also calculated. For equation 4, X was the
average concentration of PM2.5 for the measured period in Table 21 (15.833 µg/m3). The RR values are
all approximately 1, therefore exposure to these levels may not contribute to an increase in the risk of
developing these adverse health endpoints.
endpoints after exposure to actual measured PM2.5 levels in the Makro car park
community
RR ER AF
0.999 -0.001 -0.001
Mortality 0.999 -0.001 -0.001
0.999 -0.001 -0.001
0.996 -0.004 -0.004
0.999 -0.001 -0.001
Acute Myocardial Infarction 1.000 0.000 0.000
1.000 0.000 0.000
0.999 -0.001 -0.001
0.999 -0.001 -0.001
Cardiac Arrest 1.000 0.000 0.000
0.999 -0.001 -0.001
Stroke 0.999 -0.001 -0.001
1.000 0.000 0.000
1.000 0.000 0.000
1.000 0.000 0.000
1.000 0.000 0.000
1.000 0.000 0.000
1.000 0.000 0.000
Asthma Onset 0.992 -0.008 -0.008
Lung Cancer 0.993 -0.007 -0.007
Asthma Symptoms 1.000 0.000 0.000
Work Loss Days 0.999 -0.001 -0.001
Based on the HQ and RR estimations for measured PM2.5 levels, it appears that the East site shows a
probable risk for developing non-cancer health effects as well as risks for cardiopulmonary and lung
cancer mortality.
41
2.2. Exposure to PM10
 Reddam and Blackburn communities

The RR for all-cause mortality, following short-term exposure to PM10 is estimated using the equation
below:
𝑅𝑅 = exp [𝛽(𝑋 − 𝑋0)] (8)
where X is the average concentration of PM10 of the measured period in Table 15: 10.185 µg/m3 for
Reddam House and 16.435 µg/m3 for Blackburn (Table 17). X0 is the annual PM10 concentration of 33.9
µg/m³ for 2020 at Hambanathi, Tongaat, as provided by the South African Air Quality Information System
(https://www.iqair.com/south-africa/kwazulu-natal/ballito/hambanathi-tongaat). The coefficient of the risk
function, β, was calculated as 0.0008 (CI95%: 0.0006–0.0010) by the WHO for all-cause mortality to PM 10
(Chalvatzaki et al, 2019; Ostro and World Health 2004). ER and AF were calculated using equations 5
and 6, respectively.
The low RR and negative AF values in Table 27 indicate that the PM10 levels recorded after the fire
incident did not result in an increased attributable risk for all-cause mortality.
Table 27: Relative risk (RR), excess risk (ER) and attributable fraction (AF) in the Reddam
and Blackburn communities for all-cause mortality due to short-term exposure to
PM10
Reddam Blackburn
β 0.0008 0.0008
RR 0.981 0.986
ER -0.019 -0.014
AF -0.019 -0.014
3. Trace metal concentrations
Trace metal concentrations from the filters collected at the Reddam and Blackburn communities were not
provided. Trace metal concentrations were only available for the North and East sites of the warehouse.
These data were used for further non-cancer HQ calculations for exposure to metals as shown below.
The filter with the highest elemental concentration was selected for further calculations to represent the
‘worst-case’ scenario as risk assessments are generally based on more conservative estimates (OECD,
1999). For each filter, an average daily dose (ADD) for an adult female was calculated using equation 2.
For each element, the ADD was divided by the established inhalation-derived RfD, if available, to obtain
the non-cancer HQ. If the inhalation-derived RfD was not available, then the oral-derived RfD was
selected. Table 28 shows the RfDs used for each element to calculate the HQ. Only RfDs/Cs derived by
the US EPA IRIS programme (https://cfpub.epa.gov/ncea/iris/search/index.cfm) were selected as the
studies used to derive these reference levels have been subjected to rigorous peer-review. For crystalline
silica, the levels provided by the EPA’s Office of Environmental Health Hazard Assessment OEHHA were
selected (OEHHA 2005).
42
Table 28: RfDs selected for each element for calculation of the HQ
Element RfD (mg/kg.day)

Aluminium# 4E-04*
Arsenic 0.005*
Boron 0.2*
Barium 0.2*
Calcium” 0.001*
Chromium^ 1.6E-05
Iron 0.7*
Copper NA
Potassium` 0.002*
Magnesium NA
Manganese° 8.07E-06
Sodium^^ 0.03*
Phosphorus”” 2-05*
Sulphur NA
Silicon~ 4.8E-4
Strontium 0.6*
Titanium NA
Vanadium## 0.009*
Zinc 0.3*
NA = No oral or inhalation RfCs/Ds available;
*Oral-derived RfDs;
# An RfD for aluminium phosphide was selected;
“ An RfD for calcium cyanide was selected;
^ The inhalation-derived RfC of 1 x 10-4 mg/m3 for Cr(VI) particulates was selected.
The RfD was then derived from this RfC using an inhalation rate for adult females
of 11.3 mg/m3 and a body weight of 70 kg.
` An RfD for potassium cyanide was selected as an RfD of potassium alone is not
available
° An inhalation-derived RfC for Mn is 5 x 10-5 mg/m3 according to the US EPA IRIS
database. The RfD was then derived from this RfC using an inhalation rate for adult
females of 11.3 mg/m3 and a body weight of 70 kg.
^^ An RfD for sodium chlorite was selected;
“” An RfD for white phosphorous was selected;
~ An inhalation-derived RfC of 0.003 mg/m3 for environmental exposure to
respirable crystalline was selected as recommended by the OEHHA (OEHHA
2005). The RfD was then derived from this RfC using an inhalation rate for adult
females of 11.3 mg/m3 and a body weight of 70 kg.
## An RfD/C for vanadium is currently not available. An IRIS Assessment for
Inhalation (or Oral) Exposure to Vanadium and Compounds is currently at Step 1
i.e., Scoping and Problem Formulation, May 2021
(https://cfpub.epa.gov/ncea/iris2/chemicalLanding.cfm?substance_nmbr=1562#tab-
2 and
https://cfpub.epa.gov/ncea/iris2/chemicalLanding.cfm?substance_nmbr=1521).
Therefore, the current RfD for vanadium pentoxide was selected.
43
3.1. Trace metal concentrations at the North site
Table 29 shows the highest elemental levels identified on the TSP filters at the North site of the
warehouse and their associated HQs. HQs of > 1 were calculated for aluminium, calcium, potassium,
manganese, phosphorus and silicon, indicating a risk for developing adverse health effects due to short
term exposure. These results need to be interpreted with caution as only one filter per day was analysed
at each site and only the highest elemental levels (each representing one day) are shown, which may not
be representative of the true elemental air concentrations.
Although aluminium and calcium appear to be non-toxic, it should be noted that these elements could be
associated with other more toxic compounds, particularly within pesticide/herbicide formulations, e.g.
calcium cyanide. The inhalation derived RfC for manganese is low (5 x 10 -5 mg/m3) according to the US
EPA IRIS database; this is due to its adverse effect on the nervous system, leading to the impairment of
neurobehavioral function. This low reference level results in a calculated HQ of 20 as shown in Table 23.
Manganese was predicted to be present in the pesticides at a concentration of 361 kmol (Burger et al.,
2021). This mass was estimated from the chemical formulations of the active ingredients in the pesticides
and can therefore not be used to correctly estimate the mass of manganese that was originally emitted
from the pesticides during the fire incident. Although silicon was quantified on the TSP filters, it is unknown
in which form it was present. Again, Burger et al. (2021) estimated the total silicon concentration in the
pesticides to be 73 kmol, although this cannot be correlated to the silicon quantified on the TSP filters. It
is assumed that the silicon quantified on the TSP filters is a constituent of the mineralogical composition
of beach particulates.
Table 29: Elemental composition and calculated HQs of total suspended particle (TSP)
filters for 17-23 July 2021 at the North site. Only the highest elemental levels are
shown.
Date and filter containing highest Elemental levels HQ

Element
levels of element (µg/m3)
Aluminium 23-Jul-21, S3770 323 130.35
Arsenic 17-Jul-21, S3853 4 0.13
Boron 23-Jul-21, S3770 90 0.07
Barium 22-Jul-21, S3833 14 0.01
Calcium 23-Jul-21, S3770 558 90.08
Copper 17-Jul-21, S3853 16 NA
Iron 21-Jul-21, S3856 20 0.004
Potassium 22-Jul-21, S3833 28 2.26
Magnesium 23-Jul-21, S3770 109 NA
Manganese 17-Jul-21, S3853 1 20.00
Sodium 22-Jul-21, S3833 65 0.35
Phosphorus 19-Jul-21, S3855 5 40.36
Sulphur 17-Jul-21, S3853 9 NA
Silicon 23-Jul-21, S3770 15 5.04
Strontium 23-Jul-21, S3770 7 0.002
Titanium 23-Jul-21, S3770 10 NA
Vanadium 17-Jul-21, S3853 3 0.05
Zinc 22-Jul-21, S3833 11 0.01
NA = RfDs/Cs not available
44
3.2. Trace metal concentrations at the East Site
Trace metal concentrations from PM10 and PM2.5 filters collected at the East site were provided. The
levels in each of these filters are discussed below.
 PM10 filters
Table 30 shows the highest elemental levels identified on the PM10 filters at the East site and their
associated HQs. HQs of > 1 were calculated for aluminium, calcium, chromium, potassium, manganese,
phosphorous and silicon, indicating a probable risk of developing adverse health effects
Table 30: Elemental composition and calculated HQs of PM10 filters for 24 Jul – 28 Aug 2021
at the East site
Elemental levels
Element Date and filter containing highest levels of element HQ
(µg/m3)
Aluminium 23-Aug-21, S4084 796 321.24
Arsenic* 28-Aug-21, S4091 1 0.03
Boron 23-Aug-21, S4084 239 0.19
Barium 25-Jul-21, S3821 91 0.07
Calcium 23-Aug-21, S4084 1542 248.92
Chromium** 24-Jul-21, S3820 2 20.1
Iron 18-Aug-21, S4079 47 0.01
Copper 25-Aug-21, S4087 3 NA
Potassium 25-Jul-21, S3821 73 5.9
Magnesium 23-Aug-21, S4084 274 NA
Manganese 18-Aug-21, S4079 1 20
Sodium 25-Jul-21, S3821 154 0.83
Phosphorus 23-Aug-21, S4084 3 24.21
Sulphur 19-Aug-21, S4080 7 NA
Silicon 23-Aug-21, S4084 100 33.63
Strontium 23-Aug-21, S4084 17 0.005
Titanium 23-Aug-21, S4084 20 NA
Vanadium 23-Aug-21, S4084 1 0.02
Zinc 25-Jul-21, S3821 50 0.03
* Only one filter out of 9 showed an arsenic level above the limit of detection.
** Only 4 filters out of 22 showed chromium levels above the limit of detection.
45
 PM2.5 filters
With regards to the PM2.5 filters collected at the East site (Table 31), aluminium, boron, calcium,
manganese, phosphorus and silicon showed HQ values > 1, as observed in Table 30.
Table 31: Elemental composition and calculated HQs of PM2.5 filters for 21 Jul – 10 Aug 2021
at the East site
Elemental levels
Element Date and filter containing highest levels of element HQ
(µg/m3)
Aluminium 28-Jul-21, P-7037174 5 2.02
Arsenic* 21-Jul-21, P-7037182 1 0.03
Boron 01-Aug-21, P-7037169 2 1.61
Calcium 06-Aug-21, P-7037164 12 1.9
Copper 28-Jul-21, P-7037174 2 NA
Iron 22-Jul-21, P-7037181 10 0.002
Potassium 27-Jul-21, P-7037171 3 0.24
Magnesium 06-Aug-21, P-7037164 3 NA
Manganese 22-Jul-21, P-7037181 1 20
Phosphorus 27-Jul-21, P-7037171 2 16.14
Sulphur 04-Aug-21, P-7037166 4 NA
Silicon 28-Jul-21, P-7037174 14 4.71
Vanadium 28-Jul-21, P-7037174 1 0.02
Zinc 21-Jul-21, P-7037182 1 0.005
* Only one filter out of 13 showed an arsenic level above the limit of detection.
Overall, the PM10 and PM2.5 levels that were measured several weeks post the fire incident indicate no
risk of developing non-cancer adverse health effects in the Reddam and Blackburn communities. In
addition, the estimation of disease burden indicates a lack of attributable risk of developing the adverse
health endpoints as a result of short-and long-term exposure to PM 2.5, or all-cause mortality as a result
of short-term PM10 exposure. With regard to the trace elemental composition of filters at the North and
East sites of the warehouse, the elements of concern are aluminium, calcium, manganese and
phosphorous, as the calculated HQs were > 1, indicating an increased probable risk of developing non-
cancer adverse health effects
SUMMARY AND RECOMMENDATIONS
This report presents calculated deposited fractions as a measure of internal dose of PM2.5. The calculation
of the deposited fraction was based on the number of hours spent indoors and outdoors, as well as the
outdoor infiltration factor. Using the calculated deposited fraction, a more realistic scenario was presented
for the calculation of non-cancer risks, where the combined primary and secondary particles.
46
The report describes the short- and long-term health effects of exposure to PM 2.5 and its constituent
contaminants generated from the fire at the UPL warehouse. The communities most affected from such
exposures are Blackburn and Reddam.
The recommendations therefore include:

1. The assessment of lung function to detect any increase in respiratory diseases as exposure to
high levels of PM2.5 is likely to increase the prevalence of respiratory health symptoms
2. A follow up of eye and skin diseases.
3. Conducting Biological monitoring for Blackburn and Reddam communities based on modelled
PM2.5 values and for the East side community based on measured PM2.5 values:
a. Liver and renal function.
b. Cholinesterase as effects monitoring for organophosphates.
c. Urinary 1-hydroxypyrene (1-OHP) as a metabolite marker of total exposure to possible
exposure by inhalation to PAHs (Yuan et al., 2015; Hansen et al., 2008) that were
identified by AIRSHED, as exposure to the constituent contaminants of PM 2.5, including
pesticides and metals, would also induce adverse health effects
Special attention to be paid to the sensitive populations (the elderly and those with pre-existing
cardiopulmonary problems) within these identified communities.
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51

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Human Health Risk Assessment:

Inhalation Risk to Atmospheric

Date Report Issued: 7 November 2022 (Revision 1)

Project Number: A19519

Order Number: UPL South Africa

Client Contact/s: On behalf of Mrs. V King (Metamorphosis Environmental Consultants)

Department of Employment and Labour AIA

Company Name: Apex Environmental cc

Physical Address: 40 Beechgate Crescent, Southgate Business Park, Umbogintwini, 4126

Postal Address: P.O. Box 2079, Amanzimtoti, 4125

Tel: +27 (0)31 9141004

Mr Sean Chester: Mr Kenneth W. Boyers:

Apex Environmental cc, Co Reg: CK 98/44018/23 VAT Reg: No 4330176167

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ................................................................................................ 9

Table 1: Toxicology based on the pollutants of greatest concern as identified

Confidential Page iii

Figure 28: Particulate matter 2.5 (PM2.5) isopleth distribution in relation to

1. AIA APPROVAL CERTIFICATE

AEGL Acute exposure guideline level

AIR Atmospheric impact report

FADD Field average daily dose

H2S Hydrogen sulphide

H2SO4 Sulphuric acid

HCA Hazardous chemical agent

HCl Hydrochloric acid / hydrogen chloride

HCN Hydrogen cyanide

HHRA Human health risk assessment

LOAEL Lowest-observed-adverse-effect level

MPPD Multiple-path particle dosimetry

MRL Maximum residue level

NAAQS National Ambient Air Quality Standard

NO2 Nitrogen dioxide

NOAEL No-observed-adverse-effect level

PAH Polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbon

PM2.5 Particulate matter with diameter ≤ 2.5 microns

PM10 Particulate matter with diameter ≤ 10 microns

ppb Parts per billion

ppm Parts per million

RfC Reference concentration

RfD Reference dose

SADD Safe average daily dose

SO2 Sulphur dioxide

SVOCs Semi-volatile organic compounds

TSP Total suspended particulates

US EPA United States Environmental Protection Agency

VOCs Volatile organic compounds

WHO World Health Organization

Confidential Page vii

Practicable with regard to:

a) the severity and scope of the hazard or risk concerned

A stressor is a chemical or biological agent, environmental condition, external stimulus, or

The HHRA report was compiled from the following documents:

1. As exposure to high concentrations of PM2.5 is associated with an increased risks of

Additionally, the following programmatic actions are recommended:

1.2 Affected area

The UPL Cornubia warehouse is located at 30 Umganu Road, Cornubia, approximately 18 km

Figure 1: UPL warehouse location within the surrounding land use

1.3 Conceptual site model

Figure 2: Conceptual site model, illustrating the source-pathway-receptor linkages associated

Figure 3: Windrose for Durban: 12 – 21 July 2021

Figure 4: Windrose for Durban: 12 – 31 August 2021

2. AIM AND OBJECTIVES

Specific objectives were: