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I

United States
Department of
Agriculture

Agricultural
WGEN: A Model for
Research
Service Generating Daily, , 3
ARS-8

August 1984 Weeither Variably


ABSTRACT Richardson, C. W.,
and D. A. Wright. 1984. WGEN: A
Model for Generating Daily Weather Variables.
U.S. Department of Agriculture, Agricultural
Research Service, ARS-8 83 p.
,

A computer simulation model called WGEN (Weather Generator)


that provides daily values for precipitation, maximum tempera-
ture, minimum temperature, and solar radiation is described.
The model accounts for the persistence of each variable, the
dependence among the variables, and the seasonal characteristics
of each variable. Its parameters are defined for locations in
the United States, enabling use of the model in the 48 contiguous
States without reference to actual data. Examples of model
applications are given, and weather data generated by the model
are compared with actual data.

KEYWORDS: weather, climate, precipitation, solar radiation,


temperature, simulation model, Markov chain

Copies of this publication are available from the National


Technical Information Service (NTIS), 5285 Port Royal Road,
Springfield, Va. 22161.

ARS has no additional copies for free distribution.


CONTENTS Introduction, 5

Model description, 5

Precipitation, 6

Temperature and solar radiation, 7

Precipitation and temperature correction, 10

The WGEN Program, 11

The WGEN PAR Program, 12

Results and discussion, 12

Summary, 14

Literature cited, 15

Tables, 16

Figures, 33

Appendixes, 35

Appendix A: Generation parameters, 35

Appendix B: Input data for WGEN, 59

Appendix C: The WGEN Program, 63

Appendix D: The WGEN PAR Program, 75


WGEN: A MODEL FOR GENERATING DAILY WEATHER
VARIABLES

C. W. Richardson and D. A. Wright—^

INTRODUCTION Daily weather data are required for many applications. Weather
data are frequently needed to aid in the design of hydraulic
structures; to evaluate the effects of watershed changes on
hydrology, water quality, or erosion; or to assess alternative
crop or range management strategies. Mathematical models of
the physical processes involved are often used to make these
evaluations. In addressing the response of these processes to
weather inputs, it is seldom sufficient to examine only responses
to observed weather events. Use of only observed sequences
gives a solution which is based on only one realization of the
weather process. For some locations no weather data are avail-
able to make the desired assessment. It is desirable to have
the capability of generating synthetic weather data with the
same statistical characteristics as the actual weather at the
location. Therefore, the purpose of this paper is to provide a
method for generating samples of daily weather variables.

A computer simulation model called WGEN (Weather Generator) has


been developed to generate daily values for precipitation,
maximum temperature, minimum temperature, and solar radiation.
The model is based on the procedure described by Richardson
(1981); however, several assumptions have been made that simplify
the use of the model. The model parameters that are required
to generate new sequences of the weather variables have been
determined for locations in the 48 contiguous States of the
United States and are given in appendix A.

Several other models have been developed for generating sequences


of daily weather variables (Jones et al 1972, Bond 1979, Nicks
.

and Harp 1980, Bruhn et al. 1980, Larsen and Pense 1981).
These models are based on sound statistical principles; however,
they lack the general applicability and ease of use that is
afforded by WGEN, and the model parameters given in the appendix.

MODEL DESCRIPTION WGEN provides daily generated values of precipitation (p)


maximum temperature (t ) minimum temperature (t
, . ) ,and
solar radiation (r) for^an n-year period at a given ?ocation.
The occurrence of rain on a given day has a major influence on
temperature and solar radiation for the day. The approach that
is used is to generate precipitation for a given day independently
of the other variables. Maximum temperature, minimum temperature,
and solar radiation are then generated according to whether a
wet day or dry day was previously generated. The model is
designed to preserve the dependence in time, the correlation
between variables, and the seasonal characteristics in actual
weather data for the location.

—^Agricultural engineer and computer programmer, respectively,


USDA-ARS, Grassland, Soil and Water Research Laboratory, P. 0.
Box, 748, Temple, TX 76503.

5
. .

Precipitation

The precipitation component of WGEN is a Markov chain-gamma


model. A first-order Markov chain is used to generate the
occurrence of wet or dry days. When a wet day is generated,
the two-parameter gamma distribution is used to generate the
precipitation amount.

With the first-order Markov chain model, the probability of


rain on a given day is conditioned on the wet or dry status of
the previous day. A wet day is defined as a day with 0.01 inch
of rain or more. Let P (W/W) be the probability of a wet day
,

on day i given a wet day on day i-1, and let P.(W/D) be the
probability of a wet day on day i given a dry Jay on day 1-1.
Then,

P^(D/W) = 1 - P^(W/W) (1)

P^(D/D) = 1 - P^(W/D)

where P,(D/W) and P.(D/D) are the probabilities of a dry day


given a wet day on Jay i-1 and the probability of a dry day
given a dry day on day 1-1, respectively. Therefore, the
transition probabilities are fully defined given P,(W/W) and
^
Pj^(W/D).

Several probability density functions have been used to describe


the distribution of rainfall amounts (Smith and Schreiber 1974,
Woolhlser and Roldan 1982). For this application, a distribution
with a minimum number of parameters was needed to minimize the
problem of defining the parameters for a large number of loca-
tions. Richardson (1982a) has shown the two-parameter gamma
distribution to be significantly better for describing daily
precipitation amounts than the simple one-parameter exponential
distribution. The density function of the two-parameter gamma
distribution is given by
p^-l e-p/P
f(p) = , p, a. p > 0 (2)
P“ r(a)
s

where f(p) is the density function of p, a and 3 are distribu-


tion parameters, r(a) is the gamma function of a, and e is the
base of natural logarithms. The a and B are shape and scale
parameters, respectively. For 0 < a < 1, f(p) decreases with
increasing p. The shape is appropriate for precipitation
amounts since small amounts occur more frequently than larger
amounts

The values of P(W/W), P(W/D), a, and 6 vary continuously during


the year for most locations. In WGEN, each of the four precipi-
tation parameters are constant for a given month but are varied
from month to month

6
.

The values of each of the four parameters were determined by


month for 139 stations in the United States, as shown in
figure 1 The parameters were defined using 20 years (1951-70)
.

of daily rainfall data for each station. The rainfall parameter


values are given for each of the 139 stations in table Al.
Rainfall parameters for other locations may be obtained by
interpolation of values given in the same table. The parameters
are used with a Markov chain generation procedure, and the
gamma generation procedure described by Haan (1977) to generate
daily precipitation values.

Temperature and Solar Radiation

The procedure that is used in WGEN for generating daily values


of t , t and r is that described by Richardson (1981)
. ,

The procedure is based on the weakly stationary generating


process given by Matalas (1967) The equation is .

Xj^(j) = Ax^_^(j) + Be^(j) (3)

where x-(j) is a 3 X 1 matrix for day i whose elements are


residuals of t (j = 1) t^^^ (j = 2) and r (j = 3)
, e is a
, , .

3X1 matrix or independent random components, and A and B are


3X3 matrices whose elements are defined such that the new
sequences have the desired serial-correlation and cross-
correlation coefficients. The A and B matrices are given by

(4)

T
BB = M (5)
o

where the superscripts -1 and T denote the inverse and transpose


of the matrix. M and M, are defined as
o 1

1 P^(l,2) Po(l,3)

Po(1.2) 1 P^(2,3)

Po(1.3) Po(2,3) 1

p^d) P^(l,2) p^dd)


p^(2,l) P^d) Pl(2,3)

P^O,l) P^(3d) P^(3)

7
. 1 .

where p (j,k) is the correlation coefficient between variables


j and k on the same day, p^(j,k) is the correlation coefficient
between variables j and k with variable k lagged 1 day with
respect to variable j, and p^(j) is the lag 1 serial-correlation
coefficient for variable j.

The correlation coefficients in equations (6) and (7) were


determined by season from 20 years of temperature and solar
radiation data for 31 locations in the United States (fig. 1).
The seasonal and regional patterns of the correlation coefficients
were described by Richardson (1982b) The seasonal and spatial .

variation in the correlation coefficients were relatively


small. If the small variations are neglected and the average
values of the correlation coefficients given by Richardson
(1982b) are used, the M and matrices become
o

"l.OOO 0.633 0 186~


.

M = 0.633 1.000 -0.193 (8)


o

_0.186 -0.193 1.000_

"0.621 0.445 0.087"

I—
II
0.563 0.674 -0.100 2/ (9)

.0.015 -0.091 0.251_

Using equations (4) and (5) the A and B matrices become

" -0.002“
0.567 0.086

A = 0.253 0.504 -0.050 (10)

-0.006 -0.039 0.244.

"0.781 0 0

B = 0.328 0.637 0 (11)

^0.238 -0.341 0.873.

The A and B matrices given in equations (10) and (11) are used
with equation (3) in WGEN to generate new sequences of the
residuals of t , t and r that are serially correlated and
. ,

cross-correlatei^wltS^?he correlations being constant at all


locations

—2 / The
off-diagonal elements were calculated but not reported by
Richardson (1982b)

8
,

The final daily generated values of t t and r are, . ,

determined by multiplying the residua5?^lemen?s generated with


equation (3) by a seasonal standard deviation and adding a
seasonal mean using the equation

ti(j) = X^Cj) * s^(j) + m^(j) (12)

where t,(j) is the daily value of t (j = 1) t (j = 2) , .

and r (j = 3), s.(j) is the standar^^Heviation anS^ ni,(j) is the


mean for day i. The values of m^(j) and s^(j) are conditioned
on the wet or dry status as determined from the precipitation
component of the model. By expressing equation (12) in terms
of the coefficient of variation (c = s/m) rather than the
standard deviation, the equation becomes

t^(j) = m^(j) [x^(j) • c^(j) + 1] (13)

The seasonal change in the means and coefficients of variation


may be described by

u^ = u + C cos (0.0172 (1 - T) ) , i = 1, ...» 365 (14)

where u. is the value of the m.(j) or c.(j) on day i, u is


mean of u., C is the amplitude of the harmonic, and T is the
position of the harmonic in days (fig. 2). Values of u, C,
and T must be determined for the mean and coefficient of varia-
tion of each weather variable (t t , r) and for the wet
, ,

or dry condition. These values were determined from the 20


years of daily weather data for the 31 locations and are giver
in tables 1-5. There were no detectable differences in the
means and coefficients of variation for t on wet or dry .

days; therefore, the values of u, C, and ? given in table 3


describe the seasonal variation in the mean and coefficient of
variation of t . for both wet or dry days,
min
Some of the parameters in tables 1-5 are strongly location
dependent while other parameters do not change significantly
with location. The values of T for all the descriptors of
temperature (means and coefficients of variation of t and
t , ) were near 200 days for all locations. Similarly, the T
vaiues for r were about 172 days (summer solstice) for all
locations. Therefore, in WGEN all the T values for temperature
are assumed to be 200 days, and all the T values for solar
radiation are assumed to be 172 days.

Most of the u and C values in tables 1-5 were location dependent.


The variable names that will be used for these parameters are
given in table 6. The variables are defined graphically in
figure 3. Contour maps for the parameters that had spatial
trends are shown in appendix A.

9
The map of u for the mean of t on dry days is shown in
figure Al. The amplitude (C) of^the mean of t for a given
^
location was not significantly different on we? or dry days.
The map of C for the mean of t (wet or dry) is given in
figure A2. The u’s for the coefficient of variation of t
are given in figure A3. The C*s for the coefficient of variation
of t are given in figure A4. The values in figure A4 are
negative because t is less variable during“ the summer when
insx
the mean t is greatest. The values of u and C for the
coef f icien?s^of variation of t were the same for either wet
, , max
or dry days.

The u values for the mean of t on wet days was significantly


less than for dry days and are mapped in figure A5. Maps of
the other parameters for t on wet days were not required
since they were not significantly different from the parameters
for t on dry days,
max
The maps of u and C for the means and coefficients of variation
of t .are shown in figures A6-A9. All these parameters had a
strong regional pattern.

The map of u for the mean of r on dry days is given in figure AlO.
Similar to t ,C for the mean of r was not significantly
different on wet or dry days. The map of C for the mean of r
(wet or dry) is given in figure All. The map of u for the mean
of r on wet days is given in figure A12.

The values of u and C for the coefficients of variation of r


given in table 5 showed no relationship to station location.
The variation in each of the four parameters among the 31
locations was assumed to be sampling error. In WGEN the value
of the four parameters are assumed to be constant at the average
values given in table 5.

Precipitation and Temperature Correction

For most locations, the data generated with these procedures


will have mean monthly precipitation and temperatures that are
very close to the means obtained from actual data. In some
cases, there will be differences caused by the temporal and
spatial smoothing that is inherent in the model or topographic
features of the location or other factors. Procedures have
been developed that provide for the correction of these differ-
ences if actual mean monthly values are available and the user
chooses to make these corrections. Use of the correction
options provides generated daily values that compare very
closely with the monthly means derived from the actual observa-
tions. Use of the correction procedure requires that the
actual monthly means for the variable to be corrected be input
to the generation program. Mean monthly precipitation and/or
temperatures for selected locations are available from many
sources, such as the Climatic Atlas of the United States (U.S.
Department of Commerce, 1968)
. .

The precipitation correction factor for a given month is calcu-


lated as the mean monthly precipitation from actual data divided
by the mean monthly precipitation theoretically generated with
the Markov chain-gamma model. The generated daily precipitation
amounts are multiplied by the precipitation correction factor
for the appropriate month to obtain a corrected precipitation
amount

The temperature correction may be based on either the actual


mean monthly temperature or mean maximum temperature and mean
minimum temperature, depending on which type of data are avail-
able for the location. For the actual mean monthly temperature,
the temperature correction factor is calculated as the differ-
ence between the actual mean monthly temperature for the
location and the mean monthly temperature theoretically generated
using the parameters for the location. The generated dally
maximum and minimum temperatures are both corrected by adding
the correction factor to the generated temperatures. When mean
monthly maximum and minimum temperatures are available, correc-
tion factors for maximum temperature and minimum temperature
are computed independently.

The WGEN Program

The WGEN program can be used to generate daily values of precipi-


tation, maximum temperature, minimum temperature, and solar
radiation. The inputs required for WGEN, input formats, and
the source of each input is given in appendix B. The Fortran
program of WGEN is given in appendix C. The program contains
two major options. If option 1 is chosen, the program will
generate daily values of p (inches) , t (°F)
, t . (°F)
, and
r (ly) for the number of years specifiet^by the user. If
option 2 is chosen, the program will read actual precipitation
supplied by the user and generate corresponding values of t ,

t . , and r. Option 2 is provided because frequently a user


wii? have a long record of actual precipitation data with
corresponding data for daily temperature or solar radiation.

Options are also provided that enable the user to correct


generated precipitation and temperature based on actual data.
The user may choose to (1) make no corrections, (2) correct
both precipitation and temperature, (3) correct only precipita-
tion, or (4) correct only temperature. The codes that are
required for the various options are given in the list of
inputs in appendix B.

The WGEN program will print daily values of the four variables.
A summary of the monthly and annual amounts will be printed at
the end of each year. At the end of the n-year run, the mean
monthly and mean annual amounts will be printed

11
The WGEN PAR Program

To generate weather data for a location outside the 48 contiguous


states, or to develop generation parameters for actual data
from a specific location, the WGEN PAR program given in appendix D
may be used. The WGEN PAR program reads daily values of p,
t , t , , and r and writes the generation parameters that are
requireS^Sy WGEN. The number of years of weather data required
to develop parameters representative of a particular location
vary with the climate. In general, at least 20 years of precipi-
tation and 10 years of temperature and radiation are required
Longer records of precipitation may be required for arid
locations

RESULTS AND The WGEN model has been subjected to extensive testing. The
DISCUSSION results will be illustrated by applying the model at five
locations with a wide variety of climates and comparing the
results with recorded data. The locations are Columbia, MO;
Boise, ID; Miami, FL; Phoenix, AZ; and Boston, MA. The rainfall
parameters were obtained from table Al, and the temperature and
solar radiation parameters were obtained from figures A1-A12
for each location. A 30-year sample of weather data was
generated for each location without correcting precipitation
and temperature based on actual monthly means.

Several statistics were selected in comparing the generated


weather data with observed data. The following statistics were
compared for each month and for the year:

1) Mean precipitation amount.


2) Mean number of wet days (p ^ 0.01 inches).
3) Mean run of wet days (maximum length of consecutive
wet days)
4) Mean number of days with p > 2.0 inches.
5) Mean daily solar radiation.
6) Mean daily maximum temperature.
7) Mean daily minimum temperature.
8) Mean monthly and annual maximum temperature.
9) Mean monthly and annual minimum temperature.
10) Mean number of days with t >
max
11) Mean number of days with t , < 32°F.
min
The results of the comparisons are given in tables 7-11.

The Markov chain-gamma model that was used for generating daily
precipitation amounts gave results that compared well with the
observed data. The precipitation amounts and the seasonal
distribution of precipitation were accurately represented in
the generated data. No significant differences occurred between
the observed and generated mean monthly or annual precipitation
amounts for any of the five locations. The mean number of wet

12
days per month was also accurately simulated at all five
locations. The persistence of wet days as indicated by the
maximum length of consecutive wet days for each month and the
frequency of occurrence of daily precipitation in excess of
2.0 inches also compared favorably with the observed data.

The mean daily solar radiation generated with WGEN was not
significantly different from the observed data for any month at
any of the five locations.

The daily maximum and minimum temperature generation procedure


also produced results that are good representations of the
observed data. Mean daily maximum and mean daily minimum
temperatures by month were significantly different in only 20
of the 130 cases. In most instances, the differences were due
to the actual data not having a simple sinusodial shape as
assumed in the model (fig. 3). This problem can be corrected
by use of the local average temperature correction previously
described.

The statistics that reflect temperature extremes did not compare


as well with the observed data as did the other statistics.
This result could be expected because the extremes are not as
directly related to the generation procedure as mean monthly
temperatures. In general, however, the temperature extremes
are adequate for most applications.

The precipitation and temperature correction procedures offer


an opportunity to make adjustments in the generation procedure
when the parameters from table A1 and figures A1-A9 are not
adequate due to some physical effect (such as topography) or
,

when a more precise definition of precipitation and/or tempera-


ture is needed. As an example of the application of the
correction procedure, a 30-year record of ^^ather data was
generated for a site on Reynolds Mountain,— south of Boise,
ID. Boise was the nearest location for which precipitation
parameters could be obtained from table Al. The elevation at
the Reynolds Mountain site is 7,100 feet while the elevation at
Boise is only 2,840 feet. The precipitation regime on Reynolds
Mountain is considerably different from that in Boise because
of the elevation difference and related factors. Similarly,
actual temperatures at the Reynolds Mountain site are much lower
than would be generated using the parameters from figures A1-A9
since the parameters were developed for sites at lower elevations
such as Boise. To adjust these differences, the precipitation
and temperature correction options were used. The mean monthly
precipitation, maximum temperature, and minimum temperature
were calculated from actual data from Reynolds Mountain. These
means were input to the WGEN program along with the generation
parameters obtained from table Al and figures A1-A12 for
Boise.

—The weather data for Reynolds Mountain were obtained by the


USDA-ARS Northwest Watershed Research Center and supplied by
C. L. Hanson.

13
The results of the generation are shown in table 12. The mean
monthly precipitation amounts from the generated data are an
excellent representation of the observed data. However, the
wet days generated by WGEN are less than the observed number
because only the rainfall amounts are changed with the correction
procedure. The daily maximum and minimum temperatures generated
using the correction procedure also compare closely with the
observed data for Reynolds Mountain and are much lower than
would be generated without the correction procedure (see
table 8) .

SUMMARY The WGEN model is designed for use in generating daily values
of precipitation, maximum temperature, minimum temperature, and
solar radiation that are representative of the weather at a
specific site. The generation procedure is designed to account
for the dependence structure of the four variables. The serial
dependence of p is described using a first-order Markov chain.
The t , t , ,and r values are related to p by conditioning
the vafues on’^the wet or dry status of the day. The persistence
of t , t ,
, and r is preserved using the serial-correlation
of eac^ variable. The dependence among the three variables is
preserved using the cross-correlation coefficients. The
generation procedure is also designed to describe the seasonal
characteristics of the variables. The basic structure of the
model is simple and several assumptions are made to enable
general application of the model.

Two major generation options are available with WGEN. The user
may choose to (1) generate daily values of all four variables
or (2) use actual precipitation data and generate the other
three variables. In addition to the two major options, the
user may choose to apply correction factors to precipitation
and/or temperature based on actual mean monthly values.

A Fortran program of WGEN is given in appendix C. Application


of WGEN to a particular site requires that 48 precipitation
parameters and 12 temperature and radiation parameters be
defined. The precipitation parameters have been defined for
139 locations in the United States and are given in table Al.
The temperature and radiation parameters have been mapped and
are given in figures A1-A12. A description of the input
format for WGEN is given in appendix B. A Fortran program is
given in appendix D that can be used to define the generation
parameters derived from actual weather data for a particular
site.

14
. . . . . ,

LITERATURE CITED Bond, D. C. 1979. Generating daily weather values by computer


simulation techniques for crop yield forecasting models.
USDA-SRS (formerly USDA-ESCS) , Statis. Res. Div. , 38 pp.
Washington, D.C.

Bruhn, J. A., W. E. Fry, and G. W. Pick. 1980. Simulation of


daily weather data using theoretical probability distribu-
tions. J. Appl. Meteor. 19 (9) 1029-1036
:

Haan, C. T. 1977. Statistical Methods in Hydrology, 378 pp.


The Iowa State Univ. Press, Ames.

Jones, J. W., R. F. Colwick, and E. D. Threadgill. 1972. A


simulated environmental model of temperature, evaporation,
rainfall, and soil moisture. Trans. ASAE 15 (2) 366-372:

Larsen, G. A. and R. B. Pense. 1981. Stochastic simulation of


daily climatic data. USDA-SRS, Statis. Res. Div. Rpt.
No. AGES810831. Washington, D.C.

Matalas, N. C. 1967. Mathematical assessment of synthetic


hydrology. Water Resources Res. 3(4):937, 945.

Nicks, A. D. and J. F. Harp. 1980. Stochastic generation of


temperature and solar radiation data. J. Hydrology 48:1-17.

Richardson, C. W. 1981. Stochastic simulation of daily precipi-


tation, temperature, and solar radiation. Water Resources
Res. 17(1): 182-190.

Richardson, C. W. 1982a. A comparison of three distributions


for the generation of daily rainfall amounts. In Singh,
V. P. (ed.). Statistical Analysis of Rainfall and Runoff,
pp. 67-78, Proc. Int. Symp. on Rainfall-Runoff Modeling,
Water Resources Publications, 700 pp.

Richardson, C. W. 1982b. Dependence structure of daily tempera-


ture and solar radiation. Trans. ASAE 25 (3) 735-739
:

Smith, R. E. and H. A. Schreiber. 1974. Point processes of


seasonal thunderstorm rainfall. 2. Rainfall depth proba-
bilities. Water Resources Res. 10 (3) 418-423
:

U.S. Department of Commerce. 1968. Climatic atlas of the United


States. Environ. Sci. Serv. Admin., Environ. Data Serv.
80 pp.

Woolhiser, D. A. and J. Roldan. 1982. Stochastic daily precipi-


tation models. 2. A comparison of distributions of amounts.
Water Resources Res. 18(5) 1461-1468
:

15
Table 1. Values of u, C, and T for the mean maximum tempetatute on wet
or dry days for 31 locations in the United States

Dry days Wet days

Location u C T u C T
(Op) (Op) (Op) (Op) (days)
(days)

Albuquerque , MM 71.0 23.1 195.9 64.8 24.4 200.6


Atlanta, GA 71.8 19.3 197.1 69.8 17.2 197.1
Bismarck, ND 55.5 32.4 201.7 48.8 32.1 199.4
Boise, ID 63.7 26.1 198.3 59.4 20.6 202.9
Boston, MA 59.3 24.0 202.9 58.2 20.7 209.2
Brownsville, TX 83.4 10.8 201.1 78.4 13.1 204.6
Caribou ME
, 48.6 30.1 201.1 48.4 23.9 204.6
Charleston, SC 75.6 15.9 197.1 74.4 14.6 201.1
Cleveland OH, 60.0 25.3 203.5 58.6 25.1 201.1
Columbia, MO 66.0 25.5 200.6 64.0 23.8 201.1
Dodge City, KS 69.5 24.4 199.4 59.5 28.7 198.3
El Paso, TX 78.1 19.5 194.8 71.5 22.0 197.1
Ely, NV 62.5 23.5 203.5 54.5 23.1 206.3
Fresno, CA 76.7 21.0 200.6 69.4 16.8 208.1
Great Falls, MT 59.5 24.1 202.3 46.9 28.4 198.8
Grand Junction, CO 66 . 27.7 197.7 59.9 24.7 200.6
Greensboro, NC 69.8 20.5 197.7 67.6 19.2 196.5
Indianapolis, IN 62.3 26.4 200.0 62.0 23.5 200.6
Lander, WY 60.0 26.3 200.6 49.7 25.1 200.6
Little Rock, AR 73.7 21.8 198.3 70.6 19.9 199.4
Madison, WI 57.0 29.1 200.0 55.9 27.5 201.7
Medford, OR 68.3 22.6 198.3 60.9 16.3 203.5
Miami, FL 83.1 7.9 204.0 82.6 6.4 207.5
Nashville TN, 70.3 23.2 198.8 69.6 19.7 198.8
Oklahoma City, OK 72.6 22.4 199.4 66.1 24.1 200.0
Phoenix, AZ 85.5 19.8 200.6 76.8 20.7 205.8
Rapid City, SD 62.4 25.7 202.9 51.7 29.0 200.0
Salt Lake City, UT 65.3 27.3 199.4 59.6 23.5 204.6
San Antonio, TX 81.0 16.5 198.3 75.8 16.8 198.3
Sault Ste. Marie, MI 49.9 27.7 204.0 47.9 25.5 204.0
Spokane, WA 58.4 26.3 197.7 53.6 20.3 198.8

Mean 67.3 23.1 199.9 62.5 21.8 201.6


Std. dev. 9.5 5.2 2.4 9.8 5.3 3.4

16
Table 2. Values of u, C, and T for coefficient of variation of maximum
temperature on wet or dry days for 31 locations in the United States

Dry days Wet days

Location u C T u C T
(days) (days)

Albuquerque 0.11 -0.07 201.1 0.14 -0.07 201.1


Atlanta 0.12 -0.08 201.7 0.12 -0.06 198.8
Bismarck 0.30 -0.28 200.6 0.32 -0.28 197.7
Boise 0.15 -0.07 201.7 0.15 -0.03 194.2
Boston 0.16 -0.08 205.2 0.16 -0.06 215.6
Brownsville 0.07 -0.05 194.2 0.09 -0.06 193.1
Caribou 0.26 -0.23 200.6 0.21 -0.12 197.1
Charleston 0.10 -0.07 200.6 0.10 -0.06 205.8
Cleveland 0.22 -0.07 209.8 0.21 -0.13 205.8
Columbia 0.19 -0.13 200.6 0.19 -0.13 201.1
Dodge City 0.17 -0.11 204.0 0.23 -0.15 202.9
El Paso 0.09 -0.05 198.8 0.13 -0.07 202.3
Ely 0.15 -0.10 203.5 0.17 -0.06 198.3
Fresno 0.10 -0.03 204.6 0.10 -0.01 199.4
Great Falls 0.21 -0.14 201.7 0.40 -0.36 195.9
Grand Junction 0.14 -0.09 200.6 0.15 -0.06 195.4
Greensboro 0.13 -0.08 202.9 0.15 -0.07 202.3
Indianapolis 0.19 -0.14 200.6 0.18 -0.12 203.5
Lander 0.19 -0.14 195.9 0.25 -0.15 191.3
Little Rock 0.13 -0.09 199.4 0.14 -0.09 197.1
Madison 0.22 -0.17 199.4 0.21 -0.13 202.9
Medford 0.13 -0.04 202.3 0.13 -0.01 204.0
Miami 0.05 -0.03 204.0 0.05 -0.02 222.5
Nashville 0.15 -0.11 200.0 0.14 -0.08 200.0
Oklahoma City 0.15 -0.10 201.1 0.18 -0.12 198.3
Phoenix 0.08 -0.03 212.7 0.09 -0.02 194.2
Rapid City 0.22 -0.15 201.1 0.30 -0.22 197.7
Salt Lake City 0.15 -0.09 201.1 0.17 -0.07 197.1
San Antonio 0.09 -0.06 198.8 0.12 -0.07 197.7
Sault Ste. Marie 0.24 -0.18 204.6 0.22 -0.13 205.8
Spokane 0.16 -0.08 194.8 0.16 -0.05 195.4

Ave. 0.16 -0.10 201.5 0.17 -0.10 200.5


Std. dev. 0.06 .06 3.7 0.07 0.08 6.3

17
Table 3. Values of u, C, and T for the mean and coefficient of variation
of minimum temperature for 31 locations in the United States

Coef. of var.
Mean wet or dry days wet or dry days

Location u C T u C T
(°F) (“F) (days) (days)

Albuquerque 43.5 21.0 200.6 0.17 -0.13 202.9


Atlanta 51.4 18.8 199.4 0.16 -0.13 198.3
Bismarck 29.3 28.7 199.4 0.65 -0.90 200.0
Boise 39.5 17.1 201.7 0.22 -0.06 187.9
Boston 43.6 21.0 207.5 0.20 -0.18 199.4
Brownsville 64.9 12.7 197.7 0.11 -0.08 196.5
Caribou 29.8 25.1 205.2 0.35 -0.50 207.5
Charleston 53.9 18.2 199.4 0.16 -0.12 195.9
Cleveland 41.3 21.3 205.2 0.29 -0.16 203.5
Columbia 44.7 23.3 200.6 0.26 -0.22 198.8
Dodge City 42.9 24.2 201.1 0.25 -0.20 201.7
El Paso 50.8 20.2 197.1 0.15 -0.11 199.4
Ely 28.1 18.2 200.6 0.45 -0.45 194.2
Fresno 48.7 13.3 201.7 0.12 -0.05 195.4
Great Falls 34.1 20.6 204.0 0.49 -0.56 199.4
Grand Junction 40.3 22.7 199.4 0.23 -0.20 196.5
Greensboro 47.0 20.2 199.4 0.20 -0.14 196.5
Indianapolis 42.3 22.6 200.0 0.28 -0.24 199.4
Lander 31.7 22.5 200.6 0.44 -0.48 195.9
Little Rock 51.4 20.5 197.1 0.18 -0.13 195.9
Madison 35.1 24.6 202.3 0.48 -0.55 200.6
Medford 40.6 11.7 204.0 0.16 -0.06 191.3
Miami 68.2 9.1 206.3 0.08 -0.06 204.0
Nashville 48.5 20.8 198.3 0.22 -0.17 198.8
Oklahoma City 49.0 22.3 199.4 0.19 -0.15 200.0
Phoenix 56.5 19.5 204.6 0.11 -0.05 202.3
Rapid City 34.5 23.8 202.3 0.42 -0.46 200.0
Salt Lake City 38.9 19.8 200.6 0.25 -0.18 194.2
San Antonio 58.0 17.7 197.7 0.15 -0.11 200.0
Sault St e. Marie 31.1 23.3 209.8 0.61 -0.80 208.7
Spokane 37.4 16.2 201.1 0.23 -0.16 194.2

Ave. 43.8 20.0 201.4 0.27 -0.25 198.7


Std. dev. 10.1 4.2 3.1 0.15 0.22 4.3

18
Table 4. Values of u, C, and T for the mean solar radiation on wet or
dry days for 31 locations in the United states

Dry days Wet days

Location u C T u C T
(ly) (ly) (days) (ly) (ly) (days)

Albuquerque 520.4 224.6 171.1 285.2 226.7 180.9


Atlanta 448.1 174.0 166.5 259.4 161.7 177.4
Bismarck 401.0 266.1 171.7 271.1 181.2 174.0
Boise 429.2 276.0 173.4 282.7 209.3 179.2
Boston 388.0 218.5 168.2 201.9 142.5 176.9
Brownsville 480.5 175.1 180.9 291.4 157.1 191.9
Caribou 383.2 245.6 164.7 224.6 142.2 166.5
Charleston 462.7 176.2 165.3 283.0 159.2 176.3
Cleveland 383.6 244.4 171.1 244.0 176.7 175.1
Columbia 430.8 226.7 174.6 258.7 185.7 178.6
Dodge City 464.2 221.0 172.8 308.6 198.4 174.6
El Paso 545.3 206.7 168.2 419.8 227.7 172.2
Ely 486.4 241.5 172.2 341.4 174.6 171.7
Fresno 462.1 259.4 172.8 292.9 175.6 170.5
Great Falls 389.9 277.2 172.8 271.6 176.5 169.9
Grand Junction 478.7 235.8 172.8 329.5 183.1 175.7
Greensboro 434.4 184.2 168.2 263.2 170.8 172.2
Indianapolis 407.1 224.5 172.8 248.7 179.5 176.9
Lander 451.8 242.3 169.9 324.1 162.1 164.7
Little Rock 438.1 195.7 169.9 254.0 174.3 179.8
Madison 398.8 240.6 169.9 245.8 170.2 175.1
Medford 425.9 298.6 174.6 271.9 192.0 174.0
Miami 494.2 135.7 167.0 367.9 108.0 180.3
Nashville 431.0 207.8 170.5 255.3 186.2 179.8
Oklahoma City 449.3 194.3 174.6 270.1 180.6 178.6
Phoenix 516.0 208.9 165.9 360.7 195.7 180.3
Rapid City 414.0 238.4 171.1 293.8 173.7 168.8
Salt Lake City 462.8 267.2 172.2 309.1 200.1 176.9
San Antonio 466.5 168.9 181.5 292.0 166.7 183.8
Sault Ste. Marie 396.5 277.8 165.3 230.6 144.2 167.0
Spokane 394.3 296.7 172.8 255.1 200.8 171.1

Ave. 443.1 227.4 171.1 284.1 176.9 175.5


Std. dev. 43.0 40.0 4.0 45.5 24.5 5.5
Table 5. Values pf u, C, and T fPTT thp cppfflclant, \>y vajriatlpn pf splair
radiatlpn pn wet qv dry days fpr 31 Ipeatlons In the United States

Dry days Wet days


Location
u C T u C T
(days) (days)

Albuquerque 0.15 -0.05 190.7 0.32 -0.13 178.6


Atlanta 0.24 -0.06 197.7 0.56 -0.22 194.8
Bismarck 0.26 -0.07 190.2 0.46 -0.01 197.7
Boise 0.23 -0.12 189.6 0.44 -0.12 178.0
Boston 0.28 -0.05 182.1 0.70 -0.16 186.1
Brownsville 0.24 -0.11 204.0 0.52 -0.19 211.5
Caribou 0.28 -0.06 117.9 0.55 -0.08 90.2
Charleston 0.22 -0.06 190.2 0.52 -0.17 197.1
Cleveland 0.32 -0.12 180.3 0.56 -0.16 179.8
Columbia 0.28 -0.11 200.0 0.59 -0.22 189.6
Dodge City 0.23 -0.06 202.3 0.52 -0.13 181.5
El Paso 0.14 -0.04 175.1 0.33 -0.13 172.2
Ely 0.17 -0.04 197.7 0.33 -0.07 160.7
Fresno 0.21 -0.15 186.7 0.48 -0.12 156.1
Great Falls 0.26 -0.08 179.8 0.43 -0.04 111.6
Grand Junction 0.19 -0.04 205.2 0.38 -0.10 176.3
Greensboro 0.24 -0.05 193.1 0.55 -0.19 187.3
Indianapolis 0.29 -0.12 197.1 0.58 -0.23 183.8
Lander 0.18 -0.01 178.6 0.38 -0.02 118.5
Little Rock 0.26 -0.10 192.5 0.57 -0.24 196.5
Madison 0.30 -0.08 176.9 0.59 -0.13 179.2
Medford 0.26 -0.16 184.4 0.42 -0.10 163.6
Miami 0.19 -0.02 194.8 0.35 -0.05 222.0
Nashville 0.28 -0.12 192.5 0.56 -0.25 191.3
Oklahoma City 0.26 -0.07 200.6 0.58 -0.20 189.0
Phoenix 0.14 -0.04 169.9 0.40 -0.16 192.5
Rapid City 0.23 -0.04 192.5 0.43 -0.04 131.2
Salt Lake City 0.22 -0.10 184.4 0.42 -0.12 169.4
San Antonio 0.25 -0.12 210.4 0.53 -0.23 205.2
Sault Ste. Marie 0.29 -0.11 150.3 0.54 -0.04 111.5
Spokane 0.28 -0.14 178.0 0.44 -0.09 154.9

Ave. 0.24 -0.08 186.6 0.48 -0.13 172.8


Std. dev. 0.05 0.04 17.6 0.09 0.07 31.1

20
Table 6. Variable names for the means (u) and, amplitudes (C) of
equation (14) for t , t . and r
,
max min

Variable name Description

TXMD mean of t (dry)


^ , "F
max
ATX amplitude of t^^^ (wet or dry) , °F

CVTX mean coef. of var. of t (wet or dry)

ACVTX amplitude of coef. of var. of t (wet or dry)


^^^
TXMW mean of t (wet) , "F
max
TN mean of t . (wet or dry) , °F
min
ATN amplitude of (wet or dry) , ’’F

CVTN mean of coef. of var. of t , (wet or dry)


min
ACVTN amplitude of coef. of var. of t , (wet or dry)

min
RMD mean of r (dry) , ly

AR amplitude of r (dry) , ly

CVRD mean of coef. of var. of r (dry)


(assumed to be 0.24 for all locations)

ACVRD amplitude of coef. of var. of r (dry)


(assximed to be -0.08 for all locations)

RMW mean of r (wet) , ly

CVRW mean of coef. of var. of r (wet)


(assumed to be 0.48 for all locations)

ACVRW amplitude of coef. of var. of r (wet)


(assumed to be -0.13 for all locations)
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VALUES

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<0 r-
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“D CD CD in in in d d
MIAMI in in

CM in CO in CO in CO CO CM
z CO O CD CO in O
3 CD in
DATA,
3 CO d in in CD in «r- CD
in in

01 CO o o in r*- in o 0)
WEATHER > CD 0) CO CO CD o
< 00
s ID r- 0) d in d in
in
in

oc
in CM o o
CO
O
CM
CO o CO CO CD
CD 01 CD
OBSERVED

CL CD CM
< CM CM U1 in CM CM o d CM
in in

AND in 0) in o in h- o Pi 00
oc
<
o o o in in O o
0) 0)
CM CM ID in CM CM d d

GENERATED

o 0) o o o CO in
- PI CO CO
00
Ui
CM CO o P) CO in o
(0
u. CM CM (D ID CM CM d d o CO
CO
OF

CM o o h- in p- CM
z CM CM ID CM CO o o
< CM CM
3 CM CM (D CD CM CM d d CO CO
CO CO
COMPARISION

z z z Z z z z z Z z
< < < < < < Z
HH
< < < <
LU LU UJ UJ LU LU UJ UJ LU UJ
s s cn s S CO s s s s £ s
9. > > o >
< <
z Q a Q o Q CM Q Q
o Q LU Q LU Q LU o UJ O UI
H- z UJ 1- K LU 1- K UJ 1- A LU H > UJ h-
1—
w > < LU > < LU > < > < > <
TABLE < QC cc 3 QC oc 3 DC DC to DC DC Z DC U
K LU LU LU LU UJ LU > .
LU UJ o < LU UJ
h- 1- cn z Li. to z lu to z < to Z l-H o CO Z
a z CO LU O CD LU O QQ LU a CQ LU H m UJ
t-H 3 o CD O o O CD O CD < z o O
u o z HH <
LU £ o D o O LU
O' < z o: z < £
0. DC

26
z
O) 0) O CO o CO o CO
r^ CP O CP CD cn O CO
z
< OJ CM 00 CP in O y-
CO CO CP CP 0) cn CO

*
o
(P CO CP in O in N o CO O O
LU
0) CO CP o cn 00 CP o o O O
Q in in cn CM CO CM CO d d
in in CO 00

*
>
in CD in in r- in o O
Q
CP 0) CO h- o CO O
z 0) cn in d 0) d d d
r^ CP CD CO cn in

* *
CO CP CM in in h- o t^
1-
o
CO in CM CO in CM 0> o
o CM *1-
CP cn •r- - t^ d d
CO 00 CP CO cn CD in

* *
CO CM CP CO o o O O in
CL
Ul
0) CO CO o CO in cn O T-TEST

10 00
CO
(P
00
in CM CM T- d o
r- 0) 0) t^ CP
BY
* *
'it CO in in in CO o t-- o CO o
o CJ) T- CP CP in CO in O o
D LEVEL

< 0) d (P in CO CO CM -r- T- d
CO 0) cn 0) r-

* * *
%
5
h- CO in in CO O r- o CO O o
_J C7) CO CO 00 CO 0) in CM O O o AT
“D CO
CO
*-
cn
in CD CM
0)
CO T-
t^
d d
r«‘ cn r«*

* •N- * VALUES

o 'I' CM O o O CO in CO O o
Z LO o T- CO t^ O O o
h- d in CM CO 0) d d d
CO cn 0) 0) CP h-

* OBSERVED

h- CO CM CP o r- in r- O CO O
>• in CO 00 CO CP h- O o O
<
S LO CP
00
d d CM CM CO d d
CO cn 0) CP CP
FROM

*
o CO o O O r- o CO O
q: in o 00 00 r- 00 o O
a.
< CN
CO
CM
CO
r-
CP
in
CP
cn
00
•r« CP
in
in o d
cn in
DIFFERENT

C>J h- T- O CO o CO o CO O
oc T- o CM co CO o o O
<
0) 00 CO d d CP 00 d d
CP CP 00 cn

*
o CM cn CO o o O CO o r^ O
CO CM CO (P r- CM o O O SIGNIFICANTLY

UJ
U- CP in cn CP in cn CO d d

r~ CN CO O o CO
z CO -r- in O o o
<
"3 n o VALUES

f' 00 O’

z z z z X z z z
H
z z z z z z
u. < < u. < < < < < < < < < <
ai
<
UJ UJ UJ IP UJ ai IP IP Ul Ul
w UJ
S 2 w s s
-J
£ s
_l
s. s u s s u S. z GENERATED

s < < in CM
3 Q 3 Q Z) o 3 o cn Q CO o
S o IP s o UJ z Q Ul z Q UJ o Ul o UJ
t-H IP K H<l IP 1- z IP 1- z aj h- A UJ H V aj K
X > < z > < < > < < > < > < > <
< q: OC HH cc QC oc oc OL OC in cc QC cn cn QC
s IP UJ s IP Ul > IP Ul > aj UJ > IP Ul > aj IP
CO Z CO Z _J CO z _J to Z < cn Z < (/) Z
TEMPERATURE
>• CO IP > GO Ul X 00 Ul X CO UJ o CO Ul o OQ IP
-J o CP -1 O CP K o CP H o CP o CP O CP
HH Z z
< < o o o o
Q o s s z z

27
CD in Lf) o in CD o o CO
z O CO 0) o
z CD
< CD CD d o o GO
CD CD

in in CD o O o CD Oi C3)
CJ 00 CO in 00 o o CO CO
UJ
O 6 6 CD CD CM **“
d o CO
C>j
CP
CM

0) o in CD o o o 0)
> rr CD CO CO o o
o in CD
z d O CM CM •r-
d d CM
CD CD

(0 o O in CD o o CJ) GO
H in CD r- o o
u GO CM
o d d OJ CM T- o d CD 0)
CD

CO o in o in IT) CD in o
Q. CO O «r“ o O
LU O d
in d CM CD CM CM d d CD
in
0)

o o o CD O CD in o CD
C5 CM CM in CD -r- O o
3
< T- 1- in in CM CM d d 0)
in
00
in
AZ

CD CM in o o CD o o CM CO
C- o o o
D in
PHOENIX, 3 d d CM CM d d CO
(0
(O

in o o o in O o CO O
z 0) CO CM O o
3 CM CD
DATA,
3 d d d o T“ d o CM o

o o in o o CO CO
WEATHER > O CO in CM o o
< CD in
o d d d d o O CO
CO

o CD o c- o CD o o 0)
OBSERVED
cc
CL
CD CM r^ CO CD o o CO r^
< d d T- d d CD GO
in
CO

AND CO T- in CD in o o 0)
CL
<
h- in CD O o o
C-
s d d CD CD CM d d O
in

GENERATED

CD o in CD in CD Q o 00 CO
QQ in in in o o
LU o
U. d d CD CD CM CM d d 0)
CD
CO
CD
OF

CD CM in o o r^ o o 0) 0)
z
<
CO 0) CO CM 00 o o
CO 0)
“D d d CD CM CM V- d d CJ) CO
CM CM
COMPARISION

z z z z z z z z z z
< < < < < < z < < < <
LU LU LU LU LU LU LU LU UJ LU
s s c/) S s in z s s S £ £
>• > o >
10.
< <
Z Q Q D o Q CM Q w Q
o /«—
Q LU Q LU Q LU Q LU Q LU
l-H z LU H (- LU h- h- LU H A lU H > LU H-
h- h-4 > < LU > < LU > < > < > <
TABLE < 01 3 oi 01 01 01 in 01 CL z r-t 01 01
f- LU LU LU LU LU LU > LU LU o < LU LU
h-l H in z LL in z LU in z < in z O in z
CL z 03 LU O 00 LU O 00 UJ o CO LU H CO LU
3 o CO o o o CD o CO < z o CO
U o z <
LU £ o 3 o Q UJ
o: < z 01 z < z
CL 01

28
t

in
0)
0)
CO
to
00
in CO o in o in r^
0) 0) to to to
-r- to CO CM CM in CM 00 D
00 00 in in •*“
CM CM CM o CM

*
o CM CO in o in o O o O CO
0) 0) CM CO CM to CO o o CO

in
(.0 to
0)
CO
00
CO
r^
r- 00
0)
CM CM
d d

CO 'cr 00 h- O o in o o
O to CM to in o CM
Tj
r^
CM to in
00
r^
CO CO
CO
CO
o o

* *
n in o CO in CO in o in o O o
to to 0) CO 0) 00 <7) to O o
h- CO r-- c- in CM in CM
00 00 in in 0) O)

* * * *
If)
o
CO CO in CO in CO in O o
in CO 00 O O o T-TEST

h- CM 0) CO in CO CO CO CM
0) o to to O o in in CM -
BY
* * *
00 o in 0) o CO O h* o o O
in CO CO CO r- to O 00 O
LEVEL

•r- 00 to o 00 00 oo d CO CO
o
«r-
0) c- o O to to CM CM

5%
* * *
in CM O CD o in o in O O o
CO in in o to CO O in O o AT
“D 00 CM 6 6 CO d
O o r- to CO CM

VALUES

2
h- o CO CM in o O r- O c* O
13
CO 00 h- O) CM CO O O
-D 0) 0) 0) 0) 0) 0) in in
O 0) to to o in in CM CM

* OBSERVED

CM to h- CM O o in in CO o
rj- 00 in 0) CO 0) in o
CM o D CO o CJ) 03 o o
03 03 O O T-

FROM

O in o in h- o o
q: to in n o o
Q.
< in CM d d
0)
DIFFERENT

*
If) to in o o in CO
o o O h- o o to CM

CO CO
d d d r-’

00

* *
CO O O o o O CO
to O O o o r- o SIGNIFICANTLY

00 r- d d CM to
CO CM

* *
O in o o o in CO
z 0) CO to 00 00 o *“
o o CO in
Q <
LU “0 "a- CM CO in 00
N
GO in d o in GO
VALUES

Z) CP to CO CO r^ CM CM
LL

w
z z Z Z z z z z z z z z
< < < < < 1— < < < < < <
lli lu UJ LU LU s LU LU LU LU LU LU
E E s z LL s £ Lu s s GENERATED

-J
< in CM
3 o 3 Q 0) Q CO o
E lu Z Q LU o LU o LU
K Z lU K A LU 1- V LU h-
X < < > < > < > <
< cr O' q: to QL a to Ci Of
E LU > LU LU > LU LU > lU LU
z 3 to z < 1/3 z < to z
TEMPERATURE
LU I CD LU o m LU o 03 LU
CO 1- O o o C3 o to

<
Q

29
* *
in CO o CO O o 00
z CM o CM h- CO o
z CM
< LO in 00 CD CD CN CN
329.

CM CN CO

CM r- in o in CO in CO
o T- CO 00 O CM
N 128.4
LU
o 6 CO CO CO d d CN

u> in o o O in CD
> (£) (S> 05 t^ CN
O 151.0

z d CO CO d d in

*
O in o in CO o cn CN
K CO •r~ 0) in t^ CM O
o CO
245.6

o CO CM 0) CO CM d d in
CN

in CM in CO o CO o CO CD
a
UJ
O CD CD CO
0)
364.4

</) CO CO 00 CN CM d d in
CO

O o o o o in o CO
o r- in o o CD CM
3 V-J
457.4

< CO CO d (0 CO CN d d CO

MA
*
o CO o o in o
in in o
D CO
525.1

BOSTON.
"D CN CN 0^ GO CO CO d d CO

00 CM o o o o in
z o u> in in o o 537.6
Z)
DATA,
CO CO d d CO CO d d o
in

>
00 0) o CO in r^ in o 00
WEATHER in 0) Tf CN CM o
< - in
497.8

s CO D T-
CO d d 00

00 in C o
00
o o
T“
o CM
QC CO CO CO 413.0
OBSERVED

a. CD
< CO CO •»-
d CO CO d d 00
CO

AND CO 00 O o o r«- o o h*
a. u> O 0) 0)
< -
292.4

s CN o d d O
CO

GENERATED

r- r«* in O o o O 00
CQ 0) CD CO CM 0) CM
197.7
Ui CN
u. CO - CO tn d d
CN
OF

CO in CO in h- o c-
z r- 0) 00 n 00 O o o
< 138.3

“D CO CO T- CO d d
COMPARISION

z z z z z z z z Z
< < < < < < Z
1—
< < < MEAN
LiJ UJ UI UI UJ Ui UI UI UI
s s in £ s in £ £ £ £ -—N £
> > o >
11.
< <
z Q o Q Q Q CM Q w
o o UI Q Ui O UJ o UJ O
t-H z UJ 1- h- UI H h- UI K A UI t- > UI
1- I— > < Ul > < Ul > < > < -1 >
TABLE < w* QC q: 3 QC QC q: QC in q: QC Z QC
>
GENERATED

K UJ UJ Ui UI UJ UJ UJ Ui o < UJ
t— 1- CO z u. in z LL cn Z < in z •-H o tn
Q. z OD UI O 00 UI O 00 UJ o 00 UI 1- 00
1-4 3 O CJ o c o CD o CD < z o
CJ o z <
LAJ s o D o o Ul
<
I

QC z 01 z < £
a cc

30
t 1

* *
z
If)
CD r-
CO
LO
If)
CO
O in o in o
Lf) CO CO in 'T 00 0)
2
< 00 r- CO If) CO d CO CM d ID CO
If) Lf) 0) 0) 05 CM

*
o
CO
o
CO o o O If) CO Q Q Q
UJ
If) CO CO CM 6 6 o
o 0) CO CO 0) 0) cn d d CM
CO CO CM CM in in CM CM

* « *
>
o CO in o o O O Q o O
o
00 0) CO in CO o o o
z t^ 00 CM LO CO d d ID
If) CO CO ID CO CM

* * * *
CO CM r- o o O o Q o in CO
H-
o
CO CM CM (D O o 6 o n CO

o CM 00 CM d r-* d d 6 CO
CO in CO r-- CO CM

« * *
CO 0) If) CO O CO O CO o o O O
a.
UJ
CM CM If) CO 00 00 O o O o
T-TEST

00 CM d CO CM cn in CO d d 6 d
If) to 00 00
BY
*
CO CO CO O CO in O in o o o
CO CO CO to CO 00 in cn ID CM o o
LEVEL

< C7) 0) CO d CM d d d d d
r- CO CO 0) 0) in in

5%
* « * »
CM *r- 10 in O in CO in o o
t*- T- o o in CO CM CM o o
D
0
AT
CM LO n t^ d d d
00 00 CO CO cn cn in CO

* -N- « VALUES

z
CO CO cn in CO in f- in o o o
CO O CO in 00 in o o o
3
3 CO CO 0) cn CO CO cn CM d d d d
LO LO cn 00 in

* OBSERVED

>
r^ 00 CM o r- in O O CD o o
<
00 CO TT CO CO O o o o
s ID 00 cn CO cn 0) o d d d
ID CO in CO 00 CO CO
FROM

* *
h- 00 LO r-
O
in r^ o o in CD
cc
CL
0) CM 00 CO cn 6 o 0) C-

< CO in O d in cn CO d d T-^ in
in in CM CM
DIFFERENT

CO o 00 CO
v
LO CO O CO o o in o
oc
<
cn CO CO CO CO o o i^

CO d d CO CD in d d CO 00
CO CO CO CO

* *
CO in
- CM 00 LO r- in CO o o o o
00
LU
00 CO CO CM O cn o o CM SIGNIFICANTLY

Li. r-
CO
CO
CO
CO
CM
CM
CM
to
in
rt
If)
in 00 d d CO
CM
in
CM

* *
CO in h- Ln CO o o O r-
z O CO T- CM 00 CO CO o o O O
o <
UJ “D CO CM CM cn cn CO in d d to d
3 CO CO CM in CM CO
VALUES

Z u.

z z z z X z z z z z z z z z
u. < < Li. < < < < < < < < < < <
w LU LU
w LU UJ s LU LU z UJ LU UJ LU LU LU
s s £ z
u
s s _J
s z LL z z u. Z z GENERATED

s s < < in CM
D a D o 3 a 3 o cn o CO a
S o UJ S o LU Z o LU z a LU o UJ o LU
t— lU 1- I— LU H Z LU 1- z LU 1- A LU h- V LU H
X > < z > < < > < < > < > < > <
< q: oc h-l CL CL CL oc CL cn CL CL in QC CL
s UJ LU s LU LU > LU UJ > Ul LU > UJ LU > LU LU
1/5 z 10 z -J cn z _l 1/5 z < CO z < cn z
TEMPERATURE
>- m LU > 00 UJ I CO UJ X CD LU Q CO LU o 00 LU
-1 o CO U o O K o CO l- O o o o o CO
HH Z z
< < o o O o
o o s s Z z

31
I

'O'
CO
m
CM m VO vO 00
• • • • e • • •

CO 'O' CO CM vO VO CM CM
o •O' 'O' CO cy> 'O' 'O' CO CO
•H iH

O
(U C3^ m m
O
CU
O •
rH

VO

CO

CO

CM
• •
CM

O o 'X) vO vO cs CJV o C3V o


O iH fH CM CO iH CM

(U
CM
> m 00
in CO o^ O 00 CO O
4J o • • • • • • • •

n) !Z m m CO
iH
00 vO
CO
m
CO
in
CM
m
CM
(U

i* • 00 cn
(U 4J 'O' CM

<Ti

iH

00

CTi

p^

m •
CJ
o CM CM 00 O 00 CO 'O'
CO
'0-
CO
T) •vt-

a
nj t-test.

• rH 00
a P4 CO o^ CO (T\ iH O vO
o (U • • • • • • • •

•H
4-1
CO iH o in CO o
vO
rH
VD
<!•
<!
Cfl by
4J
•H
00
t'^
r—
m
vO O CO iH in iH
04 I 'O'
• • •
•H • level

O iH iH VO CO O CT>
vO
CM
m CS
m
(U
M
04 5%
CJ\
00 i-H vO v£> 00 rH m 'O' iH
0
n3
• • • •

•H
CO
o o •O' I—I CM
r'^
iH
p"
CO
m CO
m
at

0
0 o vO
O
•H
flj
CO

O • •
CO

00

c:^

O •
CO
«
values

4J CM CM o VO tH iH •O'
0 rH vO VO <0-
0
o
s CM
VO 70 VO vO 00 00 p' 00
observed
CO CO • • • • • • • •

T)
iH
S CM CM o
fH
00 o
m o
m •sp
CO CO
O
0
0.
0) 00 n' CP rH 00 CM
• • • • from
Pi • • • •

CO CO 00 00 00 <r <r
u iH CO CO CNJ CvJ
o

'CS o
o
vO
p'
00 rH CM O CP CM o
CU CO • • • • • • • • different

4J -a 'Cf 'cr in CTi CO CM iH iH


ca cc) tH CO CO CM CM
H 4J
CU CO
0 TO 00 CO
(U ,ci vO

00

CO

CM

o •
00

'll-

vO

00 V4 CU
0) 04 •O' in CO
iH
CM
iH
>— o rH
CM
iH
CM
CO rC CO CO
4J +J
cO CO
T3 CU CO vO
iw
15 0
CO
o •
vO

00

m •
CM

CM

00

rH

significantly

O t3 •“J 00 p- vD CM P'. P'. p'. fH.


1 — tH CM CM tH rH

/*-S
CO CU fJH (H
•H CO 3 3 O
v^
3 0 3
5^ X> 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3
cO O 3 (U 3 3 3 3 3 3
04 (U B 3 B 0 3 0 e 3 0 values

e .o B 3 B 3 0 2 0
O 4J « TU TO 0 TU e TO
U "H o 3 TU 3 3 3 3 •H T3 3 •H TO 3
IS M •H <u 4-1 '3 3 4-1 W 3 4-) C 3 4J
H
<
S_H > 3 > 3 Pd 3 >
U
3 •H > 3
. QJ U 4-1 }-i ^4
p 0 B U }-i

CN M H
M
4J CU 3 3 3
m
3 H 3
m
3
3
3
3
3
.H 3 3 CO 3 3 to 3 Generated

pH 3 rO 3 ,3 3 rH rQ 3 tH Xi 3
CU CU H O o CJ5 • O CJ W •H O CJ •H O O
iH O O B O Ph 3 cd
^cO
O
}-i g < !Z
S Q Q
H O. Ph H •K
I

32
i

SOLAR RADIATION DATA

Figure 1. Location of stations used to define weather generation parameters.

i(days)

Figure 2. Definition of variables in seasonal description of temperature


and solar radiation.

33
(‘F)

TEMP.

MAX.

OF

MEAN

TEMP.

MAX.

VAR.

OF

COEF.

A, maximum temperature B, minimum temperature

C, solar radiation

Figure 3 Definition of generation parameters for (A) maximum temperature,


(B) minimum temperature, and (C) solar radiation.

34
APPENDIX A

Generation Parameters
I;

u in 0) CO ^ ^ 03 ID in 05 O O 00 ID CO CD CM Tp in (55 Tp CM in in ^ CO c- CO in
LU 0) li) CD 0) c- CM cn r- r- CD 00 CO -r- CM O P' CM TT CO (D Tf tp »“ CO tP CM tp 03 O T- T- in

o ^ oj to CM tP CO CM CP CP in c- in TP o P- 05 O
CO 00 T- ^ c- in Tj* CM tp tp CO 05

oooo dodo oood dddd ddoo dodd ddod ddoo OOOO


> h- CO LO CO in CO CO CO 00 in ^ CD in ^ 0) CP P~ O P- o CM 00 tP CO 00 CO CM tP CO CO ^ CM CD CM
o LO O) 0) CM r- CO CD CO CO CM tP CM CM CO CM C" CM Tp CO o 03 00 CO CM tP CO 03 CO
z ^ CN LD CO •»- CP tp CO •*- CP CD ID "S- 05 O 05 CM O
CM ID CM ^ tP CO CO tP 00 CO O 05 CM

oooo dodd dooo dood ddoo oodo dodd odoo oooo


1- in •<a- O <D ^ tn LO 0) ^ O CM P' TP Tt o o CO in tp tp ^ in tP C' CD CO CM in
u O) ^ CO *»“
^ CO ^ in •>a-O ID
^ CP r-
CO tn in 00 *- CM CO CM tp CO CM in tp in in CM 03 CM tp in
o CO (D *«-
tP CP TP o 00 05 O ID 05
CO O
CO ID 05 CO tP CD CO *- tp tp o
CO 05 CM

oooo dood oooo dddd ddod odoo dddd dddd oooo


1- O in ID 00 CM CO (3) rr CP CD CD 00 CM CD CM CD C- CM CM CO h- in CM CM ^ tP ^ ^ 0) Tj- 03 CO in
a CO r- CO CO ^ O CP C' ^ CO CO in in CM in CO tp T- -r- CD 05 p^ in O £55P- CM O 03 CO
LU ^ ^ to r- in CM LO »“ in **“ to ^ ID TP Tp o in TP 05 O CO 00 ^ (p CO »- tp 03 CM o 00 T-
to
oooo odd 666 -r-
dddd ddoo ddd d dddd dddd 66 66
o ID in O 05 in CP ^ 00 ^ CM 00 in (D CM ^ 00 p~ O in CM O 05 T- T- o o CO p- >- o O £D (D CO
(/> D CM tP to CM •»“
in 00 O ID ID O 00 CM ^ in CO in c- in r- in CO 00 CO in O C55 (D
LU < ^ CM tP to in CO tp ^ CM C- ^ in CM c- CO CO tP CO CM O ID CM CO tp CO in CM O O' O
< oooo dddd dodd odod dood ddd o oddd oddo 66 66
{fi > CO CM CD CO CP CO r- ID p' O 00 in ^ IP CO tP 03 CM CO 00 O P~ 00 in o CM T- (0 CO o oo oo
OO 05 05 ^ 05 CO ^ CM ^ in CM CO tp 03 in CO CO CO CO ^ CM CD CD tP 0(000 O T- o 05
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CO CP CO ^ O 00 CO CM 00 ID CD 05
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3 3
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CJ>^ GO 0) to o 0) 05 ^ CP h- in O 'T 05
C' O CO O CO O O C' 't CO CM CO CM
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CO CM CM ^ CO ^• CM ^ 0) CO CM in CM m O CD 05 't 05 05 in 05
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SEPT
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AUG in C'
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CO CM ID
386 214 751 489 O CO 00
CO »- in CP
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*»“CO TJ* ^ CO CM in 00 CM CM CM in ^ r*-fs 00 ^ CO in CP 3 CM in
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JULY
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to •r- in in

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in ^ ^ O 00 CJ5o in in CP 00 00 CO 15
00 r- CM CO h- C' CD 00 CM O O
PARAMETERS

IP (P CM CP ^ cn CM CM ID O in to CO CO 491
1 633 811 ^O 00 in 478 117 611 993 O
CM

CO 05 CM n CD CD
JUNE
^ CM ^ ^ CM in r** ^ CM in in CM rs in ^ CM in r- in in CD 3 in 05

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CO CO ^ N CO n
IP IP in 00 CO CO CD 0) CP O CO CM in o CO «3 in 00
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GENERATION

CO o 0 in ) CO 0) CM •»“^
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APR 0> CO •»“
CM (j) in CO 0) CM CO r- CM CP •»- 453 149 741 565 O
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00

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MAR 00 CO h- CM O CM CO in C55C' in o O CO O in 318 111 864 241 326 121 748 240 0) ts. CO CP O
05 ^3 CM CD CO CD
^ CM CP r- in CO in 0- CM ID in CM C' ID CO CD CO 3 O CD CM n CD CM
RAINFALL

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FEB T- 0) CP CO CM in 0 ) in CM 0) CO 00 O CO 0) Tf 353 117 748 173 rso ^ in 00 in CP CM ^
CO CP 00
in CM (p in CO in ^ CM CD ^
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CO CO CO ID r- 05 CM CP in CO ^ ^ in CP CO CM CO in
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O 't CO ^^ 00 rs in •*-
OO
CO
^ ^
CM 313 081 654 214 444 174 601 366 459 148 614 324 456 171 483 435
in CM CP in CO 'T ^ CM CD ^ CM CD CD CO CP

oooo OOOO oooo oooo dddd OOOO OOOO OOOO OOOO

P(W/W) P(W/D) ALPHA P(W/W) P(W/D) ALPHA P(W/W) P(W/D) ALPHA P(W/W) P(W/D) ALPHA P(W/W) P(W/D) ALPHA P(W/W) P(W/D) ALPHA P(W/W) P(W/D) ALPHA P(W/W) P(W/D) ALPHA P(W/W) P(W/D) ALPHA
BETA BETA BETA BETA BETA BETA BETA BETA BETA

3 X
Z
HH
h-
»
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o • z z in
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LU < < o s CO < (/> o o:
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48
1

CO O CD C' <n 1- CO CM CP CO CM 00 CP CO O O CD
DEC 589 to 00 r~ CO CM 05 in h- CO CM CP CO ino^ 482 151 590 563 414 133 677 470 441 131 956 112 0) CO r-
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.
CO O 0) 'T CM CD CD Tt CM CP IP Tt »- CPn ^ CM CO

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h- ^ 04 ^ Ono <S) O in ^ '3- CO O P' CO r- CO CP in CM p- O
AON 'S- p) in O CM CD cn 156 613 718 O 00 P' Tf ^ 05 ^ CM CO -r- CM 'sr 00 o 364 111 889 169 434 170 821 212
CO O CO
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1- O IP in 00 P- '^ CO in in r- CO CP 00 CO CO CO in 00 CM in
o OJ CN
CNJ CO CM P- CM i- 424 131 629 O CO MT CO 445 135 600 762 421 125 488 308 CO CM CM in O P- •'3' P* IPO O CP
o CO in cN CO O CO CM
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rf CO •r- ^ T- h. CM
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^ ^ ^ ^ o
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SEPT
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CM (P in in CM r- O CM CO CD 00 ^
AUG
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139
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168
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219 581 747 378 115 566 769 365 118 584 831 386 111 711 546 0) ^ 0) •»“
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rr CM CP CO CO CO CO (P CM
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CO in CO CO O in 00(?) CO CM 0) CO CO ^ ^ O 05 00 in T- CO 05 in CO ^ CM 0) CO in 'T in 0)
Tj- o
tp O CM CM ^ CO o
in (p in ^ T- 0) 00 05 o
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o p- 'f 0) CO CP in CM h- CO CM CO Tt ^- CO 05 O in O 0) ^ CD
PARAMETERS

146 in 00 05 p' 468 141 029 in CO *»- CM CP ^ 0 CO r*-O 138 651 699 O p- CO O CO (0^
JUNE ,392

,
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O
CM CD CM
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,416

,
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CM CM ^ P' CO 05 00 O 05 in in CO in CM 0) CM (D 00 CO in CO (p
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GENERATION

^ CP CO ^ in <P 00 00 O CM in 0) r- 0) in rr 00 O CO ’3’ CO CO 00 CM CO O C5 in CD 0) IP
APR r- <n CM CO in CO 311 172 551 806 -r-^ CO 0) CO h- 00 ^ r- h* CO CP O CO '3' in CM in CM CO (D
^ CP 0^ O
CM CP *»“ ^ CM 'T 00 CO T- If) in ^ CP CP ^ CM in 00 '3' 05 in CM r-* CM

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^ CO CM CP CO in f-- in 1 0) CO r- ^ 05 CD CM O r- CP CP CD
MAR O CM
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RAINFALL

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CP in CO CO CO CM IP CM r- Tf ^ in CO CO in O O O in r--CO <D
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2 CO O 00 O
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P(W/W) P(W/D) ALPHA P(W/W) P(W/D) ALPHA P(W/W) P(W/D) ALPHA P(W/W) P(W/D) ALPHA P(W/W) P(W/D) ALPHA P(W/W) P(W/D) ALPHA P(W/W) P(W/D) ALPHA P(W/W) P(W/D) ALPHA
P(W/W) P(W/D) ALPHA
BETA BETA BETA BETA BETA BETA BETA BETA BETA

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49
in cc CO CM CO in CM CD CO N CO CM in CO 05 05 CO O
CM ^ ^
CD O O 10 in -O
DEC O <N C'j in 402 215 751 553 CO in in CO CM CO CO
^ ^
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CM CO CO CO CO CM O r- 0) O O ^ 00 CO Q 'T CO O CO CO 05 ^ in o rt o o o in CO rr CM
AON — O
CM CO 0) CO CM ^ 00 On 00 r- O 0) O ID CM (D CO 05 o in 00 •»- in 00 CM CM in in
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CM CM CO CO h* CO 0) CO o ^ CO 00 ^ 00
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CO •»- CO h- ^
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^ r- CM - in ^ ^ in 00 CO in CO CM f^ 19
CO n o 00 CO n 00
478 184 519 044 CM CO ^ CO 601 160 848 289 0) in CM CO CO in o^ ^ h- CM 415
1 860 196 00 0) . CM CD CM in
SEPT
tj-T- (£> CO CO 00 CO CM r* in o
CM CO ^ CM CO TT CM “IT

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^ CM CO CM 0) CO CO CM O) in CM
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AUG CO r-* O
CO r-O CO h* O
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CM 00 ^ 00^ O CO 00 SJ-
CM CO 0) ^ CM CO CO in CM CO CM CM O O
CM 05 O
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in CO ^ r^ 00 CM CM 0) 0) 00 0) O 0) 00 CM 'a- CM ID ID <0 CD 05 O 00 00 rs 00 05
CO CO O ^ ^ ^O CO ^
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CM o CO
CO 530 161 822 00 ^ O O O Oin CD ID 00 05 05 O' 00 O
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in CO in r«* CM CO CO CM ^ CO ^ O O CM CM '3’ 'a' m r^ O CM C- O ^
r- 00
PARAMETERS

CO CM ^ r- CM ^ ^ ^ *“ 0)
CJ) 0 0 0"^ CO CO O CJ5 O r~ 336 181 780 197 o ID CM in o
00 CD CO
JUNE
Tt CM CO CO rr CM CO CO in CM CM CM CO CM 00 in CM 00 CO ^ CM h- TT

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in CM O CO 0) CO in 00 05 CM 05 ^ CO CO in r- CO in r- CO 0) O ^ r- in CD 00 CM
MAY ^ ^ CM r-*
^
^ CO
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^ r- O 00 r- 00 in 00 ^
GENERATION

CM CM r- CO in CO CO CO CO 0) in CO in 05 (J5 CO CO CD
10
APR ^ O 00 CO in CM in CD T- CO O CM CO CO C' inO 360
1 988 119 in CD ^ CD CM o CD 00 ^
CO CO ^ CM 00 CO CO CM 0) CM CM 0) h- CO 00 ^ CM CO in CO 00 CO ^ CM r- CO

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QC 0) CD ^ CO O ID CO
'a- CO T- CO ^ CM 0) CD 0) 00 CD CO CO to 00 00 CO CD 00 r- r- ^ in CM CO o
< CM ^ CM CO 00 0) in CM 0) CO ^ CO in n O CO 00 00 CM CM CD
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RAINFALL

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CO O 05 P' ID CO CO CO CO ^ CM CM O 00 COCJ5 CM CO CM O 'S' ID fO rr O CM O CD in O CO CM 0)
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z CO CO CO CM O
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50
C) ^** CO CO C' CP cn CO 0) CO CO
DEC «• W
t«- P>
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»» CM CO ^ CM P« CM V CM CP CM CO o cn

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« CO cc o <» 0) 0) n V CO CM CO 00 CO CM »-
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to CM CM CO
CO V
CM »-
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CO <r CO
C» <9 o
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CP >9 CO C^
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SEPT
V CM r- CO n CM CO CO V CM CP ^ V »- CM
oobb oooo OOOO oooo
AUG
CM CO CO
»• V
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0) CO 0) 't
CO CO 00 <9
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CM CO CM
O CO CO t«- CM
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^
CM CO O CM CO CO CO CO CO « CO CO CM cn
JULY
CO CO CO CO CO CO CO cn CO CO 00 CM 0) >9
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PARAMETERS
CO CO CO MT
VO CM CO
CM CO 00
CO o> cn CO
cn CO
o
CP
00 C^ 00
o oo CM cn CM
00 00 00 O
JUNE
n 10 r* CO 9 CM CO CO CO CM CP 9 ^ CM CP CO

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CO CO CM CO CM r» CO 00 CO CO 9" o »* cn CO
MAY «* cn CO CO CM 00 O CP O® cn CO 00 n
CO CM CO CO cO CM r«- n ^ CO oo CM CO CM CM

oooo oooo oooo oooo


GENERATION

CO «» »• CM r* CM 0) o $ cn 0) CO r. CP cn V
APR O N C» CO oo CM CO o O Mt CO CM CM o
CP CO
^ CM t*- CO ^ CO t* <0 CO CO CO CO CM 00 *-

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CO CM CO CO CM CO O CP 0) ^ cn CO CO "*

MAR CM t«> CM CO CD (A 00 CM CP 0) 00 00 CM CO ^
1

V CM 9* CM «9 CM f* CM V CM 9* CM ^ CM oo
RAINFALL

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O 00 CO e> 't
O
O 0) O CP r* rr ifi ^
FEB »“ CO CO O CO r^ 9 CP CO CP C~ CM l»
^ r»' ^ CM r- ^ CM r» ^ cn o
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2 O CO 00 r* CM ^^
r* ^ CO ^ CO o CO 00 ^
< CM CO CO CM 0) oo CD CO CO CO (P O CP CM 0) CP
3 CO CM CO ** CO CM ^ ^ M <P CO 0) o
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P(W/W) ALPHA P(W/W) P(W/D) ALPHA P(W/W) ALPHA P(W/W) ALPHA


BETA BETA BETA BETA
P(M/0) P(W/0) P(W/0)

>
V •
s •
ui
Ui UJ

111
2 CO 2 z
5 CO D z
M o CO < UJ
- IX •-I >-
< o
cc
o
4
•J UI
z
CO 2 z o

51
TXMP
60.

Figure Al. Distribution of the nean of t for dry days (771^^) °y.
® max

ATX
26 .

Figure A2. Distribution of the amplitude to t for wet or dry days (ATX) , °F.
max

52
.

C¥TX

Figure A3 Distribution of the mean of the coefficient of variation of t for


wet or dry days (CVTX).

Figure A4. Distribution of the amplitude of the coefficient of variation of


t for wet or dry days (ACVTX),
max

53
TMMm

54
ATM

Figure A7. Distribution of the amplitude ot for wet or dry days (ATN) ,
°F.

CVTM

Figure
^ A8. Distribution of the mean of the coefficient of variation of t ,
tni
for wet or dry days (CVTN).

55
ACVTM

Figure A9. Distribution of the amplitude of the coefficient of variation of t .

for wet or dry days (ACVTN).

Figure AlO. Distribution of the mean of r for dry days (RMD) , ly.
t

56
/IX
310 250

Figure All. Distribution of the amplitude of r for dry days (AR) , ly.

250

'-220

Figure A12. Distribution of the mean of r for wet days (RM^) , ly.

57
APPENDIX B

Input Data for WGEN


Table Bl. Description of order, format, and source of input fof WGEN

Input Variable
no name Description Format Source

1 ACOM(I) Up to 80 characters of user 20A4 User supplied


comments

2 NYRS Number of years of data to be 15 User supplied


generated

KGEN Generation option code 15 User supplied


1 if p, t t , and r to be
.max min
generated
2 if actual p to be used

ALAT Station latitude, deg F5.0 User supplied

KTCF Temperature correction factor 15 User supplied


code
0 if no temperature correction
1 if some correction factor
for maximum and minimum
temperatures
2 if independent correction
factors for maximum and
minimum temperatures

KRFC Precipitation correction factor 15 User supplied


code
0 if no precipitation correction
1 if precipitation to be
corrected

3 PWW(I) Monthly probability of wet day 12F6.0 Table A1


given wet on previous day

4 PWD(I) Monthly probability of wet day 12F6.0 Table A1


given dry on previous day

5 ALPHA (I) Monthly values of gamma 12F6.0 Table A1


distribution shape parameter

6 BETA (I) Monthly values of gamma 12F6.0 Table A1


distribution scale parameter

60
Table Bl. Continued.

Input Variable
no. name Description Format Source

7 TXMD Mean of t (dry) F8.0 Figure A1


max
ATX Amplitude of t (wet or dry) F8.0 Figure A2
max
CVTX Mean of coef . of var. of t F8.0 Figure A3
max
(wet or dry)

ACVTX Amplitude of coef. of var. of F8.0 Figure A4


t (wet or dry)
max
8 TXMW Mean of t (wet) F8.0 Figure A5
max
9 TN Mean of t . (wet or dry) F8.0 Figure A6
min
ATN Amplitude of t , (wet or dry)
’ F8.0 Figure A7
min
CVTN Mean of coef . of var. of t . F8.0 Figure A8
min
(wet or dry)

ACVTN Amplitude of coef. of var. of F8.0 Figure A9


t , (wet or dry)
min
10 RMD Mean of r (dry) F8.0 Figure AlO

AR Amplitude of r (wet or dry) F8.0 Figure All

11 RMW Mean of r (wet) F8.0 Figure A12

•If KTCF = 0, skip to Input No. 15

If KTCF = 2, skip to Input No. 13

12 TM(I) Monthly values of actual mean 12F6.0 User supplied


temperature (°F)

13 TTMAX(I) Monthly values of actual mean 12F6.0 User supplied


maximum temperature (°F)

14 TTMIN(I) Monthly values of actual mean 12F6.0 User supplied


minimum temperature ("F)

If kRCF = 0, omit Input No. 15

15 RM(I) Monthly values of actual mean 12F6.0 User supplied


precipitation amount (in.)

— If KGEN = 1, omit Input No. 16

16 RAIN(I) Actual precipitation data User User supplied


specified

61
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APPENDIX C

The WGEN Program

63
TABLE C1. LISTING OF FORTRAN PROGRAM FOR WGEN.

DIMENSION TXM(366) ,TXS(366) ,TXM1 (366) ,TXS1 (366) .TNM(366) ,TNS(366)


1RMO( 366 ) RSO( 366 ) RM ( 366 ) RS ( 366 ) RC ( 366 ) RA IN( 366 ) TMAX ( 366 )
, , 1 , 1 , . ,

2TMIN(366) ,RAD(366) AC0M(2O) ,NI ( 12) .SR( 2 ) SSTX ( 2 ) SSTN( 12) ,SSRAD(
, 1 , 1 ,

32) ,SRAIN( 12) ,STMAX( 12) .STMIN( 12) ,SRAD( 1 2 ) NI I ( 1 2 ) PWW( 1 2 ) PWD( 12) , . ,

4ALPHA( 12) ,BETA( 1 2 ) TM( 1 2 ) PW( 1 2 ) TG( 1 2 ) RM( 1 2 ) RG( 12) ,RCF( 12)
, . . , ,

5NWET( 12) ,XNW( 12)


DIMENSION TAMAX( 12) .TAMIN( 12)
DIMENSION TTMAX( 12) .TTMIN( 12) ,TCFMAX( 12) ,TCFMIN( 12)
DATA NI/31 ,59,90, 120, 151 181,212,243,273,304,334,365/ ,

DATA NI 1/31 ,60,91 121 152, 182,213,244,274,305,335,366/


, ,

c* INPUT » 01 - TITLE
c* ACOM( I - LOCATION IDENTIFICATION OR OTHER USER *
c* COMMENTS. 80 CHARACTER MAXIMUM *
Q:|t******3tt***:t:Jtt*%%3(«***j(c*****:t:***:*e***:*c3ti******:t:****jJcj*c****4c**3(tJt!)tt5K*](t*:(t:(c

READ(2,98)(AC0M(I ),I=1 ,20)


98 F0RMAT(20A4)
WRI TE ( 6 99 ) ( ACOM(
, I ) ,
I = 1 , 20
99 FORMAT( ,20A4)
'
1
'

C* INPUT It 02 NUMBER OF YEARS, GENERATION CODES, AND LATITUDE *


c* NYRS YEARS OF DATA TO BE GENERATED *
c* KGEN GENERATION OPTION CODE *
c* IF KGEN = 1,RAIN, MAX TEMP, MIN TEMP, AND *
c* SOLAR RADIATION WILL BE GENERATED *
c* IF KGEN = 2 OBSERVED RAIN WILL BE USED AND *
c* MAX TEMP, MIN TEMP, SOLAR RADIATION WILL *
c* BE GENERATED *
c* ALAT STATION LATITUDE IN DEGREES *
c* KTCF TEMP. CORRECTION FACTOR OPTION CODE *
c* IF KTCF = 0 NO TEMP CORRECTION WILL BE MADE *
c* IF KTCF = 2 GENERATED MAX TEMP AND *
c* MIN TEMP WILL BE CORRECTED BASED ON *
c* OBSERVED MEAN MONTHLY MAX AND MIN TEMP
c* IF KTCF = 1 GENERATED MAX TEMP AND MIN TEMP *
c* WILL BE CORRECTED BASED ON OBSERVED MEAN *
c* MONTHLY TEMP *
c* KRCF RAIN CORRECTION FACTOR OPTION CODE *
c* IF KRCF = 1 GENERATED RAIN WILL BE CORRECTED *
c* BASED ON OBSERVED MEAN MONTHLY RAIN *
c* IF KRCF = O NO RAIN CORRECTION WILL BE MADE *

READ(2, 100) NYRS, KGEN, ALAT, KTCF KRCF ,

100 F0RMAT(2I5, F5. 0,215)


C***** CALCULATE MAXIMUM SOLAR RADIATION FOR EACH DAY
XLAT = ALAT*6. 2832/360.
DO 6 I = 1,366
XI = I
SD = 0.4102*SIN(0.0172*(XI-80.25)
CH = -TAN(XLAT)*TAN(SD)
TABLE C1. CONTINUED.

IF(CH .GT 1.0) H = O. .

IF(CH .GT 1.0) GO TO 5 .

IF(CH .LT. -1 .0)H=3 1416 .

IF(CH LT -1.0) GO TO 5
. .

H = ARCOS(CH)
DO = 1 .0+0.0335*SIN(0.0172*(XI+88.2))
RC(I ) =889. 2305*00* ((H*SIN(XLAT)*SIN( SO) )+(COS(XLAT)*COS(SD)*SlN(H)
D)
RC(I) = RC(I) * 0.8
CONTINUE
DO 7 I = 1,12
TTMAXd )=0.
TTMIN( I )=0.
RM(I) = O.
CONTINUE
IF(KGEN .EQ. 2) GO TO 10

C* NOTE--INPUTS /i'03 04 05 06 , , , ARE RAINFALL PARAMETERS


C* OMIT IF KGEN=2

C* INPUT 03 - PROBABILITY OF WET GIVEN WET


/S'

C* PWW(I) - 12 MONTHLY VALUES OF P(W/W)


C**:
READ(2,103) (PWW( I ) , 1=1 , 12)
103 FORMAT( 12F6.0)

C+ INPUT 04 - PROBABILITY OF WET GIVEN DRY


/S'

C* PWD(I) - 12 MONTHLY VALUES OF P(W/D)

READ(2, 103)(PWD(I ) , 1=1 , 12)

C* INPUT 05 - GAMMA DISTRIBUTION SHAPE PARAMETER


/S'

C* ALPHA(I) - 12 MONTHLY VALUES OF SHAPE PARAMETER

READ(2, 103) (ALPHA (I), 1=1, 12)

C* INPUT 06 /S' - GAMMA DISTRIBUTION SCALE PARAMETER


C* BETA(I) - 12 MONTHLY VALUES OF SCALE PARAMETER

READ(2, 103)(BETA(I ) , 1=1 , 12)


101 F0RMAT(9F8 .0)

C* INPUT // 07 - FOURIER COEFFICIENTS OF MAX TEMP ON DRY DAYS *


C* TXMD - MEAN OF TMAX - DRY *
C* ATX - AMPLITUDE OF TMAX - WET OR DRY *

C* CVTX - MEAN OF COEF OF VAR. OF TMAX - WET OR DRY .


*

C* ACVTX - AMPLITUDE OF COEF. OF VAR. OF TMAX - WET OR DRY *

10 READ(2,101) TXMD, ATX, CVTX, ACVTX

65
TABLE C1. CONTINUED.

C* INPUT 08 - FOURIER COEFFICIENTS OF MAX TEMP ON WET DAYS


C* TXMW - MEAN OF TMAX - WET

READ(2, 101 ) TXMW

C* INPUT 09 - FOURIER COEFFICIENTS OF MIN TEMP


/S'

C* TN - MEAN OF TMIN - WET OR DRY


C* ATN - AMPLITUDE OF TMIN - WET OR DRY
C* CVTN - MEAN OF COEF. OF VAR. OF TMIN - WET OR DRY
C* ACVTN - AMPLITUDE OF COEF. OF VAR. OF TMIN - WET OR DRY

READ(2.101) TN, ATN, CVTN, ACVTN

C+ INPUT /y 10 - FOURIER COEFFICIENTS OF RAD ON DRY DAYS


C* RMD - MEAN OF RAD - DRY
C* AR - AMPLITUDE OF RAD - WET OR DRY

READ(2, 101 ) RMD,AR


CVRD = 0.24
ACVRD = -0.08

C* INPUT U - FOURIER COEFFICIENTS OF RAD ON WET DAYS


C* RMW - MEAN OF RAD - WET

READ(2, 101 ) RMW


CVRW = 0.48
ACVRW = -0.13
D1 = TXMD - TXMW
D2 = RMD - RMW
IF(KTCF .EO. O) GO TO 12
IF(KTCF .EO. 2) GO TO 8

C* INPUT ^2 - MONTHLY VALUES OF ACTUAL MEAN TEMP *


C* OMIT IF KTCF = 0 OR 2 *
C* TM(I) - 12 MONTHLY VALUES OF ACTUAL MEAN TEMP *

READ(2, 103)(TM( I ) , 1=1 , 12)


GO TO 12
Q**:t:*:|c>K«;t:*i|<«***:|E:f«*«*>«::4<:;,:t:4:«********>|c****>l<**it<4:**** + **«**>l<*>t<*****4c>l<

C* INPUT /S' MONTHLY VALUES OF ACTUAL MEAN MAX TEMP


13 - *
C* OMIT IF KTCF = O OR 1
C* TTMAX(I) - 12 MONTHLY VALUES OF ACTUAL MEAN MAX TEMP *

8 READ(2,103) ( TTMAX ( I ) ,
I = 1 , 1 2

C* INPUT /^ MONTHLY VALUES OF ACTUAL MEAN MIN TEMP


14 -
C* OMIT IF KTCF = O OR 1

C* TTMIN(I) - 12 MONTHLY VALUES OF ACTUAL MEAN MIN TEMP

66
) ) ) ) . , , ) .

TABLE C1. CONTINUED.

READ(2,103) (TTMIN(I),I=1, 12)


12 IF(KRCF .EO. O) GO TO 13

C* INPUT /S' 15 - MONTHLY VALUES OF ACTUAL MEAN RAINFALL *


C* OMIT IF KRCF =0 *
C* RM(I) = 12 MONTHLY VALUES OF ACTUAL MEAN RAINFALL *

READ(2, 103)(RM( I ) 1=1 12) , ,

13 WRITE(6,700)
700 FORMAT(////, 10X, 'GENERATION PARAMETERS' ,//, 15X, 'PRECIPITATION'
WRITE(6,701)(PWW(I),I=1, 12)
701 F0RMAT(20X, 'P(W/W) ',12F7.3)
WRITE(6,702) ( PWD ( I ) I = 1 2 , 1 ,

702 F0RMAT(20X, 'P(W/D) ',12F7.3)


WRITE(6,703) ( ALPHA( I ) I = 1 1 2 . ,

703 FORMAT (20X, 'ALPHA ',12F7.3)


WRITE(6.704) ( BETA ( I ) I = 1 1 2 . .

704 F0RMAT(20X, 'BETA ',12F7.3)


WRI TE ( 6 705 )TXMD ATX CVTX ACVTX TXMW
, , , , ,

705 FORMAT( 15X, 'MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE ',/, 20X ,' TXMD = F8 3 / 20X ' , .
, .

* 'ATX = ,F8.3,/.20X, 'CVTX =


' F8 3 / 20X ACVTX = F8 3 / 20X ' , . . ,
,
' ' , .
, .

* 'TXMW = .F8.3,//)'

WRITE(6,706)TN, ATN.CVTN, ACVTN


706 FORMAT( 15X, 'MINIMUM TEMPERATURE ',/, 20X .' TN = F8 3 / 20X ' . . , ,

*'ATW = ,F8.3,/,20X, 'CVTN =


' F8 3 / 20X ACVTN = ',F8.3,//) ' , . , .
.
'

WRITE(6.707)RMD,AR.RMW
707 FORMAT( 15X, 'SOLAR RADIATION' ,/, 20X ,' RMD = F8 3 / 20X ' , . , ,

* 'AR = .F8.3./,20X, 'RMW = ',F8.3,///)


'

DO 11 d = 1,366
XJ = d
DT = COS( .0172*(Xd-200. )
DR = COS( .0172*(Xd-172. ))
TXM(d) = TXMD+ATX+DT
XCR 1 =CVTX+ACVTX DT
IF(XCR1 .LT. 0.0) XCR1=0.06
TXS(d)=TXM(d)*XCR1
TXMI(d) = TXM(d) - D1
TXS1(d)=TXM1(d)*XCR1
TNM(d) = TN + ATN*DT
XCR2=CVTN+ACVTN*DT
IF(XCR2 .LT. 0.0) XCR2=0.06
TNS(d)=TNM(d)*XCR2
RMO(d) = RMD+AR DR
XCR3=CVRD+ACVRD*DR
IF(XCR3 .LT. 0.0) XCR3=0.06
RS0(d)=RM0(d)*XCR3
RM1(d) = RMO(d) - D2
XCR4=CVRW+ACVRW*DR
IF(XCR4 .LT. 0.0) XCR4=0.06
RS1(d)=RM1(d)*XCR4

67
TABLE C1. CONTINUED.

11 CONTINUE
DO 22 IM=1 , 12
XNW(IM) = O.
SR( IM) =0.
SSTX(IM) = O.
SSTN(IM) = 0.
SSPAD(IM) = O.
TCFMAX(IM) = 0.0
TCFMIN(IM) = 0.0
RCF(IM) = 1.0
PW(IM) = PWD(IM)/( 1
.
-PWW( IM)+PWD( IM)
51 =
O.
52 = O.
53 = O.
NL = NI(IM)
IF( IM EO . . 1 ) GO TO 14
NF = NI ( IM- 1 ) + 1

GO TO 15
14 NF = 1

15 CONTINUE
ZN = NL - NF + 1

DO 16 d NF.NL =
51 = SI + TXM(d)/ZN
52 = S2 + TXM1(d)/ZN
53 = S3 + TNM(J)/ZN
16 CONTINUE
C*****CALCULATE MONTHLY RAINFALL CORRECTION FACTOR
RG(IM) = ALPHA( IM)*BETA( IM)*ZN*PW( IM)
IF(KRCF .EO. O ) GO TO 17
RCF(IM) = RM( IM)/RG( IM)
17 IF(KTCF .EO. O) GO TO 22
C***+*CALCULATE MONTHLY TEMP CORRECTION FACTOR
IF(KTCF.E0.2) GO TO 18
TMD = (SI + S3) / 2.
TMW = (S2 + S3) / 2.
TG(IM) = TMW*PW(IM)+TMD*( l-PW(IM)
TCFMAX(IM) = TM(IM) - TG(IM)
TCFMIN(IM) = TCFMAX(IM)
GO TO 22
18 TAMAX( IM)=S2 + PW( IM) + S 1 * (1 -PW( IM ) .

TAMIN( IM)=S3
IF(KTCF EO. O. ) GO TO 22
.

TCFMAX(IM)=TTMAX( IM)-TAMAX( IM)


TCFMIN( IM)=TTMIN( IM)-TAMIN( IM)
22 CONTINUE
IFCKRCF .EO. 0) GO TO 52
WRITE(6,712)(RM(I),I=1, 12)
712 FORMAT( 10X, 'ACT MEAN RA IN 2F7 ' , 1 . 2
WRITE(6,713) (RG(I ) 1=1 12) . .

713 FORMAT( 10X, EST MEAN RA IN 1 2F7


' ' , . 2

68
) ) ) )

TABLE C1. CONTINUED.

WRITE(6,714) (RCF( I ) 1= . 1 , 12)


714 FORMAT( 10X, 'RAIN CF ',12F7.3)
52 IF (KTCF .EO. 0) GO TO 19
IF(KTCF .EO. 2) GO TO 51
WRITE(6,708) ( TM( I ) I = 2 , 1 , 1

708 FORMAT( 10X, 'ACT MEAN TEMP ' , 1 2F7 . 1 )


WRITE(6,71 )(TG( I ) 1 = 1 12) 1 , ,

711 FORMAT( 10X EST MEAN TEMP ,


' ' , 1 2F7 . 1

GO TO 50
51 WRITE(6.722) ( TTMAX ( I ) I = , 1 ,
1 2
722 FORMAT( 10X, 'ACT MEAN TMAX ' , 1 2F7 . 1 )

WRITE(6,723) ( TTMIN( I ) I = , 1 , 1 2
723 FORMATdOX, 'ACT MEAN TMIN '
,
1 2F7 . 1 )

WRITE(6,720) ( TAMAX ( I ) I = , 1 . 1 2
720 FORMAT( lOX, 'EST MEAN TMAX ' . 1 2F7 . 1 )

WRITE(G,721) (TAMINd ) 1 = , 1 , 12)


721 FORMAT( 10X, 'EST MEAN TMIN ' , 1 2F7 .
1

50 WRITE(6,709) ( TCFMAX ( I ) I = , 1 . 1 2
709 FORMAT( 10X, 'CF MEAN TMAX ', . 1 2F7 .
1

WRITE(6.724) ( TCFMIN{ I ) I = , 1 , 1 2
724 FORMAT( 10X, 'CF MEAN TMIN' . , 12F7 .
1

19 XYR = NYRS
SYTX = 0.
SYTN = O.
SYRAD = O.
SYR = 0.
SYNW = 0.
DO 40 I = ,NYRS 1

lYR = I
IF(KGEN EO. 1 ) GO TO 20.

KK = O
IJ = 1

C* INPUT /y 16 - MEASURED RAINFALL FOR NYRS


C* OMIT IF KGEN = 1
C* RAIN(I) “ ACTUAL RAINFALL DATA - ONE VALUE PER DAY *
C* FOR NYRS *

21 READ(2,102) I YR MO IDAY RA IN( , , , I d )

102 F0RMAT(4X,3I2,2OX,F1O.O)
IF(KK EO. 1 ) GO TO 24
.

20 IDAYS = 365
IFLG= M0D(IYR,4)
IFdFLG .EO. O) IDAYS = 366
KK = 1
IF(KGEN .EO. 1) GO TO 28
24 Id = Id + 1

IFdd .LE. IDAYS) GO TO 21


28 CONTINUE

69
TABLE C1. CONTINUED.

CALL WGEN(PWW.PWD. ALPHA, BETA, TXM.TXS.TXMI TXS 1 TNM, TNS RMO, RSO,, , .

+RM1 ,RS1 RAIN, TMAX, TWIN, RAD, KGEN,RC. IDAYS.NI Nil


, ,

*TCFMAX,TCFMIN,RCF)
DO 23 IM = 1 , 12
SRAIN(IM) = O.
STMAX(IM) = 0.
STMIN(IM) = O.
SRAD(IM) = O.
NWET(IM) = 0
23 CONTINUE
IM = 1

YTMAX = 0.
YTMIN = 0.
YRAD = O.
RYR = O.
NYWET = 0
IDA = O
DO 30 U=1 IDAYS ,

IDA = IDA + 1

IFdDAYS 366) GO TO 27 .EO.


.

IF(J .GT. NI(IM)) GO TO 251


GO TO 29
251 IM = IM -I
1

IDA = 1
GO TO 29
27 IF(d .GT. NII(IM)) GO TO 251
29 CONTINUE
C * **THE FOLLOWING STATEMENT WRITES DAILY GENERATED WEATHER ON AN

C*** EXTERNAL FILE (UNIT 8).


WRITE(8,200)IM, IDA, IYR,d,RAIN( J) ,TMAX( J),TMIN(U),RAD(d)
800 CONTINUE
c* + *THE FOLLOWING STATEMENT PRINTS DAILY GENERATED WEATHER
WRITE(6,200)IM, IDA I YR d RA IN( d ) TMAX ( d ) TMIN( J ) RAD( U
, , , , , ,

200 F0RMAT(2X,4I5,F7.2,3F7.0)
25 CONTINUE
IF(RAIN(d) .LT. 0.005) GO TO 26
NWET(IM) = NWET(IM) + 1
NYWET = NYWET + 1
26 CONTINUE
SRAIN( IM) SRAIN( IM) + RAIN(d)
STMAX( IM) STMAX( IM) + TMAX(d)
STMIN( IM) STMIN(IM) + TMIN(d)
SRAD(IM) = SRAD(IM) + RAD(d)
RYR = RYR + RAIN(d)
30 CONTINUE
XNM1 = O.
DO 35 IM = 12 1 ,

XXN = NI(IM)
XNI = XXN - XNM1
XNM1 = XXN

70
)

TABLE C1. CONTINUED.

ANW = NWET( IM)


XNW(IM) = XNW(IM) + ANW/XYR
SR(IM) = SR(IM) + SRAIN(IM) / XYR
STMAX(IM) = STMAX(IM)/ XNI
SSTX(IM) = SSTX(IM) + STMAX(IM) / XYR
STMIN(IM) = STMIN(IM) / XNI
SSTN(IM) = SSTN(IM) + STMIN(IM) / XYR
SRAD(IM) = SRAD(IM) / XNI
SSRAD(IM) = SSRAD(IM) + SRAD(IM) / XYR
YTMAX = YTMAX + STMAX(IM) / 12.
YTMIN = YTMIN + STMIN(IM) / 12.
YRAD = YRAD + SRAD(IM) / 12.
35 CONTINUE
SYTX = SYTX + YTMAX/XYR
SYTN = SYTN + YTMIN/XYR
SYRAD = SYRAD + YRAD / XYR
SYR = SYR + RYR / XYR
XYNW = NYWET
SYNW = SYNW + XYNW / XYR
WRITE(6,201) lYR
201 F0RMAT(//,5X, 'SUMMARY FOR YEAR 1 5 / 2X ' , , ,
,
' MONTH 1

*2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
* 11 12 YR' ,/)
WRITE(6,207)(NWET(IM) IM=1 12) .NYWET
, .

207 F0RMAT(2X 'WET DAYS


,
',1318)
WRITE(6,202)(SRAIN( IM) IM=1 12) ,RYR , ,

202 F0RMAT(2X, 'RAINFALL ',13F8.2)


WRITE(6. 203)(STMAX( IM) IM=1 12) .YTMAX ,
.

203 F0RMAT(2X 'AVE MAX TEMP


.
1 3F8 2 ' , .

WRITE(6.204)(STMIN( IM) IM=1 12) .YTMIN , ,

204 F0RMAT(2X, 'AVE MIN TEMP 1 3F8 2) ' . .

WRITE(6,205)(SRAD(IM) IM=1 12) .YRAD , ,

205 F0RMAT(2X, 'AVE RAD ',13F8.2)


40 CONTINUE
WRITE(G, 206)NYRS
206 F0RMAT(///,5X, 'SUMMARY FOR 1 5 YEARS ) ' , , ' '

WRITE(6,208)(XNW( IM) IM=1 12) .SYNW


, ,

208 F0RMAT(2X, 'WET DAYS ',13F8.2)


WRITE(6.202) (SR( IM) IM=1 12) SYR
, , ,

WRITE(6, 203) (SSTX( IM) IM=1 12) .SYTX, ,

WRITE(6,204)(SSTN(IM) IM=1 12) ,SYTN , ,

WRITE(6,205)(SSRAD(IM) IM=1 12) .SYRAD , ,

999 STOP
END
C**+**THE FOLLOWING SUBROUTINE GENERATES DAILY WEATHER DATA FOR
C****+ONE YEAR.
SUBROUTINE WGEN( PWW PWD .ALPHA BETA TXM TXS TXM1 TXS TNM TNS RMO,
, , , , , , 1 , , ,

IRSO.RMI ,RS1 ,RAIN,TMAX,TMIN,RAD,KGEN,RC, IDAYS.NI .Nil .

2TCFMAX,TCFMIN.RCF)

71
TABLE C1. CONTINUED.

DIMENSION TXM(366) ,TXS(366) ,TXM1 (366)


1 TXS1(366) ,TNM( 366) ,TNS( 366) .RMO( 366) ,RSO( 366) ,RM1( 366) .RS 1(366 )
2 RAIN(366) TMAX ( 366 ) TMIN( 366 ) RAD 366 ) RC ( 366 ) A ( 3 3 ) B( 3 3 )
, . , ( , , , , .

3XIM1(3),E(3),R(3),X(3),RR(3) ,PWW( 12) ,PWD( 12) ALPHA ( 12) .BETA ( 12) .

4NI( 12) ,NII( 12) ,TCF( 12hRCF( 12)


DIMENSION TCFMAX( 12) ,TCFMIN( 12)
DATA A/0 567 0 253 -0 006 0 086 0 504 -O 039 -0 002 -0 050 0 244/
. , .
.
. . . , .
.
.
.
.
.
. . .

DATA B/0.781 ,0.328,0.238,0.0,0.637,-0.341 ,0.0,0.0,0.873/


DATA XIM1/0. ,0. ,0./
DATA IX/9398039/
DATA IP/0/
IM = 1
DO 50 IDAY=1,IDAYS
IFdDAYS .EQ. 366) GO TO 2
IFdDAY .GT. NI(IM)) IM = IM + 1

GO TO 4
CM
IFdDAY .GT. NII(IM)) IM = IM + 1
CONTINUE
IF(KGEN .EQ. 2) GO TO 15
O ***+*DETERMINE WET OR DRY DAY USING MARKOV CHAIN MODEL
CALL RANDN(RN)
IF(IP-O) 7,7,10
h-
IF(RN - PWD(IM ) ) 1 1 1 ,8 , 1

CO IP = O
RAIN(IDAY) = O.
GO TO 18
10 IF(RN-PWW(IM ))11,11.8
11 IP = 1

C*****DETERMINE RAINFALL AMOUNT FOR WET DAYS USING GAMMA DISTRIBUTION


AA = ./ALPHA(IM)
1

AB = /( -ALPHA(IM)
1 . 1
.

TR1 = EXP(-18.42/AA)
TR2 = EXP(-18.42/AB)
SUM = 0.
SUM2 = 0.
12 CALL RANDN(RNI)
CALL RANDN(RN2)
IF(RNI-TRI) 61,61,62
61 SI = 0.
GO TO 63
62 SI = RN1**AA
63 IF(RN2-TR2) 64,64,65
64 S2 = O.
GO TO 66
65 S2 = RN2**AB
66 S12 = SI + S2
IF(S12-1.) 13,13,12
13 Z = S1/S12
CALL RANDN(RN3)
RAIN(IDAY) = -Z*AL0G(RN3)*BETA(IM)*RCF( IM)
TABLE C1. CONTINUED.

C*****RAIN(IDAY) IS GENERATED RAINFALL FOR IDAY


15 IF(RAIN(IDAY)) 16,16,17
16 IP = 0
GO TO 18
17 IP = 1

18 IF(IP-I) 25,26,26
C*****GENERATE TMAX TMIN, AND RAD FOR IDAY
,

25 RM=RMO(IDAY)
RS = RSO(IDAY)
TXXM = TXM(IDAY)
TXXS = TXS(IDAY)
GO TO 27
26 RM = RMI(IDAY)
RS = RSI(IDAY)
TXXM = TXMI(IDAY)
TXXS = TXSI(IDAY)
27 CONTINUE
DO 30 K = 1,3
131 AA = O.
CALL RANDN(RNI)
CALL RANDN(RN2)
V = S0RT(-2.*AL0G(RN1 ))*C0S(6.283185*RN2)
IF(ABS(V) .GT. 2.5) GO TO 131
E(K) = V
30 CONTINUE
DO 31 I = 1,3
R(I) = 0.
RR(I) = 0.
31 CONTINUE
DO 32 I = 1,3
DO 32 d = 1,3
R(I) = R(I)+B(I,d)*E(J)
RR(I) = RR(I) + A( I ,d)*XIM1 (d)
32 CONTINUE
DO 37 K = 1 ,3
X(K) = R(K) + RR(K)
XIM1(K) = X(K)
37 CONTINUE
TMAX(IDAY) = X(1) * TXXS + TXXM
TMIN(IDAY) = X(2)*TNS(IDAY)+TNM(IDAY)
IF(TMIN(IDAY) GT TMAX(IDAY)) GO TO 38
. .

GO TO 39
38 TMM = TMAX(IDAY)
TMAX(IDAY) = TMIN(IDAY)
TMIN(IDAY) = TMM
39 CONTINUE
TMAX( IDAY) =TMAX( IDAY )+TCFMAX(IM)
TMIN( IDAY)=TMIN( IDAY )+TCFMIN( IM)
C*****TMAX( IDAY) IS GENERATED TMAX FDR IDAY
C*****TMIN( IDAY) IS GENERATED TMIN FOR IDAY

73
TABLE C1. CONTINUED.

RAD(IDAY) = X(3)*RS+RM
RMIN = 0.2*RC(IDAY)
IF(RAD(IDAY) LT RMIN) RAD(IDAY) = RMIN
. .

IF(RAD(IDAY) GT RC(IDAY)) RAD(IDAY) = RC(IDAY)


. .

C**** + RAD( IDAY ) IS GENERATED RAD FOR IDAY


50 CONTINUE
RETURN
END
C*****THE FOLLOWING SUBROUTINE GENERATES A UNIFORM RANDOM NUMBER ON
c+****the interval O - 1

SUBROUTINE RANDN(YFL)
DIMENSION K(4)
DATA K/2510, 7692. 2456, 3765/
K(4) = 3*K(4)+K(2)
K(3) = 3*K(3)+K( 1
K(2)=3*K(2)
K( 1) = 3*K( 1 )
I=K( 1 )/1000
K( 1 )=K( 1 )-I*1000
K(2)=K(2) + I
I = K(2)^00
K(2)=K(2)-100*I
K(3) = K(3)+I
I = K(3)/1000
K(3)=K(3)-I*1000
K(4)=K(4)+I
I = K(4)/100
K(4)=K(4)-100*I
YFL=( ( (FLOAT(K( 1 ) ) * . 00 1 +FLOAT ( K( 2 ) )
) * .
01 +FLOAT( K( 3 ) )
) * . 001 +FLOAT
(K(4) ) )* .01
RETURN
END

74
APPENDIX D

The WGEN PAR Program

75
TABLE D1. LISTING OF FORTRAN PROGRAM FOR WGEN PAR.

C* *
C* DEE ALLEN WRIGHT
C* COMPUTER PROGRAMMER
C* FEBRUARY 25, 1983
C*

DIMENSION TMAX(20,365) ,TMIN(20,365) ,RAIN(20,365) ,RAD(20.365)


DIMENSION AA(20)
DIMENSION RC(365)
DIMENSION XDATA(30) YDATA(4, 12)
,

D01I=1 ,30
XDATA( I )=0.0
1 CONTINUE
D02I=1 ,4
D02J=1 12 ,

YDATA( I ,U)=0.0
2 CONTINUE

READ(5, 100)(AA(I ) , 1=1 ,20)


100 F0RMAT(20A4)
WRITE(6,101) (AA( I ) 1=1 ,20) ,

101 FORMAT( 1 ,//,30X, 'DATA IS


' ' ',20A4,//)

READ(5, 102) NYRS,ALAT


102 F0RMAT(I10,F10.0)
C*****CALCULATE MAXIMUM SOLAR RADIATION FOR EACH DAY.
XYRS=NYRS
XLAT=ALAT*6 .2832/360.
DO 6 I = 1 , 365
XI = I

SD = 0.4102*SIN(0.0172*(XI-80.25)
CH = -TAN(XLAT)*TAN(SD)
IF (CH .GT. 1.0) H = O.
IF (CH .GT. 1.0) GO TO 5
IF(CH .LT. -1.0) H = 3. 1416
IF(CH .LT -1.0) GO TO 5
.

H = ARCOS(CH)
5 DD=1 .0+0. 0335*SIN(0. 0172 *(XI+88.2))
RC( I ) =889.2305*00* ( (H*SIN(XLAT)*SIN(SD) )+(COS(XLAT)*COS(SD)*SIN(H)
*))
RC( I )=RC( I )*0.80
)

TABLE D1 CONTINUED.

6 CONTINUE
DO 7 I = 1,NYRS
DO 7 0 = 1,365

c* *
C* INPUT /1'3 MO, DAY. YEAR, MAX TEMP, MIN TEMP. RAINFALL. RADIATION
C*
(;**++*+**+****************•*•*****+
8 READ(5,103) IMO IDA I YR V 1 V2 V3 V4
. . . , , ,

IF(IMO .EO. 2 .AND. IDA .EQ. 29) GO TO 8


TMAX(I.d) = VI
TMINd.d) = V2
RAINd.d) = V3
RADd.J) = V4
IF(RADd,d) .GT. RC(J)) RAD(I J)=RC(J) .

7 CONTINUE
103 F0RMAT(3I2,3F6.0.6X.F6.0)
WRITE(6. 104)
104 FORMAT( 1 .///.5X, 'MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE',/)
' '

C+****CALCULATE TMAX PARAMETERS


CALL MSD(NYRS, TMAX, RAIN, 1 .XDATA)
WRITE(6, 105)
105 FORMAT( 1 ,///5X, 'MINIMUM TEMPERATURE',/)
' '

C*****CALCULATE TMIN PARAMETERS


CALL MSD(NYRS, TMIN, RAIN, 2. XDATA)
WRITE(6, 106)
106 FORMAT( 1 ,///,5X, 'SOLAR RADIATION ',/)
' '

C*****CALCULATE RAD PARAMETERS


CALL MSD(NYRS, RAD, RAIN, 3, XDATA)
WRITE(6. 107)
107 FORMAT( 1 ,///,5X, 'PRECIPITATION'
' '

C****+CALCULATE RAINFALL PARAMETERS


CALL PPRAIN(RAIN,NYRS, YDATA)
C--PHASE ANGLE SHIFTED BY 180 DEGREES
C--AND SIGNS CHANGED ON AMPLITUDES
XDATA(02)=XDATA(02)*(-1 .0)
XDATA(04)=XDATA(04)*(-1 .0)
XDATA( 10)=XDATA( 10)*(-1 .0)
XDATA ( 12)=XDATA( 12)'»(-1 .0)
XDATA ( 14)=XDATA( 14)*(-1 .0)
WRITE(6,101) (AAd ) 1 = 1 ,20) ,

C*****WRITE GENERATION PARAMETERS FOR INPUT TO WGEN PROGRAM


WRITE(6,707)
707 F0RMAT(///,2OX. 'INPUT CARDS FOR THE WEATHER GENERATOR ARE AS FOLLO
*WS ,////)
WRITE(6,403)
403 FORMAT(///)
WRITE(6,513) (YDATAd.U) 12 )
WRITE(6,514) (YDATA(2.d) 12 )

WRITE(6.515) (YDATA(3,d) 12 )

77
TABLE D1. CONTINUED.

WRITE(6.516) (YDATA (4, J) ,d=1 12) ,

513 F0RMAT(5X. INPUT tf 3


' P(W/W) ‘
'
, 12F6.3)
514 F0RMAT(5X, INPUT If 4
' P(W/D) ‘

, 12F6.3)
515 F0RMAT(5X, INPUT
' 5 tt ALPHA '
, 12F6 .3)
516 F0RMAT(5X, INPUT # 6
' BETA ’
, 12F6.3)
WRITE(6,400)
400 FORMAT(////)
WRITE(6,701
WRITE(6,501 XDATA(01
WRITE(6.502) XDATA(02)
WRITE(6,503) XDATA(03)
WRITE(6,504) XDATA(04)
F0RMAT(5X, IINPUT H 1 -' ./)
701


'

501 FORMAT( 15X, 1 TXMD '


,F10.3)
502 FORMAT( 15X . 2'
ATX .F10.3)
503 FORMAT( 15X, 3'
CVTX /
.F10.3)
504 FORMAT( 15X ,
4 ACVTX — /
,F10.3)
WRITE(6,702)
702 F0RMAT(//.5X INPUT H 8
,
' ./)
WRITE(6,505) XDATA(05)
505 FORMAT( 15X. 5 TXMW ,F10.3)
WRITE(6, 703)
703 F0RMAT(//.5X INPUT H 9
,
' ./)
WRITE(6.506) XDATA(09)
WRITE(6,507) XDATA( 10)
WRITE(6.508) XDATA( 1 ) 1

WRITE(6,509) XDATA( 12)


506
507
508
FORMAT( 15X,
FORMAT( 15X,
FORMAT( 15X,
6
7
8
'
TN
ATN
CVTN
— /

'
,
,F10.3)
,F10.3)
,F10.3)
509 FORMAT( 15X, 9 ACVTN —_—_ ,F10.3)
WRITE(6,704)
704 F0RMAT(//,5X INPUT H 10
,
' './)
WRITE(6.510) XDATA( 13)
WRITE(6,51 1 ) XDATA( 14)
510 FORMAT( 15X. 10 '
RMD '
,
.F10.3)
51 1 FORMAT( 15X, 1 AR 1
'
1
,F10.3)
WRITE(6,705)
705 F0RMAT(//,5X INPUT # ./)


,
' 1

WRITE(6,512) XDATA( 17)


512 FORMAT( 15X, 12 RMW ,F10.3)
WRITE(6,600)
600 FORMAT('I')
STOP
END
C*****THE FOLLOWING SUBROUTINE CALCULATES A ONE HARMONIC FOURIER SERIES
SUBROUTINE FOUR ( XM SO CV XDATA , . ,

DIMENSION XM( 13) ,SD( 13)


DIMENSION CV( 13)
DIMENSION XDATA(30)

78
) ) ) ) ) )

TABLE D1. CONTINUED.

DATA JCT /O/


S = 0.
51 = 0.
52 = O.
WRITE(6,200)
200 F0RMAT(//,33X, ' PERIOD MEAN 5TDDEV CV')
DO 10 I = 1,13
WRITE(6.201)I,XM(I),5D(I),CV(I)
201 F0RMAT(30X. I 10.3F10.2)
5 = 5 + XM(I)
51 = 51 + 5D(I)
52 = 52 + CV(I)
10 CONTINUE
XBAR=S/13.
XBAR1=51/13.
XBAR2=S2/13.
5UMA = O.
5UMB = O.
5UMA1 = 0.
5UMB1 = 0.
SUMA2=0.
5UMB2 = 0.
DO 15 K = 1,13
XK = K
5UMA=5UMA+(XM(K)-XBAR)*C05(6 .2832*XK/13.
5UMA1=5UMA1+(5D(K)-XBAR1 )*C05(6.2832*XK/13.
5UMA2=5UMA2+(CV(K)-XBAR2)*C05(6.2832*XK/13.
5UMB=5UMB+(XM(K)-XBAR)*5IN(6.2832*XK/13.
5UMB1=5UMB1+(5D(K)-XBAR1 )*5IN(6.2832*XK/13.
5UMB2 = 5UMB2+(CV(K)-XBAR2)*5InU.2832*XK/13. )

15 CONTINUE
A = 5UMA*(2./13.
A1= 5UMA1*(2 ./13.
A2 = 5UMA2*(2./13.
B = 5UMB*(2./13.
B1 = 5UMB1*(2./13.
B2 = SUMB2*(2./13.
T = ATAN(-B/A)
T1= ATAN(-B1/A1)
T2=ATAN(-B2/A2)
C = A/C05(T)
Cl = A1/C0S(T1)
C2 = A2/C05(T2)
WRITE(6, 100)
100 FORMAT(/. 15X, 'FOURIER C0EFFICIENT5--MEAN'
WRITE(6, 101 ) XBAR,C,T
101 FORMAT( 15X 'MEAN =', F 10 4 5X ,' AMPLITUDE =
,
. , ' , F 10 4 5X
. ,
,
' PHASE =',
F10.4)
JCT=JCT+1
XDATA( JCT)=XBAR

79
TABLE D1. CONTINUED.

dCT=dCT+1
XDATA(dCT)=C
WRITE(6, 102)
102 FORMAT(/, 15X, 'FOURIER COEFFICIENTS--STD . DEV.')
WRITE(6, 101 )XBAR1 .Cl ,T1
WRITE(6, 103)
103 FORMAT(/. 15X, 'FOURIER COEEFICIENTS--CV'
WRITE(6,101) XBAR2,C2,T2
dCT=dCT+1
XDATA(dCT)=XBAR2
dCT=dCT+1
XDATA(dCT)=C2
RETURN
END
C*****THE FOLLOWING SUBROUTINE CALCULATES THE STATISTICS OF TMAX, TMIN, AND RAD
C***+*BY 28-DAY PERIOD OF THE YEAR AND FITS A FOURIER SERIES TO THE RESULTS.
SUBROUTINE MSD ( NYRS W RAIN ID XDATA , , , ,

DIMENSION W(20.365) ,RAIN(20.365) ,XM( 13) .XM1( 13) .SD( 13),SD1( 13)
DIMENSION CX( 13) ,CX1( 13)
DIMENSION XDATA(30)
DO 20 I = 1,13
NF=I*28
NI=NF-27
XN =
O.
XN1 O. =
SUM = 0.
SUM1 = O.
SS = 0.
SSI = O.
DO 15 dD=NI ,NF
DO 15 dY = 1 ,NYRS
IF(ID .EO. 2) GO TO 11
IF(RAIN(dY,dD) ) 11,11,12
11 CONTINUE
XN = XN + 1
SUM = SUM+W(dY,dD)
SS = SS + (W(dY,dD)*W(dY.dD))
GO TO 15
12 CONTINUE
XN1 = XN1 + 1
SUM1 = SUM1 + W(dY,dD)
SS1=SS1+(W(dY,dD)*W(dY,dD)
15 CONTINUE
IF(XN LE 2. ) XM(I ) = 0
. .

IF(XN LE 2. ) SD(I ) = 0
. .

IF(XN LE 2. ) CX(I) = 0
. .

IF(XN LE 2. ) GO TO 400
. .

XM(I) = SUM / XN
SD(I) = SORT( (SS-SUM*SUM/XN)/(XN-1 . )

IF(XM(I) .LT. 0.001) XM(I) = 0.001


) ) )

TABLE D1. CONTINUED.

CX(I) = SD(I) / XM(I)


400 CONTINUE
IF(ID .EO. 2 ) GO TO 20
IF(XN1 .LE 2 ) XM1(I)=0.
IF(XN1 .LE 2 ) sold ) = O.
IF(XN1 .LE 2 ) CX1(I) = 0.
IF(XN1 •LE 2 ) GO TO 500
XM1(I) = SUM1 / XN1
SD1( I )=SORT( (SS1-SUM1+SUM1/XN1 )/(XN1-1 ) .

IF(XM1(I) .LT. 0.001) XM1(I) = 0.001


CX1(I)=SD1(I)/XM1(I)
500 CONTINUE
20 CONTINUE
IF(ID .EO. 2) GO TO 25
WRITE(6, 100)
100 FORMAT( 10X. 'DRY DAYS')
CALL FOUR(XM.SD,CX,XDATA)
WRITE(6, 101
101 FORMAT(/, 10X, 'WET DAYS')
CALL F0UR(XM1 ,SD1 ,CX1 .XDATA)
GO TO 30
25 WRITE(6. 102)
102 FORMAT( 10X, 'WET AND DRY DAYS')
CALL FOUR(XM, SO. CX, XDATA)
30 CONTINUE
RETURN
END
**THIS SUBROUTINE CALCULATES THE RAINFALL GENERATION PARAMETERS
c*** USING THE MARKOV CHAIN-GAMMA MODEL
SUBROUTINE PPRAIN( XRAIN NYR YOATA , ,

DIMENSION XRAIN(20.365)
DIMENSION NWD( 12) ,NDD( 12) ,NDW( 12) ,NWW( 12)
DIMENSION SUM( 12) ,SUM2( 12) ,SUM3( 12)
DIMENSION SL( 12) ,PWW( 12) ,PWD( 12) ,RBAR( 12)
DIMENSION ALPHA( 12) ,BETA( 12)
DIMENSION NW( 12) ICd2) .SUML( 12)
,

DIMENSION RLBAR( 12) AL2( 12) ,BE2( 12) .DATE { 12)


,

DIMENSION PPPW( 12) ,ND( 12)


DIMENSION YDATA(4,12)
CHARACTER 36 A(2)
DATA DATE / ' JAN.
FEB
' , ' .
'
,
' MAR .
'
, ' APR .

'
,
' MAY '.'JUNE',
'JULY' .
'AUG. '
,
'SEP. '
,
'OCT. '
.
'NOV. '
.
'DEC. '/
DATA A( 1 ) /' '/
DATA A(2) /'NOT ENOUGH DATA TO DEFINE PARAMETERS'/
DO 10 I =1,12
ND(I) =0
PPPW( I ) = 0.
NWD(I) = 0
NWW(I) = 0
NDD(I) = 0

81
TABLE D1. CONTINUED.

NDW(I) =0
NW( I ) = 0
SL( I ) = O.
SUML(I) = 0.
SUM( I ) = 0.
SUM2(I) = O.
PWW( I ) =0.
PWD( I ) = O.
ALPHA(I) = 0.
BETA(I) = O.
10 SUM3( I ) = O.
XYR=NYR
RIM1 = O.
DO 20 J = 1,NYR
DO 30 K = 1 365
,

IF(K GE . 001 .AND. K . LE . 031 ) MO = 1

IF(K .GE . 032 AND K


. . . LE . 059) MO = 2
IF(K .GE. 060 .AND. K . LE . 090) MO = 3
IF(K .GE. 091 AND K
. . . LE . 120) MO = 4
IF(K GE. • 121 .AND. K . LE . 151 ) MO = 5
IF(K .GE. AND 152) . . K . LE . 181 MO = 6
IF(K .GE AND . 212)
182 . . K . LE . MO = 7
IF(K .GE 213 AND . 243) . . K . LE . MO = 8
IF(K .GE 244 AND . 273) . . K . LE . MO = 9
IF(K .GE 274 .AND . 304) . K LE . MO = 10
IF(K .GE 305 AND . 334) . . K . LE . MO = 1 1

IF(K .GE 335 AND . 365) . . K . LE . MO = 12


RAIN=XRAIN( J.K)
IF(RAIN .GT. 0.00) NW ( MO ) =NW( MO )+
ND(M0)=ND(M0)+1
IF(RAIN) 5,5,3
3 IF(RIM1 )2,2,4
2 NWD(M0)=NWD(M0)+1
GO TO 6
4 NWW(M0)=NWW(M0)+1
6 CONTINUE
SUML(MO)=SUML(MO)+ALOG(RAIN)
SUM(MO)=SUM(MO)+RAIN
SUM2(M0)=SUM2(M0) + RAIN * RAIN
SUM3(M0)=SUM3(M0)+RAIN*RAIN+RAIN
SL(MO) = SL(MO)+ALOG(RAIN)
GO TO 9
5 IF(RIM1) 7,7,8
7 NDD(M0)=NDD(M0)+1
GO TO 9
8 NDW(M0)=NDW(M0)+1
9 RIM1 = RAIN
30 CONTINUE
20 CONTINUE
DO 120 I = 1,12

82
) ) ) )

TABLE D1. CONTINUED.

XXND=ND( I
YYNW=NW( I
PPPW(I) = YYNW/XXND
III = 1

IF(NW(I) .LT. 3) III=2


IC(I ) = III
IF(NW( I ) 3) GO TO 120
LT. .

XNWW=NWW( I
XNWD=NWD( I
XXNW = NWW( I )+NDW( I )

XND=NDD( I )+NWD( I
XNW = NW( I )
PWW( I )=XNWW/XXNW
PWD( I )=XNWD/XND
RBAR( I )=SUM( I )/XNW
RLBAR( I )=SUML( I )/XNW
Y = ALOG(RBAR( I ) )-RLBAR{ I )
ANUM=8 .8989 19+9. 05995+ Y+0. 9775373* Y*Y
ADOM = Y*( 17.79728+1 1 968477 + Y + Y + Y ) .

ALPHA2=ANUM/AD0M
IF(ALPHA2 .GE. 1.0) ALPHA2=0.998
BETA2=RBAR( I )/ALPHA2
ALPHA( I )=ALPHA2
BETA( I )=BETA2
120 CONTINUE
WRITE(6,201
201 F0RMAT{///,8X, '--MARKOV CHAIN-- -GAMMA DIST-'
+1X,' MONTH P(W/W) P(W/D) ALPHA BETA',/)
DO 130 I = 1,12
WRITE(6.202)DATE( I ) ,PWW( I ) ,PWD( I ) ALPHA ( I ) BETA ( I ) A(IC(I ) )
, . ,

202 FORMAT ( 1X,A4,F8.3,F10.3.11X.F11.3,F7.3,5X,A36)


130 CONTINUE
D0400d= 1,12
YDATA( ,d)=PWW(U)
1

YDATA(2,U)=PWD(d)
YDATA(3, J)=ALPHA(d)
YDATA(4,d)=BETA(d)
400 CONTINUE
RETURN
END

U.S. GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE: 1984 421 227


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