ACTIVITY 4

The chance of these weather phenomenon forming over the Pacific

Ocean this year has climbed to

70 percent, Australia's Bureau of Meteorology (BoM) said,

reaching its bar for declaring an "El Niño alert."

El Niño, a climate pattern typically

associated with increased heat worldwide, as well as drought in some

parts of the world and heavy rains elsewhere, last occurred in

2018 and 2019.

Atmospheric changes would need to strengthen and sustain

themselves over a longer period before the BoM

declares an El Niño event, senior climatologist Catherine Ganter said.

El Niño lead to a higher chance of drier wether in eastern

Australia, warmer weather in the southern two-thirds of the country
and an "increased bushfire danger in south eastern Australia," the
bureau said in a stattement.

"We know from the historical record that bush fire events is more
likely during periods of El Niño, whereas floods and cyclones are less
likely but can still happen,"
said Tom Mortlock, a senior analyst at insurance giant Aon.

Australia on Tuesday warned of a likely eL Niño weather

pattern these year, delivering warmer, drier days to a country
vulnerable to fierce bushfires.

"The concern now is that — with the long absence of El Niño and
back-to-back La Niñas —

the landscape is preconditioned for bushfire with significant fuel

growth occurring," he said in a statement.

The "Black Summer" bushfires raged across Australia's eastern

seaboard from late 2019 to early 2020, razing swaths of forest, killing
millions of animals and blanketing cities in noxious smoke.

El Niño leads to a higher chance of drier weather in eastern Australia,

warmer weather in the southern two-thirds of the country and an
"increased bushfire danger in southeastern Australia," the bureau said
in a statement.