CURRENT SURVEY

RESEARCH AND METHODOLOGY

SEASONAL AND OTHER ENVIRONMENTAL ASPECTS OF ABSCONDINGS
BY APPROVED SCHOOL BOYS *

' R. V. G. CLARKE •

Introduction

THE previous literature on absconding has concentrated on its deeper psycho-

logical aspects.1 It is the purpose of the present research to show that
absconding, like many other delinquent acts' is also subject to certain
environmental influences. The data for this research were obtained from the
absconding records of Kingswood Classifying School for the five years 1960-64.
Kingswood Classifying School takes for assessment most of the boys com-
mitted to approved school in the South West comer of the country, an area
extending northwards to Birmingham and eastwards to Hampshire and
Oxfordshire. The school accepts a boy as soon as possible after committal.
The boy remains for a little under three weeks, at the end of which time he is
allocated to the most suitable training school in his home area.
The main advantage of Kingswood Classifying School for research into
certain environmental aspects of absconding is that throughout the year the
regime is constant. There are no holiday periods, and the influence of public
holidays is minimal. Because of the pressure for places, the number of boys
in the school is relatively constant; for the five years studied the daily mean
number of boys in the school was highest in November (46-0) and lowest in
January (42-5). The boys are divided into two houses approximately equal
for numbers, the junior taking boys up to their fifteenth birthday and the
senior taking boys from their fifteenth to seventeenth birthdays. The proportion
of senior to junior boys is constant.4

• M.A.(Lond.), Research Worker, Kingswood Classifying and Training Schools, Bristol.

1
Thanks are due to the Managers of Kingswood Schools, to Mr. J. L. Burns, the Principal,
and to Mr. T. Colh'nson, the Warden of the Classifying School, for their suggestions
concerning this research. The staff of Fikon Meteorological Office kindly made avail-
able the relevant weather statistics. Finally the author wishes to thank Mr. P.
Macnaughton-Smith of the Home Office Research Unit, and Dr. A. E Maxwell of the
Institute of Psychiatry, for their help.
2
See Chemuchin, P. (1957). " A study of boy absconders from approved schools," unpub.
Ph.D. Thesis, University of London Library.
3
Burt. C. (1931); The Young Delinquent, University of London Press, pp. 118-206.
4
The proportion of senior and junior boys is constant, by month and by day of the week.
This constancy is important because, as indicated in the body of the article, seniors
are more prone to absconding than juniors.
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During 1960-64 there was a total of 4,096 admissions to the school, and
there was a total of 610 abscondings committed by 476 boys. An absconding
is defined as an occasion of being absent from the school without permission,
irrespective of duration of absence. Each time each boys absconds is counted
as one absconding. Thus if four boys absconded together this is counted as
four abscondings.

Seasonal Variation
Burt* found, with juveniles, that in general offences against the person were
at a maximum in the summer months, and offences against property were at
a maximum in the winter months. He interpreted this seasonal variation mainly
in terms of opportunity: in the summer the light warm evenings promote
social intercourse and therefore opportunities for violence against the person,
whereas the long dark evenings of winter facilitate the work of the vandal
and the thief.
It was expected that abscondings from Kingswood would follow the seasonal
variation for property offences; the longer the hours of darkness, the greater
the opportunity for running away without being seen from the school. In
Figure 1 the actual number of abscondings that took place each month'
is compared with the number predictable (to the nearest whole number) if
seasonal variation .were due only to hours of darkness.7

FIGURE I

Showing no. of actual abscondings and no. predicted trom hours

oi darkness tor each month taking five years 1960-64

70-

i 50-
60-

\/ M //
30- X ffigninrib

j F M A H J J - i S O J T D J I
JBBMC«B>-44 37 58 50 48 27 40 48 58 65 76 59 610
68 61 53 44 36 32 34 40 49 57 66 70 610

0
Op. cit.. pp. 161-176.
• Correction was not made for differing lengths of months.
' Hours of darkness were defined as the length of time between sunset and sunrise on
the 15th day of each month. Figures were obtained from Whitaker's Ahnaaac, 1965.
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 RESEARCH AND METHODOLOGY

From Figure i it may be seen that there is a non-random seasonal variation

in absconding (x* = 3812, significant at 0-1 per cent, level, 11 dl.). Secondly
it may be seen that the actual and the predicted monthly absconding rates
are dose. For the ten. months, March-December, the difference between the
actual and the predicted absconding rates is not significant (x* = 1475, 9 di.).
However, when the figures for January and February are included the
difference between the actual and predicted^ rates is significant at the o-i per
cent, level (x* = 3266, 11 dl.). The failure of prediction for January and
February might be due to the depressing influence on absconding of a further
seasonal variable, possibly low temperature.
Thus the most economical explanation of the seasonal variation in
absconding might be that the lengthening hours of darkness provide more
opportunity for absconding, which increases from its nadir in June throughout
the autumn and early winter. In the coldest months of December, January
and February, very cold weather depresses the absconding rate below that
predictable purely from hours of darkness. From early spring to mid-
summer absconding decreases in company with hours of darkness.
Before this explanation can be adopted with confidence, there are two
alternatives that must be examined.
A. Temperature and hours of bright sunshine follow a seasonal curve
similar to that of hours of darkness. Using figures obtained from Hhon
Meteorological Office * it was found that temperature and sunshine had product-
moment correlations with daylight hows, respectively, of 0-89 and 0-96
(Sig. at £ per cent, level). Rainfall did not correlate significantly with daylight
hours (r = —0-31). Could not variation in temperature or sunshine account
more adequately for the seasonal variation in absconding?
There are two main reasons for preferring darkness as an explanation.
The first is that no simple correlation could be demonstrated between absconding
and temperature or sunshine. The method was to construct a table, the first
row of which was " The Tinest Synthetic Year," and the fifth and last row
" The Worst Synthetic Year." This was done by identifying the finest down
to the worst January, February . . . December, out of the five, in the years
1960-64. The actual number of abscondings occurring in the finest January
down to the worst December were entered in the table. In Table I the results
are shown when " finest" was defined on7y in terms of hours of bright sunshine.
It can be seen from Table I that there is no linear relationship between
hours of bright sunshine and number of abscondings. However, it will be
noted that, for each month of the year, the greatest number of abscondings takes
place in either the finest or the least fine out of the five instances. This finding
is significant at the o-i per cent, level (x* = 3100, 4 d.f.). Therefore absconding
is not linearly related to sunshine, but when there is a particularly sunny or
• The figures for rainfall were total inches for the month, for sunshine were mean
daily hours of bright sunshine for each month, and for temperature were the means
of the maximum and minimum temperatures recorded in each month. These figures,
particularly for temperature, are not entirely suitable for the purpose. Because of
the evidence for differential loss of body heat with different wind speeds (c/. letter
to The Timts, September 15, 1965, headed " Misery Index "), it would have been desirable
to include windspeed in the investigation. However, the figures recorded at Ffhon
were not suitable for the purpose.
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TABLE I

Showing number oi absconding! occurring in each synthetic year constructed

from the months in 1960-64 according to hours of bright sunshine

J. F. M. A. M. J. J. A- S. O. N. D. Total
Finest Synthetic Year 20 2 24 17 14 4 13 10 17 10 26 17 174
2nd „ „ 1 9 10 10 6 2 10 9 10 15 7 11 100
3rd „ „ 10 3 5 11 9 6 4 10 9 10 17 7 101
4th „' „ 6 11 11 9 3 3 3 7 8 14 20 is no
Worst „ „ 7 12 8 3 16 12 10 12 14 16 6 9 125
TOTAL 44 37 58 5° 48 27 40 48 58 65 76 59 610

particularly dull month for the time of the year, there are more abscondings.
There are many ad hoc hypotheses that might be evoked to explain this relation-
ship. For exampte, it might be postulated that very sunny weather makes
freedom particularly tempting, and very dull weather has a depressing effect
on the boys, who then blame the school for their discontent.
When a table similar to Table I was constructed for temperature and
absconding, the distribution was random (x* = 707, N.S., 4 d.f.). Therefore
it appears that there is no simple relationship between temperature and
absconding.
The second reason for preferring darkness to temperature or sunshine as
an explanation for the seasonal variation in absconding is that, as can be seen
from Table II, the increased absconding during the months October to March
takes place between the times 6.00 and 9.00 p.m. The period 6.00 to 9.00 p.m.*
is generally dark, in these winter months whereas it is light in the summer
months, particularly as in Britain summer times are one hour ahead of G.M.T.

TABLE II

Showing the number of abscondings taking place between 6.00 to 9.00 pjn.
during the summer and winter months, 1960-64

Time ol abscondings.' April to September. October to March

6.00-9.00 p.m. 64 r^o
All other times 207 189
TOTAL ' \ 271 339
\2 (with Yates's correction) = 2725 (Sig. at 0-1 per cent., 1 d.f.).

B. The second alternative explanation for the seasonal variation in

absconding is that it may not be the result of variable opportunity but rather
of variable incentive. Thus it might be argued that boys in the winter are
• It is interesting jhat Burt (op. rit., p. 1S9) found that 35 per cent, of the juvenile
offences he studied took place in the period 6.00-0.00 pjn.; 35-1 per cent, of all
absconding, studied in the present research, took place in the period &00-9.00 pjn.
It is possible that'Burt would have found, as was found here with abscondings. that'
the number of;: offences taking place in the various periods of the day shows a
seasonal variation
' 198
 RESEARCH AND METHODOLOGY

more likely to want to abscond, because they have had less opportunity to
use up their energy in outdoor games and activities, and they have had to
spend frustrated hours indoors. This explanation probably has some validity,
but it does not explain why the extra abscondings in the winter months take
place in the period 6.00-9.00 p.m. If increased incentive rather than oppor-
tunity were the explanation for increased winter absconding, one would
expect increased absconding at all times of the day.

Conclusions
(1) There is a seasonal variation in absconding from Kingswood Classifying
School, with increased absconding in the winter.
(2) The absconding variation is best explained by increased opportunity to
abscond in the winter months, offered by increased hours of darkness.
(3) Absconding is not related to rainfall. It is suggested that the main
influence of temperature is through very cold weather which depresses
absconding in the three months of December, January and February. Sunshine
is related to absconding in a complex fashion; when there is either a par-
ticularly sunny or a particularly dull month for the time of the year,
absconding increases.

Daily Variation
Burt '• found that the juvenile delinquency varied with the day of the week,
and that most offences occurred on a Sunday. It was expected that there
would be considerably more absconding from Kingswood at the weekends
than during the week. There are many reasons for this expectation, e.g., boys
on the run are not as noticeable at weekends, and supervision of boys outside
the classroom is not as close. If the absconding rate were the same during
the weekend as in the week, 28-6 per cent. (2/7) of all absconding would take
place at the weekend. In the three years 1960-62 the percentage of absconding
taking place at the weekends was below this (respectively, 25-6 per cent.
190 per cent., 232 per cent.). In 1963 the percentage of weekend absconding
more than doubled (53-3 per cent.) and remained high in 1964 (339 per cent.).
The reason for the increase in weekend absconding in 1963 and 1964 has
not been found, but it was not due to there being proportionately more boys
in the school at the weekends in these two years. For 1960-62 the mean
number of boys in the school on a weekday was 44-8 and at the weekend
was 444. For 1963-64 the corresponding figures were 434 and 430. Nor
was the increase due to a higher proportion of boys at the weekends in 1963
and 1964 who had been admitted immediately before the weekend—34 per
cent, of boys who abscond from the Classifying School abscond within three
days after admission. Of the boys who absconded during 1960-62, 48 per cent,
were admitted on a Thursday or a Friday, whereas the corresponding figure
for 1963-64 was 53 per cent. The difference in the percentages is too small
to be of importance.

10
Op. cit., p. 159.
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Conclusions
Contrary to expectation absconding was not more common at the weekends
than during the weekdays in 1960-62. In 1963-64 absconding was much
higher at the weekends than during the weekdays. The reason for this increase
has not been found, but there are many variables of the school regime such
as type or amount of supervision which have not been investigated. It would
be surprising to the writer if the increase in weekend absconding had a deep
psychological, rather than a predominantly environmental cause.

Home Area
The topography of crime has been the subject of considerable study, and it is
reasonable to ask whether boys from certain areas are more likely to abscond
than boys from other areas.
The major thirty-nine authorities " allocating boys to the Classifying School,
were divided into those with " low" rates of absconding and those with
" high" rates." This was done by calculating each authority's share of the
total allocations and of the total absconders. If the proportion of allocations
was greater than the proportion of absconders, the authority was described
as having a " low " absconding rate. If the proportion of allocations was less
than the proportion of absconders, it was described as having a " high " rate."
It should be noted here that the percentage of " low " absconding authorities
that.have, a high-.proportion of senior allocations is approximately the same
as that of " high " absconding authorities." This is important as seniors are
much more likely to abscond than juniors- Of the 476 absconders during
1960-64 only 156 were juniors. (As stated previously the number of seniors
admitted was approximately the same as the number of juniors during
1960-64.) Therefore the differences in absconding rates between authorities
cannot be explained in terms of differences in proportion of junior and senior
allocations.
First, the effect on absconding of distance of the home area from Kingswood
was examined. It was thought that there would be more homesickness among
the boys from the more distant authorities, for these boys would be less likely
to be visited at the school by their parents, girl friends, etc. As homesickness
is frequently given by the boys as a reason for absconding, it was expected
11
These 39 .authorities accounted for 3,968 out of 4,096 allocations to the Classifying
11
School in the five-year period.
The authorities with " low" rates of absconding were: Berkshire, Breconshire, Car-
diganshire. Carmarthenshire, Devonshire, Dorset, Glamorgan, Hampshire, Herefordshire,
Monmouthshire, Oxfordshire, Wiltshire. Bath. Bristol. Cardiff, Dudley, Exeter, Glou-
cester, Merthyr, Newport, Oxford, Plymouth, Southampton, Worcester. The authorities
with " high" rates of absconding were: Cornwall, Gloucestershire, Isle of Wight,
Pembrokeshire, Radnorshire, Somerset, Warwickshire, Worcestershire, Birmingham,
Bournemouth, Coventry, Portsmouth, Reading, Swansea, Jersey/Guernsey.
13
For many authorities the difference between the proportion of absconders and alloca-
14
tions would not be statistically significant.
Because figures were available for junior and senior allocations over broader geographical
areas, eg.. Devon (including Devonshire C. C, Exeter and Plymouth authorities) figures .
were not recalculated for the 39 authorities separately. Using the 17 broader groupings
(which included all the 39 authorities), of the nine with " high " rates of absconding
four had a high proportion of seniors,-whereas of the eight with "low" rates five
had a high proportion of seniors.
2OO
 RESEARCH AND METHODOLOGY

that among the more distant authorities there would be more with " high "
rates of absconding.
The distance from Kingswood, as the crow flies, was established for each
authority." Dividing at the medium distance (57-6 miles)" produced the
distribution shown in Table HI of authorities with " high " and with " tow "
rates of absconding.
TABLE III

Showing number of authorities with " high " and " low " rates of
absconding within and beyond SJ-6 miles of Kingswood, 1960-64

Within SJ-6 miles Beyond 576 miles

No. of authorities with " low " absconding ic 9
., „ „ „ "high" „ 4 11
Xf (with Yates's correction) on the figures in Table HI has a value of 342. .
Using a two-tailed test, this value is not significant with 1 d.f. at the 5 per
cent, level, but it is significant with a one-tailed test. It is arguable that a
one-tailed test is appropriate, as the direction of the difference was predicted,
(i.e., there being more authorities with " high " rates of absconding among the
more distant authorities). However, it is safer to conclude that there may be a
significant effect of distance on absconding, with the farther authorities having
in their number more with " high " absconding rates, but that this effect has
not been conclusively established.
This more cautious conclusion is supported by consideration of the number
of boys involved. In Table IV the number of boys who absconded and those
who did not are given separately for the authorities within 57-6 miles of
Kingswood and those beyond. It will be noted that xf calculated on the
figures in TaWe IV is not significant, ^ven with a one-tailed test.

TABLE IV

Showing number ot absconders from authorities within (Bid beyond

tj-6 miles of Kingswood, 1960-64
Within 576 miles Beyond $j-6 miles
No. of absconders 192 271
No. of non-absconders 1,560 L94S
X1 (with Yates's correction) = 141 (NS., 1 d.f.).
The effect of rural or urban residence on absconding was also examined.
It is well known that the incidence of crime is higher in urban than in rural
areas." Does this difference between urban and rural residence extend to
11
The distance of a county was defined as the mean of the nearest and most distant
points from Kingswood of that county.
'• Dividing at the median distance enabled the differences between groups in Tables III
and IV to be tested by the Median Test (Siegal, S., 1956, Nonparametric statistics tor
tht Behavidwal Sciences, McGraw-Hill.
" Walker, N. (1965), Crime and Punishment in Britain, Univerrity of Edinburgh Press, p. 92.
2OI
 CURRENT SURVEY

our boy absconders? There are many reasons for expecting boys from urban
areas to be more likely to abscond. For example, the greater savoir taire of the
city boy might give him more confidence to abscond, or it might be easier
for a city boy to find a confederate living in the same area as himself.
In Table V the number of boys sent by the County Boroughs and cities
(urban) and by the County Councils (rural) who abscond are compared. 1 '

TABLE V

Showing the number ol absconders irom urban and rural areas 1960-64
From Counties From Count}' Boroughs & Cities
No. of absconders 192 265
No. of non-absconders 1,604 1,881
y* (with Yates's correction) = 246 (NS., 1 d.f.).
From the figures in Table V it can be seen that there is no association
between absconding and urban or rural residence.
Conclusions
There may be a very slight effect of distance on absconding, in that among
the more distant authorities there are more with " high " rates of absconding
than among the nearer authorities. Urban or rural residence has no effect
on absconding from Kingswood Classifying School.

Summary
The previous literature on absconding has concentrated on its deeper psycho-
logical motivation. Using the absconding records of Kingswood Classifying
School for 1960-64, the present research has demonstrated that absconding is
also subject to environmental influences, which include daylight hours and
sunshine. Other relationships between absconding and temperature, absconding
and distance of the home, and also absconding and variables of the school
regime were suggested by the figures.

PSYCHIATRIC ASSESSMENT OF SCHOOL TRUANTERS

STANLEY GOLD *

Introduction

THE number of children who persistently stay away from school appears to
be increasing. Why this should be and the kinds of child involved have been
18
Figures for Jersey/Guernsey were not included in these calculations.
• M.B.B.S., D.P.M., M.A.N.Z.C.P.. Assistant Psychiatrist, Prince Henry's Hospital, Mel-
bourne; Assistant Psychiatrist, Royal Children's Hospital, Melbourne; formerly
Reseirch Fellow in Child Psychiatry-, Guy's Hospital, London. 1 would like to thank
the Children's Officer and the district school '•are organisers of the nine divisions of
the London County Council for their co-operauon in the collection of data included
in this investigation. Thanks are also due to Dr. G. F. Vaughan for making available
his records of psychiatric assessment and for his help and cooperation in preparing
this artide. This work was completed whilst the author was supported by a grant
from the Bloomfield Charitable Trust.
2O2