Class Notes of Applied Statistics 2MAOE27 by Dr. T. K.

Datta

ROLES OF STATISTICS
The basic role of statistics is to collect, present, analyse data to draw valuable information to
take decisions, solve problems and design product and processes.
In the field of engineering, the design of experiment is one of the most important statistical
applications. In design of experiment, the engineers set up an experimental design and
manipulate the controllable variables to see the outputs and find the best possible result for the
process.
Before launching a drug in the market, the manufacturers go through a series of statistical
analyses to test whether this drug is suitable for human beings and react on the decease as
expected with less or no side effects.
Some important topics of statistics which engineers must know are:
• sampling and sampling distributions
• estimations
• hypothesis testing
• analysis of variance (ANOVA)
• correlation
• regression
• time series and forecasting
We must have good idea about probability theory which is applicable in statistical analyses.
Following topics will be covered in this course (Applied Statistics) divided in six units. Some
topics are identified for self-study.
1. Data collection
2. Mechanistic vs. empirical models
3. Probability and its properties
4. Probability distributions – discreate and continuous
5. Descriptive statistics – summarization of data, graphical representation of data
6. Estimation – point and interval estimation
7. Testing of Hypothesis
8. Correlation and Regression
Self-study topics:
• Role of statistics in engineering
• The Engineering Method and Statistical Thinking
• Collecting Engineering
• Regression curve in exponential and power form.

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 Class Notes of Applied Statistics 2MAOE27 by Dr. T. K. Datta

Collecting Engineering data:

In the engineering environment, the data are almost always a sample that has been selected
from the population. Three basic methods of collecting data are:
1. A retrospective study using historical data.
2. An observational study.
3. A designed experiment
A retrospective study uses either all or a sample of the historical process data from some
period of time. In most such studies, the engineers are interested in using data to construct an
empirical model relating to the variables of interest. Retrospective research often requires the
analysis of data that were originally collected for reasons other than research. This includes
physician and nursing notes, ambulatory and emergency room reports, consultations,
admission and discharge documentation, laboratory and diagnostic testing reports, and other
clinical or administrative data (J Can Acad Child Adolesc Psychiatry. 2006 Aug; 15(3): 126–
134).
In an observational study, the engineer observes the process or population, disturbing it as
little as possible, and records the quantities of interest. Because these studies are usually
conducted for a relatively short time period, sometimes variables that are not routinely
measured can be included. Observation is a technique that involves systematically selecting,
watching, listening, reading, touching, and recording behavior and characteristics of living
beings, objects, or phenomena.

In a designed experiment, the engineer makes collect the best subset of data quickly and
efficiently. deliberate or purposeful changes in the controllable variables of the system or
process, observes the resulting system output data, and then makes an inference or decision
about which variables are responsible for the observed changes in output performance.
Designing experiments for data collection is important when the data required for analysis isn’t
available. The key goal is to design a way to collect the best subset of data quickly and
efficiently. The process of designing an experiment for collecting data is called design of
experiments.

Mechanistic Models and Empirical Models:

A mechanistic model predicts the future based on the fundamental laws and theories of natural
sciences, including physical, biochemical and material science principles. It uses no or less
experimental data. Example: Suppose a manufacturer wants to design a new electric car. To
design this car, either no or less statistical data will be used. It will use theories and laws of
motor vehicle design, theories of electricity etc. Simulation might be an important tool for
mechanistic modelling.
An empirical model, sometimes called a statistical model, relies on observations rather than
theories. We collect data, analyze data and find a pattern in the data to daw some inferences on
the properties. Hypothesis testing, regression analysis, ANOVA are some statistical methods
applied in empirical/statistical models.

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 Class Notes of Applied Statistics 2MAOE27 by Dr. T. K. Datta

INTRODUCTION TO PROBABIITY-1
To be covered:
1. Random experiments
2. Events (simple and compound events)
3. Sample space
4. Mutually exclusive events
5. Equally likely events
6. Independent events
7. Certain event(S) and null event(  )
8. Concept of “not E”.
Introduction: Probability is the measure of chance of occurrence of an event in a random
experiment or random process.
Random experiment: An experiment or a process whose results or outcomes are not
essentially same even though we conduct it under same identical conditions is called a random
experiment. In random experiment, the results depend upon the chance factor.
Examples: Tossing a coin, rolling a die, drawing a card from a pack of playing cards etc.
Sample space of a random experiment: The set of all possible outcomes of a random
experiment constitute the sample space of that random experiment. It is denoted by S.
Examples:
a) In tossing a coin once, S = {H.T}.
b) In tossing two coins once, S = {HH, HT, TH, TT}
c) In rolling a die once, S = {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6}.
d) Drawing two balls from a box containing 5 red balls, 4 white balls and 3 black balls
(without replacement),
S = {RR, RW, RB, WR, WW, WB, BR, BW, BB}.
Events: Any outcome of the random experiment is called an event. An event is actually a
subset of the sample space. Events are denoted by uppercase letters A, B,…., X, Y,….,etc. We
know that every set is its own subset. So, the sample space S itself is an event. This event is
called a certain event (the event which certainly occurs). Similarly, null set ∅ is the subset of
every set. So, ∅ is a subset of S. Hence, ∅ is an event, known as null event or impossible event
(the event which never occurs).
Mutually exclusive events: Two events are mutually exclusive, if they cannot occur
simultaneously. In tossing a coin, H and T are mutually exclusive. In rolling a die, ‘face 1’ and
‘face 3’ are mutually exclusive. However, ‘face 1’ and ‘odd face’ are not mutually exclusive.
If the events A and B are mutually exclusive, then 𝑨 ∩ 𝑩 = ∅.
Simple and compound events: An event is called a simple event if it cannot be further broken
into some sub events. A compound event is one which can be broken into some subevents.
Ex: In rolling a die, the event face 2 is simple, but the event an even face is compound.
Generally, we form the sample space with simple events. These are also called sample points.

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 Class Notes of Applied Statistics 2MAOE27 by Dr. T. K. Datta

Independent events: Two events are independent if the occurrence or non-occurrence of one
of them does not depend on the occurrence or non-occurrence of the other.
Example: Suppose there are two boxes containing some red and white balls. One ball is drawn
from each box. Define A = red ball drawn from box 1 and B = a white ball is drawn from box
2. Then A and B are independent.
If “A” is any event, then “not A” is denoted by 𝐴′ and is called complement of A. 𝐴′= S - A.
Equally likely and exhaustive events: The events A1, A2, ….An are called equally likely if
each of them has same chance of occurrence. They are called exhaustive events if at least one
of them must occur.
Property: If an experiment has n stages and stage i has ki possible outcomes (i = 1, 2,….,n),
then the total number of different possible outcomes of the experiment is k1.k2….kn.
Example: Suppose an experiment has 3 stages. The stage-1 has 4 possible outcomes, stage-2
has 6 possible outcomes and stage-3 has 3 possible outcomes. How many different outcomes
does the entire experiment have? (Ans: 4*6*3 = 72 outcomes).
Tree diagram: A tree diagram of a random experiment is a visual representation of the possible
outcome. The diagram uses branches of tree to represent each possible outcome.
Ex 1: Tossing a coin once.
H

T
S = {H, T}.
Ex 2: Tossing a coin twice or tossing two coins once.

H
H
T
H
T
T
S = {HH, HT, TH, TT}.
Ex 3: An operator is trying to connect to the server. In each try, either she will connect (C) or
fail to connect (F). She will stop trying once get connected. She can try a maximum of 4
times. Draw the tree diagram and write the sample space.

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 Class Notes of Applied Statistics 2MAOE27 by Dr. T. K. Datta

C
F C
F C
F
F
S = {C, FC, FFC, FFFC, FFFF}.
Tree diagram to find the sample space:
1. A coin is tossed three times. Use tree diagram and find the sample space of the possible
outcomes. Find the probability that at least two times head will occur. Find the
probability that all results are tails.
2. A gunman is firing on a target. He will keep on firing until hit the target. Write down
the sample space.
3. Your team will play two matches with CityXI team.
a) Write down the sample space of outcomes of your team.
b) What is the probability that your team will “draw” exactly once?
c) What is the probability that CityXI will win both the matches?
d) What is the probability that CityXI will not win any match?
Assume that the probabilities that your team will win, draw and lose are equal.
Ans: a) S= {WW, WD, WL, DW, DD, DL, LW, LD, LL}. Total 32 = 9 sample points.
Please note that the sample space of CityXI is same.
b) Prob = 4/9. c) Prob =1/9. d) Prob = 1/9.

Addition (union) and multiplication (intersection) of two events:

The union of two events A and B is an event which contains all the sample points of A and B,
and is denoted by AUB. It means either A occurs or B occurs or both occur.
The intersection of two events A and B is the event which contains the common sample
points of A and B. It is denoted by A∩B. It means simultaneous occurrence of A and B (both
A and B occur).

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 Class Notes of Applied Statistics 2MAOE27 by Dr. T. K. Datta

Examples:
1. In rolling a die, suppose E denotes the event “even face”, A denotes the event “face 2”
and B denotes the event “face 3”. Then,
E = {2, 4, 6}, A = {2}, B = {3}.
EUB = {2, 3, 4, 6}, E∩B = ∅.
EUA = {2, 4, 6} E∩A = {2}.

Definitions of Probability:

Definitions of probability:
1. Personal approach: In this approach, the experimenter assign the probability of an
event best on his personal approach.
2. Frequency approach: In this approach, the repeat the experiment N times. Suppose
an event A occurs f times in these N trials. Then the approximate probability of
𝑓
occurrence of A is P(A) =𝑁. N should be sufficiently large.
Example: A biased die is rolled 600 times. If the face 1 appears 120 times and face 6
appears 95 times. Find the probabilities of the following events:
a) Occurrence of face 1; b) occurrence of face 6.
[Ans: a) P(face 1) = 120/600 =1/5 = 0.2; b) P(face 6) = 95/600 = 19/120 = 0.1583]
3. Classical approach: Suppose there are N mutually exclusive, equally likely and
exhaustive outcomes of a random experiment of which m are favourable for an event
𝑚
A, then P(A) = 𝑁 .

Properties: i) 0 ≤ 𝑃(𝐴) ≤ 1; ii) P(S) = 1; iii) P(∅) = 0; iv) P(𝐴′ ) = 1 − 𝑃(𝐴);

v) If 𝐴1, 𝐴2 , … . , 𝐴𝑛 are mutually exclusive events, then

𝑃(𝐴1 ∪ 𝐴2 ∪ … .∪ 𝐴𝑛 ) = 𝑃(𝐴1 ) + 𝑃(𝐴2 ) + ⋯ + 𝑃(𝐴𝑛 ).

Union (sum) and intersection (product) of events:
Let A and B be two events. The sum or union of these events is denoted by 𝐴 ⋃ 𝐵. It means
“either A or B or both”. The product or intersection of these events is denoted by 𝐴 ⋂ 𝐵. It
means “both”.
Properties:
1. If A and B are mutually exclusive, then P(𝐴 ⋃ 𝐵) = P(A) + P(B).
2. If A and B are independent, then P(𝐴 ⋂ 𝐵) = P(A) P(B).
Conditional probability:
The conditional probability of the event A, given B means the probability of occurrence of A
under the condition that A has already occurred. It is denoted by
P(A/B). If A and B are mutually independent events, then P(A/B) =P(A).
Addition Rule:

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 Class Notes of Applied Statistics 2MAOE27 by Dr. T. K. Datta

If A and B are two events, then 𝑃(𝐴 ⋃ 𝐵) = 𝑃(𝐴) + 𝑃(𝐵) − 𝑃(𝐴 ⋂ 𝐵).
For three events A, B, C, 𝑃(𝐴 ⋃ 𝐵 ⋃ 𝐶) = 𝑃(𝐴) + 𝑃(𝐵) + 𝑃(𝐶) − 𝑃(𝐴 ⋂ 𝐵) − 𝑃(𝐴 ⋂ 𝐶) −
𝑃(𝐵 ⋂ 𝐶) + 𝑃(𝐴 ⋂ 𝐵 ⋂ 𝐶).
Multiplication Rule:
If A and B are two events, then 𝑃(𝐴 ⋂ 𝐵) = 𝑃(𝐴)𝑃(𝐵/𝐴) or 𝑃(𝐵)𝑃(𝐴/𝐵).
Basic counting techniques:
Permutation and combination:
A permutation is an arrangement in a definite order of several objects taken, some or all at a
time, with permutations, every tiny detail matters. It means the order in which elements are
arranged is significant.
Number of permutations of n distinct things taken r at a time is
𝑛!
𝑃𝑟𝑛 = (𝑛−𝑟)!.

Number of permutations of n objects of which n1 are of type 1, n2 are of type 2, ….., nk are of
type k (n = n1+n2+…+nk) is
𝑛!
.
𝑛1 !×𝑛2 !×…×𝑛𝑘 !

Example: A hospital needs to schedule 3 knee surgeries and 2 hip surgeries in a day. In how
many possible sequences the surgeries can be scheduled?
Ans: Total number of operations for the day is 5 of which 3 are of type 1(knee surgeries) and
2 are of type 2(hip surgeries).
5!
So, the total number of ways the operations can be scheduled = 3!2! =10.

10 sequences: S = {hhkkk, hkhkk, hkkhk, hkkkh, khhkk, khkhk, khkkh, kkhhk, kkhkh, kkkhh}.
This is the sample space of the experiment under study.
A combination is the selection of r distinct things out of n without regarding order.
Number of combinations of n things taken r at a time is
𝑛!
𝐶𝑟𝑛 = (𝑛−𝑟)!𝑟!.

Property:
If an experiment can occur in k steps and step i can occur in ni different ways (i =1, 2, …, k),
then the total number of ways in which the experiment can occur is 𝑛1 × 𝑛2 × … . .× 𝑛𝑘 .
Example: An experiment takes place in three stages. In each stage, there are two possible results
– X, Y. Find the sample space.
Ans: S = {XXX, XXY, XYX, XYY, YXX, YXY, YYX, YYY}.

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 Class Notes of Applied Statistics 2MAOE27 by Dr. T. K. Datta

Question 1: In a class there are 27 boys and 14 girls. The teacher wants to select 1 boy and 1
girl to represent a competition. In how many ways can the teacher make this selection?
[Ans. 𝐶127 × 𝐶114 = 27 × 14 = 378 ways]

Question 2: Given 7 flags of different colors, how many different signals can be generated if
7! 7!
a signal requires the use of two flags, one below the other? [Ans. 𝑃27 = (7−2)! = 5! = 42
ways]

Question 3: A person wants to buy 1 fountain pen, 2 ball pens and 2 pencils from a stationery
shop. If there are 10 fountain pen varieties, 12 ball pen varieties and 5 pencil varieties, in how
many ways can he select these articles? [Ans. 𝐶110 × 𝐶212 × 𝐶25 = 10 × 66 × 10 =
6600 ways]

Question 4: Twelve students compete in a race. In how many ways first three prizes be given?
[Ans. 12 × 11 × 10 = 1320 ways. Or 𝑃312 ]

Question 5: From among the 36 teachers in a college, one principal, one vice-principal and
one teacher-in charge are to be appointed. In how many ways this can be done? [Ans.
36 × 35 × 34 = 42840 ways]

Question 6: There are 6 multiple choice questions in an examination. How many sequences of
answers are possible, if the first three questions have 4 choices each and the next three have 2
each? [Ans. 𝐶14 × 𝐶14 × 𝐶14 × 𝐶12 × 𝐶12 × 𝐶12 = 4 × 4 × 4 × 2 × 2 × 2 = 512 ways]

Question 7: How many numbers are there between 500 and 1000 which have exactly one of
their digits as 8?

[Ans. 1) If the 1st digit is 8, then 2nd and 3rd digits can be selected 9 × 9 = 𝟖𝟏 ways (0 – 9
except 8)

2) If the 2nd digit is 8, then 1st digit can be filled by 4 digits (5, 6, 7, 9) and 3rd digit can be
selected 9 ways (0 – 9 except 8). So, total number of ways = 4 × 9 = 𝟑𝟔.

3) If the 3rd digit is 8, then 1st digit can be filled by 4 digits (5, 6, 7, 9) and 2nd digit can be
selected 9 ways (0 – 9 except 8). So, total number of ways = 4 × 9 = 𝟑𝟔.

Hence, the total number of ways = 81 + 36 + 36 = 153 ways.]

Question 8: How many five-digit number license plates can be made if

(i) first digit cannot be zero and the repetition of digits is not allowed.

(ii) the first digit cannot be zero, but the repetition of digits is allowed?

[Ans. i) 9 × 9 × 8 × 7 × 6 = 27,216. ii) ) 9 × 10 × 10 × 10 × 10 = 90,000.]

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 Class Notes of Applied Statistics 2MAOE27 by Dr. T. K. Datta

Some examples:
4. A card is drawn at random from a pack of 52 well-shuffled playing cards.
a) What is the probability that the card drawn is a red card?
b) What is the probability that the card drawn is an Ace?
c) What is the probability that the card drawn is a heart?
d) What is the probability that the card drawn is either a red Queen or a spade?
e) What is the probability that the card drawn is either a black card or a King?
Ans: a) (26/52 = 0.5) b) (4/52 =1/13) c) (13/52 = 0.25) d) (2/52+13/52=15/52) e)
(26/52+4/52-2/52 = 28/52 = 7/13)

5. A hospital needs to schedule 3 knee surgeries and 2 hip surgeries in a day. Assume that
the hospital will select a surgery at random.
a) What is the probability that the hospital will do hip surgery first on that day?
b) What is the probability that the hospital will complete all three knee surgeries and
then do the hip surgeries?
Ans: a) Prob = 4/10 = 0.4. b) Prob = 1/10 = 0.1.
Tree diagram to find the sample space:
6. A coin is tossed three times. Use tree diagram and find the sample space of the possible
outcomes. Find the probability that at least two times head will occur. Find the
probability that all results are tails.
7. A gunman is firing on a target. He will keep on firing until hit the target. Write down
the sample space.
8. Your team will play two matches with CityXI team.
e) Write down the sample space of outcomes of your team.
f) What is the probability that your team will “draw” exactly once?
g) What is the probability that CityXI will win both the matches?
h) What is the probability that CityXI will not win any match?
Assume that the probabilities that your team will win, draw and lose are equal.
Ans: a) S= {WW, WD, WL, DW, DD, DL, LW, LD, LL}. Total 32 = 9 sample points.
Please note that the sample space of CityXI is same.
c) Prob = 4/9. c) Prob =1/9. d) Prob = 1/9.

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