1.

prediction heuristics

Setting the scene

Instead of researching everything we rely on previous experiences, attributes and heuristics to

guide us in our process of decision making.
Main focus
Prediction heuristics falls into four catogies

Representativeness
- we categorize things and judge them upon that category. Copycat brands making
themselves look like the real thing -> norpak /lurpak
Availability
- we are likely to think of products in terms of previous experience
- wanke et all 1997 BMW survey -> researchers found that there was a more positive view
among those subjects asked to name one pro about BMW than those naming one con. But
they saw no significance between the groups asked to name ten cons/pros
Stimulation
- We like things that are easier to image -> example: coffeemug turn the wrong way.
Anchoring-adjustments
- We start at an initial viewpoint of a product and then adjust up or down.
- Study: peak et al 2011 studied the effect of anchoring on two groups say:

“our crackers has 60 calories - only half that of our competitors”

“our crackers has 60 calories”
Then they were to answer whether they thought the crackers had high or low nutritional values
The first group said low
The second said high

Anchoring can also take form in multiple unit pricing. 1 for 25, 4 for 80