H. Huang and D. Zhang / Quantitative Geotechnical Risk Management for Tunneling Projects in China 6 the key principle of the method and its application into the tunnel case are presented briefly below. 3.1. Fuzzy Fault Tree Analysis (FTA) —Hazard Identification It has been widely recognized that the damage of the tunnel is not likely to be caused only by a single hazard. There might be a chain effect between hazards. The fault tree (FT) is always built to systematically understand the growth path of a catastrophic event. A typical fault tree for the damage of the cutter of the earth pressure balance (EPB) shield machine in tunneling is shown in Figure 3 (Yan, et al., 2009). The top event can be triggered by a combination of the sub-event serially or parallelly. In this case, the cutter damage can be triggered by three major sub-events, i.c., poor ground condition, irrational construction and shield factor. In addition, the shield factor could be further triggered by three "sub-sub- events", Note that the cutter damage at the top of the tree also can be a sub-event for a more serious event, such as cutter failure or failure of the EPB machine. S==e — Figure 3. An example of fault tree analysis (FTA) for the ccutter damage of EPB shield machine When the events that cannot be further divided, i.e, basic events, are available, the probability of the occurrence of the top event can be calculated from Eq. 3 below, P.=1-J][l- Po) @) P(M) is the probability of the occurrence of a minimal cut sets of the events that could directly trigger the occurrence of the top event. The independency between minimal cut sets is assumed in the calculation, However, the probability for the basic event is usually difficult to be quantified, Hence, the fuzzy set theory is adopted to cope with it, A triangular possibility distribution of the probability of the occurrence of the basic event is used and plotted in Figure 4 (Bian and Huang, 2006). Then the fuzzy probability of the top event can be expressed as triangular fuzzy numbers and the parameters. It reflects the robustness of the calculated probability of the top event. Figure 4, Possibility distribution of basic event probability ¢ main basic events affecting the occurrence probability of the top event can be determined and some effective measures are verified by sensitivity analysis to reduce occurrence probability of the basic events and the top event. The sensitivity of basic event can be evaluated by the index V; as below: (4) where jig is the occurrence probability of the top event, y,, is the average occurrence probability of the basic event x, 3.2. Conditional Markov Process (CMP) for Soil Distribution Probability The uncertainty in the tunneling can be largely attributed to the uncertainty of the spatially varied soils along the tunnel longitudinal direction, The limited site investigation in terms of the borehole numbers is the major source that creates the soil uncertainties. It is customary to linearly characterize soil layering between boreholes. However, the tunnel failures are usually caused by the underestimation of the complex distribution of the layered soils. In view of this limitation, the conditional Markov process (CMP) can be adopted to fully utilize the existing borehole