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It's Not the End of Petroleum Engineering

Conference Paper · September 2021

DOI: 10.2118/206269-MS

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SPE-206269-MS

It's Not the End of Petroleum Engineering

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D. Nathan Meehan, CMG Petroleum Consulting, Ltd.

Copyright 2021, Society of Petroleum Engineers

This paper was prepared for presentation at the 2021 SPE Annual Technical Conference and Exhibition held in Dubai, UAE, 21 - 23 September 2021.

This paper was selected for presentation by an SPE program committee following review of information contained in an abstract submitted by the author(s). Contents
of the paper have not been reviewed by the Society of Petroleum Engineers and are subject to correction by the author(s). The material does not necessarily reflect
any position of the Society of Petroleum Engineers, its officers, or members. Electronic reproduction, distribution, or storage of any part of this paper without the written
consent of the Society of Petroleum Engineers is prohibited. Permission to reproduce in print is restricted to an abstract of not more than 300 words; illustrations may
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Abstract
Is this the end of petroleum engineering as we know it? This prescient question led to the most downloaded
paper from onepetro.org in 2019. The events of 2020 resulted in massive layoffs, decreased hiring and
many fewer students studying petroleum engineering. In the 2019 paper the authors claimed that the future
would hold fewer petroleum engineering jobs and very different types of jobs. This paper incorporates a
broader range of data and proposes some specific ways to improve prospects for the discipline of petroleum
engineering.
The opportunity for a near-term recovery is very high as the world overcomes COVID-19 issues, oil
demand recovers and the impact of chronic underinvestment in oil and gas production looms. The world's
largest producers have very different abilities to respond to a near-term uptick in demand. Energy transition
pressures continue to cap growth in demand; however, demand for petroleum engineers is expected to
grow under almost every scenario, but not to pre-2015 levels. Increased demand in CCUS and jobs that
improve sustainability of oil and gas will continue to outpace conventional jobs. Data analytics will play
an increasingly large role in engineering activities.
The "Is it the end?" paper started with a question, a question that I first heard asked in 1977 at the SPE
Annual Fall Technical Conference and Exhibition in Denver to 1972 SPE President M. Scott Kraemer. I have
heard it many times since then and asked it many times. "Would you recommend that your son or daughter
study petroleum engineering?" The answer to that question was pretty easy and unanimously positive in
1977. Keep this question in mind as we review what has happened since the prior paper came out.

A little history lesson for context

Figure 1 shows historical oil, gas and total rig activity in the US since 1/1987. We are going to start our
analysis more recently, but it is worthwhile to revisit the first mega-demand cycle for petroleum engineers.
I finished my undergraduate degree in Physics in March 1975 and was finishing my M. Sc. In petroleum
engineering when I went to work full-time in May 1976. The time between when I started college in 1972
and 1987 was just as wild a ride as we have had since then but less relevant to the future of our discipline.
But to keep things in perspective, WTI crude oil prices when I started college were 3.56 $/bbl, higher than
it had been in living memory. By the time I finished my B. Sc. in March 1975, we had had the OAPEC
Embargo which lasted from October 1973 to March 1974. Nominal crude oil prices tripled and were $11.16/
bbl when I graduated. American oilfields had been in decline and by 1969 could no longer keep pace with
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rising demand. Complex regulatory structures with lower prices for "old oil" vs "new oil" followed along
with "Windfall Profit Taxes." Higher prices globally spurred conservation, exploration and enhanced oil
recovery. Petroleum engineering demand began to increase significantly for the first time in a long time. The
Wall Street Journal published an article on the demand for petroleum engineers titled "Campus Kingpins."
I was featured in the first three paragraphs.

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Figure 1—WTI crude oil prices 1987-2003

The next massive shock came from the OPEC oil embargo. Well, the 1979 "embargo" wasn't so much an
embargo as a fairly brief cutback in production which resulted in dramatic price shocks, more than doubling
crude oil prices to unheard of levels of 40 $/bbl or more than $120 /bbl on an inflation adjusted basis. The
output cuts had a more dramatic and long-lasting impact than the earlier embargo. The cutbacks only lasted
three months but changed how the world thought about energy supply and demand. In early 1980, no one
questioned the wisdom of becoming a petroleum engineer and P.E. departments worldwide were about to be
flooded with students. What followed though would be a worldwide oil glut (is this story starting to sound
familiar?). Oil prices in excess of $35 /bbl in 1980 would decline to less than 10 $/bbl in 1986.
What caused the glut? Well, high prices didn't help. Oil consumption the United States, Europe, and
Japan declined 13% from 1979 to 1981 "in part, in reaction to the very large increases in oil prices by the
Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and other oil exporters." Not surprisingly, rig activity fell
precipitously, and prices settled in the 15 to 25 $/bbl range for more than a decade (Figure 2). When people
say that the oil industry is "cyclical" they mean variable rather than a more precise definition of cyclicality.
During the 1987-2003 time period something very interesting happened to oil and gas demand, namely gas
demand.
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Figure 2—US rig count and WTI prices from 1/1987 Sources: Baker Hughes rig count, eia.gov

Figure 3 is US net gas withdrawals from 1980 to present. US production hovered around 60-65 Bcf/
D until mid-2007. For a long time, oil and gas rig counts had been about the same level. Gas prices had
languished at around 2 $/Mcf for a long time and begun to spike to unheard of levels and by the mid-2000s;
prices were high enough to drive gas rig counts well above oil rig counts. Horizontal wells had become
somewhat routine in the early 1990s but stayed less than 10% of the US rig count until May 2004. By April
2009 there would be more horizontal wells being drilled than vertical wells and it does not look like vertical
wells are coming back any time soon.
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Figure 3—US Net gas withdrawals MMcf/D, gas prices $/MMBTU Source: EIA

When we talk about the "1980s" one could add in most of the 1990s as relatively slow times for the
petroleum industry based solely on prices and rig activity. Employment declined with massive layoffs in
the upstream sector. This was particularly true in the service sector, but operators followed. Petroleum
engineering enrollments experienced sharp declines and many graduates failed to get job offers in the
industry as engineers. For the first time since the early 1970s, petroleum engineering looked like it might
not be such a good career opportunity after all.
Nonetheless, technological advances abounded. This is particularly true in deep water where advanced
capabilities for developing very deep oilfields came into fruition and long horizontal wells could be drilled
in relatively narrow geological targets. The list of technological advances during this period is impressive
and would pave the way for the ability to respond quickly to increased demand and improved pricing.
Advances in hydraulic fracturing and abundant tight gas opportunities provided operators and consumers
with increased confidence in natural gas. The natural gas world was about to change permanently as the
Barnett Shale managed to combine horizontal wells and relatively closely spaced slick water fracs. Declining
natural gas prices, excessive drilling and more attractive opportunities in other gas plays lead to a sharp
drop in activity in the Barnett. Nonetheless in the early 2000s, gas drilling was dominant over oil drilling
for the first time and would not be overtaken by oil drilling until either gas prices declined, or oil prices
increased. Both of these things happened by the end of the decade.
An oil spike in 1998 saw oil prices skyrocket to 145 $/bbl in July 2008 only to collapse to 30 $/bbl
before year-end. That collapse was short lived and oil prices were above 50$/bbl by April 2009 and would
be over 80$/bbl by year end. Prices from January 2010 through October 2014 would average 92.75 $/bbl.
The halcyon days of the oilfield had returned and with it an era of low interest rates, abundant capital and
a seemingly endless supply of drilling opportunities in unconventionals. Oil was back! US oil rig activity
grew from a lowly 179 rigs in June 2009 to more than 1,400 in September 2012 eventually peaking at almost
1,600 rigs in late 2014.
With few new petroleum engineers entering the work force during the late 1980s and 1990s, demand
skyrocketed. Not only did existing petroleum engineering departments fill to the brim (and then some); new
petroleum engineering departments appeared in droves. As SPE 2016 President I recall giving a lecture
at the well-known and well-respected petroleum engineering department at Imperial College in London.
SPE-206269-MS 5

Local SPE leadership contacted me the next day saying that the "other petroleum engineering departments"
in London wanted to know if I could speak to them. I agreed and the number of students from six other
universities in the London area who attended were much greater in number than those at Imperial! I will
admit that I had never heard of any of the other schools. Petroleum engineering schools, both traditional
and newly formed would pump out a spectacular number of petroleum engineers in order to meet what was
perceived to be infinite demand.

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The "question" was not being asked. Everyone knew it was a great idea to become a petroleum engineer.
Many PE departments raised admissions criteria to try and choke the inflow of students. Universities without
the flexibility or will power to restrict admissions and class sizes were overwhelmed with record numbers
of students.
Anyone reading this story knows what comes next. It turns out that they call it the "Law of Supply and
Demand" rather than the "Suggestion of Supply and Demand." Figure 4 is the US crude oil and petroleum
products inventory curves since 2005. The volumes are on the ordinate with days of the year along the
abscissa. Seasonal variations in petroleum use and demand account for much of the variation in the earlier
years. By 2015, the impact of rapid growth in unconventional drilling activity led to huge increases in
domestic production; inventories were at all-time highs. All-time highs in inventories are closely associated
with declining prices and that is precisely what happened. Oil prices collapsed followed by rapid drops in
oil and gas drilling activity. By May 2016, the total US rig count had collapsed from a peak of 2,026 in
November 2011 to 404 in May 2016. At the time this was the lowest rig count in the history of the Baker
Hughes rig count which began in the 1940s.

Figure 4—US Total Crude Oil and Petroleum Products (Incl. SPR) Source EIA

Baker Hughes only accounts for rotary rigs and while cable tool drilling is not common today it was
more common in the first half of the 20th century with hundreds of cable tool rigs active. Cable tool drilling
began in earnest in the mid-1860s with more than 500 cable tool rigs active in 1865. If we combine cable
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tool drilling and rotary drilling, May 2016 saw the lowest number total drilling rigs since Abraham Lincoln
was President of the United States.
Crude oil inventories began to decline in 2017 albeit not to historical levels. Prices began to stabilize
and remained in the 50-70 $/bbl region for more than a year averaging almost 65 $/bbl between October
2017 and November 2018. Finally, things were "back to normal" and rig counts were back over 1,000 and
reasonably stable. Figure 5 shows this more recent activity and the 2020 collapse which followed.

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Figure 5—Prices and activity from 2014. Sources: Baker Hughes and EIA

International inventories responded similarly to US inventories but are more complex as they are not
reported as frequently and must reasonably include large volumes of ship-borne cargoes. Most of the story
illustrated here with US activity can also be seen in international drilling activity. Figure 6 shows the decline
in international drilling activity by region in the 2014-2016 time period along with Brent crude prices. It
is interesting to note that Middle East activity held steady during this time period. The rise in activity with
2018-2019 price recovery failed to show up internationally. However, all regions would be impacted by the
next, very unexpected collapse.
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Figure 6—International rig count, Brent crude prices Source: Baker Hughes, NASDAQ

Now our history lesson is almost over, and we have come to 2020, the first year of the COVID-19
global pandemic. Prices started the year inauspiciously as tensions between Saudi Arabia and Russia over
restricting crude production to maintain prices saw oil prices drop from 60 $/bbl to 40$/bbl even before
COVID-19 exploded. Figure 7 shows WTI prices, new (averaged weekly) US Covid-19 cases and total
US land rig activity. World COVID-19 new cases and Brent crude oil prices are shown in Figure 8. The
pre-Covid price drop is clearly visible. However, as global travel plummeted and world crude oil demand
dropped from just over 100 MMB/D to under 80 MMB/D, crude oil inventories skyrocketed (4) and prices
collapsed followed promptly by rig counts. By August 2020, a new record low rig count of only 244 rigs
was set in the US and international rig activity fell in all regions. A significant pricing recovery which began
I late 2020 prompted a modest increase in rig activity in the US but less so (so far) globally.
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Figure 7—US rig count, WTI and new US daily Covid-19 cases

Figure 8—Brent crude oil prices and global COVID-19 daily new cases

Enrollments are down in petroleum engineering schools globally. Many of the newly created departments
of the 2014-2016 boom are gone or are going. London may well be back to one petroleum engineering
department.
SPE-206269-MS 9

In recent news, the University of Calgary suspended admission of new students to the undergraduate
program in petroleum engineering. While existing students can finish their degrees, no new students will
be admitted. Prof. Arindom Sen, Head of the Department of Chemical and Petroleum Engineering in the
Schulich School of Engineering was quoted as saying "It's really been a great program for us; it typically
used to be a high-demand program." How many more universities will refer to petroleum engineering in
the past tense?

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Other factors
In the "End of Petroleum Engineering as we know it" paper several factors were identified that could
endanger petroleum engineering as a traditional discipline. Several of these factors had reduced demand
for other engineering disciplines including textile engineering, mining engineering, and to a lesser extend
aerospace, architectural and nuclear engineering. Challenges include:

• Close association with only one industry.

• Variable job demand and widespread layoffs.

• Poor public perception of the industry associated with the discipline.

• Changing technological requirements including the digital transformation

During times of high demand for petroleum engineers, oil and gas companies hired a substantial
number of chemical, mechanical and other engineers. Service companies hired from a very broad array of
engineering majors during times of high demand. Mechanical, electrical, civil and chemical engineering
graduates account for more than 70% of all engineering undergraduate majors. Graduates with these degrees
are seen as fungible; when demand drops in a given area, graduates focus on entirely different industries.
Petroleum engineers, mining engineers, textile engineers and to a lesser extent aerospace, marine and nuclear
engineers are tied to a single industry. When those industries experience ups and downs comparable to what
the oil and gas industry has experienced, not only is there wide variations in hiring demands but large-scale
layoffs may be inevitable. Demand for petroleum engineers rises and falls (Heinze) with a correlation to oil
prices and industry activity. Figure 9 shows petroleum engineering enrollments and inflation adjusted crude
oil prices. We have seen the correlation between activity and prices.
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Figure 9—Historical petroleum engineering enrollment and oil prices (Heinze, 2019)

The wide variability in demand and large-scale layoffs during down periods certainly has some impact on
students’ decisions to enter the industry. Wouldn't most of the students who decided to become petroleum
engineers over the 2008-1015 time period have been aware of what happened in the 1980s? I serve on
industry advisory boards at the Department or College level for four Universities and have asked this
question to scores of students. Uniformly they were aware of what many referred to as the "cyclical" nature
of demand yet were confident when they enrolled that they would find long-term career opportunities. In
the last year as I have spoken to many more students who have been unable to find the kind of industry
employment following graduation they had anticipated. While a significant number are evaluating or
planning options that will take them out of the industry, many remain optimistic.
"Real life" petroleum engineers have proven to be more resilient and more fungible than some had
thought. Petroleum engineers have found employment in industry adjacent sectors including finance,
banking, supply chain, software and other digital services. Still, few employers seeking to employ a
mechanical engineer or an electrical engineer will interview petroleum engineers.

The Changing Digital World

Technical computing has been a core strength of petroleum engineering since its inception and earth
scientists have embraced computational advances as they have occurred. I recall getting a phone call from
Hewlett Packard one day asking if they could meet with me. It turns out they were surprised at how
many programmable calculators were selling into the oil and gas industry and saw a few articles I had
written (see for example References 16–19,21–32). All across the petroleum industry, petroleum engineers
were grabbing up programmable calculators in an era immediately preceding the first widespread personal
computers. A 1979 article I wrote enabling an engineer to calculate z-factors for natural gas (using a
calculator) wound up being the most requested reprint from the Oil and Gas Journal that year. HP encouraged
me; Stanford Professor Hank Ramey and I would help develop the HP-41 Fluids Pac. I would eventually
co-author (32) the HP-41 Reservoir Engineering Manual with an HP programmer.
SPE-206269-MS 11

Thousands of other engineers adopted personal computers and started changing how we worked.
As personal computers became widespread and greater computational horsepower became affordable,
applications in numerical reservoir simulation, earth modeling, seismic processing, and interpretation,
petrophysics and geomechanics were developed that could never have come about without these advanced
computational capabilities (23). In every computational advance from faster processing to web applications
and throughout the technology transformations that made our society what it was, our industry stayed on the

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leading edge. This was appropriate as the 3rd industrial revolution depended on affordable electrical power
that would be delivered primarily by fossil fuels.
Ultimately, what we now refer to as the 4th industrial revolution presents challenges and opportunities
that will revolutionize how petroleum engineers work as much or more than all prior changes. Billions
of people are interconnected with mobile devices and a vast Internet of Things holds the potential to
interconnect every imaginable device and certainly all oilfield activities. Unimaginable volumes of data
will be generated; artificial intelligence, big data and machine learning now may be able to utilize this
massive data. Individual wells generate more than 1 Tb of data just during drilling; we have historically
used a tiny fraction of such data. While we measure enormous quantities of data the bulk of high frequency
information is simply used to ensure that we are operating within a desired range. I remember the first time
I walked into a room that was monitoring thousands of ESPs around the world. I imagined the possibility of
continuously calculating productivity indexes, watching for the evolution of skin or changing fluid ratios.
Perhaps we could even elucidate relative contributions from multi-layer systems. No, I learned that all
they really monitored was temperature and vibrations to make sure the pumps stayed within specifications.
Otherwise, the repair warranties were no good. Today, everything I had imagined is within sight. High
frequency drilling information predicts bit whorl hours before any conventional evidence can be seen, or
damage occurs. Whole platforms are monitored, and downtime is nearly a thing of the past. Stress data is
integrated with microseismic data, hydraulic fracture treating data and production performance to optimize
infill development for unconventionals.
Will our industry continue to lead? I think so and to do so, a new kind of digitally savvy petroleum
engineer will be needed. In the first few decades of my career, petroleum engineers slowly learned how to
function seamlessly with teams of earth scientists. We only added geomechanics to this team in the last few
decades. Now, we must learn to work with data scientists and programmers in much the same way. Taking
a course in Python or SQL might be a good idea. Sure, you should know what Hadoop data stores are. But
a few classes aren't going to turn a petroleum engineer into a data scientist, or a software engineer any more
than a class on waterflooding will convert a data scientist into a petroleum engineer.
Universities teaching petroleum engineering struggle with what is needed. This in part because what is
needed is changing so rapidly that it will be difficult to keep up. Of all the challenges faced by petroleum
engineers, this is the one where I am the most optimistic. The rising generation of petroleum engineers are
more computationally savvy, and data driven as any in history. Some of us may have been passed by. In
my consulting practice I recently had to deal with huge files containing very large amounts of data. I only
needed to perform some simple calculations that would normally be in the realm of Excel calculations;
these files were too large for Excel. I wrote a Fortran program that read, calculated, and output what I need
from these huge data sets. When someone saw that I had used Fortran I got a lot of good-natured(?) kidding
about it. It was as if I had written an SPE paper on a typewriter (which I did for many years) or gave a
talk using an overhead projector. I may not apologize for programming in an ancient language, but I sure
will not be bragging about it.

Energy Transition Issues

Many SPE members agree with me that crude oil and natural gas are critical in improving people's lives
(13) and that natural gas is a vital component in providing safe, affordable, and reliable energy. The role of
12 SPE-206269-MS

energy in improving all measures of quality of life is hardly debatable. As a group. SPE members are divided
on the topic of how much anthropomorphic carbon emissions (primarily from CO2 and CH4) contribute to
global warming and climate change. They are even more divided about proposed solutions ranging from
carbon pricing and taxes, regulatory restrictions and taxes designed to disincentivize fossil fuel use and
other actions fitting into the "what to do about it" category.
This level of disagreement is not so widespread among government regulators, legislators, and executives

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around the world where popular opinion on the matter is strongly anti-fossil fuel. The result has been trillions
of dollars spent on research and development of alternative energies, primarily solar and wind. Regardless
of whether or not petroleum engineers believe the energy transition is a good idea, realistic or affordable,
few doubt that we will have to live with increased regulations and taxes. Oil and gas companies, service
companies and the largest users of fossil fuels are facing enormous pressures because of a growing consensus
among bankers, large investors, regulators, and shareholders who want to see oil and gas companies decrease
carbon emissions.
Reporting of emissions varies widely. Most companies report only prior year emissions, and few have
actually measured the majority of their emissions. Some report carbon intensity here (refs). Carbon intensity
(CI) is the quantity of CO2 equivalent emissions generated from a process per unit of energy. Typical units
are grams/MJ, grams per KwH or even masses of CO2 per unit of GDP. We could use pounds or kilograms of
CO2 equivalents per barrel as well. The largest contribution of carbon emissions from oil and gas production
is the combustion and use of produced oil, from refinery to wheels (Meehan 2021). This is typically about
350–400 kg of CO2 equivalent per barrel. We use CO2 equivalent to include the greenhouse-gas (GHG)
impact of methane. Then, there is the energy and carbon expenditure of producing that hydrocarbon, well
to refinery. This includes drilling, completions, production, and transportation. Carbon emissions from the
wells to refinery vary from less than 25 kg to more than 300 kg CO2 equivalent per barrel, averaging about
100. Flaring and fugitive emissions are generally the largest contributors to these emissions.
Petroleum engineer's expertise in reserve estimation and oilfield operations including measurements
enables them to estimate CI better than any others. CI reporting should be a technical and not an accounting
and finance function. CI reporting is far from consistent now and appears in annual reports on an unaudited
basis. There is pressure to standardize CI reporting which now primarily focuses on a company's results
in the prior years. I strongly believe that we need to have consistent reporting rules and estimation
methodologies for CI of reserves.
One of the large issues in the energy transition is "the need for an enormous ramp-up of carbon capture,
utilization and storage (CCUS) technologies to meet global goals. Timing matters, not just scale." Current
levels of carbon storage are a tiny fraction of anticipated needs. The level of CCS projects needed within
about a decade require injecting and storing underground volumes of CO2 at approximately the volume
of the world's current oil production. By 2050 this amount will need to double further. The technical and
financial requirements to achieve this feat are comparable in scale to today's global oil and gas industry.
Approaches to decarbonizing oil and gas vary and there are many ways to dramatically reduce emissions
from all aspects of activities. Many service companies and operators made commitments to reduce carbon
emissions dramatically over the coming decades and many have committed to a "net zero" by 2050.
Most applications of non-fossil fuel energy have only limited or specialized applications in the petroleum
industry. We have long used photovoltaic cells to provide electricity for remote operations and solar energy
has seen some success in thermal EOR. While there are other examples, geothermal energy is a sweet spot for
petroleum engineers and the industry because the integration of subsurface reservoir characterization, well
drilling and completions and surface operations uses the skill sets needed for typical oil and gas activities.
Hydrogen is also a significant focus area in energy transition activities (Meehan 2020c). So called blue
hydrogen is generated from natural gas and coupled with carbon sequestration to largely eliminate carbon
emissions. Petroleum engineers are vital to scaling up blue hydrogen activity levels. Oil and gas companies
SPE-206269-MS 13

and service companies continue to invest in other energy transition activities ranging from biofuels to
offshore wind.
Not long ago, most forecasts for future global oil production were limited by supply constraints. Today,
confidence in the ability to supply world demand at the approximate 100 MMB/D level for decades is much
higher. The limiting factor in most forecasts now is demand, in spite of growing energy demands. We do
not know how far fossil fuel demand will fall, but the BP Energy Outlook 2020 has three scenarios, viz.

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Business as Usual, Rapid and Net Zero. The Net Zero case has liquid consumption falling from current
levels of about 100 MMB/D to about 30 MMB/D by 2050 (Figure 10). Even natural gas demand (Figure
11) is forecast to decline dramatic sharply in the Net Zero scenario. In the Net Zero and Rapid forecasts,
coal usage is essentially eliminated. Such a result would require China and India to close coal-fired power
plants that have either just opened or are being constructed.

Figure 10—Forecast liquid fuel consumption, (bp Energy Outlook 2020)

Figure 11—Forecast gas demand (Source: bp Energy Outlook 2020)

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Not all forecasts agree with BP, but petroleum engineers whose careers will stretch into the 2035 to 2050
timeframe will certainly be concerned about this potential outcome. If you believe either the Rapid or Net
Zero forecasts, how would you then respond to the question of "Should I become a petroleum engineer?"

Example recent actions

On May 26 of this year, A Dutch court ordered Royal Dutch Shell to drastically deepen planned greenhouse

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gas emission cuts. This ruling could trigger legal action against energy companies around the world.

Judge Larisa Alwin read out a ruling at a court room in The Hague, ordering Shell (RDSa.L) to reduce
its planet warming carbon emissions by 45% by 2030 from 2019 levels.
"The court orders Royal Dutch Shell, by means of its corporate policy, to reduce its CO2 emissions
by 45% by 2030 with respect to the level of 2019 for the Shell group and the suppliers and customers
of the group," Alwin said.

Shell's CEO acknowledged that complying with the orders would require materially shrinking the
business.
On that same day, ExxonMobil management lost a shareholder vote to a relatively small hedge fund
seeking to seat two members to the XOM Board of Directors. The primary differences these new Directors
have with ExxonMobil's direction is dealing with climate change. The company faces what may be a
disproportionate share of media focus on climate change issues in part because of their size and historical
leadership position within the industry. ExxonMobil's CEO Darren Woods recently "apologized and
disavowed statements made by two of the company's top Washington lobbyists after an environmental group
released a video recording of them dismissing its public positions on climate change." ExxonMobil is not
alone in terms of scrutiny and criticism in this regard.
The Biden administration proposed dramatic increases in efforts to reduce Greenhouse Gas Emissions
(GHGs) and increase the use of renewables. It is too early to tell how effective such measures will be. Many
world leaders are committed to moving their countries away from fossil fuels. What this means in terms
of actions, the timing and ultimate results are unclear. Governmental, societal and financial pressures will
continue to mount.
In January 2021, the Biden administration revoked the permit for the Keystone XL pipeline and
subsequently TC Energy the development's operator announced plans to cancel the project. Also, in January
the administration suspended oil and gas permitting on federal lands and waters and may seek a permanent
ban. While this may not be the end of either matter, government regulations can make material impacts on
the ability of the oil and gas industry to function effectively.

Can Petroleum Engineers be Part of the Solution?

Now the good news. No one has repealed the material balance equation or Darcy's law. Oil and gas reservoirs
continue to decline and will need ever increasing work to maximize recovery and rates. Only petroleum
engineers are well suited for decarbonizing this production. We have the expertise to eliminate most flaring
and venting. We can make sure that flaring is infrequent, brief, and efficient. We can eliminate routine
venting. Just in Latin America, replacing pneumatic actuators which release small amounts of methane each
time they are used with electric actuators can reduce carbon emissions by more than the amount of all current
CO2 storage projects worldwide (Meehan 2020b). Technology for monitoring surface emissions using CH4
sensors is being advanced with fixed ground sensors, aerial sensors, and even satellite-based sensors. Big
data and machine learning methodologies for monitoring these disparate approaches will help identify
large leaks immediately and small ones more reliably and rapidly. AI-based techniques for optimizing flare
efficiency when flaring is required will reduce CH4 emissions from remaining flaring.
SPE-206269-MS 15

Petroleum engineers are uniquely suited to address issues in carbon capture and storage. We combine long
experience in CO2 handling, storage, separation and injection for EOR projects with understanding of the
subsurface, the ability to translate earth models prepared by petrophysicists, geologists, geophysicists and
geomechanics experts into reliable models to forecast the pressures, temperatures, saturations and spatial
distribution of injected CO2. Widespread CCS will require financial incentives to reach the scales required
to make a measurable impact on global emissions. It is unknown what form these incentives will take but

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they will have to be substantial to generate the kind of capital required. If these incentives included benefits
for volumes of CO2 stored, those issuing the incentives will require proof that injected CO2 stays where it
belongs. Petroleum engineers are uniquely suited to integrating advanced monitoring capabilities including
fiber optics, downhole and surface sensors, mathematical models and more.
Oil and gas activity will remain important for decades to come. If consumption does not fall so rapidly
as the Net Zero forecast (in particular, I am skeptical of the major coal users’ willingness to eliminate the
use of this cheap fossil fuel so quickly) we will need additional discoveries to meet demand. Regardless of
forecasts, petroleum engineers are capable of reducing carbon intensity of current and future activities.
Data analytics and machine learning capabilities continue to expand and change the way petroleum
engineers solve problems. There is little doubt that a new type of more digitally savvy petroleum engineer
will emerge to solve many aspects of future problems.

Conclusions
In "The End of Petroleum Engineering as We Know It" we questioned whether we would continue to need
as many petroleum engineers as we had in the past. Counting student and professional members there
were 168,000 SPE members when I served as SPE President. I hope we surpass that number someday.
However, the type of petroleum engineers needed will certainly change. We will need a more digitally savvy
engineer who works as well with machine learning, big data and AI as with mud rheology, pressure transient
testing and hydraulic fracturing. Future petroleum engineers will be as engaged in sustainability, increasing
efficiency and reducing emissions as past engineers have been on improving operating margins and net
cash flow. Becoming a contributor to reducing carbon intensity will be essential to retain a social license to
operate as it is to remain in business. No, it is not the end of petroleum engineering. It is a new beginning.

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Journal, 95–100, May 1980.
SPE-206269-MS 17

27. D. N. Meehan: "Hyperbolic Oil Production Decline Analysis Programmed," Oil and Gas Journal,
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