The Effect of Ethnic and Religious

Conflict on Growth

Jose G. Montalvo*
IVIE and Department of Economics
Universitat Pompeu Fabra

and

Marta Reynal-Querol
Institut d’Analisis Economic (CSIC)

Abstract
This paper analyzes the role that different dimensions of ethnicity plays in the process of
growth of a country. We cover essentially four issues. First, and in contrast with the ethnic
characteristics considered in other studies, this paper emphasizes the importance of
religious conflict in the explanation of economic growth. Second we consider an index of
polarization, instead of the traditional index of fragmentation, in order to measure conflict.
We provide a theoretical justification for the index based on rent-seeking models. Third, we
elaborate a database on religious diversity within countries and finally we analyze the
channels through which religious polarization affects growth. The main finding is that
religious conflict, measured as a polarization index, is an important factor in explaining
economic growth and the so called ``Africa's growth tragedy''. We show that, when
religious polarization is included in growth regressions together with ethnolingustic
fragmentation this last one turns out to be insignificant while the former is an important
determinant of economic growth and, in particular, of the poor economic performance of
Africa (JEL: O11, Z12, O55).

Keywords: Religious polarization, Africa’s growth tragedy, growth regression.

*
Corresponding author: Jose G. Montalvo, Department of Economics, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, C/ Ramon
Trias Fargas 25-27, Barcelona 08005. Phone: (34) 93 542 2509. Fax: (34) 93 542 17 46. Email:
montalvo@upf.es.
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importante en la
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tanto, También
puede ser una

?@|L? Lu }hL| @?_ |ihiuLhi | U@? Mi @*tL @? 4TLh|@?| i T*@?@|L? uLh uhU@<t explicación
importante de la
tragedia del

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|i ThiU@hLt ?|ih?@|L?@* M@*@?Ui U @TTi@hi_ ? |i v@*|@ UL?uihi?Ui @| |i
i?_ Lu `Lh*_ `@h WW O?|?}|L? EbbS ThLTLtit @?L|ih 4L_i* |L ?|ihThi| |i ?i Huntington (1996)
propone otro modelo para

hi@*|) Lu |i Lh*_c M@ti_ L? |i u@U| |@| |i i T*@?@|Lh) u@U|Lht @hi ?L| _iL*L}U@* interpretar la nueva
realidad del mundo,
basándose en que los

M| U*|h@* iLT*i _i?|u) |i4ti*it ? u?U|L? Lu |ih U*|h@* _i?||) Aiti
factores explicativos no
son ideológicos sino
culturales. Las personas

?i UL?U|t ** |i?_ |L @i Lh}?@|i_ ? |i *?it Lu uh@U|hi Mi|ii? U*3@|L?t
se identifican en función
de su identidad cultural.
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tenderán a haberse
6L**L?} O?|?}|L?c i @i |L }h@?| |L hi*}L?t @ u?_@4i?|@* hL*i ? Lh*_ TL* originado en las líneas de
fractura entre
civilizaciones.
|Ut Ai u@| @?_ |i u@4*)c |i M*LL_ @?_ |i Mi*iut @hi |i |?}t | U
TiLT*i _i?|u) |i4ti*itc uLh U |i) €}| @?_ _i AihiuLhi ? |i u|hi i
4@) tii @ *@h}i UL?U| @4L?} U*3@|L?tS iLT*i Mi*L?}?} |L _gihi?| hi*}L?t Las personas que
pertenecen a diferentes
@i _gihi?| tL?t Lu |i hi*@|L? Mi|ii? BL_ @?_ 4@?tc Mi|ii? ?__@*t religiones tienen diferentes
visiones de la relación
entre Dios y los humanos,
@?_ }hLTtc Mi|ii? U|3i?tT @?_ t|@|ic Mi|ii? u@|ih @?_ tL?c Mi|ii? tM@?_ entre individuos y grupos,
entre ciudadanía y Estado,
entre padre e hijo, entre
@?_ ui( 4LhiLih |i) @i @*tL _gihi?| tL?t Lu |i hi*@|i 4TLh|@?Ui Lu |ih marido y mujer; además,
también tienen visiones
diferentes de la
h}|t @?_ hitTL?tM*|itc Lu uhii_L4 @?_ @|Lh|)c Lu i^@*|) @?_ ih@hU) Aiti importancia relativa de sus
derechos y
responsabilidades, de la
_gihi?Uit @hi |i ThL_U| Lu Ui?|hit Lu t|Lh)c @?_ |i) _L ?L| _t@TTi@h i@t libertad y la autoridad, de
la igualdad y la jerarquía.
Estas diferencias son
*) Ai _gihi?Uit @4L?} U*3@|L?t @i Mii? |i U@ti Lu |i *L?}it| @?_ 4Lt| producto de siglos de
historia y no desaparecen
fácilmente. Las diferencias

L*i?| UL?U|t ? t|Lh) entre civilizaciones han

sido la causa de los
conflictos más largos y

?i Lu |i 4Lt| 4TLh|@?| U@tit Lu |i UL?U| @4L?} U*3@|L?t t |@| |ih violentos de la historia.

Una de las causas más

U@h@U|iht|Ut @?_ _gihi?Uit @hi *itt 4|@M*i |@? L|ih u@U|Lht AihiuLhi *i
importantes del conflicto
entre civilizaciones es que
sus características y
diferencias son menos
| 4@)Mi TLttM*i |L hi@U @? @}hii4i?| ? TL*|U@* Lh iUL?L4U ttit | t 4U mutables que otros
factores.

4Lhi _U*|c uLh ?t|@?Uic |L UL4ThL4ti ? hi*}Lt 4@||iht Lhi |@? L|ih
9 Wkh dwwdfnv ri Vhswhpehu 44 dqg wkhlu diwhupdwk vhhp wr vxssruw wklv wkhru|1

.
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@hi |L M@tU hi@tL?t ) hi*}Lt _gihi?Uit U@? }i?ih@|i 4Lhi L*i?Ui |@? L|ih
tLU@* U*i@@}it 6ht|c |ihi t ?L| _LM| Lu |i i U*t|) Lu hi*}L? ?i U@?
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_gihi?Uit @4L?} U*3@|L?tc 4T*) _gihi?| @)t Lu ?_iht|@?_?} |i Lh*_c tLU@*
hi*@|L?tTti|U ,i? u _gihi?| }hLTt tTi@! _gihi?| *@?}@}itc |i) UL*_ t@hi
|i t@4i @) Lu ?_iht|@?_?} |i Lh*_ @?_ |i hi*@|L?tTt u |i) Mi*L?} |L |i
t@4i U*3@|L? OLiihc |t t 4Lhi _U*| uLh TiLT*i Lu _gihi?| hi*}L?t

H
La relación entre diversidad religiosa y conflicto social no es fácil. Inicialmente, se podría pensar que el aumento de la diversidad religiosa aumenta la probabilidad de conflictos sociales. Sin embargo,
este no tiene que ser el caso. Las diferencias religiosas son divisiones sociales importantes en la sociedad.Como tal, diferentes grupos tienen diferentes preferencias que pueden generar tensiones
entre ellos.

El conflicto puede describirse como situación en la que jugadores asimétricos, con una situación inicial exógena, luchan por obtener un premio, en este caso poder, que no aumenta con los recursos
gastados. Siguiendo a Baik (1992), los esfuerzos que los jugadores dedican a luchar entre sí en competencias de búsqueda de rentas pueden interpretarse como un costo social. El punto clave es
entonces encontrar cuál es la distribución de grupos sociales que genera el máximo coste social, definido como la suma de los recursos gastados por todos los grupos sociales. Diferentes
aplicaciones del modelo de búsqueda de rentas muestran que el costo social, o el conflicto social, es máximo bajo una distribución bimodal siempre que las preferencias entre grupos satisfagan una
condición de simetría.

Es fácil justificar por qué las sociedades con divisiones sociales tienen una alta probabilidad de conflictos sociales si la distribución subyacente de los grupos se aproxima a una distribución bimodal.
En un país en el que hay una sola religión no hay interacción religiosa. Por el contrario, si hay tantas religiones como individuos, no se gana nada en luchar unos contra otros. Por lo tanto, cuando el
número de religiones aumenta desde el mínimo, aumentan las tensiones religiosas. Sin embargo, debe llegar un punto en el que el aumento del número de religiones reduzca las tensiones. Por tanto
podemos conjeturar que debe existir un punto de máxima tensión. De hecho, en un marco teórico, Esteban y Rav (1999) encuentran que el alcance de los conflictos está estrechamente relacionado
con la bimodalidad de la distribución subyacente de las características del agente.

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|i }hLT |L 4@Lh|) W? @ t|@|L? ? U |i TLT*@|L? t U@h@U|ihti_ M) |L
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LM|@? @ t|hL?} tTTLh| t@|tu)?} |i ?|ihit| Lu L?i Lu |i }hLTc UL4T@hi_ | @
t|@|L? ? U |ihi @hi |hii _gihi?| hi*}Lt }hLTt EI( I( I W| t
?*!i*) |@| |i }Lih?4i?| ** |@!i 4i@thit M@ti_ ? hi*}Lt _gihi?Uit ? Lh_ih
|L t@|tu) L?*) @ |h_ Lu |i TLT*@|L? MiU@ti | ** @i 2% Lu |i TLT*@|L?
@}@?t| |i4 Ai U*Ltih |L EDfI( DfI t |i _tL? Lu |i TLT*@|L? ? hi*}Lt
UL**iU|itc |i 4Lhi ThLM@M*i t |@| }Lih?4i?| Mi@i t?} hi*}Lt _gihi?Uit
@?_c |ihiuLhic 4Lhi ThLM@M*i t |@| TiLT*i hi@U|
W? @__|L? i@U hi*}Lt }hLT tiit |i L|ih hi*}Lt UL**iU|it @t @ |hi@|
Ai u@U| |@| L?i hi*}Lt }hLT tii |i L|iht @t @ |hi@| 4T*it |@| | @t |L
hi@h4 |t _i?||) @t @ }hLT At 4T*it @ t|@|L? Lu |i?tL?t @4L?} |iti
tLU@* }hLTtc U }i?ih@|it tLU@* uhU|L?tc |@| U@? ThL4L|i ?t|@M*|) ? |i Inicialmente, un grupo
religioso ve a otros
colectivos más como
UL?|h) W?|@**)c @ hi*}Lt }hLT tii L|ih UL**iU|it 4Lhi @t @ |hi@| |i *@h}ih una amenaza cuanto
mayor es el tamaño
del otro grupo en

t |i t3i Lu |i L|ih }hLT hi*@|i |L |t L? t3i 6Lh ?t|@?Uic ? @ UL?|h) | relación con su propio
tamaño. Por ejemplo,
en un país con dos

|L hi*}L?tc i@U }hLT t uLh |i L|ih @ |hi@| 4Lhi _@?}ihLt |@? ? @ UL?|h) religiones, cada grupo
representa para el otro
una amenaza más

| |hii hi*}L?t Lu i^@* t3i AihiuLhi |i U*Ltih t |i UL?|h) |L |i EDfI(
peligrosa que en un
país con tres religiones
del mismo tamaño. Por

DfI t|@|L?c |i }ih @hi tLU@* uhU|L?t

tanto, cuanto más
cerca esté el país del
(50%;50%), mayores
son las fricciones
wi|<t @?@*)ti @ t|@|L? ? U |ihi i t| L?*) |L hi*}Lt }hLTt ?i Lu sociales.

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|i i t|i?Ui Lu tLU@* uhU|L? t?Ui |i 4?Lh|) }hLT t hi@h4?} |t _i?||) L?*) cuanto mayor es el
tamaño de la minoría,
más miedo tiene el
uLh Mi?} @ 4?Lh|) LhiLihc |i *@h}ih t |i t3i Lu |i 4?Lh|) |i 4Lhi @gh@_ grupo mayoritario y, por
tanto, más fuertes
serán las reacciones
t |i 4@Lh|) }hLT @?_c |ihiuLhic |i t|hL?}ih |i hi@U|L?t @}@?t| 4?Lh|it contra las minorías.
Esto significa que las
fricciones sociales
** Mi At 4i@?t |@| tLU@* uhU|L?t ** Mi }ih AihiuLhic |i U*Ltih |L |i serán mayores. Por lo
tanto, cuanto más
cerca de la situación
EDfI(DfI t|@|L?c |i *@h}ih ** Mi |i hi@U|L?t @}@?t| |i 4?Lh|itc U (50%;50%), mayores
serán las reacciones
contra las minorías, lo

4T*it @ } *ii* Lu tLU@* uhU|L? que implica un alto

nivel de fricción social.

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El principal resultado de
los modelos rentistas

Ai 4@? hit*| Lu hi?|tii!?} 4L_i*t TL?|t L| |@| tLU@* ULt| t |i }it|c @?_ señala que el costo
social es mayor y las
tensiones sociales

tLU@* |i?tL?t i4ih}i 4Lhi i@t*)c i? |i TLT*@|L? t _t|hM|i_ ? |L }hLTt
surgen más fácilmente
cuando la población se
distribuye en dos grupos

Lu i^@* t3i AihiuLhi @ ?@|h@* @) |L UL?t|hU| @? ?_i |@| hiiU|t |i *ii* Lu
de igual tamaño. Por lo
tanto, una forma natural
de construir un índice
que refleje el nivel de
|i?tL?t @?_ |@| t *?!i_ | |iti 4L_i*tc L*_ Mi |L UL?t|hU| @? ?_U@|Lh Lu tensiones y que esté
vinculado con estos
modelos, sería construir
_t|@?Ui uhL4 M4L_@*|) `@| i @?| |L U@T|hi t |i _t|@?Ui Lu @?) _t|hM|L? un indicador de distancia
de la bimodalidad. Lo
que queremos capturar
Lu hi*}Lt }hLTt uhL4 |i t|@|L? |@| *i@_t |L |i 4@ 44 UL?U| es la distancia de
cualquier distribución de
grupos religiosos de la
W? Lh_ih |L UL?t|hU| |t ?_i i uL**L tiih@* t|iTtG situación que conduce al
conflicto máximo.
Para construir este
índice seguimos varios
pasos:
@ 6ht| i UL?t_ih |i _i@|L?t Lu |i ThLTLh|L? Lu i@U hi*}L? uhL4 |i a) Primero
consideramos las
4@ 44c fD W? Lh_ih |L i}| i^@**) TLt|i @?_ ?i}@|i _gihi?Uit uhL4 fD desviaciones de la
proporción de cada
religión del máximo, 0,5.
i |@!i |i t^@hi Lu |i _gihi?Ui Para ponderar
diferencias igualmente
positivas y negativas a
partir de 0,5 tomamos el
cuadrado de la

M Ai?c i i}| i@U Lu |Lti _i@|L?t M) |i ThLTLh|L? |@| i@U hi*}L? diferencia.

b) Luego, ponderamos

hiThiti?|tc ? Lh_ih |L }i |L i@U }hLT @ i}| ThLTLh|L?@* |L |t t3i

cada una de esas
desviaciones por la
proporción que

  
representa cada religión,

[
para darle a cada grupo

fD  Z 2
un peso proporcional a

U-  '   Z
su tamaño.
E
' fD Este índice proporciona
un orden de clasificación
de las diferentes
At ?_i ThL_it @ h@?!?} Lh_ih Lu |i _gihi?| _t|hM|L?t Lu |i TLT*@|L?H distribuciones de la
población.

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}hLT @?_ tT*| | ?|L 6  2 }hLTt ? tU @ @) |@| Z 'Z  Z  ;'2c?nc ihi
dos grupos,
uno de los

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divide, la
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t _gihi?| _iTi?_?} L? |i t3i Lu |i }hLTt W4@}?i @ TLT*@|L? UL4TLti_

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TLT*@|L? uhL4 L?i t4@** }hLT |L |i L|ihc |i UL?U| ?Uhi@ti `i @hi ? |i
UL?U@i T@h| Lu |i u?U|L? OLiih u |i _t|hM|L? t EfeDc feDc fc @?_ i
|h@?tuih TLT*@|L? uhL4 L?i M} }hLT |L |i L|ihc |i UL?U| _iUhi@ti At t
MiU@ti i @hi ? |i UL?i hi}L? `@| t |i ?||L? Mi?_ |t hit*|q W? |i En el primer caso,
incluso esa
€ht| U@tic ii? |@| |h@?tuih 4T*it |@| |i _t|hM|L? t 4Lhi ?i^@* ? |i ?i transferencia implica
que la distribución es
más desigual en la
t|@|L?G L?i Lu |i t4@** }hLTt t *@h}ihc hitTiU| |L |i M} }hLTc U 4i@?t nueva situación: uno
de los grupos
pequeños es más

|@| i @hi U*Ltih |L TL*@h3@|L? W? |i tiUL?_ U@tic |i |h@?tuih 4T*it |@| L?i Lu grande respecto al
grupo grande, lo que
significa que estamos

|i M} LTTLt|Lht MiU@4i t4@**ihc @?_ |ihiuLhi |i ?i t|@|L? t *itt TL*@h3i_ más cerca de la
polarización. En el
segundo caso, la

L|Ui |@| |i hit*|t 4T*it |@| |t ?_i _Lit ?L| t@|t€it |i ThLTih|it Lu |i
transferencia implica
que uno de los
grandes opositores se

wLhi?3 Uhi @ML| UL?U@|) W? @ wLhi?3 Uhi |t igiU| Lu 4L?} TiLT*i Mi|ii?
hizo más pequeño y,
por tanto, la nueva
situación está menos
polarizada.
t4@** Lh M} }hLTt t |i t@4i W| t 4TLh|@?| |L ?L|Ui @?L|ih _gihi?Ui | |i
wLhi?3 Uhi _L4?@?Uic U t |@| Lh 4i@thi t }*LM@* @?_ |i wLhi?3 Uhi t
?L| `*i |i wLhi?3 Uh|ih@ t|@M*tit |i 4T@U| L? ?i^@*|) Lu @ *LU@* |h@?tuih


 el efeco sobre la polarizacion de transferir poblacion de un grupo
a otro no puede ser establecido sin saber la distribucion total.
Esto va en sintonia con Esteban y Ray 1994

?_iTi?_i?|*) Lu |i t@Ti Lu |i hit| Lu |i _t|hM|L?c ? Lh U@ti |i igiU| L?
TL*@h3@|L? Lu |i |h@?tuih TLT*@|L? uhL4 @ }hLT |L @?L|ih U@? ?L| Mi t|@M*ti_
|L| !?L?} |i i?|hi _t|hM|L?b 
hLTih|) 2G W| @||@?t |t 4@ 44 @| |i MTL*@h t)44i|hU _t|hM|L? Propiedad 2: se
alcanza un maximo
hLLuG 5|iT G 5TTLti |ihi @hi  }hLTt Lu @?) t3i A@!i |i M}}it| L?i de polarizacion con
una distribucion
bipolar simetrica
@?_ tiT@h@|i | uhL4 |i L|ih Ai? 4ih}i @** |i L|ih }hLTt ?|L L?i }hLT )
ThLTih|)  TL*@h3@|L? ?Uhi@tit A@| tc |i ?i _t|hM|L? @t 4Lhi TL*@h3@|L?
|@? |i Lh}?@* L?i At 4i@?t |@|c }i? @?) _t|hM|L? Lu  }hLTtc W U@?
@*@)t €?_ @?L|ih _t|hM|L? L? |L }hLTt ihi TL*@h3@|L? t *@h}ih
5|iT 2G 5TTLti ?L |@| i L?*) @i |L }hLTt Lu Z @?_ E  Z  t3it Ai
TL*@h3@|L? ?_i U-  '  
S2
EfD  Z 2 Z *f2D '   eiEfD  Z 2 Z n EfD 
'
E  Z 2E  Z j
@? Mi hi@_*) ih€i_ |@| |t i ThittL? t 4@ 43i_ @| Z ' Z2 ' fD
 Propiedad 3: Si se
pasa de dos grupos
de tamaño similar a
dos nuevos grupos
hLTih|) G 5TTLti i t|@h| | TLT*@|L? i^@**) _t|hM|i_ Lih |L creados a partir de
divisiones de los
dos originarios, si
}hLTt wi| t |h@?tuih % uhL4 uhL4 i@U Lh}?@h) }hLT |L |L ?i*) Uhi@|i_ }hLTt estos cuatro grupos
son de tamaño
similar, la
Ai? |i ?_i t ?L?4L?L|L?U | hitTiU| |L %c @?_c | hi@Uit |t 4?44 @| polarizacion
desaparece.

uLh i^@**) t3i_ }hLTt

hLLuG 5|@h| | |L }hLTt Lu t3i %2 i@Uc @?_ tu| % uhL4 i@U }hLT ?|L
@ ?i }hLT L |i TL*@h3@|L? ?_i t |i uL**L?}G
U-  '   ei2EfD  %2 % n 2%2 EfD  %j '   eE*2  %%
At t 4?43i_ @| % ' *e
AihiuLhic |i ?_i t ?L?4L?L|L?U +i@Uit |t 4?44 @| e i^@**) t3i_
}hLTt
porposito 4: si la
hLTih|) eG L?t_ih |i TLT*@|L? __i_ ?|L  }hLTt Lu t3i *  L*@h poblacion se divide
en el tama;o 1/N
grupos, la
3@|L? }Lit _L? |   polarizacion baja.

< Wklv lv d surshuw| wkdw dovr kdv wkh phdvxuh ri srodul}dwlrq sursrvhg e| Hvwhedq dqg Ud|
+4<<7,1

e
 S

W?_ii_c |i ?_i U-  '   EfD  Z 2 Z *f2D '   e E*2  * 2 E*  '
'
  eE*2  * 2
*i@h*)c |i ?_i t t|hU|*) _iUhi@t?} ?  
si los grupos
hLTih|) DG Wu i t|@h| | @ ?uLh4 _t|hM|L? Lih  }hLTtc @?) 4ih}?} se fucionan,
aumenta la
polarizacion
Lu & @_@Ui?| }hLTt ** ?Uhi@ti TL*@h3@|L?At t @ _hiU| ULhL*@h) Lu ThLTih|) e

Ai ?_i U-  Mi*L?}t |L |i U*@tt Lu TL*@h3@|L? 4i@thit W? Lh_ih |L tL
|@| |i hit*|t LM|@?i_ ? |i hi}hittL? @?@*)tt @hi hLMt| |L L|ih TL*@h3@|L?
?_Uitc ? |i i4ThU@* @TT*U@|L?t i UL4T@hi |i TihuLh4@?Ui Lu |i ?_i Lu
hi*}Lt TL*@h3@|L? 4i@thi_ M) U-  | |i TL*@h3@|L? 4i@thi ThLTLti_ M)
,t|iM@? @?_ +@) Ebbe Aih Lh}?@* ?_i @t @ 4i@thi Lu TL*@h3@|L? Lu ?UL4i
_t|hM|L? M| | U@? @*tL Mi |i M@ti uLh @? ?_i Lu UL?U| Ai) @h}i |@| |i
Antes de aplicar la
4Lt| TL*@h3i_ t|@|L? ULhhitTL?_t |L @? ?UL4i _t|hM|L? |@| t M4L_@* `i? medida propuesta por
Esteban y Ray (1994)
hay que demostrar
t?} ,t|iM@? @?_ +@)<t 4i@thi i _i?L|i_ hi*}Lt TL*@h3@|L? M) U- 2 iuLhi que la polarización de
la distribución
religiosa de la
@TT*)?} |i 4i@thi ThLTLti_ M) ,t|iM@? @? +@) Ebbe | @t |L Mi tLi_ |@| |i sociedad exhibe las
características
básicas que Esteban
TL*@h3@|L? Lu |i hi*}Lt _t|hM|L? Lu |i tLUi|) i M|t |i M@tU ui@|hit |@| y Ray sostienen que
debe exhibir la
polarización de una
,t|iM@? @?_ +@) @h}i |@| |i TL*@h3@|L? Lu @ _t|hM|L? Lu ?__@* @||hM|it distribución de
atributos individuales:

4t| i M|G
CARACTERÍSTICA 1:

6,AN+, G Aihi 4t| Mi @ } _i}hii Lu L4L}i?i|) |? }hLTt Debe haber un alto
grado de
homogeneidad dentro

*i@h*) ? |i hi*}Lt _t|hM|L?c |ihi t L4L}i?i|) Lu Mi*iitc @?_ ? 4Lt|

de los grupos.
Es evidente que en la
distribución religiosa

U@titc @*tL L4L}i?i|) ? @)t Lu *?} uL**L?} |Lti Mi*iitf

hay homogeneidad de
creencias y, en la
mayoría de los casos,
también
homogeneidad en las
formas de vivir según
6,AN+, 2G Aihi 4t| Mi @ } _i}hii Lu i|ihL}i?i|) @UhLtt }hLTt esas creencias10.

CARACTERÍSTICA 2:
W? |i hi*}Lt _t|hM|L? |ihi t i|ihL}i?i|) Lu Mi*iit t?Ui |i ?__@*t Debe haber un alto
grado de
heterogeneidad entre
Lu _gihi?| hi*}Lt }hLTt Mi*ii ? @ _gihi?| hi*}L? los grupos.
En la distribución
religiosa existe
43 Krzhyhu/ lq vrph odujh uholjlrqv wkhuh pd| eh frqlfw dprqj glhuhqw jurxsv1 Vhfwlrq 7 suhvhqwv heterogeneidad de
creencias ya que los
individuos de
d glvfxvvlrq ri wklv lvvxh1 diferentes grupos
religiosos creen en
una religión diferente.

D
 FUNCIÓN 3: Debe
haber un número
reducido de grupos de

6,AN+, G Aihi 4t| Mi @ t4@** ?4Mih Lu t}?€U@?|*) t3i_ }hLTt W? tamaño significativo.
En particular, los
grupos de tamaño

T@h|U*@hc }hLTt Lu ?t}?€U@?| t3i EuLh ?t|@?Ui tL*@|i_ ?__@*t U@hh) *||*i insignificante (por
ejemplo, individuos
aislados) tienen poco

i}|
peso.

Ai hi*}Lt _t|hM|L? @*tL t@|t€it |t ui@|hi MiU@ti ? |i _@|@ i ?iih
LMtihi 4Lhi |@? |i*i t}?€U@?|*) t3i_ }hLTt ? @ UL?|h)

Ai TL*@h3@|L? 4i@thi ThLTLti_ M) ,t|iM@? @?_ +@) Ebbe tG

S
? S
? nk
Z Z m+  + m
 W EZc t  ' g
'  '
uLh tL4i UL?t|@?| g : f @?_ k 5 Efc kW o ihi kW * Sc + t ?UL4i Tih U@T|@
@?_ Z t |i hi*@|i t3i Lu |i }hLT

TT*)?} |t 4i@thi |L |i _t|hM|L? Lu hi*}L?tc | t TLttM*i |L 4@!i L

Aplicando esta medida a
la distribución de
religiones, es posible

4L}i?iLt |i _t|@?Uit Mi|ii? hi*}L?t }i? |@| |ihi t ?L }LL_ 4i@thi Lu
homogeneizar las
distancias entre
religiones dado que no
existe una buena
|i _t|@?Uit @UhLtt hi*}L?t |@| |@!it ?|L @UUL?| |i |i*i hi*}L?t ti_ ? |t medida de las distancias
entre religiones que
tenga en cuenta las
@?@*)tt  AihiuLhic |i _t|@?Ui @UhLtt hi*}L?t ** Mi ?Lh4@*3i_ |L  @?_ |i doce religiones
utilizadas en este
análisis". Por lo tanto, la
_t|@?Ui |? |i t@4i hi*}L? ** Mi 3ihL MLt*)c t?} _gihi?| _t|@?Uit distancia entre religiones
se normalizará a 1 y la
distancia dentro de la
@UhLtt hi*}L?t L*_ U*i@h*) 4ThLi |i ?_i |@| U@T|hit UL?U| @UhLtt hi*}L?t misma religión será 0.
Obviamente, usar
diferentes distancias
entre religiones
mejoraría claramente el
At ?_i MiUL4it |i uL**L?}G índice que captura el
conflicto entre religiones.

S
? S
?
 W EZ  ' g Znk Z _ ' U- 2
'  '
ihi _ '  u  9'  @?_ _ ' f u  ' 

6Lh i@U TLttM*i k |ihi t @ _gihi?| TL*@h3@|L? u?U|L? AihiuLhic i?

t?} |i ,t|iM@? @?_ +@) Ebbe 4i@thi i @i @ UL?|?Lt h@?! Lu TLttM*|it
_iTi?_?} L? |i ULti? k2 
44 Edefkxn +4<<3, dqg Urri/ Zdgh Fodun/ dqg Kdgdzd| +4<:<,1
45 Lq wkh hpslulfdo dssolfdwlrq zh zloo fkrrvh wkh  wkdw pd{lpl}hv wkh U0vtxduhg ri wkh jurzwk

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Ai 4@? tLhUi Lu _@|@ uLh hi*}Lt _iht|) Lu @ UL?|h)<t TLT*@|L? UL4it uhL4
@hhi|<t EbH2 `Lh*_ ht|@? ,?U)U*LTi_@ Ai ThLTLh|L? Lu i@U hi*}L? t
UL?t|hU|i_ uhL4 |i @?tih |L |i ^it|L? `@| t )Lh hi*}L?q ? TM*U TL**t
5iih@* T@Tiht @i ti_ |t _@|@ |L @?@*)3i |i _i|ih4?@?|t Lu _i4LUh@U) Lh |i
4@? u@U|Lht Mi?_ U* @hte  @hhL Ebb. tit |t _@|@ @?_ _t|?}tit ??i
hi*}Lt }hLTtG @|L*Uc hL|it|@?|tc t*4tc O?_t E?U*_it a@?t @?_ 5!tc
__t|tc 4tUi**@?iLt i@t|ih? hi*}L?t E?iti uL*! hi*}L?tc L?uU@?t4 @?_
?i hi*}L?t|tc ?L ThLuitti_ hi*}L? @?_ L|ih hi*}Lt }hLTt
`i _iU_i ?L| |L ti _hiU|*) @hhL<t _@|@ MiU@ti |i) _L ?L| hiThiti?| |
tUi?| _i|@* @** |i hi*}L?tc @?_ i @i LMtihi_ ? |i `Lh*_ ht|@? ,?U)
U*LTi_@ |@| |ihi t |LL 4U ?ih|@ ? |i }hL| h@|i Lu tL4i hi*}L?tc 4@?*) |i
@|L*U `i UL?t|hU| Lh _@|@ t?} itti?|@**) |L tLhUit Lu ?uLh4@|L?G Rw<,|@|
_it +i*}L?t _@?t *i 4L?_i E,+c U |@!it |i _@|@ uhL4 |i R`Lh*_ ht|@?
,?U)U*LTi_@ E`, @?_ ULhhiU|t |i4 t?} tL4i ?@|L?@* tLhUit U @**Lt
|L |@!i ?|L @UUL?| _LM*i Th@U|Uit( @?_ RAi 5|@|it4@? vi@h<t LL! Lu bH.E5v
W? 4@?) U@tit |i |L M@tU tLhUit UL?U_i @?_ i |@!i |@| @*i |L Mi |i ULhhiU|
L?i W? tL4i L|ih U@tit |i 5v _Lit ?L| ThL_i i?L} _t@}}hi}@|L? @?_ i ti
|i ,+ Ai }hi@| @_@?|@}i Lu |i 5v t |i i |hi4i _i|@* L? @?4t| hi*}L?tD 
Ai `Lh*_ ht|@? ,?U)U*LTi_@ E`, @t |i @_@?|@}i Lu Mi?} @ UhLtt
tiU|L? Lu |4i tihitc ThL_?} ?uLh4@|L? uLh b.fc b.D @?_ bHf OLiihc @t
i TL?|i_ L| MiuLhic |t tLhUi @t tiih@* tLh|UL4?}t 6ht|c @?_ ThLM@M*) |i
udwh uhjuhvvlrq lqfoxglqj wkh uholjlrxv frqlfw1 Wklv ydoxh wxuqv wr eh lq wkh udqjh ri ihdvleoh ydoxhv
iru = Wkh idfw wkdw  lv qrw ghwhuplqhg iurp wkh wkhruhwlfdo prgho exw kdv wr eh hvwlpdwhg uhgxfhv
wkh xvh ri wklv vhfrqg srodul}dwlrq lqgh{ wr d pdwwhu ri frpsdulvrq zlwk uhvshfw wr rxu rzq lqgh{1
46 Iru lqvwdqfh Eduur +4<<9,1
47 Froolhu dqg Krhhu +4<<<, xvh Eduur*v gdwd1
48 Zh frqiurqwhg wkh gdwd zlwk qdwlrqdo vrxufhv lq rughu wr lpsuryh wkh uholdelolw| ri wklv
lqirupdwlrq1

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4Lt| 4TLh|@?|c |i _@|@ _Lit ?L| UL?t_ih |i TLttM*|) Lu _LM*i Th@U|Uic ih)
UL44L? ? 5M 5@@h@? uhU@ @?_ w@|? 4ihU@ UL?|hit L4T@h?} |t |L |i
L|ih tLhUit Lu ?uLh4@|L? i hi@*3i |@| |i _@|@ t M@ti_ |L@h_t |i ht|@?
hi*}L?  U*i@h i @4T*i t |i U@ti Lu ~@hi ? U |i _t|hM|L? Lu hi*}L?t
t UL?t_ihi_ |L Mi t4*@h |L 5T@? Lh W|@*) Ai _t|hM|L? Lu hi*}Lt }hLTt
Mi|ii? b.f @?_ bHf _Lit ?L| U@?}i ? 4@?) UL?|hit Aihi @hi L?*) @ML|
tii?|ii? UL?|hit |@| hiULh_ U@?}it ? ThLTLh|L?t | |Lti U@?}it LUUh ?
UL?|hit ihi |ihi t _LM*i Th@U|Ui @?_ |i) t@**) 4T*) @? ?Uhi@ti ? |i
TihUi?|@}i Lu ht|@?t @?_ @ hi_U|L? ? |i t3i Lu @?4t| uL**Liht iU@ti Lu
|iti hi@tL?t i |@!i |i _@|@ UL4?} uhL4 |i `, | @ *L| Lu U@|L?
`i UL?t_ih |i uL**L?} hi*}Lt }hLTtG aitc ht|@?tc t*4tc __t4c
O?_t4c A@Lt4c L?uU@?t4c ?iti +i*}L?c @@t4c 5)?Uhi|U U*|tc @?4t|
hi*}L?tc L|ih hi*}L?t @?_ ?Lhi*}L?
Ai @?4t|t @hi uL**Liht Lu |h@_|L?@* hi*}L?t U Th@U|Ui 4@}U @?_ |i
i?ih@|L? Lu @ *@h}i ?4Mih Lu }L_t @? tTh|t Ai) ti 4@}U @t @? ?t|h4i?| |L
UL?|hL* |i Lh*_ W? tL4i UL?|hit |ihi i t|t L?*) L?i T@h|U*@h @?4t| U*|c @t
@h4@?_t4 ? 5Li| N?L? Lh #h_t4 ? N?|i_ k?}_L4 W? |Lti U@titc |t
TihUi?|@}i t ?U*_i_ ? L|ih hi*}L?t AihiuLhic @?4t| hi*}L?t @*@)t ?U*_i
4Lhi |@? L?i |)Ti Lu U*| 6?@**)c L|ih hi*}L?t ?U*_i t4@** UL**iU|it @t RM*@U!
UhU Lh RtTh|@* }hLTt

e Ai t|@|t|U@* |hi@|4i?| Lu _LM*i Th@U|Ui

W? tL4i T@h|U*@h UL?|hitc 4@?*) ? uhU@ @?_ w@|? 4ihU@c T@h| Lu |i TLT*@
|L? @hi @TT@hi?|*) uL**Liht Lu |L _gihi?| hi*}L?t Ai UL4M?@|L? ?L*it L?i
Lu |i *@h}i hi*}L?tc 4@?*) ht|@?c @?_ tL4i @?4t| Lh t)?Uhi|U U*|t Nt@**)c
@t Ai `Lh*_ ht|@? ,?U)U*LTi_@ _Litc |i) _L ?L| UL?t_ih |i @|LU|L? hi*
}L? @?_ |i) UL?| |iti TiLT*i @t ht|@?tc TLttM*) MiU@ti |i) @i hiUii_
|i M@T|t4 Lh MiU@ti |i) *i ? @ hi}L? | 4ttL?t OLiihc |t |hi@|4i?| t

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ht|@? @hi@t `i uL**L |iti t|_it @?_ i UL?t_ih |@| TiLT*i |@| uL**L |h@
_|L?@* hi*}L?t *!i @?4t| @?_ @hi UL?|i_ @t _LM*i Th@U|ti @hi ?L| ht|@?t
Ai hi@tL? |@| i T*@?t |i |hi@|4i?| Lu |iti U@tit t |@|c @t _i€?i_ @MLic |i
@?4t| hi*}L? t@**) _i?|€it @ UL**iU||) W? T@h| Lu |i *|ih@|hi |t !?_ Lu
hi*}L? t _i€?i_ @t |i |)TU@* U*| Lu Th4|i **@}it A@!?} |t _i€?|L? @t
|i TL?| Lu hiuihi?Uic @| 4@||iht t |i i t|i?Ui Lu |iti }hLTtc ii? u |i) @hi
UL?|i_ @t uL**Liht Lu |i h|it Lu *@h}i hi*}L?t ?_ |t |hi@|4i?| t UL?tt|i?|
| `*tL? Eb.2
`i? |i _LM*i Th@U|Ui ?L*it @ *@h}i hi*}L? @?_ @ 5)?Uhi|U U*|c |i |hi@|
4i?| t |i t@4i @t ? |i U@ti Lu |i @?4t| LhiLihc @ t)?Uhi|U U*| t |i L?i
|@| 4 it h|it @?_ Mi*iut Lu _gihi?| hi*}L?t AihiuLhic tL4iL?i L Mi*iit ?
L?i *@h}i hi*}L? @?_ @ 5)?Uhi|U U*| t tL4iL?i L Mi*L?}t |L @?L|ih t)?Uhi|U
U*| 5i L?*) ?Uhi@tit |i ?4Mih Lu h|it ? t U*|
Ai Lh}?@* _@|@ @hi Thiti?|i_ @t |i ThLTLh|L?t Lu @ T@h|U*@h hi*}L? | hi
tTiU| |L |L|@* TLT*@|L? 5?Ui @| i @hi |h)?} |L U@T|hi t hi*}Lt ?|ih@U|L?c
| t hi@tL?@M*i ?L| |L |hi@| |i ?Lhi*}L? }hLT @t @?L|ih hi*}L? MiU@ti |i L?*)
|?}t |@| TiLT*i ? |t }hLT @i ? UL44L? t |i u@U| |@| |i) _L ?L| Mi*L?} |L
@?) hi*}Lt }hLTt AihiuLhic |ihi @hi ?L| tTiU€U UL44L? ?|ihit|t |@| Tih4|
t |L _i?|u) |i4 @t @ UL**iU|i Lh |@| _t|?}tit |i4 uhL4 |i ?|ihit| Lu @**
|i L|ih }hLTt At 4i@?t |@|c uhL4 @ TL*|U@* TL?| Lu ic |ihi t ?L UL44L?
TL?| Lu hiuihi?Ui |@| !iiTt |i4 |L}i|ih LhiLihc |i ?L?hi*}Lt }hLT _Lit
?L| @i |i ?iUitt|) |L hi@h4 |t _i?||) MiU@tic @t @ }hLTc | @t ?L _i?||)
AihiuLhic i ?Lh4@*3i |i _@|@ L? hi*}Lt }hLTt __?} i@U TihUi?|@}i M) |i
t4 Lu @** |i TihUi?|@}it Lu |i hi*}Lt }hLTt E|i TihUi?|@}i Lu Mi*iiht L|Ui
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jurxsv durxqg wkh zruog1 En la literatura sólo existe un tipo de índice que se ha aplicado a las diferencias
étnicas que es el índice de fragmentación de Taylor y Hudson (1972) referido
a la dimensión lingüística. De hecho muchos autores consideran este índice como el
único
medida de la diversidad étnica. Básicamente, este indicador puede interpretarse
2b como una medida de la probabilidad de que dos individuos seleccionados
aleatoriamente en un país pertenezcan a diferentes grupos etnolingüísticos.
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 Consideramos el índice de polarización religiosa como el indicador apropiado
para medir las tensiones religiosas. Nuestro índice, como el propuesto por
Esteban y Ray (1994), señala que la situación que lleva al punto de máxima
tensión es cuando existen dos grupos religiosos del mismo tamaño. Este tipo de
medidas difieren del índice de fragmentación porque el índice de polarización
captura qué tan lejos está la distribución de los grupos de una distribución
bimodal, mientras que el índice de fragmentación aumenta monótonamente con
la diversidad.

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POOLED REGRESSIONS USING BARRO (1991) SET OF EXPLANANTORY VARIABLES
Dependent variable:log difference GDP per capita, five years period from 1960 to 1989.
Model 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
Const 0.52 0.67 0.74 0.67 0.61 0.78 0.83 0.72
(6.77) (7.18) (7.41) (7.11) (6.89) (7.50) (7.71) (6.74)
Inv 0.556 0.48 0.47 0.50 0.55 0.46 0.45 0.58
(5.35) (4.43) (4.30) (4.53) (2.28) (4.15) (4.02) (5.70)
L(int.gdp) -0.06 -0.06 -0.07 -0.07 -0.07 -0.08 -0.08 -0.08
(-5.48) (-5.84) (-6.01) (-6.05) (-6.04) (-6.46) (-6.62) (-6.60)
Sec 0.13 0.12 0.13 0.13 0.14 0.13 0.13 0.13
(2.49) (2.33) (2.41) (2.46) (2.64) (2.44) (2.47) (2.44)
Pri 0.05 0.06 0.06 -0.08 0.06 0.06 0.06 0.01
(1.45) (1.56) (1.48) (1.83) (1.72) (1.46) (1.38) (0.21)
Gov -0.53 -0.48 -0.49 -0.66 -0.59 -0.57 -0.56 -0.44
(-4.66) (-3.86) (-4.03) (-5.39) (-5.14) (-4.54) (-4.52) (-3.83)
Rev 0.41 0.41 0.42 0.42 0.41 0.41 -0.41 0.41
(3.05) (2.99) (3.11) (3.11) (3.03) (3.01) (-3.04) (3.03)
Ass -0.61 -0.60 -0.62 -0.63 -0.61 -0.61 -0.62 -0.62
(-3.14) (-3.08) (-3.20) (-3.19) (-3.12) (-3.11) (-3.15) (-3.15)
Coup 0.04 0.06 0.06 -0.01 -0.01 -0.02 -0.01 -0.01
(0.56) (0.87) (0.87) (-0.9) (-0.97) (-0.99) (-1.05) (-0.90)
Pish -0.02 -0.03 -0.03 -0.02 -0.01 -0.03 -0.03 -0.01
(-1.00) (-1.54) (-1.47) (-0.96) (-0.78) (-1.40) (-1.45) (-0.33)
Ppdev -0.05 -0.03 -0.03 -0.00 -0.01 0.01 0.01 -0.01
(-2.24) (-1.41) (-1.51) (-0.02) (-0.19) (0.42) (0.44) (-0.56)
Laam -0.45 -0.04 -0.04 0.06 -0.06 -0.05 -0.05 -0.05
(-2.57) (-1.97) (-2.08) (-2.88) (-3.09) (-2.53) (-2.58) (-2.28)
Asiae 0.08 0.08 0.10 0.08 0.09 0.09 0.10 0.11
(3.27) (2.43) (2.94) (2.33) (3.37) (2.59) (2.86) (3.96)
safrica -0.04
(-1.78)
IRC1 -0.09 -0.07
(-2.89) (-2.43)
IRC2 -0.33 -0.16
(-3.43) (-2.98)
AD -0.17 -0.15 -0.16 -0.16 -0.15
(-3.44) (-3.23) (-3.16) (-3.15) (-2.14)
Lpop -0.00 -0.00 -0.00 -0.00 -0.00
(-0.03) (-0.46) (-0.16) (-0.17) (-0.88)
R2 0.2525 0.2741 0.2791 0.2767 0.2659 0.2853 0.2896 0.2629

N 515 515 515 511 511 511 511 511

Set of explanatory variables Barro (1991)
Dummies for each religion have been used in order to isolate the effect of polarization, except for regression 4, in which just the dummy
for the animist religion has been used.
Numbers in parentheses are t-statistics.
Inv: Average of the ration of real domestic investment for the period (private plus public) to real GDP.
L(int.gdp): Real GDP per capita of the initial period (1985 international prices)
Sec: Percentage of secondary school attained in the total population. Taken at the beginning of the period
Pri: Percentage of ``Primary school attained'' in the total population. Taken at the beginning of the period.
Gov: Average period of the Ratio of real government ``consumption''expenditure net of spending on defense and on education to real
GDP.
Rev: Number of revolutions per year, averaged over the period (Banks). Ass: number of assassassination per milion population per year,
average period. Coups: number of coups per year, average period.
Pish: Price level of investment (PPP I / Xrate relative to U.S.) at the begining of the period. (U.S=1.0).
ppdev: Magnitude of the deviation of Pish560 from the sample mean.
Laam: Dummy for Latin-American countries. Asiae: Dummy for East-Asian countries.Safrica: Dummy variable for Sub Saharan
countries. lpop: log of the population al the begining of the period
IRC1: religious polarization index
IRC2: religious polarization using the application of Esteban and Ray polarization index
AD: Animist diversity index
 TABLE 2:
DECOMPOSITION EFFECT
OECD SAFRICA LAAM ASIAE
Growthmean 0.1417 0.039 0.0622 0.1079
Diff growth 0 -0.102 -0.08 0.046
IRC1 Mean 0.0787 0.7047 0.4278 0.5064
Diff IRC1 0 0.626 0.3491 0.4278
AD Mean 0.0003 0.2198 0.0047 0.0734
Diff AD 0 0.2196 0.0044 0.0732
Elf mean 0.2187 0.6513 0.2657 0.46222
Diff Elf 0 0.4326 0.046 0.2435

Effect IRC1 0 -0.05 -0.028 -0.034

Effect AD 0 -0.056 -0.001 -0.018
Effect Inv 0 -0.0870 -0.06 -0.034
Effect elf 0 -0.00865 -0.00092 -0.0048

OXACA DECOMPOSITION
OECD SAFRICA LAAM ASIAE
IRC1 Effect1 0 -0.199 0.0073 0.3108
Effect2 0 -0.0427 -0.0159 0.039
AD Effect1 0 -0.018 -0.0033 -0.058
Effect2 0 -0.00025 -0.00042 -0.00043
Investment Effect1 0 -0.0957 -0.075 -0.0458
Effect2 0 0.045 0.056 0.629
ELF Effect1 0 0.00978 -0.0021 -0.0207
Effect2 0 -0.0083 -0.01 0.0102
All differences respect the OECD mean, that is (mean of variable I in region j) - (mean of variable I in oecd).
The effect in the first decomposition comes from the product between the coefficient of variable I in regression
in table 1, mutiplied by the difference just describes above. We decompose the effect for variable IRC1, AD,
investment as a matter of comparison, and ELF.
In the OXACA decomposition, we run regression for each region, obtaining a different Beta coefficient of the
variable of interest in each region. Effect 1 correspond to differnces in the mean weighted by the coefficient of the
Variable obtained in the regressions using just the region sample. And effect two corresponds to the coefficient
effect, measured as the difference in coefficients, weighted by the mean of the variable in the corresponding region.
Inv: Average of the ration of real domestic investment for the period (private plus public) to real GDP.
Safrica: Dummy for Sub-Saharan African countries.; Laam: Dummy for Latin-American countries.
Asiae: Dummy for East-Asian countries.
IRC1: religious polarization index
IRC2: religious polarization using the application of Esteban and Ray polarization index
AD: animist diversity index
ELF: ethnolinguistic fragmentation index.
 TABLE 3
RANKING OF THE MOST POLARIZED, MOST ANIMIST DIVERS, AND MOST
LINGUISTICALLY FRAGMENTED COUNTRIES
MOST POLARIZED MOST ANIMIST DIV LEAST POLARIZED MOST LING.
IRC1 AD IRC1 FRAGMENTED ELF
Dom.repu 0.999 Zaire 0.77 Oman 0.029 Tanzania 0.93
Zaire 0.993 Nigeria 0.7615 Luxemburg 0.029 Zaire 0.9
Burundi 0.987 Kenya 0.508 Afganistan 0.027 Uganda 0.9
Madagascar 0.972 Mozambique 0.47 Iceland 0.026 Cameroon 0.89
Leshoto 0.96 Indonesia 0.46 Turkey 0.022 India 0.89
Zimbawe 0.958 Ethiopia 0.36 Sweden 0.018 South Africa 0.88
Bolivia 0.957 South Africa 0.28 Denmark 0.014 Nigeria 0.87
Fiji 0.928 Madagascar 0.249 Italy 0.009 Coted’ivoire 0.86
Sierra Leone 0.924 Tanzania 0.23 Comoros 0.008 Liberia 0.83
Taiwan 0.919 Ghana 0.214 Dominica 0.008 Chad 0.83
Burkina Faso 0.918 Cameroon 0.206 Finland 0.006 Kenya 0.83
Guinea Bissau 0.914 Sudan 0.20 Norway 0.006 Zambia 0.82
Ethiopia 0.906 Burkina Faso 0.20 Somalia 0.005 Mali 0.78
Angola 0.906 Uganda 0.19 Ireland 0.005 Angola 0.78
Cent. Afr. Rep 0.901 Cote d’Ivoire 0.167 Cape Verde 0.004 Sierra Leone 0.77
The Fifteen most polarized countries, the most animist divers, and the most linguistic fragmented following the index IRC1, AD and
ELF. And the fifteen least polarized .

TABLE 4:
ANALYSIS OF ROBUSTNESS USING DIFFERENT SET OF EXPLANATORY VARIABLES, INDEX
AND DATABASE.
USING ESTEBAN AND
CONFLICT INDEX RAY INDEX
Variables Sample
IRC1 AD R2 IRC2 R2 Specif. N
Pool Data -0.09 0.2741 -0.33 0.2791 Barro Barrolee
(-2.89) (-3.43) N=515
WC -0.4 0.2639 -0.15 0.2658 Barro Barrolee
(-1.33) (-1.75) N=514
Data -0.13 0.2168 -0.42 0.2210 Lev&Ren. Barrolee
(-3.81) (-4.13) N=485
WC -0.09 0.2107 -0.22 0.2063 Lev&Ren. Barrolee
(-2.77) (-2.25) N=481
Pool Data -0.17 0.2767 Barro Barrolee
(-3.44) N=511
WC -0.21 0.2728 Barro Barrolee
(-3.14) N=509
Data -0.29 0.2085 Lev&Ren. Barrolee
(-4.03) N=481
WC -0.30 0.2058 Lev&Ren. Barrolee
(-4.03) N=481

Data means that the results are obtained by using the data set proposed in this paper. An dWC means that the results are obtained using
the WC Encyclopedia dataset. Barro means that the results are obtained using Barro (1991) set of explanatory variables. Lev&Ren means
that the results are obtained using Levine and Renelt (1992) set of explanatory variables. Numbers in parentheses are t-statistics.
IRC1: religious polarization index; IRC2: religious polarization using the application of Esteban and Ray polarization index
AD: animist diversity index
 TABLE 5:
ANALYSIS OF ROBUSTNESS USING THE RANDOM EFFECTS ESTIMATION PROCEDURE
ESTEBAN AND RAY
CONFLICT INDEX INDEX
Variables Sample
IRC1 AD R2 IRC2 R2 Specif. N
RE Data -0.09 0.2733 -0.35 0.2785 Barro Barrolee
(-2.86) (-3.39) N=515
WC -0.04 0.2627 -0.16 0.2646 Barro Barrolee
(-1.28) (-1.66) N=514
Data -0.129 0.2168 -0.42 0.2210 Lev&Ren. Barrolee
(-3.79) (-4.13) N=485
WC -0.09 0.2080 -0.21 0.2033 Lev&Ren. Barrolee
(-2.66) (-2.09) N=481
RE Data -0.24 0.2765 Barro Barrolee
(-3.43) N=511
WC -0.25 0.2785 Barro Barrolee
(-2.93) N=509
Data -0.39 0.2119 Lev&Ren. Barrolee
(-4.27) N=481
WC -0.38 0.2116 Lev&Ren. Barrolee
(-4.44) N=481
RE Data -0.08 -0.25 0.2979 Barro Barrolee
(-2.53) (-3.27) N=511
Data -0.25 -0.31 0.3032 Barro Barrolee
(-3.37) (-3.15) N=511
WC -0.03 -0.24 0.2803 Barro Barrolee
(-0.86) (-2.67) N=508
WC -0.25 -0.15 0.2832 Barro Barrolee
(-2.77) (-1.54) N=508
Data means that the results are obtained by using the data set proposed in this paper. An dWC means that the results are obtained using
the WC Encyclopedia dataset. Barro means that the results are obtained using Barro (1991) set of explanatory variables. Lev&Ren means
that the results are obtained using Levine and Renelt (1992) set of explanatory variables. Numbers in parentheses are t-statistics.
IRC1: religious polarization index; IRC2: religious polarization using the application of Esteban and Ray polarization index
AD: animist diversity index
 TABLE 6
DIRECT AND INDIRECT EFFECTS USING 3SLS ESTIMATION
Dependent variable:log difference GDP per capita, five years period from 1960 to 1989
Equations GROWTH Investment Gov.exp Civil war
Const 0.71 -0.16 0.28 -0.54
(5.62) (-2.86) (5.69) (-2.09)
Inv 0.56
(3.97)
Ln(Int.gdp) -0.07 0.05 -0.01 0.04
(-5.26) (9.62) (-1.26) (1.33)
Sec 0.11 0.03
(1.83) (1.05)
Pri 0.06
(1.26)
Hum -0.02
(-2.21)
Gov -0.59 0.01
(-4.08) (0.19)
Rev 0.39 0.17 -0.02
(2.53) (2.42) (-0.28)
Ass -0.60 -0.25 0.02
(-2.61) (-2.36) (0.21)
Coup 0.01 -0.02 0.02
(0.25) (-2.34) (2.01)
Civwar 0.04
(-2.32)
Pish -0.03
(-1.49)
Ppdev -0.01
(-0.44)
Ex -0.68
(-1.58)
Ex2 0.91
(1.02)
Laam -0.04
(-1.63)
Asiae 0.13
(2.52)
IRC1 -0.03 -0.06 0.05 0.16
(-0.80) (-3.27) (3.25) (2.55)
AD -0.24 -0.03 0.03 0.66
(-2.77) (-0.94) (0.99) (4.94)
Lpop 0.00 0.00 -0.01
(0.32) (0.31) (-4.55)
Demo 0.01
(1.53)
R-squared 0.3826 5453 0.3281 0.3268
Dummies for each religion have been used in order to isolate the effect of polarization,
Numbers in parentheses are Z-statistics.
Laam: Dummy for Latin-American countries.
Asiae: Dummy for East-Asian countries.
gpop: average annual rate of population growth per period
lpop: log of the population al the begining of the period
hum: Average schooling years in the total population over age 25 of the initial period.
ex: Ratio of exports to GDP(in current international prices). Average period.
Ex2: square of ex.
Demo: Democracy score: general openess of the political institutions
civwar: Dummy variable which take value one if a civil war broke out and zero if the country did not expperienec a civil war.
IRC1: religious polarization index
AD: animist diversity index
 TABLE 7A
POOLED AND RANDOM EFFECTS ESTIMATION USING THE
RELIGIOUS FRGAMENTATION VARIABLE , RF
Dependent variable:log difference GDP per capita, five years period from 1960 to
1989.
Model 1 Pool 2 Pool 3 Pool 4 RE 5 RE 6 RE
Const 0.58 0.58 0.65 0.83 0.84 0.65
(5.65) (5.67) (6.88) (6.57) (6.60) (6.88)
Inv 0.42 0.44 0.48 0.49 0.50 0.48
(3.06) (3.23) (4.32) (3.23) (3.30) (4.32)
L(int.gdp) -0.52 -0.05 -0.06 -0.08 -0.08 -0.06
(-3.83) (-3.99) (-5.37) (-4.85) (-4.96) (-5.37)
Sec 0.09 0.09 0.10 0.06 0.07 0.10
(1.53) (1.54) (1.88) (1.03) (1.04) (1.88)
Pri 0.023 0.025 0.07 0.13 0.01 0.07
(0.40) (0.55) (1.68) (0.24) (0.26) (1.68)
Gov -0.57 -0.58 -0.81 -0.72 -0.72 -0.81
(-4.12) (-4.19) (-6.10) (-4.35) (-4.37) (-6.10)
Rev 0.42 0.41 0.41 0.42 0.43 0.41
(3.14) (3.10) (3.22) (3.06) (3.05) (3.22)
Ass -0.63 -0.62 -0.61 -0.64 -0.63 -0.61
(-3.24) (-3.21) (-3.32) (-3.14) (-3.14) (-3.32)
Coup -0.04 -0.03 -0.00 -0.56 -0.06 -0.00
(-0.50) (-0.46) (-0.29) (-0.72) (-0.72) (-0.29)
Pish -0.035 -0.03 -0.01 -0.05 -0.05 -0.01
(-1.42) (-1.38) (-0.11) (-1.64) (-1.62) (-0.11)
Ppdev -0.02 -0.02 -0.01 -0.02 -0.02 -0.01
(-0.74) (-0.78) (-0.45) (-0.52) (-0.54) (-0.45)
Laam -0.06 -0.06 -0.07 -0.07 -0.07 -0.07
(-2.57) (-2.54) (-3.56) (-2.48) (-2.50) (-3.56)
Asiae -0.005 -0.00 0.08 -0.01 -0.01 0.08
(-0.08) (-0.06) (2.19) (-0.19) (-0.18) (2.19)
Rf -0.07 -0.05 -0.05 -0.05
(-1.72) (-0.62) (-0.95) (-0.62)
Rf2 -0.09 -0.08
(-1.67) (-1.04)
AD -0.10 -0.10
(-2.20) (-2.20)
Lpop -0.00 -0.00
(-0.60) (-0.60)
R2 0.3426 0.3422 0.3203 0.3318 0.3315 0.3203
N 363 363 363 363 363 363
Set of explanatory variables Barro (1991)
Dummies for each religion have been used in order to isolate the effect of fragmentation.
Numbers in parentheses are t-statistics.
Inv: Average of the ration of real domestic investment for the period (private plus public) to real GDP.
L(int.gdp): Real GDP per capita of the initial period (1985 international prices)
Sec: Percentage of secondary school attained in the total population. Taken at the beginning of the period
Pri: Percentage of ``Primary school attained'' in the total population. Taken at the beginning of the period.
Gov: Average period of the Ratio of real government ``consumption''expenditure net of spending on defense
and on education the real GDP.
Rev: Number of revolutions per year, averaged over the period (Banks).
Ass: number of assassassination per milion population per year, average period.
Coups: number of coups per year, average period.
Pish: Price level of investment (PPP I / Xrate relative to U.S.) at the begining of the period. (U.S=1.0).
ppdev: Magnitude of the deviation of Pish560 from the sample mean.
Laam: Dummy for Latin-American countries.
Asiae: Dummy for East-Asian countries.
lpop: log of the population al the begining of the period
AD: animist diversity index
Rf: religiuos fragmentation index used in the paper``Justice-Seeking and Loot-Seeking in Civil War''.
Rf2: square of religious fragmentation
 TABLE 7B
DIRECT AND INDIRECT EFFECTS USING 3SLS ESTIMATION
Dependent variable:log difference GDP per capita, five years period from 1960 to 1989
Equations GROWTH Investment Gov.exp Civil war
Const 0.61 -0.28 0.38 -0.05
(5.03) (-6.00) (9.62) (-0.16)
Inv 0.45
(2.89)
Ln(Int.gdp) -0.06 0.06 -0.02 -0.04
(-4.36) (12.80) (-3.76) (-0.88)
Sec 0.08 0.02
(1.26) (0.61)
Pri 0.07
(1.30)
Hum -0.03
(-2.18)
Gov -0.62 -0.03
(.3.75) (-0.46)
Rev 0.41 0.13 -0.00
(2.71) (1.83) (-0.09)
Ass -0.62 -0.17 -0.00
(-2.78) (-1.70) (-0.05)
Coup -0.012 -0.02 0.03
(-0.52) (-2.00) (2.62)
Civwar -0.04
(-2.36)
Pish -0.012
(-0.48)
Ppdev 0.01
(0.26)
Ex -0.65
(-1.45)
Ex2 1.15
(1.05)
Laam -00.07 -0.01
(-2.58) (-0.17)
Asiae 0.10 0.41
(1.86) (3.09)
rf -0.05 -0.02 0.06 -0.15
(-1.05) (-1.02) (3.84) (-1.20)
AD -0.17 0.05 -0.02 0.30
(-2.73) (1.96) (-1.04) (2.13)
Lpop 0.06 0.00 0.01 0.04
(0.88) (0.35) (-4.68) (2.55)
Demo 0.01
(1.48)
R-squared 0.3784 0.6028 0.3583 0.2184
Dummies for each religion have been used in order to isolate the effect of polarization,
Numbers in parentheses are Z-statistics.
Laam: Dummy for Latin-American countries.
Asiae: Dummy for East-Asian countries.
gpop: average annual rate of population growth per period
lpop: log of the population al the begining of the period
hum: Average schooling years in the total population over age 25 of the initial period.
ex: Ratio of exports to GDP(in current international prices). Average period.
Ex2: square of ex.
Demo: Democracy score: general openess of the political institutions
civwar: Dummy variable which take value one if a civil war broke out and zero if the country did not expperienec a civil war.
AD: animist diversity index
Rf: religiuos fragmentation index used in the paper``Justice-Seeking and Loot-Seeking in Civil War''
 TABLE 7C
DIRECT AND INDIRECT EFFECT USING 3 SLS ESTIMATION
Dependent variable:log difference GDP per capita, five years period from 1960 to 1989
Equations GROWTH Investment Gov.exp. Civil war
Const 0.69 -0.11 0.28 -0.59
(5.22) (-1.96) (5.68) (-2.00)
Inv 0.36
(2.40)
Ln(Int.gdp) -0.06 0.05 -0.01 0.03
(-4.25) (8.13) (-1.36) (1.01)
Sec 0.06 0.01
(1.01) (0.5)
Pri 0.07
(1.37)
Hum -0.04
(-2.95)
Gov -0.75 -0.02
(-4.59) (-0.27)
Rev 0.56 0.08 -0.02
(3.78) (1.20) (-0.31)
Ass -0.84 -0.11 0.02
(-3.88) (-1.12) (0.21)
Coup 0.00 -0.02 0.02
(0.06) (-1.58) (2.42)
Civwar -0.07
(-2.36)
Pish -0.03
(-1.37)
Ppdev -0.01
(-0.24)
Ex -1.34
(-1.86)
Ex2 2.38
(1.40)
Laam -0.07
(-2.10)
Asiae 0.06
(1.13)
IRC1 -0.03 -0.08 0.03 0.51
_(-0.55) (-4.44) (2.00) (5.11)
AD -0.29 0.05 0.00 0.81
(-3.16) _(1.34) (0.1) (4.92)
Lpop 0.00 0.00 -0.01 0.01
(0.64) (0.17) (-4.66) (0.46)
Rf -0.00 0.00 0.00 -0.01
(-0.40) (1.36) (1.89) (-1.85)
Demo -0.01
(-1.68)
R-squared 0.3963 0.6081 0.3437 0.3572
Dummies for each religion have been used in order to isolate the effect of polarization,
Numbers in parentheses are Z-statistics.
Inv: Average of the ration of real domestic investment for the period (private plus public) to real GDP.
L(int.gdp): Real GDP per capita of the initial period (1985 international prices)
Sec: Percentage of secondary school attained in the total population. Taken at the beginning of the period
Pri: Percentage of ``Primary school attained'' in the total population. Taken at the beginning of the period.
Gov: Average period of the Ratio of real government ``consumption''expenditure net of spending on defense and on education to
real GDP.
Rev: Number of revolutions per year, averaged over the period (Banks). Ass=number of assassassination per milion population per year,
average period. Coups: number of coups per year, average period.
Pish: Price level of investment (PPP I / Xrate relative to U.S.) at the begining of the period. (U.S=1.0).
ppdev: Magnitude of the deviation of Pish560 from the sample mean.
IRC1: religious polarization index. AD: animist diversity index. Rf: religiuos fragmentation index used in the paper``Justice-Seeking and
Loot-Seeking in Civil War''
 TABLE 8A
DIRECT AND INDIRECT EFFECTS USING 3SLS ESTIMATION
Dependent variable:log difference GDP per capita, five years period from 1960 to 1989
Equations GROWTH Investment Gov.exp Civil war
Const 0.70 -0.23 0.34 -0.22
(5.92) (-4.83) (8.13) (-0.76)
Inv 0.57
(3.98)
Ln(Int.gdp) -0.069 0.06 -0.01 -0.00
(-4.77) (12.47) (-2.29) (-0.06)
Sec 0.08 0.01
(1.26) (0.58)
Pri 0.04
(0.78)
Hum -0.04
(-2.65)
Gov -0.61 -0.06
(-4.30) (-0.09)
Rev 0.35 0.100 0.02
(2.26) (1.38) (0.34)
Ass -0.53 -0.13 -0.04
(-2.33) (-1.27) (-0.45)
Coup -0.00 -0.02 0.02
(-0.07) (-2.43) 0.02
(2.58)
Civwar -0.05
(-2.26)
Pish -0.03
(-1.33)
Ppdev -0.01
(-0.43)
Ex -0.58
(-1.30)
Ex2 0.32
(1.73)
Laam -0.07 0.07
(-2.30) (1.40)
Asiae 0.11 0.35
(2.11) (3.01)
ELF -0.05 -0.03 0.03 0.14
(-1.60) (-1.95) (2.26) (1.88)
AD -0.15 0.01 -0.01 0.35
(-2.50) (0.46) (-0.26) (2.85)
Lpop -0.00 -0.00 -0.01 0.02
(-0.02) (-0.45) (-4.07) (1.33)
Demo 0.01
(1.76)
R-squared 0.3936 0.5531 0.3148 0.2186
Dummies for each religion have been used in order to isolate the effect of polarization,
Numbers in parentheses are Z-statistics.
Laam: Dummy for Latin-American countries.
Asiae: Dummy for East-Asian countries.
gpop: average annual rate of population growth per period
lpop: log of the population al the begining of the period
hum: Average schooling years in the total population over age 25 of the initial period.
ex: Ratio of exports to GDP(in current international prices). Average period.
Ex2: square of ex.
Demo: Democracy score: general openess of the political institutions
civwar: Dummy variable which take value one if a civil war broke out and zero if the country did not expperienec a civil war.
AD: Animist diversity index. ELF: ethnolinguistic fragmentation index
 TABLE 8B
DIRECT AND INDIRECT EFFECT USING 3 SLS ESTIMATION
Dependent variable:log difference GDP per capita, five years period from 1960 to 1989
Equations GROWTH Investment Gov.exp. Civil war
Const 0.72 -0.14 0.28 -0.38
(6.44) (-2.81) (6.48) (-1.42)
Inv 0.58
(4.79)
Ln(Int.gdp) -0.07 0.05 -0.01 0.03
(-5.29) (9.41) (-1.86) (0.84)
Sec 0.07 0.04
(1.22) (1.65)
Pri 0.006
(0.150)
Hum -0.02
(-1.77)
Gov -0.65 0.02
(-4.85) (0.43)
Rev 0.18 0.15 0.036
(1.33) (2.27) (0.65)
Ass -0.27 -0.20 -0.06
(-1.41) (-2.19) (-0.78)
Coup -0.06 -0.06
(-0.87) (-2.11)
Civwar -0.07
(-3.05)
Pish -0.03
(-1.31)
Ppdev -0.006
(-0.23)
Ex -0.78
(-1.76)
Ex2 1.16
(1.58)
Laam -0.05
(-2.51)
Asiae 0.08
(2.12)
IRC1 -0.004 -0.05 0.04 0.23
(-0.11) (-2.86) (2.69) (3.01)
AD -0.25 0.007 0.04 0.69
(-2.86) (0.181) (1.16) (3.67)
Lpop 0.004 -0.002 -0.01 0.02
(0.71) (-0.84) (-3.83) (1.52)
ELF -0.06 -0.00 0.02 -0.09
(-1.74) (-0.06) (1.64) (-1.25)
Demo 0.007
(1.42)
R-squared 0.3883 0.4984 0.2879 0.1518
Dummies for each religion have been used in order to isolate the effect of polarization,
Numbers in parentheses are Z-statistics.
Inv: Average of the ration of real domestic investment for the period (private plus public) to real GDP.
L(int.gdp): Real GDP per capita of the initial period (1985 international prices)
Sec: Percentage of secondary school attained in the total population. Taken at the beginning of the period
Pri: Percentage of ``Primary school attained'' in the total population. Taken at the beginning of the period.
Gov: Average period of the Ratio of real government ``consumption''expenditure net of spending on defense and on education to
real GDP.
Rev: Number of revolutions per year, averaged over the period (Banks).
Ass=number of assassassination per milion population per year, average period.
Coups: number of coups per year, average period.
Pish: Price level of investment (PPP I / Xrate relative to U.S.) at the begining of the period. (U.S=1.0).
ppdev: Magnitude of the deviation of Pish560 from the sample mean.
IRC1: religious polarization index
AD: Animist diversity index
ELF: ethnolinguistic fragmentation index