9/8/23, 12:43 AM Hurricane Lee rapidly strengthens to Category 5 storm as it approaches the Caribbean | CNN

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Hurricane Lee rapidly strengthens to Category 5 storm as it

approaches the Caribbean
By Mary Gilbert, CNN Meteorologist
Updated 11:46 PM EDT, Thu September 7, 2023

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CNN meteorologist breaks down Hurricane Lee's possible trajectory

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9/8/23, 12:43 AM Hurricane Lee rapidly strengthens to Category 5 storm as it approaches the Caribbean | CNN

(CNN) — Hurricane Lee has strengthened into a major Category 5 storm, packing maximum
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sustained wind speeds of 160 mph as it spins over the Atlantic well east of the Caribbean,
the National Hurricane Center said in an 11 p.m. ET advisory Thursday.

Lee, which was a Category 1 storm earlier Thursday, has been intensifying with exceptional
speed in the warm waters of the Atlantic Ocean, doubling its wind speeds in the last 24
hours.

The hurricane was located about 700 miles east of the northern Leeward Islands, the
hurricane center said in the 11 p.m. advisory.

The storm will likely reach its peak intensity by this weekend and is still expected to be a
dangerous hurricane over the southwestern Atlantic early next week, though it’s too soon
to know whether this system will directly impact the US mainland.

Dangerous surf and rip currents will spread across the northern Caribbean on Friday and
begin affecting the United States on Sunday, the center said.

Tracking LEE
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Category
Projected path
Traveled path

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9/8/23, 12:43 AM Hurricane Lee rapidly strengthens to Category 5 storm as it approaches the Caribbean | CNN

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There is increasing confidence that the center of Lee will pass to the north of the Leeward
Islands, the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico this weekend and into early next week. Tropical
storm conditions, life-threatening surf and rip currents could occur on some of these
islands over the weekend.

Also Thursday, a tropical depression in the eastern Atlantic strengthened into Tropical
Storm Margot, just a few hundred miles west of the Cabo Verde Islands, the center said.
Margot currently has winds of 40 mph and steady strengthening is expected – the center is
forecasting Margot to become a hurricane over the weekend. The forecast track shows the
storm turning to the north over the central Atlantic early next week, but it is not expected to
threaten any land areas as of Thursday.

Computer model trends for Lee have shown the hurricane taking a turn to the north early
next week. But exactly when that turn occurs and how far west Lee will manage to track by
then will play a huge role in how close it gets to the US.

Here’s what will steer the storm and two potential scenarios meteorologists are watching
for how the US threat could play out.

How close will Hurricane Lee get to the US?

Several steering factors at the surface and upper levels of the atmosphere will determine
how close Lee will get to the East Coast.

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9/8/23, 12:43 AM Hurricane Lee rapidly strengthens to Category 5 storm as it approaches the Caribbean | CNN

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Lee's potential track next week will be determined by multiple atmospheric factors including a strong area of high pressure to its
east (yellow circle) and the jet stream (silver arrows) to its west.

An area of high pressure over the Atlantic, known as the Bermuda High, will have a major
influence in how quickly Lee turns. The Bermuda High is expected to remain very strong
into the weekend, which will keep Lee on its current west-northwestward track and slow it
down a bit.

As the high pressure weakens next week it will allow Lee to start moving northward.

Once that turn to the north occurs, the position of the jet stream – strong upper-level winds
that can change the direction of a hurricane’s path – will influence how closely Lee is
steered to the US.

Scenario: Out to Sea

Lee could make a quick turn to the north early next week if high pressure weakens
significantly.

If the jet stream sets up along the East Coast, it will act as a barrier that prevents Lee from
approaching the coast. This scenario would keep Lee farther away from the US coast but
could bring the storm closer to Bermuda.

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9/8/23, 12:43 AM Hurricane Lee rapidly strengthens to Category 5 storm as it approaches the Caribbean | CNN

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Track Scenario: An area of high pressure (yellow circle) to the east of Lee and the jet stream (silver arrows) to the west of Lee,
can force the storm to track between the two, away from the US coast.

Scenario: Close to East Coast

Lee could make a slower turn to the north because the high pressure remains robust, and
the jet stream sets up farther inland over the Eastern US. This scenario would leave
portions of the East Coast, mainly north of the Carolinas, vulnerable to a much closer
approach from Lee.

T kS i A f hi h ( ll i l ) t th t fL d th j t t ( il ) t th t fL
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9/8/23, 12:43 AM Hurricane Lee rapidly strengthens to Category 5 storm as it approaches the Caribbean | CNN
Track Scenario: An area of high pressure (yellow circle) to the east of Lee and the jet stream (silver arrows) to the west of Lee,
can force the storm to track between the two, closer to the US coast.
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All these factors have yet to come into focus, and the hurricane is still at least seven days
from being a threat to the East Coast. Any potential US impact will become more clear as
the Lee moves west in the coming days.

CNN’s Robert Shackelford, Monica Garrett and Nouran Salahieh contributed to this report.

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9/8/23, 12:43 AM Hurricane Lee rapidly strengthens to Category 5 storm as it approaches the Caribbean | CNN
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9/8/23, 12:43 AM Hurricane Lee rapidly strengthens to Category 5 storm as it approaches the Caribbean | CNN

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