8 x 3 UNITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

N O M FINANCE AND ADMINISTRATION
%TES of

August 18,2006

Ms. Melanie Sloan

Citizens for Responsibility and Ethics in Washington
11 DuPont Circle, N.W., 2ndFloor
Washington, DC 20036

Re: Freedom of Information Act Request No. 2006-00508

Review of Documents that Originated With NOAA

Dear Ms. Sloan:

This letter is in response to a Freedom of Information Act (FOIA) request received from
you by the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) for documents relating to Hurricane
, Katrina. In processing your request, DHS located 111 pages of documents responsive to your
request, which originated with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).
Therefore, DHS forwarded copies of those documents to us for review and direct response to
you.

We have reviewed the documents responsive to your request and have made a
determination to grant you full access to those records. Copies of the records are enclosed.

If you have any questions regarding the documents being released to you, please contact
me at (301) 713-3540, extension 209.

Sincerely,

ddraC& -~LP~
Jean E. Carter-Johnson
FOIA Officer
NOAA FOIA Staff
Department of Commerce

Enclosures

@ Printed on Recycled Paper

 /

NOAA Mississippi River Satuts:

Here 1 s t h e o f f ~ c l a ls t a t u s s t a t e m e n t on t h e X l s s l s s l p p i R l v e r s u r v a y :

NO.kn.'s O f f l c e o f C o a s t S u r v e y has corr.plete3 a d e t a i l e d s u r v e y o f t k e

f r r s t 2 0 miles o f t h e rnasn M ~ s s l s s l p p l2 l v e r z h a c n t i - n o r t h w a r d fzom

t h e Gulf of Mexrco t o Plloctown, LA. The n e x t 200 mrles - stretck~ng

f r o m P l l o t t o w n r o Baton Rouge has been p r e l i m i n a r r l y s u r v e y e d by t h e 3.3.

i
Coast G u a r d .

A t 8 : 3 0 a.m. CDT t h l s m r n l n g , Friday, S e p t e n b e r 2 , t n e U . S . C o a s t Guard

C a p t a i n o f t h e P c r t o f Mew O z l e a n s openzd t h e Mississippi R i v e : i r o n

Baton P.ouqe t o t h e Gulf of Mexico f o r vessels drawing no more zhan 35

feet i n draft. This i s 10 feet less than t h e normal c n a n n e l operational

draft o f 4 5 f e e t .

NO% w ~ l contLnua
l t o s u r v a y from F i l o t t o w n t o Baton Rouge e a r l y n e x t

week. A t t h e r e q u e s t o f t h e U.S. C o a s t Guard, NOAA w i l l be c o n d u c t ~ n g

.-

a n o b j e c t detection s u r v e y l o o k l n g f o r a n y u n d e r w a t e r o b s t r u c t i o n s i n

t h e c h a n n e l , A s N O W does chrs survey, ~t wrll alss be r e ~ n s r a l l ~ nt lqd e

gages and c o n d u c t i n g a h i g h l y p r e c i s e b a t h p e t r r c s u r v e y . I t is

antrcipated t h a t t h e p r e c i s e s u r v e y w i l l take a p p r o x i m a t e l y t w o w e e k s to
 Any of t h e above c a n be a c t r l b u z e a t o LCDK Doug B a i z d , C h i e f of

B y d r o g r a p h i c Survey Operazrons for NOAA's O f f ~ c eof Z o a s t Survey.

 Hurricane Katrina Update
9:00 PM Aug. 25
Katrina relentlessly pounding S FL
- Calm of the large eye experienced at the national
hurricane center
- The eye of Hurricane Katrina was located near latitude
25.8 north...Longitude 80.4 west.
- This position is just to the northwest of the National
Hurricane Center in Miami-Dade County
- Katrina is moving South of due West near 6 mph and
this general motion is expected to continue during the
next 24 hours
 Hurricane Katrina Update
9:00 PM Aug. 25
Maximum sustained winds are 80 mph...With higher
gusts.
- Gradual weakening is expected to continue as Katrina moves
inland
- Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 15 miles from the
center
- Topical storm force winds extend outward up to 80 miles
- Storm surge flooding of 2 to 4 feet above normal tide levels along
with large and dangerous battering waves can be expected near
and to the north of the landfall point
Due to its slow forward speed Katrina is expected to
produce a significant heavy rainfall event over S FL
- Total rainfall accumulations of 6-10"
- Isolated maximum amounts of 15"s are possible
 Hurricane Katrina Update
9:00 PM Aug. 25
Warnings and Advisories
- Hurricane warning remains in effect for the SE FL
coast from Jupiter Inlet S to Florida City including Lake
Okeechobee
- Tropical storm warning is also in effect along the Gulf
Coast of FL from Longboat Key S and E to S of
Florida City
- Tropical storm watch is in effect for portions the FL W
Coast from north of Longboat Key to Anclote Key and
for the east-central FI coast from north of Vero Beach
to Titusville including all of Merritt Island
. Satellite Infrared Picture
8:15 PM EDT Aug. 25
 Current Situation
Hurricane Katrina
Eye of Katrina currently making landfall between
Hallandale beach and North Miami Beach with
80 mph winds
Port Everglades reported gusts to 92 rnph
Katrina is moving toward the west near 6 mph
and this general motion is expected to continue
during the next 24 hours.
On this track the center should move farther
inland along S FL tonight and Friday
!
!
I
j
Current Situation
Hurricane Katrina
I
I
! Hurricane warning remains in effect for the
I SE FL coast from Jupiter inlet S to Florida
City... Including Lake Okeechobee
Tropical storm warning has been issued
for all of the FL Keys and FL Bay from Key
West northward.
Tropical storm warning is also in effect
along the gulf coast of FL from Longboat
Key S and E to S of FL City

02224
2
 -- -- -
I

I . Current Situation -----

Hurricane Katrina
Katrina is expected to produce a
significant heavy rainfall event over S FL
!
i
and the central and northwest Bahamas.
Total rainfall accumulations of 6 to 10"
with isolated maximum amounts of 15" are
possible.

,
i
i

02225
3
i
 <
i
. Atlantic Infrared Satelllite Picture I
i
i

02228
6
7 -7
i
Hurricane Katrina Update
1/
i
8
9:00 PM Aug. 25
Katrina relentlessly pounding S FL I
- Calm of the large eye experienced at the national
hurricane center
- The eye of Hurricane Katrina was located near
latitude 25.8 north...Longitude 80.4 west.
- This position is just to the northwest of the National
Hurricane Center in Miami-Dade County
- Katrina is moving South of due West near 6 mph and
this general motion is expected to continue during the
I
next 24 hours

02248
1
1
I Hurricane Katrina Update
9:00 PM Aug. 25 i

8 Maximum sustained winds are 80 mph...With higher

gusts.
I
- Gradual weakening is expected to continue as Katnna moves
inland
- Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 15 miles from the
center
- Topical storm force winds extend outward up to 80 miles
I - Storm surge flooding of 2 to 4 feet above normal tide levels
along with large and dangerous battering waves can be
expected near and to the north of the landfall point
s Due to its slow foward speed Katrina is expected to
produce a significant heavy rainfall event over S FL
. - Total rainfall accumulations of 6-10"
- Isolated maximum amounts of 15"s are possible
1

02249
2
 I
Hurricane Katrina Update I
9:00 PM Aug. 25
Warnings and Advisories
- Hurricane warning remains in effect for the SE FL
coast from Jupiter Inlet S to Florida City including
Lake O keechobee
- Tropical storm warning is also in effect along the Gulf
Coast of FL from Longboat Key S and E to S of
Florida City
- Tropical storm watch is in effect for portions the FL W
Coast from north of Longboat Key to Anclote Key and
for the east-central Fl coast from north of Vero Beach
to Titusville including all of Merritt Island
Satellite Infrared Picture
 Tropical Storm Katrina Update
11:OO PM Aug. 25
Current Situation
Wind gust to 87 mph was reported at the Miami
National Weather Service office
* Heavy rain bands continue to affect S FL, as 'the
center of Katrina moves over land
- Rainfall continues to be very intense over parts of
Dade and Monroe Counties
- Parts of Dade and Broward Counties have storm total
accumulations of 1.5 to 2.5inches
- Key Biscayne has storm totals estimates of 10 to 12
inches
 "-

Total Rainfall

.-...--....?7----
?d Hour CPF
 ---- . . -

1:00 AM Aug. 26
-
Tropical Storm Katr~na

Katrina weakens slightly while passing over

mainland Monroe County, FL
- The eye of Tropical Storm Katrina was located about
I

1I 60 miles NE of Key West

i
I
i - Moving SW near 8 mph
t
- Motion is expected to continue during the next several
i
i
i
I
- hours
Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph with
1 higher gusts
- Gradual re-strengthening is expected once Katrina
emerges over the Gulf of Mexico

02262 ,
 Tropical Storm Katrina
1.00 AM Aug. 26
Storm surge flooding of 2 - 4' above normal tide
levels can be expected along the west coast of
FL south of Venice and in Florida Bay.
Storm surge should gradually decrease this
morning along the east coast of Florida
~ a t r i n ais expected to produce a significant
heavy rainfall event over S FL and Florida Keys
- Total rainfall accumulations of 6 -10"
- Isolated maximum amounts of 15 -20" are possible
--.-
I
@
''
WGOES
East Hwrical~aSECTOR IR Image
...Katrina Bcuumes a Major Hurricane with 115 Mph Winds...
...At 5 am ED7;the Tropical Storm Wartlinghas beet2 z j r s c o n t i n i o dre St't~et'nM11e Bridge to Key
Lurgo F/oridn undfc)r Fforrikt Bay. A Tropical St(~rmCl/nri~iu?g ~crrnuiris111 qgectfrzrrn ,vest of {he Sever7
..
Mile Bridge w esmnrd fo Key Wesl irlclrndrizg the Dry Tbrf11gn.~.

At 5 am EDT, the eye of Hurricane Katriria was located by radar and recocnaissance aircraft near
latitude 24 4 north and longitude 84 4 west or about 435 miles southeast of the mouth of the Mississippi
River and about 165 miles west of Key West Florida.

Katrina is moving toward the west near 7 mph. A gradual turn toward the west-northwest is expected
during the next 24 tiours.

Maximum sustained winds are near 1 15 mph with higher gusts. Katrina is a category three hurricane on
the Saffir-Simpson scale. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 24 hours.

Reco~maissanceaircraft data and surface observations indicate that Katrina has become a larger
hurricane. Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 40 miles from the center ..and tropical stom1
force winds extend outward up to 150 111ilesTropical storm force rvinds are occurring just offshore of
the northern coast of western Cuba.

The minimum central pressure recently reported by an Air Force reconnaissance aircraft was 945
millibars or 27.9 1 inches.

Storm surge flooding of 2 to 4 feet above nonnal tide levels... can be expected along the southwest coast
of Florida in areas of orlshore flow east of Cape Sable... and in Florida Bay. Storm surge wilt gradually
subside today.

Katrina is expected to produce rainfall amounts of 5 to 10 inches over western Cuba ... and 1 to 3 inches
of rainfall is expected over the Yucatan Peninsula Rainfall is expected to slowly diminish across the
lower Florida Keys today ... although an additional 1 to 2 inches of rain is possible in some of the heavier
rain bands.
Isolated tornadoes are possible this morning over the lower Florida Keys.

For the latest information on 13u1.ricaneKatrina, includirlg advisories. tracking maps, and radar
and satellite images, go to

http:L/www.nws~.noa~.g~vfos/tropical~atIa~~tic/

From the NOAA Kational Weather Service Tropical Predictiori Center Discussion on
Katrina at 5am

The eye has become clearly discernible during the past few hours in GOES-12 infrared imagery.
Aircraft reconnaissance indicates the minimum ccntral pressure is falling... most recently measured at
945 mb. While such a low pressure is typical of some category four himicanes... the maximum 700 mb
flight level winds hake not yet exceeded I04 kt which corresponds to about 95 kt at the surface. Given
the falling pressure.. . and Dvorak intensity estimates ranging from 100 to 1 15 kt... the advisory intensity
will be increased to 100 kt,.. making Katrina a category three hurricane. The aircraft data and a few
surface observations also indicate that Katrina has grown in size.. which perhaps explains why the
maximum winds have not yet caught up to the central pressure The initial and forecast wind radii have
been expanded accordingly.

WSK-881) radar imagery from Key West .. and the series of aircraft fixes... indicate that Katrina is
wobbling about a heading just south of due west ... so the long-anticipated turn to the west might be
starting. The dynamical models all forecast a west-northwestward motion to begin later today...
followed by a gradual tun1 toward the northwest and north during the next 2-3 days as the ridse to the
northwest of Katrina eases westward and a weakness develops over the northern Gulf. The dy~~amical
model consensus forecast of the track through the Gulf of Mexico had shilled westward during the past
24 hours of forecast cycles. The latest consensus track is only slightly west of the previous... so it is
possible that the westward shifting of the models is ending. The new official forecast is right on top of
the consensus track and a bit to the west of the previous advisory Due to the decreasing spread in the
models the confidence in the forecast track is increasing

Katrina is located within an atmospheric environment that seemingly cannot get much more conducive
for strengthening... primarily due to a very large upper-level anticyclone over the entire Gulf of Mexico.
Not surprisingly... upper-level outflow from the hurricane continues to become more established. This
weak wind shear environment is forecast by the dynamical models to persist for about the next three
days until an upper-level trough rrioves inlo Texas from the west. Therefore shear could beg11 to
increase over the hrlrricane near the time it makes landfall on the nonhesn Gulf Coast... but it seems that
will be too late to prevent Katrina from maintaining major hurricane status at landfall. ?'he SHIPS
guidance now shows srrengthening to 123 kt .. and the off~c~al forecast now peaks at 120 kt over the
northern Gulf within the next couple of days.

The 12-foot seas radii have been expanded based upon data from NOAA buoy 42003 and on ship data.

Forecast positions and Max winds

initial 27/0900z 24.4n 83 4w 100 kt

12hr VT 27/1800z 24.5n 8 5 . 4 ~ 105 kt
24hr VT 28/0600z 25 On 8 7 . 0 ~1 15 kt
36hr VT 2511800~26.0n 8 8 . 7 ~120 kt
48hr VT 29!0600z 27.41 8 9 . 9 ~120 kt
72hr VT 3010600~3 1 5n 9 0 . 0 ~ 75 kt ..inland
96hr VT 3 110600~36 On 87 5w 30 kt ...inland
120111-VT 0 110600z 40.0n 8 2 . 0 ~25 kt.. .extratropical

,:iruatirtn &port: Hurricune Ar{ttrinn, August 2 7, 20/15

Regional Troyicni litynct and OperafinnsStntentctzt # 14
330 A M EDT 08/27/2005

Impacts

0bser;ed Wind Sp-egds-and Gusts

Sustained winds between 30 and 40 tnph with gusts to 50 mph have occurred overnight in the lower
Keys. Winds have decreased to between 20 and 30 mph in the middle and upper Keys. Peak gusts
occurred between 1 am EDT and 2 am EDT. Recorded peak gusts included: Key West International
Airport - 53 mph, Dry Tortugas - 69 mph, Sombrero Key Light - 44 mp,,and Sand Key Light - 56 mph

Observed Precjp~tation
Rain bands are continuing in h e lower Florida Keys. Key West received a11additional 0.21 inches of
rain in the last 6 hours. Rain has become more widely scattered across the middle and upper Keys the
past 6 hours.

Observe_dI-'loodir?g
Minor flooding near docks and south-facing streets in the lower Keys has occurred.

Observed Storm_SSufgea Tide. Rip Currents

Tides are around 1.5 feet above t~orrnal.

Reported Windf Hailzor Tornad-o Dmage

No new reported wind damage

Repmed Flooding D a m a s
No new significant flood damage reported overnight.

Reported Deaths or Inj-uries

No additional deaths o r injuries reported overnight.

Powm and Communications Outages

Pep-otteedttTr_aveImpacts~n_d
No additional powcr outages reported overnight.

Pr~3-~dn_ess Inform_ationand Evacuations

None Reported

NOAA National Weather Service Operations

Watches w d Long -rcm Warnings

Weather Forecast Qt_'f!.cnfJ~~F~Of
WFO Miami has continued a Flood Watch for ail of southern Miami-Dade County until early Saturday
mornil~g

M7FO Key West has continued a Fl aod Watch for the Keys until early Saturday morning. Hurricane
 Local Statements are bei~lgissued.

Sp-!:_cia!LJpper-AisSpun-dings
Special six f~ourlysoundiilgs are being collducted at the following WFOs Tallahassee, Atlanta,
Norman, Fort Worth, Little liock, Shrevepor-t, Lake Charles, Jackson, New Orleans, and Bii-rningham

Weather Forecast-Qffice fi2'.1iOj_Satus

WFO Key West - All equipment is operational and the WFO is adequately staffd.

W E 0 Miami - Wideband is down (radar). This is a Bell South com~nunicationissue. WFO Miami
working witb Bell South to restore communications.

-
WFO Tarnpa All equipment is operational and the WFO is adequately staffed.
WFO Atlanta - All equipment is operational and the WFO is adequately staffed

WFO New Orleans - All equipment is operational and the WFO is adequately staffed.

%TO Lake Charles - All equipment is operational and ttie WFO is adequately staffed

WFO Mobile - All equipment is operdtional and the U 7 F 0is adequately staffed.

WFO Tallahassee - All equipment is operational and the WFO is adequately staffed.

River Forecast Center mFCJ-Status

Southeast KFG - All equiptner~tis operational and the RFC is adequately staffed. 24-hour operations are
expected to begin 011 Sunday

Center Weather Service Unit (CWSU) Status

CWSU Miami - Adequately staffed and all equipment is operational. Normal hours of operation have
resumed.

. CWSIJ Houston - Adequately staffed and all equipment is operational.

CWSU Atlanta - Adequately staffed and a11 equipment is operational. 24-hr operations will begin
Sunday.

Southern Region
- fIea&uai ters (SRH) Status
SRII Regional Operatiotis Center is in 24 operations (Level 4 ops)

Significant Partneringsnd Coordili-atL(m_c_411ductedbv WFOs,f?FCs or ROOs

WFO Miami - State briefings twice a day Local media interviews are being conducted

WFO Tampa - State briefings twice a day, local Emergency Manager briefing four times a day 1,ocal
media interviews are being conducted.

WFO Key West - Holding roundtable briefings with Fsnergency Management and the Media. I,ocal
media interviews are being conducted.

LWO Tallahassee - State briefings twice a day 1,ocal media interviews are being conducted.
WFO New Orleans - State briefings began Friday night.
WFO Lake Charles - State briefings begin Saturday morning.

W F 0 Jacks011- Stale bt-iefingstwice a day have begun.

SRH ROC - Providing support to FEMA Region 6, FEMA Region 4, and Texas DEM; and conduct in^
interviews with media.

Hurricane Liaison Team - Three SR perso~~nel

were dispatched to the NHC to provide liaison support
for partners that began Friday morning.

Special Note.
A rriissirlg family of five who were boating it1 the Florida Keys yesterday was foirnd by the coast guard
this afternoon and airlifted to safety hroinjuries were reported.

Paul Witsarnan,
Southern Region Operations OkScer
sr-srh.roc@noaa.gov
(817) 978-1 100 X. 147

Note: E-mail notification messages are sent when:

I. An Atlantic Tropical Depression forms (i e., Tropical Prediction Center begins issuing advisories).
2 . An Atlantic Tropical Depression is upgraded to a Tropical (named) Storm.
3. An Atlantic Tropical Storm is upgraded to a Hurricane.
4. Watches or Warnings (Hurricaae/Typhoon or Tropical Sronn) are issued for the United States or its
Territories (both Atlarliic arid Pacific storms). During watch and warning situations, an update message
will be provided every 6 to 12 hours, or as appropriate.
According to NOAA's 8 AM Report:

Tropical Update:
Katrina is now a potentially catastrophic category 5 hurricane with sustained winds of 160 mph with higher gusts.
At %amEDT Katrina was located 250 miles south-southeast of the mouth of the Mississippi River and moving
west-northwest at around 12 rnph. A gradual turn to the northwest is expected later today. Some additional
strengthening is forecast during the next 24 hours. Some fluctuations in strength are likely during the next 24
hours.

Impacts:
Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 85 miles from the center and tropical storrrl force winds extend
outward to 185 miles. The Gulf coast will begin experiencing increasing winds and rain as the outer bands reach
the coast later today.

Coastal storm surge flooding of 15 to 20 feet above normal tide levels, locally as high as 25 feet along with large
and dangerous battering waves can be expected east of where the centre makes landfall.

Rainfall totals of 5 to 10 inches with isolated amounts of 15 inches are possible along the path of Katrina through
the Gulf coast and the southeast U.S.

Isolated tornadoes wilt be possible beginning this evening over southern portions of Louisiana, Mississippi,
Alabama, and the Florida Panhandle
...Potentially catastrophic Ilurricane Katrina headed for the northern Gulf Coast...
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for the north central Gulf Coast from Morgan City, Louisiana,
eastward to the AlabamaiFtorida border...including the city of Kew Orleans and Lake Pontchartrain
Preparations to protect life and property should be completed this evening.

A Tropical Storm Warning and a Hurricane Watch are in effect from east of tile .4labama/E;loridaborder
to Destin Florida...and fiom west of Morgan City to Intracoastal City, Louisiana

X Tropical Storm Warning is also in effect from Destin, Florida, eastward to Indiart Pass, Florida ..and
from lntracoastal City, Louisiana westward to Cameron, Louisiana

A t 5 PM EDT...the center of I-Iunicanc Katrina was located about 150 ittiles south of the mouth of the
Mississippi River.

Katrina is moving toward the northwest near 13 mph and a gradual turn to the north is expected over
the next 24 hours. On this track the center of the hurricane will be near the northern Gulf Coast early
Monday. Iiowever...conditions are already beginning to deteriorate alo~lgportions of the celltral and
northeastertl Gulf Coast. .and uill continue to worsen through the night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 165 mph ...wit11 highcr gusts. Katrina is a potentially catastrophic
category five hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson scale Sotnc f1uctu;ltions in strcrigth are likely until
landfall. Katrina is expected to make landfall at category four or five intensity. Winds affecting the
upper floors of high-rise buildings will be significantly stronger than those near ground level.

Katrina is a large liurricane. Hurricane fbrm winds extend outu7ar-dup to 105 miles from the
center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 230 miles. Sustained tropical storm ful-ce
winds are occurring over the southeast Louisiana coast. Sonthu.est Pass ..near the mouth of the
Mississippi River... recently reported sustained winds of 48 mph with gusts to 53 mph

Coastal stonn surge flooding of IS to 22 i'eet above nornsal tide levels...locally as high as 28 feet. .along
with large and dangerous battering waves. can be expected near and to the east of where the center
 makes landfall. Some levees in the greater New Orleans area could be overtopped. Significant storm
surge flooding will occur eisewhere along the central and northeastern Gulf of Mexico coast.

Rainfall totals of 5 to 10 inches...with isolated martimum amounts of 15 inches...are possible along the
path of Katrina across the Gulf Coast arid the Tennessee Valley. Rair~falltotals of 4 to 8 inches are
possible across the Ohio Valley into the eastern Great Lakes region Tuesday and Wednesday.

Isolated tornadoes will be possible beginning this evening over soutl~ernportions of

Louisiana...Mississippi.. and Alabama and over the Florida Panhandle.
An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at 8 PM EDT followed by the
next complete advisory at 1 I PM EDT.

Hurricane Discussion
Katrina is maintaining a classic presentation on satellite images...and category 5 intensity The cenrral
pressure measured by a NOAA humcane huntcr plane at f755z and 19232 was 902 mb ...which is the
fourth lowest on record in the Atlantic Basin behind hurricane Gilbert of 1958...the Labor Day hurricane
of 1935..,andhurricane Allen of 1980. Waving said that .data from the stepped-Frequency microwave
radiometer instrument on board the aircraft suggest that the surface to 700 rnb flight level wind ratio is
not quite as large as we typically use. ..and the initial intensity is adjusted slightly to 145 kt. Hurricanes
do not maintain such great intensity for very long. However there are no obvious large-scale
mechanisms...such as increased vertical shear...to weaken Katrina. The hurricane is likely to rnake
larid fall with catezory 4 or 5 intensity.

There is not much change to the track forecast piiilosophy. Initial motion is about 3 15/11, Katrina is
expected to gradually turn northward into a break in thc subtropical ridge associated with a large mid-
latitude cyclone near the Great Lakes, The 12z GFDL htlrricane model's track has shifted a little
westward..,as has the latest NOGAPS run. The official forecast is slightly to the west and slightly faster
than the previous NHC tsack. This is very close to both .thedynamical model consensus... and to the
latest FSU superensembletrack. Among our most reliable models . only the U K Met Oftice is
significantly to the east of the official forecast track. It should be noted that the srnall change in the
of'ficial forecast track is essentially at the noise level. One should not focus on the exact
track . . . particulariy in the case of a hurricane as large as this one. Destructive effects will likely be felt
well away from the cerlter and it is not possible to specify which counties or parishes will experience the
worst conditions.

On the basis of aircraft flight level and SFMR surface wind data...the wind radii have been expanded
even more over the norttiern semicircle. Humcane force winds are forecast to spread at least 150 N mi
inland along the path of Katrina. Consult inland hurricane and tropical storm warnings issued by
National Weather Service forecast offices.

'Tropical Depression Thirteen

A new tropical depression formed in the tropical Atlantic and is expected to pass well r~oltl~
of the
Lesser Antilles.
At 5 PM ED'I', the center of newly formed Tropical Depression Thirteen was located about 965 miles
east of the Lesser Antilles. The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 1 3 mph; this
motion is expected to continue during the next 24 hours. .Maximum sustained winds are near 30
mph ..with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next 24 hours.
The latest advisories, forecast discussions, tracking maps, and images for Hurricane
Katrina and Tropical Depression Thirteen are available at:
http:II~~~.n~~.noa~a~g~vio~Itropjlantici
lxnpacts
Observed W-i-nd.Speedsand Gusts
Buoy 42001 (1 80nm south of Southwest Pass, LA) has recorded sustained winds of 49 rnph this
afternoon, along with a peak gust to 52 mph. Numerous other buoys have recorded tropical storm force
winds this afternoon.

Observed Precipitation
Rain bands arc affecting Southerrl and Southeast L,ouisiana this afternoon.

O b s e d Floodinx
Street Flooding in the l.,ower Keys and Key West continues to subside Flooding continues to afTect
south Miami-Dade County and is also subsiding.

Obsened Storm Surge, Tide, Rip-Currents

Above normal tides are observed from Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, and the Gulf Coast of Florida
Rep_or_teL~in-d3dI~&-~~Ko_ra~doDaam_a~
No additional reports of wind damage.
Reported Floodinp Damape
No significant flood damage reported overnight.
R@*rtcdB&@_h~Q ~ - I I ! ~ J u ~ ~ s
-
No additional deaths or injuries reported today.
Uep-wted Travel Impacts a11d Power aird Cornrnur~icatiorrs0ulai.e~
The state of Louisiana has altered transportation system flow to accommodate evacuation orders. Here
is a list of those interstate changes
Interstate 55 is one-way (contra-flowed) north to mile marker 35 in Mississippi.
Interstate 59 is one-way (contra-flowed) north to Meridian, Mississippi.
Interstate 10 is one--ay (contra-flowed) west
Interstate 12 is one-way (cot~tra-tlowed)west
Interstate 10 has been closed to westbound traffic at the Louisianalhfississippi state line
In SoutIi Florida, over 500,000 customers are still witliout power. Power has been restored to some
customers in South Florid a. In the Lower Keys and Key West, most customers have had power
restored

Preparedness Information and E.vac.~urr_tions

mandatory
/IILOUISICIIIL~: evacrlations for most yaristtes in sorltheast Louisiana, reconimended
evacuatio~~s
for the remaining parishes in southeast Louisiana The City of New Orleans issued a
mandatory evacuation Sunday morning.
Ir? Mirri.~sipyi:mandatory evacuations for Hancock County, and all low-lying areas, mobile homes,
camp grounds, beach fronts and all homes south of U.S. 90 in Jackson County. Evacuations strongly
recommended for all of Harrison County. Tulane University is evacuating students to Jackson State
University.

Oif rigs in arcas affected of the Gulf of Mexico have been evacuated

Governors of I,ouisiana and h4ississippi have declared a state of emergency for their state.
President Bush has issued disaster declaratior~sfor Louisiana and Mississippi.

NOAA National Weather Service Operations

\V_eathe~Po_r_ecas
tSffice @YFOj-\Y_atchaandLo~ig ~ e r n i .a -r~n i ~ ~ s
WFO I V ~ IOrleans
~J has issued an inlatld Hrlrricane Warning for all of its parish and county warnirlg area,
plus a FIash Flood Watch for most of the parish and county warning area. In addition, I-Iumcane Local
Statements are being issued,

WFO .J~lcksonhas issued an inland Hurricane Watch for its six southeast counties in their County
Warning Area (CWA) WFO Jackson has issued an inland Tropical Storm Watch for central and eastern
sections of Mississippi. A Flash Flood Warch is in effect for much of Central Mississippi. In addition,
Iiurricane Local Statements are being issued.

W1;O l+kobilt.has issued inland Hurricane Warning and inland Tropical Storln Watch for its inland
Alabama counties. WFO Mobile has issued an inland Tropical Storm Warning for its inland Florida
counties. WFO Mobile has issued and inland Iiumcane Waming and inland Hurricane Watch for its
Mississippi counties. A Flash Flood Watch has also been issued For the iMobile CWA. In addition,
Humcane Local Statements are being issued.

WI-;'CIHirmlutgharn has issued an Inland Tropical Storm Watch for its southwest counties that border the
Alabama-Mississippi state line. h Flood Watch has been issued for I I I L I G ~of the CWA. In addition,
I-Iurricane Local Statei11en.t~are being issued.

@7?OCLfernphishas issued an inland Tropical Stortn watch for portions of Northeast Mississippi from
Monday evening through Tuesday afternoon. A Flood Watch has also been issued.

WFO Ht~i?fsvi/le
has issued an Inland Tropical Storm Watch.

Wl-'O Tallahussee has issued a Coastal Flood Watch. Additionally, Inland Hurricane Warnings have
been issued for the Southwestern CWA. flurricane Local Statements are being issued

WFO Yaohvilk has issued a Flood Watch for portions of their CWA.

Special Upwr Air m n d i n g s

Special six hourly soundings are continuing at the followjng WFOs- .I'allahassec, Atlanta, Norman, Fort
Worth, Little Rock, Shreveport, Lake Charles, Jackson, New Orleans, Corpus Christi, Brownsville, and
Birmingham.

Weath.erFar-ecast O f f ~ c e(W FO) Status

FFO New 0rlearz.s - All equipment is operationaI and one forecaster from WFO h4elboume (Scott
Spratt) arrived Sunday morning to assist operations
RFU Lake (:iturlts - All equipment is operational and the WFO is adequately stalr'ed. The WFO has
begun procedures to backup WFO New Orleans if necessary
WfiUMobrh - Ail equipment is operational and the WFO is adequately staffed.
WFO lixlloha.~sc?e - All equipmerlt is operational and the WFO is adequately staffed. The WFO is ready
for Service Backup if necessary
WFO Jack~on- A11 equipment is operational and the W E 0 is adequately staffed.
W1;? Brmtlu~ghant- All equipment is operational and the WFO is adequately staffed.
WFO Menlphis - .%I1 equipment is operational and the WFO is adequately staffed.
&"'O Shveport - All equipment is operational and the WFO is adequately staffed.

River
- ForecastCe~jier(R?!C'] Status
Sotdwz.sr IZITO' - All equipment is operational and the RFC is adequately staffed. 24-hour operations are
expected to begin Sunday.
ZU*.C - All eyuipirier~tis operational and the RI-C is adequately staffed. 24-hour
LowerMi.ssi.~~~ippi
operations began overnight

Gmer.Weatber Sentice U ~ l i LCWSLJ)

t Status
- Adequately staffed and all equipment i s operational. 24-hr operations begin today.
L.'U;SC/fIo~atmi
CWSUAilanta - Adequately staffed and all equipment is operational. 24-hr operations will begin today.
Souther11Region Headquarters (SRI1) Status
SKH Regional Operations Center is in 24 operations (Level 4 ops).

Siynificant-Partnerin?and Coo_rdinationcondi~ctetlby -WFOs,.RFCs or ROC-s

WPf7 Tulfahn.s.ree- State briefings twice per day scheduled today
WI;(3New Orfeans - State briefings four times per day. Numerous media interviews conducted
WO L~lkeChcrrle~- State briefings four tirnes per day
WFO Mobile - Multiple state briefings with Alabama, Mississippi, and Florida, plus CWA ernersency
manager briefings
WI+'C),/acbon - State briefings four times a day Xumerous media interviews conducted. One staff
member was dispatched to be a constant liaisori
with the Mississippi Emergency Management .4gency and Governor. The LMRFC has set up backup
operations at the KJAN office
WPO Memphis - Beginning briefings with local EMS this afternoon. IYurnerous rnedia interview
conducted.
(IKYI? Housion - Briefings scheduled with FAA Headquarters and the Southwest Region\
SRH ROC' - Providing support to FEMA Region 6, FEMA Region 4, 'Texas DEM; and conducting
interviews with media. One hurricane liaison meteorologist deployed to Louisiana Ofice of Homeland
Security and Emergency Preparedness in Baton Rouge, LA, one is being dispatched to WFO Jackson,
MS ar~danother has been dispatched to FEMA. Another meteorologist is in standby status for 'Texas
DEM.
- Three S R personnel were dispatched to the NHC to provide liaison support
Iltn-ric-cwze Li~risonl j a r n
for partners beginning Friday morning. One SR individual is being dispatched to the LA Eniergency
Operations Center.
Special Note:
1\11 of the New Orleans, Louisiana (KLIX) staff; including some family members. will be sheltering at
the ofice
 Katrina Update
8:00 PM Aug. 28
* At 7 PM CDT The center of Hurricane Katrina
was located about 130 mi S of the mouth of the
Mississippi River
Katrina is moving NNW near 11 mph
- A turn to the north is expected over the next 24 hours
- On this track the center of the hurricane will be near
the northern Gulf Coast early Monday
- Conditions are already beginning to deteriorate along
portions of the central and northeastern Gulf Coast
and will continue to worsen through the night
 -- --

!I Katrina Update
, 8:00 PM Aug. 28
8 Maximum sustained winds are near 16Omph
II with higher gusts
- Katrina is a potentially catastrophic category 5
hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson scale
- Katrina is expected to make landfall at category 4 or 5
intensity
- Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 105 miles
from the center
- Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 230
miles
- Sustained tropical storm force winds are already
occurring over the SE Louisiana coast

02469
 Katrina Update
8100PM Aug. 28
Coastal storm surge flooding of 18 to 22' above
normal tide levels locally as high as 28'
Large and dangerous battering waves can be
expected near and to the east of where the
center makes landfall
Some levees in the greater New Orleans area
could be overtopped
Significant storm surge flooding will occur
elsewhere along the central and northeastern
Gulf of Mexico coast
 Katrina Update
8:00 PM Aug. 28
Rainfall totals of 5 to 10" with isolated
maximum amounts of15" are possible
along the path of Katrina across the Gulf
Coast and the Tennessee Valley
a Rainfall totals of 4 to 8" are possible
across the Ohio Valley into the eastern
II
I Great Lakes Region Tuesday and
/ Wednesday 1
New Orleans Radar
8.15 PM Aua. 28
r---" I

I Hurricane Katrina
I
i
i 11:OO PM Aug. 28
'
I At 10 PM The center of Hurricane Katrina was
located about 105 miles S of the mouth of the
Mississippi River and about 170 miles SSW New
Orleans
* Katrina is moving NNW near 10 mph
- A turn to the N is expected over the next 12 to 24
hours
- On the forecast track the center of the hurricane will
be very near the Northern Gulf Coast monday
morning
- Conditions are already deteriorating along portions of
the central and NE Gulf Coast
I
1

02484 ,
 Hurricane Katrina
11:OO PM Aug. 28
Maximum sustained winds are neat 160 mph with higher
gusts
I - Katrina is a category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-
I Simpson scale.
I - Some fluctuations in strength are likely prior to
landfall
- And Katrina is expected to make landfall at either
category 4 or 5 intensity
- Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 105 miles
from the center
- Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 230
miles
- A wind gust to 90 mph was recently reported from
Southwest Pass, LA
 Hurricane Katrina
11:00 PM Aug. 28
* Coastal storm surge flooding of 18-22' above
normal tide levels
- Locally as high as 28'
Large and dangerous battering waves can be
expected near and to the east of where the
center makes landfall
- Some levees in the greater New Orleans area could
be overtopped
- Significant storm surge flooding will occur elsewhere
along the central and northeastern Gulf of Mexico
Coast
 Hurricane Katrina
11:00 PM Aug. 28
/ 9 Rainfall totals of 5 -10" I1
- Isolated maximum amounts of 15" are possible along I
1
the path of Katrina across the Gulf Coast and the
Tennessee Valley
- Rainfall totals of 4 -8" are possible across the Ohio
Valley into the eastern Great takes Region Tuesday
and Wednesday
* Isolated tornadoes will be possible this evening
over southeastern LA, southern MS, southern
AL, and over the FL panhandle tonight
 -----.-----
Hurricane Katrina
Update
1.00 AM Aug. 29
At midnight CDT The center of Hurricane Katrina
was about 90 mi. SSW of the mouth of the
Mississippi River and about 150 mi. SSE of New
Orleans
Katrina is moving NNW near 10 mph
- A turn to the north is expected over the next 12 to 24
hours
- On the forecast track the center of the hurricane will
be very near the northern Gulf Coast Monday
morning
- However, conditions are already deteriorating along
portions of the central and northeastern Gulf Coast
and will continue to worsen through the night.
7-
Hurricane Katrina

1:00 AM Aug. 29
Maximum sustained winds remain near
160 mph with higher gusts
Katrina is a category 5 hurricane on the
Saffir-Simpson scale.
Some fluctuations in strength are likely
prior to landfall
Katrina is expected to make landfall at
either category 4 or 5 intensity,
 Hurricane Katrina

1.00 AM Aug. 29
Hurricane force winds extend outward up
to 105 miles from the center
Tropical storm force winds extend outward
up to 230 miles
Wind gust to 98 mph was recently
reported from southwest pass louisiana
 Hurricane Katrina I
Update
1.00 AM Aug. 29
Coastal storm surge flooding of 18-22' above
normal tide levels locally as high as 28'
Large and dangerous battering waves can be
expected near and to the east of where the
center makes landfall
Some levees in the greater New Orleans area
could be overtopped
Significant storm surge flooding will occur
elsewhere along the central and northeastern
Gulf of Mexico coast
1

I
i
i

l
8

8
Update --
Hurricane Katrina

1.00 AM Aug. 29
Rainfall totals of 5-10" with isolated maximum
amounts of 15" are possible along the path of
Katrina across the Gulf Coast and the
Tennessee Valley
Rainfall totals of 4-8" are possible across the
Ohio Valley into the eastern Great Lakes Region
Tuesday and Wednesday.
Isolated tornadoes will be possible this evening
over SE LA, southern MS, southern AL, and
over the FL panhandle tonight.
I
i

II
8

I
 -- -- --7I
Hurricane Katrina Update
I
i 3:00 AM A u ~ 29
. i
I
At 2 AM The center of Hurricane Katrina j
was located about 70 mi SSVV of the
mouth of the Mississippi River and about
130 miles SSE qf New Orleans
Katrina is now moving toward the north
near 12 mph
- This motion is forecast to continue today with
a gradual increase in forward speed.
- A turn toward the NNE is expected later
tonight and on Tuesday.
I

i
I
---------- - -
!
I
i Hurricane Katrina Update
3:00 AM Aug. 29
Maximum sustained winds are near 155 mph
i with higher gusts
Katrina is now a strong category 4 hurricane on
the Saffir-Simpson scale.
1!
i
Some fluctuations in strength are likely prior to
; landfall
1
I
Hurricane force winds extend outward up to
1
105mi from the center
a Tropical storm farce winds extend outward up to
I 230mi from the center
i
 --

I
I,
Hurricane Katrina Update
I
I
3:00 AM Aug. 29
I Coastal storm surge flooding of 18-22' above normal tide
!
levels, locally as high as 28 feet
'i
,
; Some levees in the greater New Orleans area could be
overtopped
i Significant storm surge flooding will occur elsewhere
i! along the central and northeastern Gulf of Mexico coast
!
Large and dangerous battering waves can be expected
, near and to the east of where the center makes landfall
I
- NOAA buoy 42040 located about 50 miles east of the
i mouth of the Mississippi river recently reported waves
8
heights of at least 40'
j
I
II
I

02512
 Hurricane Katrina Update
3:00 AM Aug. 29
- The tornado threat ahead of Katrina is
increasing and scattered tornadoes will be
possible today over SE LA, S MS, S AL,
and over the FL Panhandle tonight.
I
(Hurricane Katrina, see attached slides)

General Situation.
Much depends of the track of Hurricane Katrina after landfall. Katrina will rapidly lose its tropical characteristics
and punch after landfall. By 72 hours the storm will have become extra-tropical and merged with the system in
the northern Ohio Valley.

The front currently extending from Ontario into the Ohio Valley wrll dissipate during the forecast period and will be
replaced by the cold front moving in from the upper mid-west. The tropical air mass brought north with remnants
of Katrina will interact with the extra-tropicaljet producing a large area of heavy precipitation.

Meanwhile heavy rain bands in FL may yield up to 2" of rain as a more seasonal flow returns following Katrina's
passage.

Another strong system is entering the NW. This system has sufficient support to make it across the Rockies into
the Northern Plains on Tuesday. The majority of the precipitation associated with this system will spread into the
NW in the form of showers and thundershowers following the frontal passage.

Extended Outlook.
The remnants of Katrina will move swiftly through the Ohio Valley and merge with the systerns moving from the
northern Great Plains. Heavy rains will accompany the now extra-tropical system as it moves into NY and
Quebec. The remainder of the models diverge significantly making for a difficult forecast. A high pressure
system over the western US should result in a relatively quiet period west of the Rockies.
 Hurricane Katrina Update
5 0 0 AM Aug. 29
I s Recent aircraft reconnaissance found that
Katrina has weakened slightly to a Cat 4 storm
on the Saffir-Simpson scale
- Maximum winds are now 150 mph with higher gusts
- However, Katrina remains a dangerous storm
At 4 AM CDT The center of Hurricane Katrina
was about 90 miles SSE of New Orleans
Katrina is moving toward N near 15 mph
 Hurricane Katrina Update
5:00 AM Aug. 29
Hurricane force winds extend outward up
to 105 miles from the center
Tropical storm force winds extend outward
up to 230 miles
* A sustained wind of 53 mph with gust to
91 mph was reported at Grand Isle and a
wind gust to 71 rnph was reported in New
Orleans
- --- -- - - -- -
i
Hurricane Katrina Update
5 0 0 AM Aug. 29
Coastal storm surge flooding of 18-22' above normal tide
levels, locally as high as 28'
Significant storm surge flooding will occur elsewhere
along the central and northeastern Gulf of Mexico coast
Some levees in the greater New Orleans area could be
overtopped
* Large and dangerous battering waves can be expected
near and to the east of where the center makes landfall
- NOAA buoy 42040 located about 50 miles east of the
mouth of the Mississippi River recently reported
waves heights of at least 46'

1
 Hurricane Katrina Update
5:00 AM Aug. 29
8 Rainfall totals of 5-10" with isolated maximum
amounts of 15" are possible along the path of
Katrina across the Gulf Coast and the
Tennessee Valley
e Rainfall totals of 4-8" are possible across the
Ohio Valley into the eastern Great Lakes Region
Tuesday and Wednesday
9 The tornado threat ahead of Katrina continues to
increase and scattered tornadoes will be
possible today over southeastern LA, southern
MS, southern AL. and over the FL panhandle.
I

Total Rainfall 1
Through 8:00 PM 'Sep. 1
---- -
Total Rainfall
Through 8:00 PM Ser, 2
 Hurricane Katrina Update
11:OO AM Aug. 29
Katrina was located near the mouth of the
Pearl River about 35 miles east-northeast
of New Orleans and about 45 miles west-
southwest of Biloxi, Mississippi. Maximum
winds are now 125 mph with higher gusts
- Hurricane force winds are expected to spread
inland up to 150 miles.
- Katrina is now a Category 3
I
Katrina is moving toward N near 16 rnph
I
 Hurricane Katrina Update
5:00 AM Aug. 29
Coastal storm surge flooding of 15-20'
above normal tide levels along with
dangerous battering waves near and east
of the center. Storm surge flooding of 10 to
15 feet near the tops of the levees is still
possible in the Greater New Orleans area.
1
Significant storm surge flooding will occur
elsewhere along the central and
northeastern Gulf of Mexico coast

L
7

Hurricane Katrina Update

5:00 AM Aug. 29
Rainfall totals of 5-1 0" with isolated maximum
amounts of 15" are ossible aion the path of II
8 !
Katrina across the ulf Coast an the
Tennessee Valley I
Rainfall totals of 4-8" are possible across the I
Ohio Valley into the eastern Great Lakes Region
I Tuesday and Wednesday
The tornado threat ahead of Katrina continues to
/ increase and scattered tornadoes will be
1, possible today over southeastern LA. southern
and eastern MS, southern and central AL. and
! the western FL panhandle.
i
!
i

02569
4
I
i
I Total Rainfall
i
Through 8:00 PM Sep. I
Ii
i

1
I
i
I
1
i
I
j
i
i
!
!
i
I
i
i
ii
Ii

j
 Total Rainfall
Througti 8:00 PM Sep 2
Significant River Flood Outlook
Through Sep. 2
Tropical Storm Katrina Update
At 4 AM CDT the center of Tropical Storm Katrina was Located about 35 miles NE of Tupelo, MS.
Katrina is moving NNE near 18 mph. A turn toward the NE and a faster foward speed is expected
during the next 24 hours.
There is a moderate risk of severe weather over the Piedmont region of the centrailsouthern
Appalachians. A slight risk is possible from the Mid-Atlantic States southward into the Tennessee Valley
and the Carolinas
- Tornadoes are possible today over western SC, NC and VA.
Flood Watches are in effect for parts of MS, TN, KY, OH, GA, SC, NC, VA, WV, MD, PA, and NY
- Numerous rivers are either in flood or forecast to flood, but on most rivers flooding will not reach
major ievels

Washington DC Weather
Today: A slight chance of showers, then penods of showers and thunderstorms after 1 lam Some of the storms
could be severe H~ghnear 82. Southeast wnd between 6 and 13 mph Chance of preuptahon 1s 80% New rainfall
amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch poss~ble

Tonight: Penods of showers and thunderstorms, mainly before 11pm. Some of the storms could be severe. Low
around 75. South wrnd between 13 and 15 rnph Chance of prec~p~tatron
is BOY0 New ralnfall amounts between a
quarter and half of an inch possible.

Wednesday: A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly cloudy, with a h~ghnear 88. Southwest wnd between
10 and 14 mph, Chance of prec~pitationis 50%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch
possible

Wednesday Night: A chance of showers and thunderstorms Partly cloudy, wth a low near 72. West vfind between 5
and 11 rnph. Chance of precipitation is 30%. New rainfall amounts of less than a tenth of an Inch poss~ble.

Thursday: Mostiy sunny, with a high around 87. Northwest wtnd between 5 and 8 rnph,

Thursday Night: Clear, with a low around 67.

Friday: Sunny, with a high near 84.

 Friday Night: Clear, wth a low around 65.

Saturday: Sunny, w~tha high near 81.

Saturday Night: Clear, wlth a low near 63.

Sunday: Sunny, w~tha hlgh around 80.

Sunday Night: Clear, with a low around 62

Labor Day: Sunny, with a high around 80

Amy Holman
NOAA Desk, Homeland Security Operations Center - 202-282-9937

Home office: NOAA Emergency Response Program - NOAAlNational Ocean Servrce - Office of Response &
Restoration - 301-713-2989XI
02 - arny.ho!man@nqaa.gov
' 11,1~~,~~,~~,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,~,,,,,,1,,,,,,~,~,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,t,~,,,,1,,,~,,,,,,1,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,',,,,,,,,~,,~,~~,'~',,~,,~~,~~,I,,I,,~,~,,,,I~,,,,,,,,,,I~,,,,~~,I~I1~1I,~Il111I1~I~~,

NOAA Mississippi River Satuts:

Here is the official status statement on the Mississippi River survey:

NOAA's Offlce of Coast Survey has completed a detailed survey of the

first 20 miles of the main Mississippi River channel - northward from

the Gulf of Mexico to Pilottown, LA. The next 200 miles - stretching

from Pllottown to Baton Rouge has been preliminarily surveyed by the U.S.

Coast Guard.

At St30 a.m. CDT this morning, Friday, September 2, the U.S. Coast Guard

Captarn o f the Port of New Orleans opened the ~ i s s ~ s s i p pRlver

l from

Baton Rouge to the Gulf of Mexico for vessels drawing nd more than 3 5
feet Ln draft. This is 10 feet less than the normal channel operatronal

draft of 45 feet.

NOAA will continue to survey from Pilottdwn to Baton Rouge early next

week. At the request of the U.S. Coast Guard, NOAA will be conducting

an object detection survey looking for any underwater obstr~ctionsin

the channel. As NOAA does thls survey, it will also be rernstalling tide

gages and conducting a highly precise bathymetric survey. It is

anticipated that the precise survey wlll take approximately two weeks to

complete.

Any of the above can be attributed to LCDR Doug Baird, Chief of

Hydrographic Survey Operations for NOAA's Office of Coast Survey.

 Current Situation

This Afternoon
- Highs 90 to 95 with heat index values

- Cloud bases 2500-3500 feet.

- Thunderstorm coverage .10% or less,
mainly SW of New Orleans.
- Surface winds NE 8 mph
- Winds below 10,000 feet less than 15 kts.
 Forecast
Saturday, 3PM, Sep. 3
Saturday Night
- Partly cloudy, cloud bases 1500-2500
feet.
- LOWS70 to 75.
- Thunderstorm coverage 10% or less,
mainly SW of New Orleans.
I

031 87 4
 - -- - - - .-- - -

24-Hr Forecast
, *zff
--- Valid 3:00 PM Sunday Sep 4

I
I
I
!

03188
5
- Partly Cloudy, cloud bases 4000 feet
- Thunderstorm coverage 10% or less area
- Highs 91 to 96, heat indices 105 to1 10.
- Wind ENE 8 to 15 mph
- Winds below 10,000, E 10 to 15 kts

Sunday Night
- Mostly clear
- LOWS71 to 76
 48-Hr Forecast
Valid 3:00 PM Monday Sep 4
 Monday, September 5,2005

- Highs 90 to 95, heat index near 105

- Increasing cloudiness, thunderstorm
coverage 20% area wide.
- Cloud bases 3500 feet, except near I

storms cloud bases 1500 feet.

- ,Winds 12 to 16 mph, winds below
10,000 feet E 15 to 20 kts.

03191
8
 DAY ONE RAINFALL FORECAST VALID FOR THE
PERIOD 8PM SATURDAY THROUGH 8PM SUNDAY

03192
9
C
 KATRINA TRACK FORECAST PROJECTTONS
(Projections based on daily l l A M Advisories)

August 24,2005, l l a m - The track of Katrina was focusing on portions

of the Northwest Bahamas Islands and south Florida.

August 25,2005, l l a m - The track of Katrina focused on landfall along

the southeast Florida coast from Vero Beach southward to Florida City.
The day-4 and day-5 forecasts turned the storm to the north after
crossing south Florida, The area of interest for a possible landfall
placed the highest landfall probabilities along the xlortheast Gulf coast
from Apalachicola, FL, west to Mobile, AL.

August 26,2005, 1l a m - The track of Katrina focused on the Florida

landfall and cxiting south Florida. The day-4 and day-5 forecasts
turned the storm to the north after crossing south Florida. The area of
interest for a possible landfall placed the highest landfall probabilities
along the northern Gulf coast from Pensacola, FL west to New Orleans,
LA.

August 27,2005, l l a m - By the 27ththis advisory was the first to shift

the focus westward. It was this advisory that provided notice of a
Hurricane watch in effect for the southeastern coast of Louisiana,
including the city of New Orleans. The highest probabilities for
landfall began to focus on an area of the coastline from Mobile, AL to
Buras, LA.

August 28,2005, l l a m - This advisory addressed the potential for a

catastrophic hurricane. The hurricane warning was posted for the
north central Gulf from Morgan City, L,A eastward to the
...
Alabarna/Florida Border including the city of New Orleans and Lake
Ponchartrain. The highest strike probabilities focused on the area
between Gulf Port, MS and New Orleans.

August 29,2005, l l a m - This advisory spoke to the second landfall on

the Louisiana coast. Earlier that morning landfall occurred on the
southern end of Plaquemines Parish, LA, about 50 miles south-
southeast of New Orleans as a Category 4. The eye of the storm was
located about 35 miles cast-northeast of New Orleans, LA.
August 30,2005, 1 1 am the storm had weakened to a tropical depression
and was located in the northeast corner of Mississippi.