Professional Documents
Culture Documents
Adopted from
Erik R Larsen
Cass Business School, City University, London
Faculty of Economics and Management, USI, Lugano, Switzerland
Overview
• Introduction
– Participants
– Lecturer
• Introduction to the course
• Brief history of System Dynamics
• Introduction to Systems Thinking
Understanding feedback and delays in social
and organizational systems
• From Mapping to Simulation
Building simulation models with teams. From
models to microworlds
Open-Loop Thinking
• Tightly Coupled
“Everything influences everything else”
“You can’t just do one thing”
• Dynamic
Change occurs at many time scales
• Policy Resistant
Many obvious solutions to problems fail or actually worsen the
situation.
• Counterintuitive
Cause and effect are distant in time and space
• Exhibit Tradeoffs
Long term behaviour is often different from short term behaviour
System Dynamics
Events
Behaviour
System Structure
reference mode
25
20
15
Sales
10
0
1 6 11 16 21 26 31
Time
Anatomy of a Causal Loop Diagram
Amount
Hunger B
Eaten
O (-)
Interest R Balance
S
Increasing Crime
Behaviour
What is the reference mode (behaviour) of this system?
System Structure
Time
Increasing Crime
What is the structure of this system?
What is the causal loop diagram which
explains the observed behaviour?
Events
Drug Seizures
Price
System Structure
Supply
Demand
Telling a Story Based on a Conceptual Model
• Reinforcing Loops
– Engines of growth and decline
• Balancing Loops
– Goal seeking processes and limits to growth
• Delays
– When results take time
Taking a Shower: The Movie
Managing Water T in a Shower
34
32
30
Water T
28
26
24
22
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120
Time
S Water
Temperature
Desired
Temperature
O
Tap setting
T Gap
(A-D)
S
Managing Water T in Two Showers
Desired Desired
Temperature B Temperature A
O
S Water
Temperature A
S
Tap setting
B
T Gap B
(A-D) B B
O
O
Tap setting
A T Gap A
S
Water (A-D)
Temperature S
B O
Managing Water T in Two Showers
38
33
Water T
28
23
18
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120
Time