Historical sales

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep

2016 43 40 39 40 37 46 33 31 41
2017 39 42 51 52 35 44 49 44 47
2018 60 56 60 52 38 53 47 57 47

Projected sales
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep
2019 55 66 63 45 63 55 47 55 68
1 64 63 67 65 55 56 55 68 59
2 44 57 56 56 56 57 62 55 50
3 65 52 58 62 63 49 57 55 59
4 61 55 54 61 64 55 67 58 64
5 53 48 59 49 56 65 52 58 58
6 66 60 55 62 54 62 55 64 59
7 60 62 48 64 60 54 58 58 56
8 57 64 62 50 54 60 63 61 62
9 59 67 50 56 61 49 63 55 57
10 53 61 60 53 61 60 53 58 61
Oct Nov Dec Min Max Average Stdev Total Y/Y
37 46 30 30 46 39 5 463
40 51 39 35 52 44 5 533 0.15
54 43 41 38 60 50 7 608 0.14

Oct Nov Dec Min Max Average

45 50 53 43 68 58
60 55 60 55 68 60
63 58 52 44 63 55
53 64 68 49 68 59
47 66 61 47 67 60
50 58 61 48 65 55
54 52 57 52 66 58
64 58 45 45 64 57
56 66 57 50 66 59
58 54 47 47 67 56
53 72 66 53 72 59
SMALL BUSINESS CASH FLOW PROJECTION
Innovative Speakers

Starting date 1/1/2017 1 2 3

Cashflow minimum $583.60 $ 842 $ (233) $ 922

Margin 16.64% 0.0147794718 22% 18% 21%
End period cash balance $8,740.50 $ 13,233 $ 9,986 $ 12,103

Return rate 10%

Annual sales growth rate 20%
Unit price $89
Advertising budget $2,000.00 $2,000.00 $2,000.00 $2,000.00 $2,000.00

SALES FORECAST Jan Feb Mar Apr

Prior year speaker sales 60 56 60 52
Projected sales 59 51 66 53

CASHFLOW PROJECTION Beginning Jan Feb Mar Apr

Cash on hand (beginning of month) 50 50 584 1,144 2,639
Cash on hand (end of month) 50 584 1,144 2,639 3,324

CASH RECEIPTS
Cash sales 5,251 4,539 5,874 4,717
Returns and allowances 525 0 0 0
TOTAL CASH RECEIPTS 4,726 4,539 5,874 4,717
Total cash available 50 4,776 5,123 7,018 7,356

CASH PAID OUT

Advertising 2,000 2,000 2,000 2,000
Contract labor 600 600 600 600
Materials and supplies (in COGS) 1,575 1,362 1,762 1,415
SUBTOTAL 4,197 3,984 4,384 4,037
TOTAL CASH PAID OUT 4,192 3,979 4,379 4,032
Cash on hand (end of month) 50 584 1,144 2,639 3,324
 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
$0.00
$ 715 $ 245 $ 932 $ 626 $ 503 $ 567 $ 267
21% 18% 20% 19% 21% 18% 21%
$ 12,664 $ 9,635 $ 11,736 $ 10,943 $ 12,535 $ 10,199 $ 12,469

$2,000.00 $2,000.00 $2,000.00 $2,000.00 $2,000.00 $2,000.00 $2,000.00 $2,000.00

May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

38 53 47 57 47 54 43 41
59 61 55 52 44 44 50 58

May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Total

3,324 4,382 5,566 6,375 6,998 7,122 7,246 7,744
4,382 5,566 6,375 6,998 7,122 7,246 7,744 8,741

5,251 5,429 4,895 4,628 3,916 3,916 4,450 5,162 58,028

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 525
5,251 5,429 4,895 4,628 3,916 3,916 4,450 5,162 58,553
8,575 9,811 10,461 11,003 10,914 11,038 11,696 12,906

2,000 2,000 2,000 2,000 2,000 2,000 2,000 2,000 24,000

600 600 600 600 600 600 600 600 7,200
1,575 1,629 1,469 1,388 1,175 1,175 1,335 1,549 17,408
4,197 4,251 4,091 4,010 3,797 3,797 3,957 4,171 48,872
4,192 4,246 4,086 4,005 3,792 3,792 3,952 4,166 48,812
4,382 5,566 6,375 6,998 7,122 7,246 7,744 8,741
Projections of customer growth

Historical data cumulative customer count

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct
30 32 38 45 55 69 87 110 140 179
0.067 0.188 0.184 0.222 0.255 0.261 0.264 0.273 0.279

Chart Title
350

300

250

200

150

100

50

0
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14
 Nov Dec
232 303
0.296 0.306
Projections of customer growth

Historical data cumulative customer count

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep

30 36 44 54 66 81 99 121 148

Forecast
Variables
270 Cb customers at base period
0.2 r growth rate per period
1.5 t number of periods after base

e mathematical constant
Cf Customers at a future period

CF = Cf=Cb*e^(r*t)
364.462
Oct Nov Dec
181 221 270
Saving for retirement
Example 1 linear growth through a constant increase

Deposit amount 1000

Savings after 10 years 10000

2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023

deposits per period 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000
cumulative deposits 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 8,000
2024 2025
1,000 1,000
9,000 10,000
Saving for retirement
Example 2 proportionate growth through a constant percent increase

One time deposit amount 10000

Interest rate on savings 1.50%
Savings after 10 years 11,434

2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024

Value 10,000 10,150 10,302 10,457 10,614 10,773 10,934 11,098 11,265
 2025
11,434
Rapid growth of an epidemic
Example 3 exponential growth

Variables
15 Pb infections at base period
0.15 r growth rate per period
7.5 t number of periods after base

e mathematical constant
Pf Infections at a future period

Pf = Pf=Pb*e^(r*t)
46.2033
New product market tests market research test market national market Combined Forecast
probability

Cost of market research 100,000

Cost of test market 500,000 success 0.9
Cost of national campaign 3,000,000 0.27 8,658,000
Forecast revenues - test 400,000 yes
Forecast revenues - national 45,000,000 success national?
0.75
success test market? yes no Outcome = 0 failure 0.1 0.03
0.4 failure national? success 0.1 0.01 (3,146,000)
0.25 yes
Research? no Outcome = 0
Yes
failure 0.9 0.09
failure test market? yes
0.6 no
Outcome = 0
no
No Outcome = 0 Outcome = 0
success 0.7 0.08 213,600
success national?
0.2
no Outcome = 0
failure 0.3 0.04

failure national? yes success 0.05 0.02 (2,510,400)

0.8
no

failure 0.95 0.46

Outcome = 0
total 100%
Regression Analysis
Correlation 0.989071
Weight (carats) Price (Singapore dollars)
0.17 355
0.16 328
0.17 350
0.18 325
0.25 642 Chart Title
0.16 342 1200
0.15 322
0.19 485 1000

0.21 483
800
0.15 323
0.18 462 600
0.28 823
0.16 336 400
0.2 498
0.23 595 200
0.29 860
0
0.12 223 0.1 0.15 0.2 0.25 0.3 0.35
0.26 663
0.25 750
0.27 720
0.18 468
0.16 345
0.17 352
0.16 332
0.17 353
0.18 438
0.17 318
0.18 419
0.17 346
0.15 315
0.17 350
0.32 918
0.32 919
0.15 298
0.16 339
0.16 338
0.23 595
0.23 553
0.17 345
0.33 945
0.25 655
0.35 1086
0.18 443
0.25 678
0.25 675
0.15 287
0.26 693
0.15 316
0.3 0.35 0.4
Regression Analysis

Weight (carats) Price (Singapore dollars)

0.12 223
0.15 322
0.15 323
0.15 315
0.15 298
0.15 287
0.15 316
0.16 328
0.16 342
0.16 336
0.16 345
0.16 332
0.16 339
0.16 338
0.17 355
0.17 350
0.17 352
0.17 353
0.17 318
0.17 346
0.17 350
0.17 345
0.18 325
0.18 462
0.18 468
0.18 438
0.18 419
0.18 443
0.19 485
0.2 498
0.21 483
0.23 595
0.23 595
0.23 553
0.25 642
0.25 750
0.25 655
0.25 678
0.25 675
0.26 663
0.26 693
0.27 720
0.28 823
0.29 860
0.32 918
0.32 919
0.33 945
0.35 1086
SUMMARY OUTPUT

Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0.989071
R Square 0.978261
Adjusted R Square 0.977788
Standard Error 31.84052
Observations 48

ANOVA
df SS MS F Significance F
Regression 1 2098596 2098596 2069.991 6.751E-40
Residual 46 46635.67 1013.819
Total 47 2145232

Coefficients
Standard Error t Stat P-value Lower 95%Upper 95%Lower 95.0%
Upper 95.0%
Intercept -259.6259 17.31886 -14.99094 2.523E-19 -294.487 -224.7649 -294.487 -224.7649
Weight (carats) 3721.025 81.78588 45.49715 6.751E-40 3556.398 3885.651 3556.398 3885.651
Upper 95.0%