Trading Day Closing Price for Stock A (in $) Return R on Stock A

1 35.79
2 36.96 0.0327
3 36.15 -0.0219
4 36.89 0.0205
5 35.89 -0.0271
6 38.82 0.0816
7 38.61 -0.0054
8 38.64 0.0008
9 37.64 -0.0259
10 37.88 0.0064
11 38.76 0.0232
12 39.73 0.0250
13 40.61 0.0221
14 41.35 0.0182
15 39.32 -0.0491
16 40.18 0.0219
17 40.29 0.0027
18 39.57 -0.0179
19 40.41 0.0212
20 40.91 0.0124
21 40.90 -0.0002
22 41.62 0.0176
23 40.74 -0.0211
24 40.26 -0.0118
25 39.65 -0.0152
26 39.51 -0.0035
27 38.81 -0.0177
28 37.90 -0.0234
29 39.25 0.0356
30 40.47 0.0311
31 41.10 0.0156
32 41.13 0.0007
33 40.23 -0.0219
34 41.06 0.0206
35 42.31 0.0304
36 42.85 0.0128
37 43.37 0.0121
38 43.43 0.0014
39 43.21 -0.0051
40 43.70 0.0113

"Last" 20 Scenarios for the Return on Stock A (observed on trading days 21 -40)
=(A46-$B$67)^2
Scenario for R Probability of Scenario Squared Deviation of R from the Expected Value
-0.0002 0.05 1.37731059021E-05
0.0176 0.05 0.0001998586555048
 -0.0211 0.05 0.0006056745172168
-0.0118 0.05 0.0002325261125776
-0.0152 0.05 0.0003466407103854
-0.0035 0.05 4.896738342297E-05
-0.0177 0.05 0.000448753729213
-0.0234 0.05 0.0007243816751917
0.0356 0.05 0.0010338333020902
0.0311 0.05 0.0007626450038927
0.0156 0.05 0.0001464175555411
0.0007 0.05 7.490334321445E-06
-0.0219 0.05 0.0006425521605875
0.0206 0.05 0.0002946233250211
0.0304 0.05 0.0007277304328587
0.0128 0.05 8.641869636422E-05
0.0121 0.05 7.514430297094E-05
0.0014 0.05 4.340262826407E-06
-0.0051 0.05 7.280180477465E-05
0.0113 0.05 6.19871692371E-05
=SUMPRODUCT(B46:B65,A46:A65)
Expected R 0.00346677452249728
Variance of R 0.000326828011995017
St.Dev. of R 0.0180783852153619 =SUMPRODUCT(B46:B65,C46:C65)

=SQRT(B68)