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𝑡
R(t) = 𝑒 (−λ𝑡) = 𝑒 −θ
Reliability of product
120% MTBF : 182
60%
40%
20%
0%
396
120
212
304
485
577
669
761
850
942
31
1215
1034
1126
1307
1399
1491
1580
1672
1764
1
Weibull Distribution
Why Weibull ?
The most versatile
distribution in Reliability
Engineering because of its
ability to model a variety
distribution
Euler constant ( 𝑒 ) = 2.718281
Betta ( β ) = shape factor
β 𝑡β
R(t) = 𝑒 (−λ𝑡) = 𝑒 −θ = 1 – F(t)
𝑡 1
( )β = Ln
θ 1−𝐹(𝑡)
1
β Ln t – β Ln θ = Ln ( Ln ) β Ln θ = C
1−𝐹(𝑡)
MX + C = Y Ln θ = C/β
Θ = 𝑒 𝑐/β 2
Case Study 2: Life Time
Based on survey conducted in 6 refinery plant, boiler leak after certain time in operation (1537, 2190, 2750,
2799, 5118, 6205) days.
1. Calculate the probability of the HP boiler will still running after 10 years in operation ?
2. Base on the shape parameter (β) what is the best maintenance strategy ?
1.5
1 y = 1.9438x - 16.103
R² = 0.9212
0.5
0
7 7.5 8 8.5 9
-0.5
-1
-1.5
-2
-2.5 3
Case Study 2: Life Time
Based on survey conducted in 6 refinery plant, boiler leak after certain time in operation (1537, 2190, 2750,
2799, 5118, 6205) days.
1. Calculate the probability of the HP boiler will still running after 10 years in operation ?
2. Base on the shape parameter (β) what is the best maintenance strategy ?
R(t) Reliability
99%
98%
96%
95%
92%
90%
100%
87%
84%
81%
77%
74%
70%
80%
66%
62%
58%
55%
51%
60%
47%
44%
40%
37%
34%
31%
40%
28%
25%
23%
20%
18%
16%
14%
13%
11%
10%
20% 9%
7%
6%
6%
5%
4%
0%
0.5 1.5 2.5 3.5 4.5 5.5 6.5 7.5 8.5 9.5 10.5 11.5 12.5 13.5 14.5 15.5 16.5 17.5 18.5 19.5
4
Years